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Global projections of plastic use, end-of-life fate and potential changes in consumption, reduction, recycling and replacement with bioplastics to 2050 到 2050 年全球塑料使用量、报废转归以及在消费、减少、回收和用生物塑料替代方面的潜在变化预测
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.025
Monika Dokl , Anja Copot , Damjan Krajnc , Yee Van Fan , Annamaria Vujanović , Kathleen B. Aviso , Raymond R. Tan , Zdravko Kravanja , Lidija Čuček
Excessive production, indiscriminate consumption, and improper disposal of plastics have led to plastic pollution and its hazardous environmental effects. Various approaches to tackle the challenges of reducing the plastic footprint have been developed and applied, such as the production of alternative materials (design for recycling), the production and use of biodegradable plastic and plastics from power-to-X, and the development of recycling approaches. This study proposes an optimisation strategy based on regression to evaluate and predict plastic use and end-of-life fate in the future based on historical trends. The mathematical model is formulated and correlations based on functions of time are developed and optimised by minimising the sum of squared residuals. The plastic quantities up to the year 2050 are projected based on historical trends analysis, and for improved sustainability, projections are additionally based on intervention analyses. The results show that the global use of plastics is expected to increase from 464 Mt in 2020 up to 884 Mt in 2050, with up to 4725 Mt of plastics accumulated in stock in 2050 (from the year 2000). Compared to other available forecasts, a slightly lower level of plastic use and stock are obtained. The intervention analysis estimates a range of global plastics' consumption between 594 Mt and 1018 Mt in 2050 by taking into account its different increment rates (between −1 % and 2.65 %). In the packaging sector, the implementation of reduction targets (15 % reduction in 2040 compared to 2018) could lead to a 27.3 % decrease in plastic use in 2050 as compared to 2018, while achieving recycling targets (55 % in 2030) would recycle >75 % of plastic packaging in 2050. The partial substitution of fossil-based plastics with bioplastics (polyethylene) will require significant land area, between 0.2 × 106 km2 for obtaining switchgrass and up to around 1.0 × 106 km2 for obtaining forest residue (annual yields of 58.15 t/ha and 3.5 t/ha) in 2050. The intervention analysis shows that proactive policies can mitigate sustainability challenges, however achieving broader sustainability goals also requires reduction of footprints related to energy production and virgin plastic production, the production of bio-based plastics, and the full implementation of recycling initiatives.
塑料的过度生产、任意消费和不当处置导致了塑料污染及其对环境的危害。为应对减少塑料足迹的挑战,人们开发并应用了各种方法,如生产替代材料(循环利用设计)、生产和使用生物降解塑料和 "电转X "塑料,以及开发循环利用方法。本研究提出了一种基于回归的优化策略,根据历史趋势评估和预测未来塑料的使用和报废情况。通过最小化残差平方和,建立了数学模型和基于时间函数的相关性,并对其进行了优化。根据历史趋势分析预测了到 2050 年的塑料数量,为了提高可持续性,还根据干预分析进行了预测。结果显示,全球塑料使用量预计将从 2020 年的 4.64 亿吨增加到 2050 年的 8.84 亿吨,2050 年的塑料库存量将达到 4.725 亿吨(从 2000 年算起)。与其他现有预测相比,塑料使用量和库存量略低。考虑到不同的增长率(-1 % 到 2.65 %),干预分析估计 2050 年全球塑料消费量在 5.94 亿吨到 1.018 亿吨之间。在包装领域,实施减量目标(2040 年比 2018 年减少 15%)可使 2050 年的塑料使用量比 2018 年减少 27.3%,而实现回收目标(2030 年达到 55%)则可在 2050 年回收 75% 的塑料包装。到 2050 年,用生物塑料(聚乙烯)部分替代化石基塑料将需要大量的土地面积,获取开关草的土地面积在 0.2 × 106 平方公里之间,获取森林残留物的土地面积高达约 1.0 × 106 平方公里(年产量分别为 58.15 吨/公顷和 3.5 吨/公顷)。干预分析表明,积极的政策可以缓解可持续性挑战,但要实现更广泛的可持续性目标,还需要减少与能源生产和原始塑料生产、生物基塑料生产相关的足迹,并全面实施回收措施。
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引用次数: 0
What should be understood to promote environmentally sustainable diets? 如何理解促进环境可持续饮食?
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.10.001
Yinglei Wu , Kiyo Kurisu , Kensuke Fukushi
An environmentally sustainable diet plays an increasingly significant role in reducing environmental impacts from the consumer side. The prominent environmentally sustainable dietary choices that have been discussed in recent years include organic food, local seasonal food, protein alternatives, plant-based diets, sustainable packaging, sustainable cooking, sustainable storage, and food waste reduction. However, the majority of related studies have focused on only one single environmentally sustainable dietary choice, and comprehensive considerations of the environmental impacts, psychological factors, and practices related to different dietary choices are still limited. Thus, we take a broad perspective on this issue and aim to provide a theoretical foundation for policy makers and consumers to make environmentally friendly choices. This review aims to answer the following three questions: (1) Which dietary choices result in lower environmental burdens than conventional diets? (2) How do psychosocial factors influence environmentally sustainable dietary choices? (3) What interventions are effective in changing consumers' dietary choices? The results showed that there is a gap between the actual and perceived environmental impacts of dietary choices, including organic food, local seasonal food and food packages. Although transitioning from a meat-based diet to a plant-based one, reducing food waste, and adopting efficient cooking methods can bring considerable environmental benefits, barriers such as inconvenience, price, and neophobia significantly hinder behavior changes. Besides, the influence of environmental concern on most environmentally sustainable diets is weak, whereas health concern plays a significant role. In practice, a long-term change in dietary structure could be achieved by addressing cultural barriers and social norms, through the cooperation of governments, retailers, food producers, and consumers.
环境可持续饮食在减少消费者对环境的影响方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。近年来讨论的突出的环境可持续饮食选择包括有机食品、当地时令食品、蛋白质替代品、植物性饮食、可持续包装、可持续烹饪、可持续储存和减少食物浪费。然而,大多数相关研究只关注单一的环境可持续膳食选择,对不同膳食选择的环境影响、心理因素和相关做法的综合考虑仍然有限。因此,我们从广阔的视角来看待这一问题,旨在为政策制定者和消费者做出环境友好型选择提供理论基础。本综述旨在回答以下三个问题:(1) 与传统饮食相比,哪些饮食选择会降低环境负担? (2) 社会心理因素如何影响环境可持续饮食选择?(3) 哪些干预措施能有效改变消费者的饮食选择?研究结果表明,膳食选择(包括有机食品、当地时令食品和食品包装)对环境的实际影响和感知影响之间存在差距。虽然从肉类饮食过渡到植物饮食、减少食物浪费和采用高效烹饪方法能带来可观的环境效益,但不便、价格和恐新症等障碍极大地阻碍了行为改变。此外,环境因素对大多数环境可持续饮食的影响较弱,而健康因素则起着重要作用。实际上,通过政府、零售商、食品生产商和消费者的合作,解决文化障碍和社会规范问题,可以实现膳食结构的长期改变。
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引用次数: 0
Transitioning towards circular households: Exploring influential factors and constraints 向循环型家庭过渡:探索影响因素和制约因素
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.028
Alexandre Rodrigues da Silva, Tomás B. Ramos
The adoption of household circular economy practices is fundamental for sustainable consumption, yet this area remains underexplored, with individuals unaware of the societal impact they can make. While previous research has examined the drivers and barriers linked with the implementation of circular strategies in organizations, eco-industrial parks, and cities, there is limited understanding of the factors influencing household circular economy activities. Thus, the present work aims to identify what drives and inhibits individuals from fostering circular economy progress at the household level. This study is supported by a triangulation approach, combining an integrative literature review with the results derived from semi-structured interviews with householders. The literature review helped categorize the data obtained through the interviews, while outlining the existing theories. The findings of the interviews indicate that the drivers and barriers could vary between consumer stages – i.e., customer, user, end of life product holder. The householders can be negatively influenced by the lack of awareness, poor reputation, and a circular market offer with insufficient quality. The adoption process of circular economy-related practices depends on the attitude of each individual and can be driven by the possibility to reduce the cost of living, and the ability of the product to include digestible information, regarding its sustainability performance. Householders identified several recommendations that could promote circularity, such as implementing subsidies with reduced bureaucracy to alleviate initial financial pressures and improving transparency and disclosure of product sustainability (e.g., through a sustainability score). This research can capacitate policymakers and practitioners with insights into the factors that foster circular economic progress at the household level, outlining a structure tailored towards the desired consumer role.
采用家庭循环经济做法是可持续消费的基础,但这一领域仍未得到充分探索,个人并不了解他们可以产生的社会影响。以往的研究已经探讨了与组织、生态工业园区和城市实施循环战略相关的驱动因素和障碍,但对影响家庭循环经济活动的因素了解有限。因此,本研究旨在确定在家庭层面促进循环经济发展的驱动因素和阻碍因素。本研究采用三角测量法,将综合性文献综述与对住户的半结构式访谈结果相结合。文献综述有助于对通过访谈获得的数据进行分类,同时概述了现有理论。访谈结果表明,不同消费阶段--即客户、用户、终端产品持有者--的驱动因素和障碍可能不同。家庭用户可能会受到缺乏意识、声誉不佳以及循环市场提供的产品质量不足等因素的负面影响。采用循环经济相关做法的过程取决于每个人的态度,降低生活成本的可能性和产品包含可消化信息的能力都会推动采用循环经济相关做法。住户提出了几项可促进循环的建议,如实施补贴,减少官僚主义,以减轻最初的经济压力,提高产品可持续性的透明度和公开性(如通过可持续性评分)。这项研究可以帮助政策制定者和实践者深入了解在家庭层面促进循环经济发展的因素,勾勒出一种适合消费者角色的结构。
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引用次数: 0
Combining life cycle assessment and dynamic qualitative comparative analysis to analyze the environmental impacts of urban development across different provinces in China 结合生命周期评估和动态定性比较分析,分析中国不同省份城市发展对环境的影响
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.026
Xinxin Wang , Bingbing Zhang , Yong Qin , Zeshui Xu , Marinko Skare
Examining the environmental pollution landscape is a vital link for urban development. Across production, distribution, and usage stages of 24 provinces in China between 2010 and 2019, this study conducts Life Cycle Assessment and Dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis to explore the effects of conditional combination on environmental impact assessment indicators including Photochemical Oxidation, Eutrophication, Global Warming Potential, Human Toxicity, and Acidification. The results reveal that: (1) Shandong contributes most significantly to environmental impact assessment indicators in the production and distribution stages, while Inner Mongolia dominates the usage stage. In contrast, Beijing, Hainan, and Shanghai show lower contributions, though Hainan exhibits a rising trend in the Global Warming Potential index across all stages; (2) The production stage consistently accounts for the largest environmental impact, with notable differences in contributions from Beijing, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shanghai across the three stages; (3) Environmental impact is not driven by individual factors alone; rather, it is the combination of factors that proves influential. Complex nonlinear relationships are revealed between energy consumption patterns and environmental impacts in the production stage. The combination of transport operating distance and traffic volume has an interaction during the distribution stage. The usage stage leads only to the environmental impact of Eutrophication, which is caused by the resident population and ecological water consumption excluding residential water use. These findings present a new strategy for optimizing energy structure and water resource utilization, and emphasize the synergies to reduce the environmental impacts, providing instrumental implications for policymakers and government managers in environmental management and urbanization development.
考察环境污染状况是城市发展的重要环节。本研究采用生命周期评估和动态定性比较分析方法,探讨了 2010 年至 2019 年期间,中国 24 个省在生产、流通和使用阶段,条件组合对光化学氧化、富营养化、全球变暖潜势、人体毒性和酸化等环境影响评价指标的影响。结果表明(1) 山东在生产和流通阶段对环境影响评价指标的贡献最大,而内蒙古则在使用阶段占主导地位。相比之下,北京、海南和上海的贡献率较低,但海南的全球变暖潜势指数在所有阶段都呈上升趋势;(2) 生产阶段对环境的影响最大,而北京、宁夏、内蒙古和上海在三个阶段的贡献率存在明显差异;(3) 环境影响并非由单个因素单独驱动,而是综合因素的影响。生产阶段的能源消耗模式与环境影响之间存在复杂的非线性关系。在配送阶段,运输作业距离和运输量的组合会产生相互作用。使用阶段仅导致富营养化的环境影响,而富营养化是由常住人口和生态用水(不包括居民用水)造成的。这些研究结果提出了优化能源结构和水资源利用的新策略,强调了减少环境影响的协同作用,为决策者和政府管理者在环境管理和城市化发展方面提供了有益的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Incorporating embodied carbon transfer and sequestration service flows into regional carbon neutrality assessment in China 将体现碳转移和固碳服务流纳入中国区域碳中和评估
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.10.003
Henghui Xi , Xiaodan Liu , Xue Ding , Conghong Huang , Yu Tao , Qin Tao , Jiman Li , Xianbo Cheng , Fei Wang , Weixin Ou
Reliable and effective carbon neutrality assessments are crucial prerequisites for implementing various low-carbon policies and achieving carbon neutrality goals. Although the impact of embodied carbon transfer and carbon sequestration service flows on regional carbon neutrality is becoming increasingly significant, these factors are not effectively incorporated into current carbon neutrality assessments. Based on a thorough review of the literature and theoretical analysis, this study attempts to construct a regional carbon neutrality assessment framework that incorporates embodied carbon transfer and carbon sequestration service flows. This framework is then applied to assess carbon neutrality and its influencing factors in China's provinces. Our findings reveal that carbon emissions and sequestration capacities have increased across Chinese provinces, with the highest emissions in North and East China, and the highest sequestration in Southwest China. Economically developed provinces like Beijing, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu transfer substantial embodied carbon to provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Hebei, while Guangxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Qinghai are major providers of carbon sequestration services. Carbon neutrality levels in Chinese provinces show a ring-shaped distribution, increasing from the inner to outer rings. Higher levels are found in Southwest and Northwest provinces (e.g., Yunnan, Qinghai, Guangxi), and lower levels in North and East provinces (e.g., Shanxi, Beijing, Zhejiang). Factors like urbanization rate, population density, per capita GDP, and energy consumption structure negatively impact carbon neutrality levels, whereas ecological land area and annual precipitation have positive impacts. In summary, incorporating embodied carbon transfer and carbon sequestration service flows into the regional carbon neutrality assessment framework facilitates a more comprehensive analysis of regional carbon neutrality levels and their influencing factors. This approach broadens the theoretical and methodological scope of regional carbon neutrality assessments and provides scientific references for the implementation of low-carbon policies and the advancement of carbon neutrality goals.
可靠有效的碳中和评估是实施各种低碳政策和实现碳中和目标的重要前提。尽管体现碳转移和碳封存服务流对区域碳中和的影响日益显著,但这些因素并未被有效纳入当前的碳中和评估中。基于对文献的深入研究和理论分析,本研究试图构建一个包含体现碳转移和碳封存服务流的区域碳中和评估框架。然后将该框架应用于评估中国各省的碳中和及其影响因素。我们的研究结果表明,中国各省的碳排放量和碳封存能力都有所提高,其中华北和华东地区的碳排放量最高,西南地区的碳封存能力最高。北京、浙江和江苏等经济发达省份向内蒙古、山西和河北等省份转移了大量的体现碳,而广西、四川、云南和青海则是碳封存服务的主要提供者。中国各省的碳中和水平呈环状分布,由内环向外环递增。西南和西北省份(如云南、青海、广西)碳中和水平较高,华北和华东省份(如山西、北京、浙江)碳中和水平较低。城市化率、人口密度、人均 GDP 和能源消费结构等因素对碳中和水平有负面影响,而生态用地面积和年降水量则有正面影响。总之,将体现碳转移和碳封存服务流纳入区域碳中和评估框架,有助于更全面地分析区域碳中和水平及其影响因素。这种方法拓宽了区域碳中和评估的理论和方法范围,为实施低碳政策和推进碳中和目标提供了科学参考。
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引用次数: 0
A composite indicator for evaluating safety and sustainability by design and circularity in emerging technologies 通过设计和循环评估新兴技术安全性和可持续性的综合指标
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.027
Ana Arias , Marco Cinelli , Maria Teresa Moreira , Stefano Cucurachi
The application of the Safe-and-Sustainable-by-Design (SSbD) framework to emerging technologies (i.e. chemicals, bio-based products and other related materials manufacturing processes) faces significant challenges due to the limited data availability of these processes and because their level of optimization and implementation is less developed compared to traditional production models. However, the transition to the circular economy must be based on safer, more efficient and sustainable production models. In this research article, a robust methodology that accurately assesses the sustainable and circular potential of these processes is developed. This methodology proposes a new composite indicator (CI-SSbDC) based on the European Commission SSbD (EC-SSbD) framework guidelines. CI-SSbDC assesses safety, sustainability and circularity, and can be applied to bio-based and fossil-based products and technologies. The CI-SSbDC indicator ranges from 0.01 to 1, where “0.01” indicates the least promising option and “1” the most promising one. To examine how different levels of compensation influence the composite indicator value, several aggregation methods were used, including additive, geometric and harmonic means. The composite indicator was applied to three production variants for the same product, to demonstrate its effectiveness and potential, including also sensitivity analysis to test the influence of the assumptions made in the methodology. Despite the ongoing development of the EC-SSbD framework, the proposed composite indicator serves as a practical initial approach to put it into practice, integrating the critical circularity pillar essential for the bioeconomy and aligning with waste management strategies and life cycle analysis methodologies. Also, it could serve as a first guide to highlight where to focus efforts on for an effective implementation of SSbD and circularity frameworks.
由于新兴技术(即化学品、生物基产品和其他相关材料制造工艺)的数据有限,而且与传统生产模式相比,这些工艺的优化和实施水平较低,因此将设计安全与可持续发展(SSbD)框架应用于新兴技术面临着巨大挑战。然而,向循环经济的过渡必须建立在更安全、更高效和更可持续的生产模式基础之上。在这篇研究文章中,我们开发了一种稳健的方法来准确评估这些工艺的可持续和循环潜力。该方法以欧盟委员会 SSbD(EC-SSbD)框架指南为基础,提出了一个新的综合指标(CI-SSbDC)。CI-SSbDC 对安全性、可持续性和循环性进行评估,可应用于生物基和化石基产品和技术。CI-SSbDC 指标范围从 0.01 到 1,其中 "0.01 "表示最不可行的方案,"1 "表示最可行的方案。为了研究不同补偿水平对综合指标值的影响,使用了几种汇总方法,包括加法、几何和调和均值。综合指标适用于同一产品的三种生产变体,以证明其有效性和潜力,还包括敏感性分析,以测试方法中的假设的影响。尽管 EC-SSbD 框架仍在不断发展,但所提出的综合指标是将其付诸实践的一个切实可行的初步方法,它整合了对生物经济至关重要的循环性支柱,并与废物管理战略和生命周期分析方法保持一致。此外,它还可以作为第一份指南,突出有效实施 SSbD 和循环性框架的工作重点。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the impact range of circular economy actions for buildings on basic material demand in the European Union: A combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches 估算欧盟建筑循环经济行动对基本材料需求的影响范围:定性与定量相结合的方法
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.10.002
Meta Thurid Lotz , Jesús Rosales Carreón , Ernst Worrell , Andrea Herbst , Maksymilian Kochański , Katarzyna Korczak
A circular economy in buildings can contribute to reduce the demand for emission-intensive basic materials and thus, to achieve the climate targets of the European Union. However, quantifying the impact on material demand is challenged by the unpredictability of the future. We combined qualitative and quantitative approaches to improve the understanding of such future developments. In detail, expert interviews were conducted to identify influencing factors and to collect estimates for modelling prospective material demand. The results indicate that the adaption is driven by existing and new policies, climate change as well as demographics. This is contrasted by barriers, such as the economic non-viability, the limited availability of substitutes, and the mismatch of supply and demand as well as building regulations. Moreover, the type of influencing factor reflects the maturity of individual strategies related to a circular economy. The estimated impact of circular economy actions on annual material demand for buildings varies between −42 % and +25 % in 2050 compared to a reference development. However, there are not only differences between but also within individual actions. In brief, the maturity of the circular economy actions is reflected by the range of impact on material demand. The novel combination of the qualitative influencing factors and the quantitative modelling results reveals an interrelationship between the drivers and barriers and the impact on material demand. This underlines that the prospective exploitation of these potentials can be actively influenced by adapting the policy framework conditions. This is particularly relevant for less renowned circular economy strategies and actions that are characterized by high potential and high unpredictability. The presented results lay the foundation for a more systematic consideration of material reduction potentials related to a circular economy in prospective scenarios of buildings in the European Union.
建筑循环经济有助于减少对排放密集型基础材料的需求,从而实现欧盟的气候目标。然而,由于未来的不可预测性,量化对材料需求的影响面临挑战。我们将定性和定量方法相结合,以加深对未来发展的理解。具体而言,我们对专家进行了访谈,以确定影响因素,并收集用于模拟未来材料需求的估计值。结果表明,现有的和新的政策、气候变化以及人口统计因素都推动了适应性的发展。与此形成鲜明对比的是各种障碍,如经济上的不可行性、替代品的有限可用性、供需不匹配以及建筑法规。此外,影响因素的类型也反映了与循环经济相关的各项战略的成熟度。与参考发展相比,循环经济行动对 2050 年建筑材料年需求量的影响估计介于 -42 % 和 +25 % 之间。然而,不仅各个行动之间存在差异,各个行动内部也存在差异。简而言之,循环经济行动的成熟度体现在对材料需求的影响范围上。定性影响因素和定量建模结果的新颖结合揭示了驱动因素和障碍与对材料需求的影响之间的相互关系。这突出表明,可以通过调整政策框架条件来积极影响这些潜力的开发前景。这一点对于知名度较低的循环经济战略和行动尤为重要,这些战略和行动的特点是高潜力和高不可预测性。本文介绍的结果为更系统地考虑欧盟建筑未来方案中与循环经济相关的材料削减潜力奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions aligned with global energy transition: Scenarios of elements use 减少温室气体(GHG)排放,与全球能源转型保持一致:要素使用情景
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.011
Atieh Fahimi Bandpey , Saeed Rahimpour , Andrzej Kraslawski
Several proposed technologies (e.g., renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS)) to reduce GHG emissions face significant challenges like accessing critical raw materials. This study assesses the demand for 29 mineral elements in technologies. A dynamic material flow analysis model was applied to examine five global climate change mitigation scenarios to 2050. The scenarios selected are the Net Zero Emission (NZE), 1.5 °C, Announced Pledges (AP) and Stated Policy (STEP) for the year 2022, and the Sustainable Development (SD) for the year 2021. The results show that demand for tellurium will increase and cumulatively exceed current reserves in the AP, SD, NZE and 1.5 °C scenarios from 2022 to 2050, and demand for indium and cobalt will exceed reserves in NZE and 1.5 °C scenarios. In the STEP scenario, elements will not face shortages. The findings indicate that specific technology choices, such as the high use of thin-film solar photovoltaic (PV), can significantly impact demand for particular elements like tellurium. The results demonstrate that the selection of the technology and scenario for GHG mitigation considerably impacts element consumption. The novelty of this work consists of its supply-efficient approach to the element demand for technology in different energy sectors including in the energy generation, distribution, storage, and consumption sectors in each recent scenario. The results presented in this study could assist policymakers in the selection of technological solutions for climate change mitigation.
一些旨在减少温室气体排放的拟议技术(如可再生能源和碳捕集与封存 (CCS))面临着重大挑战,如获取关键原材料。本研究评估了各种技术对 29 种矿物元素的需求。研究采用动态材料流分析模型,对 2050 年前的五种全球气候变化减缓情景进行了研究。所选情景为净零排放(NZE)、1.5 °C、2022 年的宣布承诺(AP)和既定政策(STEP),以及 2021 年的可持续发展(SD)。结果表明,从 2022 年到 2050 年,在 "宣布承诺"、"声明政策"、"可持续发展 "和 "1.5 ℃"情景下,对碲的需求将增加并累计超过现有储量;在 "宣布承诺 "和 "声明政策 "情景下,对铟和钴的需求将超过储量。在 STEP 情景中,元素不会短缺。研究结果表明,特定技术的选择,如薄膜太阳能光伏技术的大量使用,会对碲等特定元素的需求产生重大影响。结果表明,温室气体减排技术和方案的选择会对元素的消耗产生重大影响。这项工作的新颖之处在于,它采用了供应效率方法来计算不同能源部门对技术的元素需求,包括最近每种情景下的能源生产、分配、储存和消费部门。本研究提出的结果有助于决策者选择减缓气候变化的技术解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Income-based environmental effects of family food consumption and the affordability towards healthy diets 家庭食品消费对环境的收入影响以及健康饮食的可负担性
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.019
Jingwen Kou , Weijing Ma , Xiaoya Wang , Chengyi Li , Tingting Liang
Environmentally sustainable diets are attracting increasing attention, but the environmental impact of diets with different income residents is still poorly understood. Based on the environmental footprint method, we explored the environmental impact of food consumption in China from 2000 to 2020, and used the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model to investigate its driving factors. Furthermore, we constructed a multi-objective optimization model, incorporating the affordability indicator, to optimize a healthy diet pattern. The results show that: (1) The food diversity index (FDI) was directly proportional to income, and geographically, the FDIs of economically developed provinces were higher than that of economically developing provinces. (2) The environmental footprint caused by food consumption was gradually increasing, with 60 % of the carbon footprint of low-income residents coming from grain and pork. (3) Dietary affordability was a major factor in increasing environmental footprint. High-income residents had greater access to milk, meat, etc., which had a greater negative environmental impact. We put forward suggestions on dietary optimization and affordability for different income residents, with a view to achieving nutritional and healthy diets of Chinese while generating minimum resource and environmental load, and promoting the transformation of the agro-food system.
环境可持续膳食正受到越来越多的关注,但人们对不同收入居民的膳食对环境的影响仍知之甚少。基于环境足迹方法,我们探讨了 2000 年至 2020 年中国食品消费对环境的影响,并使用对数平均膳食指数(LMDI)模型研究了其驱动因素。此外,我们还构建了一个多目标优化模型,结合可负担性指标来优化健康饮食模式。结果表明(1)食物多样性指数(FDI)与收入成正比,从地域上看,经济发达省份的食物多样性指数高于经济发展中省份。(2)食物消费造成的环境足迹逐渐增加,低收入居民碳足迹的 60% 来自粮食和猪肉。 3)膳食负担能力是环境足迹增加的主要因素。高收入居民更容易获得牛奶、肉类等,这些食物对环境的负面影响更大。我们提出了针对不同收入居民的膳食优化和可负担性建议,以期在实现中国人营养健康膳食的同时,产生最小的资源和环境负荷,促进农业食品体系的转型。
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引用次数: 0
Circular economy and the separated yet inseparable social dimension: Views from European circular city experts 循环经济与分离但不可分割的社会层面:欧洲循环型城市专家的观点
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.016
Kang Liu
Circular economy has received significant attention worldwide for its potential to reconcile ecological limits and economic development. Europe, in particular, has made it a policy focus for achieving its climate ambitions. However, to date, the circular economy remains a loosely defined concept with competing discourses of technocentrism and holistic societal transformation. As the former prevails, its neglect of the social dimension raises concerns about the circular economy's social sustainability and feasibility. Therefore, this study explores how the relationship between the circular economy and the social dimension is perceived by experts directly engaged in the current circular transition process. By uncovering their experiences and perceptions, this study aims to offer empirical insights for the future development of the circular economy. Through qualitatively exploring the views of 14 experts across 11 European cities with a clear circular vision, this study found that although the social dimension is not a primary focus or fundamentally connected with the circular economy, it plays a fundamental role in the transition process and is simultaneously an impacted area. However, there is a significant gap between the ideal social environment required for circular transition and what the current transition can facilitate. As such, the future of the circular economy may be precarious unless it shifts from a technocentric tendency to more holistic, transformational approaches.
循环经济因其兼顾生态限制和经济发展的潜力而受到全世界的广泛关注。欧洲尤其将其作为实现气候目标的政策重点。然而,迄今为止,循环经济仍然是一个定义松散的概念,存在着技术中心主义和整体社会转型两种相互竞争的论调。由于前者占主导地位,其对社会层面的忽视引发了人们对循环经济的社会可持续性和可行性的担忧。因此,本研究探讨了直接参与当前循环转型进程的专家如何看待循环经济与社会层面之间的关系。通过了解他们的经验和看法,本研究旨在为循环经济的未来发展提供经验性见解。通过对欧洲 11 个具有明确循环愿景的城市的 14 位专家的观点进行定性探讨,本研究发现,尽管社会层面不是循环经济的主要关注点或与循环经济没有根本联系,但它在转型过程中发挥着根本性作用,同时也是一个受影响的领域。然而,循环转型所需的理想社会环境与当前转型所能促进的社会环境之间存在巨大差距。因此,循环经济的未来可能岌岌可危,除非它从以技术为中心的倾向转向更全面的转型方法。
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引用次数: 0
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Sustainable Production and Consumption
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