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Analysis of water-carbon spatiotemporal linkages and potential carbon neutrality benefits in China at the regional-industrial composite scale based on virtual water trade 基于虚拟水交易的区域-产业复合尺度下中国水碳时空联系及潜在碳中和效益分析

IF 9.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2025.09.005

Yaowen Xu , Shize Xia , Zhengwei Zhang , Yuyang Li , Mo Li

The interregional grain trade system fosters a complex water‑carbon coupled network, which exacerbates spatial disparities in both water allocation and carbon transfer. Previous studies focused on the virtual water trade's role in food security and agricultural water use but overlooked inter-industry “water–carbon” transfer mechanisms. This study pioneers two innovative metrics: Virtual water flow spillover efficiency and potential carbon neutrality benefit, thereby expanding the analytical perspective to unravel the interregional water‑carbon flow mechanisms within regions. This study constructs a spatiotemporal analytical framework for China's grain-related virtual water‑carbon flows at a regional-industrial nexus scale by integrating social equity principles with an optimized minimum cost maximum flow algorithm. And establishes a synergistic optimization methodology for “regional carbon reduction - water use efficiency enhancement”, enabling precise identification of dual optimization pathways for resource-environment systems. Results reveal that China's virtual water flow for rice, wheat, and corn increased by 18.2 %, and virtual carbon flow increased by 18.3 % totally. The northeast emerged as a major virtual water exporter, while coastal provinces shifted toward net import status, exacerbating regional water disparities. This study illuminates the substantial carbon benefits arising from intra-industrial resource restructuring triggered by regional grain trade. These benefits far surpass previous estimates derived solely from interregional carbon emission reductions, thereby challenging the conventional accounting framework for its systemic underestimation of grain trade's carbon mitigation potential. Critical pathways, notably Hebei-Tianjin and Shanxi-Guangdong, were identified as dual resource-environment optima. These pathways facilitate water‑carbon constructive collaboration within large-scale agricultural trade systems, thereby providing actionable strategies for sustainable food-water‑carbon nexus management.

区域间粮食贸易体系形成了复杂的水碳耦合网络，加剧了水分配和碳转移的空间差异。以往的研究主要关注虚拟水交易在粮食安全和农业用水中的作用，但忽视了行业间“水-碳”转移机制。本研究提出了虚拟水流溢出效率和潜在碳中和效益两个创新指标，从而拓展了分析视角，揭示了区域间水碳流动机制。本研究将社会公平原则与优化的最小成本最大流量算法相结合，构建了区域-产业联系尺度下中国粮食相关虚拟水碳流的时空分析框架。建立了“区域减碳-提高水利用效率”的协同优化方法，实现了资源环境系统双优化路径的精准识别。结果表明，中国水稻、小麦和玉米的虚拟水流量增加了18.2%，虚拟碳流量增加了18.3%。东北成为主要的虚拟水出口国，而沿海省份则转向净进口，加剧了区域水资源差距。本研究阐明了由区域粮食贸易引发的产业内资源重组所带来的巨大碳效益。这些效益远远超过以往仅从区域间碳减排中得出的估计，从而挑战了传统核算框架对粮食贸易碳减排潜力的系统性低估。关键路径以冀津和晋粤为双资源环境最优。这些途径促进了大规模农业贸易体系内的水碳建设性合作，从而为可持续的粮食-水-碳关系管理提供了可行的战略。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating planetary boundaries into safe and sustainable by design framework: A systematic literature review 通过设计框架将地球边界整合为安全和可持续：系统的文献综述

IF 9.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2025.09.004

Zien Hussein , Enrico Benetto , Michael Saidani

The paradigm shift in understanding Earth system limits and the definition of a safe operating space has underscored the need for absolute environmental sustainability. While the European Commission's Safe and Sustainable by Design (SSbD) framework sets a direction for sustainability-oriented innovation, it currently lacks operational guidance on implementing planetary boundaries (PBs) at the design level. This systematic literature review assesses the state of Absolute Environmental Sustainability Assessment (AESA) methods for defining PB thresholds and evaluates their applicability within SSbD contexts. The findings reveal that although progress has been made in linking Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) with PBs, current applications remain commonly at the meso-scale, and disconnected from low-TRL technologies and material/component-level decision-making. Key gaps persist in carrying capacity allocation, operationalization of underrepresented boundaries such as novel entities, and prospective modeling. To bridge these gaps, the study identifies four integration requirements: (1) embedding PBs from the earliest TRL stages, (2) aligning assessments with systemic design logic and developing performance-based allocation methods, (3) developing a composite carrying capacity indicator as an intermediate functional unit, and (4) incorporating scenario-based and temporal modeling to reflect the dynamic context of technology emergence. Together, these requirements lay the foundation for a structured, forward-oriented workflow to support actionable PB integration into SSbD.

在理解地球系统极限和安全操作空间定义方面的范式转变强调了绝对环境可持续性的必要性。虽然欧盟委员会的安全与可持续设计（SSbD）框架为以可持续为导向的创新设定了方向，但它目前缺乏在设计层面实施地球边界（PBs）的操作指导。这篇系统的文献综述评估了用于定义PB阈值的绝对环境可持续性评估（AESA）方法的现状，并评估了它们在SSbD背景下的适用性。研究结果表明，尽管在将生命周期评估（LCA）与PBs联系起来方面取得了进展，但目前的应用仍然普遍停留在中尺度，与低trl技术和材料/组件级决策脱节。关键的差距仍然存在于承载能力分配、未充分代表的边界（如新实体）的操作化和前瞻性建模。为了弥补这些差距，研究确定了四个集成需求：(1)从最早的TRL阶段嵌入PBs；(2)将评估与系统设计逻辑结合起来，开发基于性能的分配方法；(3)开发复合承载能力指标作为中间功能单元；(4)结合基于场景和时间的建模，以反映技术出现的动态背景。总之，这些需求为结构化的、面向前的工作流奠定了基础，以支持可操作的PB集成到SSbD中。

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引用次数: 0

Unpacking policy coherence: A network analysis of the EU policy mix for the circular economy 拆解政策一致性：欧盟循环经济政策组合的网络分析

IF 9.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2025.09.003

Vasileios Rizos , Valeria Zambianchi

Policy coherence is a sought-after characteristic in cross-sectoral sustainability transformations. Despite the wealth of research on policy mixes and the urgent need to advance environmental sustainability in production and consumption cycles, only a limited number of studies empirically examine policy coherence in practice within policy mixes for the circular economy. To address this gap, our paper unpacks the EU's circular economy policy mix as a system of linked policies whose policy coherence is experienced by actors in the circular economy space, specifically in the electronics and ICT, batteries, automotive and critical raw materials sectors. The circular economy is an important area for studying policy coherence because it has been subject to a significant increase in policy adoption, all while the mainstreaming of circular economy practices remains insufficient at the EU level. Combining a top-down and bottom-up approach to populate the policy mix, we use network analysis to assess the synergies and conflicts among the policies in the mix through the surveyed experiences of 36 business actors. We find that on average the EU's circular economy policy mix exhibits a medium-to-high average degree of coherence. At the same time, however, our results show that the coherence between policies is not uniform within the mix as there is a diverse degree of coherence among its policies. Looking closely into inter-policy coherence reveals several cases of medium-to-low coherence. Moreover, our results indicate that the EU's policy mix for the circular economy lacks clusters of policies, which reduces the resilience of the policy mix to external shocks. We conclude that more emphasis should be given to aligning the objectives of EU circular economy, industrial and climate policies, and to providing a coherent set of requirements for EU businesses.

政策一致性是跨部门可持续性转型所追求的特征。尽管对政策组合进行了大量研究，迫切需要提高生产和消费周期中的环境可持续性，但只有有限数量的研究从经验上考察了循环经济政策组合实践中的政策一致性。为了解决这一差距，我们的论文将欧盟的循环经济政策组合分解为一个相互关联的政策体系，其政策一致性由循环经济领域的参与者体验，特别是在电子和信息通信技术、电池、汽车和关键原材料领域。循环经济是研究政策一致性的一个重要领域，因为它受到政策采纳的显著增加的影响，而在欧盟层面，循环经济实践的主流化仍然不足。结合自上而下和自下而上的方法来填充政策组合，我们通过对36个业务参与者的调查经验，使用网络分析来评估组合中政策之间的协同作用和冲突。我们发现，平均而言，欧盟的循环经济政策组合表现出中等到高度的平均一致性。然而，与此同时，我们的结果表明，政策之间的一致性在混合中并不统一，因为其政策之间存在不同程度的一致性。仔细观察政策间的一致性，就会发现几个中低一致性的例子。此外，我们的研究结果表明，欧盟的循环经济政策组合缺乏政策集群，这降低了政策组合对外部冲击的抵御能力。我们的结论是，应该更加重视协调欧盟循环经济、工业和气候政策的目标，并为欧盟企业提供一套连贯的要求。

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引用次数: 0

Peaking in pieces? Decoding the carbon peak dynamics of Chinese cities 支离破碎？解读中国城市碳峰值动态

IF 9.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Pub Date : 2025-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2025.09.001

He Huang , Jinlei Ma , Hongyu Liu , Jingke Hong

Understanding the diverse carbon peaking pathways of different cities are critically important for achieving China's dual carbon goals. To address data limitations, this study introduces a novel Data Alignment Technique to compile the most comprehensive historical carbon emission dataset of 329 Chinese cities from 1992 to 2023. The dynamics of carbon peak—including trajectories, timelines, and driving factors are systematically analysed by integrating machine learning techniques and econometrics models. The findings include: (1) The carbon peaking process at the city level in China was fragmented and asynchronous, as evidenced by the distribution of 213 Non-Peak Cities (64.74 %), 84 Pre-Peak Cities (25.53 %), and 32 Post-Peak Cities (9.73 %). (2) Peak Cities have formed nine distinct carbon peak clusters across the country, primarily driven by the spillover effects of technological innovation and regulatory policies. (3) Emissions in Peak Cities were reduced in stages: first, by energy structure optimization (1995–1999), thereafter, by technological innovation (2005–2019), and recently, by policy regulation and industrial restructuring (2020−2022). (4) The marginal effects of green technology, policy regulation and industrial structure adjustment on carbon exhibited the greatest variability among Non-Peak Cities, with only half of them achieving emission reduction benefits from these measures. These findings underscore the urgent need for coordinated, yet differentiated, climate efforts, particularly to facilitate technological diffusion and enhance policy synergy within the city agglomerations.

了解不同城市不同的碳峰值路径对于实现中国的双碳目标至关重要。为了解决数据的局限性，本研究引入了一种新颖的数据对齐技术，编制了1992 - 2023年中国329个城市最全面的历史碳排放数据集。通过整合机器学习技术和计量经济学模型，系统地分析了碳峰值的动态，包括轨迹、时间线和驱动因素。结果表明：(1)中国城市碳峰值过程具有碎片化和非同步的特征，非峰值城市213个（64.74%），峰值前城市84个（25.53%），峰值后城市32个（9.73%）。②峰值城市在全国范围内形成了9个不同的碳峰值集群，其主要驱动因素是技术创新和监管政策的溢出效应。③高峰城市的减排分阶段进行：首先是能源结构优化（1995-1999年），其次是技术创新（2005-2019年），最近是政策调控和产业结构调整（2020 - 2022年）。(4)绿色技术、政策调控和产业结构调整对碳排放的边际效应在非峰值城市中表现出最大的变异性，只有一半的城市从这些措施中获得了减排效益。这些发现强调了迫切需要协调但有区别的气候努力，特别是促进技术扩散和加强城市群内的政策协同作用。

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引用次数: 0

The sustainability scale-up framework: A tool to design scale-up strategies for sustainable businesses 可持续发展规模扩大框架：为可持续企业设计规模扩大战略的工具

IF 9.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2025.08.021

Anshuman Panigrahi, Shahrokh Nikou, Giulia Calabretta

Sustainable Business Model (SBM) is a strategic approach that integrates sustainability into the core operations and values of organisations. However, scaling SBMs remains a significant challenge due to resource constraints, operational inefficiencies, and stakeholder complexities, emphasising the need for structured frameworks to facilitate this process. This paper introduces the Sustainability Scale-Up Framework (SSF), a comprehensive tool explicitly developed through a design approach to help businesses scale their operations while maintaining alignment with environmental, social, and economic sustainability principles. The SSF was developed iteratively through an extensive literature review, and semi-structured interviews with experts and practitioners of sustainable startups. The SSF's layered structure systematically addresses value creation, operational scalability, stakeholder engagement, and strategic alignment, uniquely integrating value tensions across economic, social, and environmental dimensions to guide the scaling of SBMs. The SSF was validated through a business case workshop where its practical utility based on parameters like usability, flexibility, coherence, and applicability were examined. This paper contributes to SBM, scalability, and strategic design literature by offering insights through a vision-driven framework, providing a novel methodological approach to integrate strategic design principles into scaling processes, and delivering practical tools for businesses, and policymakers to foster sustainable growth for achieving transformative impact.

可持续商业模式（SBM）是一种将可持续发展融入组织核心业务和价值观的战略方法。然而，由于资源限制、操作效率低下和利益相关者的复杂性，扩展SBMs仍然是一个重大挑战，强调需要结构化框架来促进这一过程。本文介绍了可持续发展规模扩大框架（SSF），这是一个通过设计方法开发的综合性工具，旨在帮助企业扩大运营规模，同时保持与环境、社会和经济可持续性原则的一致性。SSF是通过广泛的文献回顾和对可持续创业专家和实践者的半结构化访谈来迭代开发的。SSF的分层结构系统地解决了价值创造、运营可扩展性、利益相关者参与和战略一致性问题，独特地整合了经济、社会和环境维度上的价值紧张关系，以指导sbm的规模。SSF通过一个业务案例研讨会进行了验证，在该研讨会上，基于可用性、灵活性、一致性和适用性等参数对其实际效用进行了检查。本文对SBM、可扩展性和战略设计文献做出了贡献，通过愿景驱动的框架提供了见解，提供了一种新的方法方法，将战略设计原则整合到扩展过程中，并为企业和政策制定者提供了实用工具，以促进可持续增长，实现变革影响。

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引用次数: 0

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics and uncertainty in life cycle assessment of agricultural systems 农业系统生命周期评估中土壤有机碳动态与不确定性建模

IF 9.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2025.09.002

Awais Mahmood , Hafiz Usman Ghani , Ilkka Leinonen , Shabbir H. Gheewala

ISO 14067:2018 mandates accounting for land use and land use change (LULUC) impacts on global warming impact due to carbon stock changes in living biomass, litter, dead organic matter, and soil organic carbon (SOC). Furthermore, the SOC changes are particularly relevant for cropland-based products. Despite methodological advancements, there is still no universally agreed-upon approach on how to evaluate LULUC-related global warming impact within Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), highlighting the need for a standardized approach. This study presents a comprehensive method for assessing SOC dynamics due to land use in LCA, incorporating uncertainties associated with model-based estimations. Using the Tier-2 IPCC Steady State Soil Carbon model, the study analyzed SOC changes in sugarcane cultivation on mineral soils in Thailand. The study examined the effects of land use history across different study periods (T-20, T-50, and T-100 years), as well as the impact of land management practices (full-, reduced-, and no-tillage) and residue management strategies (100 % burnt, 100 % retained, and mixed) on SOC change. While the model study period considerably influenced the initial SOC stocks, the variations in soil organic carbon stock change due to study periods, land management, and residue management practices were statistically not significant. However, the model-associated uncertainties were found to be substantial. The distribution fit assessment revealed that CO₂ emission/removal related flow follows a normal distribution [X ~ N (μ, σ²)]. Our findings highlighted the importance of incorporating ∆SOC into carbon footprint calculations to accurately capture the carbon sequestration potential of soils, which can significantly offset emissions. Neglecting SOC dynamics may lead to an overestimation of CO₂ emissions and an incomplete assessment of net carbon impact. Therefore, given the significant variations observed in global warming impact, integrating SOC considerations into LCAs is essential for improving the precision of environmental evaluations of agriculture-based products.

ISO 14067:2018要求考虑土地利用和土地利用变化（LULUC）对全球变暖影响的影响，这是由于活生物量、凋落物、死有机质和土壤有机碳（SOC）的碳储量变化。此外，SOC变化与基于农田的产品特别相关。尽管方法上取得了进步，但对于如何在生命周期评估（LCA）中评估luluc相关的全球变暖影响，仍然没有普遍认可的方法，这突出了标准化方法的必要性。本研究提出了一种综合评估LCA土地利用引起的有机碳动态的方法，包括与基于模型的估算相关的不确定性。采用Tier-2 IPCC稳态土壤碳模型，分析了泰国矿质土壤中甘蔗种植过程中有机碳的变化。该研究考察了不同研究时期（T-20、T-50和T-100年）土地利用历史的影响，以及土地管理实践（全面、减少和免耕）和残留物管理策略（100%燃烧、100%保留和混合）对土壤有机碳变化的影响。模型研究时段对土壤有机碳储量的影响较大，但不同研究时段、土地管理方式和秸秆管理方式对土壤有机碳储量的影响不显著。然而，发现与模式相关的不确定性是相当大的。分布拟合评价表明，CO2排放/去除相关流量服从正态分布[X ~ N (μ, σ2)]。我们的研究结果强调了将∆SOC纳入碳足迹计算的重要性，以准确捕获土壤的碳固存潜力，这可以显著抵消排放。忽视有机碳动态可能导致对二氧化碳排放量的高估和对净碳影响的不完整评估。因此，考虑到全球变暖影响的显著变化，将有机碳考虑纳入LCAs对于提高农产品环境评价的精度至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Unlocking BECCS viability through monetizing societal benefits by techno-socio-economic assessment 通过技术-社会经济评估将社会效益货币化，解锁BECCS的可行性

IF 9.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Pub Date : 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2025.08.016

Alberto Almena , Vahid Ghorbani Pashakolaie , Mariano Martin

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered a key technology for achieving the net-zero emissions target by simultaneously delivering net-negative emissions and usable energy. However, large-scale deployment remains limited due to its poor investment attractiveness. Traditional Techno-Economic Assessments (TEA), even when accounting for carbon credits revenue, show that BECCS systems are not financially competitive with conventional or renewable energy sources. This study introduces a Techno-Socio-Economic Assessment (TSEA) framework that integrates overlooked societal benefits, such as indirect emission displacement and job creation, by monetising them through the social cost of carbon (SC) and the opportunity cost of labour. A case study evaluates a wheat-straw-fuelled combined heat and power BECCS facility operating under three strategies: electricity and heat cogeneration, carbon credit maximization, and electricity maximization. Conventional TEA results show negative profitability (NPV = −$460 million) and reveal that carbon credit prices must exceed $240/tCO₂ for the levelized cost of electricity to reach parity with renewable energies. Under the TSEA framework, all configurations become profitable with the electricity-maximizing mode reaching an NPV of $2.28 billion. Sensitivity analysis highlights profitability's strong dependence on the assumed social cost of carbon, underscoring the uncertainty and policy sensitivity of BECCS economics. These findings underscore the need to recognize and monetise BECCS's full societal value. Future policies must determine who bears the cost of carbon damages and must establish mechanisms to ensure stakeholders are fairly compensated for the broader social benefits delivered by BECCS, thus fostering investment and enabling real-world deployment of this essential technology.

生物能源与碳捕获和储存（BECCS）被认为是通过同时提供净负排放和可用能源来实现净零排放目标的关键技术。然而，由于其投资吸引力较差，大规模部署仍然有限。传统的技术经济评估（TEA），即使考虑到碳信用收入，也表明BECCS系统在财务上与传统或可再生能源没有竞争力。本研究引入了一个技术-社会经济评估（TSEA）框架，该框架通过碳的社会成本（SC）和劳动力的机会成本将其货币化，从而整合了被忽视的社会效益，如间接排放取代和创造就业机会。一个案例研究评估了一个以小麦秸秆为燃料的热电联产BECCS设施，该设施在三种策略下运行：电和热热电联产、碳信用最大化和电力最大化。传统TEA的结果显示盈利能力为负（NPV = - 4.6亿美元），并表明碳信用价格必须超过240美元/tCO₂，才能使电力成本达到与可再生能源相当的水平。在TSEA框架下，所有配置都是有利可图的，电力最大化模式的净现值达到22.8亿美元。敏感性分析强调了盈利能力对假定碳社会成本的强烈依赖，凸显了BECCS经济学的不确定性和政策敏感性。这些发现强调了认识到BECCS的全部社会价值并将其货币化的必要性。未来的政策必须确定谁来承担碳排放损失的成本，并且必须建立机制，确保利益相关者能够为BECCS带来的更广泛的社会效益获得公平的补偿，从而促进投资并使这项关键技术能够在现实世界中得到应用。

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引用次数: 0

Carbon footprint reduction potential of consumption changes in five European countries in 2015, 2030, and 2050 2015年、2030年和2050年欧洲五国消费变化的碳足迹减少潜力

IF 9.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2025.08.018

Stephanie Cap , Sinja Li , Arjan de Koning , Antti Karjalainen , Michael Lettenmeier , Luca Coscieme , Arnold Tukker , Laura Scherer

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires extensive socioeconomic and technological transformations. With approximately two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions linked to household consumption, reducing demand-side emissions through low-carbon lifestyle changes is critical. While major emissions hotspots and high-impact consumption changes are known, a cross-country prospective analysis of their emissions reduction potential has been missing. This study quantifies the avoided greenhouse gas emissions from 47 consumption changes across five diverse European countries. We assess how socioeconomic and technological changes influence emissions reduction potentials by comparing such potentials in a baseline year (2015) with those in 2030 and 2050 under a sustainable development scenario. Our findings highlight that the most effective mitigation options involve reducing conventional vehicle use, decarbonizing household heating, and shifting to predominantly plant-based diets. Though country-specific variation exists, we observed that the emissions reduction potentials of many consumption changes evolve proportionally to technological changes. Behaviors involving direct fossil fuel combustion, such as car travel or fossil-fueled heating, remain largely unabated by technological shifts without lifestyle change, thus increasing in relative mitigation potential. Changes relying on electricity substitution, such as switching to a heat pump, were most dependent on systemic decarbonization. These insights demonstrate which household-level actions consistently offer high emissions mitigation potential and which are more sensitive to broader system changes. Our results provide a clearer understanding of how individual climate change mitigation actions intersect with long-term industrial decarbonization strategies, supporting more targeted policymaking for demand-side climate change mitigation.

将全球变暖限制在1.5°C需要广泛的社会经济和技术变革。由于全球约三分之二的温室气体排放与家庭消费有关，因此通过改变低碳生活方式来减少需求侧排放至关重要。虽然已知主要的排放热点和高影响的消费变化，但缺乏对其减排潜力的跨国前瞻性分析。这项研究量化了五个不同欧洲国家47项消费变化所避免的温室气体排放。通过将基准年（2015年）的减排潜力与可持续发展情景下2030年和2050年的减排潜力进行比较，我们评估了社会经济和技术变化如何影响减排潜力。我们的研究结果强调，最有效的缓解方案包括减少传统车辆的使用，使家庭供暖脱碳，以及转向以植物为主的饮食。尽管存在国别差异，但我们观察到，许多消费变化的减排潜力与技术变化成正比。涉及直接燃烧化石燃料的行为，如汽车旅行或化石燃料加热，在没有改变生活方式的情况下，在很大程度上仍未因技术变化而减少，因此相对缓解潜力增加。依靠电力替代的变化，如改用热泵，最依赖于系统脱碳。这些见解表明，哪些家庭一级的行动始终具有较高的减排潜力，哪些对更广泛的系统变化更敏感。我们的研究结果更清楚地了解了个体气候变化减缓行动与长期工业脱碳战略之间的相互作用，为更有针对性的需求侧气候变化减缓政策制定提供了支持。

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引用次数: 0

Potential for biogenic carbon storage towards a net-zero built environment in Switzerland 生物碳储存在瑞士实现净零建筑环境的潜力

IF 9.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2025.08.019

Yasmine Dominique Priore , Lucile Schulthess , Sarah Delmenico , Lionel Rinquet , Guillaume Habert , Thomas Jusselme

The built environment is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, posing challenges for achieving net-zero targets by 2050. This study examines the potential of an increased use of biobased materials in the Swiss residential building stock to mitigate emissions while increasing biogenic carbon storage. Using a Python-based building stock model, the study evaluates the effectiveness of increasing the share of biobased materials in both renovations and new constructions under different scenarios compared to climate goals. Results indicate that renovations will become the dominant driver of building stock emissions and biogenic carbon storage potential by 2050. While new construction activities will decline due to demographic trends, renovations will contribute nearly four times more to GHG emissions than new buildings. Nevertheless, new constructions are more effective at storing biogenic carbon, achieving a biogenic-to-emissions ratio of 300 % by 2050, compared to 176 % for renovations. By mid-century, the yearly biogenic carbon storage in buildings could reach 2.5 Mt. CO₂, approaching a balance with yearly GHG embodied emissions. However, even in the most optimistic scenario, increasing biobased material use alone reduces cumulative emissions by only 5–8 % compared to business as usual, underscoring the need for additional emission reduction strategies, including decarbonizing material production and reducing construction activities. The long-term analysis reveals that biogenic carbon storage potential is constrained by demolition rates (assuming full re-emission at the end of life), with a higher demolition rate accelerating carbon turnover and limiting storage capacity. A cumulative maximum biogenic carbon stock of 300–400 Mt. CO₂ is projected in the long-term, surpassing Switzerland's expected cumulative net emissions removals by 2050 by 6 times. This study highlights the built environment's potential as a long-term carbon reservoir and emphasizes the necessity of targeted renovation strategies, regulatory policies, and material production improvements to achieve climate goals effectively.

建筑环境是全球温室气体（GHG）排放的主要来源，对到2050年实现净零排放目标提出了挑战。本研究探讨了在瑞士住宅建筑存量中增加使用生物基材料的潜力，以减少排放，同时增加生物碳储存。使用基于python的建筑存量模型，该研究评估了与气候目标相比，在不同情景下，在翻新和新建建筑中增加生物基材料份额的有效性。结果表明，到2050年，改造将成为建筑存量排放和生物碳储存潜力的主要驱动力。虽然新建筑活动将因人口趋势而减少，但翻新建筑的温室气体排放量将是新建建筑的近四倍。然而，新建筑在储存生物碳方面更有效，到2050年，生物碳排放比将达到300%，而翻新建筑的生物碳排放比为176%。到本世纪中叶，建筑物中每年的生物碳储量可能达到250万吨二氧化碳，接近于每年温室气体排放量的平衡。然而，即使在最乐观的情况下，仅增加生物基材料的使用与往常相比，也只能减少5 - 8%的累积排放量，这强调了需要采取额外的减排战略，包括使材料生产脱碳和减少建筑活动。长期分析表明，生物源碳储存潜力受到拆除率（假设在生命结束时完全再排放）的限制，较高的拆除率加速了碳周转，限制了碳储存能力。预计从长期来看，累积最大生物源碳储量为300-400 Mt. CO₂，到2050年将超过瑞士预计的累积净排放量的6倍。本研究强调了建筑环境作为长期碳库的潜力，并强调了有针对性的改造战略、监管政策和材料生产改进的必要性，以有效实现气候目标。

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引用次数: 0

Advancing metrics for animal welfare and antibiotic use in sustainability assessments of diets 在饮食可持续性评估中推进动物福利和抗生素使用指标

IF 9.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2025.08.020

Lotta Rydhmer , Elin Röös

Assessment of the sustainability of diets typically includes the diet's impact on the environment, including effect on greenhouse gas emissions, and the use of land and water. However, there are other crucial sustainability aspects including animal welfare and antibiotic use that sustainability assessments usually neglect due to methodological challenges and lack of available data. This study contributes to the improvement of sustainability assessments of food systems by advancing methods to include animal welfare and antibiotic use. The proposed animal welfare indices reflect the number of animals affected per kilogram of animal product, the animals' cognitive ability to experience negative effects, and the quality of the production system, including disease frequency and space limitations. The proposed antibiotic use indicator acts as a proxy for the risk of bacteria developing resistance to antibiotics that threatens health of humans and animals. It was developed based on national sales data, adjusted for species-specific differences. The animal welfare indices and the antibiotic use indicator were applied to a range of animal products commonly consumed in a set of European countries, revealing substantial variations in animal welfare loss and antibiotic use across species and production systems. For example, rabbit and chicken production showed high welfare loss per kilogram of meat due to the number of animals affected and the relatively poor conditions in intensive livestock systems. Meat from cattle and wild-caught species had lower welfare loss (i.e. favourable) per kilogram, attributed to the larger body mass of these animals and less suffering in production. The methodologies developed here offer a much needed tool for evaluating trade-offs between animal welfare, antibiotic use, and environmental sustainability in food production.

对饮食可持续性的评估通常包括饮食对环境的影响，包括对温室气体排放的影响，以及土地和水的利用。然而，还有其他关键的可持续性方面，包括动物福利和抗生素的使用，可持续性评估通常由于方法上的挑战和缺乏可用数据而被忽视。本研究通过推进包括动物福利和抗生素使用在内的方法，有助于改善粮食系统的可持续性评估。拟议的动物福利指数反映了每公斤动物产品受影响的动物数量，动物对负面影响的认知能力，以及生产系统的质量，包括疾病频率和空间限制。拟议的抗生素使用指标可作为细菌对抗生素产生耐药性的风险指标，从而威胁人类和动物的健康。它是根据国家销售数据制定的，并根据特定物种的差异进行了调整。动物福利指数和抗生素使用指标应用于一系列欧洲国家普遍消费的动物产品，揭示了动物福利损失和抗生素使用在物种和生产系统之间的巨大差异。例如，由于受影响的动物数量和集约化畜牧系统中相对较差的条件，兔肉和鸡肉生产显示出每公斤肉的高福利损失。牛和野生捕获物种的肉每公斤的福利损失（即有利）较低，原因是这些动物的体重较大，生产过程中遭受的痛苦较少。这里开发的方法为评估食品生产中动物福利、抗生素使用和环境可持续性之间的权衡提供了一个急需的工具。

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引用次数: 0