Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献_第2页

Effective transboundary aquifer areas between Mexico and the United States: A border-wide approach 墨西哥和美国之间有效的跨界含水层区域：全边界方法

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102003

Study Region

This research is situated in the U.S-Mexico border region. It encompasses the geographical extension of the 28 transboundary aquifers located across the ten border states between the two countries.

Study Focus

This study aims to identify regions within the hydrogeological units shared across the U.S.-Mexico border that could be in a vulnerable condition due to groundwater overexploitation on either side of the border. The Effective Transboundary Aquifer Area (ETAA) approach attempts to represent those effective geographical areas of groundwater production within the geological boundaries of the aquifer, to prioritize vulnerable areas at a more refined and local scale. To identify ETAAs, this study uses well density well depth data to portray depth contours as a proxy for potential impacts of groundwater flows at transboundary level.

New Hydrological Insights

For planning and management purposes at binational scale and considering the constraints on data and research on transboundary aquifers, the ETAAs provide a more feasible and useful approach to assess the conditions of a shared resource at a more “localized” scale. This approach facilitates the integration of stakeholders’ perspectives and specific needs of the communities that overlay the ETAA. Results show the location and extension of the ETAAs across the complete U.S.-Mexico border identifying the most vulnerable and highly groundwater-dependent regions.

研究区域本研究位于美国和墨西哥边境地区。研究重点本研究旨在确定美墨边境共有的水文地质单元中，由于边境两侧地下水过度开采而可能处于脆弱状态的区域。有效跨界含水层区域（ETAA）方法试图代表含水层地质边界内地下水生产的有效地理区域，以便在更细化的地方范围内优先考虑脆弱区域。为确定 ETAA，本研究使用井密度井深数据来描绘深度等值线，以替代跨界地下水流的潜在影响。这种方法有助于整合利益相关者的观点和覆盖 ETAA 的社区的具体需求。结果显示了整个美墨边境地区的 ETAA 位置和延伸范围，确定了最脆弱和高度依赖地下水的地区。

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引用次数: 0

Modified drought propagation under a changing environment: A case study in the Dongting Lake basin, China 变化环境下的改良干旱传播：中国洞庭湖流域案例研究

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101986

Study region

Four sub-basins of the Dongting Lake basin (DLB), China.

Study focus

The “pre-post-disturbance” method was employed to assess the impact of environmental variation on propagation from meteorological drought (MD) to hydrological drought (HD) in the DLB. The study period was split into two sub-periods (i.e, the baseline and impacted periods) via breakpoints of annual runoff series. Additionally, we calculated the drought propagation characteristics in different periods using the run theory. Furthermore, based on copula function and conditional probability analysis, the transmission threshold of MD triggering HD was determined.

New hydrological insights for the region

(i) Compared with the baseline period, the severity of HD in the Li River (LR) and Yuan River (YR) increased by 0.5 % and 1.3 % during the impacted period, respectively, while that in the Zi River (ZR) and Xiang River (XR) decreased by −25.9 % and −31.6 %, respectively; (ii) Human activities have weakened the correlation between HD and MD, resulting in various patterns of propagation time in different sub-basins and seasons; (iii) As a whole, propagation threshold from MD to HD became larger during the impacted period, with an average change rate from 0.9 % to 195.5 %.

研究区域中国洞庭湖流域（DLB）的四个子流域。研究重点采用 "前-后-扰动 "法评估环境变化对洞庭湖流域气象干旱（MD）向水文干旱（HD）传播的影响。通过年径流序列的断点，将研究期分为两个子期（即基线期和影响期）。此外，我们还利用运行理论计算了不同时期的干旱传播特征。与基线期相比，影响期漓江（LR）和沅江（YR）的干旱严重程度分别增加了 0.5 % 和 1.3 %，而资江（ZR）和湘江（XR）的干旱严重程度分别减少了 -25.(ii)人类活动削弱了 HD 与 MD 之间的相关性，导致不同子流域和不同季节的传播时间出现不同规律；(iii)总体而言，受影响期间 MD 向 HD 的传播阈值变大，平均变化率从 0.9%到 195.5%。

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引用次数: 0

A multidisciplinary approach for recharge areas definition in carbonate aquifers tested on the Apuan Alps regional system, NW Tuscany-Italy 在意大利托斯卡纳西北部阿普安阿尔卑斯山地区系统中测试碳酸盐含水层补给区定义的多学科方法

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101981

Study region

Apuan Alps (NW-Tuscany, Central Italy).

Study focus

Definition of the hydrogeological conceptual model of carbonate aquifer systems in order to define their recharge areas, using a multidisciplinary and integrated approach that involves geochemistry and isotopic tools. The proposed approach was tested on the Apuan Alps carbonate aquifers that contain precious groundwater resources to be protected, but their management is difficult to carry out without a detailed knowledge. The study of the groundwater hydrodynamics in terms of pathways and extension is often difficult to perform using conventional hydrogeological surveys. Geochemistry and isotopic tool can therefore provide an important contribution. However, to use such tools it is necessary to provide a characterization of the infiltration waters through which the isotopic data of the main springs can be interpreted. The paper proposes a hydrogeological approach combined with geochemical methodologies and ¹³C data of water and rock samples for selecting springs representative of local infiltration.

New hydrological insights for the region

An isotopic characterization of infiltration water was performed, and the definition of the vertical isotope gradient specific for the area of interest was defined. By crossing this gradient with the geological structures, morphology and hydrology features of the territory, the feeding areas of two of the most important karst springs in the Apuan Alps region were delimited, thus testing the proposed methodology.

研究地区阿普安阿尔卑斯山（意大利中部托斯卡纳西北部）。研究重点确定碳酸盐岩含水层系统的水文地质概念模型，以便利用涉及地球化学和同位素工具的多学科综合方法确定其补给区。在阿普安阿尔卑斯山碳酸盐含水层上对所提出的方法进行了测试，这些含水层蕴含着需要保护的珍贵地下水资源，但如果没有详细的知识，就很难对其进行管理。传统的水文地质勘测通常难以对地下水的流向和延伸进行研究。因此，地球化学和同位素工具可以做出重要贡献。然而，要使用这些工具，就必须提供渗透水的特征，通过这些特征来解释主要泉水的同位素数据。本文提出了一种结合地球化学方法和水与岩石样本 13C 数据的水文地质方法，用于选择代表当地渗透的泉水。对该地区水文的新认识对渗透水进行了同位素鉴定，并确定了相关地区特有的垂直同位素梯度。通过将这一梯度与该地区的地质结构、形态和水文特征相结合，划定了阿普安阿尔卑斯山地区两个最重要的岩溶泉的补给区，从而对所提出的方法进行了测试。

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引用次数: 0

Sustainable groundwater regulation in typical irrigation areas of inland river basins based on ecological indicators and the MIKE-SHE hydrological model 基于生态指标和 MIKE-SHE 水文模型的内陆河流域典型灌区地下水可持续调控方法

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102000

Study region

The study area is located in the Nukus irrigation area on the lower reaches of the Amudarya River in Uzbekistan.

Study focus

The extensive agricultural land development has introduced a substantial amount of water resources into the irrigation area, leading to a significant rise in regional groundwater levels. Quantifying regional groundwater resource issues and achieving sustainable groundwater management under conditions of high spatiotemporal heterogeneity are key scientific issues for regional ecological protection. Thus, this study used the concept of ecological water level to quantify groundwater issues, used the MIKE-SHE hydrological model to conduct scenario simulations, formulated and subsequently evaluated a groundwater regulation plan with spatiotemporal attributes.

New hydrological insights for the region

Regional sustainable development groundwater level should be within the range of 1.78–2.78 m. During the irrigation and non-irrigation periods, the groundwater levels in approximately 84.3 % and 72.2 % of the study area respectively exceeded the upper and lower ecological water level limits. Under the background of gradually increasing groundwater fluctuations, it will pose a serious threat to regional ecology. Therefore, this paper established a monthly-scale groundwater zoning control plan, which can make the area of regional groundwater within the ecological water level reach 87.53 %. All research not only contributes to the protection of the local ecological environment but also provides valuable insights for water resources management in other regions.

研究区域研究区域位于乌兹别克斯坦阿姆河下游的努库斯灌区。研究重点大面积的农田开发为灌区引入了大量水资源，导致区域地下水位显著上升。量化区域地下水资源问题并在高度时空异质性条件下实现可持续地下水管理是区域生态保护的关键科学问题。因此，本研究采用生态水位概念量化地下水问题，利用 MIKE-SHE 水文模型进行情景模拟，制定并评估了具有时空属性的地下水调控方案。在灌溉期和非灌溉期，分别有约 84.3% 和 72.2% 的研究区域的地下水位超过了生态水位的上下限。在地下水波动逐渐增大的背景下，将对区域生态环境构成严重威胁。因此，本文建立了月尺度地下水分区控制方案，可使区域地下水在生态水位以内的面积达到 87.53%。所有研究不仅有助于保护当地的生态环境，也为其他地区的水资源管理提供了有价值的启示。

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引用次数: 0

Probability links between meteorological drought and hydrological drought from a 3D perspective 从三维角度看气象干旱与水文干旱之间的概率联系

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102001

Study region

Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB), Southeast Asia

Study focus

The links between meteorological drought (MD) and hydrological drought (HD) from a 3D perspective have not been fully investigated. A 3D identification method was employed to identify MD and HD events in the LMRB. Response of HD to MD were evaluated using linear and nonlinear models. Furthermore, the occurrence probabilities and propagation thresholds (PTs) from MD to HD were examined by applying a copula joint distribution and conditional probability based on a Bayesian network (CPBN).

New hydrological insights for the region

A total of 81 MDs and 87 HDs were identified during 1950–2021. HDs had longer durations but affected a smaller area and were less severe than MDs, with their centroids mainly located in eastern Thailand. 46 pairs of MD-HD events were matched spatiotemporally, revealing that a HD event in typical drought years could be driven by multiple MD events. The duration, area, and severity of these drought pairs were optimally fitted using linear, 3P-power, and polynomial function models, respectively. Additionally, the occurrence probabilities of moderate, severe, and extreme HDs successively decreased under the same MD conditions. The PT from MD to HD increased with increasing severity levels of HDs. The study of the links between MD and HD from a 3D perspective provides a more comprehensive understanding of drought in the LMRB.

研究区域东南亚湄公河下游流域（LMRB）研究重点尚未从三维角度充分研究气象干旱（MD）与水文干旱（HD）之间的联系。采用三维识别方法识别了 LMRB 中的 MD 和 HD 事件。使用线性和非线性模型评估了 HD 对 MD 的响应。此外，通过应用基于贝叶斯网络的 copula 联合分布和条件概率 (CPBN)，研究了从 MD 到 HD 的发生概率和传播阈值 (PTs)。HD 持续时间较长，但影响范围较小，严重程度低于 MD，其中心点主要位于泰国东部。46 对 MD-HD 事件进行了时空匹配，揭示了典型干旱年份的 HD 事件可能是由多个 MD 事件驱动的。这些干旱事件对的持续时间、面积和严重程度分别用线性、3P-幂和多项式函数模型进行了最佳拟合。此外，在相同的 MD 条件下，中度、重度和极端 HD 的发生概率依次降低。从 MD 到 HD 的 PT 随 HD 严重程度的增加而增加。从三维角度研究MD与HD之间的联系，可以更全面地了解LMRB的干旱情况。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring possible climate change amplification of warm-season precipitation extremes in the southeastern Alpine forelands at regional to local scales 从区域到地方尺度探讨气候变化对东南阿尔卑斯山前缘地区暖季极端降水的可能放大作用

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101987

Study Region:

Southeastern Alpine forelands, with the representative regions explored mainly located in Southeast Austria.

Study Focus:

Short duration extreme convective precipitation events (SDECPEs) are increasingly altered by climate change but such events are not properly detectable in reanalysis datasets like ERA5-Land. Data from the WegenerNet (WEGN) high-density station network and GeoSphere Austria’s INCA dataset provide higher resolution, making them more suitable for the investigation, but are available only for the most recent two decades. In this study we hence leverage the WegenerNet and INCA data for the high-resolution exploration of warm-season (Apr–Oct) SDECPEs and assess, through combination with (re)analysis data over 1961–2022, a potential climate-change-induced amplification of such sub-daily precipitation extremes. We prepared a SDECPE classification to this end and employ a new class of threshold-exceedance-amount (TEA) metrics for the long-term analysis.

New hydrological insights for the region:

Even though extreme hourly-scale precipitation is expected to increase with rising temperatures, we find that this strongly varies at local scales within the region. While some subregions show an amplification higher than the Clausius–Clapeyron relation would suggest, and beyond estimated natural variability, others exhibit a decrease in extreme precipitation. The inspected ratios between maximum and average hourly precipitation and the TEA metrics enabled deeper insights into the changes of these extremes. Also the vital need for long-term high-resolution precipitation observations was strongly evidenced.

研究区域：阿尔卑斯山东南部前缘地区，研究的代表性区域主要位于奥地利东南部。研究重点：短时极端对流降水事件（SDECPEs）越来越多地受到气候变化的影响，但ERA5-Land 等再分析数据集无法正确探测到此类事件。韦格纳网（WEGN）高密度台站网络和奥地利 GeoSphere 的 INCA 数据集提供了更高的分辨率，使其更适合于研究，但它们只能提供最近二十年的数据。因此，在本研究中，我们利用 WegenerNet 和 INCA 数据对暖季（4 月至 10 月）SDECPE 进行了高分辨率勘测，并结合 1961-2022 年的（再）分析数据，评估了气候变化可能导致的这种亚日极端降水的扩大。我们为此编制了 SDECPE 分类，并采用了一类新的阈值-超标量（TEA）指标进行长期分析。对该地区的新水文见解：尽管每小时尺度的极端降水量预计会随着气温升高而增加，但我们发现该地区的局部尺度差异很大。一些次区域显示出比克劳修斯-克拉皮隆关系所显示的更高的增幅，并且超出了估计的自然变率，而另一些次区域则显示出极端降水量的减少。最大小时降水量和平均小时降水量之间的检测比率以及 TEA 指标使人们能够更深入地了解这些极端降水量的变化。这也有力地证明了长期高分辨率降水观测的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Modeling present and future flows in a tailings pile at the former Le Cellier uranium mine (France) 模拟前 Le Cellier 铀矿尾矿堆（法国）目前和未来的流动情况

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101984

Study region

The former uranium mine near Le Cellier, France represents an opportunity to investigate unsaturated flow in real conditions through a tailings pile resulting from heap leaching. Sustainable water management requires the understanding of its flows, to limit chemical reactions and avoid the migration of contaminants into the environment.

Study focus

Daily monitoring of drain discharge and monthly monitoring of physicochemical parameters at the pile outlet provide reliable information on how fast the pile reacts to precipitation. A two-dimensional dual-porosity model was developed with HYDRUS 2D at a daily time step. The model integrates a simple representation of material heterogeneity, based on a sieve analysis, and the vegetation transpiration due to the presence of bushes and coniferous trees on the surface of the pile. Climate change may affect the recharge and discharge over the next 100 years with median annual discharge varying between +4.4 % and −12 % depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

New hydrological insights of the region

: The calibrated model correctly simulates water discharge at the pile outlet and allows its simulation under climate change. Discharge simulations show that effluents generated during events below the 200-year return period rainfall events could be stored in a buffer basin to avoid any environmental contamination. These simulations are essential to ensure sustainable future water management at this former mining site.

研究区域法国 Le Cellier 附近的前铀矿为研究堆浸法产生的尾矿堆在实际条件下的非饱和流动提供了机会。可持续的水管理需要了解其流动情况，以限制化学反应，避免污染物迁移到环境中。研究重点每天监测排水口的排放情况，每月监测堆出口的物理化学参数，这些都为了解堆对降水的反应速度提供了可靠信息。我们使用 HYDRUS 2D 开发了一个每日时间步长的二维双孔隙模型。该模型以筛分分析为基础，整合了材料异质性的简单表示方法，以及由于桩体表面存在灌木丛和针叶树而产生的植被蒸腾作用。气候变化可能会影响未来 100 年的补给量和排水量，根据温室气体排放情况，年排水量中位数将在 +4.4 % 和 -12 % 之间变化：经过校准的模型能够正确模拟水堆出口的排水量，并可在气候变化的情况下对其进行模拟。排水模拟显示，在低于 200 年一遇的降雨事件中产生的污水可以储存在缓冲池中，以避免对环境造成污染。这些模拟对于确保该采矿旧址未来可持续的水资源管理至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Whether higher risk indicates severe loss in the flood disaster assessment: A comparative analysis in the Hubei province of central China 在洪水灾害评估中，风险越高是否意味着损失越严重：中国中部湖北省的比较分析

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102002

Study region

Hubei province, Yangtze River Basin, Central China

Study focus

Risk and loss analysis constitutes a critical element of flood disaster management. Nevertheless, the relationship between risk and loss has been infrequently examined in the literature. Here we developed a comparative analysis framework for assessing flood risk and loss in Hubei Province. The risk model incorporates 22 indicators in terms of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and emergency response & recovery capability. Indicator weights were determined through a combination of objective and subjective weighting methods based on the game theory. Flood risk and loss levels were classified using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and grey correlation analysis respectively.

New hydrological insights

Annual risk and loss maps exhibit a spatial pattern of higher levels in the eastern regions and lower levels in the western regions. However, the relationship between risk and loss was not as well as expected during designated flood periods. While regions impacted by disasters typically demonstrated higher risk levels, the risk in the regions unaffected by flood disasters appeared to be overestimated. By analyzing flood risk and loss across various temporal scales, this research contributes a novel perspective for the evaluation of flood risk models.

研究地区湖北省，长江流域，中国中部研究重点风险和损失分析是洪水灾害管理的关键要素。然而，风险与损失之间的关系在文献中却鲜有研究。在此，我们开发了一个用于评估湖北省洪水风险和损失的比较分析框架。该风险模型包含 22 个指标，涉及危害、风险暴露、脆弱性、应急响应和恢复能力。指标权重通过基于博弈论的客观和主观权重相结合的方法确定。新的水文见解年度风险和损失图显示出东部地区风险和损失水平较高，西部地区风险和损失水平较低的空间模式。然而，在指定的洪水期，风险和损失之间的关系并不像预期的那么好。虽然受灾害影响的地区通常显示出较高的风险水平，但未受洪水灾害影响的地区的风险似乎被高估了。通过分析不同时间尺度的洪水风险和损失，这项研究为评估洪水风险模型提供了一个新的视角。

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引用次数: 0

Rising lake levels in central East Africa are driven by increasing rainfall and land-use intensification 东非中部湖泊水位上升的原因是降雨量增加和土地使用集约化

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101999

Study region

375 lakes across the East African Rift System

Study focus

East African Rift System lakes provide a critical region of freshwater biodiversity and support the livelihoods of millions of people. Since 2010, water levels have risen at many Kenyan Rift System lakes flooding settlements, destroying infrastructure and impacting biodiversity, whereas several Ethiopian lakes experienced declining water levels, threatening water availability. However, water storage changes have not been quantified and the drivers of hydrological change have not been assessed on a regional scale. Here, we used satellite Earth observation and open-access data products to quantify changes in lake water volumes, total catchment water storage anomalies and environmental drivers for 375 lakes across the East African Rift System from 2000 to 2023.

New hydrological insights for the region

Water storage increased across central East Africa and declined in the south of the Rift System, with lake surface areas increasing by a total of 71,822 km² and water volumes increasing by 1375.2 km³. Increasing rainfall (Coef = 1.775, SE = 0.571, p = 0.002) and urban development (Coef = 6.270, SE = 2.260, p = 0.006) caused expanding lake surface areas, whereas population growth within catchments reduced both lake surface areas (Coef = −7.023, SE = 2.210, p = 0.002) and water volumes (Coef = −8.735, SE = 3.578, p = 0.020). Increasing rainfall trends (Coef = 4.454, SE = 1.733, p = 0.020) and the expansion of catchment forest cover (Coef = 11.284, SE = 5.263, p = 0.047) facilitated greater water storage within lake basins. With more extreme wet seasons and longer dry seasons predicted for East Africa under climate change, sustainable catchment management is required to mitigate both future flooding and drought events.

研究区域东非大裂谷系统的 375 个湖泊研究重点东非大裂谷系统的湖泊是淡水生物多样性的重要区域，为数百万人的生计提供支持。自 2010 年以来，肯尼亚大裂谷系统的许多湖泊水位上升，淹没了居民点，破坏了基础设施，影响了生物多样性，而埃塞俄比亚的一些湖泊水位下降，威胁到水的供应。然而，蓄水量的变化尚未得到量化，水文变化的驱动因素也尚未在区域范围内得到评估。在这里，我们利用卫星地球观测和开放获取的数据产品，量化了 2000 年至 2023 年期间东非大裂谷系 375 个湖泊的湖水量变化、总流域蓄水量异常和环境驱动因素。降雨量增加（Coef = 1.775，SE = 0.571，p = 0.002）和城市发展（Coef = 6.270，SE = 2.260，p = 0.006）导致湖面面积扩大，而流域内的人口增长则减少了湖面面积（Coef = -7.023，SE = 2.210，p = 0.002）和水量（Coef = -8.735，SE = 3.578，p = 0.020）。降雨量的增加趋势（Coef = 4.454，SE = 1.733，p = 0.020）和集水区森林覆盖面积的扩大（Coef = 11.284，SE = 5.263，p = 0.047）促进了湖泊流域内水量的增加。在气候变化的影响下，预计东非的极端雨季会更多，旱季会更长，因此需要对集水区进行可持续管理，以缓解未来的洪水和干旱事件。

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引用次数: 0

Baseflow characteristics and drivers in headwater catchment of the Yellow River, Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原黄河源头流域的基流特征和驱动因素

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101991

Study area

The headwater catchment of the Yellow River (HCYR) (95°90′–103°42′E, 32°16′–36°13′N) is located on the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau, a presentative high-cold region catchment, China.

Study focus

HCYR serves as the primary water supply during the dry season in downstream of the Yellow River Basin. Herein, we applied linear regression and the Bernaola-Galvan heuristic segmentation algorithm to identify the baseflow trends and abrupt changes. Four baseflow signatures (baseflow index (BFI), seasonal ratio (SR), concave index (CI), and slope of baseflow duration curve (S_BDC)) were used to investigate the characteristics of baseflow changes and the drivers quantitatively.

New hydrological insights for the region

The main findings are: (1) the baseflow generally exhibited an increasing trend (R² > 0.35, p < 0.1), (2) baseflow variation has an apparent spatiality, and it shows a more pronounced change in the middle part than the upper and lower parts, and (3) precipitation, sunshine hours, soil moisture and evapotranspiration were the controlling factors on the baseflow characteristics. These findings provide a deeper insight into baseflow behavior and drivers in high-cold regions, which are vital for ecosystem health, water resource safety and management in critical headwater catchments.

研究区域黄河源头集水区（95°90′-103°42′E，32°16′-36°13′N）位于青藏高原东北部，是中国目前的高寒地区集水区。研究重点黄河源头集水区是黄河流域下游枯水期的主要水源地。在此，我们采用线性回归和 Bernaola-Galvan 启发式分割算法来识别基流趋势和突变。利用基流指数 (BFI)、季节比 (SR)、凹指数 (CI) 和基流持续时间曲线斜率 (SBDC) 等四种基流特征，定量研究了基流变化的特征及其驱动因素：(1) 基流总体上呈上升趋势（R2 为 0.35，p 为 0.1）；(2) 基流变化具有明显的空间性，且中段变化比上、下段更明显；(3) 降水、日照时数、土壤水分和蒸散作用是基流特征的控制因素。这些发现有助于深入了解高寒地区的基流行为和驱动因素，对关键源头流域的生态系统健康、水资源安全和管理至关重要。

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引用次数: 0