Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献_第2页

An agent-based socio-hydrological modeling to identify the feedbacks between agricultural irrigation and ecological water conveyance tradeoffs in Hotan River basin 基于代理的社会-水文模型识别和田河流域农业灌溉与生态输水权衡之间的反馈作用

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102028

Shunke Wang , Jie Xue , Jingjing Chang , Huaiwei Sun , Xinxin Li , Xin Liu

Study region

Hotan River basin in Northwest China

Study focus

The conflict between agricultural irrigation and ecological water conveyance is particularly critical in arid inland river basins. Water resource systems involve multiple stakeholders and sectors, complicating the identification of dynamic feedback between agriculture and ecology. This study presents an agent-based socio-hydrological modeling (ABSHM) framework to address these interactions.

New hydrological insights for the region

Feedback is quantified using dynamic state variable of oasis decision-making sensitivity in the Hotan River basin. When this sensitivity ranges from 0.03 to 0.06, water managers prioritize agricultural irrigation, increasing its usage from 8 to 47 million m³ at the expense of ecological water. Conversely, when sensitivity is from 0.015 to 0.03, ecological health requires increasing ecological water use from 27 to 66 million m³ by reducing irrigation. The ABSHM framework effectively captures these dynamic feedback processes, supporting basin water resources management and decision-making. The uniqueness of the ABSHM framework lies in its ability to capture the impact of individual decision-making behaviors on the overall water resource system. This offers new perspectives and approaches for addressing current and future water resource management challenges.

研究区域中国西北部的和田河流域研究重点农业灌溉与生态输水之间的冲突在干旱的内陆河流域尤为严重。水资源系统涉及多个利益相关者和部门，使农业与生态之间的动态反馈识别变得更加复杂。本研究提出了一个基于代理的社会-水文建模（ABSHM）框架，以解决这些互动问题。对该地区的新水文见解利用和田河流域绿洲决策敏感性的动态状态变量对反馈进行量化。当灵敏度在 0.03 到 0.06 之间时，水资源管理者会优先考虑农业灌溉，以生态用水为代价将农业灌溉用水量从 800 万立方米增加到 4,700 万立方米。相反，当灵敏度在 0.015 到 0.03 之间时，生态健康要求通过减少灌溉将生态用水量从 2700 万立方米增加到 6600 万立方米。ABSHM 框架可有效捕捉这些动态反馈过程，为流域水资源管理和决策提供支持。ABSHM 框架的独特之处在于它能够捕捉个体决策行为对整个水资源系统的影响。这为应对当前和未来的水资源管理挑战提供了新的视角和方法。

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引用次数: 0

Regional-scale seasonal forecast of surface water availability in a semi-arid environment: The case of Ceará State in Northeast of Brazil 半干旱环境中地表水供应的区域尺度季节性预测：巴西东北部塞阿拉州的案例

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102058

Erwin Rottler , Martin Schüttig , Axel Bronstert , Alyson Brayner Sousa Estácio , Renan Vieira Rocha , Valdenor Nilo de Carvalho Junior , Clecia Cristina Barbosa Guimarães , Eduardo Sávio P.R. Martins , Christof Lorenz , Klaus Vormoor

Study region:

Ceará (Brazil).

Study focus:

Considerable intra- and inter-annual variability of rainfall in this semi-arid region lead to strong temporal variations in water availability. To store and supply water in times of water scarcity, tens of thousands of freshwater reservoirs have been built over time, most of which are unmonitored. Here, we develop a hydrological forecasting system for the entire state of Ceará which integrates satellite-based monitoring of reservoir water storage, bias-corrected seasonal weather forecasts and hydrological modeling of freshwater availability. We test and demonstrate the applicability of this system by conducting experiments with historic data, hindcasts and forecasts.

New hydrological insights for the region:

The assimilation of in-situ and Sentinel-1 based observations of reservoir fillings into the hydrological model WASA-SED proved to be feasible and an important step in the modeling of available water resources dynamics. Hydrological simulations for January to June from 1990–2019 based on meteorological observations resulted in a median average NRMSE between observed and modeled reservoir fillings of strategic reservoirs of 29.51%. The comparison of observed and predicted precipitation from two different seasonal forecasting systems were in the same order of magnitude (i.e. 19.51% and 24.52%). Hindcast experiments suggested the superposition of uncertainties of different model components. Efforts are currently being made to further test and improve the developed integrated framework as part of the operational service.

研究地区：塞阿拉（巴西）。研究重点：在这一半干旱地区，降雨量的年内和年际变化很大，导致可用水量在时间上变化很大。为了在缺水时储存和供应水源，长期以来建造了数以万计的淡水水库，其中大部分水库都没有受到监测。在此，我们为整个塞阿拉州开发了一套水文预报系统，该系统集成了基于卫星的水库蓄水监测、偏差校正季节性天气预报和淡水可用性水文模型。我们通过对历史数据、后报和预报进行实验，测试并证明了该系统的适用性。对该地区的新水文见解：事实证明，将基于原位和哨兵 1 号卫星的水库蓄水观测数据同化到水文模型 WASA-SED 中是可行的，也是可用水资源动态建模的重要一步。基于气象观测数据对 1990-2019 年 1-6 月的水文模拟结果表明，战略水库的观测水库蓄水量与建模水库蓄水量之间的平均无显著性差异（NRMSE）中位数为 29.51%。两个不同季节预报系统的观测降水量和预测降水量的比较结果处于同一数量级（即 19.51% 和 24.52%）。后报实验表明，不同模式组成部分的不确定性是叠加的。目前正在努力进一步测试和改进所开发的综合框架，将其作为业务服务的一部分。

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引用次数: 0

A novel structural equation modelling-based framework for identifying hydrometeorological multi-factor interaction 基于结构方程建模的新型水文气象多因素相互作用识别框架

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102050

Zhongan Li , Xian Guan , Xizhi Nong , Ronghui Li , Lihua Chen , Jiahua Wei

Study region

The Hanjiang River Basin, China.

Study focus

In this study, we proposed a new integrated framework based on structural equation models to identify hydrometeorological multi-factor interaction relationship. The spatiotemporal distribution and interaction relationship of hydrological, meteorological, and vegetation indicators in the Hanjiang River Basin were analyzed based on the national long-series monitoring data.

New hydrological insights for the region

The findings reveal that: (1) The rainfall is the maximum in the lower reaches (968.87 mm), and the runoff depth fluctuated the most in the lower reaches (1181.70 mm to 2934.88 mm). (2) Dew point temperature is an important influencing factor of rainfall in the upper and middle reaches, and relative humidity is an important influencing factor of rainfall in the lower reaches. High vegetation cover is an important influencing factor for runoff depth. (3) Rainfall and runoff depth are significantly negatively affected by meteorological characteristics, with effect values ranging from −0.24 to −0.68. However, runoff depth is positively affected by rainfall, relative humidity, vegetation characteristics, and canopy interception, with effect values ranging from 0.02 to 0.58. The size and mode of influence have significant regional differences.

研究区域中国汉江流域。研究重点在本研究中，我们提出了一种基于结构方程模型的新型综合框架，以识别水文气象多因素相互作用关系。基于国家长序列监测数据，分析了汉江流域水文、气象和植被指标的时空分布和相互作用关系：(1) 下游降雨量最大（968.87 毫米），下游径流深波动最大（1181.70 毫米至 2934.88 毫米）。(2）露点温度是中上游降雨的重要影响因素，相对湿度是下游降雨的重要影响因素。植被覆盖率高是径流深度的重要影响因素。(3) 降雨量和径流深受气象特征的显著负向影响，效应值在-0.24 至-0.68 之间。然而，降雨量、相对湿度、植被特征和冠层截流对径流深度有正向影响，效应值在 0.02 至 0.58 之间。影响的大小和方式具有显著的地区差异。

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引用次数: 0

Risk assessment and sources associated with potentially toxic elements in suspended particulate matter: A karst river perspective in active mining area 与悬浮颗粒物中潜在有毒元素相关的风险评估和来源：从活跃矿区的喀斯特河流角度看问题

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102052

Yeye Ren , Y.Jun Xu , Pan Wu , Jie Zeng , Changmei Yao , Guangxi Long , Xingxing Cao

Study region

Daiyang River Basin, a typical karst river basin impacted by mining activities in Guizhou, Southwest China.

Study focus

Rivers are fundamental components of regional water security, but they are facing potentially toxic elements (PTEs) pollution caused by mining activities. This study investigated the concentration, behavior, risks and sources of nine PTEs in suspended particulate matter (SPM) from mining-impacted karst rivers, which are essential for the safety and management of karst water environments.

New hydrological insights for the region

The contents of Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb and Hg exceeded the corresponding local soil background values, with Zn and Cu being the most important pollutants. These elements caused a very high potential toxicity risk to the basin and unacceptable carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks to the local residents. Correlation analysis and the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model indicated that Ni, Cd, Zn and Cu were mainly derived from mixed sources of geological background and anthropogenic activities (30.95 %), Hg, Sb, and As were related to coal mining and combustion sources (28.91 %), while Pb, As, Cr and Sb were mainly contributed by natural sources (40.15 %). Furthermore, mixed sources, mining-related sources and As were identified as priority control factors in the study area. These insights can provide powerful support for decision-makers to develop control policies and reduce PTEs pollution in karst areas.

研究重点河流是区域水安全的基本组成部分，但它们正面临着采矿活动造成的潜在有毒元素（PTEs）污染。本研究调查了受采矿活动影响的岩溶河流悬浮颗粒物 (SPM) 中九种潜在有毒元素的浓度、行为、风险和来源，这对岩溶水环境的安全和管理至关重要。这些元素对流域造成了极高的潜在毒性风险，并对当地居民造成了不可接受的致癌和非致癌风险。相关性分析和正矩阵因式分解（PMF）模型表明，镍、镉、锌和铜主要来自地质背景和人为活动的混合源（30.95%），汞、锑和砷与采煤和燃烧源有关（28.91%），而铅、砷、铬和锑则主要来自自然源（40.15%）。此外，混合源、采矿相关源和砷被确定为研究区域的优先控制因素。这些见解可为决策者制定控制政策和减少岩溶地区的 PTEs 污染提供有力支持。

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引用次数: 0

Geochemical fingerprints, evolution, and driving forces of groundwater in an alpine basin on Tibetan Plateau: Insights from unsupervised machine learning and objective weight allocation approaches 青藏高原高寒盆地地下水的地球化学指纹、演变和驱动力：无监督机器学习和客观权重分配方法的启示

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102054

Hongjie Yang , Yong Xiao , Shaokang Yang , Zhen Zhao , Shengbin Wang , Shanhu Xiao , Jie Wang , Yuqing Zhang , Jianhui Wang , Youjin Yuan , Ning Wang , Liwei Wang , Wenxu Hu

Study Region

Tongde Basin, a typical alpine basin on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Study focus

Research on the hydrochemical pattern and availability of groundwater is very limited in alpine regions, which greatly hinders the rational ulitilization and scientific management of groundwater resources. Multiple approaches integrating self-organizing map, K-means, entropy weight were employed to elucidate the distinct hydrochemical evolution patterns and controlling mechanisms of groundwater in alpine basins with dense human activities.

New hydrological insights for the region

Multiple hydrochemical evolution patterns were discovered for groundwater in present alpine basin on northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Groundwater presents a gradual hydrochemical evolution from the piedmont to the riverside under the natural regulation with the increasing of TDS and major ions along the flow path. While, groundwater at some sporadic sites is featured with relatively high total alkalinity due to carbonate mineral dissolution. The riverine groundwaters are regulated by the strong hydrodynamic condition of river and demonstrate fresher hydrochemical characteristics. Groundwaters in the irrigation areas are featured by elevated nitrate levels with a maximum of 42.86 mg/L, attributed to agricultural pollution inputs. A conceptual model was established to illustrate the distinct hydrochemical fingerprints, evolution patterns and controlling mechanisms of groundwater in alpine basins that with dense human activities. This research can enhance the understanding of groundwater chemical status, genesis and availability, and is beneficial for the conservation and sustainable management of groundwater resources in ecologically fragile alpine regions worldwide.

研究区域青藏高原东北部典型的高寒盆地--同德盆地研究重点高寒地区地下水的水化学形态和可利用性研究十分有限，极大地阻碍了地下水资源的合理利用和科学管理。本研究采用自组织图、K-均值、熵权等多种方法，阐明了人类活动密集的高寒盆地地下水的水化学演化规律及其控制机制。对该地区水文的新认识在青藏高原东北部的高寒盆地发现了地下水的多种水化学演化规律。在自然调节作用下，地下水呈现出从山麓到江边的渐进式水化学演化过程，沿水流路径的 TDS 和主要离子含量不断增加。而在一些零星地点，由于碳酸盐矿物的溶解，地下水的总碱度相对较高。沿河地下水受到河流强大水动力条件的调节，表现出较新鲜的水化学特征。灌溉区地下水的特点是硝酸盐含量较高，最高达 42.86 毫克/升，这归因于农业污染输入。研究建立了一个概念模型，以说明人类活动密集的高山盆地地下水的独特水化学特征、演变模式和控制机制。这项研究可以加深人们对地下水化学状况、成因和可用性的了解，有利于全球生态脆弱的高寒地区地下水资源的保护和可持续管理。

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引用次数: 0

Identifying the pattern of shallow groundwater hydrochemistry and its driving factors in a typical estuarine delta of Poyang Lake watershed, China: Insights into water quality assessment 中国鄱阳湖流域典型河口三角洲浅层地下水水化学模式及其驱动因素识别：对水质评估的启示

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102049

Hongxiang Fan , Fan Song , Huawu Wu , Yao Du , Ruiyu Lei , Mengyao Ding , Kaiwen Li , Jing Li , Congsheng Fu

Study region

A typical estuarine delta of Gan−Xiu River within Poyang Lake watershed, situated in the north of Jiangxi Province, China

Study focus

Although groundwater is considered as a crucial water resource for social development and public health, it presents significant challenges in preventing the deterioration of groundwater quality in the seasonal floodplain regions. Hence, this study focuses on the spatiotemporal variations of ionic concentrations of shallow groundwater in an estuarine delta of Gan-Xiu River in Poyang Lake watershed, which is greatly complicated by complex hydrological regimes and intensive anthropogenic activities such as cropland fertilizer. The potential factors controlling the ionic concentrations were identified using self-organizing map clustering and Piper diagram approaches. Moreover, the overall water quality of shallow groundwater was assessed according to the ionic compositions.

New hydrological insights for the region

(1) Shallow groundwater chemistry was influenced by weathering silicate and carbonate from ionic and Gibbs plots, which is highly associated with the distribution of the carbonate rock fissure-karst aquifer in the study region. (2) The contribution of groundwater to river water varied from 53.2 % to 71.5 % via isotopic analysis, suggesting that groundwater dominate the component of river water. (3) Most samples from cluster types are suitable for drinking and irrigation use except for sites from Cluster 6, which were characterized by the higher concentrations of Cl⁻, NO₃⁻ and SO₄²⁻.

研究区域中国江西省北部鄱阳湖流域内典型的赣秀河口三角洲研究重点虽然地下水被认为是社会发展和公共卫生的重要水资源，但在防止季节性洪泛区地下水水质恶化方面却面临着巨大挑战。因此，本研究重点关注鄱阳湖流域赣秀河口三角洲浅层地下水离子浓度的时空变化。利用自组织图聚类法和 Piper 图法确定了控制离子浓度的潜在因素。对该地区水文的新认识（1）从离子图和吉布斯图来看，浅层地下水化学受风化硅酸盐和碳酸盐的影响，这与研究地区碳酸盐岩裂隙-喀斯特含水层的分布高度相关。(2) 通过同位素分析，地下水占河水的比例从 53.2%到 71.5%不等，表明地下水在河水成分中占主导地位。(3) 除了第 6 组的样本具有较高的 Cl-、NO3- 和 SO42-浓度外，其他组群类型的样本大多适于饮用和灌溉。

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引用次数: 0

Estimating groundwater recharge across Africa during 2003–2023 using GRACE-derived groundwater storage changes 利用 GRACE 得出的地下水储量变化估算 2003-2023 年期间整个非洲的地下水补给量

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102046

Vagner G. Ferreira , Hao Yang , Christopher Ndehedehe , Hongyan Wang , Ying Ge , Jia Xu , Min Xia , Ikechukwu Kalu , Miao Jing , Nathan Agutu

Study Region:

Africa, with its diverse climatic zones from the humid Congo Basin to the arid Sahara Desert, where groundwater is influenced by climate variability, land use, and human activities.

Study Focus:

The main objective is to estimate groundwater recharge across Africa from 2003 to 2023 using a novel approach that uses GRACE-derived groundwater storage changes.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region:

This study provides new insights into the spatial patterns and temporal variability of groundwater recharge across Africa, highlighting the influence of climate variability on the continent’s groundwater resources. Key findings include distinct regional differences in recharge, with higher values in humid regions like the Congo Basin and lower values in arid regions like the Sahara Desert. Substantial interannual variability in recharge is largely driven by year-to-year variations in precipitation and modulated by major modes of climate variability, especially the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The sensitivity of groundwater recharge to hydroclimatic extremes, with droughts causing significant declines and wet periods leading to above-average replenishment. Regions with low recharge rates or high variability, such as Northern Africa, are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts and unsustainable groundwater abstraction. The findings emphasize the need for sustainable groundwater management strategies that consider the spatial and temporal variability of recharge, as well as the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater resources.

研究区域：非洲，从潮湿的刚果盆地到干旱的撒哈拉沙漠，气候区各不相同，地下水受到气候多变性、土地利用和人类活动的影响。研究重点：主要目的是使用一种新方法，利用 GRACE 衍生的地下水存储变化，估算 2003 年至 2023 年整个非洲的地下水补给量。对该地区水文的新认识：这项研究提供了对整个非洲地下水补给的空间模式和时间变化的新认识，突出了气候多变性对非洲大陆地下水资源的影响。主要发现包括：补给量存在明显的地区差异，刚果盆地等湿润地区的补给量较高，而撒哈拉沙漠等干旱地区的补给量较低。补给量的巨大年际变化在很大程度上受降水量年际变化的驱动，并受主要气候变异模式（尤其是太平洋十年涛动）的调节。地下水补给量对极端水文气候的敏感性，干旱会导致补给量大幅下降，而潮湿时期则会导致补给量高于平均水平。补给率低或变化大的地区，如北非，特别容易受到气候变化的影响和不可持续的地下水抽取。研究结果强调，可持续的地下水管理战略需要考虑补给的时空变化以及气候变化对地下水资源的潜在影响。

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引用次数: 0

Attribution analysis of hydrological drought after the impoundment of the Danjiangkou reservoir in the Hanjiang River Basin 汉江流域丹江口水库蓄水后水文干旱的归因分析

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102038

Cheng Li , Yanping Qu , Tianliang Jiang , Furen Jiang , Qianfeng Wang , Xuejun Zhang , Xiaohua Xu

Study region

Hanjiang River Basin, China

Study focus

Under the joint influences of human activities and climate change, droughts frequently occur in the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB). Quantifying the driving forces contribution on hydrological drought is crucial to enhance the early warning ability. This study employed the standardized streamflow index (SSI) to assess hydrological drought. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was utilized to reconstruct natural streamflow based on hydrological and meteorological data. By comparing the variations of drought characteristics in simulated and observed scenarios, the impacts of human activities and climate change to hydrological drought were quantified.

New hydrological insights for the study region

The SWAT model is capable of effectively simulating the natural streamflow conditions of the HRB with NSE>0.7, R²>0.8, logNSE>0.7 and |PBIAS|<20 %. Hydrological drought has intensified as a prolonged duration and greater severity affected by human activities and climate change. During the whole impact period (1968–2022), the duration and severity increased by 66.22 % and 81.16 % compared to baseline period (1956–1967). The year 1991 is detected as the mutation point. From 1968–1990 climate change has been the main factor in exacerbating hydrological drought. Since 1991, the influence of human activities has gradually exceeded the influence of climate change. These findings provide valuable insights for watershed integrated water resources management and water security.

研究区域中国汉江流域研究重点在人类活动和气候变化的共同影响下，汉江流域干旱频发。量化水文干旱的驱动力对提高预警能力至关重要。本研究采用标准化流量指数（SSI）来评估水文干旱。根据水文和气象数据，利用水土评估工具 (SWAT) 模型重建了自然溪流。SWAT 模型能够有效地模拟 HRB 的自然流场条件，NSE>0.7、R2>0.8、logNSE>0.7 和 |PBIAS|<20 %。受人类活动和气候变化的影响，水文干旱加剧，持续时间延长，严重程度增加。与基线期（1956-1967 年）相比，整个影响期（1968-2022 年）的持续时间和严重程度分别增加了 66.22% 和 81.16%。1991 年是突变点。从 1968 年到 1990 年，气候变化是加剧水文干旱的主要因素。自 1991 年起，人类活动的影响逐渐超过气候变化的影响。这些发现为流域水资源综合管理和水安全提供了宝贵的启示。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of national and international gridded meteorological products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Northern Italy 评估用于意大利北部降雨-径流建模的国家和国际网格气象产品

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102031

Gökhan Sarigil, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth

Study region

Northern Italy.

Study focus

Gridded meteorological products provide spatially-distributed meteorological forcings, facilitating hydrological modeling in large-scale experiments. However, their accuracy, in particular as far as precipitation is concerned, varies considerably in space and time, and rigorous validation of these products is essential before their application. This study conducts a large-scale evaluation of five meteorological datasets in Northern Italy through i) a direct comparison of precipitation and temperature estimates and ii) an indirect validation, assessing their ability to reproduce streamflow when used to force the CemaNeige-GR6J hydrological model. The tested datasets include two gauged-based products, namely SCIA (the reference gridded dataset from the Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research) and E-OBS, two products based on reanalyses (the global ERA5-Land and the national MERIDA) and a gauged-corrected global satellite precipitation product (CHIRPS).

New hydrological insights for the region

Gauge-based datasets provide the best streamflow simulations when the underlying station density is high: SCIA, based on a uniform and dense gauge network across the entire study area, confirms to be the best choice as the climatic reference dataset, while the use of E-OBS is not recommended in Piedmont due to the low number of stations. In areas with low station density, reanalyses may yield to more accurate results: among reanalysis-based products, the Italian MERIDA dataset outperforms ERA5-Land. Finally, CHIRPS results to be the least accurate precipitation dataset.

研究地区意大利北部。研究重点网格气象产品提供了空间分布的气象诱因，有助于大规模实验中的水文建模。然而，这些产品的准确性，尤其是降水的准确性，在空间和时间上存在很大差异，因此在应用之前必须对这些产品进行严格验证。本研究对意大利北部的五个气象数据集进行了大规模评估，包括 i) 降水量和温度估算值的直接比较；ii) 间接验证，评估这些数据集用于强制 CemaNeige-GR6J 水文模型时再现溪流的能力。测试的数据集包括两个基于测量的产品，即 SCIA（意大利环境保护与研究所的参考网格数据集）和 E-OBS，两个基于再分析的产品（全球 ERA5-Land 和国家 MERIDA）以及一个经过测量校正的全球卫星降水产品（CHIRPS）：SCIA 基于整个研究区域统一而密集的测站网络，被证实是气候参考数据集的最佳选择，而在皮埃蒙特，由于测站数量较少，不建议使用 E-OBS。在站点密度较低的地区，再分析可能会产生更准确的结果：在基于再分析的产品中，意大利 MERIDA 数据集的性能优于 ERA5-Land。最后，CHIRPS 是最不准确的降水数据集。

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引用次数: 0

Attribution mechanism of drought propagation time with changes in climate and underlying surface 干旱传播时间随气候和地表下层变化的归因机制

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102041

Kai Zhou , Yimin Wang , Jianxia Chang

Study region

Thirteen catchment regions of the Yellow River basin, located in northern China.

Study focus

Drought is a natural phenomenon characterized by a water deficiency that impacts various aspects of the hydrological cycle. Water deficit signals propagate through the hydrological system and are manifested in the sequential occurrence of meteorological drought, agricultural drought, and hydrological drought. The climate and underlying surface continuously influence the propagation of drought. Hence, it is imperative to investigate the attribution mechanism of drought propagation under the influence of climate and underlying surface.

New hydrological insights for the region

This study provides a theoretical attribution analysis framework for drought propagation time, including statistical and physical mechanisms. From the point of view of statistical analysis, this study found that the difference between meteorological drought and hydrological drought trend statistics was significantly correlated with the propagation time. And from the analyses of the water-energy coupled equation show that the contribution of climate and underlying surface to runoff was significantly correlated with the propagation time. From the point of view of physical mechanisms, hydrometeorological and underlying surface factors are important variables affecting drought propagation time, and the results of regression analyses provide empirical formulas for drought propagation time. Unlike previous studies, this study delved into the attribution mechanism of drought propagation time through regional comparisons. These findings are expected to be helpful for local drought management efforts and mitigation of associated losses.

研究区域位于中国北方的黄河流域的十三个集水区。研究重点干旱是一种自然现象，其特点是缺水，影响水文循环的各个方面。缺水信号在水文系统中传播，表现为气象干旱、农业干旱和水文干旱的相继发生。气候和底层地表不断影响着干旱的传播。本研究提供了干旱传播时间的理论归因分析框架，包括统计机制和物理机制。从统计分析的角度，本研究发现气象干旱与水文干旱趋势统计的差异与传播时间显著相关。而从水能耦合方程的分析来看，气候和下垫面对径流的贡献与传播时间显著相关。从物理机制的角度来看，水文气象和下垫面因素是影响干旱传播时间的重要变量，回归分析的结果提供了干旱传播时间的经验公式。与以往研究不同的是，本研究通过区域比较深入探讨了干旱传播时间的归因机制。预计这些研究结果将有助于当地的干旱管理工作和减轻相关损失。

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