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Capturing wetness for sustainability from climate variability and change in the Rio Conchos, Chihuahua, Mexico
IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102256
Marusia Renteria-Villalobos , R.T. Hanson

Study region

This is study of the Rio Conchos Watershed, Chihuahua, Mexico.

Study focus

This study provides assessment of selected extreme wet events from reservoir overflow data within climate variability from analysis of climate indices, sea-surface temperatures, hurricanes, and nearby tree-ring indices in Chihuahua, Mexico. The treaty-delivery requirements as well as local sustainability through direct use or replenishment of additional water requires coordinated capture of these wet events. Most of these extreme wet events and related reservoir spills occur during the Monsoon and hurricane season and appear to be related to additional storms from these weather events.

New hydrological insights for the region

Increased East-Pacific Sea-Surface Temperatures and variability combined with doubling of hurricanes, are driving additional extreme wet events across northern Mexico with 26 overflow events occurring at the Francisco I. Madero reservoir since 1955 shortly after construction of the reservoirs in the Rio Conchos Watershed. Climate variability has become more extreme with these wet events and droughts dominated by decadal cycles largely coincident with Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation cycles. All climate indices exhibit multiple levels of cycles that are being further amplified by climate change and become cycles of opportunity for capturing additional water needed for sustainability. Supply and demand management requires capture, use, reuse, and replenishment plus additional infrastructure, changes in local governance, and changes in land-use and treaties. Coordinated operation and planning will facilitate use of variable water resources for enhanced sustainability as part of a broader Conjunctive Water Management framework within the Rio Conchos watershed subject to climate change and variability.
{"title":"Capturing wetness for sustainability from climate variability and change in the Rio Conchos, Chihuahua, Mexico","authors":"Marusia Renteria-Villalobos ,&nbsp;R.T. Hanson","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102256","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102256","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>This is study of the Rio Conchos Watershed, Chihuahua, Mexico.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study provides assessment of selected extreme wet events from reservoir overflow data within climate variability from analysis of climate indices, sea-surface temperatures, hurricanes, and nearby tree-ring indices in Chihuahua, Mexico. The treaty-delivery requirements as well as local sustainability through direct use or replenishment of additional water requires coordinated capture of these wet events. Most of these extreme wet events and related reservoir spills occur during the Monsoon and hurricane season and appear to be related to additional storms from these weather events.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Increased East-Pacific Sea-Surface Temperatures and variability combined with doubling of hurricanes, are driving additional extreme wet events across northern Mexico with 26 overflow events occurring at the Francisco I. Madero reservoir since 1955 shortly after construction of the reservoirs in the Rio Conchos Watershed. Climate variability has become more extreme with these wet events and droughts dominated by decadal cycles largely coincident with Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation cycles. All climate indices exhibit multiple levels of cycles that are being further amplified by climate change and become cycles of opportunity for capturing additional water needed for sustainability. Supply and demand management requires capture, use, reuse, and replenishment plus additional infrastructure, changes in local governance, and changes in land-use and treaties. Coordinated operation and planning will facilitate use of variable water resources for enhanced sustainability as part of a broader Conjunctive Water Management framework within the Rio Conchos watershed subject to climate change and variability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102256"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143563575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of water-energy-food-ecology coordinated development in the Tarim River Basin
IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102288
Junjiao Zhen , Ying Guo , Yanfang Wang , Yulong Li , Yanjun Shen

Study region

Tarim River Basin (TRB) in the arid northwestern China.

Study focus

The TRB is facing escalating tensions among water, energy, food, and the ecological environment (WEFE). This study developed a WEFE evaluation system using an integrated single index quantification-multiple index synthesis-multiple criteria integration approach combined with coupling coordination model to assess the spatial-temporal evolution of WEFE nexus from 2000 to 2020. The obstacle degree model and geographic detector method were applied to reveal the internal and external drivers of these changes.

New hydrological insights for the region

The comprehensive development levels of WEFE and its all subsystems indicated an upward trend, with Bayingolin having the highest development level at 0.57. The WEFE coordination level steadily increased but remained at the primary coordination level. Bayingolin has the highest coordination level (0.74), whereas Kashgar exhibited the lowest level at 0.6. Energy production and agricultural water consumption ratio stood out as key internal factors affecting WEFE coordination, with obstacle values of 0.21 and 0.16, respectively. The impacts of external factors like GDP per capita, urbanization level, total regional population and rural disposable income per capita on the WEFE coordination level was increasing. These findings will facilitate to decision-making for the synergistic development of WEFE in the TRB, and hold significant reference value for other arid and water-scarce regions.
{"title":"Spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of water-energy-food-ecology coordinated development in the Tarim River Basin","authors":"Junjiao Zhen ,&nbsp;Ying Guo ,&nbsp;Yanfang Wang ,&nbsp;Yulong Li ,&nbsp;Yanjun Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102288","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102288","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Tarim River Basin (TRB) in the arid northwestern China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The TRB is facing escalating tensions among water, energy, food, and the ecological environment (WEFE). This study developed a WEFE evaluation system using an integrated single index quantification-multiple index synthesis-multiple criteria integration approach combined with coupling coordination model to assess the spatial-temporal evolution of WEFE nexus from 2000 to 2020. The obstacle degree model and geographic detector method were applied to reveal the internal and external drivers of these changes.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The comprehensive development levels of WEFE and its all subsystems indicated an upward trend, with Bayingolin having the highest development level at 0.57. The WEFE coordination level steadily increased but remained at the primary coordination level. Bayingolin has the highest coordination level (0.74), whereas Kashgar exhibited the lowest level at 0.6. Energy production and agricultural water consumption ratio stood out as key internal factors affecting WEFE coordination, with obstacle values of 0.21 and 0.16, respectively. The impacts of external factors like GDP per capita, urbanization level, total regional population and rural disposable income per capita on the WEFE coordination level was increasing. These findings will facilitate to decision-making for the synergistic development of WEFE in the TRB, and hold significant reference value for other arid and water-scarce regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102288"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Refining daily precipitation estimates using machine learning and multi-source data in alpine regions with unevenly distributed gauges
IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102272
Huajin Lei , Hongyi Li , Hongyu Zhao

Study area

The Qilian Mountains region, located in the northeast edge of the Tibetan plateau.

Study focus

Reliable high-spatiotemporal-resolution and long-term precipitation data are critical for agriculture, hydrology, and climate change impact analysis. However, in the cold and arid Qilian Mountains, the uneven distribution of rain gauges and the high spatial heterogeneity of topography pose great challenges to obtaining such data. To over these limitations, a downscaling-merging framework based on XGBoost (XDMF) is proposed to generate high accuracy precipitation dataset with 1 km by combining gauges, satellite, and reanalysis precipitation products. XDMF includes three critical steps: precipitation downscaling, identification, and estimation, focusing on simultaneously improving the spatial resolution, precipitation detection capability and estimation capability. This framework is applied in the Qilian Mountains and generated two datasets: QL-DMP2P (1981–2020) and QL-DMP4P (2001–2020).

New hydrological insights for the region

The results demonstrate that QL-DMP significantly outperforms original products at different temporal and spatial scales. Compared to methods that use XGBoost only in two steps (downscaling and estimation, or identification and estimation), XDMF can better reproduce the precipitation variability at the small-scale and reduce precipitation detection errors. This study offers high-quality and long-term alternative data for hydrometeorology research. Meanwhile, XDMF is a promising algorithm for enhancing precipitation in high-altitude mountain areas, which can be flexibly transferred to other regions, different machine learning algorithms, and various hydrometeorological variables.
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引用次数: 0
Investigating the historic drought in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022–2023 by jointly using GRACE, land surface models, and drought index
IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102286
Yu Lai , Bao Zhang , Yibin Yao

Study region

The Yangtze River Basin.

Study focus

A historic drought occurred in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in 2022 and lasted to 2023. This study used the generalized three-cornered hat method to integrate multi-source GRACE and land surface model data and generated reliable terrestrial water storage (TWS) and soil moisture storage (SMS) data, based on which we investigated how TWS deficits evolved during the drought and how SMS and groundwater storage (GWS) responded to the drought. We also analyzed the meteorological cause of this drought from the perspective of land water balance.

New hydrological insights for the region

The TWS deficit emerged in July 2022, peaked in September at − 10.1 ± 1.0 cm, and ended in October 2023, lasting much longer than previously reported. The TWS, SMS, and GWS deficits all showed a distinct southwestward propagation pattern, different from the previously reported eastward movement. The GWS deficit (-9.3 cm) was much larger than the SMS deficit (-4.5 ± 2.5 cm) and peaked and ended 1–2 months later. Precipitation (P) dominated the TWS changes and as the drought intensified, the response of the SMS to P deficit weakened over time, while that of GWS strengthened. The substantial P deficit induced by the abnormal westward extension of the WPSH in July and August 2022 was responsible for the drought.
{"title":"Investigating the historic drought in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022–2023 by jointly using GRACE, land surface models, and drought index","authors":"Yu Lai ,&nbsp;Bao Zhang ,&nbsp;Yibin Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102286","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102286","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Yangtze River Basin.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>A historic drought occurred in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in 2022 and lasted to 2023. This study used the generalized three-cornered hat method to integrate multi-source GRACE and land surface model data and generated reliable terrestrial water storage (TWS) and soil moisture storage (SMS) data, based on which we investigated how TWS deficits evolved during the drought and how SMS and groundwater storage (GWS) responded to the drought. We also analyzed the meteorological cause of this drought from the perspective of land water balance.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The TWS deficit emerged in July 2022, peaked in September at − 10.1 ± 1.0 cm, and ended in October 2023, lasting much longer than previously reported. The TWS, SMS, and GWS deficits all showed a distinct southwestward propagation pattern, different from the previously reported eastward movement. The GWS deficit (-9.3 cm) was much larger than the SMS deficit (-4.5 ± 2.5 cm) and peaked and ended 1–2 months later. Precipitation (P) dominated the TWS changes and as the drought intensified, the response of the SMS to P deficit weakened over time, while that of GWS strengthened. The substantial P deficit induced by the abnormal westward extension of the WPSH in July and August 2022 was responsible for the drought.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102286"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A two-stage game-based model for distribution of water consumption control indicators
IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102259
Wenrui Wang , Ting Wang , Bin Liu , Jinxia Sha , Jinjun You

Study region

Handan, China.

Study focus

Water consumption control indicators (WCCI) are key metrics used by China’s water authorities to regulate regional water use, promote conservation, and plan resource utilization. This study integrates an improved bankruptcy game model with a fuzzy cooperative game model to propose a two-stage decomposition method.

New hydrological insights

In the first stage, the bankruptcy game model divides WCCI into rigid and non-rigid indicators, ensuring rigid water demand is met while considering regional resources and socio-economic factors. In the second stage, the fuzzy cooperative game model optimizes non-rigid indicator distribution by forming water resource cooperation alliances, enhancing overall benefits. A case study in Handan, Hebei Province, China, was conducted using the “city-county” administrative division approach. WCCI decomposition was analyzed under two water availability scenarios in 2030: normal years (P = 50 %) and dry years (P = 75 %). Results show that under the bankruptcy game model, water demand satisfaction reaches 100 % in normal years and 80 %-98 % in dry years. Under the fuzzy cooperative game model, overall benefits increase by 12.9 % in normal years and 12.7 % in dry years, with water demand satisfaction ranging from 94 % to 109 % in normal years and 84 %-107 % in dry years. This method offers a new perspective on optimal water resource allocation, improving efficiency and fairness.
{"title":"A two-stage game-based model for distribution of water consumption control indicators","authors":"Wenrui Wang ,&nbsp;Ting Wang ,&nbsp;Bin Liu ,&nbsp;Jinxia Sha ,&nbsp;Jinjun You","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102259","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102259","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Handan, China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Water consumption control indicators (WCCI) are key metrics used by China’s water authorities to regulate regional water use, promote conservation, and plan resource utilization. This study integrates an improved bankruptcy game model with a fuzzy cooperative game model to propose a two-stage decomposition method.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights</h3><div>In the first stage, the bankruptcy game model divides WCCI into rigid and non-rigid indicators, ensuring rigid water demand is met while considering regional resources and socio-economic factors. In the second stage, the fuzzy cooperative game model optimizes non-rigid indicator distribution by forming water resource cooperation alliances, enhancing overall benefits. A case study in Handan, Hebei Province, China, was conducted using the “city-county” administrative division approach. WCCI decomposition was analyzed under two water availability scenarios in 2030: normal years (P = 50 %) and dry years (P = 75 %). Results show that under the bankruptcy game model, water demand satisfaction reaches 100 % in normal years and 80 %-98 % in dry years. Under the fuzzy cooperative game model, overall benefits increase by 12.9 % in normal years and 12.7 % in dry years, with water demand satisfaction ranging from 94 % to 109 % in normal years and 84 %-107 % in dry years. This method offers a new perspective on optimal water resource allocation, improving efficiency and fairness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102259"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Water use strategies and water conservation in Picea schrenkiana forests in the Kashi River Basin, China
IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102237
Yinxia Li, Yuhui Yang, Mao Ye, Ying Li, Bin Zou

Study region

The Kashi River Basin is located in northwestern Xinjiang, China.

Study focus

Using stable isotope techniques and incorporating the MixSIAR model, we studied the main water sources of Picea schrenkiana during the growing season. We estimated the evaporation loss of soil and river water using the Craig-Gordon and Rayleigh Fractionation models, respectively, to compare their evaporation loss and explore the reasons for these differences.

New hydrological insights

The results showed that (1) in spring 2024, Picea schrenkiana mainly utilized 0–60 cm of soil water; the utilization rate of each layer was 20.5 %, 21.0 %, and 20.6 %, respectively; in summer 2024, 0–40 cm of soil water was utilized, with the utilization rate of each layer reaching 25.1 % and 21.1 %, respectively; and in autumn 2024, 0–20 cm of soil water was utilized and the rate rose to 29.6 %. (2) The evaporation loss of soil water was lower than that of river water during the same period. In the summer of 2024, the evaporation loss of river water was 60 %, while the evaporation loss of soil water from 0–20 cm was the largest, only 36.6 %, reflecting the function of Picea schrenkiana forests to contain water. This study provides a reference for vegetation protection and management in the region as well as its ecological benefits.
{"title":"Water use strategies and water conservation in Picea schrenkiana forests in the Kashi River Basin, China","authors":"Yinxia Li,&nbsp;Yuhui Yang,&nbsp;Mao Ye,&nbsp;Ying Li,&nbsp;Bin Zou","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102237","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102237","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Kashi River Basin is located in northwestern Xinjiang, China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Using stable isotope techniques and incorporating the MixSIAR model, we studied the main water sources of Picea schrenkiana during the growing season. We estimated the evaporation loss of soil and river water using the Craig-Gordon and Rayleigh Fractionation models, respectively, to compare their evaporation loss and explore the reasons for these differences.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights</h3><div>The results showed that (1) in spring 2024, Picea schrenkiana mainly utilized 0–60 cm of soil water; the utilization rate of each layer was 20.5 %, 21.0 %, and 20.6 %, respectively; in summer 2024, 0–40 cm of soil water was utilized, with the utilization rate of each layer reaching 25.1 % and 21.1 %, respectively; and in autumn 2024, 0–20 cm of soil water was utilized and the rate rose to 29.6 %. (2) The evaporation loss of soil water was lower than that of river water during the same period. In the summer of 2024, the evaporation loss of river water was 60 %, while the evaporation loss of soil water from 0–20 cm was the largest, only 36.6 %, reflecting the function of Picea schrenkiana forests to contain water. This study provides a reference for vegetation protection and management in the region as well as its ecological benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102237"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Compound temporal-spatial extreme precipitation events in the Poyang Lake Basin of China
IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102270
Chao Deng , Yinchi Zhang , Miaomiao Ma , Ying Chen , Jianhui Wei , Harald Kunstmann , Lu Gao

Study region

The study region is the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB). As a typical humid subtropical basin in China, the PLB is crisscrossed by rivers and lakes, where frequent hydrological and meteorological processes occur.

Study focus

This study identified temporal extreme precipitation, spatial extreme precipitation, and compound temporal-spatial extreme precipitation events to investigate precipitation extremes. The differences in occurrence of compound widespread-persistent extreme precipitation (WPEP), persistent extreme precipitation (PEP) and widespread extreme precipitation (WEP) events were investigated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model.

New hydrological insights for the region

Extreme precipitation events characterized by high intensity and long duration were more likely to occur in the northern part of the PLB. The frequency of extreme precipitation showed an increasing trend in the central and northeastern regions of the PLB. The contribution of PEP increased from an average of 30.7 % during the period 1983–1992 to 37.2 % during 2013–2022. The WPEP event exhibited a prolonged duration, greater precipitation intensity, and higher precipitable water (PW) and water vapor mixing ratio at 2 m (Q2). Significant changes in PW and Q2 were observed prior to the occurrence of the PEP event. However, PW and Q2 values remained stable during WEP and WPEP events. The PLB was influenced by two water vapor sources, from the north and southwest during the WEP and WPEP events.
{"title":"Compound temporal-spatial extreme precipitation events in the Poyang Lake Basin of China","authors":"Chao Deng ,&nbsp;Yinchi Zhang ,&nbsp;Miaomiao Ma ,&nbsp;Ying Chen ,&nbsp;Jianhui Wei ,&nbsp;Harald Kunstmann ,&nbsp;Lu Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102270","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102270","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The study region is the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB). As a typical humid subtropical basin in China, the PLB is crisscrossed by rivers and lakes, where frequent hydrological and meteorological processes occur.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study identified temporal extreme precipitation, spatial extreme precipitation, and compound temporal-spatial extreme precipitation events to investigate precipitation extremes. The differences in occurrence of compound widespread-persistent extreme precipitation (WPEP), persistent extreme precipitation (PEP) and widespread extreme precipitation (WEP) events were investigated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Extreme precipitation events characterized by high intensity and long duration were more likely to occur in the northern part of the PLB. The frequency of extreme precipitation showed an increasing trend in the central and northeastern regions of the PLB. The contribution of PEP increased from an average of 30.7 % during the period 1983–1992 to 37.2 % during 2013–2022. The WPEP event exhibited a prolonged duration, greater precipitation intensity, and higher precipitable water (PW) and water vapor mixing ratio at 2 m (Q2). Significant changes in PW and Q2 were observed prior to the occurrence of the PEP event. However, PW and Q2 values remained stable during WEP and WPEP events. The PLB was influenced by two water vapor sources, from the north and southwest during the WEP and WPEP events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102270"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143511457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A novel hybrid machine learning framework for spatio-temporal analysis of reference evapotranspiration in India
IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102271
Dolon Banerjee , Sayantan Ganguly , Wen-Ping Tsai

Study region

The study focuses on the diverse climatic regions of India, spanning arid, semi-arid, sub-humid, and humid zones.

Study focus

This research employs a novel hybrid machine learning (ML) framework for precise spatio-temporal reference evapotranspiration (ETo) modelling from 1970 to 2024, addressing the variability in temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Three advanced ML models—Quantile-Adjusted xLSTM Network (QAxLNet), Quantile-Score Diffusion Model (QSDM), and Attentive Deep Quantile-Aware Autoencoder Network (ADAQNet)—are proposed and applied, focusing on relative humidity and temperature as critical predictors. Model validation, conducted with EEFlux-derived ETo data and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) benchmarks, revealed strong alignment across diverse climatic zones.

New hydrological insights for the region

The MPI-ESM1–2-HR model under SSP3–7.0 scenarios outperformed other CMIP6 models, with a correlation coefficient of 0.975 and spatial error of 3.55 mm. The ADAQNet demonstrated superior performance, with lowest errors RMSE (Train: 0.2247, Test: 0.2499), and R2 (Train: 0.96; Test: 0.9571) among the models. ETo declined at an average rate of 1.9 mm/year, indicating the role of climate change. ETo variability closely mirrored the spatial distribution of the National Building Code (NBC) of India. Seasonal variations were significant, with arid regions (Rajasthan, Gujarat) experiencing the highest increase (2.5–5.1 mm/year). Humid regions showed high sensitivity to RH forecasts, with up to 20 % ETo deviation. The study emphasizes the spatial, temporal, and seasonal variations of ETo across the region, highlighting its dependence on climatic factors.
{"title":"A novel hybrid machine learning framework for spatio-temporal analysis of reference evapotranspiration in India","authors":"Dolon Banerjee ,&nbsp;Sayantan Ganguly ,&nbsp;Wen-Ping Tsai","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102271","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102271","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The study focuses on the diverse climatic regions of India, spanning arid, semi-arid, sub-humid, and humid zones.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This research employs a novel hybrid machine learning (ML) framework for precise spatio-temporal reference evapotranspiration (ET<sub>o</sub>) modelling from 1970 to 2024, addressing the variability in temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Three advanced ML models—Quantile-Adjusted xLSTM Network (QAxLNet), Quantile-Score Diffusion Model (QSDM), and Attentive Deep Quantile-Aware Autoencoder Network (ADAQNet)—are proposed and applied, focusing on relative humidity and temperature as critical predictors. Model validation, conducted with EEFlux-derived ET<sub>o</sub> data and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) benchmarks, revealed strong alignment across diverse climatic zones.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The MPI-ESM1–2-HR model under SSP3–7.0 scenarios outperformed other CMIP6 models, with a correlation coefficient of 0.975 and spatial error of 3.55 mm. The ADAQNet demonstrated superior performance, with lowest errors RMSE (Train: 0.2247, Test: 0.2499), and R<sup>2</sup> (Train: 0.96; Test: 0.9571) among the models. ET<sub>o</sub> declined at an average rate of 1.9 mm/year, indicating the role of climate change. ET<sub>o</sub> variability closely mirrored the spatial distribution of the National Building Code (NBC) of India. Seasonal variations were significant, with arid regions (Rajasthan, Gujarat) experiencing the highest increase (2.5–5.1 mm/year). Humid regions showed high sensitivity to RH forecasts, with up to 20 % ET<sub>o</sub> deviation. The study emphasizes the spatial, temporal, and seasonal variations of ET<sub>o</sub> across the region, highlighting its dependence on climatic factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102271"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A technical framework for determining water consumption thresholds in the semi-arid Xiliao River Plain based on terrestrial water balance
IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102261
Xuanxuan Wang , Huan Liu , Yangwen Jia , Jianhua Wang , Xuewu Wei , Yuhua Wang , Xiaola Wang , Yefei Ji , Lei Dang , Peng Hu

Study regions

The Xiliao River Plain.

Study focus

This study proposed a technical framework for determining water consumption thresholds in semi-arid regions based on terrestrial water balance. The technical framework includes three parts: adaptability evaluation and selection of remote sensing products, calculation of agricultural and ecological water consumption, and determination of water consumption thresholds.

New hydrological insights for the region

This framework could separate agricultural and ecological water consumption, and effectively determining the water consumption thresholds. During the period of 1980–2022, agricultural water consumption increased significantly (p < 0.01) at the rate of 0.67 × 108 m3/year, but ecological water consumption decreased significantly (p < 0.05) at the rate of 0.20 × 108 m3/year. According to the type of major water-consuming sectors, the Xiliao River Plain was categorized into three types of regions: regions where agricultural water consumption accounted for the majority (AR), regions where ecological water consumption accounted for the majority (ER), and regions where agricultural and ecological water consumption together accounted for the majority (AER). For all three types of regions, a significant positive linear correlation between precipitation surplus coefficient and terrestrial water storage change was detected. To maintain terrestrial water balance, the proportion of total evapotranspiration consumption to precipitation should be limited to 76.3∼93.5 %. For AR, ER and AER, the proportion of major water-consuming sectors in precipitation should be controlled at 47.3∼63.1 %, 49.9∼62.7 % and 61.8∼80.0 %, respectively.
{"title":"A technical framework for determining water consumption thresholds in the semi-arid Xiliao River Plain based on terrestrial water balance","authors":"Xuanxuan Wang ,&nbsp;Huan Liu ,&nbsp;Yangwen Jia ,&nbsp;Jianhua Wang ,&nbsp;Xuewu Wei ,&nbsp;Yuhua Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaola Wang ,&nbsp;Yefei Ji ,&nbsp;Lei Dang ,&nbsp;Peng Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102261","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102261","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study regions</h3><div>The Xiliao River Plain.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study proposed a technical framework for determining water consumption thresholds in semi-arid regions based on terrestrial water balance. The technical framework includes three parts: adaptability evaluation and selection of remote sensing products, calculation of agricultural and ecological water consumption, and determination of water consumption thresholds.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>This framework could separate agricultural and ecological water consumption, and effectively determining the water consumption thresholds. During the period of 1980–2022, agricultural water consumption increased significantly (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01) at the rate of 0.67 × 10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup>/year, but ecological water consumption decreased significantly (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) at the rate of 0.20 × 10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup>/year. According to the type of major water-consuming sectors, the Xiliao River Plain was categorized into three types of regions: regions where agricultural water consumption accounted for the majority (AR), regions where ecological water consumption accounted for the majority (ER), and regions where agricultural and ecological water consumption together accounted for the majority (AER). For all three types of regions, a significant positive linear correlation between precipitation surplus coefficient and terrestrial water storage change was detected. To maintain terrestrial water balance, the proportion of total evapotranspiration consumption to precipitation should be limited to 76.3∼93.5 %. For AR, ER and AER, the proportion of major water-consuming sectors in precipitation should be controlled at 47.3∼63.1 %, 49.9∼62.7 % and 61.8∼80.0 %, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102261"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Widespread pH increase and geochemical trends in fifty boreal lakes: Evidence, prediction and plausible attribution to climate and permafrost thaw impacts across northeastern Alberta
IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102253
J.J. Gibson , A. Jaggi , F.J. Castrillon-Munoz

Study region

This study focuses on 50 boreal lakes and catchments situated in northeastern Alberta, Canada between 55.68°N – 59.72°N and 110.02°W – 115.46°W.

Study focus

Evidence for trends in chemical composition of lakes, including pH increases are provided using Mann-Kendall statistics, geochemical modelling, δ18O, δ2H, and δ13C, which are compared to trend statistics for climate, water balance, and groundwater indicators.

New hydrological insights for the region

Groundwater contributions are generally found to be increasing with water yield and carbon inputs as sites advance along the thaw trajectory. The exception to this is shield lakes which continue to be surface water dominant. Statistical analyses suggest widespread trends, both significant and non-significant, in geochemical parameters across the lake network including pH increases in 46 of 50 lakes. In shale-dominated plateau areas, pH trends are adequately described by changes in HCO3-, attributed mainly to carbon input associated with permafrost thaw. For these lakes, prediction improves little if other variables are considered, whereas for post thaw areas, prediction of pH trends improves if water yield trends are also considered. In sub-regions with appreciable carbonate, pH trend prediction improves significantly if values of δ13CDIC and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) are also considered. We postulate that recent pH trends across the region may only be temporary and that lake acidification may yet occur once permafrost thaw and related carbon imports diminish.
{"title":"Widespread pH increase and geochemical trends in fifty boreal lakes: Evidence, prediction and plausible attribution to climate and permafrost thaw impacts across northeastern Alberta","authors":"J.J. Gibson ,&nbsp;A. Jaggi ,&nbsp;F.J. Castrillon-Munoz","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>This study focuses on 50 boreal lakes and catchments situated in northeastern Alberta, Canada between 55.68°N – 59.72°N and 110.02°W – 115.46°W.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Evidence for trends in chemical composition of lakes, including pH increases are provided using Mann-Kendall statistics, geochemical modelling, δ<sup>18</sup>O, δ<sup>2</sup>H, and δ<sup>13</sup>C, which are compared to trend statistics for climate, water balance, and groundwater indicators.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Groundwater contributions are generally found to be increasing with water yield and carbon inputs as sites advance along the thaw trajectory. The exception to this is shield lakes which continue to be surface water dominant. Statistical analyses suggest widespread trends, both significant and non-significant, in geochemical parameters across the lake network including pH increases in 46 of 50 lakes. In shale-dominated plateau areas, pH trends are adequately described by changes in HCO<sub>3</sub><sup>-</sup>, attributed mainly to carbon input associated with permafrost thaw. For these lakes, prediction improves little if other variables are considered, whereas for post thaw areas, prediction of pH trends improves if water yield trends are also considered. In sub-regions with appreciable carbonate, pH trend prediction improves significantly if values of δ<sup>13</sup>C<sub>DIC</sub> and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) are also considered. We postulate that recent pH trends across the region may only be temporary and that lake acidification may yet occur once permafrost thaw and related carbon imports diminish.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102253"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143488065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies
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