Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献_第8页

Characterizing cold surge induced storm surge in the northern East China Sea: A 60-year hindcast reveals paradoxical trends in surge heights and return levels 东海北部寒潮风暴潮特征：60年的后验分析揭示了风暴潮高度和回归水平的矛盾趋势

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100835

Xuecheng Zhang , Luming Shi , Bingchen Liang , Guoxiang Wu , Zhenlu Wang

Recurrent cold surges represent a major hazardous weather phenomenon in the northern East China Sea. While their synoptic-scale meteorological processes are well-established, their impacts on oceanic dynamics, particularly storm surge behavior, remains insufficiently understood. This study presents the first detailed hindcast and analysis of storm surges associated with 780 cold surge events over the past 60 years. The investigation focuses on the spatiotemporal characteristics and long-term variability of these storm surges, with particular attention to changes in storm surge return levels. The results reveal a general decline in the occurrence frequency, annual maxima, and spatial extent of cold surge induced storm surges. However, a paradoxical increase in surge height return levels is observed across most coastal regions. This counterintuitive trend is attributed to shifts in the surge height distribution, characterized by a rising proportion of high-percentile surge events and a decreasing occurrence of moderate-percentile surges. This redistribution alters the exceedance probability curve by flattening the upper tail of the probability density, subsequently leading to increased 20-year and 50-year return level estimates. On a monthly scale, February exhibits the most intense and widespread storm surges. Long-term trends are evident in transitional months associated with the onset and weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Upward trends in maximum storm surges are found in September and March, while a declining trend is observed in April. These findings provide new insights into the evolving nature of cold surge induced storm surges and their implications for coastal disaster management and mitigation strategies.

反复出现的寒潮是东海北部主要的危险天气现象。虽然它们的天气尺度气象过程已经确立，但它们对海洋动力学的影响，特别是对风暴潮行为的影响，仍然没有得到充分的了解。本研究首次对过去60年来与780次寒潮事件相关的风暴潮进行了详细的预报和分析。研究重点是这些风暴潮的时空特征和长期变异，特别关注风暴潮回归水平的变化。结果表明，寒潮诱发风暴潮的发生频率、年最大值和空间范围总体呈下降趋势。然而，在大多数沿海地区观测到浪涌高度返回水平的矛盾增加。这种违反直觉的趋势归因于浪涌高度分布的变化，其特征是高百分位数浪涌事件的比例上升，而中等百分位数浪涌的发生率下降。这种再分配使概率密度的上尾变平，从而改变了超越概率曲线，从而导致20年和50年的回报水平估计数增加。按月计算，2月是风暴潮最强烈、范围最广的月份。在与东亚冬季风的开始和减弱有关的过渡月份，长期趋势是明显的。最大风暴潮在9月和3月呈上升趋势，4月呈下降趋势。这些发现为了解寒潮引起的风暴潮的演变性质及其对沿海灾害管理和减灾战略的影响提供了新的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Differential sensitivities of three types of compound drought and heatwave events to human-induced climate change across the globe 全球三种类型的复合干旱和热浪事件对人为气候变化的差异敏感性

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100836

Shuzhe Huang , Siqi Wang , Chao Wang , Xiang Zhang , Jianya Gong , Nengcheng Chen

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events threaten ecosystems, water security, and human health through mutually reinforcing thermal and hydrological stress. Using CMIP6 multi-model simulations, we quantify influences of human-induced climate change on three CDHW types (i.e., precipitation-based (CMDH), runoff-based (CHDH), and soil-moisture-based (CSDH)) by isolating greenhouse gas, aerosol, and natural forcings (1960–2014). Greenhouse gas forcing emerges as the dominant driver of global CDHW intensification, with CSDH showing the strongest and most coherent amplification of CDHW frequency and severity. Aerosols partially offset warming-induced increases, particularly in monsoon regions. Interpretable machine learning reveals temperature as the primary driver, with precipitation and vapor pressure deficit playing event-dependent roles. Future projections (2015–2100) under high-emission pathways indicate significant severity growth (6.8 %, 9.4 %, and 15.4 % for CMDH, CHDH, and CSDH on average) and sharply rising population exposure (with slope of 0.22, 0.23, and 0.65 for CMDH, CHDH, and CSDH) concentrated in tropical and temperate regions. These findings highlight the urgency of aggressive mitigation and adaptation strategies that address the compound nature of climate extremes and the spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic impacts.

复合干旱和热浪（CDHW）事件通过相互加强的热和水文压力，威胁着生态系统、水安全和人类健康。利用CMIP6多模式模拟，通过隔离温室气体、气溶胶和自然强迫（1960-2014），量化了人类引起的气候变化对三种CDHW类型（即基于降水（CMDH）、基于径流（CHDH）和基于土壤湿度（CSDH））的影响。温室气体强迫是全球CDHW增强的主要驱动因素，CSDH对CDHW的频率和强度表现出最强和最一致的放大。气溶胶部分抵消了由变暖引起的增加，特别是在季风区。可解释的机器学习表明，温度是主要驱动因素，降水和蒸汽压赤字起着事件依赖的作用。在高排放路径下的未来预测（2015-2100年）表明，严重程度的显著增长（CMDH、CHDH和CSDH的平均增长分别为6.8%、9.4%和15.4%）和人口暴露量的急剧增加（CMDH、CHDH和CSDH的斜率分别为0.22、0.23和0.65）集中在热带和温带地区。这些发现突出表明，迫切需要采取积极的减缓和适应战略，解决极端气候的复合性质和人为影响的空间异质性。

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引用次数: 0

Synergistic effects of precipitation and phase changes intensify future rain-on-snow events in the Tianshan and Pamir regions, Central Asia 降水和相位变化的协同效应加剧了中亚天山和帕米尔高原地区未来的雨雪事件

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100833

Tao Yang , Lanhai Li , Rafiq Hamdi , Fengqi Cui , Zhaojun Zheng , Philippe De Maeyer , Xi Chen

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events significantly influence hydrological extremes, while their future dynamics across the Tianshan and Pamir regions remain insufficiently assessed. This study utilized WRF dynamically downscaling simulations driven by bias-corrected CMIP6 data to investigate changes in ROS characteristics and water available for runoff contributions during the historical (1995–2014) and mid-century (2041–2060) periods under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Results showed that the historical average annual ROS frequency, daily maximum ROS intensity, and total annual ROS intensity were 1.86 days, 13.52 mm, and 46.02 mm, respectively, with the highest ROS frequency occurring at elevations between 2250 and 2500 m. Regionally, ROS activity was most intense along the windward slopes of the Western Tianshan, Northern Tianshan, and Western Pamir. Seasonally, events peaked in spring, comprising 50.64 % of annual occurrences, with higher contributions in the Pamir (57.09 %) and Western Tianshan (52.65 %). The above indices were projected to increase by 49.57 %, 43.39 %, and 65.67 % under SSP245 and by 49.33 %, 45.44 %, and 66.63 % under SSP585. The annual contribution of snowmelt to total water available for runoff declined by 11.97 percentage points (pp) and 11.39 pp under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, indicating a reduced role of snow-driven runoff processes. In contrast, ROS-induced snowmelt contributions to total snowmelt climbed by 1.42 pp and 1.46 pp; consequently, the ROS intensity's contribution to water available for runoff increased by 1.32 pp and 1.35 pp under the respective scenarios. These shifts were primarily driven by increased annual precipitation (295 and 288 mm), decreased snowfall/precipitation ratio (−8.53 pp and −8.30 pp), and increased all intense rainfall events (11.63 and 11.36 days) under warming (2.49 and 2.51 °C). Consequently, the hydrological system became more susceptible to ROS-driven extreme events. These findings revealed an increased risk of ROS-induced flooding potential under climate warming and underscored a potential seasonal mismatch between runoff supply and water demand in arid alpine regions.

雨雪事件对水文极端事件有显著影响，但其在天山和帕米尔高原的未来动态尚不充分。本研究利用基于偏差校正的CMIP6数据驱动的WRF动态降尺度模拟，研究了SSP245和SSP585情景下历史时期（1995-2014年）和本世纪中期（2041-2060年）ROS特征和径流可利用水量的变化。结果表明：该地区历史平均年ROS频次、日最大ROS强度和年总ROS强度分别为1.86 d、13.52 mm和46.02 mm，其中海拔2250 ~ 2500 m为最高；从区域上看，ROS活动在西天山、北天山和西帕米尔高原迎风坡最为强烈。从季节上看，春季为高峰，占年发生率的50.64%，其中帕米尔高原（57.09%）和西天山贡献率较高（52.65%）。上述指标在SSP245下分别增长49.57%、43.39%和65.67%，在SSP585下分别增长49.33%、45.44%和66.63%。在SSP245和SSP585情景下，融雪对径流总可用水量的年贡献率分别下降11.97和11.39个百分点，表明雪驱动径流过程的作用减弱。相反，ros引起的融雪对总融雪的贡献增加了1.42和1.46 pp；因此，在不同情景下，ROS强度对径流可利用水的贡献分别增加了1.32和1.35 pp。升温（2.49°C和2.51°C）下，年降水量增加（295和288 mm），降雪量/降水量比减少（- 8.53 pp和- 8.30 pp），强降水事件增加（11.63天和11.36天）。因此，水文系统更容易受到ros驱动的极端事件的影响。这些发现揭示了气候变暖下ros引发洪水的风险增加，并强调了干旱高寒地区径流供应和水需求之间潜在的季节性不匹配。

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引用次数: 0

Hotter summers, heavier showers: Global warming and its impact on Swiss short-duration rainfall extremes 更热的夏季，更多的阵雨：全球变暖及其对瑞士短时间极端降雨的影响

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100829

Nadav Peleg , Marika Koukoula , Jan Rajczak , Sven Kotlarski , Eleonora Dallan , Francesco Marra

Short-duration extreme rainfall events are the main trigger for natural hazards such as flash floods and debris flows. As a result of climate change, extreme convective summer events are expected to intensify markedly in mountainous regions such as the Swiss Alps, although the magnitude of intensification on a sub-daily basis is uncertain. Here, we quantify potential future changes in Swiss sub-daily extreme rainfall using the physically-based TENAX model, which captures the dependence of extreme rainfall on temperature. An independent evaluation against MeteoSwiss observation-based extreme value analyses shows that TENAX estimates differ by less than 10% at 60% of stations for 10 min and 72% for hourly durations over the 10-year return period. TENAX-estimated rainfall-temperature scaling rates in Switzerland are around 10%

° C

⁻¹ for 10-min extremes and 7%

° C

⁻¹ for hourly durations. Applied with the Klima CH2025 climate projections that are CMIP5-based, results indicate that by the time global warming attains a 3 °C temperature increase compared to present-day conditions, 10-min rainfall return levels could increase by up to 40%, while hourly extremes intensify by approximately 20%. The projected changes exhibit strong spatial variability, with high-altitude regions experiencing greater intensification than lowlands due to stronger rainfall-temperature scaling and an amplified warming rate. Despite an overall reduction in summer rainfall event frequency, extreme events are expected to occur more frequently, with current 100-year return levels projected to shift to 30-year return periods in some regions. These results highlight the growing flood risk in Swiss cities and the increasing threat of rainfall-driven hazards in mountainous areas, underscoring the urgent need for proactive adaptation measures.

短时间极端降雨事件是山洪、泥石流等自然灾害的主要诱因。由于气候变化，夏季极端对流事件预计将在瑞士阿尔卑斯山等山区显著加剧，尽管以次日为基础的增强幅度尚不确定。在这里，我们使用基于物理的TENAX模型量化了瑞士亚日极端降雨的潜在未来变化，该模型捕捉了极端降雨对温度的依赖性。对MeteoSwiss基于观测的极值分析的独立评估表明，TENAX在10年回归期内对60%的站点的10分钟估计误差小于10%，对每小时持续时间的估计误差小于72%。tenax估计瑞士的降雨温度缩放率约为10分钟极端值的10%°C - 1和每小时持续时间的7%°C - 1。应用基于cmip5的Klima CH2025气候预估，结果表明，与当前条件相比，当全球变暖达到3°C时，10分钟降雨回归水平可能增加多达40%，而每小时极端事件可能增加约20%。预估的变化表现出强烈的空间变异性，由于更强的降雨温度尺度和放大的升温速率，高海拔地区比低地经历更大的强化。尽管夏季降雨事件的频率总体上有所减少，但极端事件预计将更加频繁地发生，在一些地区，目前的百年一遇水平预计将转变为30年一次。这些结果凸显了瑞士城市日益增长的洪水风险和山区降雨灾害日益增加的威胁，强调了采取主动适应措施的迫切需要。

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引用次数: 0

From mild to extreme heatwaves: Examining trends in North America 从温和到极端热浪：审视北美的趋势

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100831

Élise Comeau , Alejandro Di Luca , Megan Kirchmeier-Young

Extreme heat is associated with negative consequences. Previous research has shown an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat in the 20th and early 21st centuries in most of North America. Similar trends are expected in the next decades. These increases are primarily driven by a shift of the temperature distribution towards warmer temperatures. Despite this rich literature, few studies have considered how past trends of milder heatwaves may differ from those of more extreme heatwaves. Here we quantify recent intensity and duration trends of North American heatwaves according to their severity, a novel metric which measures the intensity of a heatwave relative to other local contemporaneous heatwaves. We measure heatwave intensity using three different metrics (cumulative, average and maximum). These metrics are based on the anomaly of the daily maximum temperature relative to the local non-stationary 90th percentile. Heatwaves are then categorized as either mild, moderate or extreme in their severity. Our findings indicate that heatwave temperatures have been increasing in most of North America between 1940 and 2019 for every season. However, heatwave temperature anomalies have remained stable over this same period. Additionally, higher heatwave severity is linked to less noisy intensity trends. This cannot be explained solely by changes in the mean of the temperature distribution over time. Our results have important implications for the current estimation of heatwave intensity trends and suggest that the impact of their severity should be considered.

极端高温与负面后果有关。先前的研究表明，在20世纪和21世纪初，北美大部分地区极端高温的频率和强度都有所增加。预计未来几十年也会出现类似的趋势。这些增加主要是由温度分布向更高温度的转变所驱动的。尽管有丰富的文献，但很少有研究考虑到过去温和热浪的趋势与更极端热浪的趋势有何不同。在这里，我们根据热浪的严重程度量化了北美热浪的近期强度和持续时间趋势，这是一种衡量热浪相对于其他当地同期热浪强度的新指标。我们使用三种不同的指标（累积、平均和最大值）来测量热浪强度。这些指标是基于日最高温度相对于当地非平稳第90百分位数的异常。热浪的严重程度被分为轻度、中度和极端。我们的研究结果表明，从1940年到2019年，北美大部分地区每个季节的热浪温度都在上升。然而，热浪温度异常在同一时期保持稳定。此外，热浪的严重程度越高，噪声强度的趋势也越弱。这不能仅仅用温度分布随时间的平均值的变化来解释。我们的研究结果对当前估计热浪强度趋势具有重要意义，并建议应考虑其严重程度的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Human influence on the unprecedented 2022 extreme dragon boat water event in South China: Insights from historical and projected perspectives 人类对2022年中国南方前所未有的极端龙舟水事件的影响：从历史和预测的角度看

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100830

Shen'ao Li, Hui Cai, Wenxuan Zhang, Wenjun Liang, Kaixi Wang, Dong Chen, Shaobo Qiao, Xian Zhu

During May–June 2022, South China encountered an unprecedented extreme dragon boat water event (2022 EDBWE), characterized by persistent heavy precipitation. The maximum 31-day cumulative precipitation (Rx31day) from May 21 to June 20, was anomalously 74 % higher than the historical average, breaking previous records and resulting in substantial socioeconomic damage and loss of life. Nevertheless, the extent to which human-induced climate change influenced the occurrence of the 2022 EDBWE, as well as its implications for the future likelihood of analogous events under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, remains inadequately quantified. This study aims to address these uncertainties by employing data from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) and the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We evaluate the effect of anthropogenic forcing on extreme precipitation similar to the 2022 EDBWE both in historical context and under future projections for South China. The results indicate that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of the event similar to the 2022 EDBWE by approximately 64 % (90 % confidence interval: 35 % to +90 %). Specifically, the greenhouse gas-only (GHG) forcing has raised the probability by +66 % (+10 % to +91 %), while aerosol-only (AER) forcing has reduced the probability by −28 % (−564 % to +71 %). Furthermore, under SSP scenarios—SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5—the likelihood of similar events rises significantly. By the end of the 21st century, the probability of an event akin to the 2022 EDBWE is projected to be about 11 times greater under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) compared to historical climate conditions. This study offers crucial insights for designing effective strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change, especially in regions prone to extreme precipitation events.

2022年5 - 6月，华南地区遭遇了一次前所未有的极端龙舟水事件（2022 EDBWE），其特征是持续强降水。5月21日至6月20日的最大31天累积降水（rx31天）比历史平均水平异常高出74%，打破了以往的记录，造成了重大的社会经济损失和生命损失。然而，人类引起的气候变化对2022年EDBWE发生的影响程度，以及它对不同共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景下类似事件未来可能性的影响，仍然没有充分量化。本研究旨在利用耦合模式比对项目第6阶段（CMIP6）中的探测与归因模式比对项目（DAMIP）和情景模式比对项目（SIMIP）的数据来解决这些不确定性。在历史背景和未来预测下，我们评估了与2022年EDBWE相似的人为强迫对中国南方极端降水的影响。结果表明，人为强迫使类似2022年EDBWE事件的概率增加了约64%（90%置信区间：35%至+ 90%）。具体而言，仅温室气体（GHG）强迫将概率提高了66%(+ 10%至+ 91%)，而仅气溶胶（AER）强迫将概率降低了28%（- 564%至+ 71%）。此外，在SSP情景（ssp1 -2.6、SSP2-4.5和ssp5 -8.5）下，类似事件发生的可能性显著上升。到21世纪末，在高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下，与历史气候条件相比，预计类似2022年EDBWE事件的概率将高出约11倍。这项研究为设计有效的策略来减缓和适应气候变化提供了重要的见解，特别是在容易发生极端降水事件的地区。

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引用次数: 0

Conditional attribution of cold extremes in Canada: The role of atmospheric circulation in a changing climate 加拿大极端寒冷的条件归因：大气环流在气候变化中的作用

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100826

Yongxiao Liang, Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young, Bin Yu

This study examines the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, specifically the Pacific-North American (PNA), Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climate indices, on the likelihood of cold extremes across Canada, utilizing ERA5 data and CMIP6 model simulations. The analysis reveals that PNA is closely linked to cold anomalies in western Canada, ABNA influences the west and central regions, and NAO impacts eastern Canada. A decrease in the likelihood of cold extremes is attributed to human-induced climate change, using both unconditional event attribution and event attribution conditioned on the observed circulation patterns. Under similar atmospheric circulation patterns as observed, human-induced climate change reduced the likelihood of recent cold extremes by 3–10 times across Canadian regions in the current climate compared to the pre-industrial climate. Under both the current and pre-industrial climates, negative PNA/ABNA phases and positive NAO phases can increase the likelihood of regular cold extremes, with synergies between indices significantly amplifying risks. Conversely, the opposite phases can reinforce the climate signal, further reducing the probability of cold extremes. These findings highlight the critical role of natural variability in cold extreme dynamics, offering valuable insights for improved climate prediction, attribution, and regional adaptation strategies in Canada.

本研究利用ERA5数据和CMIP6模式模拟，研究了大尺度大气环流模式，特别是太平洋-北美（PNA）、亚洲-白令-北美（ABNA）和北大西洋涛动（NAO）气候指数对加拿大极端寒冷可能性的影响。分析表明，PNA与加拿大西部的冷异常密切相关，ABNA影响西部和中部地区，NAO影响加拿大东部地区。利用无条件事件归因和以观测到的环流模式为条件的事件归因，极端寒冷发生的可能性的降低可归因于人为引起的气候变化。在观测到的类似大气环流模式下，与工业化前气候相比，人类引起的气候变化使加拿大地区当前气候中最近极端寒冷的可能性降低了3-10倍。在当前和工业化前气候条件下，负的PNA/ABNA阶段和正的NAO阶段都增加了常规极端寒冷发生的可能性，且指数之间的协同效应显著放大了风险。相反，相反的相位可以强化气候信号，进一步降低极端寒冷的可能性。这些发现强调了自然变率在寒冷极端动态中的关键作用，为改进加拿大的气候预测、归因和区域适应策略提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

The relative contribution of physical processes leading the May 2024 heat wave in Cuba using a novel temperature anomaly analysis 利用一种新的温度异常分析分析导致2024年5月古巴热浪的物理过程的相对贡献

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100827

Albenis Pérez-Alarcón , Rogert Sorí , Milica Stojanovic , Daniela Lobaina-Castillo , Beatriz Velázquez-Zaldivar , Ricardo M. Trigo , Raquel Nieto , Luis Gimeno

Several weather stations reported record-breaking air maximum temperatures in May 2024 in Cuba. While the general mechanisms driving heat waves (HWs) in this region are known, the relative contribution of adiabatic, diabatic, and advective processes in causing the near-surface temperature anomalies (T′) remains unclear. Addressing this knowledge gap, this study examines the driver mechanisms of these abnormally high temperatures and quantifies the contributions of these physical processes. Unlike previous studies that often focused on individual processes, we applied a novel T′ decomposition and source analysis approach along air parcel backward trajectories to achieve this goal. Results show that most of the Cuban territory was under HW conditions, particularly the central and western regions, which reported T′ reaching 3–4 °C (considering the 1991–2020 average). The T′ decomposition framework revealed the local-origin sources for T'. Beneath clear skies, subsidence and increased insolation related to high pressures on the surface and high geopotential centres in the lower and middle atmosphere favoured adiabatic warming as the primary mechanism for rising temperatures, followed by advective processes with a weak contribution. Meanwhile, diabatic processes negatively contributed. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of the drivers' mechanisms of HWs in Cuba by quantitatively corroborating the importance of local warming processes and providing a guide for examining such extremes in the context of global warming.

几个气象站报告了古巴2024年5月破纪录的最高气温。虽然该地区驱动热浪（HWs）的一般机制是已知的，但绝热过程、绝热过程和平流过程在引起近地表温度异常（T’）中的相对贡献仍不清楚。为了解决这一知识差距，本研究考察了这些异常高温的驱动机制，并量化了这些物理过程的贡献。与以往的研究不同，我们采用了一种新颖的T′分解和源分析方法，沿着空气包裹的反向轨迹来实现这一目标。结果表明，古巴大部分领土处于高温条件下，特别是中部和西部地区，报告温度达到3-4°C（考虑到1991-2020年的平均值）。T′分解框架揭示了T′的本地来源。在晴朗的天空下，与地面高压和低层和中层高位势中心相关的沉降和日晒增加有利于绝热变暖，这是温度上升的主要机制，其次是平流过程，贡献较小。同时，绝热过程负贡献。总的来说，这项研究通过定量地证实了当地变暖过程的重要性，并为在全球变暖的背景下检查这些极端事件提供了指导，增强了我们对古巴HWs驱动机制的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Climatology and trends of severe storm environments in subtropical South America 南美亚热带强风暴环境的气候学和趋势

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100820

Letícia de Oliveira dos Santos , John T. Allen , Ernani L. Nascimento

The assessment of trends in severe storm activity in South America is hampered by the lack of local databases of long-term severe weather reports. To address this limitation, a regional proxy developed to characterize South American severe storm environments (SEV) is applied to hourly data from ERA5 reanalysis over subtropical South America from 1980 to 2021. Regions of frequent SEV conditions were confirmed in the Andes foothills and Sierras de Córdoba in west-central Argentina, as well as in the Argentina–Brazil–Paraguay (ABP) triple border. Annual trends reveal a decrease in SEV conditions for the Argentinean hotspots and in central Brazil, primarily attributed to a reduction in low-level moisture, which leads to less CAPE. Seasonal trends are also negative in the SEV hotspots in west-central Argentina, but positive trends are found across the Argentina–Uruguay border during summer and near the ABP triple border region during spring. These positive seasonal trends are mainly driven by enhanced deep-layer wind shear.

由于缺乏长期恶劣天气报告的当地数据库，对南美洲强风暴活动趋势的评估受到阻碍。为了解决这一限制，开发了一个表征南美强风暴环境（SEV）的区域代理，将其应用于1980年至2021年南美副热带地区ERA5再分析的每小时数据。在阿根廷中西部的安第斯山麓和Córdoba山脉以及阿根廷-巴西-巴拉圭（ABP）三国边界地区，SEV条件频繁发生。年度趋势显示，阿根廷热点地区和巴西中部的SEV条件减少，主要是由于低层水分减少，导致CAPE减少。在阿根廷中西部的SEV热点地区，季节性趋势也是负的，但在夏季阿根廷-乌拉圭边境和春季ABP三重边境地区附近发现了正趋势。这些正的季节趋势主要是由增强的深层风切变驱动的。

引用次数: 0

A novel hybrid framework of high-resolution flood susceptibility mapping in ungauged mountainous regions 未测量山区高分辨率洪水易感性制图的新型混合框架

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100822

Kai Li, Linmao Guo, Genxu Wang, Jihui Gao, Jiapei Ma, Jinlong Li, Peng Huang, Biying Zhai, Xiangyang Sun

Flood susceptibility mapping in mountainous regions remains a critical tool for mitigating escalating flood risks in the context of climate change. However, its accuracy is constrained by data scarcity of flood inventory maps and uncertainties in flood susceptibility mapping. This study addresses these gaps by introducing a novel hybrid framework that integrates a physically based Topography-based Subsurface Storm Flow (Top-SSF) model, a terrain-processed Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) model, and Random Forest (RF) model to achieve high-resolution (15 m) flood susceptibility mapping. Trained and tested on data from 80 gauged catchments, the hybrid framework demonstrated excellent performance, with training and test AUC of 0.995 and 0.992, respectively. Its robustness and applicability were subsequently validated against two independent historical flood datasets spanning 2000–2024, yielding high AUC values of 0.895 and 0.969, respectively. Sensitivity analysis identified slope, Topographic Position Index (TPI), and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) as key drivers, collectively contributing 80.46 % to flood susceptibility. Finally, we used the hybrid framework to produce the first high-resolution flood susceptibility map for the Southwest Mountainous Region of China, with potential to significantly enhance early warning systems and improve flood management effectiveness.

在气候变化的背景下，山区洪水易感性地图仍然是缓解不断升级的洪水风险的重要工具。但其精度受到洪水库存量图数据稀缺性和洪水易感度图不确定性的制约。本研究通过引入一种新的混合框架来解决这些差距，该框架集成了基于物理的基于地形的地下风暴流（Top-SSF）模型、地形处理的比最近排水高度（HAND）模型和随机森林（RF）模型，以实现高分辨率（15米）洪水易感性映射。对80个计量流域的数据进行训练和测试，混合框架表现出优异的性能，训练和测试AUC分别为0.995和0.992。随后，在2000-2024年两个独立的历史洪水数据集上验证了其鲁棒性和适用性，分别获得了0.895和0.969的高AUC值。敏感性分析表明，坡度、地形位置指数（TPI）和地形湿度指数（TWI）是主要驱动因素，对洪涝易感性的贡献率为80.46%。最后，我们利用混合框架绘制了中国西南山区的第一张高分辨率洪水易感性图，具有显著增强预警系统和提高洪水管理效率的潜力。

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