Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献_第9页

Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patterns 欧洲热浪的趋势和变率及其与大尺度环流模式的关系

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100794

Loredana Boboc , Mihai Dima , Petru Vaideanu , Monica Ionita

Heat waves, defined by consecutive days of abnormally high temperatures exceeding local or regional norms, have been extensively studied during the summer season. However, their characteristics and driving forces in mid-to-late spring (April and May) and early autumn (September) remain poorly understood. This study employed Empirical Orthogonal Functions and composite analysis to investigate the frequency, trend, and spatio-temporal variability of heat waves across Europe from 1921 to 2021. Our analysis reveals a significant upward trend in heat wave occurrences across most European regions, with a notable surge in the last three decades, beginning in the early 1990s. Furthermore, an increase in heat wave events has been observed in both mid-to-late spring and early autumn. The decade of 2011-2021 exhibited the highest number of recorded heat waves, with particularly intense periods, in terms of both frequency and spatial extent, occurring in 2003, 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2018. The most pronounced rise in heat wave frequency is evident in southern regions, including Spain, France, and Italy, extending through Central Europe and the Fennoscandian Peninsula. Southern and eastern regions display the most significant increase compared to previous periods. We identified three distinct blocking patterns potentially influencing the observed spatial and temporal variability of heat waves across spring, summer, and autumn. The first pattern corresponds to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The second is characterized by a blocking pattern over Fennoscandia (Scandinavian blocking). The third exhibits a high-pressure system in the west and low-pressure anomalies in the east. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the seasonal characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and driving forces of heat waves in Europe.

热浪的定义是连续几天的异常高温超过当地或区域标准，在夏季被广泛研究。但在春中后期（4、5月）和初秋（9月），其特征和驱动力尚不清楚。本研究采用经验正交函数和复合分析方法，研究了1921 - 2021年欧洲热浪的频率、趋势和时空变异性。我们的分析显示，在欧洲大部分地区，热浪的发生有明显的上升趋势，从20世纪90年代初开始，在过去的30年里出现了显著的激增。此外，在春中后期和初秋都观察到热浪事件的增加。2011-2021年是有记录的热浪次数最多的十年，从频率和空间范围来看，2003年、2007年、2012年、2015年和2018年都出现了特别强烈的热浪。热浪频率上升最明显的是南部地区，包括西班牙、法国和意大利，并延伸到中欧和芬诺斯坎迪亚半岛。与前几个时期相比，南部和东部地区的增长最为显著。我们确定了三种不同的阻塞模式，这些模式可能影响春季、夏季和秋季热浪的时空变化。第一种模式对应于北大西洋涛动的正相位。第二种是芬诺斯坎迪亚上空的阻塞模式（斯堪的纳维亚阻塞）。三是西部为高压系统，东部为低压异常。这些发现有助于更全面地了解欧洲热浪的季节特征、潜在机制和驱动力。

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引用次数: 0

Impacts of solar radiation modification on temperature extremes and heatwaves in Southeast Asia 太阳辐射变化对东南亚极端温度和热浪的影响

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100789

Zeqian Feng , Mou Leong Tan , Mohd Amirul Mahamud , Joon Chuah , Fei Zhang

Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a rapid solution to mitigate temperature rise, but its effects on regional temperature extremes and heatwaves remain underexplored. Southeast Asia, a region highly vulnerable to climate change due to its unique environmental and socio-economic conditions, necessitates detailed assessments of SRM impacts. This study evaluates the effects of SRM using two scenarios, G6Solar and G6Sulfur, alongside traditional emissions pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Downscaled and bias-corrected GeoMIP6 datasets are analyzed for selected temperature and heatwave indices across 20 Southeast Asian sub-regions from 2020 to 2099. Under SSP585, annual maximum temperatures (TXx) by 2099 are projected to increase by 4–6 °C relative to the baseline, with heatwave characteristics intensifying substantially. Heatwave duration (HWD) could rise by 40–180 days, while occurrences (HWN) may increase 3–5 times, and intensity (HWA) could escalate by 5–6 °C. In contrast, SRM scenarios effectively moderate these impacts, aligning closer to the moderate SSP245 scenario. Between the two SRM approaches, G6Sulfur proves slightly more effective than G6Solar in reducing temperature extremes particularly in continental regions. Under SRM, heatwave frequency, duration, and intensity are less severe compared to SSP585, though spatial variability in effectiveness is observed and with minimal differences in mainland Southeast Asia. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of SRM's impacts on temperature extremes and heatwaves in Southeast Asia, utilizing a multi-model ensemble across multiple SRM and SSP scenarios. By focusing on a region often underrepresented in SRM research, this work offers critical insights for policymakers considering SRM as a climate mitigation strategy.

太阳辐射调节（SRM）被认为是缓解气温上升的一种快速解决方案，但其对区域极端温度和热浪的影响尚未得到充分研究。东南亚由于其独特的环境和社会经济条件，极易受到气候变化的影响，因此有必要详细评估SRM的影响。本研究使用G6Solar和g6硫磺两种情景，以及传统的排放途径（SSP245和SSP585）来评估SRM的影响。对2020 - 2099年东南亚20个次区域的选定温度和热浪指数进行了降尺度和偏差校正的GeoMIP6数据集分析。在SSP585条件下，预计到2099年的年最高气温（TXx）将相对于基线升高4-6°C，热浪特征将显著增强。热浪持续时间（HWD）可能增加40-180天，发生次数（HWN）可能增加3-5倍，强度（HWA）可能升高5-6°C。相比之下，SRM情景有效地缓和了这些影响，更接近于温和的SSP245情景。在两种SRM方法之间，g6硫磺在减少极端温度方面比G6Solar略微有效，特别是在大陆地区。在SRM条件下，热浪的频率、持续时间和强度较SSP585弱，但其有效性存在空间变异，且在东南亚大陆差异极小。本研究利用多个SRM和SSP情景的多模式集合，全面评估了SRM对东南亚极端温度和热浪的影响。通过关注在SRM研究中往往代表性不足的地区，这项工作为考虑SRM作为气候缓解战略的政策制定者提供了关键的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamical systems methods to understand projected heatwave intensification 理解预估热浪增强的动力系统方法

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100791

Eylon Vakrat, Paul J. Kushner

Heatwaves pose well-known health dangers, and carry socio-economic and ecological consequences. Blocking highs typically drive such heatwaves during the European summer. The dynamics, surface impacts, and sensitivity to climate forcing of such events are of great interest, but because analysis of these events is sensitive to methodological details, a multi-faceted approach is needed to derive robust results. Such an analysis is carried out here, for observations and future projections. Heatwaves at meteorological stations, defined in terms of the discomfort index, which combines temperature and humidity, are well-captured in reanalysis. Reanalysis also reveals an expected equivalent-barotropic anticyclonic anomaly, with anomalously slow midtropospheric westerlies, associated with these heatwaves. A strong spatial correspondence to this structure is also found with a dynamical-systems theoretic analysis. The latter extracts the most-persistent patterns of midtropospheric flow in terms of the so-called ‘persistence metric’,

θ^{- 1}

. Heatwaves and blocks are far more likely to occur during persistent states. Historic and end-of-21st-century projections capture similar behavior, and the distribution of projected

θ^{- 1}

remains largely unchanged, indicating little change in extreme-event persistence. Neither the frequency nor the duration of persistent blocks changes in end-of-century projections, but heatwave intensity does increase. The conclusion is thus that the projected intensification of heatwaves arises from a thermodynamic mechanism and not a dynamic one. This conclusion depends on removing a multi-year running mean background from the flow for the persistence analysis. Without this high-pass filtering, a projected secular increase in persistence arises as the flow becomes characterized by a regional warming trend pattern.

热浪造成众所周知的健康危害，并带来社会经济和生态后果。在欧洲的夏季，阻塞的高温通常会引发这样的热浪。这些事件的动力学、地表影响和对气候强迫的敏感性引起了极大的兴趣，但由于这些事件的分析对方法细节很敏感，因此需要采用多方面的方法来得出可靠的结果。在此进行这样的分析，以便观察和预测未来。气象站的热浪，根据不适指数来定义，它结合了温度和湿度，在再分析中被很好地捕获。再分析还揭示了预期的等效正压反气旋异常，以及与这些热浪相关的对流层中异常缓慢的西风带。通过动力系统理论分析，还发现了与该结构的强空间对应关系。后者根据所谓的“持续度规”θ−1提取了对流层中流动的最持久的模式。热浪和阻塞更有可能发生在持续状态。历史预估和21世纪末期的预估也捕捉到了类似的行为，预估θ−1的分布基本保持不变，表明极端事件的持续性变化不大。在本世纪末的预估中，持续阻塞的频率和持续时间都没有变化，但热浪强度确实增加了。由此得出的结论是，预估的热浪增强是由热力学机制而不是动力机制引起的。这一结论取决于从流中去除多年运行的平均背景以进行持久性分析。如果没有这种高通滤波，预估的持续时间会增加，因为气流的特征是区域变暖趋势模式。

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引用次数: 0

Vegetation drought condition index for probabilistic monitoring and forecasting of vegetation drought 用于植被干旱概率监测与预报的植被干旱状况指数

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100786

Jeongeun Won , Jeongju Lee , Sangdan Kim

As the impacts of meteorological drought on vegetation have intensified, there is a growing need for a system that can quantitatively assess and forecast vegetation drought. This study proposes a vegetation drought monitoring and forecasting framework utilizing a copula-based probabilistic approach to address this need. By constructing a joint probability distribution between a meteorological drought index and a vegetation index, we developed the Vegetation Drought Condition Index (VDCI), which was then integrated with numerical weather prediction data to establish a probabilistic vegetation drought forecasting framework. The VDCI is capable of selectively detecting vegetation stress caused by meteorological conditions and enables the quantitative assessment of drought severity through a four-level vegetation drought classification criteria. Spatial and temporal analyses confirmed that the VDCI can identify vegetation drought more clearly than individual indices. Moreover, the probabilistic forecasting framework demonstrated excellent forecasting performance with an average F1-score of approximately 0.9 across all pixels. This study proposes a framework enabling quantitative monitoring and forecasting of vegetation drought based on the probabilistic relationship between meteorological drought and vegetation response, and is expected to contribute to the development of ecosystem-based drought early warning and response strategies in the future.

随着气象干旱对植被影响的加剧，对植被干旱定量评价和预报系统的需求日益增加。本研究提出了一个利用基于copula的概率方法来解决这一需求的植被干旱监测和预测框架。通过构建气象干旱指数与植被指数的联合概率分布，提出了植被干旱状况指数（VDCI），并将其与数值天气预报数据相结合，建立了植被干旱概率预报框架。VDCI能够选择性地检测气象条件造成的植被胁迫，并通过四级植被干旱分类标准对干旱严重程度进行定量评估。时空分析表明，VDCI对植被干旱的识别效果优于单项指数。此外，概率预测框架表现出优异的预测性能，在所有像素上的平均f1得分约为0.9。本研究提出了一种基于气象干旱与植被响应概率关系的植被干旱定量监测与预报框架，为未来基于生态系统的干旱预警与响应策略的发展提供参考。

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引用次数: 0

Attribution of heat extremes and its health effects in Yangtze River Basin in late summer 2024 2024年夏末长江流域极端高温归因及其对健康的影响

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100787

Liwen Ren , Yi Li , Hui Chen , Zhen Liao , Yihui Ding

During the summer of 2024, the Yangtze River Basin (YZB) suffered from relentless heat. In particular, the late summer (from the 20th August to the 20th September) witnessed record-breaking high temperature anomalies ranging from daily to monthly timescales, reaching 5.19 °C (∼4.42 standard deviations) above the 1981–2010 mean. The Sichuan Basin was the most affected areas. Our analysis suggested that such heat event would not have occurred without past human activities, and the occurrence probability of similar events is expected to increase by 91 times by the end of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. We further assessed population exposure to heat-related health risks during the heat event, based on the Heat Health Risk Early Warning Level recommended by China CDC. During the summer of 2024, the late summer phase suffered the most from a prolonged period of the highest-level heat health risks (level-3), with 20 % of the population exposed. Simultaneously, there is a growing vulnerability of the population to all levels of heat health risks over the past decades, with exposures to both level-1 and level-2 reaching historical peaks in 2024. With a substantial increase in heat days, this increasing trend of population exposure to heat health risks is expected to continue in the future. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, for the level-1 heat health risk, an extra 20 % of the YZB population might face such conditions by 2035 comparable to the 2024 exposure. By the 2090s, the population exposure to record-breaking heat registered in late summer of 2024 will be normal, affecting 40 % of the projected population. Our study provides critical insights into the association between climate change and heat health risks from the 2024-like heat event in the YZB, highlighting the urgent need for heat health early warnings and adaptive measures.

2024年夏季，长江流域遭受了持续的高温。特别是在夏末（8月20日至9月20日），从日到月的时间尺度上都出现了破纪录的高温异常，比1981-2010年的平均值高出5.19°C（~ 4.42标准差）。四川盆地是受灾最严重的地区。我们的分析表明，如果没有过去的人类活动，这样的高温事件是不会发生的，并且在SSP2-4.5情景下，到21世纪末，类似事件的发生概率预计将增加91倍。基于中国疾病预防控制中心推荐的高温健康风险预警级别，我们进一步评估了高温事件期间人群暴露于高温相关的健康风险。在2024年夏季，夏末阶段遭受的高温健康风险最高（3级）的影响最为严重，有20%的人口暴露在高温中。与此同时，在过去几十年里，人们越来越容易受到各级热健康风险的影响，一级和二级的暴露量在2024年达到了历史峰值。随着炎热天数的大幅增加，预计未来人口暴露于高温健康风险的趋势将继续增加。在SSP2-4.5情景下，对于1级热健康风险，到2035年，与2024年的暴露相比，YZB人口可能会多出20%面临这种状况。到21世纪90年代，2024年夏末记录的创纪录高温将成为常态，影响到预计人口的40%。我们的研究为YZB类似2024年的高温事件提供了气候变化与热健康风险之间关系的重要见解，强调了热健康预警和适应措施的迫切需要。

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引用次数: 0

A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to translate past extreme temperature days into the future climate 一种将过去极端温度日转化为未来气候的混合统计-动力方法

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100785

Julien Boé, Margot Bador, Laurent Terray

This study presents a novel hybrid statistical-dynamical method intended to translate past observed weather events into the future climate, and applies it to warm and cold extreme temperature days over western Europe. The method estimates the temperature anomalies that would result if an observed event of the 1940–2023 period, defined in terms of atmospheric circulation, were to occur at the end of the 21st century, under new climatological conditions. In practice, constructed analogues of observed extreme events are built using data from regional climate projections. Three regional climate projections under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway are used in order to assess the role of model uncertainties in this context. The same approach is also used beforehand to assess the role of large-scale circulation in the observed extreme temperature days, and the ability of regional climate models to capture it is evaluated. The study finds significant variability in the role of atmospheric dynamics in extreme temperature days, contributing 35–80 % of the temperature anomaly for warm days and 20–90 % for cold days, with other factors such as land-atmosphere interactions playing an amplifying role. Regional climate models generally capture the dynamical part of temperature anomalies quite correctly. Not surprisingly extreme temperature days become more intense in the future climate, but a large inter-event spread exists. Some of the events could become much warmer, while others would not change much. Moreover, this intensification varies widely between regional climate models, and not necessarily in line with the average warming.

本研究提出了一种新的混合统计动力学方法，旨在将过去观测到的天气事件转化为未来的气候，并将其应用于西欧的温暖和寒冷极端温度日。该方法估计了在新的气候条件下，如果观测到的1940-2023年期间的事件（根据大气环流定义）发生在21世纪末，将导致的温度异常。在实践中，利用区域气候预估的数据构建观测到的极端事件的类似物。利用RCP8.5排放路径下的三个区域气候预估来评估模式不确定性在这一背景下的作用。同样的方法也预先用于评估大尺度环流在观测到的极端温度日数中的作用，并评估了区域气候模式捕捉大尺度环流的能力。研究发现，大气动力在极端温度日中的作用具有显著的变异性，对温暖日和寒冷日温度异常的贡献率分别为35 - 80%和20 - 90%，而陆-气相互作用等其他因子则起着放大作用。区域气候模式通常能相当准确地捕捉温度异常的动力部分。在未来的气候中，极端温度的天气会变得更加强烈，这并不奇怪，但存在一个大的事件间传播。有些事件可能会变得更加温暖，而其他事件则不会发生太大变化。此外，在不同的区域气候模式之间，这种强度差异很大，不一定与平均变暖一致。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding drought onset: What makes flash droughts different from conventional droughts? 了解干旱的发生：是什么使突发性干旱与常规干旱不同？

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100782

Pallavi Goswami , Ailie J.E. Gallant

This study examines the timescales of drought onset to understand the differences between rapid onset droughts, called flash droughts, and the more conventional slow-onset droughts. Using a soil moisture-based drought identification approach, we show that soil moisture across most of Australia can transition from near-normal to drought conditions within one month’s time. The median duration for non-rapid drought onset, here called a conventional drought, is 30 days, while the rapid onset drought, here called a flash drought, takes around 15 days, indicating that the difference in onset timescales of the two drought types is relatively small. Further, our findings reveal that changes to precipitation and evaporative conditions during a flash drought onset are not very different from those that cause a conventional drought onset. However, flash drought development is associated with larger magnitude of anomalies of those variables leading to drought conditions. These larger anomalies during flash droughts reduce soil moisture rapidly, with a potential to cause damage to vegetation health without sufficient early warning. Although there is a diversity in the mechanisms causing flash droughts, we show here that the majority of the flash droughts are primarily related to the joint influence of abnormally low precipitation and heightened incoming solar radiation (low cloud cover) and large vapour pressure deficits (low relative humidity). The results emphasise the need to update existing drought monitoring systems to account for more realistic timescales of drought onsets for better early warning and preparedness.

本研究考察了干旱发生的时间尺度，以了解快速发生的干旱（称为骤发干旱）和更常规的缓慢发生的干旱之间的差异。使用基于土壤湿度的干旱识别方法，我们表明澳大利亚大部分地区的土壤湿度可以在一个月内从接近正常的状态过渡到干旱状态。非快速干旱（这里称为常规干旱）的中位持续时间为30天，而快速干旱（这里称为突发性干旱）的中位持续时间约为15天，这表明两种干旱类型的发生时间尺度差异相对较小。此外，我们的研究结果表明，在突发性干旱发生期间，降水和蒸发条件的变化与导致常规干旱发生的变化没有太大不同。然而，突发性干旱的发展与导致干旱条件的这些变量的较大程度的异常有关。在突然性干旱期间，这些较大的异常会迅速降低土壤湿度，如果没有足够的早期预警，可能会对植被健康造成损害。虽然造成暴发性干旱的机制多种多样，但我们在这里表明，大多数暴发性干旱主要与异常低降水、入射太阳辐射增强（低云量）和大蒸汽压差（低相对湿度）的共同影响有关。这些结果强调需要更新现有的干旱监测系统，以便考虑到更现实的干旱发生时间尺度，从而更好地进行早期预警和准备。

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引用次数: 0

A pseudo global warming based system to study how climate change affects high impact rainfall events 一个基于伪全球变暖的系统，用于研究气候变化如何影响高影响降雨事件

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100781

Geert Lenderink , Hylke de Vries , Erik van Meijgaard , Wim de Rooy , Lambertus van Ulft , Vikki Thompson , Xiaobin Qiu , Hayley J. Fowler

Assessing the influence of climate change on extreme (convective) rainfall is challenging. In particular with global climate models, it is virtually impossible to combine high resolution modelling to represent the physical processes adequately together with conducting long simulations to achieve statistical robustness. To complement global modelling efforts, we here present an event oriented system based on pseudo global warming (PGW). The system consists of continuous short-term forecast cycles (3 days long starting each day at midnight) running a small set of 12 km resolution simulations for the present-day climate, a cooler past climate, and three warmer climates. For extreme events these runs are further downscaled to convection permitting resolutions. This allows us to study the spatiotemporal characteristics of convective rainfall and associated phenomena, like wind gusts, hail, and lightning within a climate change context. At the same time, the system has sufficient signal-to-noise to study climate change effects in rare extreme events. We illustrate the application the system with three recent extreme rainfall events (storm Babet in the UK, October 2023; the Italy spring 2023 floods; and the Germany Bavaria, 2024 floods) and discuss strengths and limitations of the method. One additional case with extreme convective wind gusts shows the potential further application of the system. All three rainfall events reveal climate change responses well beyond the commonly expected Clausius-Clapeyron rate, and two cases (in Italy and Germany) reveal a concentration of rainfall in more confined areas, disproportionally enhancing the potential for flash floods in a warming climate.

评估气候变化对极端（对流）降雨的影响具有挑战性。特别是对于全球气候模式，几乎不可能将高分辨率模式与进行长时间模拟以实现统计稳健性结合起来，以充分代表物理过程。为了补充全球模型的工作，我们在这里提出了一个基于伪全球变暖（PGW）的面向事件的系统。该系统包括连续的短期预报周期（从每天午夜开始，为期3天），运行一小组12公里分辨率的模拟，模拟当前气候、较冷的过去气候和三种较暖的气候。对于极端事件，这些运行进一步缩小到对流允许分辨率。这使我们能够在气候变化背景下研究对流降雨和相关现象（如阵风、冰雹和闪电）的时空特征。同时，该系统具有足够的信噪比来研究罕见极端事件对气候变化的影响。我们用最近的三个极端降雨事件(2023年10月英国的Babet风暴；意大利2023年春季洪水；德国巴伐利亚州，2024年洪水)，并讨论该方法的优势和局限性。另一个极端对流阵风的案例显示了该系统的潜在进一步应用。所有这三个降雨事件都表明气候变化的响应远远超出了通常预期的克劳修斯-克拉佩龙速率，其中两个（在意大利和德国）表明降雨集中在更狭窄的区域，在气候变暖的情况下，这大大增加了山洪暴发的可能性。

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引用次数: 0

Convection-permitting WRF simulation of extreme winds in Canada: Present and future scenarios 允许对流的WRF模拟加拿大极端风：现在和未来情景

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100777

Xiao Ma, Yanping Li, Fei Huo, Zhenhua Li

This study investigates extreme wind events across southern Canada using 4-km convection-permitting WRF simulations under present (CTRL) and future (PGW) climate scenarios. The high resolution allows explicit representation of convective processes and complex terrain, improving local-scale wind prediction. We analyze three distinct regions—the central Prairies, Rocky Mountains, and southern Ontario—and find strong spatial and seasonal contrasts. Under future conditions, summer wind extremes intensify notably in the Prairies and southern Ontario, while winter winds decrease in the Prairies but increase in Ontario, Quebec, and mountainous areas. A conditional probability analysis based on Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) reveals that the likelihood of destructive winds (>20 m/s) rises significantly in convectively unstable environments. In southern Ontario, the probability under strong instability (CAPE >2500 J/kg) increases from nearly zero to 0.4. We also apply the Peaks-over-Threshold (POT) method to estimate 50-year return period wind speeds, which show substantial future increases, up to 6 m/s in some areas during summer. These changes indicate a rising threat from convectively driven wind extremes. This study highlights the value of convection-permitting models in resolving local wind features and emphasizes the need for region-specific adaptation strategies. The findings critically impact wind hazard assessment, infrastructure design, and climate resilience planning across southern Canada.

本研究在当前（CTRL）和未来（PGW）气候情景下，使用允许对流的4公里WRF模拟调查了加拿大南部的极端风事件。高分辨率使得对流过程和复杂地形的清晰表示成为可能，从而改善局地尺度的风预报。我们分析了三个不同的地区——中部大草原、落基山脉和安大略省南部——并发现了强烈的空间和季节反差。在未来的条件下，夏季极端风在大草原和安大略省南部明显加剧，而冬季风在大草原减少，而在安大略省，魁北克省和山区增加。基于对流有效势能（CAPE）的条件概率分析表明，在对流不稳定环境中，破坏性风（> 20m /s）发生的可能性显著增加。在安大略省南部，处于强不稳定状态（CAPE >2500 J/kg）的概率从接近零增加到0.4。我们还应用峰值超过阈值（POT）方法来估计50年的回归期风速，该方法显示出未来的大幅增加，在夏季某些地区可达6米/秒。这些变化表明，对流驱动的极端风的威胁正在上升。该研究强调了对流允许模式在解决局部风特征方面的价值，并强调了特定区域适应策略的必要性。这些发现对加拿大南部的风害评估、基础设施设计和气候适应性规划产生了重大影响。

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引用次数: 0

Downscaled CMIP6 future climate projections for New Zealand: climatology and extremes 缩小版CMIP6对新西兰未来气候的预估：气候学和极端事件

IF 6.1 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100784

Peter B. Gibson , Ashley M. Broadbent , Stephen J. Stuart , Hamish Lewis , Isaac Campbell , Neelesh Rampal , Luke J. Harrington , Jonny Williams

Downscaled climate projections provide regionally relevant information for climate adaptation and planning purposes. Updated climate projections (∼12-km) are presented here for the New Zealand region, downscaling 6 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under a high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to explore differences when downscaling select GCMs. For end of century projections (relative to 1986–2005), the national multi-model annual mean warming is 3.1°C (model range 2.0–3.8°C) across downscaled simulations. Downscaling generally enhances warming over New Zealand relative to the GCMs, with the largest increases across high-elevation regions. There can be important differences in the projections across RCMs, including at national scales for temperature and across local-to-regional scales for precipitation. Averaged across models, annual extreme heatwaves become 3–5°C hotter for most regions. More frequent, intense, and longer duration meteorological drought is projected across northern and eastern regions of both islands. In terms of model uncertainty based on sign agreement, while summer mean precipitation projections carry the largest uncertainty, projections of summer meteorological drought and precipitation extremes can be made with greater confidence. These results provide a foundation for further targeted regional climate change impact and adaptation studies.

缩小尺度的气候预估为气候适应和规划目的提供区域相关信息。本文介绍了在高排放情景（SSP3-7.0）下，耦合模式比对项目（CMIP6）的6种全球气候模式（GCMs）对新西兰地区的最新气候预估（~ 12公里）。使用三种区域气候模式（rcm）来探讨选择gcm降尺度时的差异。对于世纪末预估（相对于1986-2005年），在缩小规模的模拟中，全国多模式年平均变暖为3.1°C（模式范围2.0-3.8°C）。相对于gcm，降尺度通常会增强新西兰的变暖，高海拔地区的增温幅度最大。跨rcm的预估可能存在重大差异，包括在国家尺度上的温度预估和在局地尺度上的降水预估。各模式的平均值显示，大多数地区的年极端热浪温度升高3-5°C。预计这两个岛屿的北部和东部地区将出现更频繁、更强烈和持续时间更长的气象干旱。在模式不确定性方面，夏季平均降水预估的不确定性最大，而夏季气象干旱和极端降水预估的置信度更高。这些结果为进一步开展有针对性的区域气候变化影响与适应研究奠定了基础。

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引用次数: 0