Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献_第9页

Changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation over pan-Arctic land driven by anthropogenic influences 由人为影响驱动的泛北极陆地极端温度和降水的变化

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100825

Yuxiang Yang , Ting Wei , Bing Chen

In an increasingly warmer and wetter Arctic, the intensity and frequency of extreme climate events have risen, but there is still a lack of comprehensive reports of extreme events in the Arctic over the past few decades, and little is known about the anthropogenic influences on extreme events in the Arctic. In this study, we first show that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models effectively capture the climatological patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation events. The multimodel ensemble mean (MME) results are better than those of most of the individual models. Then the long-term trends of simulations and reanalysis indicate that the pan-Arctic region experienced a significant increase in extreme warm events (intensity, frequency and duration) and extreme precipitation events and a significant decrease in extreme cold events (intensity, frequency and duration) during the period of 1960–2014. Finally, attribution analysis using regularized optimal fingerprinting (ROF) indicates that long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes across the pan-Arctic land are driven by anthropogenic impacts. Greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is the primary contributor, accounting for 98 %–126 % of the trends across most extreme indices except for individual percentile-based indices. This effect is partially offset by anthropogenic aerosols (−18 %–0 %), while the influence of natural forcing is negligible. Our findings provide clear evidence that human activities are the primary driver of extreme temperature and precipitation over pan-Arctic land.

在日益温暖和湿润的北极，极端气候事件的强度和频率有所上升，但在过去几十年里，仍然缺乏对北极极端事件的全面报道，对北极极端事件的人为影响知之甚少。在本研究中，我们首先证明了耦合模式比对项目第6阶段（CMIP6）模式有效地捕获了极端温度和降水事件的气候模式。多模式集合平均（MME）结果优于大多数单个模型的结果。模拟和再分析的长期趋势表明，1960—2014年，泛北极地区极端温暖事件（强度、频率和持续时间）和极端降水事件显著增加，极端寒冷事件（强度、频率和持续时间）显著减少。最后，利用正则化最优指纹（ROF）归因分析表明，泛北极地区极端温度和极端降水的长期变化是由人为影响驱动的。温室气体（GHG）强迫是主要贡献者，除个别百分位数指数外，在大多数极端指数中占98% - 126%的趋势。这种影响被人为气溶胶部分抵消（- 18% - 0%），而自然强迫的影响可以忽略不计。我们的发现提供了明确的证据，表明人类活动是泛北极地区极端温度和降水的主要驱动因素。

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引用次数: 0

More active and severe heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere during La Niña developing summers La Niña发展中的夏季期间北半球更活跃和严重的热浪

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100824

Shih-How Lo, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Ya-Hui Chang, Hsin-Chien Liang

Global warming has significantly increased the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in the summertime Northern Hemisphere. However, the relative contributions of El Niño and La Niña to heatwave characteristics are still inadequately understood. This study investigates this relationship by removing the global warming trend to isolate the effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on heatwave dynamics. Our results show that heatwave scale and intensity are notably higher during La Niña-developing summers, with approximately 1.5 times greater intensity and affected area of heatwave events compared to El Niño-developing summers. Mechanistic analysis reveals that La Niña strengthens atmospheric conditions favorable for the occurrence of heatwaves. Furthermore, our analysis of the recent 2023 and 2024 boreal summers, after adjusting for global warming influences, confirms that the developing La Niña pattern in the 2024 boreal summer produced more extreme heatwave events. This study shows a clear link between ENSO phases and extreme heatwaves, thereby providing insights into the potential predictability of such events.

全球变暖显著增加了北半球夏季热浪的频率和强度。然而，El Niño和La Niña对热浪特征的相对贡献仍不充分了解。本研究通过去除全球变暖趋势来分离El Niño-Southern涛动（ENSO）对热浪动力学的影响来研究这种关系。结果表明，La Niña-developing夏季的热浪规模和强度明显高于El Niño-developing夏季，热浪事件的强度和影响范围约为El Niño-developing夏季的1.5倍。机理分析表明，La Niña增强了有利于热浪发生的大气条件。此外，我们对最近2023年和2024年北方夏季的分析，在调整了全球变暖的影响后，证实了2024年北方夏季La Niña模式的发展产生了更多的极端热浪事件。这项研究显示了ENSO阶段与极端热浪之间的明确联系，从而为此类事件的潜在可预测性提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Improving marine heatwave simulations through realistic Kuroshio representation in a high-resolution dynamical downscaling ensemble 通过高分辨率动态降尺度集合中的真实黑潮表示改进海洋热浪模拟

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100823

Seok-Geun Oh , Kyung-Geun Lim , Seok-Woo Son , Yang-Ki Cho

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), marked by extended periods of unusually warm seawater, significantly impact marine ecosystems and human communities. They have notably increased in the recent decades especially in the Northwest Pacific, a complex coastal region rich in biodiversity and economic activities. To develop effective policies for sustainable and resilient marine ecosystems in this region, high-resolution and reliable ocean climate information is essential. In this study, we simulate the long-term (1982–2014) North Pacific ocean climate using a high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) driven by eight relatively low-resolution Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models through dynamical downscaling. The ensemble median of eight ROMS simulations reduces warm biases of CMIP6 sea surface temperature by 20–69 %. It also improves the spatio-temporal variation of MHW properties, with up to 80–97 % improvement in winter MHW frequency in the Northwest Pacific. This improvement is attributed to a more realistic representation of the Kuroshio and its extension, which increases warm water advection from lower latitudes. This result highlights the importance of high-resolution ocean modeling in providing reliable ocean climate productions, especially for local extreme ocean events strongly influenced by regional ocean circulations in future climate projections.

海洋热浪（MHWs）以长时间的海水异常温暖为特征，对海洋生态系统和人类社区产生重大影响。近几十年来，它们显著增加，特别是在西北太平洋，这是一个生物多样性丰富、经济活动丰富的复杂沿海地区。要为该地区可持续和有弹性的海洋生态系统制定有效的政策，高分辨率和可靠的海洋气候信息至关重要。本研究利用高分辨率区域海洋模拟系统（ROMS），通过动力降尺度模拟了北太平洋长期（1982-2014）气候。该系统由8个相对低分辨率的耦合模式比对项目6 （CMIP6）模式驱动。8个ROMS模拟的集合中值将CMIP6海表温度的暖偏差降低了20 - 69%。它还改善了西北太平洋冬季强震频率的时空变化，使其频率提高了80 - 97%。这种改善归因于对黑潮及其延伸的更真实的描述，它增加了来自低纬度的暖流平流。这一结果强调了高分辨率海洋模拟在提供可靠的海洋气候产品方面的重要性，特别是在未来气候预测中对受区域海洋环流强烈影响的局部极端海洋事件。

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引用次数: 0

Asymmetric heatwave intensification under divergent climate change mitigation pathways amplifies urban–rural exposure disparities 不同气候变化缓解路径下的不对称热浪加剧放大了城乡暴露差异

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100821

Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri , Wen Zhou , Christopher E. Ndehedehe , Kazeem Abiodun Ishola , Akintomide A. Akinsanola , Naveed Ahmed , Xuan Wang

Unmitigated climate change poses threats to human and environmental well-being through increasingly intense and frequent heatwaves. However, the future impact of heatwaves on urban and rural populations remains uncertain. We project intensified heatwave characteristics and earlier onsets across numerous global regions using bias-corrected climate models. The projected impacts of limiting global warming to either regional-rivalry (SSP370) or fossil-fueled development (SSP585) pathways differ significantly, with SSP585 resulting in substantially more persistence and intensity than SSP370. Under SSP370, high heatwave frequency (HWF) correlates with low heatwave number (HWN) in most tropical regions, but the opposite is true in polar regions. Moreover, heatwave intensity is mostly governed by radiative and advective forcing, while persistence depends on large-scale flow stability. We further demonstrate that heatwave exposure varies considerably across different climate regions and population strata, with rural populations exhibiting exposure comparable to urban populations. Under SSP 370, the Tibetan region will witness rural population exposure to HWF totalling 15 million person-days, compared to 5 million person-days in urban population exposure. In East Asia, both the near and late-21st-century scenarios under SSP 370 show a dominant climate effect (at 90 %) governing the total changes to rural population exposure. In general, most regions are expected to witness the population effect dominance during SSP 370 in the mid-21st-century for rural populations, while the population effect dominance for urban populations varies by region. Our findings underscore the importance of developing customized adaptation plans to address the challenges of heatwaves in a changing climate.

无法缓解的气候变化通过日益强烈和频繁的热浪对人类和环境福祉构成威胁。然而，未来热浪对城市和农村人口的影响仍不确定。我们利用校正偏倚的气候模式预测了全球许多地区热浪特征的增强和发病时间的提前。限制全球变暖对区域竞争（SSP370）或化石燃料发展（SSP585）途径的预期影响存在显著差异，SSP585导致的持续时间和强度明显高于SSP370。在SSP370下，大多数热带地区的高热浪频率（HWF）与低热浪次数（HWN）相关，而极地地区则相反。此外，热浪强度主要受辐射和平流强迫的影响，而持续性则取决于大尺度流动的稳定性。我们进一步证明，热浪暴露在不同气候区域和人口阶层之间差异很大，农村人口的暴露程度与城市人口相当。在东亚，SSP 370下的21世纪中期和后期情景都表明，气候效应主导着农村人口暴露的总变化（占90%）。总体而言，大多数地区预计在21世纪中期的SSP 370期间，农村人口将见证人口效应的主导地位，而城市人口的人口效应主导地位因地区而异。我们的研究结果强调了制定定制适应计划以应对气候变化中热浪挑战的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Catchment scale changes to rainfall intermittency across Australia 整个澳大利亚的集水区规模变化导致降雨间歇性

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100819

Steven Thomas , Conrad Wasko , Danlu Guo , Ulrike Bende-Michl , Murray Peel

Hydroclimatic variability at the catchment scale modulates spatiotemporal patterns of water availability, potentially inducing hydrological extremes such as flooding and drought. These events alter streamflow and pose significant challenges for water resources management, ultimately impacting local ecosystems and communities. To understand the changes in hydroclimatic variability we examine the patterns of rainfall intermittency using aggregated catchment average rainfall. 467 Hydrological Reference Stations (HRS) catchments are used with data spanning from 1950 to 2022 across the Australian continent. We investigate changes in intermittency characteristics such as spell duration, frequency and intensity at the annual and seasonal scale. There is a clear trend towards an increase in rainfall intermittency with an increase in the number of both wet and dry spells per year across Australia. Wet spells are becoming shorter across 80 % of catchments, with an increase in the number of dry days per year. Despite this increase in dry days, there are no robust trends for changes in dry spell length. Catchments with drying trends are typically in southern and eastern Australia, whilst the catchments in northern and northwestern Australia exhibit wetting trends. This wetting trend comes from fewer dry days and increases in both annual rainfall totals and rainfall intensity during wet spells. We find that the trends in the seasonal scale are regionally dependent and align with changes in the large-scale drivers of regional rainfall dynamics. In the south, winter rainfall and wet spells are the most impacted, whereas in the north, it is the summer monsoon that is most impacted by these trends. Our results show rainfall intermittency has increased in recent decades, suggesting that intermittency could potentially continue to change into the future. These results also highlight the need to investigate wet and dry spells concurrently to form a foundational understanding of how rainfall intermittency dynamics are changing. We conclude that changes in rainfall intermittency across Australian catchments have the potential to impact water resources management and need to be considered in future planning.

流域尺度上的水文气候变异调节了水资源可利用性的时空格局，可能导致洪水和干旱等水文极端事件。这些事件改变了水流，给水资源管理带来了重大挑战，最终影响到当地的生态系统和社区。为了了解水文气候变率的变化，我们使用集水区平均总降雨量来研究降雨间歇性的模式。467个水文参考站（HRS）集水区使用了1950年至2022年整个澳大利亚大陆的数据。我们在年和季节尺度上研究了间歇性特征的变化，如法术持续时间、频率和强度。随着澳大利亚每年湿润和干燥天气的增加，降雨间歇性增加的趋势很明显。在80%的集水区，雨季变得越来越短，每年干旱的天数增加。尽管干旱天数有所增加，但干旱期长度的变化趋势并不明显。具有干燥趋势的集水区通常位于澳大利亚南部和东部，而澳大利亚北部和西北部的集水区则呈现湿润趋势。这种湿润趋势来自干旱天数的减少以及年降雨量总量和湿润期降雨强度的增加。研究发现，季节尺度的变化趋势具有区域依赖性，并与区域降雨动力学的大尺度驱动因素的变化相一致。在南方，冬季降雨和湿润期受到的影响最大，而在北方，受这些趋势影响最大的是夏季风。我们的研究结果表明，近几十年来，降雨的间断性有所增加，这表明间断性可能会在未来继续发生变化。这些结果也强调了同时调查干湿期的必要性，以形成对降雨间歇动力学如何变化的基本理解。我们的结论是，澳大利亚集水区降雨间歇性的变化有可能影响水资源管理，需要在未来的规划中加以考虑。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation and projection of extreme rainfall from a large ensemble of high–resolution regional climate models in Australia 来自澳大利亚高分辨率区域气候模式大集合的极端降雨评估和预估

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100818

Lalani Jayaweera , Conrad Wasko , Rory Nathan , Jozef Syktus , Rohan Eccles

Incorporating climate change into intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves is broadly conducted using either a climate model simulation–based approach or a covariate–based approach. However, as of now, there has been no research comparing these two approaches in the context of rainfall IDF derivation under climate change. To this end, this study evaluates the 1–h annual rainfall maxima from an ensemble of 60 CORDEX–CMIP6 simulations using a high–resolution regional climate model, the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model, for Australia. We quantify rainfall changes for the near (2041–2070) and far (2071–2100) future compared to a reference period (1961–1990) across various durations and Annual Exceedance Probabilities (AEPs) under three emissions scenarios for 39 locations across Australia. We then compare these projections with covariate–based frequency model projections. The 1–h extreme (1 in 100 AEP) hindcast event shows a negative bias relative to observations, with a wide degree of variability across the ensemble. Projected changes for a high emissions scenario with a 3°C of global temperature increase show a median increase of 33.9% for 1–h and 18.9% for 1–day extreme events by the end of the century. Additionally, the reference 1 in 100 AEP event is projected to be 2.3 and 1.6 times more frequent for the 1–h and 1–day durations, respectively. Projections also indicated extreme rainfall increases at the rate of 8.7%°C⁻¹, which exceeds Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling for 1–h duration events, and nearly equal CC scaling for longer 1–day durations. Covariate–based projections indicated larger quantile increases for 1–h events with no change for 1–day events. Regional downscaling provides robust evidence for extreme rainfall changes despite uncertainties.

将气候变化纳入强度-持续-频率（IDF）曲线通常采用基于气候模式模拟的方法或基于协变量的方法。然而，目前还没有研究将这两种方法在气候变化条件下的降水IDF推导中进行比较。为此，本研究利用高分辨率区域气候模式（共形立方大气模式）评估了澳大利亚60个CORDEX-CMIP6模拟集合的1小时年最大降雨量。与参考期（1961-1990）相比，我们量化了澳大利亚39个地点三种排放情景下不同持续时间和年超过概率（AEPs）的近期（2041-2070）和远期（2071-2100）未来的降雨量变化。然后，我们将这些预测与基于协变量的频率模型预测进行比较。1小时极端（100 AEP中有1个）后播事件相对于观测值显示出负偏倚，在整体上具有很大程度的变异性。在全球温度升高3°C的高排放情景下，预估的变化表明，到本世纪末，1小时极端事件的中位数增幅为33.9%，1天极端事件的中位数增幅为18.9%。此外，参考资料1 / 100 AEP事件预计在1小时和1天内的频率分别是2.3倍和1.6倍。预估还表明，极端降雨以8.7%°C - 1的速率增加，超过了持续1 h事件的clusius - clapeyron （CC）标度，并且在持续1天的事件中几乎等于CC标度。基于协变量的预测表明，1小时事件的分位数增加较大，而1天事件的分位数没有变化。区域降尺度为极端降雨变化提供了强有力的证据，尽管存在不确定性。

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引用次数: 0

Estimating spring frost risk in apple farms from crop insurance data 根据作物保险数据估算苹果农场春季霜冻风险

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100809

Seung Min Kim , Jeongha Hwang , Kwansoo Kim

In South Korea, spring frost events frequently deliver catastrophic damage to apple orchards, leading to destabilization of apple markets and causing substantial financial burdens to the crop insurers. The present study aims to establish an analytical framework for spring frost prediction based on a Machine Learning (ML) algorithm and a four-year record of spring frost crop insurance loss claims. A fine-scale, observation-based gridded weather dataset is paired with the insurance dataset to analyze the relationship between spring frost damage and meteorological, climactic, and socioeconomic conditions. The results show that the Random Forest (RF) algorithm outperforms all tested algorithms of classical binary outcome variable regression and discriminant analysis, with an accuracy of

> 94 %

, and this superiority is robust over different classification thresholds. Farmer socioeconomic information held by the insurers provides additional improvements in RF performance, while the transformation of temperature variable to double-threshold degree days is not significant. The algorithms are applied to the assessment of spring frost risk at insurance-covered farms. We find evidence suggesting “adverse selection,” where farmers purchasing lower deductible plans show higher spring frost risk. The results will help both crop insurers and farmers manage spring frost risk by providing a reliable predicting framework of disaster occurrence and shaping the optimal crop insurance contract.

在韩国，春季霜冻事件经常给苹果园带来灾难性的破坏，导致苹果市场的不稳定，给作物保险公司带来巨大的经济负担。本研究旨在建立一个基于机器学习（ML）算法和四年春霜作物保险损失索赔记录的春霜预测分析框架。将基于观测的精细尺度网格化天气数据集与保险数据集配对，分析春季霜冻灾害与气象、气候和社会经济条件之间的关系。结果表明，随机森林（Random Forest， RF）算法优于所有经过测试的经典二元结果变量回归和判别分析算法，准确率达到94%，并且在不同分类阈值下具有鲁棒性。保险公司持有的农民社会经济信息提供了射频性能的额外改进，而温度变量到双阈值度天数的转换并不显著。将该算法应用于参保农场的春霜风险评估。我们发现了“逆向选择”的证据，即购买较低免赔额计划的农民出现较高的春季霜冻风险。研究结果将通过提供可靠的灾害发生预测框架和制定最佳的作物保险合同，帮助作物保险公司和农民管理春霜风险。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the effects of compound events of temperature and air pollution on weekly mortality in Spain using random forests 利用随机森林评估温度和空气污染复合事件对西班牙每周死亡率的影响

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100816

Ginés Garnés-Morales , Javier Tortosa , Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero , Salvador Gil-Guirado , Ester García-Fernández , Juan Pedro Montávez

Numerous studies have shown the link between extreme weather events and mortality. Specifically, the impacts of extreme temperatures on death rates have been extensively evaluated and documented. Likewise, exposure to air pollution is well known to adversely affect health, with extreme pollution episodes also being related to elevated mortality rates. Hence, it is reasonable to expect that the combination of these phenomena could result in elevated mortality episodes. In this study, we demonstrate that the temporal variability of mortality rates across several Spanish provinces can be effectively explained by a multivariate model that incorporates both meteorological factors and air quality. While a Random Forest analysis shows that temperature is the primary factor in most provinces, the inclusion of pollutant concentration significantly enhances the model’s predictive accuracy. Moreover, a seasonal analysis of extreme events reveals a strong relationship between high mortality episodes and the occurrence of compound events. These events encompass different variables depending on the season. During summer (June–August), situations characterized by extreme temperatures combined with elevated ozone levels result in marked mortality peaks within the same week. In winter (December–February), conditions involving very low temperatures along with high nitrogen dioxide concentrations are associated with extreme mortality rates (above the 90th percentile) during the following week in half of the cases considered. These results suggest that early warning systems should include not only the individual variables but also their combination.

大量研究表明，极端天气事件与死亡率之间存在联系。具体而言，极端温度对死亡率的影响已得到广泛评估和记录。同样，众所周知，接触空气污染会对健康产生不利影响，极端污染事件也与死亡率升高有关。因此，我们有理由预计，这些现象的结合可能导致死亡率升高。在这项研究中，我们证明了西班牙几个省份的死亡率的时间变异性可以通过一个包含气象因素和空气质量的多变量模型有效地解释。随机森林分析显示，温度是大多数省份的主要影响因素，但污染物浓度的加入显著提高了模型的预测精度。此外，对极端事件的季节性分析表明，高死亡率事件与复合事件的发生之间存在密切关系。根据季节的不同，这些事件包含不同的变量。在夏季（6月至8月），极端温度加上臭氧水平升高的情况导致在同一周内出现明显的死亡率高峰。在冬季（12月至2月），温度极低且二氧化氮浓度高的情况与所考虑的半数病例在随后一周内的极端死亡率（高于第90百分位数）有关。这些结果表明，预警系统不仅应包括单个变量，还应包括它们的组合。

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引用次数: 0

Two sides of the same coin? Hydrometeorological uncertainties in impact-based flood warning systems and climate change sensitivity of floodplains 同一枚硬币的两面？基于影响的洪水预警系统中的水文气象不确定性与洪泛区气候变化敏感性

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100817

Markus Mosimann, Olivia Martius, Andreas Paul Zischg

The sensitivity of floodplains to floods of various magnitudes is strongly influenced by the relationship between hydrogeomorphology and the built environment. To provide a nuanced measure of impact sensitivity to changes in flood magnitude, we introduce a novel floodplain sensitivity index (

F S I

) that integrates slope and curvature metrics derived from the magnitude–impact curve. We apply the method to 179 floodplains in Switzerland. Our analysis reveals that higher flood magnitudes might substantially amplify impacts, given that many of the most sensitive magnitude thresholds have not yet been exceeded. We did not find coherent patterns in the

F S I

across geographic or topographic regions or along entire rivers. The shape of the impact curves and thus the impact sensitivity is specific not only to the floodplain but also to the type of impact. The

F S I

contributes to flood risk management by providing a method to identify critical flood magnitude thresholds that lead to severe impacts if exceeded. The

F S I

helps in assessing the effects of uncertainties in hydrometeorological forecasts on impact-based warnings and of uncertainties in climate change projections for long-term flood risk management strategies.

洪泛区对不同震级洪水的敏感性受到水文地貌与建筑环境之间关系的强烈影响。为了提供对洪水震级变化的影响敏感性的细致测量，我们引入了一种新的洪泛区敏感性指数（FSI），该指数集成了从震级影响曲线得出的斜率和曲率指标。我们将该方法应用于瑞士的179个洪泛平原。我们的分析表明，考虑到许多最敏感的震级阈值尚未被超过，更高的洪水震级可能会大大放大影响。我们没有发现跨地理或地形区域或沿整个河流的FSI的连贯模式。冲击曲线的形状以及由此产生的冲击敏感性不仅与洪泛区有关，而且与冲击类型有关。FSI为洪水风险管理提供了一种方法，以确定一旦超过就会导致严重影响的关键洪水级别阈值。FSI有助于评估水文气象预报的不确定性对基于影响的预警的影响，以及气候变化预测的不确定性对长期洪水风险管理策略的影响。

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引用次数: 0

The spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme drought events in China from 1961 to 2022 via a copula function 基于copula函数的1961 - 2022年中国极端干旱事件时空特征

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100815

Tingting Liu , Xiufang Zhu , Hongquan Sun , Mingxiu Tang

In this study, a comprehensive and systematic analysis of extreme drought events in China from 1961 to 2022 utilizing the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and copula functions based on monthly gridded precipitation data is presented. In this study, drought events and their characteristics are identified using run theory and the 3-month SPI. A drought event with a joint exceedance probability of drought severity and duration calculated by the copula function at less than 5 % was subsequently defined as an extreme drought. Under extreme drought conditions, the duration/severity of drought was fixed at a specific value, the corresponding drought severity/duration was calculated grid by grid, and its spatial heterogeneity and change were analyzed during two time periods (1961–1991 and 1992–2022). The results revealed significant temporal and spatial variations in drought trends, with increased precipitation severity in Northwest China and the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau and more severe drought conditions in Northeast China and South China. The western part of Northwest China (Subregion 1) and the northern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (Subregion 6) experienced longer and more severe drought events, characterized by average durations of 3.93 months and maximum severities up to 10.52 in Subregion 1, significantly exceeding national averages (3.47 months and 9.26). The duration/severity of extreme drought varied in different regions, with higher durations/severities in drought-prone areas. The frequency, duration, and severity of extreme drought events exhibited significant variations, particularly in central and southern China, where the frequency, duration, and severity of extreme drought events have increased. In subtropical humid regions in Central China and South China (Subregion 5), 47 % of the grids experience an increase in the total number of occurrences, 54 % of the grids experience an increase in the total number of months of occurrence, 64 % of the grids experience an increase in the average severity, and 62 % of the grids experience an increase in the maximum severity. Additionally, the number of extreme droughts caused by both duration and severity was greater than the number of extreme droughts dominated by any one factor alone. This study contributes to a more comprehensive assessment of extreme drought, providing a scientific basis for drought monitoring in China.

基于逐月格点降水数据，利用标准化降水指数（SPI）和copula函数对1961 - 2022年中国极端干旱事件进行了综合系统分析。本研究利用运行理论和3个月SPI识别干旱事件及其特征。由copula函数计算的干旱严重程度和持续时间的联合超过概率小于5%的干旱事件随后被定义为极端干旱。在极端干旱条件下，将干旱持续时间/严重程度固定在某一特定值，逐格计算对应的干旱严重程度/持续时间，分析1961—1991年和1992—2022年两个时间段干旱持续时间/持续时间的空间异质性和变化。第一分区域的严重程度分别为93个月和10.52个月，显著高于全国平均水平（3.47个月和9.26个月）。极端干旱的持续时间/严重程度在不同地区有所不同，在干旱易发地区持续时间/严重程度更高。极端干旱事件的发生频率、持续时间和严重程度呈现显著变化，特别是在中国中部和南部地区，极端干旱事件的发生频率、持续时间和严重程度都有所增加。在中国中部和华南亚热带湿润地区（第五分区），47%的栅格总发生次数增加，54%的栅格总发生月数增加，64%的栅格平均严重程度增加，62%的栅格最大严重程度增加。此外，由持续时间和严重程度引起的极端干旱的数量大于仅由任何一种因素主导的极端干旱的数量。该研究有助于更全面地评价极端干旱，为中国干旱监测提供科学依据。

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引用次数: 0