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Application of boosted tree algorithm with new data preprocessing techniques in the forecasting one day ahead streamflow values in the Tigris basin, Türkiye 增强树算法和新的数据预处理技术在预测土耳其底格里斯盆地前一天流量值中的应用
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2023.07.004
Okan Mert Katipoğlu , Metin Sarıgöl

Accurate streamflow forecasting is very useful in water resources management, design of hydraulic structures, and almost all issues related to the use of water and water resources, especially in arid regions that have increased in recent years. Since water is the source of all life and the most important basic element for humanity to continue its life, streamflow prediction studies increase its importance daily. This research combined the boosted tree (BT) model with robust empirical mode decomposition, empirical mode decomposition, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise, empirical wavelet transforms and variational mode decomposition for predicting daily average streamflow data. While historical streamflow data was input in the model's setup, one-day lead-time streamflow data was used as the target. 70% of the data is reserved for training and the rest for testing. 5-fold cross-validation technique was used to solve the over-fitting problem. The coefficient of determination, mean squared error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias statistical criteria and Taylor diagrams, polar plot, scattering diagram, and violin plot were used to determine the algorithm's success. At the end of the study, it was found that the most successful streamflow predictions were made with the variational mode decomposition-based BT hybrid approach.

精确的流量预测在水资源管理、水工结构设计以及几乎所有与水和水资源利用有关的问题中都非常有用,尤其是在近年来不断增加的干旱地区。由于水是所有生命的来源,是人类赖以生存的最重要的基本要素,因此流量预测研究的重要性与日俱增。本研究将增强树(BT)模型与鲁棒经验模式分解、经验模式分解,带自适应噪声的完全集成经验模式分解以及经验小波变换和变分模式分解相结合,用于预测日均流量数据。在模型设置中输入历史流量数据时,使用一天交付周期流量数据作为目标。70%的数据保留用于训练,其余用于测试。使用5倍交叉验证技术来解决过拟合问题。确定系数、均方误差、Nash-Sutcliffe效率和百分比偏差统计标准以及泰勒图、极坐标图、散射图和小提琴图用于确定算法的成功率。在研究的最后,发现最成功的流量预测是用基于变分模式分解的BT混合方法进行的。
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引用次数: 0
On deducing the drag coefficient formula of cylindrical vegetation in non-uniform channel flow 非均匀通道流中圆柱形植被阻力系数公式的推导
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2023.07.003
Ji-Kun Han , Wei-Jie Wang , Fei Dong , Jin-Yong Zhao , Wen-Qi Peng , Zhou-Bing Zhu , Fang Zhao , Biao Liu

Research on water flow resistance characteristics in a vegetation environment is a hotspot in environmental fluid research, which is primarily concentrated on the calculation of the vegetation drag coefficient Cd. At present, relatively few studies exist on the resistance characteristics of vegetation under non-uniform flow conditions, resulting in few general expressions for the research of Cd for this type of condition. In response to these scientific problems, this study selects shrub vegetation as the research object and generalised it as cylinders for the simulation study. This study adopts quadratic and Gaussian functions to change the coordinate expression of cylindrical vegetation Cd and then proposes the drag formulas of cylindrical vegetation in non-uniform flow for non-rainfall and heavy rainfall conditions based on regression analysis. Finally, this study substitutes the proposed Cd formula into the Saint-Venant equation to calculate the depth of channel flow. The newly proposed equations are verified by comparing the measured flow depth data with the calculation results. This study provides technical support for refined hydrodynamic simulations of vegetated flow regions.

植被环境中的水流阻力特性研究是环境流体研究的热点,主要集中在植被阻力系数Cd的计算上。目前,关于非均匀流动条件下植被的阻力特性的研究相对较少,导致对于这种类型的条件,很少有研究Cd的一般表达式。针对这些科学问题,本研究选择灌木植被作为研究对象,并将其概括为圆柱体进行模拟研究。本研究采用二次函数和高斯函数来改变圆柱形植被Cd的坐标表达式,然后基于回归分析提出了非降雨和强降雨条件下圆柱形植被在非均匀流中的阻力公式。最后,本研究将所提出的Cd公式代入Saint-Venant方程来计算河道水流深度。通过将实测流深数据与计算结果进行比较,验证了新提出的方程组。这项研究为植被流动区域的精细水动力学模拟提供了技术支持。
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引用次数: 0
Fusing morphometric characteristics with extreme precipitation indices for identifying the most vulnerable sub-basin at risk of flooding 融合形态特征与极端降水指数识别洪涝最脆弱子流域
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2023.07.005
Dharmaveer Singh , Kunal Karan , Sudhir Kumar Singh , Pankaj Chauhan , Ronny Berndtsson

Fluvial floods are commonly studied as an occurrence at the level of a specific basin and are speculated to be closely related to the basin's morphometry. It is possible to identify and rank sub-basins based on how susceptible they are to fluvial flooding events using morphometric criteria. However, one of the key causes that triggers fluvial flooding is the increase in precipitation extremes and changes to their patterns. In this study, influence of morphometric factors and extreme precipitation events on the hydrological responses of the Brahmani River, India as well as their sensitivity to fluvial flooding, are investigated to identify the most vulnerable sub-basin in a catchment. The morphometric parameters were calculated from a digital elevation model (DEM), and the change in trend of extreme precipitation indices was detected using precipitation data of period 1991 to 2021. Furthermore, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to determine the frequency of wet cycles on time scale of 1, 3, 12, and 24 months, as well as their link to fluvial flooding. The two sub-basins of the catchment that are most vulnerable to river flooding are recognised as Noamundi and Gomlai based on morphometric criteria. However, analysis of SPI and extreme precipitation indices showed that the Jenapur sub-basin is the most vulnerable to flooding. It is also corroborated with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based weighted overlay analysis and historical flood records. The outcomes will assist researchers in better understanding the mechanisms causing flooding in the Brahamni River Basin and in developing flood mitigation practices for the most vulnerable Jenapur sub-basin.

河流洪水通常被研究为特定流域水平的一种发生,并被推测与流域的形态计量学密切相关。使用形态计量标准,可以根据子盆地对河流泛滥事件的敏感性来识别和排序。然而,引发河流泛滥的关键原因之一是极端降水量的增加及其模式的变化。在本研究中,调查了形态计量因素和极端降水事件对印度布拉马尼河水文响应的影响,以及它们对河流洪水的敏感性,以确定集水区中最脆弱的子流域。根据数字高程模型(DEM)计算形态计量参数,并使用1991年至2021年期间的降水数据检测极端降水指数的趋势变化。此外,标准化降水指数(SPI)用于确定1、3、12和24个月时间尺度上的湿周期频率,以及它们与河流泛滥的联系。根据形态计量标准,该流域最容易受到河流洪水影响的两个子流域被认定为Noamundi和Gomlai。然而,SPI和极端降水指数的分析表明,杰纳普尔次盆地最容易受到洪水的影响。基于层次分析法(AHP)的加权叠加分析和历史洪水记录也证实了这一点。研究结果将有助于研究人员更好地了解Brahamni河流域引发洪水的机制,并为最脆弱的Jenapur次流域制定洪水缓解措施。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of flow structures on the transport of gametes in broadcast-spawning sea urchin 水流结构对广播产卵海胆配子运输的影响
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2023.07.002
Hojung You , Hyoungchul Park , Jin Hwan Hwang

Broadcasted fertilization for the reproduction of invertebrates is accomplished through a complicated interaction between spawned gametes and the surrounding flows. Most gametes encounter each other in the vicinity of the sea urchin body where unique flow structures develop, and so analysis of local flow characteristics allows us to better understand the effect of flow on the fertilization process. This study applied a Lagrangian framework based on computational fluid dynamics to estimate the fertilization rate of eggs in a range of flow velocities (0.025–0.2 m/s) and the fertilization rate was the highest at U = 0.1 m/s, which is an intermediate flow speed. Among the four classified sub-zones, such as the aboral surface, wake, substrate, and water column, fertilization occurred most frequently in the wake and substrate regions. The relationship between fertilization rate and flow structures was investigated using three parameters: 1) standardized Morisita index to quantify the pattern of gamete distribution, 2) length of the recirculation zone to specify the areas where the eggs are most frequently fertilized, and 3) integral scale to estimate the dimension of vortex structures downstream. The results of this study show that the fertilization rate is higher inside the recirculation zone, especially when strong vortex structures are observed because the flow provides a favorable condition for the gametes to aggregate and collide with each other.

无脊椎动物繁殖的广播受精是通过繁殖的配子和周围水流之间的复杂相互作用实现的。大多数配子在海胆体附近相遇,在那里形成了独特的流动结构,因此分析局部流动特征可以让我们更好地了解流动对受精过程的影响。这项研究应用了基于计算流体动力学的拉格朗日框架来估计鸡蛋在一定流速(0.025–0.2 m/s)范围内的受精率,受精率在U=0.1 m/s时最高,这是一个中间流速。在人工流产表面、尾流、基质和水柱四个亚区中,受精最频繁发生在尾流和基质区。使用三个参数研究了受精率和流动结构之间的关系:1)标准化Morisita指数,用于量化配子分布模式;2)再循环区的长度,用于指定卵子最频繁受精的区域;3)积分尺度,用于估计下游涡流结构的尺寸。这项研究的结果表明,再循环区内的受精率更高,尤其是当观察到强烈的旋涡结构时,因为流动为配子聚集和相互碰撞提供了有利的条件。
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引用次数: 0
Transverse energy loss slope in meandering channels 曲流河道横向能量损失斜率
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2023.08.002
Youssef I. Hafez

Limited research has been conducted on transverse energy loss in meandering channels. Previous studies made assumptions regarding a linear vertical profile of transverse velocity and rectangular cross sections with horizontal transverse beds, neglecting the effects of nonlinear transverse velocity profiles and transverse bed slopes that contribute to topographic steering. In this study, a novel expression for the transverse energy loss slope is derived analytically. This expression incorporates a nonlinear vertical distribution for transverse velocity and considers non-rectangular cross sections, thereby improving the computation of roughness coefficients in curved channels. A topographic steering number is introduced, which indicates the presence of topographic steering when it exceeds unity. The developed equation rectifies the previous underestimation of sinuosity in natural rivers when compared to existing equations. Additionally, an expression for superelevation is derived, accounting for channel roughness and transverse bed slope, unlike previous equations. The study reveals that roughness can significantly affect the height difference between outer and inner banks. Under higher roughness conditions, the height difference can exceed predictions from existing formulas by up to 50%. This emphasizes the importance of considering roughness effects in accurately estimating superelevation. The developed equations are validated through comparisons with available field, laboratory, and numerical data.

对弯曲河道中的横向能量损失进行了有限的研究。先前的研究对横向速度的线性垂直剖面和具有水平横向床的矩形横截面进行了假设,忽略了非线性横向速度剖面和横向床坡对地形导向的影响。在这项研究中,导出了横向能量损失斜率的一个新的解析表达式。该表达式包含了横向速度的非线性垂直分布,并考虑了非矩形横截面,从而改进了弯曲通道中粗糙度系数的计算。引入了一个地形转向数,当它超过1时,表示存在地形转向。与现有方程相比,所开发的方程纠正了之前对天然河流弯曲度的低估。此外,还导出了超高表达式,其中考虑了河道粗糙度和横向河床坡度,这与以前的公式不同。研究表明,粗糙度会显著影响内外岸之间的高差。在较高的粗糙度条件下,高度差可以超过现有公式的预测值高达50%。这强调了在准确估计超高时考虑粗糙度影响的重要性。通过与现有现场、实验室和数值数据的比较,验证了所开发的方程。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of stagnation period and flow rate on soluble and particulate Pb leaching in copper pipe water distribution systems 滞止期和流速对铜管配水系统中可溶性和颗粒性铅浸出的影响
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2023.06.001
Lu Chang , Joseph H.W. Lee

Extremely high lead level in tap water caused by particulates has attracted increasing attention in recent years. Despite extensive research on the role of particulate Pb in water supply systems with lead service lines, little information is available on the role of particulate Pb in copper (Cu) water distribution systems. In this study, the dissolved, colloidal, and particulate lead and copper concentrations in representative prototype copper pipe water distribution systems with leaded solder joints and brass fixtures are measured. The effects of flow rate and stagnation time on metal fractionation are investigated. For each experimental scenario, all the water that stagnated inside the system is sampled to have a comprehensive understanding of lead contamination. Sampled at flow rates of 200–250 mL/s, the soluble lead and copper make up 60–96 % of the total concentration in the samples after hours of stagnation. More than half of the Pb and Cu particles are larger than 0.8 μm. Higher flow rates result in substantial increases in particulate metal concentrations but have no apparent effect on dissolved metals. The soluble and particulate copper concentrations ( 100–250 μg/L) both increase with stagnation time. For the case of Pb, while the particulate concentration increases (up to 40 μg/L after 12 h), the soluble concentration does not change significantly beyond 4 h; this can be attributed to the different solubilities of Pb ( 20 μg/L) and Cu ( 200 μg/L) in tap water. The results also show that particulates suspended by clean “once through” water (without prior stagnation) can lead to high levels of Pb contamination (> 10 μg/L).

近年来,由颗粒物引起的自来水中铅含量极高引起了越来越多的关注。尽管对颗粒铅在带铅服务线的供水系统中的作用进行了广泛的研究,但关于颗粒铅在铜(Cu)配水系统中作用的信息很少。在这项研究中,测量了具有代表性的带铅焊点和黄铜夹具的铜管配水系统原型中溶解的、胶体的和颗粒的铅和铜浓度。研究了流速和停留时间对金属分馏的影响。对于每个实验场景,对系统内滞留的所有水进行采样,以全面了解铅污染。以200–250 mL/s的流速取样,停滞数小时后,可溶性铅和铜占样品总浓度的60–96%。超过一半的Pb和Cu颗粒大于0.8μm。较高的流速会导致颗粒金属浓度大幅增加,但对溶解的金属没有明显影响。可溶性和颗粒铜浓度(~100–250μg/L)均随停滞时间增加。对于Pb,当颗粒浓度增加(12小时后高达-40μg/L)时,可溶性浓度在4小时后没有显著变化;这可归因于Pb(~20μg/L)和Cu(~200μg/L)在自来水中的溶解度不同。结果还表明,清洁的“直流”水悬浮的颗粒物(之前没有停滞)会导致高水平的Pb污染(>;10μg/L)。
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引用次数: 0
GIS based NRCS-CN modeling of rainfall-runoff in river Thamirabarani sub-basin, Southern India 基于GIS的印度南部Thamirabarani河流域降雨径流nccs - cn模型
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2023.07.001
S. Kaliraj , N. Chandrasekar , K.K. Ramachandran , M. Lalitha

River Thamirabarani sub-basin lies in the southern part of the Western Ghats in the Kanyakumari district of Tamil Nadu, India. The basin’s landforms are formed by swift surficial characteristics with undulated terrains composed of steep-sloped valleys, valley fills, and short-length streams with intensive flows that makes-up site-specific hydro-morphological characteristics. In this study, the GIS-based Natural Resource Conservation Service-Curve Number (NRCS-CN) model is used to assess rainfall-induced runoff by analyzing various hydrological parameters. The curve number (CN) is assigned to each hydrologic soil group (HSGs) based on the measurement of initial abstraction (Ia) and potential maximum retention (S) derived from soils, landuse/ land cover, antecedent soil moisture, etc. The resulting map shows the estimated runoff at the rate of 2.27 – 5.94 mm/m2/yr for the whole study area, whereas the higher runoff rate (4.83 – 5.94 mm/m2/yr) is noted in the upland range of the swift surficial terrains in the north and north-eastern parts that encompasses undulated structural hills, steep-sloped valleys, inselberg, and denudational hills, etc., whereas the work of swift surficial terrains and associated slope gradient of the landforms are considered to be higher runoff rate than the other parts. The moderate runoff rate (2.92 – 3.98 mm/m2/yr) is estimated in the middle parts of pediplains that consist of croplands, plantations, riverbanks, fallows, and built-up areas. Significantly, the lower runoff rate (<2.92 mm/m2/yr) sparsely occurred in the different landforms of the middle and southern parts that include pediplains, riverbanks, natural vegetative covers, valley-filled sediment deposits, etc. Overall results indicate that the higher runoff found over the swift surficial landforms in the north and north-eastern parts due to intensive flow through short-length stream orders. This study is mainly used for understanding hydro-morphological processes and their impacts on basin environments.

Thamirabarani河次流域位于印度泰米尔纳德邦Kanyakumari区的西高止山脉南部。该盆地的地貌由快速的地表特征和起伏的地形形成,这些地形由陡峭的斜坡山谷、山谷填充物和密集流动的短河流组成,构成了特定地点的水文形态特征。在本研究中,基于GIS的自然资源保护服务曲线数(NRCS-CN)模型通过分析各种水文参数来评估降雨径流。根据土壤、土地利用/土地覆盖、前期土壤湿度等对初始抽取量(Ia)和潜在最大保持量(S)的测量,将曲线编号(CN)分配给每个水文土壤组(HSG)。结果图显示了整个研究区域2.27–5.94 mm/m2/年的估计径流,而在北部和东北部快速表层地形的高地范围内,包括起伏的构造丘陵、陡峭的斜坡山谷、inselberg和剥蚀丘陵等,径流率较高(4.83–5.94 mm/m2/yr)。,而快速地表地形和相关地形坡度的作用被认为比其他部分的径流率更高。中等径流量(2.92–3.98 mm/m2/年)估计位于由耕地、种植园、河岸、休耕地和建成区组成的原平原中部。值得注意的是,较低的径流量(<;2.92mm/m2/yr)稀疏地出现在中南部的不同地貌中,包括原平原、河岸、天然植被覆盖物、山谷沉积物等。总体结果表明,北部和东北部的快速地表地貌上的径流较高,这是由于通过短河流顺序的密集流动。本研究主要用于了解水文形态过程及其对流域环境的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Scour evolution downstream of grade-control structures under unsteady flows: A theoretical analysis 非定常流场下控级结构下游冲刷演化的理论分析
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2023.04.001
Jessica Di Nardi , Michele Palermo , Fabián A. Bombardelli , Stefano Pagliara

River restoration projects often make use of grade-control structures in order to prevent channel degradation, improve their ecological resources, and regulate floods. The time evolution of localized scour that can occur downstream of grade-control structures represents a crucial component in the design of those projects. This is because erosion processes may undermine the stability of hydraulic structures and compromise their effectiveness. Although localized scour has been widely investigated (mostly via laboratory models), there is significant scatter in results produced by the large number of obtained empirical equations. Consequently, there is a need for more general tools based on theoretical approaches that might overcome the limits of ad-hoc, experimental methods. In particular, a model based on the application of the Phenomenological Theory of Turbulence (PTT) has been recently developed by the last three authors to predict scour-depth evolution under steady flows. Nevertheless, in practical applications, scour phenomena usually occur during floods characterized by variable flow discharges. In this paper, for the first time to the authors’ knowledge, a detailed analysis of the basic assumptions of the PTT-evolution model allowed us to assess their validity for scour processes at different grade-control structures under unsteady (time-dependent) flows. By re-analyzing the dynamics of the scour evolution under unsteady flow conditions, we corroborate its consistency with the steady counterpart and with jet-driven scour problems, evincing that a homothetical evolution of the scour hole occurs during the developed phase. Finally, we provide a confirmation of the general validity of the theoretical approach presented herein. We show that it can be successfully applied to a large range of structure configurations and hydraulic conditions, without any significant modification. This last result is particularly important, since it paves the way to a unique, first-principles-based tool that can be helpful to design hydraulic structures.

河流修复工程通常利用等级控制结构来防止河道退化,改善其生态资源,并调节洪水。可能发生在坡度控制结构下游的局部冲刷的时间演变是这些项目设计中的一个关键组成部分。这是因为侵蚀过程可能会破坏水工结构的稳定性并损害其有效性。尽管已经对局部冲刷进行了广泛的研究(主要是通过实验室模型),但所获得的大量经验方程产生的结果存在显著的分散性。因此,需要基于理论方法的更通用的工具,这些工具可能会克服特设实验方法的限制。特别是,最近三位作者开发了一个基于湍流现象学理论(PTT)应用的模型,用于预测稳定流下的冲刷深度演变。然而,在实际应用中,冲刷现象通常发生在以可变流量为特征的洪水期间。在本文中,据作者所知,首次对PTT演变模型的基本假设进行了详细分析,使我们能够评估它们在非定常(时间相关)流量下对不同坡度控制结构冲刷过程的有效性。通过重新分析非恒定流条件下冲刷演变的动力学,我们证实了其与稳定冲刷和射流驱动冲刷问题的一致性,表明冲刷坑在发育阶段发生了相似的演变。最后,我们证实了本文提出的理论方法的普遍有效性。我们表明,它可以成功地应用于各种结构配置和水力条件,而无需任何重大修改。最后一个结果尤其重要,因为它为一种独特的、基于第一原理的工具铺平了道路,这种工具有助于设计水工结构。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of a spur dike location in a 90° sharp channel bend on flow field: Focus on anisotropy degree and anisotropy nature 90˚急转弯处丁坝位置对流场的影响:关注各向异性程度和各向异性性质
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2023.05.001
Mojtaba Mehraein , Anton J. Schleiss , Marjan Goodarzi

In this research, the flow features around a spur dike located in a 90˚ sharp channel bend have been studied experimentally in detail. Results showed that the effects of the spur dike on upstream sections increased by increasing α (spur dike location from the beginning of the bend). In addition, by increasing α, the horseshoe vortex (C3) and secondary flow in the channel bend (C1) strengthened. The energy and the Reynolds shear stress in the C3 region decreased by increasing α. It is recommended to use a Barycenteric Map (BM) instead of the normal Reynolds stresses to find the anisotropy nature accurately. A strong anisotropic condition was detected at the border of the recirculation flow region and the main flow. However, in the C3 and the interaction regions, the isotropy condition improved. In the main flow region, by increasing α, the isotropy degree improved. However, by increasing α, an increase in the development of the region with a high anisotropy degree towards the recirculation region was observed. The anisotropy degree in the near-bed layer region and the shear layer region is comparable. However, the anisotropy nature is different. The maximum error of the numerical simulation based on isotropic turbulence occurred at the shear layer region where the severe cigar-shaped turbulence occurred.

在这项研究中,对位于90˚急转弯处的丁坝周围的流动特征进行了详细的实验研究。结果表明,丁坝对上游断面的影响随着α(丁坝位置从弯道开始)的增加而增加。此外,通过增加α,通道弯曲处的马蹄涡(C3)和二次流(C1)增强。C3区的能量和雷诺剪切应力随α的增加而减小。建议使用Barycenteric Map(BM)而不是法向雷诺应力,以准确地找到各向异性性质。在回流区和主流的边界处检测到强烈的各向异性条件。然而,在C3和相互作用区域,各向同性条件得到改善。在主流区,通过增加α,各向同性度得到改善。然而,通过增加α,观察到具有高各向异性程度的区域向再循环区域的发展增加。近床层区域和剪切层区域的各向异性程度相当。然而,各向异性的性质是不同的。基于各向同性湍流的数值模拟的最大误差出现在发生严重雪茄状湍流的剪切层区域。
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引用次数: 1
SWAT based Bi-objective framework for improving the degree of consumer satisfaction in urban water allocation system under streamflow uncertainty 基于SWAT的流量不确定性下提高城市配水系统用户满意度的双目标框架
IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2023.03.001
Mahdi Moudi , Majid Galoie , Yuan He , Xu Hong , Mohsin Shafi , Artemis Motamedi

A long-term perspective of climate change patterns leads to the strategic management of limited water resources and consequently achieves the maximum level of social satisfaction between the various sectors in a water allocation system. Therefore, this study first adopts Soil &Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate future climate change patterns [2020–2050 and 2051–2080] under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) scenarios, and then the extracted SWAT output is applied as the initial data in a bi-level programming model in which the manager of the upper level (MUL) tries to maximize the level of social satisfaction between sub-areas while the lower level manager (MLL) focuses on maximization of multi-sectoral social satisfaction. Also, historical data collected from Zayandehrud basin, Iran as a case study are considered for calibration, validation, and subsequently projecting the runoff data for mentioned periods. Based on the output related to the regional hydrological cycle under the [RCP4.5/2020–2080 & RCP8.5/2020–2080] scenarios, the study area is strongly affected by drought and relative temperature increase. Accordingly, due to the shrinkage of water resources in the basin, the highest degree of consumer satisfaction is related to the domestic sector as the smallest recipient of water resources. Thus, with the development of adaptation measures such as the use of demand reduction leverage for the effective use of limited water resources, the challenge of demand dissatisfaction for both the industrial and agricultural sectors is significantly improved.

从长远角度看待气候变化模式,可以对有限的水资源进行战略管理,从而在水资源分配系统的各个部门之间实现最大程度的社会满意度。因此,本研究首先采用Soil&;在代表性浓度路径(RCP)情景下模拟未来气候变化模式[2020–2050和2051–2080]的水评估工具(SWAT),然后将提取的SWAT输出用作双层规划模型中的初始数据,其中上层管理者(MUL)试图最大化子区域之间的社会满意度,而下层管理者(MLL)专注于多部门社会满意度的最大化。此外,将从伊朗Zayandehrud盆地收集的历史数据作为案例研究,用于校准、验证和随后预测上述时期的径流数据。根据[RCP4.5/200-2080&;RCP8.5/200-2080]情景下与区域水文循环相关的输出,研究区域受到干旱和相对气温升高的强烈影响。因此,由于流域内水资源的萎缩,消费者满意度最高的是作为水资源最小接受者的国内部门。因此,随着适应措施的制定,例如利用减少需求的杠杆来有效利用有限的水资源,工业和农业部门对需求不满的挑战大大改善。
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引用次数: 3
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Journal of Hydro-environment Research
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