Accurate prediction of tunnel water inflow is critical for ensuring construction safety and risk control in tunnel engineering. However, traditional regression methods face significant challenges, including limited sample sizes, imbalanced data, complex feature interactions, and difficulty in engineering deployment. To address these issues, this study proposes an intelligent prediction framework that integrates data augmentation, model optimization, interpretability, and online deployment, and additionally possesses strong adaptability to dynamic field conditions. First, the SMOGN undersampling method is employed to balance and augment the training dataset, effectively expanding sparse samples and suppressing the influence of outliers, thereby enhancing the model’s generalization ability. Subsequently, LightGBM is improved through Optuna-based hyperparameter optimization and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based feature weight adjustment, forming the AHP-OP-LightGBM hybrid model. This approach reduces prediction error by 15.89 % while aligning feature weights more closely with physical constraints. Compared with conventional optimization strategies, the model demonstrates superior capability in representing hydrogeological characteristics due to the dual mechanism of automated hyperparameter tuning and feature weight correction. Correlation analysis and SHAP-based interpretability further clarify the nonlinear synergistic mechanisms governing the coupled geomechanical-hydrological processes controlling tunnel water inflow. To support engineering application, a cloud-deployed online prediction system is developed using web technologies, integrating SHAP for transparent decision support. Additionally, an incremental learning module is incorporated to accommodate dynamic data variations. Validation using a small set of local incremental samples yields a maximum prediction error of only 1.9169 m3/h, demonstrating strong compatibility and accuracy across different engineering scenarios. Comparative experiments show that, on average, the proposed model reduces prediction error by 39.65 % and improves fitting accuracy by 18.43 % compared with traditional regression methods. Overall, this study provides a high-precision, interpretable, and generalizable intelligent solution for predicting tunnel water inflow under complex geological conditions.
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