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Correction to: Efficient Multigrid Algorithms for Three-Dimensional Electromagnetic Forward Modeling 修正:三维电磁正演模拟的高效多网格算法
IF 7.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-025-09886-8
Yongfei Wang, Jianxin Liu, Rongwen Guo
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引用次数: 0
Inflow–Outflow Behaviour of a Coastal Karst Aquifer Based on 3D Geostatistical Reconstruction of the Thermal Field 基于热场三维地统计重建的沿海岩溶含水层流入流出行为
IF 7.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-025-09881-z
Maria Rosaria Alfio, Gabriella Balacco, Phaedon C. Kyriakidis, Giovanni Bruno, Maria Dolores Fidelibus

The spatiotemporal patterns of groundwater temperature may effectively delineate groundwater flow systems and help to identify aquifer recharge areas and preferential flow pathways. In coastal aquifers, they may also offer valuable insights into the spatial extent of seawater intrusion and saltwater upconing. Applying simple Kriging interpolation and variography techniques on a high-density three-dimensional temperature dataset derived from groundwater temperature–depth profiles has enabled the reconstruction of the three-dimensional thermal field for the southernmost part of the Salento coastal karst aquifer (Southern Italy). This region shows structural complexity, which poses challenges for conceptual modelling assessment. The 3D temperature model produced is a groundbreaking reconstruction derived from field data that highlights crucial insights into a shallow hydrogeological environment. Given the hydrogeological complexity and the regional scale of the aquifer, which pose challenges to straightforward groundwater flow modelling, the information on temperature distribution from maps and cross sections of the three-dimensional thermal field emerges as a pivotal tool in identifying crucial hydrogeological features. This study, bolstered by geological, geomorphological, and structural data, demonstrates that the analysis of the groundwater thermal field, which encapsulates information about aquifer permeability heterogeneity and anisotropy, is instrumental in deducing the hydraulic behaviour of faults and revealing aquifer properties. From a geostatistical perspective, this study underscores the comprehensive nature of the 3D Kriging model: it incorporates all available groundwater temperature data from all explored depths, resulting in temperature maps that show a more accurate spatial distribution than those created by Kriging within ± 2 m of selected depths.

地下水温度的时空格局可以有效地描绘地下水流动系统,有助于确定含水层补给区和优先流动路径。在沿海含水层中,它们还可以提供有关海水入侵和咸水上升的空间范围的宝贵见解。利用简单的Kriging插值和变差技术,对地下水温度-深度剖面的高密度三维温度数据集进行了重建,实现了意大利南部萨伦托沿海喀斯特含水层最南端的三维热场。该区域显示出结构复杂性,这对概念建模评估提出了挑战。生成的3D温度模型是一项突破性的重建,该模型基于现场数据,突出了对浅层水文地质环境的重要见解。考虑到水文地质的复杂性和含水层的区域规模,这对直接的地下水流动建模构成了挑战,从三维热场的地图和横截面中获得的温度分布信息成为识别关键水文地质特征的关键工具。在地质、地貌和构造数据的支持下,本研究表明,地下水热场分析包含了含水层渗透率非均质性和各向异性的信息,有助于推断断层的水力行为和揭示含水层的性质。从地质统计学的角度来看,这项研究强调了三维克里格模型的全面性:它包含了所有勘探深度的所有可用地下水温度数据,从而得出的温度图比克里格在选定深度±2米范围内绘制的温度图显示出更准确的空间分布。
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引用次数: 0
Permafrost and Freshwater Systems in the Arctic as Tipping Elements of the Climate System 北极的永久冻土和淡水系统是气候系统的引爆要素
IF 4.9 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-025-09885-9
Victor Brovkin, Annett Bartsch, Gustaf Hugelius, Elisa Calamita, J. Jelle Lever, Eunhan Goo, Hyungjun Kim, Tobias Stacke, Philipp de Vrese

The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the globe. Such Arctic amplification rapidly changes hydrometeorological conditions with consequences for the structuring of cold-adapted terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Arctic ecosystems, which have a relatively small buffering capacity, are particularly susceptible to hydrometeorological regime shifts thus frequently undergo system-scale transitions. Abrupt ecosystem changes are often triggered by disturbances and extreme events that shift the ecosystem state beyond its buffering threshold capacity thus irreversibly changing its functioning (ecosystem tipping). The tipping depends on spatial and temporal scales. At the local scale, feedback between soil organic matter and soil physics could lead to multiple steady states and a tipping from high to low soil carbon storages. On the continental scale, local tipping is smoothed and the changes are rather gradual (no clear tipping threshold). However, due to the centennial timescale of soil carbon and vegetation dynamics, Arctic ecosystems are not in equilibrium with the changing climate, so a tipping could occur at a later time. Earth Observation (EO) is useful for monitoring ongoing changes in permafrost and freshwater systems, in particular extreme events and disturbances, as indicators of a possible tipping point. Lake change observations support gradual rather than abrupt transitions in different permafrost regions until a hydrological tipping point where lake areas start to decline leading to regional drying. Due to floodplain abundance, floodplains should be considered separately when using satellite-derived water extent records to analyse potential tipping behaviour associated with lakes. Reduction in surface water extent, increasing autocorrelation of water level of larger lakes and the impact of extreme events on ground ice can all be observed with satellite data across the Arctic. The analysis of Earth System simulations suggests significant impacts of changes in permafrost hydrology on hydroclimate in the tropics and subtropics, but there is no clear threshold in global temperature for these shifts in hydroclimate.

北极的变暖速度是全球其他地区的几倍。这种北极放大迅速改变了水文气象条件,影响了适应寒冷的陆地和水生生态系统的结构。北极生态系统具有相对较小的缓冲能力,特别容易受到水文气象变化的影响,因此经常发生系统尺度的转变。生态系统的突变通常是由干扰和极端事件引发的,这些干扰和极端事件使生态系统状态超出了其缓冲阈值能力,从而不可逆转地改变了其功能(生态系统倾卸)。引爆取决于空间和时间尺度。在局部尺度上,土壤有机质和土壤物理之间的反馈可能导致多个稳定状态,并导致土壤碳储量从高到低的倾斜。在大陆尺度上,局部倾卸是平滑的,变化是相当渐进的(没有明确的倾卸阈值)。然而,由于土壤碳和植被动态的百年时间尺度,北极生态系统与气候变化并不平衡,因此临界点可能会在晚些时候发生。地球观测(EO)有助于监测永久冻土和淡水系统的持续变化,特别是作为可能的临界点的指标的极端事件和扰动。湖泊变化观测支持在不同的永久冻土区逐渐而不是突然转变,直到一个水文临界点,即湖泊面积开始下降导致区域干燥。由于泛滥平原丰富,在使用卫星衍生的水位记录来分析与湖泊相关的潜在倾卸行为时,应单独考虑泛滥平原。地表水范围的减少、较大湖泊水位的自相关增加以及极端事件对地面冰的影响都可以通过整个北极的卫星数据观察到。地球系统模拟分析表明,多年冻土水文变化对热带和亚热带水文气候有显著影响,但全球温度对这些水文气候变化没有明确的阈值。
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引用次数: 0
Geophysical and Remote-Sensing Constraints on the Fault Controls on Groundwater Accumulation in Basement Rock Aquifers in Sinai, Egypt 埃及西奈基底岩含水层断层对地下水成藏控制的地球物理和遥感约束
IF 7.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-025-09883-x
Muhamed Elshalkany, Mohamed Ahmed, William Sauck, Abdou Abouelmagd, Sherif Mansour, Islam N. El-Nekhiely, Mohamed Abdelfattah, Ramadan Abdelrehim, Mohamed Gamal, Ahmed Omar

Aquifers in basement terrains, including fractured basement rocks and superimposed alluvial deposits associated with the dissecting ephemeral streams, are very complex and their groundwater accumulation is significantly affected by their structural settings. However, the distribution and intersection of geologic structures, along with their mechanistic controls on aquifer thickness, depth, and groundwater flow, remain unclear. In this study, an integrated approach is developed that combines fieldwork, remote-sensing data, and geophysical techniques (vertical electrical sounding, seismic refraction, ground-penetrating radar) to characterize, and better understand the role of, geologic structures (e.g., faults and shear zones) in controlling groundwater accumulation in the basement aquifer systems of southern Sinai, Egypt. Three major structural elements were identified in southern Sinai; their spatial distribution and intersections predominantly control groundwater accumulation. A total of 334 locations were identified, in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, at the intersections of two or more fault/shear zone systems, representing optimal aquifer conditions. The intersection of N–S, NE–SW, and NW–SE shear zones and/or the N–S shear zone and ENE–WSW fault resulted in a thicker aquifer unit with a shallow depth to water table, at these sites the faults/shear zones act as barriers for groundwater flow. The intersection of N–S with NW–SE shear zones, N–S shear zones with NE–SW faults, and NE–SW shear zones with NW–SE faults produced a thin aquifer with a greater depth to water table; in these, the faults/shear zones act as channels for groundwater flow. These findings provide valuable new insights into the significance of structural elements and their spatial distribution in controlling groundwater availability in basement rock aquifers. The methodologies employed in this research can be used as a framework for similar studies in other regions with highly fractured basement terrains.

Graphical Abstract

基底地层的含水层非常复杂,包括断裂的基底岩和与断裂的短暂溪流相关的叠加冲积层,其地下水的聚集受其构造环境的显著影响。然而,地质构造的分布和交汇,以及它们对含水层厚度、深度和地下水流量的机制控制仍不清楚。在本研究中,开发了一种综合方法,将实地调查、遥感数据和地球物理技术(垂直电测深、地震折射、探地雷达)相结合,以表征和更好地理解地质构造(如断层和剪切带)在控制埃及西奈南部基底含水层系统中地下水积聚方面的作用。西奈半岛南部确定了三个主要的结构要素;它们的空间分布和交汇控制着地下水的聚集。在地理信息系统(GIS)环境中,在两个或多个断层/剪切带系统的交叉处共确定了334个位置,代表了最佳的含水层条件。N-S、NE-SW和NW-SE剪切带和(或)N-S剪切带与ENE-WSW断层的交汇导致含水层单元较厚,距地下水位较浅,在这些地点,断层/剪切带起到了地下水流动的屏障作用。N-S与NW-SE剪切带、N-S剪切带与NE-SW断裂、NE-SW剪切带与NW-SE断裂相交形成较薄的含水层,距地下水位深度较大;在这些地区,断层/剪切带充当地下水流动的通道。这些发现为构造要素及其空间分布在控制基岩含水层地下水可利用性中的意义提供了有价值的新见解。本研究所采用的方法可作为其他具有高度断裂基底地形地区类似研究的框架。图形抽象
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引用次数: 0
Why Choose Deep Learning for Surface-Wave Inversion 为什么选择深度学习进行表面波反演
IF 7.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-025-09882-y
Xinhua Chen, Jianghai Xia, Jie Feng, Feng Cheng, Jingyin Pang, Yu Hong

With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, deep-learning-based inversion frameworks are increasingly being adopted to tackle the challenges associated with surface-wave dispersion curve (DC) inversion. Compared with classical model-driven methods, the deep-learning-based inversion is known for its higher efficiency and independence from the initial model. Existing researches, however, have focused on algorithm design and case applications. The reforms that deep learning techniques can bring to inversion need further exploration. Therefore, we explored the anti-noise ability, stability, performance in joint inversion scenarios, and generalization ability of deep-learning-based inversions. For the first three characteristics, we select a published neural network and the neighborhood algorithm as representatives of deep-learning-based and model-driven inversions, respectively, to compare the corresponding performance of these two methods. The comparative tests and statistical analyses reveal that deep-learning-based inversion exhibits superior anti-noise ability and stability, but shows limited improvement in joint inversion performance. And the statistical results from tests for generalization ability show that the trained neural network can predict the shear-wave velocity (Vs) model whose Vs oversteps the model space of training dataset within 20%. In particular, we discover that the generalization ability is positively correlated with the prediction precision of Vs. This analysis provides valuable insights for choosing appropriate inversion methods and contributes to a deeper understanding of deep-learning-based inversions.

随着人工智能的快速发展,基于深度学习的反演框架被越来越多地用于应对与面波频散曲线(DC)反演相关的挑战。与经典的模型驱动方法相比,基于深度学习的反演以其更高的效率和独立于初始模型而著称。然而,现有的研究主要集中在算法设计和案例应用上。深度学习技术能为反演带来的改革还需要进一步探索。因此,我们探索了基于深度学习的反演的抗噪能力、稳定性、在联合反演场景中的表现以及泛化能力。针对前三个特征,我们分别选择了已发表的神经网络和邻域算法作为基于深度学习的反演和模型驱动反演的代表,比较这两种方法的相应性能。对比测试和统计分析结果表明,基于深度学习的反演在抗噪能力和稳定性方面表现出色,但在联合反演性能方面提升有限。而泛化能力测试的统计结果表明,训练后的神经网络可以预测剪切波速度(Vs)模型,其 Vs 超越训练数据集模型空间的幅度在 20% 以内。特别是,我们发现泛化能力与 Vs 的预测精度呈正相关。这一分析为选择合适的反演方法提供了宝贵的见解,有助于加深对基于深度学习的反演的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Efficient Multigrid Algorithms for Three-Dimensional Electromagnetic Forward Modeling 用于三维电磁前向建模的高效多网格算法
IF 7.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-025-09879-7
Yongfei Wang, Jianxin Liu, Rongwen Guo

Multigrid (MG) methods solve large linear equations on fine grids by projecting them onto progressively coarser grids, on which the problem can be solved more cheaply. They have become among the most effective and prospective solvers for large linear systems. However, due to the abundant null solution space and the inclusion of the air layer, traditional MG methods struggle to converge in three-dimensional (3D) electromagnetic (EM) numerical forward modeling. Served as one major contribution of this review, we provide a complete review on strategies, introduced in recent decades to develop efficient MG algorithms for EM forward modeling. We focus on how these strategies handle the convergence difficulties encountered in EM numerical forward modeling. Another observation is that most state-of-the-art MG solvers have been developed and examined against traditional Krylov subspace iterative solvers, but there is little knowledge on the numerical performance of different strategies. Therefore, another primary contribution of this work is to provide a complete review of the numerical performance of different strategies used in MG solvers for 3D EM forward modeling in geophysical applications. For this purpose, firstly, we briefly introduce on finite difference and finite element numerical discretization of the electrical field partial differential equations to demonstrate why EM forward modeling is challenging to solve. Subsequently, some background information on MG methods is provided to show how they can be implemented in general. Then, different strategies used in different MG methods are introduced in great detail to address the convergence issues encountered in EM forward modeling in geophysical applications, caused by the abundant null solution space and the inclusion of the air layer. Finally, we present four newly developed MG algorithms and compare their overall numerical performance in terms of their parallel ability, stability, efficiency and memory cost by using two increasingly complex models. Since one major motivation for improving the EM forward modeling efficiency is to speed up the inversion process, their perspective of efficiency improvement in EM inversions has been discussed. On this basis, authors and researchers can choose one particular MG solver for their own EM forward modeling problems.

多网格(MG)方法是在精细网格上求解大型线性方程,将其投影到逐渐粗糙的网格上,这样求解问题的成本更低。它们已成为大型线性系统最有效和最有前途的求解器之一。然而,由于存在大量的零解空间和空气层,传统的电磁正演方法在三维电磁数值模拟中难以收敛。作为本综述的主要贡献之一,我们对近几十年来为EM正演建模开发高效MG算法的策略进行了全面回顾。我们关注这些策略如何处理电磁数值正演模拟中遇到的收敛困难。另一个观察结果是,大多数最先进的MG求解器已经开发出来,并针对传统的Krylov子空间迭代求解器进行了测试,但对不同策略的数值性能知之甚少。因此,这项工作的另一个主要贡献是对地球物理应用中用于三维电磁正演模拟的MG求解器中使用的不同策略的数值性能进行了完整的回顾。为此,首先,我们简要介绍了电场偏微分方程的有限差分和有限元数值离散,以说明为什么电磁正演建模具有挑战性。随后,提供了一些关于MG方法的背景信息,以说明如何在一般情况下实现它们。然后,详细介绍了不同MG方法中使用的不同策略,以解决地球物理应用中由于丰富的零解空间和包含空气层而导致的EM正演模拟的收敛问题。最后,我们提出了四种新开发的MG算法,并通过使用两个日益复杂的模型,比较了它们在并行能力、稳定性、效率和内存成本方面的总体数值性能。由于提高电磁正演模拟效率的一个主要动机是加快反演过程,因此讨论了他们对电磁反演效率提高的看法。在此基础上,作者和研究人员可以为自己的EM正演建模问题选择一个特定的MG求解器。
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引用次数: 0
Atmospheric Gravity Waves and Medium Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances at Auroral Latitudes 大气重力波与极光纬度中尺度电离层扰动
IF 4.6 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-025-09880-0
Alexander Kozlovsky, Gunter Stober, Ruslan Sherstyukov, Mark Lester, Evgenia Belova, Johan Kero, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa

To investigate physical links between the Earth atmosphere and ionosphere, we present data of the medium-scale atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs, periods 25–100 min) observed at auroral latitudes. The AGWs at 80–100 km altitude were inferred from the wind data of the Nordic meteor radar Cluster with spatial/height/time resolution 90 km/5 km/10 min respectively. At the same time, medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) were detected as variations of the electron density (critical frequency foF2) at the height of F2 maximum (hmF2, 250–350 km) in the data of the ionosonde at Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (67°N, 27°E, Finland) operating with 1-min time resolution. We found that, except a “fall anomaly” in mid-September–mid-December, the season-local time distributions of AGW at 90 km and MSTID at hmF2 are similar. Namely, larger amplitudes are observed in the dark-sky conditions, such that the separation between smaller and larger amplitudes occurs at solar terminator. However, during the fall anomaly, amplitudes of MSTID at hmF2 are the same as in spring- and wintertime, whereas AGWs at 90 km are practically suppressed. This anomaly starts with the fall transition in the atmospheric circulation and is associated with a sharp change of the phase of semi-diurnal tides. The results are consistent with the idea that the AGWs observed near the mesopause may be generated due to turbulence in the lower atmosphere (below) or due to electrodynamical forces and auroral activity in the ionospheric E-layer. The latter plays a major role in the auroral region and may be more important in dark-sky conditions.

为了研究地球大气和电离层之间的物理联系,我们提供了在极光纬度观测到的中尺度大气重力波(AGWs,周期为25-100分钟)的数据。80 ~ 100 km高度的agw是根据空间/高度/时间分辨率分别为90 km/5 km/10 min的北欧流星雷达团的风资料推断出来的。同时,利用Sodankylä地球物理观测站(67°N, 27°E,芬兰)在1 min时间分辨率下运行的电离层探测器数据,以F2最大高度(hmF2, 250 ~ 350 km)的电子密度(临界频率foF2)变化形式检测到中尺度行电离层扰动(MSTIDs)。结果表明,除9月中旬至12月中旬存在“秋季异常”外,90 km处的AGW和hmF2处的MSTID的季节局时分布基本相似。也就是说,在黑暗的天空条件下观测到较大的振幅,因此在太阳终点处出现了较大振幅和较小振幅的分离。然而,在秋季异常期间,hmF2处的MSTID振幅与春冬季相同,而90 km处的agw实际上被抑制。这种异常始于大气环流的秋季转变,并与半日潮相位的急剧变化有关。这些结果与观测到的在中层顶附近的AGWs可能是由于低层大气(下图)的湍流或电离层e层的电动力和极光活动而产生的观点一致。后者在极光区起主要作用,在暗天条件下可能更重要。
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引用次数: 0
The Active Plasma and E-field Sounders (APES) Mission Concept 主动等离子体和电子场探测仪(APES)任务概念
IF 7.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-025-09878-8
A. T. Chartier, C. R. Skolar, R. H. Esser, L. Almarhabi, A. Haapala, J. Carroll, C. Ward

The Active Plasma and E-field Sounders (APES) mission concept aims to resolve orders-of-magnitude errors in modeling transionospheric radio propagation through the midlatitude trough, and to determine which physical mechanism(s) are responsible for generating plasma irregularities there. APES will observe ionospheric electron density profiles and signals from ground transmitters along its orbital track, allowing for a constrained test of propagation models. The mission will also perform small-scale in situ science, differentiating between the long-held temperature gradient instability and the Kelvin–Helmholtz/gradient drift instabilities as potential causes of irregularities in the trough. The centerpiece of the mission is the first-ever oblique topside ionospheric sounder, providing 2D electron density-altitude profiles along the orbital track through cooperative operation between two satellites. The leading satellite will produce swept-frequency HF transmissions that will reflect off the ionosphere before being received by the follower. The following satellite will also receive signals transmitted by the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN). Both satellites will observe electron density at 1 m along-track resolution, while single-point electron temperature, vector electric field, neutral density and neutral wind will also be provided. The mission will operate in a nominal 350 × 800 km elliptical orbit, with along-track spacing varied from < 1 to 750 km over 12 months of science operations in an inclination between 50–87° and 103–130° (depending on the rideshare). Each bus carries a 250 m/s propulsion system to control eccentricity and for orbit maintenance. The orbital analysis has been used to select orbits with > 500 passes through the trough in each quarter.

主动等离子体和e场探测仪(APES)任务概念旨在解决通过中纬度槽的过渡层无线电传播建模中的数量级误差,并确定导致那里产生等离子体不规则的物理机制。APES将沿着轨道观察电离层电子密度分布和地面发射机发出的信号,从而对传播模型进行有约束的测试。该任务还将进行小规模的原位科学,区分长期存在的温度梯度不稳定性和开尔文-亥姆霍兹/梯度漂移不稳定性,作为槽内不规则的潜在原因。该任务的核心是有史以来第一个倾斜顶部电离层测深仪,通过两颗卫星之间的合作操作,提供沿轨道轨道的二维电子密度高度剖面。领先的卫星将产生扫描频率的高频传输,在被跟随卫星接收之前会反射电离层。以下卫星也将接收超级双极光雷达网络(superdamn)发出的信号。两颗卫星将以1米的轨道分辨率观测电子密度,同时还将提供单点电子温度、矢量电场、中性密度和中性风。该任务将在标称350 × 800公里的椭圆轨道上运行,在12个月的科学运行中,轨道间距从1到750公里不等,倾角在50-87°和103-130°之间(取决于拼车)。每辆巴士携带一个250米/秒的推进系统来控制偏心和轨道维护。轨道分析已被用来选择轨道与>; 500通过槽在每个季度。
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引用次数: 0
Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs? 从空间监测气候突变系统的多个阶段:GCOS的基本气候变量满足需要吗?
IF 4.9 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-024-09866-4
S. Loriani, A. Bartsch, E. Calamita, J. F. Donges, S. Hebden, M. Hirota, A. Landolfi, T. Nagler, B. Sakschewski, A. Staal, J. Verbesselt, R. Winkelmann, R. Wood, N. Wunderling

Many components of the Earth system feature self-reinforcing feedback processes that can potentially scale up a small initial change to a fundamental state change of the underlying system in a sometimes abrupt or irreversible manner beyond a critical threshold. Such tipping points can be found across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and are expressed in very different observable variables. For example, early-warning signals of approaching critical transitions may manifest in localised spatial pattern formation of vegetation within years as observed for the Amazon rainforest. In contrast, the susceptibility of ice sheets to tipping dynamics can unfold at basin to sub-continental scales, over centuries to even millennia. Accordingly, to improve the understanding of the underlying processes, to capture present-day system states and to monitor early-warning signals, tipping point science relies on diverse data products. To that end, Earth observation has proven indispensable as it provides a broad range of data products with varying spatio-temporal scales and resolutions. Here we review the observable characteristics of selected potential climate tipping systems associated with the multiple stages of a tipping process: This includes i) gaining system and process understanding, ii) detecting early-warning signals for resilience loss when approaching potential tipping points and iii) monitoring progressing tipping dynamics across scales in space and time. By assessing how well the observational requirements are met by the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), we identify gaps in the portfolio and what is needed to better characterise potential candidate tipping elements. Gaps have been identified for the Amazon forest system (vegetation water content), permafrost (ground subsidence), Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, AMOC (section mass, heat and fresh water transports and freshwater input from ice sheet edges) and ice sheets (e.g. surface melt). For many of the ECVs, issues in specifications have been identified. Of main concern are spatial resolution and missing variables, calling for an update of the ECVS or a separate, dedicated catalogue of tipping variables.

地球系统的许多组成部分都具有自我强化的反馈过程,这些过程可能以超过临界阈值的有时是突然或不可逆的方式,将微小的初始变化扩大到基础系统的基本状态变化。这样的临界点可以在广泛的空间和时间尺度上找到,并以非常不同的可观察变量表示。例如,正如在亚马逊雨林所观察到的那样,即将到来的关键转变的早期预警信号可能在几年内在局部植被空间格局的形成中表现出来。相比之下,冰盖对倾斜动力学的敏感性可以在盆地到次大陆的尺度上展开,持续几个世纪甚至几千年。因此,为了提高对潜在过程的理解,捕捉当前系统状态并监测早期预警信号,临界点科学依赖于各种数据产品。为此目的,地球观测已被证明是不可或缺的,因为它提供了具有不同时空尺度和分辨率的广泛数据产品。在此,我们回顾了与临界点过程的多个阶段相关的选定的潜在气候临界点系统的可观测特征:这包括i)获得系统和过程的理解,ii)在接近潜在临界点时检测恢复力损失的早期预警信号,以及iii)在空间和时间尺度上监测不断发展的临界点动态。通过评估全球气候观测系统(GCOS)定义的基本气候变量(ecv)满足观测要求的程度,我们确定了组合中的差距,以及更好地描述潜在候选临界点要素所需的内容。已经确定了亚马逊森林系统(植被含水量)、永久冻土(地面沉降)、大西洋经向翻转环流、AMOC(剖面质量、热量和淡水输送以及来自冰盖边缘的淡水输入)和冰盖(如地表融化)的空白。对于许多ecv,规范中的问题已经被确定。主要关注的是空间分辨率和缺失变量,要求更新ECVS或单独的,专门的提示变量目录。
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引用次数: 0
Retirement of Editor-in-Chief 总编辑退休
IF 4.9 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-025-09876-w
Michael J. Rycroft
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Surveys in Geophysics
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