Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering最新文献_第10页

Correlation of seismic demand and performance for severely damaged low-rise buildings during the February 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquake sequence 2023年2月塔吉克斯坦kahramanmaraki地震序列中严重受损低层建筑地震需求与性能的相关性

IF 4.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2025.109999

Alemdar Bayraktar , Serap Bayraktar , Tomás R. Núñez , Svetlana Brzev , Carlos E. Ventura , Tony Y. Yang , Mehmet Akköse , Emin Hökelekli , Yavuzhan Taş

This study investigates the structural characteristics and seismic demand–performance correlation for low-rise buildings that sustained severe damage during the February 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquake sequence. The research focuses on the Islahiye district of Gaziantep Province, which was heavily impacted due to its proximity to the fault line and exposure to two major earthquake events (M7.7 and M6.6) which occurred within 11 min. The study uses data from 1778 severely damaged low-rise buildings constructed using reinforced concrete (RC), masonry, steel, and prefabricated technologies. First, a comprehensive evaluation of the seismological setting of Islahiye and the characteristics of the recorded strong ground motions is presented. Next, post-earthquake surveys of severely damaged low-rise buildings are analyzed with consideration of structural system type, construction date, occupancy type, and number of storeys. Subsequently, the observed damage patterns in masonry and RC buildings are evaluated in accordance with Turkish seismic design codes. Finally, the seismic demand–performance correlations under the sequential impacts of the M7.7 and M6.6 earthquakes are investigated by considering fundamental periods, Sa-Sd spectral capacity curves, linear and nonlinear acceleration response spectra, and linear and nonlinear energy response spectra and history diagrams including various energy components. The results indicate that the fundamental periods of the damaged buildings are closely aligned with the spectral and peak response characteristics of the recorded ground motions, leading to resonance effects. Furthermore, the sequential nature of seismic actions significantly amplified cumulative damage, especially in buildings characterized by low ductility, inadequate detailing, and substandard construction quality.

本研究调查了在2023年2月基耶省kahramanmaraki地震序列中遭受严重破坏的低层建筑的结构特征和地震需求-性能相关性。这项研究的重点是加济安泰普省的伊斯拉希耶地区，由于靠近断层线，并且在11分钟内发生了两次大地震（7.7级和6.6级），该地区受到了严重影响。该研究使用了1778座严重受损的低层建筑的数据，这些建筑采用了钢筋混凝土（RC）、砖石、钢铁和预制技术。首先，综合评价了伊斯拉希耶的地震环境和记录的强地面运动特征。其次，考虑结构体系类型、施工日期、使用类型、层数等因素，对严重受损低层建筑的震后调查进行分析。随后，根据土耳其抗震设计规范，对砖石和钢筋混凝土建筑观察到的损伤模式进行了评估。最后，通过考虑基本周期、Sa-Sd谱容量曲线、线性和非线性加速度响应谱、线性和非线性能量响应谱以及包含各种能量分量的历史图，研究了7.7级和6.6级地震顺序影响下的地震需求-性能相关性。结果表明，受损建筑物的基本周期与记录的地震动频谱和峰值响应特征密切相关，导致共振效应。此外，地震作用的顺序性显著地放大了累积损伤，特别是在延展性低、细节不足和建筑质量不合格的建筑物中。

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引用次数: 0

A stochastic synthesis method for near-fault ground motions incorporating fling-step effects 考虑飞阶效应的近断层地震动随机综合方法

IF 4.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2026.110098

Xiang Liu , Xun Zhang , Jin Zhang , Derui Kong , Xing Wan

To realistically simulate the pulse characteristics associated with the fling-step effect in near-fault ground motions, a comprehensive stochastic pulse synthesis model, termed FNSDR-GW-FS, is proposed. The model integrates a high-frequency stochastic ground motion simulation based on a fully nonstationary spectral representation with an improved Gabor wavelet–based modeling of low-frequency velocity pulses, while explicitly accounting for the randomness of fling-step pulse parameters. Representative near-fault ground motion records are selected from the Engineering Strong-Motion (ESM) database, and the sample size is expanded by rotating the two horizontal components to identify the strongest pulse direction. Continuous wavelet transform is employed to extract low-frequency velocity pulses, and particle swarm optimization is used to identify pulse parameters from recorded motions. Probabilistic models of pulse parameters are established within different magnitude ranges using maximum likelihood estimation and validated by the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The statistical distributions are further refined by incorporating physical correlations with source and site characteristics. High-frequency random acceleration time histories are then generated and combined with stochastic low-frequency pulse velocities to synthesize near-fault ground motions exhibiting fling-step effects. Results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively reproduces unidirectional velocity pulses and permanent displacements, significantly improving the physical realism and engineering representativeness of simulated ground motions.

为了真实地模拟近断层地震动中与飞阶效应相关的脉冲特性，提出了一种综合随机脉冲综合模型FNSDR-GW-FS。该模型将基于完全非平稳谱表示的高频随机地面运动模拟与改进的基于Gabor小波的低频速度脉冲建模相结合，同时明确考虑了飞阶脉冲参数的随机性。从工程强震（ESM）数据库中选择有代表性的近断层地震动记录，并通过旋转两个水平分量来确定最强脉冲方向，从而扩大样本量。采用连续小波变换提取低频速度脉冲，采用粒子群算法从运动记录中识别脉冲参数。利用极大似然估计建立了脉冲参数在不同量级范围内的概率模型，并通过Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验进行了验证。通过结合与源和站点特征的物理相关性，统计分布进一步细化。然后生成高频随机加速度时程，并将其与随机低频脉冲速度相结合，合成出具有飞阶效应的近断层地震动。结果表明，该模型有效地再现了单向速度脉冲和永久位移，显著提高了模拟地震动的物理真实感和工程代表性。

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引用次数: 0

DEM investigation of realistic particle shape and particle breakage on the mechanical characteristics of geogrid-reinforced calcareous sand under cyclic loading 循环荷载作用下土工格栅加筋钙质砂力学特性的真实颗粒形态和颗粒破碎的DEM研究

IF 4.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2025.110066

Danda Shi , Jinzhong Niu , Zhiming Chao , Gary Fowmes

Calcareous sand, commonly used as a foundation material in ocean engineering, is prone to degradation under cyclic loading. Numerous studies have confirmed that geogrid reinforcement can resist deformation. However, the macro- and micro-mechanical characteristics of reinforced calcareous sand are still insufficient. In this study, the 3D laser scanning techniques were employed to capture the actual shapes of calcareous sand particles, and then the strength of particles with different sizes was calibrated through a series of single-particle breakage experiments. Additionally, a series of numerical triaxial cyclic shear tests were conducted with varying geogrid configurations and cyclic stress ratios (CSR). The relationships between the macroscopic and microscopic mechanical characteristics of geogrid-reinforced calcareous sand were investigated. The main conclusions are as follows: Geogrid reinforcement increases particle contacts and enhances structural integrity, which makes coordination number, fabric and force anisotropies exhibit higher values than unreinforced samples, while particle breakage reduces these parameters. Two distinct patterns are exhibited under different cyclic stress ratios: under the low CSR of 0.6, the cumulative plastic strain stabilizes and relative breakage ratio also remains nearly constant; while under the high CSR of 1.8, the cumulative plastic strain and the relative breakage ratio increase continuously, the coordination number decreases due to contact loss after particle rearrangement because particle breakage occurs continuously. The number of crushed particles varies with the shapes, and the order of breakage number is Branch > Flake > Block > Spindle.

钙质砂是海洋工程中常用的地基材料，在循环荷载作用下易发生退化。大量研究证实土工格栅加固具有抗变形能力。然而，对钙质砂的宏观和微观力学特性的研究还不够充分。本研究采用三维激光扫描技术捕捉钙质砂颗粒的实际形状，并通过一系列单颗粒破碎实验标定不同粒径颗粒的强度。此外，还进行了一系列不同土工格栅配置和循环应力比（CSR）的三轴循环剪切数值试验。研究了土工格栅加筋钙质砂宏观力学特性与细观力学特性之间的关系。主要结论如下：土工格栅加固增加了颗粒接触量，增强了结构完整性，使配位数、织物和力各向异性均高于未加固的样品，而颗粒破碎使这些参数降低。在不同的循环应力比下表现出两种不同的规律：在较低的CSR为0.6时，累积塑性应变趋于稳定，相对破坏比也基本保持不变；而在较高的CSR为1.8时，累积塑性应变和相对破碎比不断增大，由于颗粒连续破碎，颗粒重排后的接触损失导致配位数减少。破碎颗粒的数量随形状的不同而不同，破碎数量的顺序为支粒&片状&块状&块状；锭子。

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引用次数: 0

Seismic input method for layered soils in static-dynamic coupling analyses based on infinite element boundaries 基于无限单元边界的层状土动静耦合分析中的地震输入方法

IF 4.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2026.110099

Peng Zhou , Guangwei Cao , Xuanming Ding , Changjie Xu , Changjie Zheng

For static-dynamic coupling analysis of soil–structure interaction (SSI) in semi-infinite layered soils under seismic actions, careful attention must be paid to both the inconsistency between static and dynamic artificial boundary conditions and the accuracy-practicability balance of seismic input methods for layered soils. In this study, matrix decomposition techniques are used to rigorously justify and validate an equivalent treatment that represents infinite element boundary effects via equivalent nodal forces, consistent with real initial static constraints, by performing initial geostatic stress analysis in static–dynamic workflows. Subsequently, the time delay method (TDM) is combined with wave theory to develop a seismic input method for layered soils with infinite element boundaries. This method accurately captures wave transmission and reflection events at soil interfaces and achieves an optimal balance between computational accuracy and practical applicability. A free-field analysis of a five-layer soil model and a seismic nonlinear response analysis of a monopile-soil system are conducted. The analysis results show that directly applying the homogeneous soil input method to layered soils (Method 1) leads to a severe underestimation of soil displacement responses, exceeding 50 % in nonlinear SSI analysis. Although Method 2, which incorporates initial wave events at interfaces, offers a marked improvement over Method 1, it still incurs inaccurate predictions in deeper layers (an underestimation of approximately 20 % in a nonlinear free-field analysis) due to its simplified treatment of wave propagation. By contrast, the proposed method (Method 3) achieves the closest agreement with the reference solution in terms of peak responses. It not only maintains computational efficiency but also more faithfully reproduces complex wave phenomena. Critically, as nonlinear displacement is highly sensitive to cumulative energy input, Methods 1 and 2 underestimate soil-pile cumulative displacements in the later stages of seismic actions.

地震作用下半无限层状土土-结构相互作用（SSI）的静动力耦合分析，必须注意静动力人工边界条件的不一致性和层状土地震输入方法的准确性与实用性的平衡。在这项研究中，矩阵分解技术被用于严格证明和验证通过等效节点力表示无限单元边界效应的等效处理，与真实的初始静态约束一致，在静态动态工作流程中执行初始地静力分析。随后，将时间延迟法（TDM）与波动理论相结合，建立了具有无限元边界的层状土地震输入方法。该方法准确地捕捉了土壤界面波的透射和反射事件，实现了计算精度和实际适用性的最佳平衡。对五层土模型进行了自由场分析，并对单桩-土体系进行了地震非线性响应分析。分析结果表明，将均匀土输入法直接应用于层状土（方法1）会导致土体位移响应严重低估，在非线性SSI分析中超过50%。虽然方法2结合了界面处的初始波事件，比方法1有了明显的改进，但由于其对波传播的简化处理，在较深的层中仍然会产生不准确的预测（在非线性自由场分析中低估约20%）。相比之下，所提出的方法（方法3）在峰值响应方面与参考解最接近。它不仅保持了计算效率，而且更忠实地再现了复杂的波动现象。关键是，由于非线性位移对累积能量输入高度敏感，方法1和方法2低估了地震作用后期的土桩累积位移。

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引用次数: 0

A VMD-based baseline correction method of strong ground motion records and permanent displacement evaluation 基于vmd的强地震动记录基线校正方法及永久位移评估

IF 4.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2026.110089

Baofeng Zhou , Cong Zhang , Xiaomin Wang , Yinuo Wang , Yue Yin , Maosheng Gong

Permanent displacement derived from strong-motion records is a key indicator for assessing surface deformation and the performance of fault-crossing structures, but is highly sensitive to baseline drift in acceleration time histories. This study proposes a fully automated baseline-correction scheme that combines Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) with a three-segment fitting strategy. The velocity record is first decomposed by VMD, and the long-period residual component is used to identify the baseline drift. Optimal segmentation times in the pre-event, strong-motion and post-event windows are then searched on the residual, and a first- or second-order three-segment baseline is constructed, yielding mutually consistent acceleration, velocity and displacement time histories. The method is applied to near-fault records from four large earthquakes (the 1999 Chi–Chi, 2008 Wenchuan, 2011 Tohoku and 2023 Turkey events) and validated against co-seismic displacements from nearby GPS stations. For both single-pulse and double-pulse records, the corrected velocity tails converge to zero and the permanent displacements agree well with GPS, while the recovered multi-step displacement of double-pulse records is better preserved than with the widely used eBASCO procedure. The permanent displacement fields reconstructed for thrust-type events exhibit clear fault-normal offsets and pronounced hanging-wall effects, whereas the strike-slip event is characterized by fault-parallel motions with smaller vertical components, consistently reflecting the underlying source mechanisms. Overall, the proposed method offers a robust solution for strong motion records baseline correction and permanent displacement estimation, with potential applications in ground motion analysis, damage assessment, and resilient infrastructure design.

从强震记录中得到的永久位移是评估地表变形和断层穿越构造性能的关键指标，但在加速度时程中对基线漂移高度敏感。本文提出了一种将变分模态分解（VMD）与三段拟合策略相结合的全自动基线校正方案。首先对速度记录进行VMD分解，利用长周期残差分量识别基线漂移。然后在残差上搜索事件前、强运动和事件后窗口的最佳分割时间，并构建一阶或二阶三段基线，从而产生相互一致的加速度、速度和位移时间历史。该方法应用于4次大地震（1999年集济、2008年汶川、2011年东北和2023年土耳其地震）的近断层记录，并与附近GPS站的同震位移进行了验证。对于单脉冲和双脉冲记录，修正速度尾收敛于零，永久位移与GPS一致，而双脉冲记录的恢复多步位移比广泛使用的eBASCO程序保存得更好。逆冲型地震的永久位移场表现出明显的断层-正向偏移和明显的上盘效应，而走滑事件的特征是断层平行运动，垂直分量较小，一致地反映了潜在的震源机制。总的来说，所提出的方法为强震记录基线校正和永久位移估计提供了一个强大的解决方案，在地面运动分析、损伤评估和弹性基础设施设计中具有潜在的应用前景。

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引用次数: 0

Seismic performance of simply supported hot rolled shape steel–UHPC composite girder bridges under near-fault ground motions 近断层地震动作用下简支热轧型钢-超高性能混凝土组合梁桥的抗震性能

IF 4.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2025.110075

Xiangcheng Meng , Haidong Wang , Suiwen Wu , Guang Chen , Xudong Shao , Junfei Huang

The hot rolled shape steel (HRSS)–ultra high performance concrete (UHPC) composite girder bridge proposed by the authors is a novel bridge type, which can achieve a substantial weight reduction of about 50 %. This bridge type is expected to lower seismic inertial forces and demands on the substructure. However, these relative seismic advantages have not been systematically investigated or quantified. To address this gap, the seismic response of a typical simply supported HRSS-UHPC bridge is analyzed and quantified under near-fault ground motions using Incremental Dynamic Analysis-based fragility analysis. For comparison purpose, a conventional prestressed concrete (PSC) bridge is taken a reference. Results reveal that the HRSS-UHPC bridge's reduced superstructure mass (48.23 % lighter) significantly lowers overall seismic demands, particularly in the transverse direction, and enhances its collapse resistance. However, superstructure lightweight design does not consistently improve longitudinal bearing control. In addition, Effective Peak Acceleration (EPA) is identified as the optimal intensity measure for both bridge models. Moreover, the HRSS-UHPC bridge demonstrates superior seismic performance and collapse resistance, as evidenced by a significant increase in median EPA values for all structural components except for the bearing damage in the longitudinal direction. Meanwhile, the vulnerability of HRSS-UHPC bridge shifts to the bearing damage in the longitudinal direction at higher damage states, increasing girder unseating risk. Furthermore, components like piers and shear keys, inherited from the PSC design, are over-conservative. These findings validate the seismic advantages of the lightweight design of bridge superstructures.

作者提出的热轧型钢-超高性能混凝土组合梁桥是一种新型的桥型，可实现50%左右的大幅度减重。这种桥梁类型有望降低地震惯性力和对下部结构的要求。然而，这些相对的地震优势还没有被系统地研究或量化。为了解决这一问题，采用基于增量动力分析的脆性分析方法，对近断层地震动下典型简支式hss - uhpc桥的地震响应进行了分析和量化。为了进行比较，本文以一座传统预应力混凝土（PSC）桥梁为参考。结果表明，HRSS-UHPC桥的上部结构质量减轻了48.23%，显著降低了整体抗震要求，特别是横向抗震要求，并增强了其抗倒塌能力。然而，上层建筑轻量化设计并不能始终如一地改善纵向轴承控制。此外，有效峰值加速度（EPA）被确定为两种桥梁模型的最佳强度度量。此外，HRSS-UHPC桥梁表现出优异的抗震性能和抗倒塌性能，除纵向轴承损伤外，所有结构部件的EPA值中值显著增加。同时，在高损伤状态下，hss - uhpc桥梁的脆弱性向纵向上的轴承损伤转移，增加了脱梁风险。此外，从PSC设计中继承下来的桥墩和剪切键等部件过于保守。这些研究结果验证了桥梁上部结构轻量化设计的抗震优势。

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引用次数: 0

Novel seismic Dam Damage Intensity scale and empirical models for predicting seismically induced damages in embankment dams 堤防地震损伤烈度的新尺度与经验模型

IF 4.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2025.110079

P. Anbazhagan, Surya Prakash

Earthquakes pose significant risks to dam safety and jeopardize lives. Current damage assessment methods lack a standardized scale for classifying seismic damage to embankment dams, and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale falls short in addressing the complexities of dam damage. This study introduces: (1) a novel Dam Damage Intensity (DDI) scale, specifically designed to quantify earthquake-induced damage to embankment dams, and (2) novel empirical DDI predictive models that integrate seismic parameters: magnitude (M_w) and hypocentral distance (R_hyp) with dam characteristics: height (H_D), age (A_D), and dam type (DT). The DDI scale classifies damage into five levels, from minor (1) to complete failure (5). Based on the analysed dataset of 109 dams affected by 16 earthquakes, potential seismic damage is associated with M_w ≥ 6.0 and R_hyp ≤ 250 km. Four functional forms of DDI predictive models were evaluated: two based on modified Intensity Prediction Equations (IPE) (Models 3 & 4), one from modified Ground Motion Prediction Equations (Model 2), and one from a modified dam crest settlement model (Model 1). IPE models consistently outperformed the others, achieving the highest R² (≈0.62), lowest errors (MSE = 0.79, RMSE = 0.89, MAE = 0.75), and minimal log-likelihood value (1.300–1.302), and exhibited consistent predictive performance under repeated out-of-sample validation. Sensitivity analysis revealed that R_hyp and H_D are the most influential seismic and dam parameters respectively, contributing to DDI predictions. DDI scale and predictive models offer a reliable tool for preliminary damage assessment for embankment dams in earthquake-prone regions.

地震对大坝安全构成重大威胁，危及生命安全。目前的损伤评估方法缺乏对堤防地震损伤进行分类的标准化尺度，修正Mercalli烈度（MMI）尺度在处理大坝损伤的复杂性方面存在不足。本研究介绍：(1)一种新的大坝损伤强度（DDI）量表，专门用于量化地震对堤防大坝的损伤；(2)一种新的经验DDI预测模型，该模型将地震参数：震级（Mw）和震源距离（Rhyp）与大坝特征：高度（HD）、年龄（AD）和大坝类型（DT）结合起来。DDI量表将损坏分为五个级别，从轻微(1)到完全损坏(5)。基于16次地震影响的109座大坝的分析数据，潜在震害与Mw≥6.0，Rhyp≤250 km相关。评估了四种DDI预测模型的功能形式：两种基于修正的强度预测方程（IPE）（模型3 & 4），一种基于修正的地震动预测方程（模型2），一种基于修正的坝顶沉降模型（模型1）。IPE模型始终优于其他模型，达到最高的R2(≈0.62)，最低的误差（MSE = 0.79, RMSE = 0.89, MAE = 0.75）和最小的对数似然值（1.300-1.302），并且在重复的样本外验证中表现出一致的预测性能。敏感性分析表明，Rhyp和HD分别是影响最大的地震和大坝参数，有助于预测DDI。DDI尺度和预测模型为地震易发区堤防大坝的初步损伤评估提供了可靠的工具。

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引用次数: 0

Seismic response analysis of underground structures considering soil spatial variability under different site classes 考虑土壤空间变异性的地下结构在不同场地类型下的地震反应分析

IF 4.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2025.110081

Wenhao Zhang , Pinghe Ni , Mi Zhao , Xiuli Du , M. Hesham El Naggar

Site conditions represent a critical factor influencing the performance and safety of underground structures. Therefore, quantifying the impact of soil spatial variability on seismic response is essential in performance-based seismic design. This study integrates random field theory with statistical analysis. The Karhunen–Loève (K–L) expansion is used to construct spatially variable random fields of soil parameters, which are then employed to evaluate the uncertainty in the seismic response of underground structures under different site conditions. The primary focus of this study is to quantify how soil spatial variability modifies the dispersion and uncertainty of seismic responses across various site types. Site I (hard soil) exhibits the least dispersion with relatively stable seismic performance. Meanwhile, the spatial variability of soil parameters critically influences the response of underground structures in Sites II (medium hard soil) and III (medium soft soil). Site II demonstrates distinct variability across different seismic intensities, and the probability that the inter-story displacement under random-field conditions exceeds the deterministic result is greater than 50 %, leading to a significant increase in displacement demands. Under strong shaking, site II experiences the most pronounced deterioration in performance, leading to an increased risk of collapse. Site III demonstrates stronger nonlinear site effects, especially under low-intensity earthquakes; the response is characterized by great uncertainty and dispersion. Relying solely on deterministic analyses may lead to overestimation of structural performance. Considering site conditions and soil spatial variability is essential for improving the seismic safety and reliability of underground structures.

场地条件是影响地下结构性能和安全的关键因素。因此，在基于性能的抗震设计中，量化土壤空间变异性对地震反应的影响是必不可少的。本研究将随机场理论与统计分析相结合。利用karhunen - lo (K-L)展开构造土体参数的空间可变随机场，并利用该随机场来评价不同场地条件下地下结构地震反应的不确定性。本研究的主要重点是量化土壤空间变异性如何改变不同场地类型地震反应的分散性和不确定性。场地1（硬土）分散性最小，抗震性能相对稳定。同时，场地II（中硬土）和III（中软土）土壤参数的空间变异性对地下结构的响应具有重要影响。站点II在不同地震烈度下表现出明显的变异性，随机场下层间位移超过确定性结果的概率大于50%，导致位移需求显著增加。在强烈的震动下，site II的性能恶化最为明显，导致倒塌的风险增加。站点III表现出较强的非线性站点效应，特别是在低烈度地震下；该响应具有很大的不确定性和分散性。仅仅依靠确定性分析可能会导致对结构性能的高估。考虑场地条件和土壤空间变异性是提高地下结构抗震安全可靠度的必要条件。

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引用次数: 0

Enhanced earthquake occurrence time prediction: A hybrid LSTM-Kalman Filter approach 增强地震发生时间预测：一种混合LSTM-Kalman滤波方法

IF 4.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2025.110064

Wahyu Sukestyastama Putra , Sunarno , I Wayan Mustika

Complex temporal patterns and noisy nature of seismic data persistently challenge researchers seeking to predict earthquake timing with high accuracy. Existing deep learning methods often suffer from error accumulation in sequential predictions and lack effective mechanisms for dynamic adjustment. This research introduces an integrated methodology combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with Kalman filtering to improve the precision and reliability of earthquake timestamp predictions. By combining LSTM’s proficiency in identifying long-term temporal correlations with Kalman filter’s iterative updating mechanism, our approach achieves successive improvement in prediction accuracy through real-time error utilization. Evaluation on century-scale seismic datasets from Japan and Java demonstrates that the hybrid approach significantly outperforms a conventional LSTM model, reducing the Mean Absolute Error by 66%–72% and the Root Mean Square Error by 68%–70%. The model achieved R-squared values above 0.9997 for both regions and maintained consistent performance in cross-regional tests. Analysis of the Kalman Gain showed stable convergence between 0.56 and 0.58, indicating the integration of the model’s predictions with new observational data. These results confirm that integrating statistical filtering with deep learning increases the reliability of temporal earthquake prediction, showing strong potential for improving Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EWS).

复杂的时间模式和地震数据的噪声特性一直给寻求高精度预测地震时间的研究人员带来挑战。现有的深度学习方法往往存在序列预测误差积累的问题，缺乏有效的动态调整机制。本文提出了一种长短期记忆网络与卡尔曼滤波相结合的综合方法，以提高地震时间戳预测的精度和可靠性。该方法将LSTM识别长期时间相关性的能力与卡尔曼滤波的迭代更新机制相结合，通过实时误差利用实现预测精度的连续提高。对日本和Java的世纪尺度地震数据集的评估表明，混合方法明显优于传统的LSTM模型，平均绝对误差降低了66%-72%，均方根误差降低了68%-70%。该模型在两个区域的r平方值均达到0.9997以上，在跨区域测试中性能保持一致。卡尔曼增益分析显示，在0.56 ~ 0.58之间稳定收敛，表明模型的预测与新的观测数据相结合。这些结果证实，将统计过滤与深度学习相结合可以提高时间地震预测的可靠性，显示出改善地震预警系统（EWS）的强大潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Seismic fragility assessment of the crane and pile-supported wharf system under liquefaction conditions considering IMs optimization and damage characteristics 考虑IMs优化和损伤特征的液化条件下起重桩基码头体系地震易损性评价

IF 4.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2026.110095

Yi Zhang , Xiaoyu Zhang , Xiaofeng Man

The seismic fragility assessment of the crane and pile-supported wharf system under liquefaction conditions remains challenging, primarily due to challenges in selecting representative ground motion intensity measures (IMs) and defining quantitative, system-level damage states. This study develops an integrated fragility assessment framework that addresses both challenges. First, a high-fidelity three-dimensional finite element model, validated against the centrifuge shaking table experiment, is used to simulate the system's response under an ensemble of 100 ground motions. A two-stage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, considering five optimal criteria across four engineering demand parameters (EDPs), is employed to identify the optimal IM. The results demonstrate that peak ground velocity (PGV) is superior to traditional peak ground acceleration (PGA) for characterizing the system's seismic demand under soil liquefaction. Second, the Hilbert-Huang Transform is applied to the deck displacement response to extract damage characteristics in the frequency domain. A novel Marginal Spectrum Assurance Criterion (MSAC) is proposed, establishing clear thresholds for serviceable, repairable, and near-collapse damage states. Finally, probabilistic seismic fragility curves are derived using the optimal IM (PGV) and the new damage thresholds. Comparative analysis shows that the PGV-based fragility model yields a more efficient demand estimation with less uncertainty than the PGA-based model. The proposed framework provides a more reliable tool for performance-based seismic safety assessment of coastal port engineering in liquefiable ground.

液化条件下起重机和桩支撑码头系统的地震易碎性评估仍然具有挑战性，主要是因为在选择具有代表性的地震动强度测量（IMs）和定义定量的系统级损伤状态方面存在挑战。本研究开发了一个综合脆弱性评估框架，以应对这两个挑战。首先，建立了一个高保真三维有限元模型，并通过离心机振动台实验验证，模拟了系统在100次地面运动下的响应。采用两阶段模糊综合评判法，综合考虑4个工程需求参数的5个最优准则，确定最优IM。结果表明，峰值地速度（PGV）优于传统的峰值地加速度（PGA）来表征土体液化条件下的地震需求。其次，对桥面位移响应进行Hilbert-Huang变换，在频域提取损伤特征；提出了一种新的边际频谱保证准则（MSAC），为可使用、可修复和接近崩溃的损坏状态建立了明确的阈值。最后，利用最优损伤阈值（PGV）和新的损伤阈值，导出了地震易损性概率曲线。对比分析表明，与基于pgv的脆弱性模型相比，基于pgv的脆弱性模型具有更高的需求估计效率和更小的不确定性。该框架为沿海港口工程液化地基的抗震安全性能评价提供了一种更为可靠的工具。

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引用次数: 0