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Martian microbes research and lessons learnt for forensic science 火星微生物研究和法医学的经验教训
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.02.005
Max Coleman

A new method for looking for life outside the Earth is used as an example to demonstrate how ways of presenting complex scientific concepts to the general public, used in planetary science, could be used in forensic science. The work led to a pared down, practical definition of detectable Life for planetary exploration, An organised system capable of processing energy sources to its advantage. For nearly three quarters of Earth’s history the only lifeforms were microbes, which are the target for looking for extraterrestrial life. Microbes are microscopic and may be sparsely distributed, but their metabolic products can form large, durable rocks, much easier to find and which may contain the organisms or their remains.

There are similar challenges in presenting astrobiological and forensic science. Both may have to deal with very large or very small numbers which are not immediately comprehensible but can be understood by analogy. To increase the impact on the listener or reader, dramatic analogues are valuable, for example, referring to the mineralised microbial metabolic products as, “fossilised breath of bacteria” demands the audience's attention and engages them before more detailed explanations are given. The power of practical experiments or demonstrations is most important to reinforce what might otherwise be a fairly abstract concept. Surprisingly, most of these approaches can be made to work equally well in both spoken and written forms as well as in both sciences.

以一种寻找地球外生命的新方法为例,说明行星科学中向公众介绍复杂科学概念的方法可如何用于法医学。这项工作为行星探索带来了一个简洁实用的可探测生命定义,即一个有组织的系统,能够处理能源以发挥其优势。在地球近四分之三的历史中,唯一的生命形式是微生物,而这正是寻找地外生命的目标。微生物是微小的,可能分布稀少,但它们的代谢产物可以形成大而耐用的岩石,更容易找到,其中可能含有生物体或其残骸。在介绍天体生物学和法医学时也会遇到类似的挑战。两者都可能需要处理非常大或非常小的数字,这些数字无法立即理解,但可以通过类比来理解。例如,将矿化的微生物代谢产物称为 "细菌的呼吸化石",会吸引听众的注意力,并在进行更详细的解释之前吸引他们。实际实验或演示的力量对于强化原本可能相当抽象的概念最为重要。令人惊讶的是,这些方法中的大多数都能以口语和书面形式以及在两门科学中同样有效地发挥作用。
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引用次数: 0
Interpretation of a paint cross-transfer on a burglary scene – A case report 盗窃现场油漆交叉转移的解读 - 案例报告
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.02.004
Florian Vanneste , Yu Chen Lim-Hitchings , Geneviève Massonnet , Kyra Lunstroot

In forensic paint examination, paint traces retrieved on a crime scene are regularly compared to painted objects seized from a suspect. Less often, traces are only observed on the seized objects and compared to a damaged painted object on the crime scene. In some specific cases, paint traces may be found both on the crime scene and on one or multiple seized painted objects. The latter may be the result of a cross-transfer that occurred during the illicit act. However, mere coincidence is another possible explanation for these observations and may not be neglected. Proper consideration of the relevant populations and sufficient analytical data permits the evaluation of the results given activity level propositions. This allows the forensic expert to present a transparent and well-balanced statement on the value of their findings concerning the disputed issues in court.

在法医油漆检验中,在犯罪现场发现的油漆痕迹通常会与从嫌疑人身上缴获的油漆物品进行比较。比较少见的情况是,只在缴获的物品上观察油漆痕迹,然后与犯罪现场受损的油漆物品进行比较。在某些特殊情况下,在犯罪现场和一件或多件缴获的油漆物品上都可能发现油漆痕迹。后者可能是非法行为中发生的交叉转移的结果。然而,单纯的巧合也可能是这些观察结果的另一种解释,不可忽视。对相关人群和充分的分析数据进行适当考虑后,就可以根据活动水平命题对结果进 行评估。这样,法医专家就可以在法庭上就其与争议问题有关的研究结果的价值发表透明、平衡的声明。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the ethical dimensions in forensic entomology: From codes of conduct to professional accountability 探讨法医昆虫学的伦理问题:从行为守则到专业责任
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.02.003
Ashraf Mashaly , Mohammed S. Al-Khalifa

This article investigates a critical part of professional careers: adhering to a code of ethics that defines proper behavior within the context of one's specialized practice. It aims to improve the setting of forensic entomology work by highlighting the ethical issues that frequently emerge. The primary goal is to uncover common ethical issues involved in this field's everyday activities and provide informed advice on appropriate resolution options. This investigation dives into the complex interaction of religious beliefs, cultural aspects, and issues of ethics, evaluating their relevance in forensic entomology. It examines a wide range of ethical issues, from the ethics involved in collecting samples at crime scenes and morgues to the ethics created into scientific investigations, report writing, and court testimony. These guiding principles are critical in setting scientific standards and building public trust in forensic entomology's ability to provide exceptional services. Notably, regardless of whether the forensic entomology service provider is accredited by any validating organization, these ethical requirements remain critical, emphasizing their global application.

本文探讨了职业生涯中的一个关键部分:遵守道德规范,在专业实践范围内界定正确的行为。文章旨在通过强调经常出现的道德问题,改善法医昆虫学工作的环境。主要目的是揭示该领域日常活动中常见的道德问题,并就适当的解决方法提供明智的建议。本调查深入探讨了宗教信仰、文化方面和伦理问题之间的复杂互动关系,评估了它们在法医昆虫学中的相关性。它研究了广泛的伦理问题,从在犯罪现场和停尸房收集样本所涉及的伦理问题,到科学调查、报告撰写和法庭作证所涉及的伦理问题。这些指导原则对于制定科学标准和建立公众对法医昆虫学提供卓越服务能力的信任至关重要。值得注意的是,无论法医昆虫学服务提供商是否获得任何认证组织的认可,这些道德要求仍然至关重要,强调其全球适用性。
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引用次数: 0
The forensic imaging technique of age progression used within missing people cases: The Italian Missing Children association realizing age progression for Missing Child Kenya 在失踪人员案件中使用的年龄递增法医成像技术:意大利失踪儿童协会为肯尼亚失踪儿童实现年龄递增
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.02.002
Laura Donato , Douglas H. Ubelaker , Luigi Marsella , Maryana Munyendo , Michele Treglia , Jessika Camatti , Sara Dagoli , Rossana Cecchi

The age progression technique allows to update identification photos of individuals who have been missing for years. This method is based on the study of the facial variation and on the dynamics of facial growth. Knowledge about changes in the distribution of facial fat and the tone of the cartilage allows realistic predictions of the facial appearance after many years. Beside these elements, age progression is also supported by similar characters between family members. This is why photos of the missing and family members are used to create an age progression, making the new identikit accurate.

Non-profit associations are crucial for the dissemination of information on the problem of missing persons. In Italy, the Italian Missing Children association provides for free an age progression service with the support of forensic anthropology. With the activation of a protocol, consisting of guidelines, and a form for the request for age progression by family members, the Italian Missing Children has started a collaboration with Missing Child Kenya. It allowed to disseminate up-to-date photos of the presumed current appearance of the missing children in Kenya. Thus, in the present study some cases are reported, in which age progression technique was applied.

The photos provided by Italian Missing Children were shown in video documentaries made by Missing Child Kenya, allowing to continue the dissemination of age progression photo during the Covid quarantines and to keep the population active in the search for the missing.

年龄增长技术可以更新失踪多年的人的识别照片。这种方法基于对面部变化和面部生长动态的研究。通过了解面部脂肪分布和软骨色调的变化,可以逼真地预测多年后的面部外观。除了这些因素外,家庭成员之间的相似特征也支持年龄的增长。非营利性协会对于失踪人员信息的传播至关重要。在意大利,意大利失踪儿童协会在法医人类学的支持下免费提供年龄推算服务。意大利失踪儿童协会与肯尼亚失踪儿童协会开始合作,启动了一项协议,其中包括指导原则和家庭成员申请年龄进展的表格。这使得肯尼亚失踪儿童的最新照片得以传播。意大利失踪儿童组织提供的照片在肯尼亚失踪儿童组织制作的视频纪录片中播放,从而在科维德检疫期间继续传播年龄进展照片,并让人们积极寻找失踪人员。
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引用次数: 0
Comparison of DNA recovery methods and locations from regularly-worn hooded jumpers before and after use by a second wearer 比较从经常穿戴的连帽衫中提取 DNA 的方法和位置,以及第二个穿戴者使用前后的情况
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.02.001
Georgina E. Meakin , Guilherme S. Jacques , Ruth M. Morgan

Items of worn clothing are routinely examined for DNA in forensic casework, commonly with the expectation that at least some of the DNA will come from a wearer of the item, so-called ‘wearer DNA’. This study investigated DNA recovered from hooded jumpers that were regularly worn and laundered for four weeks and then subsequently worn by a different individual for four hours. This study also systematically investigated whether using different recovery methods or sampling locations on the jumpers might distinguish between DNA deposited by the regular and most recent wearers of clothing. Four volunteers each wore a new hooded jumper regularly (6 h/day, 2 days/week, washed at weekends) during two 4-week periods. At the end of each month, DNA was first recovered by cutting out and mini-taping the inside left cuff, half-collar, pocket and underarm fabric. The jumpers were then worn by a different individual for four hours, and DNA was again recovered by cutting out and mini-taping, but this time from the inside right cuff, half-collar, pocket and underarm fabric. All DNA samples (n = 128) were quantified and profiled. DNA quantities ranged from 0 to ∼40 ng with an outlier of ∼150 ng, and no significant differences were observed among recovery methods and sampling locations, nor whether one or two wearers had worn the jumpers. However, one volunteer consistently deposited significantly more DNA to their jumpers than two other volunteers, confirming the impact of ‘shedder status’ on DNA deposition during wearing of clothing. When jumpers were regularly worn by one wearer, the majority (72.7–83.3 %) of the samples for all wearers across both months comprised a major profile of the wearer with a minor profile of non-wearer alleles. When jumpers were then worn by a second wearer, the composition of the profiles obtained were generally reproducible across the recovery methods used, the sampling locations and the two replicates of the experiment for each pairing of wearers. However, profile compositions differed between wearer pairings. Overall, ∼60 % of profiles obtained gave a major profile of the regular wearer, whereas ∼30 % gave a major profile of the second wearer. The remaining profiles comprised other much less frequent observations of single-source profiles of each wearer and equal proportions of DNA from both wearers. Non-wearer DNA was also observed in the majority of samples, both before and after jumpers were worn by a second wearer. For one volunteer’s jumpers, a recurring non-wearer DNA profile was observed that could be attributed to their romantic partner, and this DNA persisted on the jumpers even after being worn by the second wearer. This study provides insight on the impact of shedder status, multiple wearers, different recovery methods and sampling locations on the quantities of DNA and compositions of DNA profiles recovered from authentically regularly-worn hooded jumpers. The findings also provide a preliminary dataset that can

在法医办案过程中,通常会对穿过的衣物进行 DNA 检测,预计至少有部分 DNA 来自于衣物的穿着者,即所谓的 "穿着者 DNA"。本研究调查了从连帽式连身衣中提取的 DNA,这些连帽式连身衣被定期穿着并清洗四周,然后由不同的人穿着四小时。这项研究还系统地调查了采用不同的回收方法或在连体衣上不同的取样位置是否可以区分衣物的经常穿着者和最近穿着者所沉积的 DNA。四名志愿者在两个为期 4 周的时间内,每人定期(每天 6 小时,每周 2 天,周末清洗)穿着一件新的连帽衫。每个月末,首先将左袖口内侧、半领、口袋和腋下的布料剪下并用小胶带粘好,以回收 DNA。然后,由不同的人穿上连体衣四小时,再次剪下并用小胶带粘贴,但这次是从右袖口内侧、半领、口袋和腋下的布料中提取DNA。对所有 DNA 样品(n = 128)进行了量化和分析。DNA数量从0到40纳克不等,离群值为150纳克,不同的回收方法和取样位置,以及是否有一个或两个穿着者穿过连体衣,都没有发现明显的差异。然而,一名志愿者的连体衣上的DNA沉积量一直明显高于其他两名志愿者,这证实了 "脱落者身份 "对穿衣时DNA沉积的影响。当一名穿着者经常穿着连体衣时,两个月中所有穿着者的大部分样本(72.7%-83.3%)都是由穿着者的主要等位基因和非穿着者的次要等位基因组成的。当第二位穿着者再穿连体衣时,在每对穿着者使用的回收方法、取样地点和两个重复实验中,所获得的等位基因谱组成基本一致。不过,不同配对佩戴者的轮廓组成也不尽相同。总体而言,60%的特征描述以正常穿戴者为主要特征,30%的特征描述以第二位穿戴者为主要特征。其余的图谱中,每个穿戴者的单一来源图谱和来自两个穿戴者的相同比例 DNA 的观察次数要少得多。在大多数样本中还观察到了非穿着者的 DNA,无论是在第二位穿着者穿着连体衣之前还是之后。在一名志愿者的连体衣上,反复观察到了非穿着者的 DNA 图谱,这可能是他们的恋爱伴侣所为,即使在第二名穿着者穿着连体衣后,这种 DNA 在连体衣上依然存在。这项研究深入探讨了脱落者身份、多次穿戴者、不同的回收方法和取样地点对从真正定期穿戴的连帽衫中回收的DNA数量和DNA图谱组成的影响。研究结果还提供了一个初步数据集,可用于推断案件工作中的活动水平概率。
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引用次数: 0
Study of the fingerprints of a Spanish sample for the determination of the hand and finger 研究西班牙样本的指纹,以确定手和手指的特征
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.01.005
Noemí Rivaldería , Ariadna Moreno-Piedra , Ainhoa Álvarez , Esperanza Gutiérrez-Redomero

The individuality and permanence of fingerprints make of them a very useful feature in the identification of individuals. There are now automated computer programmes that allow a quick comparison between a fingermark and a database. However, in order to assess the strength of evidence in fingerprint identification, complementary information on the frequencies of the different morphological features of the dermopapillary ridges is required. This idea is used in this work as a starting point to evaluate the frequencies of the parameters used in the determination of the hand and finger in a large sample of 2600 fingerprints taken from 134 male and 127 female Spanish population. Based on these fingerprints, the frequencies of different categories of the following parameters were obtained: type of pattern, slope of the apex ridge, subtype of two-delta pattern, ridge tracing, major angle, major ridge count, bisector, rotation of the central ridge, assimilation to loops and slant. Moreover, the results have shown that these characters are useful for the determination of the hand in whorls (two-delta pattern) and loops (one-delta pattern), but not for the determination of the finger. The most useful and classificatory parameter when determining the hand of origin of a two-delta fingerprint is the slope of the apex ridge, and for the one-delta pattern, knowing the location of the delta allows the correct estimation of the hand of a fingerprint in more than 93% of the cases. The data presented in this paper are novel and can be used by latent print examiners to improve the statistical basis of their decisions in reaching conclusions.

指纹的个性化和持久性使其成为识别个人身份的一个非常有用的特征。现在已经有了自动计算机程序,可以快速对比指印和数据库。然而,为了评估指纹识别中证据的强度,还需要有关真皮乳头脊不同形态特征频率的补充信息。在这项工作中,我们以此为出发点,评估了从西班牙 134 名男性和 127 名女性的 2600 个指纹样本中确定手和手指所用参数的频率。根据这些指纹,得出了以下不同类别参数的频率:图案类型、顶脊斜度、双三角图案亚型、脊线追踪、主要角度、主要脊线数量、二等分、中央脊线旋转、环形同化和斜度。此外,研究结果表明,这些特征对于确定手的轮状(双三角纹)和环状(单三角纹)很有用,但对于确定手指却没有用。在确定双三角形指纹的原手时,最有用的分类参数是顶脊的斜率,而在单三角形指纹中,了解三角形的位置可以在 93% 以上的情况下正确估计指纹的原手。本文所提供的数据非常新颖,潜伏指纹检验员可以利用这些数据来改进他们在得出结论时所依据的统计基础。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of particle size, storage conditions, and chemical pretreatments on carbon and oxygen isotopic measurements of modern tooth enamel 粒度、储存条件和化学预处理对现代牙釉质碳和氧同位素测量的影响
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.01.004
Francesca Spencer , Kirsten Verostick , Alejandro Serna , Chris Stantis , Gabriel J. Bowen

Isotopic analysis of human tooth enamel can provide life history information useful in forensic identification. These applications depend on the availability of reference data documenting isotopic values for individuals with known life history and on the comparability of data from reference and case work samples. Here we build on previous methodological research, which has largely focused on paleontological and archaeological samples, and conduct experiments using enamel from modern human teeth targeting three sample preparation variables (sample particle size, storage conditions, and chemical pretreatments). Our results suggest that differences in particle size affect the efficiency of sample reactions during pretreatment and analysis, with coarse particles giving reduced loss of enamel carbonate during acid pretreatments but producing slightly higher oxygen isotope values than fine particles during analysis. Data for samples stored in dry and ambient environments following pretreatment were indistinguishable, suggesting no exchange of oxygen between samples and ambient water vapor. Finally, chemical pretreatments with a range of commonly used reactants and conditions showed a pervasive, moderate oxygen isotope shift associated with acetic acid treatment, which may be caused by exchange of enamel hydroxyl groups with reagents or rinse waters. Collectively, the results emphasize the importance of methodological standardization to improve comparability and reduce potential for bias in the forensic application of tooth enamel isotope data.

人类牙釉质的同位素分析可以提供有助于法医鉴定的生活史信息。这些应用取决于是否有参考数据记录已知生活史个体的同位素值,以及参考样本和案例样本数据的可比性。以前的方法学研究主要集中在古生物学和考古学样本上,我们在此基础上利用现代人牙齿的珐琅质进行实验,针对三个样本制备变量(样本粒度、储存条件和化学预处理)进行研究。我们的结果表明,颗粒大小的不同会影响样品在预处理和分析过程中的反应效率,粗颗粒在酸预处理过程中会减少珐琅质碳酸盐的损失,但在分析过程中产生的氧同位素值却略高于细颗粒。预处理后保存在干燥环境和环境中的样本数据没有区别,表明样本与环境水蒸气之间没有氧气交换。最后,在一系列常用反应物和条件下进行的化学预处理显示,与醋酸处理相关的氧同位素偏移普遍、适度,这可能是珐琅质羟基与试剂或冲洗水发生交换造成的。总之,这些结果强调了方法标准化的重要性,以提高可比性并减少牙釉质同位素数据在法医应用中可能出现的偏差。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-border forensic profiling of fraudulent identity and travel documents: A pilot project between France and Switzerland 伪造身份证件和旅行证件的跨境法证特征分析:法国和瑞士之间的试点项目
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.01.003
Solène Lugon Moulin , Emre Ertan , Didier Martin , Simon Baechler

The serial character of document fraud and its connection to organised crime groups who produce, sell and/or use fraudulent documents is a challenge for security and crime fighting. As a response, the added value of forensic intelligence is increasingly recognised. Using a forensic profiling method and a dedicated system deployed in Switzerland, document examiners can detect series (i.e., documents that share a common source) of fraudulent documents conveniently and efficiently. This detection can trigger or orientate investigations, supports crime intelligence efforts, and facilitates cross-jurisdictional cooperation. This study aims to assess the suitability of the forensic profiling system for international purpose and the efficiency of the method to detect cross-border series. The forensic profiling system has been deployed in France in the framework of a cross-border pilot project conducted by the School of Criminal Justice from the University of Lausanne and the French National Police (Division Nationale de Lutte contre la Fraude Documentaire et à l'Identité) over the period July 2019–May 2020. Data from the Swiss and French forensic profiling systems were compared to each other to detect cross-border series. The study sought to create operating conditions as close as possible to the real-life conditions of the profiling systems. The results are extremely positive both quantitatively and qualitatively. They demonstrate the benefit of setting up a systematic exchange of forensic data issued from profiling systems for fraudulent identity documents between France and Switzerland, let alone between any other countries. The results open up a very promising prospect for a sustained operational implementation by the police services of both countries and the extension of the exchanges internationally.

证件欺诈的连续性及其与制作、销售和/或使用欺诈性证件的有组织犯罪团伙的联系是安全和打击犯罪方面的一项挑战。作为应对措施,法证情报的附加值日益得到认可。利用在瑞士部署的法证剖析方法和专用系统,文件检验人员可以方便、高效地检测出欺诈性文件的系列(即具有共同来源的文件)。这种检测可以触发或引导调查,支持犯罪情报工作,并促进跨司法管辖区的合作。本研究旨在评估法证特征分析系统是否适用于国际目的,以及该方法检测跨境系列的效率。法证特征分析系统已在法国的一个跨境试点项目框架内部署,该项目由 XXX(为匿名审查而节录)和 XXX(为匿名审查而节录)在 2019 年 7 月至 2020 年 5 月期间进行。瑞士和法国法医特征分析系统的数据相互比较,以发现跨境系列。该研究试图创造尽可能接近特征分析系统实际情况的操作条件。研究结果在定量和定性方面都非常积极。这些结果表明,在法国和瑞士之间,更不用说在任何其他国家之间,系统地交换从伪造身份证件特征分析系统中获得的法证数据是有益的。这些结果为两国警察部门持续开展业务活动和在国际上扩大交流开辟了非常广阔的前景。
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引用次数: 0
Horizontal fire spread by foam-backed, polypropylene carpet 泡沫衬垫聚丙烯地毯的水平火势蔓延
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.01.002
M Jones

An eight year old boy was badly injured by a fire in his bedroom in May 2005. He spent his ninth birthday in intensive care and died a month later. This case study discusses a missing link into the pattern of fire development which made it difficult to identify the point of ignition. An absence of burning to the floor and isolated areas of burning seemed incongruous with the general pattern of fire development. Several fire investigation texts suggest that carpet cannot spread fire by itself; those texts that do mention the possibility, do not describe the mechanism in detail, nor what evidence an investigator might expect to see after the fire.

Experimentation with samples of carpet gave good insight into the mechanism and its effects, thereby providing the missing link by which to connect the areas of burning and identify the point of origin. If elements of the mechanism described in this paper are known, a reader could discern enough from the many papers available to support a working hypothesis but as yet, there is no single paper that describes the phenomenon mechanistically from start to finish, especially to those who have not encountered elements of it before; hence, this paper presents some novel findings.

The test involved polypropylene fibre carpets with integral polyurethane foam underlay, a very common type of carpet owing to its low cost and high durability. This is, therefore, an important mechanism of fire spread for fire investigators to be aware of and to understand. As this is a case study, rather than a research paper, the matters are dealt with empirically so the author cautions that when considering this mechanism in a new matter, the investigator should make their own tests of its validity.

2005 年 5 月,一名八岁男孩因卧室失火而严重受伤。他在重症监护室度过了九岁生日,一个月后死亡。本案例研究讨论了火灾发展模式中的一个缺失环节,该环节导致难以确定起火点。地板上没有燃烧痕迹和孤立的燃烧区域似乎与火灾的总体发展模式不符。一些火灾调查文章指出,地毯本身不能传播火势;那些提到这种可能性的文章并没有详细描述其机理,也没有说明调查人员在火灾发生后可能会看到哪些证据。如果读者知道本文所描述的机理要素,就可以从现有的许多论文中发现足够的信息来支持一个可行的假设,但到目前为止,还没有一篇论文从头到尾对这一现象进行机理描述,尤其是对那些以前没有接触过这一要素的人来说;因此,本文提出了一些新的发现。因此,这是火灾调查人员需要注意和了解的一种重要的火灾蔓延机制。由于这是一项案例研究,而不是一篇研究论文,因此,作者以经验为基础来处理问题,并告诫调查人员在考虑新问题中的这一机制时,应自行测试其有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Considerations on the application of a mutation model for Y-STR interpretation 将突变模型应用于 Y-STR 解释的考虑因素
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2024.01.001
Roberto Puch-Solis , Susan Pope , Gillian Tully

If Y-STR profiling is to be more effective in criminal casework, the methods used to evaluate evidential weight require improvement. Many forensic scientists assign an evidential weight by estimating the number of times a Y-STR profile obtained from a questioned sample has been observed in YHRD datasets. More sophisticated models have been suggested but not yet implemented into routine casework, e.g. Andersen & Balding [1]. Mutation is inherent to STR meiosis (or inheritance) and is encountered in practice. We evaluated a mutation model that can be incorporated into a method for assigning evidential weight to Y-STR profiles, an essential part of bringing any method into practice. Since an important part of implementation to casework is communication, the article is written in an accessible format for practitioners as well as statisticians.

The mutation component within the MUTEA model by Willems et al. [2] incorporates the potential for multistep mutations and a tendency for alleles to revert towards a central length, reflecting observed mutation data, e.g. [3]. We have estimated the parameters in this model and in a simplified symmetric version of this model, using sequence data from father/son pairs [4] and deep-rooted pedigrees [5]. Both datasets contain multistep mutations, which may have an effect on models based on simulations [1].

We introduce Beta-Binomial and Beta-Geometric conjugate analyses for estimating rate and step parameters for the mutation models presented here, which require only summations and multiplications. We proved mathematically that the parameters can be estimated independently. We show the importance of reporting the variability of the parameters and not only a point estimate. The parameters can be easily incorporated into statistical models, and updated sequentially as more data becomes available. We recommend fuller publication of data to enable the development and evaluation of a wider range of mutation models.

要想使 Y-STR 图谱分析在刑事案件工作中更加有效,就必须改进用于评估证据权重的方法。许多法证科学家通过估算从可疑样本中获得的 Y-STR 图谱在 YHRD 数据集中出现的次数来确定证据权重。有人提出了更复杂的模型,但尚未在常规案件工作中实施,例如 Andersen & Balding [1]。变异是 STR 减数分裂(或遗传)的固有特性,在实际工作中也会遇到。我们对突变模型进行了评估,该模型可纳入为 Y-STR 图谱分配证据权重的方法中,这是将任何方法付诸实践的重要部分。Willems 等人[2]的 MUTEA 模型中的突变部分包含了多步突变的可能性和等位基因向中心长度回归的趋势,反映了观察到的突变数据,如[3]。我们利用父子配对[4]和深根血统[5]的序列数据估算了该模型和该模型简化对称版的参数。这两个数据集都包含多步突变,这可能会对基于模拟的模型产生影响[1]。我们引入了贝塔-二项式分析和贝塔-几何共轭分析来估算本文介绍的突变模型的速率和步长参数,这两种方法只需要求和和乘法。我们用数学方法证明了参数可以独立估算。我们证明了报告参数的可变性而不仅仅是点估计的重要性。这些参数可以很容易地纳入统计模型,并随着更多数据的获得而不断更新。我们建议更全面地公布数据,以便开发和评估更广泛的突变模型。
{"title":"Considerations on the application of a mutation model for Y-STR interpretation","authors":"Roberto Puch-Solis ,&nbsp;Susan Pope ,&nbsp;Gillian Tully","doi":"10.1016/j.scijus.2024.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scijus.2024.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>If Y-STR profiling is to be more effective in criminal casework, the methods used to evaluate evidential weight require improvement. Many forensic scientists assign an evidential weight by estimating the number of times a Y-STR profile obtained from a questioned sample has been observed in YHRD datasets. More sophisticated models have been suggested but not yet implemented into routine casework, e.g. Andersen &amp; Balding <span>[1]</span>. Mutation is inherent to STR meiosis (or inheritance) and is encountered in practice. We evaluated a mutation model that can be incorporated into a method for assigning evidential weight to Y-STR profiles, an essential part of bringing any method into practice. Since an important part of implementation to casework is communication, the article is written in an accessible format for practitioners as well as statisticians.</p><p>The mutation component within the MUTEA model by Willems et al. <span>[2]</span> incorporates the potential for multistep mutations and a tendency for alleles to revert towards a central length, reflecting observed mutation data, e.g. <span>[3]</span>. We have estimated the parameters in this model and in a simplified symmetric version of this model, using sequence data from father/son pairs <span>[4]</span> and deep-rooted pedigrees <span>[5]</span>. Both datasets contain multistep mutations, which may have an effect on models based on simulations <span>[1]</span>.</p><p>We introduce Beta-Binomial and Beta-Geometric conjugate analyses for estimating rate and step parameters for the mutation models presented here, which require only summations and multiplications. We proved mathematically that the parameters can be estimated independently. We show the importance of reporting the variability of the parameters and not only a point estimate. The parameters can be easily incorporated into statistical models, and updated sequentially as more data becomes available. We recommend fuller publication of data to enable the development and evaluation of a wider range of mutation models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49565,"journal":{"name":"Science & Justice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1355030624000017/pdfft?md5=4d03837a44b9d2eeb745e53783c7eab3&pid=1-s2.0-S1355030624000017-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139508888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Science & Justice
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