Pub Date : 2024-02-06DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923110018
O. Yu. Antokhina, P. N. Antokhin, O. S. Zorkal’tseva, Yu. V. Martynova, A. V. Gochakov, V. I. Mordvinov
Abstract
The changes in the response of air temperature to the variations in the instantaneous blocking frequency (IBF) ((mathrm{GHGS} > 0)) between the periods 1979–1999 and 2000–2020 are studied. Blocking patterns, which are the spatial distributions of the coefficients of correlation between the IBF and the 1000 hPa temperature field, are used as the main characteristic. The blocking frequency is calculated in ten longitudinal sectors in the eastern direction from the west of the North Atlantic region to the eastern borders of Siberia and the Pacific Ocean. It is found that blocking patterns moved northward over the Atlantic region (November, December, and February), the Ural region and Siberia (November, January, and February) in 2000–2020. In addition, they were characterized by more pronounced areas of negative correlations over Eurasia and North America as compared to 1979–1999. Along with the pronounced correlation pattern of the Atlantic region, the patterns of the Ural region and Western Siberia (U-WS) proved to be the most significant. It is assumed that the IBF variability over the U-WS sector is an important indicator of the development of the most significant blocking processes over Eurasia in terms of the temperature regime anomalies. The influence of U-WS blockings was the least noticeable in 2000–2020 for December and in 1979–1999 for January, when the response of the temperature field to the blocking changes was similar to the response of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
{"title":"The Autumn-winter Response of Air Temperature to the Blocking Frequency in the Atlantic-Eurasian Sector","authors":"O. Yu. Antokhina, P. N. Antokhin, O. S. Zorkal’tseva, Yu. V. Martynova, A. V. Gochakov, V. I. Mordvinov","doi":"10.3103/s1068373923110018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373923110018","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>The changes in the response of air temperature to the variations in the instantaneous blocking frequency (IBF) (<span>(mathrm{GHGS} > 0)</span>) between the periods 1979–1999 and 2000–2020 are studied. Blocking patterns, which are the spatial distributions of the coefficients of correlation between the IBF and the 1000 hPa temperature field, are used as the main characteristic. The blocking frequency is calculated in ten longitudinal sectors in the eastern direction from the west of the North Atlantic region to the eastern borders of Siberia and the Pacific Ocean. It is found that blocking patterns moved northward over the Atlantic region (November, December, and February), the Ural region and Siberia (November, January, and February) in 2000–2020. In addition, they were characterized by more pronounced areas of negative correlations over Eurasia and North America as compared to 1979–1999. Along with the pronounced correlation pattern of the Atlantic region, the patterns of the Ural region and Western Siberia (U-WS) proved to be the most significant. It is assumed that the IBF variability over the U-WS sector is an important indicator of the development of the most significant blocking processes over Eurasia in terms of the temperature regime anomalies. The influence of U-WS blockings was the least noticeable in 2000–2020 for December and in 1979–1999 for January, when the response of the temperature field to the blocking changes was similar to the response of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139755529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-06DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923110079
E. S. Nesterov, V. D. Zhupanov, A. V. Fedorenko
Abstract
Based on the CICE model, the characteristics of the ice cover in the Northern Caspian Sea were simulated during the extreme ice seasons of 2011/2012 (long and cold) and 2015/2016 (short and warm). The characteristics of these seasons (length, frost degree-days, sea ice extent, maximum ice thickness) are given. Composite anomalies of surface air pressure and air temperature were constructed for the Northern Caspian region. Based on the JRA-55 reanalysis data, the concentration and thickness of sea ice were calculated. A comparison of the simulation results with observational data showed that the main differences in ice conditions in these seasons are reproduced satisfactorily.
{"title":"Modeling the Northern Caspian Sea Ice Cover in Extreme Seasons","authors":"E. S. Nesterov, V. D. Zhupanov, A. V. Fedorenko","doi":"10.3103/s1068373923110079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373923110079","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>Based on the CICE model, the characteristics of the ice cover in the Northern Caspian Sea were simulated during the extreme ice seasons of 2011/2012 (long and cold) and 2015/2016 (short and warm). The characteristics of these seasons (length, frost degree-days, sea ice extent, maximum ice thickness) are given. Composite anomalies of surface air pressure and air temperature were constructed for the Northern Caspian region. Based on the JRA-55 reanalysis data, the concentration and thickness of sea ice were calculated. A comparison of the simulation results with observational data showed that the main differences in ice conditions in these seasons are reproduced satisfactorily.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139755525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-06DOI: 10.3103/s106837392311002x
K. A. Sumerova, P. N. Vargin, A. N. Lukyanov, V. M. Khan
Abstract
The peculiarities of the troposphere and stratosphere dynamic processes that accompanied cooling events (cold waves) with a duration of more than a week in the northwest of European Russia (on the example of St. Petersburg) and in its north and center (on the example of Moscow) in early and late December 2021, respectively, are analyzed using reanalysis data, station observations, and trajectory modeling. In both cases the daily temperatures dropped below −10°C, and cold waves were accompanied by the air mass transport from the northeast
{"title":"Analysis of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Circulation Conditions That Contributed to the Formation of Cold Waves in the Northwest and Center of European Russia in December 2021","authors":"K. A. Sumerova, P. N. Vargin, A. N. Lukyanov, V. M. Khan","doi":"10.3103/s106837392311002x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s106837392311002x","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>The peculiarities of the troposphere and stratosphere dynamic processes that accompanied cooling events (cold waves) with a duration of more than a week in the northwest of European Russia (on the example of St. Petersburg) and in its north and center (on the example of Moscow) in early and late December 2021, respectively, are analyzed using reanalysis data, station observations, and trajectory modeling. In both cases the daily temperatures dropped below −10°C, and cold waves were accompanied by the air mass transport from the northeast</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139755532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-06DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923110080
I. V. Gontovaya, E. V. Gavrilova, V. O. Tatarnikov, M. A. Ocheretnyi
Abstract
In recent years, much attention has been paid to climate change issues. Regional climate change can be manifested in the changes in the main climate-forming factors, including wind. Studying the climatic characteristics of wind over the Caspian Sea is considered the most important task, since wind affects the variability of currents, the formation of hydrological and hydrochemical processes, and the information about the wind regime is necessary for the operation of marine organizations, the specifics of which is the dependence of all stationary and mobile objects in the sea on hydrometeorological conditions. The paper presents the analysis of the frequency of wind directions and wind speeds for individual months, seasons, years, and different gradations of wind speed. For the climatic characteristics of wind speed for consecutive 30-year periods, the comparative analysis of changes in climatological normals is carried out, and wind characteristic deviations relative to the standard reference period are revealed.
{"title":"Long-term Changes in the Wind Regime in the Northwestern Caspian Sea","authors":"I. V. Gontovaya, E. V. Gavrilova, V. O. Tatarnikov, M. A. Ocheretnyi","doi":"10.3103/s1068373923110080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373923110080","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>In recent years, much attention has been paid to climate change issues. Regional climate change can be manifested in the changes in the main climate-forming factors, including wind. Studying the climatic characteristics of wind over the Caspian Sea is considered the most important task, since wind affects the variability of currents, the formation of hydrological and hydrochemical processes, and the information about the wind regime is necessary for the operation of marine organizations, the specifics of which is the dependence of all stationary and mobile objects in the sea on hydrometeorological conditions. The paper presents the analysis of the frequency of wind directions and wind speeds for individual months, seasons, years, and different gradations of wind speed. For the climatic characteristics of wind speed for consecutive 30-year periods, the comparative analysis of changes in climatological normals is carried out, and wind characteristic deviations relative to the standard reference period are revealed.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139755462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-06DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923110067
A. K. Ambrosimov
Abstract
Hydrophysical studies in 2004–2018 showed that the cyclonic gyre of the Middle Caspian Sea is not a year-round circulation. In the cold season, the current in the cyclonic gyre intensifies, while in the warm season, the circulation weakens and the directed current turns into a drift one, except for the western part, where the water is transferred from the Middle Caspian to the southern part of the sea due to the difference in the levels of the basins. It is shown that the current in the cyclonic circulation follows the contour above the slope of the Derbent Basin in the entire layer from the surface to the bottom. The seasonal boundaries of the annual intensification and weakening of the cyclonic circulation are revealed.
{"title":"Intraannual Variability of the Cyclonic Circulation of Water in the Middle Caspian Sea","authors":"A. K. Ambrosimov","doi":"10.3103/s1068373923110067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373923110067","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>Hydrophysical studies in 2004–2018 showed that the cyclonic gyre of the Middle Caspian Sea is not a year-round circulation. In the cold season, the current in the cyclonic gyre intensifies, while in the warm season, the circulation weakens and the directed current turns into a drift one, except for the western part, where the water is transferred from the Middle Caspian to the southern part of the sea due to the difference in the levels of the basins. It is shown that the current in the cyclonic circulation follows the contour above the slope of the Derbent Basin in the entire layer from the surface to the bottom. The seasonal boundaries of the annual intensification and weakening of the cyclonic circulation are revealed.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139755463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-06DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923110031
I. V. Borovko, V. S. Gradov, G. A. Platov, V. N. Krupchatnikov
Abstract
Atmospheric blocking is the most common cause of extreme weather conditions. In the present paper, model data are used to investigate the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation index and the characteristics of atmospheric blocking. The dependence of the duration and intensity of blocking on the index (or phase) of the principal mode during its initial period is estimated. A typical blocking episode is considered, and it is shown that increased values of integral regional enstrophy can be an indicator of the change in the dynamic regime.
{"title":"Numerical Study of the Arctic Oscillation Impact on the Atmospheric Blocking Characteristics","authors":"I. V. Borovko, V. S. Gradov, G. A. Platov, V. N. Krupchatnikov","doi":"10.3103/s1068373923110031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373923110031","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>Atmospheric blocking is the most common cause of extreme weather conditions. In the present paper, model data are used to investigate the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation index and the characteristics of atmospheric blocking. The dependence of the duration and intensity of blocking on the index (or phase) of the principal mode during its initial period is estimated. A typical blocking episode is considered, and it is shown that increased values of integral regional enstrophy can be an indicator of the change in the dynamic regime.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139755523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-06DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923110043
I. I. Mokhov
Abstract
The changes in the frequency of severe weather events and their seasonal features in Russian regions are analyzed using the data for 1998–2021. More than 2/5 of severe weather events are observed in summer, which is also characterized by the greatest increase in the frequency in the recent decades: by almost 1.5 times, with an increase of 1 K in the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature. The frequency of extreme events also significantly increases in spring, while the minimum relative increase was found for winter. Significant changes have been identified: in the recent years, there has been at least one severe weather event per day averagely and two to three such events per day in summer. Correlation of the detected trends (in particular, a more significant increase in the frequency of severe weather events in summer months) with the changes in the temperature stratification and moisture capacity of the atmosphere and the intensification of convective processes in the atmosphere under warming has been found. Against the background of the general increasing trend in the frequency of extreme weather events, some features associated with key modes of climate variability (these peculiarities are manifested, in particular, in the atmospheric blocking patterns) are noted in the recent decades.
{"title":"Seasonal Features of the Changes in the Frequency of Severe Weather Events in Russian Regions over the Past Decades","authors":"I. I. Mokhov","doi":"10.3103/s1068373923110043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373923110043","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>The changes in the frequency of severe weather events and their seasonal features in Russian regions are analyzed using the data for 1998–2021. More than 2/5 of severe weather events are observed in summer, which is also characterized by the greatest increase in the frequency in the recent decades: by almost 1.5 times, with an increase of 1 K in the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature. The frequency of extreme events also significantly increases in spring, while the minimum relative increase was found for winter. Significant changes have been identified: in the recent years, there has been at least one severe weather event per day averagely and two to three such events per day in summer. Correlation of the detected trends (in particular, a more significant increase in the frequency of severe weather events in summer months) with the changes in the temperature stratification and moisture capacity of the atmosphere and the intensification of convective processes in the atmosphere under warming has been found. Against the background of the general increasing trend in the frequency of extreme weather events, some features associated with key modes of climate variability (these peculiarities are manifested, in particular, in the atmospheric blocking patterns) are noted in the recent decades.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139755528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-10DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923100114
D. A. Kozhevnikov, I. E. Novikov
Abstract
The influence of meteorological conditions and the initial energy of gamma quanta on the results of the aerial radiation reconnaissance of a radioactively contaminated area is considered. The statistical distribution of atmospheric pressure, air temperature, and air moisture content is analyzed. Based on the results of mathematical simulations, the values of the coefficients inversely proportional to a decrease in the gamma radiation absorbed dose rate caused by the air layer between a flight level and an analyzed point on the ground were calculated for the aviation survey of a radioactively contaminated area with an initial energy of gamma quanta ranging from 50 to 3000 keV and an air density ranging from 0.9 to 1.7 kg/m3. It is shown that it is necessary to take into account the meteorological parameters and the energy composition of gamma radiation when performing an aerial radiation survey of an area.
{"title":"Aerial Radiation Reconnaissance with Unknown Isotopic Composition of Contamination and Changing Meteorological Parameters","authors":"D. A. Kozhevnikov, I. E. Novikov","doi":"10.3103/s1068373923100114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373923100114","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>The influence of meteorological conditions and the initial energy of gamma quanta on the results of the aerial radiation reconnaissance of a radioactively contaminated area is considered. The statistical distribution of atmospheric pressure, air temperature, and air moisture content is analyzed. Based on the results of mathematical simulations, the values of the coefficients inversely proportional to a decrease in the gamma radiation absorbed dose rate caused by the air layer between a flight level and an analyzed point on the ground were calculated for the aviation survey of a radioactively contaminated area with an initial energy of gamma quanta ranging from 50 to 3000 keV and an air density ranging from 0.9 to 1.7 kg/m<sup>3</sup>. It is shown that it is necessary to take into account the meteorological parameters and the energy composition of gamma radiation when performing an aerial radiation survey of an area.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139413132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-10DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923100047
E. I. Ormeli, S. I. Pryakhina, N. M. Tsetva, I. S. Tsetva, I. V. Milovanov
Abstract
The paper presents the results of studying the influence of modern agrometeorological conditions on the yield of different groups of grain crops in the municipal districts of the Saratov oblast. The climatic trends of the recent two decades are analyzed for five weather stations (Khvalynsk, Balashov, Saratov, Ershov, and Aleksandrov Gai). For the Saratov weather station, a longer period (1941–2022) is analyzed. There is an increase in the heat availability and aridity of the territory. The analysis of the dynamics of the crop yield distribution and variability has shown that the most favorable conditions of crop cultivation are formed in the Balashov municipal district. Operational forecast models of the maximum and minimum productivity of winter wheat are developed, which makes it possible to predict a yield with a monthly lead time.
{"title":"Influence of Agrometeorological Factors on the Productivity of Grain Crops in the Municipal Regions of the Saratov Oblast","authors":"E. I. Ormeli, S. I. Pryakhina, N. M. Tsetva, I. S. Tsetva, I. V. Milovanov","doi":"10.3103/s1068373923100047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373923100047","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>The paper presents the results of studying the influence of modern agrometeorological conditions on the yield of different groups of grain crops in the municipal districts of the Saratov oblast. The climatic trends of the recent two decades are analyzed for five weather stations (Khvalynsk, Balashov, Saratov, Ershov, and Aleksandrov Gai). For the Saratov weather station, a longer period (1941–2022) is analyzed. There is an increase in the heat availability and aridity of the territory. The analysis of the dynamics of the crop yield distribution and variability has shown that the most favorable conditions of crop cultivation are formed in the Balashov municipal district. Operational forecast models of the maximum and minimum productivity of winter wheat are developed, which makes it possible to predict a yield with a monthly lead time.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139413184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-10DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923100023
N. Yu. Dobrolyubov, S. M. Semenov, E. M. Volodin, A. Yu. Bogdanovich
Abstract
The binomial distribution is often used in modeling, including in applied climatology, when assessing the likelihood of adverse or dangerous climate-related impacts. The article outlines an algebraic algorithm for obtaining such estimates based on climate monitoring data or modeling data. Using only algebraic operations in calculations minimizes calculation time, which is important when performing detailed global assessments. As an example of such a calculation, the result of an assessment of the global climatic range of a dangerous insect pest of forest and garden trees and shrubs, the gypsy moth, is given.
{"title":"Algebraic Algorithm for Statistical Estimation of the Binomial Distribution Parameter and an Example of Its Application in a Global Geoinformation Task of Applied Climatology","authors":"N. Yu. Dobrolyubov, S. M. Semenov, E. M. Volodin, A. Yu. Bogdanovich","doi":"10.3103/s1068373923100023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373923100023","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>The binomial distribution is often used in modeling, including in applied climatology, when assessing the likelihood of adverse or dangerous climate-related impacts. The article outlines an algebraic algorithm for obtaining such estimates based on climate monitoring data or modeling data. Using only algebraic operations in calculations minimizes calculation time, which is important when performing detailed global assessments. As an example of such a calculation, the result of an assessment of the global climatic range of a dangerous insect pest of forest and garden trees and shrubs, the gypsy moth, is given.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139413514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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