Russian Meteorology and Hydrology最新文献

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Long-term Changes in the Characteristics of Growing Seasons in the Cis-Ural Region due to Climate Change 气候变化导致的顺乌拉尔地区生长季节特征的长期变化

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923100059

V. A. Shklyaev

Abstract

The peculiarities of the variations in the growing season characteristics in the Cis-Ural region over the 20th and early 21st centuries were studied. The information on average daily air temperature and precipitation at four weather stations was used. It was found that, against the background of a general increase in air temperature, there was a positive trend in the length of growing seasons due to the changes in the dates of spring warming and autumn cooling. Starting from 1936, three periods of changes in the growing season length were revealed, and the last one, which started in 1990, has been the longest. The sum of active temperatures, as well as total precipitation, insignificantly changed during the study period, which was confirmed by a small positive trend. The average daily temperature in growing seasons has almost not changed over 85 years. The comprehensive assessment of the weather conditions affecting the growth of grain crops was performed based on the analysis of the hydrothermal coefficient. The coefficient was used to estimate the frequency of droughts having different intensity. Some increase in the coefficient, as well as the positive trends in the amount of precipitation (especially in the Perm krai), indicate the improvement of the conditions for spring grain crop cultivation in this part of the Cis-Ural region.

摘要研究了 20 世纪和 21 世纪初西乌拉尔地区生长季节特征变化的特殊性。研究使用了四个气象站的日平均气温和降水量信息。研究发现，在气温普遍升高的背景下，由于春季升温和秋季降温日期的变化，生长季节的长度呈上升趋势。从 1936 年开始，出现了三个生长季长度变化的时期，其中 1990 年开始的最后一个时期是最长的。在研究期间，活动气温和总降水量的总和变化不大，并呈微小的正趋势。生长季节的日平均气温在 85 年间几乎没有变化。根据水热系数分析，对影响粮食作物生长的天气条件进行了综合评估。该系数用于估算不同强度干旱的频率。该系数的增加以及降水量（特别是在彼尔姆边疆区）的积极趋势表明，该地区的春季谷物种植条件有所改善。

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引用次数: 0

Balance Approach for Evaluating the Carbon Stock and the Components of Carbon Footprint on Croplands in Russian Regions 评估俄罗斯地区耕地碳储量和碳足迹组成部分的平衡法

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923100011

A. S. Strokov, A. A. Romanovskaya, V. Yu. Vertyankina, I. Yu. Ryabov

Abstract

The paper analyzes the problems of carbon stocks variation in the pool of cropland mineral soils at the regional scale of the Russian Federation. The carbon stock balance of cropland soils was evaluated by estimating carbon gains and losses, and then the components of the carbon footprint were measured as a ratio of soil organic carbon balance to crop production quantity in terms of grain equivalent (t C/t grain eq.). The estimates for the period 2011–2020 have revealed that there is generally a small net gain of carbon on cropland in Russia, mainly due to the intake of carbon from plant residues. Most of the steppe region of Russia suffers from net losses of carbon at levels from –0.15 t C/t grain eq. up to –0.69 t C/t grain eq. In other regions, such as the Central Chernozem and Black Sea Coast regions, net carbon gain is observed in the range of 0.1–0.3 t C/t grain eq. due to the intake of significant biomass of crop and root residues as a consequence of intensive crop production.

摘要本文分析了俄罗斯联邦区域范围内耕地矿质土壤碳储量的变化问题。通过估算碳损益对耕地土壤的碳储量平衡进行了评估，然后以土壤有机碳平衡与作物产量（吨碳/吨谷物当量）之比来衡量碳足迹的构成。对 2011-2020 年期间的估算表明，俄罗斯耕地的碳净增加量一般较小，这主要是由于从植物残留物中吸收了碳。在其他地区，如切尔诺泽姆中部地区和黑海沿岸地区，由于集约化作物生产带来的大量作物和根茎残留生物量，碳净增加量在 0.1-0.3 吨碳/吨谷物当量之间。

引用次数: 0

Modern Changes in the Agroclimatic Potential of the Central Chernozem Region 切尔诺泽姆中部地区农业气候潜力的现代变化

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923100035

L. M. Akimov, E. L. Akimov

Abstract

The agroclimatic indicators for the territory of the Central Chernozem region are analyzed. The features of their spatial and temporal distribution are investigated. The tendencies of the indicators of thermal and moistening regimes are studied. An assumption is made about the future development of the agroclimatic potential on the territory of the Central Chernozem region.

摘要分析了切尔诺泽姆中部地区的农业气候指标。研究了这些指标的空间和时间分布特征。研究了热量和湿度指标的变化趋势。对切尔诺泽姆中部地区农业气候潜力的未来发展做出了假设。

引用次数: 0

Agroclimatic Characteristics of Agricultural Land in the Siberian Federal District in Changing Climate 气候变化下西伯利亚联邦区农田的农业气候特征

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923100072

I. V. Kuzhevskaya, V. P. Gorbatenko, O. V. Nosyreva, M. A. Volkova, O. E. Nechepurenko, V. V. Chursin, N. N. Chered’ko

Abstract

The analysis of the agroclimatic resources of the Siberian Federal District in the warming climate has revealed statistically significant (most pronounced in the last two decades) increasing trends in the sum of active temperatures and the growing-season length due to the earlier (by 5–7 days) dates of the stable 5°C crossing in spring and the later ones (by 2–4 days) in autumn. In most of the territory, the changes in total precipitation are statistically insignificant, except for a few stations. The frequency of late and early frosts has not changed and remained within the climatological normal. The maximum growth of green biomass, which was estimated by the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values, is facilitated by an early beginning of the growing season and a rapid transition to the period of active vegetation. The influence of meteorological conditions on the growth is significant at the beginning of the growing season and is quickly leveled by mid-summer.

摘要在气候变暖的情况下，对西伯利亚联邦区农业气候资源的分析表明，由于春季稳定的 5°C 跨越日期提前（5-7 天）和秋季推迟（2-4 天），活动温度总和和生长季节长度呈显著增长趋势（最近二十年最为明显）。在大部分地区，除少数站点外，总降水量的变化在统计上并不显著。晚霜和早霜的频率没有变化，仍保持在气候正常值范围内。根据归一化植被指数（NDVI）值估算，绿色生物量的最大增长得益于生长季节的提前开始和植被活跃期的快速过渡。气象条件对植被生长的影响在生长季初期非常明显，到仲夏时迅速趋于平稳。

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引用次数: 0

Agroclimatic Assessment of the Crimea and Donbass Territories for the Rational Placement of Vineyards in Changing Climate: A Case Study for Sevastopol and Artemovsk 克里米亚和顿巴斯地区农业气候评估，以便在不断变化的气候中合理布局葡萄园：塞瓦斯托波尔和阿尔乔莫夫斯克案例研究

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923100060

E. V. Vyshkvarkova, E. N. Voskresenskaya

Abstract

Observed climate change leads to the variations in the phenology, physiology, and biochemistry of grape berries, to a shift in the distribution of the grape plant areas and, as a result, to a change in the specialization of associated regions. Using the agroclimatic indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the climate change impact on viticulture, a comprehensive assessment of the grape growth conditions, potential quality of wine, and the climate-related risks in the Crimea and Donbass (on the example of Sevastopol and Artemovsk) over two 30-year periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) has been carried out. The results have shown a significant change in climatic conditions: an increase in heat availability in both regions and a decrease in frost susceptibility in the south of Donbass.

摘要观测到的气候变化导致葡萄果实的物候学、生理学和生物化学发生变化，葡萄种植区的分布发生变化，从而导致相关地区的专业化发生变化。为全面评估气候变化对葡萄栽培的影响，利用农业气候指标对克里米亚和顿巴斯地区（以塞瓦斯托波尔和阿尔乔莫夫斯克为例）两个 30 年期间（1961-1990 年和 1991-2020 年）的葡萄生长条件、潜在的葡萄酒质量以及与气候相关的风险进行了全面评估。结果显示气候条件发生了重大变化：两个地区的热量供应增加，顿巴斯南部的霜冻易感性降低。

引用次数: 0

Changes in Hydrothermal Conditions in Southern Siberia in 1950–2020 and Their Relation to Large-scale Circulation Processes 1950-2020 年西伯利亚南部热液条件的变化及其与大尺度环流过程的关系

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923100096

N. N. Voropay, A. A. Ryazanova

Abstract

The paper presents the dynamics of the hydrothermal coefficients characterizing agroclimatic resources on the territory of Siberia within the coordinates of 50°–65° N, 60°–120° E during modern climate change. The intensity, frequency, and duration of adverse weather phenomena for agriculture (the atmospheric droughts and moisture excess conditions) are analyzed. The Ped’ drought index ((S)) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated from the data of 134 weather stations and the ERA5 reanalysis are used as an indicator. In Eastern Siberia and in the west of the analyzed territory, there is an increase in aridity (a trend is 0.2–0.5 per decade). Northern regions of Kazakhstan, the Sayan Mountains, and the West Siberian Plain were characterized by a relative stability of hydrothermal conditions in 1950–2020 (statistically significant changes are not revealed). A direct linear dependence of hydrothermal conditions on large-scale circulation processes have been not detected for most cases. The greatest number of statistically significant correlation coefficients has been obtained for the drought index (S) and the SCAND (Scandinavia teleconnection pattern) index.

摘要本文介绍了在现代气候变化期间，北纬 50°-65°、东经 60°-120°坐标范围内西伯利亚地区农业气候资源水热系数的动态特征。分析了不利于农业的天气现象（大气干旱和水分过剩条件）的强度、频率和持续时间。根据 134 个气象站的数据和ERA5 再分析计算得出的佩德干旱指数（Ped'drought index）和标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）被用作指标。在东西伯利亚和分析地区的西部，干旱程度有所上升（趋势为每十年 0.2-0.5）。1950-2020 年，哈萨克斯坦北部地区、萨彦山脉和西西伯利亚平原的水热条件相对稳定（在统计上未发现显著变化）。在大多数情况下，没有发现热液条件与大尺度环流过程有直接的线性关系。干旱指数（S）和斯堪的纳维亚遥联模式（SCAND）指数的相关系数在统计上最为显著。

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引用次数: 0

Using the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Algorithm for Baseflow Separation and Determining the Trends for the Yesilirmak River (North Turkey) 使用粒子群优化（PSO）算法分离基流并确定耶希尔河（土耳其北部）的变化趋势

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.3103/s1068373924010060

Abstract

Estimation of baseflow is a complex hydrographic task. Baseflow techniques and coefficients vary from basin to basin, stream to stream, and year to year. In this study, meta-heuristic optimization is used to automatically identify baseflow. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), a meta-heuristic optimization approach, is chosen. The constraint and cost functions were determined using the PSO algorithm, Lyne and Hollick techniques, and a computer application. Over the period 1980–2015, the data were collected at the Kale station in the Yesilirmak River basin to validate the study model. The results show that the hydrographs and baseflow dividing line were separated effectively. It has also been revealed that the PSO has a high speed as well as a high level of precision. In the research, in addition to the baseflow separation, the hydrograph, baseflow, and ratio of the baseflow to the streamflow at the station No. 1402 were assessed using the Mann–Kendall test and Innovative Trend Test (ITA), and as a result, their trends have been found. By the use of both of these methods, it has been shown that all parameters have an unfavorable trend. In addition, the research came to some other significant conclusions, such as the fact that the baseflow declines in tandem with the flow values and that the baseflow rates are low in years with high peak values of the hydrograph.

摘要基流估算是一项复杂的水文工作。基流技术和系数因流域、溪流和年份而异。本研究采用元启发式优化来自动识别基流。选择了粒子群优化（PSO）这种元启发式优化方法。利用 PSO 算法、Lyne 和 Hollick 技术以及计算机应用程序确定了约束函数和成本函数。收集了 1980-2015 年期间耶希尔河流域卡莱站的数据，以验证研究模型。结果表明，水文图和基流分界线得到了有效分离。此外，还发现 PSO 具有高速度和高精度的特点。在研究中，除了基流分离外，还使用 Mann-Kendall 检验和创新趋势检验（ITA）评估了第 1402 号站的水文图、基流和基流与河水流量的比值，结果发现了它们的趋势。这两种方法的使用表明，所有参数都有不利的趋势。此外，研究还得出了其他一些重要结论，如基流与流量值同步下降，以及在水文图峰值较高的年份基流率较低。

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引用次数: 0

Estimation of Groundwater Flow for the Central Eastern Sayan Rivers 中东部萨彦河地下水流量估算

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.3103/s1068373924010096

Abstract

The results of estimating the groundwater flow for the rivers of the Eastern Sayan, which includes 89 individual watersheds, are presented. Most of the river basins (left tributaries of the Angara River) are located in a fold-mountain area and are poorly covered by the data of the routine observations of river runoff. The groundwater flow of the rivers was determined by a complex hydrological and hydrogeological method of genetic hydrograph separation, taking into account a removal of a part of the flow for the aufeis formation. For unexplored rivers, the groundwater flow was determined by the method of transition coefficients for unit water discharges obtained during the hydrometric survey in the winter low-water period. In the fold-mountain area, the specific groundwater flow varies over a wide range and depends on the landscape and climatic conditions, as well as on the hydrogeological conditions of specific watersheds associated with the presence of permafrost and differences in tectonic activity in different parts of the study area.

摘要本文介绍了对东萨彦河（包括 89 个流域）地下水流量的估算结果。大部分流域（安加拉河左侧支流）位于褶皱山地区，河流径流常规观测数据覆盖率低。这些河流的地下水流是通过遗传水文图分离的复杂水文和水文地质方法确定的，其中考虑到了去除部分水流用于 aufeis 形成的情况。对于未勘探的河流，地下水流量是通过冬季枯水期水文测量中获得的单位水量过渡系数法确定的。在褶皱山区，地下水的具体流量变化范围很大，取决于地貌和气候条件，以及与永久冻土的存在和研究区不同地区构造活动的差异有关的特定流域的水文地质条件。

引用次数: 0

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Precipitation and Temperature: A Case Study on Krishna River Basin, India 气候变化对降水和气温的影响评估：印度克里希纳河流域案例研究

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.3103/s1068373924010084

Abstract

In this study, the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is employed for downscaling the precipitation (PREC), maximum temperature ( (T_{max}) ), and minimum temperature ( (T_{min}) ) over the Krishna River Basin (KRB). The Canadian Earth System Model, version 2 (CanESM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were considered as predictor variables. First, the SDSM was calibrated using the data for a 30-year period (1961–1990) and subsequently validated with the data for a 15-year period (1991–2005). Upon perceiving a satisfactory performance, the SDSM was then used for projecting the predictand variables (PREC, (T_{max}) , and (T_{min}) ) for the 21st century considering three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios viz. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The future period was divided into three 30-year time slices named epoch-1 (2011–2040), epoch-2 (2041–2070), and epoch-3 (2071–2100), respectively. The period 1976–2005 was considered as baseline period and all the future results were compared with this data. The results were analysed at various temporal scales, i.e., monthly, seasonal, and annual. The study has reveals that the KRB is going to become wetter during all the seasons. The results are discussed for the worst-case scenario, i.e., RCP8.5 epoch-3. The average annual maximum and minimum temperature is expected to increase. The extreme event analysis is also carried out considering the 90th and 95th percentile values. It is noticed that the extreme (90th and 95th percentiles) are going to increase. There are extreme events that go beyond extreme values. The outcome of this study can be used in flood modeling for the KRB and also for the modeling of future irrigation demands along with the planning of optimal irrigation in the KRB culturable area.

摘要本研究采用统计降尺度模式（SDSM）对克里希纳河流域（KRB）的降水量（PREC）、最高气温（T_{max}）和最低气温（T_{min}）进行降尺度。加拿大地球系统模式第 2 版（CanESM2）的大气环流模式（GCM）输出结果被视为预测变量。首先，利用 30 年（1961-1990 年）的数据对 SDSM 进行了校准，随后利用 15 年（1991-2005 年）的数据对其进行了验证。性能令人满意后，SDSM 被用于预测 21 世纪的预测变量（PREC、(T_{max}) 和(T_{min}) ），并考虑了三种代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景，即 RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5。未来时期被划分为三个 30 年的时间片，分别称为 epoch-1（2011-2040 年）、epoch-2（2041-2070 年）和 epoch-3（2071-2100 年）。1976-2005 年期间被视为基线期，所有未来结果都与这一数据进行比较。对结果进行了不同时间尺度的分析，即月度、季节和年度。研究结果表明，KRB 在所有季节都将变得更加潮湿。研究结果针对最坏情况，即 RCP8.5 epoch-3 进行了讨论。预计年平均最高气温和最低气温都将上升。此外，还考虑了第 90 和第 95 百分位值，对极端事件进行了分析。我们注意到，极端事件（第 90 和第 95 百分位数）将会增加。有些极端事件超出了极值。本研究的结果可用于 KRB 的洪水建模，也可用于未来灌溉需求建模以及 KRB 可养殖区的最佳灌溉规划。

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引用次数: 0

Heat and Moisture Ratio in Agricultural Regions of Southern Russia in Summer under the Conditions of Climate Change 气候变化条件下俄罗斯南部农业区夏季的热量和水分比

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.3103/s1068373923090066

T. B. Titkova, A. N. Zolotokrylin, M. A. Tarasova

Abstract

It is revealed that there was a significant increase in the Bowen ratio in the Volga, Southern, and North Caucasian federal districts in the second half of the 20th century–beginning of the 21st century. This indicates a strengthening of sensible heat flux and a reduction of latent heat flux in the heat and moisture balance. These changes are caused by a significant temperature rise, especially in the south of European Russia, with a regional decrease in precipitation. The Bowen ratio is inversely proportional to precipitation and NDVI and directly proportional to temperature. In the steppe zone represented by the Volga, Southern, and North Caucasian federal districts the long periods of predominance of the Bowen ratio anomalies of a certain sign can be distinguished for June and July: the positive ones in the 1950s and until the mid-1960s, the negative ones after that until the early 2000s, and the positive ones since the middle of the first decade of the 21st century. Since the second decade of the 21st century, the positive anomalies of the Bowen ratio have become more frequent in some years and have exceeded the standard deviation. An increase in the contribution of heat to the heat and moisture exchange balance led to a degradation of vegetation conditions in the Volga, Southern, and North Caucasus federal districts. In the south of the Siberian Federal District, the fluctuation of the Bowen ratio anomalies is less pronounced than in European Russia, which suggests some stability of heat and moisture supply in summer over the past 70 years.

摘要研究表明，在 20 世纪下半叶至 21 世纪初，伏尔加、南部和北高加索联邦地区的鲍温比显著增加。这表明在热量和水分平衡中，显热通量增加，潜热通量减少。造成这些变化的原因是气温显著升高，尤其是在俄罗斯欧洲南部，同时区域降水量减少。Bowen 比率与降水和净植被指数成反比，与温度成正比。在以伏尔加、南高加索和北高加索联邦区为代表的草原区，6 月和 7 月的鲍温比值异常以某种符号为主的时期很长：20 世纪 50 年代至 60 年代中期为正值，此后至 21 世纪初为负值，21 世纪第一个十年中期以来为正值。自 21 世纪第二个十年以来，某些年份的鲍温比值正异常变得更加频繁，并超过了标准偏差。热量对热量和水分交换平衡的贡献增加，导致伏尔加、南部和北高加索联邦区的植被状况恶化。在西伯利亚联邦区南部，鲍温比值异常的波动不如俄罗斯欧洲地区明显，这表明在过去 70 年中，夏季热量和水分供应具有一定的稳定性。

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