The overview of papers dealing with the analysis of current and future climate change on the territory of Russia and their impact on the crop productivity is presented. Using the reanalysis data for 1950–2020, trends in air temperature and precipitation are estimated for different regions of Russia. A correlation was found between changes in temperature and atmospheric circulation indices.
The transition to a new reference period of 1991–2020 requires updating the estimates of agroclimatic resources in agricultural regions. The paper summarizes the results of the annual monitoring of agroclimatic conditions over 1961–1990 and 1991–2020 obtained by both the statistical analysis and the Climate–Soil–Yield simulation system and provides their comparative evaluation. It has been noted that along with growing aridity of the most fertile areas of the steppe and forest-steppe zones, there is an almost universal growth of spring precipitation, which compensates to some extent the negative impact of high summer temperatures on the yield. A significant decrease in the climate-driven productivity of spring wheat from the period of 1961–1990 to the new reference period of 1991–2020 has been revealed for the main grain-producing regions. Estimates of productivity trends for major grain crops, spring and winter wheat, are given in connection with climate change and the development of agricultural technologies. Estimates of changes in the wintering indices and sown areas for winter wheat are also given.
Estimates of future changes in the characteristics of the air temperature regime in Northern Eurasia over a five-year time interval are presented. The estimates are based on the forecasts of the Earth climate model developed at Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The skill of the forecasts for the territory of Northern Eurasia is discussed using standard skill scores for long-range forecasts. Regions where surface air temperature anomalies are likely to exceed the threshold targets of the Paris Agreement are identified. The consequences of a possible change in the growing season and dates of the stable air temperature above 5°C for agriculture are analyzed. The presented estimates of possible changes in the air temperature characteristics in Northern Eurasia over a five-year interval provide a more objective pattern of expected climate change and can be useful to determine optimal solutions for the development of agricultural sector in the changing climate and to minimize possible negative consequences.
In the paper, the frequency and spatial distribution of atmospheric and hydrological droughts over the territory of Belarus in 1945–2020 is assessed. Aridity is evaluated using the standardized precipitation and streamflow indices (SPI and SSFI). Trends in monthly total precipitation are determined, the features of the streamflow formation during the open-channel period are revealed. The frequency of anticyclones that determines hydrometeorological conditions on the territory of Belarus is calculated. The statistically significant increase in the number of the days with anticyclonic weather over the country during the warm season is found. The increasing frequency of dry conditions in summer months against the background of a rise in the precipitation intensity is highlighted. A simultaneous increase in the frequency of very-low-flow periods on rivers and an increase in the height of warm rainfall floods in some river basins are revealed.
The spatial and temporal variability of the main climatic indicators on the territory of the Volga Federal District in the 20th–21st centuries is considered. A general increasing trend in air temperature is revealed, and a heterogeneous pattern of precipitation changes is shown. The temperature variations until the end of the 21st century are analyzed on the example of Kazan using 40 CMIP6 climate models for four anthropogenic scenarios. In the paper, there is an assessment of the dynamics of agroclimatic resources on the territory of the Volga Federal District: the duration of the growing season, the sum of positive temperatures, total precipitation, and photosynthetic radiation. A correlation has been found between the temperature fluctuations in the region and the atmospheric circulation indices (NAO, AO, SCAND, and EAWR). For the territory of Tatarstan, a degree of aridity and waterlogging is evaluated using the agroclimatic indices: the Budyko’s dryness index, the Selyaninov’s hydrothermal coefficient, the Sapozhnikova’s moisture index. It is shown that there is a tendency toward an increase in the duration of the growing season, its heat supply and aridity in the region in summer. A statistical estimation of the dependence of spring wheat yield on the agroclimatic indices on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan is given.
According to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), most extensive summer droughts in European Russia south of 55° N in 1950–2021 were observed during the extremely negative phases of the Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) and West Pacific (WP) atmospheric circulation patterns characterized by abnormal high atmospheric pressure and an increased frequency of the number of days with atmospheric blocking over European Russia. It is shown that the frequency of droughts in the study area in the years of the negative phases of both circulation indices and their extremes in the summer months as compared to other years was higher by five droughts per decade in the Volga and Central Chernozem regions and by three droughts per decade in the northwestern Caspian region. A statistically significant correlation was found between the EAWR in summer and the multidecadal variability of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic. It was revealed that the increase in the drought frequency in the study area in recent decades has been caused by the restructuring of atmospheric circulation in the Euro-Atlantic sector accompanying the transition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to a positive phase. An increase in the stability of the EAWR and WP atmospheric circulation patterns was observed, as well as a related significant increase in the frequency of extensive droughts in the study area in 2010–2021. They were accompanied by the weakening of zonal atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, the combination of the positive AMO phase and the effects of anthropogenic warming on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, including those associated with blocking events.
The spatial distribution of atmospheric precipitation in the basin of the transboundary Zeravshan River and the contribution of precipitation and glacial meltwater to the formation of the river runoff within the Republic of Tajikistan are considered. It has been found that the average integral change in the amount of precipitation in the Zeravshan River basin for the period of 1940–2020 was 20 mm/10 years. The maximum volume of the glacial meltwater in the Zeravshan River fell on the third quarter (June–August) and was equal to 3.11 km3 or 60% of the average annual river runoff, and 0.39, 0.70, and 0.96 km3 of the runoff was formed in the first, second, and fourth quarters, respectively.
Based on the synthesis of the radar and LS8000 lightning detection network data, as well as the cloud resolving modeling, the effect of glaciogenic seeding on the electrical activity of a hail-hazardous cloud, which developed in the North Caucasus on May 14, 2012 was investigated. It has been proved that the introduction of a reagent leads to an increase in the frequency of intracloud discharges and in the total current of negative cloud-to-ground discharges. An increase in the peak current of the cloud-to-ground discharges of both polarities occurs in 10–15 minutes after the seeding termination. Seeding significantly increases the frequency of lightning discharges both in a cloud and a subcloud layer. As a result of seeding, the charge structure of a cloud turns out to be inverted: there is not a positive but a negative charge in its upper part.
The results of satellite monitoring of the transatlantic transport of water vapor in the atmosphere from the western coast of Africa to the Gulf of Mexico are presented. Using the data of the DMSP, EOS Aqua, GCOM-W1 satellite microwave radiometer measurements, the zones with high concentrations of water vapor in the air over the tropical Atlantic are identified, and the dynamics of their movement towards the Gulf of Mexico in the periods preceding the initiation of hurricanes Bret (1999), Lorenzo (2007), Katia (2017) in the gulf is analyzed. The connection of the atmospheric water vapor transport over the tropical Atlantic to the cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico is discussed.
The author propose a new method for cloud modification that does not involve rockets and aircrafts. It is based on some works in the field of protecting agricultural crops from hail using the rocket technology, as well as the achievements in the cloud modification using ground-based generators in Brazil. The new method is founded on the experimental data and theoretical calculations of the behavior of ice-nucleating particles in case of their generation near the ground and at the height close to the level of free convection during air-mass and frontal precipitation-forming processes. It is proposed to introduce ice-nucleating particles to the level of convective flux formation so that then the particles enter the area of origin and growth of hail in a cloud cell on their own. In the rocket technology, the identification of this area is one of the major difficulties of radiolocation. The proposed technique provides the ice-nucleating particle delivery to the hail area without any use of radiolocation. The method also allows avoiding safety problems arising from launching rockets over densely populated areas.
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