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The implications of climate change for Veterinary Services. 气候变化对兽医服务的影响。
IF 0.6 4区 农林科学 Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.20506/rst.40.2.3234
C Stephen, C Soos

Climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is one of the most pressing issues facing society on a global scale. The growth of GHG emissions between 2000 and 2010 was higher than in each of the previous three decades, and each of the past four decades has been successively warmer than any preceding decades since 1850. Continued GHG emissions will cause further warming and changes in the climate system. Climate change affects livestock production in multiple ways, both directly and indirectly. Many of the impacts on the livestock sector result from increasing frequency and magnitude of weather and climate extremes such as droughts, flash floods, untimely rains, frost, hail and severe storms. This article describes some of the most vulnerable disaster communities in Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe and South America. It then describes the importance of meteorological information provided by national Meteorological and Hydrological Services to help Veterinary Services support sustainable management of livestock in vulnerable pastoral communities.

温室气体(GHG)排放增加导致的气候变化是全球社会面临的最紧迫问题之一。2000年至2010年期间温室气体排放量的增长高于此前30年的每一个十年,过去40年的每一个十年都比1850年以来的任何一个十年都要暖和。持续的温室气体排放将导致气候系统进一步变暖和变化。气候变化以多种方式直接和间接影响畜牧生产。对畜牧业的许多影响是由于干旱、山洪暴发、暴雨、霜冻、冰雹和严重风暴等极端天气和气候的频率和强度不断增加。本文描述了亚洲、非洲、澳大利亚、欧洲和南美洲一些最易受灾害影响的社区。然后,它描述了国家气象和水文部门提供的气象信息在帮助兽医部门支持脆弱牧民社区牲畜可持续管理方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 6
Current and future trade in livestock products. 畜产品的当前和未来贸易。
IF 0.6 4区 农林科学 Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.20506/rst.40.2.3232
D Enahoro, S Bahta, C Mensah, S Oloo, K M Rich
Rising per capita consumption, economic growth, and urbanisation, particularly in developing countries, have been driving an increased global demand for food. These changing socio-economic trends, which have greatly influenced changes in dietary patterns globally and, more specifically, have increased consumption of livestock products in developing countries, are expected to endure and to place new pressures on livestock-sector infrastructure and the delivery of veterinary services. This paper summarises current trade in meat and presents plausible projections for the future. It highlights the impact of animal disease on trade and considers the effect of ongoing disease outbreaks, particularly the outbreaks of African swine fever and COVID-19, on current and future trade dynamics. The authors analysed published statistics on the demand for, and international trade in, livestock products at national and regional levels and made projections of the same up to 2050, generated from an integrated model of the global agricultural and food system. The resulting analyses identified patterns of trade consistent with growing populations, increasing incomes and changing diets in developing countries. The analyses also pointed to slow expansion of livestock production, and the impacts of countries' disease status on livestock trade. For most of the livestock products analysed, economic model projections indicate increased consolidation of production and exports among a few countries. Marked increases in the trade in livestock products suggest a changing role for Veterinary Services in facilitating trade and extension in the years to come.
人均消费增长、经济增长和城市化,特别是在发展中国家,推动了全球粮食需求的增加。这些不断变化的社会经济趋势极大地影响了全球饮食模式的变化,更具体地说,增加了发展中国家牲畜产品的消费,预计这些趋势将持续下去,并对畜牧业基础设施和兽医服务的提供造成新的压力。本文总结了当前的肉类贸易,并对未来提出了合理的预测。它强调了动物疾病对贸易的影响,并考虑了正在发生的疾病疫情,特别是非洲猪瘟和COVID-19疫情对当前和未来贸易动态的影响。这组作者分析了已公布的国家和区域一级畜产品需求和国际贸易的统计数据,并根据全球农业和粮食系统的综合模型对到2050年的畜产品需求和国际贸易进行了预测。由此产生的分析确定了与发展中国家人口增长、收入增加和饮食变化相一致的贸易模式。分析还指出了畜牧生产扩张缓慢的问题,以及各国疾病状况对畜牧贸易的影响。对于所分析的大多数畜牧产品,经济模型预测表明,少数国家的生产和出口整合程度有所提高。畜产品贸易的显著增长表明,未来几年兽医服务部门在促进贸易和推广方面的作用将发生变化。
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引用次数: 3
The importance of animal welfare and Veterinary Services in a changing world. 动物福利和兽医服务在不断变化的世界中的重要性。
IF 0.6 4区 农林科学 Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.20506/rst.40.2.3238
R E Doyle, B Wieland, K Saville, D Grace, A J D Campbell

Animal welfare is an essential component of the future of sustainable agriculture and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. There is growing global recognition of the importance of animal welfare, which must always be considered as part of the decision-making around food and nutrition security. Veterinary Services, encompassing public and private veterinarians and para-veterinarians, are custodians of animal welfare and key players in future actions to improve it. The welfare of animals is everyone's responsibility, from the individual farmer and practitioner to policymakers at the national and intergovernmental level. In this paper, after providing background information about current animal welfare issues and identifying animal welfare risks, the authors make a number of recommendations for action at the institutional and individual level. They do so because while the former is essential to generate change at scale and effective resourcing, the latter can create immediate action at a local level and drive change from the ground up. Without coordinated action from Veterinary Services, opportunities to improve animal welfare, alongside human and environmental health and well-being, may very well be lost, and animal welfare may fail to improve or even be at risk of decline.

动物福利是可持续农业的未来和联合国可持续发展目标的重要组成部分。全球越来越认识到动物福利的重要性,必须始终将其作为食品和营养安全决策的一部分加以考虑。兽医服务,包括公立和私立兽医和准兽医,是动物福利的保管人,也是未来改善动物福利行动的关键参与者。动物福利是每个人的责任,从个体农民和从业者到国家和政府间层面的政策制定者。在本文中,作者在提供了当前动物福利问题的背景信息和识别动物福利风险之后,提出了一些在机构和个人层面采取行动的建议。它们这样做的原因是,虽然前者对于产生大规模变革和有效资源至关重要,但后者可以在地方一级立即采取行动,并从头开始推动变革。如果兽医服务部门不采取协调一致的行动,很可能失去改善动物福利以及人类和环境健康和福祉的机会,动物福利可能无法改善,甚至有下降的风险。
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引用次数: 7
Introduction - Veterinary Services in a changing world: climate change and other external factors. 导言 - 变化世界中的兽医服务:气候变化和其他外部因素。
IF 0.6 4区 农林科学 Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.20506/rst.40.2.3230
D Grace, H S Lee, J Smith
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引用次数: 0
Epidemic disease risks and implications for Veterinary Services. 流行病风险及其对兽医服务的影响。
IF 0.6 4区 农林科学 Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.20506/rst.40.2.3240
C C Jost, C Machalaba, W B Karesh, J J Mcdermott, D Beltran-Alcrudo, B Bett, D Tago, K Wongsathapornchai, L Plee, M S Dhingra, D U Pfeiffer

Growth in the livestock sector is associated with heightened risk for epidemic diseases. The increasing spillover of new diseases from wildlife is being driven by wide-scale anthropogenic changes allowing for more frequent and closer wildlife-human and wildlife-livestock contacts. An increasing number of epidemics in livestock are associated with rapid transition of livestock systems from extensive to intensive, and local to global movement of livestock and their products through value chain networks with weak biosecurity. Major livestock epidemics in the past two decades have had substantial economic impacts, and the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the devastating socio-economic consequences that spillovers can have when not identified and controlled early in the process of emergence. This highlights the importance of Veterinary Services to integrated, whole-of-society efforts to control infectious diseases in animals. Emphasis within Veterinary Services must be placed on prevention and preparedness. The authors suggest four areas for continued improvement in Veterinary Services to meet this challenge. These are a) continued development of staff capacity for risk assessment and value chain analysis, together with improved policies and communication, b) appropriate adaptation of approaches to prevention and control in resource-poor settings, c) improved multi-sectoral and transboundary cooperation, which enables the sharing of resources and expertise, and d) systematic approaches that enable Veterinary Services to influence decisionmaking for trade, markets, business, public health, and livelihood development at the national and regional levels.

畜牧部门的增长与流行病风险增加有关。由于大规模的人为变化使得野生动物与人类和野生动物与牲畜的接触更加频繁和密切,野生动物新疾病的外溢越来越多。牲畜流行病日益增多与畜牧系统从粗放型向集约型的迅速转变以及牲畜及其产品通过生物安全薄弱的价值链网络从地方向全球流动有关。过去二十年来的重大牲畜流行病对经济产生了重大影响,2019冠状病毒病大流行凸显了如果在出现过程中不及早发现和控制溢出效应可能造成的破坏性社会经济后果。这突出了兽医服务对控制动物传染病的综合、全社会努力的重要性。兽医服务部门必须把重点放在预防和准备上。为了应对这一挑战,作者建议继续改进兽医服务的四个领域。a)继续发展工作人员进行风险评估和价值链分析的能力,同时改进政策和沟通;b)在资源贫乏的情况下适当调整预防和控制方法;c)改进多部门和跨界合作,使之能够共享资源和专门知识;d)采用系统方法,使兽医处能够影响贸易、市场、商业、公共卫生的决策;以及国家和区域层面的民生发展。
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引用次数: 2
How can we realise the full potential of animal health systems for delivering development and health outcomes? 我们如何才能充分发挥动物卫生系统在实现发展和卫生成果方面的潜力?
IF 0.6 4区 农林科学 Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.20506/rst.40.2.3239
H Auty, E Swai, J Virhia, A Davis, W A De Glanville, T Kibona, F Lankester, G Shirima, S Cleaveland

Animal health services play an essential role in supporting livestock production, with the potential to address the challenges of hunger, poverty, health, social justice and environmental health as part of the path towards the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) defined in the United Nations, 2030 Agenda. However, the provision of animal health services remains chronically underfunded. Although the aspiration that ‘no one will be left behind' is core to the SDG agenda, animal health service provision still fails to meet the basic needs of many of the poorest livestock owners. This review draws largely on experience from Tanzania and highlights the obstacles to equitable provision of animal health services, as well as identifying opportunities for improvement. Delivery models that rely on owners paying for services, whether through the private sector or public?private partnerships, can be effective for diseases that are of clear economic importance to animal keepers, particularly in more market-orientated production systems, but are currently constrained by issues of access, affordability, availability and quality. Substantial challenges remain when attempting to control diseases that exert a major burden on animal or human health but are less well recognised, as well as in the delivery of veterinary public health or other public good interventions. Here, the authors propose solutions that focus on: improving awareness of the potential for animal health services to address the SDGs, particularly those concerning public and environmental health; linking this more explicitly with advocacy for increased investment; ensuring that the voices of stakeholders are heard, particularly those of the rural poor; and embracing a cross-cutting and expanded vision for animal health services to support more adaptive development of livestock systems.

动物卫生服务在支持畜牧业生产方面发挥着至关重要的作用,作为实现联合国《2030年议程》中确定的可持续发展目标的一部分,动物卫生服务有可能应对饥饿、贫困、健康、社会正义和环境卫生等挑战。然而,动物卫生服务的提供仍然长期资金不足。尽管“不让任何一个人掉队”的愿望是可持续发展目标议程的核心,但动物卫生服务的提供仍然无法满足许多最贫困畜牧主的基本需求。这次审查主要借鉴了坦桑尼亚的经验,突出了公平提供动物卫生服务的障碍,并确定了改进的机会。依靠业主为服务付费的交付模式,无论是通过私营部门还是公共部门?对于对动物饲养者具有明显经济重要性的疾病,特别是在更以市场为导向的生产系统中,私人伙伴关系可能有效,但目前受到获取、负担能力、可得性和质量问题的限制。在试图控制对动物或人类健康造成重大负担但未得到充分认识的疾病方面,以及在提供兽医公共卫生或其他公益干预措施方面,仍然存在重大挑战。在此,作者提出的解决方案侧重于:提高对动物卫生服务实现可持续发展目标潜力的认识,特别是那些涉及公共和环境卫生的目标;将这一点更明确地与倡导增加投资联系起来;确保听取利益攸关方的声音,特别是农村贫困人口的声音;采用跨领域和扩大的动物卫生服务愿景,以支持牲畜系统更具适应性的发展。
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引用次数: 2
Planetary boundaries and Veterinary Services. 地球边界和兽医服务。
IF 0.6 4区 农林科学 Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.20506/rst.40.2.3236
R G Alders, M V Chadag, N C Debnath, M Howden, F Meza, M A Schipp, E S Swai, K Wingett

National Veterinary Services (NVS) play a crucial role in animal health, production and welfare. They are also intimately involved with safeguarding global health security and the health of the planet. Climate change is just one of the nine planetary boundaries (PBs), i.e. Earth system processes, that can be used to monitor the vital signs of our living planet. In this paper, the authors identify the positive and negative impacts of humaninduced management of aquatic and terrestrial animals in relation to these PBs. In the context of NVS, the authors provide an overview of the real and potential impacts of NVS policies on Earth systems and offer suggestions as to how new sustainability paradigms may assist with reviewing and revising NVS mandates and facilitating stakeholder engagement. Opportunities are proposed for the World Organisation for Animal Health to contribute to the global debate on the role of aquatic and terrestrial animal agriculture and wildlife in sustainable development. In addition, the paper suggests that a wider debate is required in relation to recent significant increases in domestic animal populations and PBs. Intersectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration are required to achieve the transformation of the framework in which NVS operate. While such transformations cannot be driven by the veterinary profession alone, veterinarians have proven very effective operators in the One Health arena. By building on these intersectoral linkages, it will be possible for our profession and NVS to actively contribute to the crucial discussions and transformations required to pull Earth system metrics back within safe boundaries.

国家兽医服务机构在动物卫生、生产和福利方面发挥着至关重要的作用。它们还密切参与维护全球卫生安全和地球健康。气候变化只是九个行星边界(PBs)之一,即地球系统过程,可用于监测我们生命星球的生命迹象。在本文中,作者确定了与这些PBs相关的人为管理对水生和陆生动物的积极和消极影响。在NVS的背景下,作者概述了NVS政策对地球系统的实际和潜在影响,并就新的可持续性范式如何协助审查和修订NVS授权以及促进利益相关者参与提供了建议。建议世界动物卫生组织有机会促进关于水生和陆生动物农业和野生动物在可持续发展中的作用的全球辩论。此外,该论文建议,需要就最近家畜种群和PBs的显著增加进行更广泛的辩论。需要进行部门间和跨学科合作,以实现国家卫生系统运作框架的转变。虽然这种转变不能仅由兽医专业推动,但事实证明,兽医在“同一个健康”领域非常有效。通过建立这些跨部门联系,我们的专业人员和NVS将有可能积极参与将地球系统指标拉回到安全范围内所需的关键讨论和转变。
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引用次数: 4
Preface. 前言。
IF 0.6 4区 农林科学 Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.20506/rst.40.2.3229
M Eloit
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引用次数: 0
Diagnostic likelihood ratio - the next-generation of diagnostic test accuracy measurement. 诊断似然比-下一代诊断测试准确度测量。
IF 0.6 4区 农林科学 Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.20506/rst.40.1.3226
C G B Caraguel, A Colling

To select, interpret, and assess the fitness-for-purpose of diagnostic tests, we need to compare the likelihoods of test results being true vs. false across both infected and non-infected individuals. Diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and specificity (DSp) report the accuracy of classification in infected and non-infected individuals separately and do not compare these likelihoods directly. Positive and negative predictive values combine these likelihoods, but they also heavily depend on the prevalence in the tested populations and, therefore, cannot be generalised. We propose the adoption of the diagnostic likelihood ratio (LR), which balances the likelihoods of true vs. false results and is population independent. As a relative measure, LR ignores the absolute accuracy of tests, and two tests with different accuracy profiles may have the same LR. This can be easily mitigated by using listed complementary measures of accuracy, including DSe and DSp, or ancillary selection criteria. Overall, LR is a more relevant and universal measure of diagnostic test accuracy, which makes it the logical next-generation measure to adopt. We illustrate the applications and benefits of LR using three assays certified by the World Organisation for Animal Health as serological tests for bovine tuberculosis.

为了选择、解释和评估诊断测试的适用性,我们需要比较感染和未感染个体的测试结果为真和为假的可能性。诊断敏感性(DSe)和特异性(DSp)分别报告了感染和非感染个体分类的准确性,并没有直接比较这些可能性。阳性和阴性预测值结合了这些可能性,但它们也严重依赖于检测人群中的流行程度,因此不能推广。我们建议采用诊断似然比(LR),它平衡了真与假结果的可能性,并且与人口无关。作为一种相对度量,LR忽略了测试的绝对精度,具有不同精度曲线的两个测试可能具有相同的LR。这可以很容易地通过使用列出的准确性的补充措施,包括DSe和DSp,或辅助选择标准来减轻。总的来说,LR是诊断测试准确性的一种更相关和通用的测量方法,这使其成为合乎逻辑的下一代测量方法。我们用世界动物卫生组织认证的三种测定法作为牛结核病的血清学测试来说明LR的应用和好处。
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引用次数: 3
Bayesian latent class analysis when the reference test is imperfect. 参考检验不完善时的贝叶斯潜类分析。
IF 0.6 4区 农林科学 Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.20506/rst.40.1.3224
A Cheung, S Dufour, G Jones, P Kostoulas, M A Stevenson, N B Singanallur, S M Firestone

Latent class analysis (LCA) has allowed epidemiologists to overcome the practical constraints faced by traditional diagnostic test evaluation methods, which require both a gold standard diagnostic test and ample numbers of appropriate reference samples. Over the past four decades, LCA methods have expanded to allow epidemiologists to evaluate diagnostic tests and estimate true prevalence using imperfect tests over a variety of complex data structures and scenarios, including during the emergence of novel infectious diseases. The objective of this review is to provide an overview of recent developments in LCA methods, as well as a practical guide to applying Bayesian LCA (BLCA) to the evaluation of diagnostic tests. Before conducting a BLCA, the suitability of BLCA for the pathogen of interest, the availability of appropriate samples, the number of diagnostic tests, and the structure of the data should be carefully considered. While formulating the model, the model's structure and specification of informative priors will affect the likelihood that useful inferences can be drawn. With the growing need for advanced analytical methods to evaluate diagnostic tests for newly emerging diseases, LCA is a promising field of research for both the veterinary and medical disciplines.

潜在类分析(LCA)使流行病学家克服了传统诊断测试评估方法所面临的实际限制,传统诊断测试既需要金标准诊断测试,又需要大量适当的参考样本。在过去的四十年中,LCA方法已经扩展到允许流行病学家对各种复杂数据结构和情景(包括在新型传染病出现期间)使用不完善的测试来评估诊断测试和估计真实流行率。本综述的目的是概述LCA方法的最新发展,以及将贝叶斯LCA (BLCA)应用于诊断测试评估的实用指南。在进行BLCA之前,应仔细考虑BLCA对目标病原体的适用性、适当样本的可用性、诊断测试的数量和数据结构。在制定模型时,模型的结构和信息先验的规范将影响得出有用推断的可能性。随着越来越需要先进的分析方法来评估新出现疾病的诊断测试,LCA是兽医和医学学科的一个有前途的研究领域。
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引用次数: 29
期刊
Revue Scientifique et Technique-Office International Des Epizooties
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