Rangeland Ecology & Management最新文献_第10页

Influence of Overhead Vegetation and Economic impact on Nest Success of Ground-Nesting Birds in Chinese Grasslands: A Case Study From Inner Mongolia 中国草原上植被对地面筑巢鸟类筑巢成功率的影响及其经济效应——以内蒙古为例

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.013

Hongtao Liu

China’s semi-arid grasslands, particularly in Inner Mongolia, are undergoing rapid ecological changes due to overgrazing, agricultural expansion, and land degradation—threatening the reproductive success of native ground-nesting birds. This study investigates how overhead vegetation structure influences nest site selection and survival of the Mongolian Lark (Melanocorypha mongolica) and examines the broader economic implications of habitat degradation on avian reproductive success. Across 4 breeding seasons (2018–2022), 147 nests were monitored, revealing a 73% failure rate—predation being the primary cause. Using logistic regression and habitat modeling, results showed that denser overhead vegetation significantly improved daily nest survival rates, highlighting its protective role against aerial predators and microclimatic stress. Birds showed a clear preference for structurally complex, shrubby grasslands with tall clumps and high upper visual obstruction, while edges and perches had minimal influence on site selection. These findings underscore the ecological value of maintaining vegetation heterogeneity and suggest that preserving or restoring such features has cost-effective benefits for avian biodiversity. Economically, the conservation of structurally intact grasslands could reduce the need for costly species protection programs by enhancing natural nest survival. Therefore, habitat management strategies that promote tall, overhead vegetation in grasslands represent not only an ecological priority but also a sustainable investment in biodiversity conservation.

由于过度放牧、农业扩张和土地退化，中国半干旱草原，特别是内蒙古，正经历着快速的生态变化，威胁着本土地面筑巢鸟类的繁殖成功。本研究探讨了架空植被结构如何影响蒙古云雀（Melanocorypha mongolica）的巢址选择和生存，并探讨了栖息地退化对鸟类繁殖成功的更广泛的经济影响。在4个繁殖季节（2018-2022），对147个巢穴进行了监测，发现73%的失败率-捕食是主要原因。通过logistic回归和生境建模，结果表明，密集的架空植被显著提高了巢的日存活率，突出了其对空中捕食者和小气候胁迫的保护作用。鸟类对结构复杂、高丛、高视觉障碍的灌木林草地表现出明显的偏好，而边缘和栖息点对选址的影响最小。这些发现强调了维持植被异质性的生态价值，并表明保护或恢复这些特征对鸟类生物多样性具有经济效益。从经济上讲，保护结构完整的草原可以通过提高自然巢穴的存活率来减少对昂贵的物种保护计划的需求。因此，促进草原高架植被的生境管理策略不仅是生态优先事项，也是生物多样性保护的可持续投资。

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引用次数: 0

Distribution of Plant Functional Groups in Relation to Continuous Grazing and Distance to Water Sources for Livestock in the Arid Chaco, Argentina 阿根廷查科干旱地区畜禽连续放牧与水源距离的植物功能群分布

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.05.005

Juan Antonio Scaglia , Daniel German Flores , Raúl Tapia , Mariana Martinelli , María Gabriela Navea , Marcia Diaz Peluffo

In the Arid Chaco savannahs, the presence of permanent water sources for livestock affects the spatial patterns of grazing, generating a gradient of grazing intensity that affects the composition of plant communities and the functioning of the ecosystem. The characteristics of plant species give rise to species-specific responses to environmental stimuli. These characteristics can group species into different functional plant groups that determine the effect of various disturbances on the functioning of the ecosystem. In this context, our study proposes the hypothesis that continuous grazing associated with permanent water sources generates a cumulative livestock pressure that determines different ecological conditions for plant communities in different geomorphological units. Under this hypothesis, we make the following predictions: 1) The distribution of water sources directly and indirectly influences the spatial distribution of functional plant groups, and 2) Variation in the quality of forage resources is associated with the distribution of some functional plant groups. Five plant functional groups were defined: annual nonfodder herbaceous plants, perennial nonfodder herbaceous plants, fodder woody plants, fodder herbaceous plants, and nonfodder woody plants. The plant functional groups significantly affected were those related to the production of fodder herbaceous plants and nonfodder woody plants. The relationship between the contribution of the functional groups of plants and the forage quality of the plant communities in the geomorphological units studied shows that forage grasses have a positive relationship and nonforage woody plants have a negative relationship. At distances greater than 1 250 m in the alluvial plain and 1 900 m in the foothills, the growth of forage species increase significantly. This can serve as a reference for planning the distribution of water sources for livestock in semi-arid plains, such as the area studied.

在干旱的查科大草原，牲畜永久水源的存在影响了放牧的空间格局，产生了放牧强度的梯度，影响了植物群落的组成和生态系统的功能。植物物种的特性导致了物种对环境刺激的特异性反应。这些特征可以将物种划分为不同的功能植物群，这些功能植物群决定了各种干扰对生态系统功能的影响。在此背景下，我们的研究提出了一个假设，即与永久水源相关的连续放牧产生了累积的牲畜压力，这决定了不同地貌单元中植物群落的不同生态条件。在此假设下，我们做出以下预测：1)水源的分布直接或间接影响功能植物类群的空间分布；2)饲料资源质量的变化与某些功能植物类群的分布有关。定义了5个植物功能类群：一年生非饲料草本植物、多年生非饲料草本植物、饲料木本植物、饲料草本植物和非饲料木本植物。受影响显著的植物功能群是与饲料草本植物和非饲料木本植物生产相关的功能群。在研究的地貌单元中，植物功能群的贡献与植物群落的牧草质量之间的关系表明，牧草与植物群落的牧草质量呈正相关，而非牧草木本植物与植物群落的牧草质量呈负相关。在冲积平原1 250 m以上和丘陵1 900 m以上，牧草生长显著增加。研究结果可为本研究地区半干旱平原畜牧业水源分布规划提供参考。

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引用次数: 0

Assessment of Drought Impact on Rangelands Using Multi-Index Remote Sensing Approach 基于多指数遥感的草地干旱影响评价

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.018

Zhewen Zhao , Rana Waqar Aslam , Iram Naz , Zohaib Afzal , Anum Liaqut , Muhammad Azeem Liaquat , Hela Elmannai , Rana Muhammad Zulqarnain

This study evaluates drought impacts on rangeland ecosystems in during 2024 using multiple remote sensing indices and land use/land cover analysis. The research integrates vegetation-related indices (NDVI, VCI, VHI, ESI), water-related indices (NDWI, SMI, SPI, TCI), and drought-specific indices (PDSI, DSI, NDDI, LST) to assess drought severity across the region's limited rangeland resources. Land Use/Land Cover classification reveals that rangelands occupy only 1,319.3 km² (1%) of the total area, predominantly in western and southwestern regions where drought conditions are more severe. Rangelands exhibit poor vegetation health with low NDVI values (0.12–0.25) and below-normal vegetation conditions (VCI 25–45), particularly in western areas where VHI values fall below 30. Water-related indices show severe moisture deficits, with negative NDWI values (–0.35 to –0.45) and low soil moisture (SMI 0.07–0.11). Comprehensive drought indices confirm moderate to severe drought conditions, with PDSI values ranging from –40 to –80 and DSI values between –25 and –40. Correlation analysis reveals generally weak relationships among indices (coefficients between –0.25 and 0.25), supporting the value of a multi-index approach. Comparative analysis shows that rangelands experience greater drought stress than irrigated croplands but less extreme conditions than bare ground areas, with intermediate NDVI (0.18), NDWI (–0.39), and PDSI (–45.2) values. These findings provide critical information for developing targeted drought management policies and adaptive rangeland conservation strategies in arid regions. The multi-index approach provides a framework for comprehensive drought assessment in rangeland ecosystems.

利用多种遥感指标和土地利用/土地覆被分析，评价了2024年干旱对草地生态系统的影响。该研究综合了植被相关指数（NDVI、VCI、VHI、ESI）、水相关指数（NDWI、SMI、SPI、TCI）和干旱相关指数（PDSI、DSI、NDDI、LST），评估了该地区有限牧场资源的干旱严重程度。土地利用/土地覆盖分类显示，放牧地仅占总面积的1319.3 km²（1%），主要分布在干旱较为严重的西部和西南部地区。牧地植被健康状况较差，NDVI值较低（0.12-0.25），植被条件低于正常（VCI 25-45），特别是在VHI值低于30的西部地区。水分相关指数表现出严重的水分亏缺，NDWI为负（-0.35 ~ -0.45），土壤湿度低（SMI 0.07 ~ 0.11）。综合干旱指数显示，PDSI值介于-40 ~ -80之间，DSI值介于-25 ~ -40之间。相关分析揭示了指数之间的一般弱关系（系数在-0.25和0.25之间），支持多指数方法的价值。对比分析表明，放牧区干旱胁迫程度高于灌溉区，但极端条件低于裸地，NDVI（0.18）、NDWI（-0.39）和PDSI（-45.2）处于中等水平。这些发现为制定干旱地区有针对性的干旱管理政策和适应性牧地保护战略提供了重要信息。多指标方法为草地生态系统干旱综合评价提供了一个框架。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Well-Connected Core Areas Retain Ecological Integrity of Sagebrush Ecosystems Amidst Overall Declines From 2001–2021” [Rangeland Ecology & Management Volume 97, November 2024, Pages 41-50] “连接良好的核心区在2001-2021年总体下降中保持了山艾树生态系统的生态完整性”的勘误表[牧场生态与管理卷97,2024年11月，41-50页]

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.014

David M. Theobald , Alexander V. Kumar , Kevin Doherty , Katherine A. Zeller , Todd B. Cross

引用次数: 0

Mapping and Modeling Aboveground Biomass Dynamics in Savanna Grasslands Southern Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚南部稀树草原地上生物量动态的制图和建模

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.001

Yeneayehu Fenetahun , Wang Yongdong , You Yuan , Ogbue Chukwuka , Yahaya Ibrahim , Xu Xinwen

Understanding the dynamics of aboveground biomass in savanna grasslands is essential for effective land management and conservation, particularly in regions like Southern Ethiopia, where these ecosystems are widespread. This research introduces a prototype model that integrates field measurements and remote sensing data to monitor biomass dynamics more accurately. The model provides a strong framework for precisely tracking biomass fluctuations and comprehending the processes impacting these dynamics in savanna grasslands by combining both field and remote sensing data. The model demonstrated strong correlations between predicted and observed biomass: R² = 0.71 during the rainy season, R² = 0.63 during the dry season, and R² = 0.83 for annual averages. Consequently, our data show regions with high biomass productivity as well as those that are vulnerable to degradation and offer insightful information about the spatial patterns of biomass distribution. The findings present a reliable tool for monitoring aboveground biomass changes in savanna grasslands, supporting informed land management and conservation efforts. Additionally, the model's adaptability to similar ecosystems can enhance our understanding of global savanna dynamics and promote sustainable land management practices.

了解稀树草原地上生物量的动态对于有效的土地管理和保护至关重要，特别是在这些生态系统广泛分布的埃塞俄比亚南部地区。本研究介绍了一种结合野外测量和遥感数据的原型模型，以更准确地监测生物量动态。该模型通过结合野外和遥感数据，为精确跟踪热带稀树草原生物量波动和理解影响这些动态的过程提供了强有力的框架。模型表明，预测生物量与观测生物量具有较强的相关性：雨季R² = 0.71，旱季R² = 0.63，年平均值R² = 0.83。因此，我们的数据显示了具有高生物量生产力的区域以及那些容易退化的区域，并提供了关于生物量分布空间格局的深刻信息。这些发现为监测热带稀树草原地上生物量的变化提供了可靠的工具，为知情的土地管理和保护工作提供了支持。此外，该模型对类似生态系统的适应性可以增强我们对全球稀树草原动态的理解，并促进可持续的土地管理实践。

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引用次数: 0

Movements and Survival of Adult Mule Deer Bucks in a Wildlife Enterprise Trophy Ranching Context 野生动物事业奖杯牧场环境下成年骡鹿的运动和生存

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.05.004

Louis C. Bender , Mike Reardon , Allen Darrow , James Lucero

Ranch economics are increasingly dependent upon wildlife enterprises throughout the arid Southwestern USA and Mexico, and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) are perhaps the most economically important species in the region. Because significant investments by landowners are necessary for trophy management (i.e., high adult sex [buck:doe] ratio, high buck survival, and advanced [older] buck age structure), loss of bucks to adjacent properties and increased mortality on ranches (both a potential consequence of more intense competition among deer under trophy management) could represent significant disincentives to managers. Hence, we evaluated the movements and survival of adult bucks in a ranch context in northeastern New Mexico, USA, to evaluate these concerns. We found that both concerns were warranted, especially for small ranching enterprises. Despite small home ranges (16.0 km²) and core areas (4.4 km²) due to intensive management for quality deer habitat, deer spent ca. 40% of their time on adjacent properties regardless of season, and half of deer with >50% of their annual ranges on adjacent properties were harvested there. Similarly, low body condition postrut predisposed all age (year)-classes of bucks to nonharvest mortality, likely an unavoidable consequence of trophy management. The most important consideration with respect to off-ranch movements is ranch size; properties < 4× larger than adult buck home ranges in arid Southwestern environments should question if investment in trophy buck production is viable. For ranches lacking intensive deer habitat improvement programs, adult buck home ranges are likely > 20 km², suggesting a size of ≥ 80 km² for ranches to ensure that a significant proportion of adult bucks are full-time residents, and hence allow managers to realize returns from trophy management.

在干旱的美国西南部和墨西哥，牧场经济越来越依赖于野生动物企业，而骡鹿（Odocoileus hemionus）可能是该地区最重要的经济物种。由于土地所有者的大量投资对于战利品管理是必要的（例如，高成年性别[雄鹿：母鹿]比例，高雄鹿存活率和先进的[老年]雄鹿年龄结构），雄鹿在邻近财产中的损失和牧场死亡率的增加（两者都是在战利品管理下鹿之间更激烈竞争的潜在后果）可能会对管理者产生重大的不利影响。因此，我们在美国新墨西哥州东北部的一个牧场环境中评估了成年雄鹿的运动和生存，以评估这些问题。我们发现，这两种担忧都是有根据的，尤其是对小型牧场企业而言。尽管由于对优质鹿群栖息地的集约化管理，鹿群的活动范围（16.0平方公里）和核心区域（4.4平方公里）较小，但无论季节如何，鹿群在邻近的土地上花费了大约40%的时间，而在邻近的土地上，有一半的鹿群（年活动范围为50%）在那里收获。同样，发育后身体状况不佳的雄鹿易在未收获时死亡，这可能是战利品管理不可避免的后果。关于牧场外运动最重要的考虑因素是牧场规模；属性& lt;在干旱的西南环境中，比成年雄鹿的家庭范围大4倍，应该质疑投资于雄鹿生产是否可行。对于缺乏密集的鹿栖息地改善计划的牧场，成年雄鹿的家园范围可能是；20平方公里，建议≥80平方公里的牧场面积，以确保成年雄鹿的很大一部分是全职居民，从而使管理者从战利品管理中获得回报。

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引用次数: 0

heterogeneityR: An R Package for the Measurement of Rangeland Vegetation Structure From Ground-Based Digital Imagery 异质性R：基于地面数字影像的草地植被结构测量R包

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.008

Remy C. Sutherland, Nathan M. Moore, Alexander G. Barnes, Samuel D. Fuhlendorf

Measurement of vegetation structure is highly relevant to many rangeland management objectives, but the utility of individual methods for monitoring or research purposes can be constrained by temporal and financial cost, applicability, and associated error. Previous methodological advancements have reduced surveyor bias and field collection time using ground-based digital imagery. However, these techniques can present their own limitations including increased processing time, cost of specialized equipment or software, and incompatibility across ecosystems. Here we present heterogeneityR, a free software package developed within the open-source R environment, to address previous methodological constraints. The package provides an automated image analysis pipeline that uses a machine learning framework to rapidly calculate an assortment of vegetation metrics (including visual obstruction, height, fuel loading, and structural heterogeneity) from field collected imagery and is customizable to training datasets specific to a user’s site, vegetation characteristics, and objectives. We evaluated the efficacy of the package using data collected within tallgrass prairie pastures that are grazed and patch-burned on a three-year rotation to create a mosaic of patches that vary with time since fire. Visual obstruction estimates were correlated with standing biomass of overall vegetation (R² = 0.90) and individual fuel types (live fuel R² = 0.81, dead fuel R² = 0.70). Time since fire had a significant effect on all model outputs and multiple comparisons tests revealed differences between burn patches for most metrics, indicating the high degree of patch-scale variance within the system. Our results demonstrate the utility of heterogeneityR to efficiently assess field collected data relevant to objectives in livestock production, fuels management, and conservation.

植被结构的测量与许多牧场管理目标高度相关，但用于监测或研究目的的个别方法的效用可能受到时间和财务成本、适用性和相关误差的限制。以前的方法进步减少了测量师的偏差和使用地面数字图像的现场收集时间。然而，这些技术有其自身的局限性，包括增加处理时间、专用设备或软件的成本以及跨生态系统的不兼容性。在这里，我们介绍了heterogeneityR，一个在开源R环境中开发的自由软件包，以解决之前的方法限制。该软件包提供了一个自动图像分析管道，该管道使用机器学习框架从现场收集的图像中快速计算各种植被指标（包括视觉障碍、高度、燃料负载和结构异质性），并可定制特定于用户站点、植被特征和目标的训练数据集。我们使用在高草草原牧场收集的数据来评估该包装的功效，这些高草草原牧场每三年轮换一次放牧和斑块燃烧，以创建自火灾以来随时间变化的斑块马赛克。视觉障碍估计与整体植被的直立生物量（R2 = 0.90）和单个燃料类型（活燃料R2 = 0.81，死燃料R2 = 0.70）相关。火灾发生后的时间对所有模型输出都有显著影响，多次比较测试揭示了大多数指标在烧伤斑块之间的差异，表明系统内斑块尺度的高度差异。我们的研究结果证明了异质性r在有效评估与畜牧生产、燃料管理和保护目标相关的实地收集数据方面的效用。

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引用次数: 0

Risks and Rewards of Pre-emergent Herbicide (Indaziflam) to Defend Core Sagebrush-Steppe Ecosystems Under Suboptimal Precipitation 在次优降水条件下，预萌发除草剂（Indaziflam）保护核心山艾草-草原生态系统的风险与收益

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.006

Brynne E. Lazarus, Matthew J. Germino

Protection of intact habitat from the spread of invasive plants is a global priority, especially where invaders alter wildfire occurrence. Invasion of perennial sagebrush-steppe ecosystems by cheatgrass and other fire-promoting exotic annual grasses (EAGs) is one of the most notorious examples of this problem. Protection and expansion of the remaining intact “core” sagebrush areas are key management goals, and whether this can be accomplished by temporarily inhibiting annual plant populations with pre-emergent herbicides is a key question. We applied indaziflam in fall 2019 to replicate plots within two sagebrush-steppe sites in the Northern Great Basin, USA: 1) a relatively intact, uninvaded, unburned “core” site and 2) a partially invaded site that burned in the 2015 Soda Wildfire. Vegetation cover, density, and growth responses of native perennials were measured annually to 2024. We asked whether our treatments “defended” and “grew” core sagebrush areas. EAG cover remained <15% in indaziflam-treated plots while increasing to >30% in control plots by the fifth year after treatment at the unburned site but did not differ with treatment at the burned site. Native perennial grasses, forbs, and big sagebrush cover and growth did not differ with indaziflam treatment at either site. Moss cover was temporarily lower in indaziflam-treated plots at the unburned site, and cover of a native annual forb was significantly lower in indaziflam-treated plots throughout the study across both sites. Despite posttreatment drought and apparent patchiness in treatment implementation, our treatments “defended the core” by preventing crossing of the 20% EAG invasion threshold in the unburned site but not did not “grow the core.” Our results provide an example of a case in which proactive protection may be easier to accomplish than reactive restoration. Herbicide treatment effects may be sensitive to weather and application details. Implementation monitoring could help explain variability and improve success.

保护完整的栖息地免受入侵植物的传播是全球的优先事项，特别是在入侵者改变野火发生的地方。欺骗草和其他促火的外来一年生草（EAGs）对多年生山艾灌木-草原生态系统的入侵是这一问题最臭名昭著的例子之一。保护和扩大剩下的完整的“核心”山艾灌木区域是关键的管理目标，这是否可以通过临时抑制年度植物种群来实现，这是一个关键问题。我们于2019年秋季使用indaziflam在美国北部大盆地的两个山艾草草原遗址中复制了地块：1)一个相对完整、未被入侵、未被烧毁的“核心”遗址；2)一个在2015年苏打野火中被部分入侵的遗址。到2024年，每年测量本地多年生植物的植被覆盖度、密度和生长响应。我们询问我们的治疗方法是否“保护”和“生长”了山艾树的核心区域。在茚地夫兰处理地块，eeg覆盖率保持在15%，而在未烧伤地块处理后的第5年，对照地块的eeg覆盖率增加到30%，但与烧伤地块的处理没有差异。原生多年生草本植物、草本植物和大山艾的盖度和生长与茚地夫拉姆处理没有显著差异。在整个研究过程中，在未燃烧的地点，茚地夫兰处理过的地块上，苔藓的盖度暂时较低，在两个地点，茚地夫兰处理过的地块上，本地一年生草本植物的盖度显著较低。尽管处理后的干旱和治疗实施中明显的斑块，我们的处理通过防止在未燃烧部位越过20%的eeg入侵阈值来“保护核心”，但没有“生长核心”。我们的结果提供了一个案例的例子，其中主动保护可能比被动恢复更容易完成。除草剂的处理效果可能对天气和施用细节很敏感。实施监控可以帮助解释可变性并提高成功率。

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引用次数: 0

Machine Learning-Based Forest Fire Susceptibility Mapping Using Random Forest and CART Models 基于机器学习的随机森林和CART模型的森林火灾易感性映射

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.004

Riaz Sheriff , Mohammad Suhail Meer , Rana Waqar Aslam , Yahia Said

Forest fires critically threaten biodiversity and ecological stability, particularly in vulnerable regions in the dry and hot region. Despite the growing application of machine learning (ML) in fire susceptibility mapping, research gaps persist in biodiversity-rich regions and the integration of long-term climate data. This study addresses these gaps by developing forest fire susceptibility (FFS) maps using Random Forest (RF) and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models, integrated with environmental variables derived from Google Earth Engine (GEE). The objectives were to (1) analyze spatiotemporal fire patterns (2001–2024) using MODIS FIRMS data, (2) evaluate topographic, climatic, and vegetation variables, and (3) compare model performance for fire risk zoning. Fire occurrence data and 14 environmental predictors (e.g., elevation, NDVI, precipitation, LST) were analyzed. The Boruta algorithm identified elevation, SAVI, NDVI, and precipitation as key drivers. The RF model demonstrated superior accuracy (77.54%, AUC: 0.802) compared to CART (76.08%, AUC: 0.706), with spatial mapping revealing divergent risk patterns: RF classified 40.21% and 47.14% of the reserve as moderate and high-risk zones, whereas CART polarized 91% of the area into low (47.9%) and very high (43.32%) risk categories. The RF model’s nuanced classification underscores its robustness in capturing environmental interactions, making it ideal for targeted fire management. This study provides a scalable framework for integrating ML and remote sensing in fire risk assessment, aiding policymakers in prioritizing mitigation efforts in biodiversity hotspots. By addressing the gap in region-specific ML applications and emphasizing climate-inclusive variables, our findings advance ecological conservation strategies in fire-prone ecosystems.

森林火灾严重威胁着生物多样性和生态稳定，特别是在干旱和炎热地区的脆弱地区。尽管机器学习（ML）在火灾易感性制图中的应用越来越多，但在生物多样性丰富的地区和长期气候数据的整合方面，研究差距仍然存在。本研究利用随机森林（RF）和分类与回归树（CART）模型，结合谷歌Earth Engine （GEE）导出的环境变量，开发了森林火灾易感性（FFS）地图，解决了这些空白。目的是：(1)利用MODIS FIRMS数据分析2001-2024年的时空火灾模式；(2)评估地形、气候和植被变量；(3)比较火灾风险分区的模型性能。分析了火灾发生数据和14个环境预测因子（如海拔、NDVI、降水、地表温度）。Boruta算法将海拔、SAVI、NDVI和降水确定为关键驱动因素。RF模型的准确率（77.54%,AUC: 0.802）高于CART (76.08%, AUC: 0.706)，其空间映射显示出不同的风险模式：RF将保护区的40.21%和47.14%划分为中度和高风险区，而CART将91%的区域划分为低（47.9%）和极高（43.32%）风险区。RF模型的细微分类强调了其在捕获环境相互作用方面的鲁棒性，使其成为目标火灾管理的理想选择。本研究提供了一个可扩展的框架，用于将机器学习和遥感整合到火灾风险评估中，帮助决策者确定生物多样性热点地区减灾工作的优先次序。通过解决特定区域ML应用的差距并强调气候包容性变量，我们的研究结果推进了火灾易发生态系统的生态保护策略。

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引用次数: 0

Continuous Decrease in Grassland Quality in Cold-Season Pasture Over Three River Headwater Region 三江源地区寒季牧草草地质量持续下降

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.012

Yecheng Yuan , Baolin Li , Yan Liu , Xizhang Gao , Wei Liu , Ying Li , Rui Li

Alpine grasslands in the Three River Headwater (TRH) region have suffered serious degradation owing to global climate change and human activity. Fencing is a major countermeasure implemented in the TRH region by the Ecological Protection and Restoration Program (EPRP) launched by the Chinese government. Fencing from the EPRP was to guarantee prohibited grazing during the growing season and rotation grazing during the cold season in the cold-season pasture. However, fencing excluded grazing over the entire growing season in previous studies, which was quite different from the EPRP. Thus, the protective effect of fencing from the EPRP in the TRH region cannot be confirmed based on previous studies. This study presents trends in vegetative and reproductive branch heights, vegetation cover, and aboveground biomass from 2005 to 2017, using ordinary least squares regression based on field observation data from 39 fenced sites from the EPRP in the TRH region. The results indicated that vegetative branch height, reproductive branch height, and vegetation cover decreased significantly by 34.8%, 38.2%, and 5.4%, respectively, over the study period (P < 0.05). The biomass proportion of Gramineae and Cyperaceae decreased by 48.2% and 23.9%, respectively (P < 0.05), whereas those of poisonous weeds and edible forbs increased by 170.3% and 42.0% (P < 0.10), respectively. This indicated a decrease in grassland quality at the fenced sites from the EPRP. The decrease in grassland quality may have been mainly caused by severe livestock overloading during the cold season. A competitive edge from forbs and poisonous weeds under fencing in degraded alpine grasslands may have further exacerbated grassland degradation. These results suggest that fencing in cold-season pasture from the EPRP did not achieve the objective of restoring grasslands under severe livestock overloading in the TRH region over the study period. These findings provide a significant basis for improving ecological protection and restoration policies in the TRH region.

由于全球气候变化和人类活动的影响，三江源地区的高寒草地遭受了严重的退化。围栏是中国政府实施的生态保护与修复工程在青藏高原地区实施的一项重大对策。EPRP的围栏是为了保证生长季节的禁牧和寒冷季节的轮牧。然而，以往的研究中围栏排除了整个生长季节的放牧，这与EPRP有很大的不同。因此，根据以往的研究，围栏对TRH区EPRP的保护作用无法得到证实。利用2005 - 2017年TRH地区39个EPRP围栏样点的野外观测数据，利用普通最小二乘法分析了植被和生殖枝高、植被覆盖度和地上生物量的变化趋势。结果表明：研究期间，营养枝高、生殖枝高和植被盖度分别显著降低34.8%、38.2%和5.4% （P < 0.05）。禾本科和苏科的生物量比例分别下降了48.2%和23.9% (P < 0.05)，毒草和可食牧草的生物量比例分别增加了170.3%和42.0% （P < 0.10）。这表明EPRP对围栏样地草地质量的影响有所下降。草原质量下降的主要原因可能是寒季牲畜超载严重。在已退化的高寒草地上，篱下杂草和毒草的竞争优势可能进一步加剧了草地的退化。这些结果表明，在研究期间，青藏高原冷季牧场围篱并没有达到恢复草原的目的。这些发现为完善TRH地区的生态保护和恢复政策提供了重要依据。

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