Rangeland Ecology & Management最新文献_第10页

Machine Learning-Based Forest Fire Susceptibility Mapping Using Random Forest and CART Models 基于机器学习的随机森林和CART模型的森林火灾易感性映射

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.004

Riaz Sheriff , Mohammad Suhail Meer , Rana Waqar Aslam , Yahia Said

Forest fires critically threaten biodiversity and ecological stability, particularly in vulnerable regions in the dry and hot region. Despite the growing application of machine learning (ML) in fire susceptibility mapping, research gaps persist in biodiversity-rich regions and the integration of long-term climate data. This study addresses these gaps by developing forest fire susceptibility (FFS) maps using Random Forest (RF) and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models, integrated with environmental variables derived from Google Earth Engine (GEE). The objectives were to (1) analyze spatiotemporal fire patterns (2001–2024) using MODIS FIRMS data, (2) evaluate topographic, climatic, and vegetation variables, and (3) compare model performance for fire risk zoning. Fire occurrence data and 14 environmental predictors (e.g., elevation, NDVI, precipitation, LST) were analyzed. The Boruta algorithm identified elevation, SAVI, NDVI, and precipitation as key drivers. The RF model demonstrated superior accuracy (77.54%, AUC: 0.802) compared to CART (76.08%, AUC: 0.706), with spatial mapping revealing divergent risk patterns: RF classified 40.21% and 47.14% of the reserve as moderate and high-risk zones, whereas CART polarized 91% of the area into low (47.9%) and very high (43.32%) risk categories. The RF model’s nuanced classification underscores its robustness in capturing environmental interactions, making it ideal for targeted fire management. This study provides a scalable framework for integrating ML and remote sensing in fire risk assessment, aiding policymakers in prioritizing mitigation efforts in biodiversity hotspots. By addressing the gap in region-specific ML applications and emphasizing climate-inclusive variables, our findings advance ecological conservation strategies in fire-prone ecosystems.

森林火灾严重威胁着生物多样性和生态稳定，特别是在干旱和炎热地区的脆弱地区。尽管机器学习（ML）在火灾易感性制图中的应用越来越多，但在生物多样性丰富的地区和长期气候数据的整合方面，研究差距仍然存在。本研究利用随机森林（RF）和分类与回归树（CART）模型，结合谷歌Earth Engine （GEE）导出的环境变量，开发了森林火灾易感性（FFS）地图，解决了这些空白。目的是：(1)利用MODIS FIRMS数据分析2001-2024年的时空火灾模式；(2)评估地形、气候和植被变量；(3)比较火灾风险分区的模型性能。分析了火灾发生数据和14个环境预测因子（如海拔、NDVI、降水、地表温度）。Boruta算法将海拔、SAVI、NDVI和降水确定为关键驱动因素。RF模型的准确率（77.54%,AUC: 0.802）高于CART (76.08%, AUC: 0.706)，其空间映射显示出不同的风险模式：RF将保护区的40.21%和47.14%划分为中度和高风险区，而CART将91%的区域划分为低（47.9%）和极高（43.32%）风险区。RF模型的细微分类强调了其在捕获环境相互作用方面的鲁棒性，使其成为目标火灾管理的理想选择。本研究提供了一个可扩展的框架，用于将机器学习和遥感整合到火灾风险评估中，帮助决策者确定生物多样性热点地区减灾工作的优先次序。通过解决特定区域ML应用的差距并强调气候包容性变量，我们的研究结果推进了火灾易发生态系统的生态保护策略。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Spatiotemporal Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Change Detection and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in Desert Area” [Rangeland Ecology & Management Volume 101, July 2025, Pages 126-139] “荒漠地区土地利用、土地覆盖变化检测与归一化植被指数时空评价”的勘误表[牧地生态与管理第101卷，2025年7月，页126-139]

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.003

Imran Aziz Tunio , Sheeraz Ahmed Memon , Habibullah Abbasi , Abdul Ahad Abro , Love Kumar , Muhammad Abdullah Tunio , Abdul Rehman Tunio , Jaten Kumar

引用次数: 0

Exploring the Most Effective Form of Multimethod Rangeland Literacy Learning in Texas 探索德克萨斯州多方法牧场识字学习最有效的形式

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.011

Erika Sullivan , Sakina Dixon , Morgan L. Treadwell

Creating agents of change equipped with the knowledge of best management practices is crucial to the preservation of vulnerable grassland savannas facing woody plant encroachment. The goal of this study was to utilize a pre-post intervention design to determine the knowledge and attitude change associated with various outreach and education online, in-person, and hybrid approaches in adult and youth participants on rangeland literacy and woody plant management strategies, such as prescribed fire, multispecies grazing, and pyric herbivory. Key findings revealed that teaching methods that used web-based and blended learning modalities were most effective at improving knowledge and attitudes of participants. Additionally, we identified that 9th–12th age groups reaped the most benefits from fully web-based and blended learning approaches.

创建具有最佳管理实践知识的变革推动者对于保护面临木本植物侵蚀的脆弱草原至关重要。本研究的目的是利用干预前和干预后的设计来确定成人和青年参与者在牧场文化和木本植物管理策略（如规定火灾、多物种放牧和pyric草食）方面的知识和态度变化，这些知识和态度变化与各种在线、面对面和混合方法的外展和教育有关。主要研究结果显示，使用基于网络和混合学习模式的教学方法在提高参与者的知识和态度方面最有效。此外，我们发现9 - 12岁年龄组从完全基于网络和混合学习方法中获益最多。

引用次数: 0

heterogeneityR: An R Package for the Measurement of Rangeland Vegetation Structure From Ground-Based Digital Imagery 异质性R：基于地面数字影像的草地植被结构测量R包

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.008

Remy C. Sutherland, Nathan M. Moore, Alexander G. Barnes, Samuel D. Fuhlendorf

Measurement of vegetation structure is highly relevant to many rangeland management objectives, but the utility of individual methods for monitoring or research purposes can be constrained by temporal and financial cost, applicability, and associated error. Previous methodological advancements have reduced surveyor bias and field collection time using ground-based digital imagery. However, these techniques can present their own limitations including increased processing time, cost of specialized equipment or software, and incompatibility across ecosystems. Here we present heterogeneityR, a free software package developed within the open-source R environment, to address previous methodological constraints. The package provides an automated image analysis pipeline that uses a machine learning framework to rapidly calculate an assortment of vegetation metrics (including visual obstruction, height, fuel loading, and structural heterogeneity) from field collected imagery and is customizable to training datasets specific to a user’s site, vegetation characteristics, and objectives. We evaluated the efficacy of the package using data collected within tallgrass prairie pastures that are grazed and patch-burned on a three-year rotation to create a mosaic of patches that vary with time since fire. Visual obstruction estimates were correlated with standing biomass of overall vegetation (R² = 0.90) and individual fuel types (live fuel R² = 0.81, dead fuel R² = 0.70). Time since fire had a significant effect on all model outputs and multiple comparisons tests revealed differences between burn patches for most metrics, indicating the high degree of patch-scale variance within the system. Our results demonstrate the utility of heterogeneityR to efficiently assess field collected data relevant to objectives in livestock production, fuels management, and conservation.

植被结构的测量与许多牧场管理目标高度相关，但用于监测或研究目的的个别方法的效用可能受到时间和财务成本、适用性和相关误差的限制。以前的方法进步减少了测量师的偏差和使用地面数字图像的现场收集时间。然而，这些技术有其自身的局限性，包括增加处理时间、专用设备或软件的成本以及跨生态系统的不兼容性。在这里，我们介绍了heterogeneityR，一个在开源R环境中开发的自由软件包，以解决之前的方法限制。该软件包提供了一个自动图像分析管道，该管道使用机器学习框架从现场收集的图像中快速计算各种植被指标（包括视觉障碍、高度、燃料负载和结构异质性），并可定制特定于用户站点、植被特征和目标的训练数据集。我们使用在高草草原牧场收集的数据来评估该包装的功效，这些高草草原牧场每三年轮换一次放牧和斑块燃烧，以创建自火灾以来随时间变化的斑块马赛克。视觉障碍估计与整体植被的直立生物量（R2 = 0.90）和单个燃料类型（活燃料R2 = 0.81，死燃料R2 = 0.70）相关。火灾发生后的时间对所有模型输出都有显著影响，多次比较测试揭示了大多数指标在烧伤斑块之间的差异，表明系统内斑块尺度的高度差异。我们的研究结果证明了异质性r在有效评估与畜牧生产、燃料管理和保护目标相关的实地收集数据方面的效用。

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引用次数: 0

Does Applying Indaziflam and Imazapic Together Improve Restoration of Annual Grass-invaded Rangelands? Indaziflam和Imazapic联合应用能促进一年生草侵草地的恢复吗？

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.005

Kirk W. Davies , Tim S. Prather , Lisa C. Jones , Christie H. Guetling

Invasive annual grasses are degrading millions of hectares of Intermountain West rangelands. Restoration of perennial vegetation in annual grass-invaded rangelands is a high priority. Of particular interest is controlling annual grasses in rangelands that still have co-occurring perennial vegetation. The goal of restoration actions in these communities is to control the annual grasses and promote co-occurring perennial vegetation. Indaziflam and imazapic, applied as pre-emergent herbicides, have both been used for this purpose. Indaziflam often has less than desired control in the first year but can control annual grasses for multiple years. In contrast, imazapic has effective control in the first year, but control is short-lived. Land managers have recently started tank-mixing these two herbicides to potentially alleviate their individual shortcomings and theoretically achieve more effective, long-term annual grass control. However, little is known about the effectiveness of aerially applying these herbicides together, particularly compared with just applying indaziflam, and the effects on co-occurring perennial vegetation. We investigated the effects of applying indaziflam individually and in combination with imazapic at three sites (two in Oregon and one in Washington). Applying indaziflam and imazapic in tandem provided better control of annual vegetation and promoted perennial vegetation, although site differences influenced treatment effects. Applying indaziflam individually controlled annual vegetation but did not generally generate a response from perennial vegetation. Tank-mixing indaziflam and imazapic improved first-year control compared with only applying indaziflam, but control was still better in the second year after treatment, suggesting that a greater rate of imazapic than used in this study may be needed to achieve better first-year control. The results of this study suggest that applying indaziflam and imazapic in tandem may be an effective strategy for controlling invasive annual grasses and promoting co-occurring perennial vegetation.

入侵的一年生草正在使西部山间牧场数百万公顷的土地退化。一年生草侵草地多年生植被的恢复是当务之急。特别令人感兴趣的是在仍有多年生植被共存的牧场上控制一年生草。这些群落的恢复行动的目标是控制一年生草，促进多年生植被共生。Indaziflam和imazapic，作为发芽前除草剂，都被用于此目的。Indaziflam通常在第一年的控制效果不如预期，但可以控制一年生草多年。相比之下，imazapic在第一年有有效的控制，但控制是短暂的。土地管理者最近开始将这两种除草剂混合在一起，以潜在地减轻它们各自的缺点，并在理论上实现更有效、长期的年度草控。然而，人们对这些除草剂一起空中施用的有效性知之甚少，特别是与只施用茚地夫拉姆相比，以及对共生多年生植被的影响。我们调查了在三个地点（两个在俄勒冈州，一个在华盛顿）单独应用吲唑flam和与imazapic联合应用的效果。茚地夫兰和伊马匹西联用对一年生植被有较好的控制作用，对多年生植被有促进作用，但场地差异会影响处理效果。施用茚地夫兰单独控制一年生植被，但对多年生植被没有普遍的响应。与仅使用吲达西弗拉姆相比，混合使用吲达西弗拉姆和伊马扎西泮可以改善第一年的控制，但治疗后第二年的控制仍然更好，这表明可能需要比本研究中使用更大的伊马扎西泮来实现更好的第一年控制。本研究结果表明，茚地夫兰和伊马匹克联用可能是控制一年生草入侵和促进多年生植被共生的有效策略。

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引用次数: 0

The Impact of Cooperatives on Livestock Production Efficiency in China 合作社对中国畜牧业生产效率的影响

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.06.002

Lijia Wang, Ziyun Wang, Zeng Tang, Haopeng Wu

The development of mechanisms to encourage herders' entry into cooperatives is considered as an important policy tool to increase production efficiency. This study examines whether cooperatives increase livestock production efficiency among herders in Xizang, China, by comparing technical efficiency (TE), cost efficiency (CE), and scale efficiency (SE) between cooperative members (CM) and non-members (NCM). Utilizing a two-stage DEA-Tobit model and survey data from 206 herders, the research evaluates the efficiency scores and identifies determinants of productivity. The results reveal that CM exhibit higher TE (0.705) and SE (0.297) but lower CE (0.250) compared to those of NCM (0.685, 0.206, and 0.323), respectively. CM efficiency is driven by the education of the head of household, the area of grassland, income from non-livestock and technical training, while NCM efficiency is shaped by age, Mandarin proficiency, family size and the quality of grassland under management. The findings underline the role of cooperatives in improving technical and scale efficiency, but also highlight the allocative inefficiencies in cost management. Policy implications include optimizing input allocation, strengthening technical support for cooperatives, promoting grassland transfer for scale economies, and prioritizing education and language training to bridge the efficiency gaps.

建立鼓励牧民加入合作社的机制被认为是提高生产效率的重要政策工具。本研究通过比较合作社成员（CM）和非成员（NCM）之间的技术效率（TE）、成本效率（CE）和规模效率（SE），考察了合作社是否提高了西藏省牧民的畜牧生产效率。利用两阶段DEA-Tobit模型和206名牧民的调查数据，研究评估了效率得分并确定了生产力的决定因素。结果表明，CM的TE（0.705）和SE（0.297）高于NCM(0.685、0.206和0.323)，CE（0.250）低于NCM。农牧合作效率受户主教育程度、草地面积、非畜牧业收入和技术培训等因素驱动，而农牧合作效率受年龄、普通话水平、家庭规模和经营草地质量等因素影响。调查结果强调了合作社在提高技术效率和规模效率方面的作用，但也强调了成本管理中分配效率低下的问题。政策影响包括优化投入配置，加强对合作社的技术支持，促进规模经济的草原转移，以及优先考虑教育和语言培训以缩小效率差距。

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引用次数: 0

Distribution of Plant Functional Groups in Relation to Continuous Grazing and Distance to Water Sources for Livestock in the Arid Chaco, Argentina 阿根廷查科干旱地区畜禽连续放牧与水源距离的植物功能群分布

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.05.005

Juan Antonio Scaglia , Daniel German Flores , Raúl Tapia , Mariana Martinelli , María Gabriela Navea , Marcia Diaz Peluffo

In the Arid Chaco savannahs, the presence of permanent water sources for livestock affects the spatial patterns of grazing, generating a gradient of grazing intensity that affects the composition of plant communities and the functioning of the ecosystem. The characteristics of plant species give rise to species-specific responses to environmental stimuli. These characteristics can group species into different functional plant groups that determine the effect of various disturbances on the functioning of the ecosystem. In this context, our study proposes the hypothesis that continuous grazing associated with permanent water sources generates a cumulative livestock pressure that determines different ecological conditions for plant communities in different geomorphological units. Under this hypothesis, we make the following predictions: 1) The distribution of water sources directly and indirectly influences the spatial distribution of functional plant groups, and 2) Variation in the quality of forage resources is associated with the distribution of some functional plant groups. Five plant functional groups were defined: annual nonfodder herbaceous plants, perennial nonfodder herbaceous plants, fodder woody plants, fodder herbaceous plants, and nonfodder woody plants. The plant functional groups significantly affected were those related to the production of fodder herbaceous plants and nonfodder woody plants. The relationship between the contribution of the functional groups of plants and the forage quality of the plant communities in the geomorphological units studied shows that forage grasses have a positive relationship and nonforage woody plants have a negative relationship. At distances greater than 1 250 m in the alluvial plain and 1 900 m in the foothills, the growth of forage species increase significantly. This can serve as a reference for planning the distribution of water sources for livestock in semi-arid plains, such as the area studied.

在干旱的查科大草原，牲畜永久水源的存在影响了放牧的空间格局，产生了放牧强度的梯度，影响了植物群落的组成和生态系统的功能。植物物种的特性导致了物种对环境刺激的特异性反应。这些特征可以将物种划分为不同的功能植物群，这些功能植物群决定了各种干扰对生态系统功能的影响。在此背景下，我们的研究提出了一个假设，即与永久水源相关的连续放牧产生了累积的牲畜压力，这决定了不同地貌单元中植物群落的不同生态条件。在此假设下，我们做出以下预测：1)水源的分布直接或间接影响功能植物类群的空间分布；2)饲料资源质量的变化与某些功能植物类群的分布有关。定义了5个植物功能类群：一年生非饲料草本植物、多年生非饲料草本植物、饲料木本植物、饲料草本植物和非饲料木本植物。受影响显著的植物功能群是与饲料草本植物和非饲料木本植物生产相关的功能群。在研究的地貌单元中，植物功能群的贡献与植物群落的牧草质量之间的关系表明，牧草与植物群落的牧草质量呈正相关，而非牧草木本植物与植物群落的牧草质量呈负相关。在冲积平原1 250 m以上和丘陵1 900 m以上，牧草生长显著增加。研究结果可为本研究地区半干旱平原畜牧业水源分布规划提供参考。

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引用次数: 0

Drivers of Land Use and Land Cover Change Around Mkomazi National Park and Its Conservation Implications 姆科马齐国家公园土地利用和土地覆盖变化的驱动因素及其保护意义

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.05.002

Odilia J. Jofrey, Flora F. Manyama, Filemon Elisante

Studies on land use and land cover change (LULCC) and their drivers are of great importance in promoting sustainable conservation of biodiversity. This study examined the extent, trends, and drivers of LULCC within and around Mkomazi National Park over a 30-yr period (1994–2023). Using remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and supervised image classification techniques, changes in five land cover classes—vegetation, water, bare land, agricultural land, and settlements—were analyzed. Household survey, direct observation, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews were also conducted in the study area to identify human-induced drivers of LULCC. Results indicated significant changes in land use and land cover within the study area. Between 1994 and 2023, there was overall decrease in dense vegetation and water coverage, whereas agricultural land, bare land and settlements increased by varying percentages. Additionally, it was found that agriculture (67%), settlement expansion (20%), and population growth (13%) emerged as the primary drivers of LULCC patterns. The study emphasizes the need for integrated land-use planning, community engagement, and enforcement of conservation regulations. Strategies such as sustainable land management, habitat restoration, and awareness campaigns are essential to mitigate adverse LULCC impacts and to ensure the long-term conservation of biodiversity in and around Mkomazi National Park.

土地利用和土地覆盖变化及其驱动因素的研究对促进生物多样性的可持续保护具有重要意义。本研究考察了Mkomazi国家公园及其周边地区30年来（1994-2023年）LULCC的范围、趋势和驱动因素。利用遥感、地理信息系统（GIS）和监督图像分类技术，分析了五种土地覆盖类型（植被、水、裸地、农业用地和聚落）的变化。在研究区通过入户调查、直接观察、焦点小组讨论和关键信息提供者访谈等方法来确定人为诱发的LULCC驱动因素。结果表明，研究区内土地利用和土地覆被发生了显著变化。1994年至2023年，密植植被和水覆盖总体减少，而农用地、裸地和居民点则有不同比例的增加。此外，农业（67%）、聚落扩张（20%）和人口增长（13%）成为LULCC模式的主要驱动因素。该研究强调了综合土地利用规划、社区参与和保护法规执行的必要性。可持续土地管理、栖息地恢复和宣传活动等战略对于减轻LULCC的不利影响以及确保姆科马齐国家公园及其周边生物多样性的长期保护至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Fire Influences Patch Selection by Cattle More Strongly than Previous Grazing Events 与以往放牧事件相比，火灾对牛的斑块选择影响更大

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.05.007

Esben L. Kjaer , Ryan F. Limb , Michael Hamel , Benjamin Geaumont , Jason P. Harmon , Torre J. Hovick , Kevin Sedivec

Understanding where animals graze and why they choose to graze there can be critical to rangeland and ecosystem management with misunderstandings of grazing distribution and behavior often being detrimental to management goals. Over time, grazing animals create grazing lawns that attract grazing animals due to ease of accessibility to more palatable regrowth. Similarly, fire can defoliate large areas of vegetation and promote new plant growth that is preferentially grazed by herbivores (i.e., pyric-herbivory in a patch-burn grazing framework). Grazer distribution in pyric-herbivory studies has been tracked through various metrics that produce valuable data. However, these data often lack precise information on what animals consume and do not account for differential plant production, limiting our ability to understand and apply pyric-herbivory to rangeland management through patch-burn grazing. Simultaneously monitoring plant biomass production and livestock grazing utilization would be the most comprehensive method to show site selection by grazing animals. To examine how previous grazing events influence grazing patterns, we collected data over 3 years on the utilization rate of patches by cattle in patch-burn grazing pastures and compared them to utilization rates in season-long grazed pastures. We found that regardless of management, grazing patterns were influenced by grazing in prior years. However, grazing in patch-burn pastures was more strongly influenced by fire than previous grazing events. Our results suggest that in the absence of additional disturbances, grazing patterns from previous years influence grazing patterns in the current year. However, disturbances that remove dead vegetation and promote regrowth, such as fire, override the influence of previous grazing patterns, modifying patch selection. Moving forward, these disturbances can be used to negate the effect of established grazing lawns and promote targeted grazing in areas with fresh regrowth, which benefits management goals.

了解动物在哪里吃草以及它们为什么选择在那里吃草对牧场和生态系统的管理至关重要，而对放牧分布和行为的误解往往不利于管理目标。随着时间的推移，放牧动物创造放牧草地，吸引放牧动物，因为更容易获得更美味的再生。同样，火可以使大面积的植被落叶，并促进草食动物优先放牧的新植物生长（即，在斑块燃烧放牧框架下的草食动物）。在草食研究中，食草动物的分布已经通过各种指标进行了跟踪，这些指标产生了有价值的数据。然而，这些数据往往缺乏关于动物消费什么的精确信息，也没有考虑到植物生产的差异，限制了我们理解和通过斑块燃烧放牧将热草食法应用于牧场管理的能力。同时监测植物生物量生产和牲畜放牧利用将是显示放牧动物选址的最全面的方法。为了研究以往的放牧事件对放牧模式的影响，我们收集了3年来斑烧放牧牧场牛对斑块的利用率数据，并将其与季节性放牧牧场的利用率进行了比较。我们发现，无论管理方式如何，放牧模式都受到前几年放牧的影响。然而，与以往放牧事件相比，草地放牧受火灾的影响更大。我们的研究结果表明，在没有额外干扰的情况下，前几年的放牧模式会影响今年的放牧模式。然而，去除死亡植被和促进再生的干扰，如火灾，覆盖了以前放牧模式的影响，改变了斑块的选择。展望未来，这些干扰可以用来抵消已建立的放牧草坪的影响，并促进在新生长的地区进行有针对性的放牧，这有利于管理目标的实现。

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引用次数: 0

Estimation of Plant Production in North-Central Rangelands of Iran: Emphasis on Response to Precipitation Thresholds 伊朗中北部牧场植物产量估算：重点关注对降水阈值的响应

IF 2.4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Rangeland Ecology & Management

Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.rama.2025.05.006

Hamed Joneidi Jafari , Khaled Osati , Bing Liu , Nahid Azizi , Pouyan Dehghan Rahimabadi

Total annual precipitation cannot adequately represent the effective precipitation necessary for plant growth and production. In this research, forage production in north-central Iran rangelands was modeled by analyzing the effective precipitation during 10 water years, from 2005–2006 to 2014–2015. The production of key species, including Artemisia sieberi, Ephedra intermedia, Zygophyllum eurypterum, Stipa barbata, Scariola orientalis, Anabasis setifera, and annual plants, was measured. The relationship between forage production and total precipitation amounts, total precipitation exceeding 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 mm, and temperature was quantified, and an optimal multivariate regression model was introduced to predict regional forage production for each species. Results revealed an average annual forage production of 57.71 kg · ha⁻¹. Notably, Z. eurypterum exhibited minimal production fluctuations, ranging from 16.1 to 18.4 kg · ha⁻¹, whereas annual species displayed a maximum coefficient of variation (79%). The most accurate model for estimating annual species forage production was based on April precipitation and April–May temperatures [Relative Root Mean Squared Error (RRMSE) = 0.19], which accounted for 98% of the variation (P value < 0.01). The results also showed that the most accurate linear model for estimating total forage production was based on March–June precipitation events exceeding 5 mm, with R = 0.92 in the calibration step and RRMSE = 0.07 in the validation step. The results can be used for estimating the annual forage production, determining grazing capacity, predicting future changes in forage production, and informing optimal rangeland management.

年总降水量不能充分代表植物生长和生产所需的有效降水。本研究通过分析2005-2006年至2014-2015年10个水年的有效降水，建立了伊朗中北部牧场牧草生产模型。测定了重点植物细叶蒿、中麻黄、大黄黄、刺针茅、东方丝虫草、石竹和一年生植物的产量。量化了牧草产量与总降水量、总降水量超过1、3、5、7、10 mm和温度之间的关系，并引入了最优多元回归模型来预测各物种的区域牧草产量。结果表明，平均年饲料产量为57.71 kg·ha−1。值得注意的是，大斑草的产量波动最小，在16.1 ~ 18.4 kg·ha−1之间，而一年生物种的变异系数最大（79%）。基于4月降水和4 - 5月气温估算年种草产量最准确的模型[相对均方根误差（RRMSE） = 0.19]，占变异量的98% (P值<；0.01)。结果还表明，基于3 - 6月5 mm以上降水事件估算牧草总产量的线性模型最准确，其校正步骤的R = 0.92，验证步骤的RRMSE = 0.07。研究结果可用于估算年牧草产量，确定放牧能力，预测未来牧草产量变化，为优化牧场管理提供依据。

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