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Seasonal fluctuations of age classes, with application to South Russia, 1896-1897 年龄阶层的季节波动,以1896-1897年南俄罗斯为例
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-04-19 DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2029074
N. Bonneuil, E. Fursa
ABSTRACT Seasonal variations in age class sizes involve those of births and those of mortality across ages. They affect censuses and, consequently, rates involving numbers by age. As their analytical expression becomes inextricable, a simulation of aging cohorts by months of age shows that mortality oscillations for human populations are not sufficient to prevent age classes from oscillating approximately like associated births, contrary to what previous literature suggests. The amplification converges after damping, and the level reached depends on the amplification of mortality oscillations relative to births between 0 and 6 months of age. The damping rate depends mainly on the amplification of the mortality of 0–5 months compared to births. The application to 1896 South Russian data shows that age class sizes vary during the year like the births of the associated cohorts and that the numbers counted at the census vary strongly according to the month of the census.
年龄班级规模的季节性变化包括各年龄段的出生人数和死亡率。它们影响人口普查,从而影响按年龄划分的人口比率。由于它们的分析表达变得不可分割,一项以年龄为单位的衰老队列模拟显示,人口死亡率的波动不足以阻止年龄类别的波动,就像相关的出生一样,这与之前的文献所表明的相反。衰减后的放大会收敛,所达到的水平取决于相对于0至6个月出生的死亡率波动的放大。阻尼率主要取决于0-5个月的死亡率与出生时相比的放大。对1896年南俄罗斯数据的应用表明,年龄班级的规模在一年中有所不同,就像相关队列的出生人数一样,人口普查中计算的人数根据人口普查的月份变化很大。
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引用次数: 0
Imputation for estimating the population mean in the presence of nonresponse, with application to fine particle density in Bangkok 在无反应的情况下估计群体平均值的推断,并应用于曼谷的细颗粒密度
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-01-19 DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1997466
Kanisa Chodjuntug, Nuanpan Lawson
ABSTRACT Air pollution in Bangkok, Thailand, is mainly due to fine particles emitted in exhaust gases. However, many data on fine particle concentrations are missing, a fact which may bias the statistics. Exponential-type imputation minimizing the mean square error allows for estimating the missing values of these concentrations and provides an estimate with smaller mean square error of the mean concentration levels. The bias and mean square error of the proposed estimator are calculated. Simulation shows that the relative efficiency is 5% higher up to 50 observations, 12% higher for 100 observations, and 25% higher for 200 observations. Application to the measurement of fine particle concentration in Bangkok yields a mean square error of 0.73 micrograms per cubic meter squared, for a mean level of 47.40 micrograms per cubic meter, while the mean square error by the best alternative estimator selected is 0.90 micrograms per cubic meter squared, for a mean level of 48.20 micrograms per cubic meter.
摘要泰国曼谷的空气污染主要是由废气中排放的细颗粒物造成的。然而,许多关于细颗粒浓度的数据缺失,这一事实可能会使统计数据产生偏差。最小化均方误差的指数型插补允许估计这些浓度的缺失值,并提供平均浓度水平的均方误差较小的估计值。计算了该估计器的偏差和均方误差。模拟表明,在50次观测中,相对效率提高了5%,在100次观测中提高了12%,在200次观测中增加了25%。应用于曼谷细颗粒物浓度的测量,平均水平为47.40微克/立方米,均方误差为0.73微克/立方米平方,而选择的最佳替代估算器的均方误差是0.90微克/立方米立方,平均水平是48.20微克/立方米。
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引用次数: 3
Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the inverse Gaussian distribution using maximum rank set sampling with unequal samples 利用不等样本最大秩集采样的逆高斯分布参数的最大似然估计
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-12-27 DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1996822
Shuo Wang, Wangxue Chen, Meng Chen, Ya Zhou
ABSTRACT Maximum ranked set sampling with unequal samples is a sampling procedure used to reduce the error of ranking of observations and increase the efficiency of statistical inference. It is used for maximum likelihood estimation of the location and shape parameters of the inverse Gaussian distribution. Its asymptotic efficiency is at least 1.4 times higher than those of estimators based on simple random sampling. It is useful in reliability studies and in Bayesian statistics involving the inverse Gaussian distribution.
不等样本最大排序集抽样是一种用于减少观测值排序误差和提高统计推断效率的抽样方法。它用于高斯反分布的位置和形状参数的极大似然估计。它的渐近效率比基于简单随机抽样的估计器至少高1.4倍。它在可靠性研究和涉及逆高斯分布的贝叶斯统计中很有用。
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引用次数: 7
Entropy-based estimation of the birth-death ratio 出生死亡率的熵估计
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-12-23 DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1988351
Igor Lazov, Petar Lazov
ABSTRACT A population is modeled by a birth-death process in a finite state space. Its stationary distribution is indexed by its birth-death ratio. A sample of values taken by the population size has an elastic sample mean (mean of the observations), an additional sample mean (mean of the logarithms of the observations transformed by a given function), and a synchronizing sample mean (combination of the previous means). When the last two means are zero, then, by definition, information is linear in population size. This is only the case when the population size is geometrically distributed. Equalizing the entropy of a distribution to the entropy calculated on any sample involves the three sample means and allows for estimating the birth-death ratio. Only in the case of information linear in population size, this procedure reduces to maximum likelihood estimation, which involves only the elastic sample mean. The procedure is demonstrated on information that is no longer linear in population size, such as a binomial distribution of population size, where the last two means are not zero, but just equal, and a Pascal distribution and a Poisson distribution, where the last two means are neither zero nor equal.
摘要在有限的状态空间中,通过出生-死亡过程对种群进行建模。它的平稳分布是由它的出生-死亡比率来索引的。按总体大小获取的值的样本具有弹性样本平均值(观测值的平均值)、附加样本平均值、同步样本平均值。当最后两个均值为零时,那么,根据定义,信息在总体规模上是线性的。只有当人口规模呈几何分布时才会出现这种情况。将分布的熵与在任何样本上计算的熵相等涉及三个样本均值,并允许估计出生死亡率。只有在信息总体大小呈线性的情况下,该过程才简化为最大似然估计,只涉及弹性样本均值。该过程是在人口规模不再是线性的信息上演示的,例如人口规模的二项式分布,其中最后两个均值不是零,而是相等的,以及Pascal分布和Poisson分布,其中后两个均值既不为零也不相等。
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引用次数: 0
Lead toxicity in the bald eagle population of the Great Lakes region 五大湖区秃鹰种群的铅毒性
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1983323
Christine Brasic, Latimer Harris-Ward, F. Milner, Carlos Bustamante-Orellana, Jordy Cevallos-Chavez, L. Arriola
ABSTRACT Ingestion of lead-based ammunition is one of the leading causes of the mortality of bald eagles. Their primary source is unretrieved carrion contaminated with lead from hunters’ ammunition. Lead toxicity can have serious clinical consequences, including reduced fertility and consumption. A model with ordinary differential equations describes the dynamics of available contaminated carrion and the progression of eagles through stages of lead poisoning. Nonnegative solutions exist and equilibrium points are stable for certain parameter ranges. Sensitivity analysis shows that the bald eagle population in the Great Lakes region is primarily dependent on the rate of entry of contaminated carrion in the environment, more so than on retrieval or on the rate of treatment of eagles. Estimates of financial costs of each of these three measures show that the most effective measure is to find a substitute for lead cartridges.
摘要:摄入铅基弹药是导致秃鹰死亡的主要原因之一。它们的主要来源是被猎人弹药中的铅污染的未经回收的腐肉。铅毒性可产生严重的临床后果,包括降低生育能力和消耗量。一个带有常微分方程的模型描述了可用的受污染腐肉的动力学以及鹰在铅中毒阶段的进展。存在非负解,平衡点在一定的参数范围内是稳定的。敏感性分析表明,大湖区秃鹰的数量主要取决于受污染腐肉进入环境的速度,而不是鹰的回收或处理速度。对这三项措施的财政成本估计表明,最有效的措施是找到铅弹的替代品。
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引用次数: 0
Keeping random walks safe from extinction and overpopulation in the presence of life-taking disasters 在发生夺走生命的灾难时,保持随机行走的安全,避免灭绝和人口过剩
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-10-25 DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1976476
Branda Goncalves, Thiery E. Huillet
ABSTRACT Recurrence and transience conditions are made explicit in discrete-time Markov chain population models for which random stationary growth alternates with disastrous random life-taking events. These events either have moderate stationary magnitudes or lead to an abrupt population decline. The probability of their occurrence may or may not depend on the population size. These conditions are based on the existence or not of a “weak” carrying capacity, where “weak” means that the carrying capacity can be exceeded, temporarily. In this framework, the population is threatened with extinction, an event whose probability is expressed, as well as the law of the time remaining until this deadline. On the other hand, the population is also threatened by overpopulation, an event whose time to reach a given threshold is expressed, as well as the difference between the population size and the carrying capacity. The theory is that of extreme values for Markov chains and is based on the control of the spectral properties of the northwest truncation of the transition matrix of the original Markov chain with life-taking disasters. The article presents an extension to the case where the process of life-taking disasters is no longer geometric and to the case where the probability of occurrence of a disaster depends on the population size. Both the time to extinction and the time to a given threshold have geometrically decaying distribution tails. The use of the extremal Markov chain in the calculation of the time to overpopulation is innovative.
摘要在离散时间马尔可夫链种群模型中,明确了随机平稳增长与灾难性随机夺命事件交替的递归和瞬态条件。这些事件要么具有中等的平稳幅度,要么导致人口急剧下降。它们发生的概率可能取决于人口规模,也可能不取决于人口数量。这些条件是基于是否存在“弱”承载能力,其中“弱”意味着可以暂时超过承载能力。在这个框架下,种群面临灭绝的威胁,这一事件的概率以及截止日期前的剩余时间定律都得到了表达。另一方面,人口也受到人口过剩的威胁,人口过剩是一种达到给定阈值的时间,以及人口规模和承载能力之间的差异。该理论是马尔可夫链的极值理论,基于对具有致命灾难的原始马尔可夫链的转移矩阵的西北截断的谱性质的控制。这篇文章扩展了夺走生命的灾难过程不再是几何的情况,以及灾难发生的概率取决于人口规模的情况。到灭绝的时间和到给定阈值的时间都具有几何衰减的分布尾。在计算人口过剩的时间时使用极端马尔可夫链是创新的。
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引用次数: 2
Population models of diabetes mellitus by ordinary differential equations: a review 用常微分方程建立糖尿病人群模型的研究进展
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1959817
H. Nasir, A. A. Mat Daud
ABSTRACT Population models of diabetes using ordinary differential equations are reviewed. They are refined by incorporating non-diabetics, prediabetics, low awareness prediabetics, awareness prediabetics, and awareness programs. However, they may involve products and fractions that do not reflect what is known about reality or ignore the presence of time lags in the development of diabetes. No model takes into account the limited medical treatments considered. This review shows the need to consider finer specifications of interactions, time delays, and budget constraints in epidemiological modeling of diabetes.
综述了应用常微分方程的糖尿病群体模型。它们是通过结合非糖尿病患者、糖尿病前期患者、低认知糖尿病前期患者和认知计划来完善的。然而,它们可能涉及的产品和组分不能反映对现实的了解,或者忽略了糖尿病发展中存在的时间滞后。没有一个模型考虑到所考虑的有限医疗。这篇综述表明,在糖尿病流行病学建模中,需要考虑更精细的相互作用、时间延迟和预算限制规范。
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引用次数: 5
Variance estimation based on L-moments and auxiliary information 基于l矩和辅助信息的方差估计
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-07-26 DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1949923
U. Shahzad, I. Ahmad, I. Almanjahie, N. Koyuncu, M. Hanif
ABSTRACT The presence of extreme values in a data set reduces the efficiency of variance estimators. L-moments are based on the ordered form of a random variable to estimate the variance of the population. The two variance estimators are used for calibration to a stratified random sampling design and relying on an auxiliary variable. The proposed estimators use the properties of L-moments, such as the L-mean, also called L-location, the L-standard deviation, also called L-scaling, and the L-coefficient of variation, which is a measure of variation. The use of these properties allows for providing better estimators. A simulation proves the better efficiency of these estimators.
数据集中极值的存在降低了方差估计器的效率。l矩基于随机变量的有序形式来估计总体的方差。这两个方差估计量用于校正分层随机抽样设计并依赖于辅助变量。提出的估计器使用l -矩的性质,如l -均值(也称为l -定位)、l -标准差(也称为l -缩放)和l -变异系数(这是变异的度量)。使用这些属性可以提供更好的估计器。仿真结果证明了这些估计器的有效性。
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引用次数: 3
Geostatistical patterns of comorbidity of diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and stunting among under-five children in Nigeria 尼日利亚五岁以下儿童腹泻、急性呼吸道感染和发育迟缓合并症的地理统计模式
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-07-09 DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1942654
E. Gayawan, Olamide Seyi Orunmoluyi, O. Adegboye
ABSTRACT Among children under five in Nigeria, in the year 2018, the prevalence of diarrhea was 13%, that of acute respiratory infections 3%, and that of stunting 37%. A shared-component model highlights geographic variations in the comorbidities of these diseases. The data are from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The majority of states in northern Nigeria presented clusters of higher risk for comorbidities of any pair of the three diseases. Compared with mothers with primary education or less, mothers with secondary education were 1.4 times less likely to have two or three of these diseases at the same time, and women with tertiary education 2.0 times less. Compared to childless women of the same age, mothers were 1.6 times less when aged 20–29, 1.9 times less when aged 30–39, and 2.0 times less when aged 40–49. Access to a protected water source reduced the risk by a factor of 1.3. Girls under age five were 1.2 times less likely than boys of that age to have two or three of these diseases at the same time. This factor was the same for breastfed children compared to those who were not breastfed.
摘要2018年,尼日利亚五岁以下儿童腹泻患病率为13%,急性呼吸道感染患病率为3%,发育迟缓患病率为37%。共享成分模型强调了这些疾病合并症的地理差异。数据来自2018年尼日利亚人口与健康调查。尼日利亚北部的大多数州出现这三种疾病中任何一种合并症的风险都较高。与受过小学或以下教育的母亲相比,受过中学教育的母亲同时患两到三种以上疾病的可能性低1.4倍,受过高等教育的妇女低2.0倍。与同龄无子女女性相比,母亲在20-29岁时减少1.6倍,在30-39岁时减少1.9倍,在40-49岁时减少2.0倍。获得受保护的水源将风险降低了1.3倍。五岁以下的女孩同时患两到三种此类疾病的可能性是该年龄男孩的1.2倍。与未母乳喂养的儿童相比,母乳喂养儿童的这一因素是相同的。
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引用次数: 6
Bayesian forecast of the basic reproduction number during the Covid-19 epidemic in Morocco and Italy 摩洛哥和意大利2019冠状病毒病流行期间基本繁殖数的贝叶斯预测
IF 1.8 3区 社会学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-07-09 DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1941661
M. El Fatini, Mohamed El khalifi, R. Gerlach, R. Pettersson
ABSTRACT In a Covid-19 susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model with time-varying rates of transmission, recovery, and death, the parameters are constant in small time intervals. A posteriori parameters result from the Euler-Maruyama approximation for stochastic differential equations and from Bayes’ theorem. Parameter estimates and 10-day predictions are performed based on Moroccan and Italian Covid-19 data. Mean absolute errors and mean square errors indicate that predictions are of good quality.
摘要在具有时变传播率、恢复率和死亡率的新冠肺炎易感感染-恢复死亡模型中,参数在小时间间隔内是恒定的。后验参数来自随机微分方程的Euler Maruyama近似和Bayes定理。根据摩洛哥和意大利新冠肺炎数据进行参数估计和10天预测。平均绝对误差和均方误差表明预测具有良好的质量。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Mathematical Population Studies
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