Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00605-x
Oscar Cortes-Azuero, Megan O'Driscoll, Gabriel Ribeiro dos Santos, Ronaldo de Jesus, Shirlene T S de Lima, Danny Scarponi, Christinah Mukandavire, Arminder Deol, Moritz U G Kraemer, William M de Souza, Henrik Salje
Background
The first chikungunya virus (CHIKV) vaccine is now licensed in Brazil, the country that reports the most cases of CHIKV globally; however, the optimal use of the vaccine remains unclear owing to a poor understanding of CHIKV epidemiology and population immunity. We aimed to combine the distribution of cases and deaths reported since 2014 with seroprevalence studies to inform mathematical models that estimate the underlying rates of infection by state and year, and the underlying patterns of disease and death by age and sex.
Methods
We quantified the annual CHIKV infection and disease burden between 2014 and 2024 in each of the 27 federative units of Brazil using a mathematical model in a Bayesian framework that integrated serological surveys (n=12) and confirmed CHIKV disease cases (n=488 234) and CHIKV deaths (n=1719) reported between January, 2014, and September, 2024. Using this base, we estimated the potential impact of a vaccine over the period 2025–29 had the population been vaccinated before the 2025 season, evaluating different roll-out strategies.
Findings
We found that 18·3% (95% credible interval 16·5–20·3) of the Brazilian population has been infected since 2014, with the highest risk concentrated in the northeast and southeast. Overall, 1·13% (1·07–1·19) of infections were detected by surveillance systems, with an increasing probability of symptoms with age and greater risk of symptoms in females. Vaccinating 40% of the population older than 12 years (73 million doses), and assuming a vaccine efficacy of 70% against infection and 95% against disease, would avert up to 1·6 million (0·5–3) cases and 198 (61–359) deaths over the next 5 years.
Interpretation
Despite widespread circulation, most of Brazil remains susceptible to infection. CHIKV vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce disease burden.
Funding
CEPI.
Translation
For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00718-2
Frank Aarestrup, Marion Koopmans
{"title":"Artificial intelligence and spillover prediction: aligning innovation with empirical reality in One Health surveillance – Authors' reply","authors":"Frank Aarestrup, Marion Koopmans","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00718-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00718-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145608720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00715-7
Nader Ebrahimi, Amir Ghaemi
{"title":"Artificial intelligence and spillover prediction: aligning innovation with empirical reality in One Health surveillance","authors":"Nader Ebrahimi, Amir Ghaemi","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00715-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00715-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145608722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00619-x
Dina Averbuch, Yuri Vanbiervliet, Francesco Baccelli, Malgorzata Mikulska, Dionysios Neofytos, Carolina Garcia-Vidal, Manuela Aguilar-Guisado, Nicole Blijlevens, Patricia Munoz, Catherine Cordonnier, Murat Akova, Thierry Calandra
{"title":"Empirical and targeted antimicrobial therapy in patients with febrile neutropenia and haematological malignancy or after haematopoietic cell transplantation: recommendations from the 10th European Conference on Infections in Leukaemia","authors":"Dina Averbuch, Yuri Vanbiervliet, Francesco Baccelli, Malgorzata Mikulska, Dionysios Neofytos, Carolina Garcia-Vidal, Manuela Aguilar-Guisado, Nicole Blijlevens, Patricia Munoz, Catherine Cordonnier, Murat Akova, Thierry Calandra","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00619-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00619-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145599054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00686-3
Tammy Allen, Samuel K Dadzie, DSAF Dheerasinghe, Gamou Fall, Nuno R Faria, Emilie Javelle, Maria E Grillet, Maria G Guzman, Kleber Giovanni Luz, Hmooda T Kafy, Ehsan Mostafavi, Lee-Ching Ng, Chantal Reusken, Thomas W Scott, Naveen R Tuli, Marietjie Venter
{"title":"Strengthening global preparedness and response to arboviral disease threats: a call to action","authors":"Tammy Allen, Samuel K Dadzie, DSAF Dheerasinghe, Gamou Fall, Nuno R Faria, Emilie Javelle, Maria E Grillet, Maria G Guzman, Kleber Giovanni Luz, Hmooda T Kafy, Ehsan Mostafavi, Lee-Ching Ng, Chantal Reusken, Thomas W Scott, Naveen R Tuli, Marietjie Venter","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00686-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00686-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145592875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-22DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00588-2
Ying Zhang, Eric P F Chow, Lei Zhang, Christopher K Fairley, Jason J Ong
{"title":"Comparison of the performance and costs of testing algorithms using rapid diagnostic tests for detection and treatment of syphilis among pregnant individuals and men who have sex with men: a modelling study","authors":"Ying Zhang, Eric P F Chow, Lei Zhang, Christopher K Fairley, Jason J Ong","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00588-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00588-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145567325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-22DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00690-5
Christine Happle, Markus Hoffmann, Metodi V Stankov, Inga Nehlmeier, Amy Eichmann, Torsten Witte, Luis Manthey, Stefan Pöhlmann, Alexandra Dopfer-Jablonka, Georg M N Behrens
{"title":"Effects of LP.8.1-adapted mRNA vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 variant neutralisation","authors":"Christine Happle, Markus Hoffmann, Metodi V Stankov, Inga Nehlmeier, Amy Eichmann, Torsten Witte, Luis Manthey, Stefan Pöhlmann, Alexandra Dopfer-Jablonka, Georg M N Behrens","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00690-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00690-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"165 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145567324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-21DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00726-1
{"title":"Correction to Lancet Infect Dis 2025; published online Oct 29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(25)00466-9","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00726-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00726-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49923,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Infectious Diseases","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.3,"publicationDate":"2025-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145559713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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