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Self-weighted estimation for nonstationary processes with infinite variance GARCH errors 具有无限方差GARCH误差的非平稳过程的自加权估计
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106360
Yuze Yuan , Shuyu Liu , Rongmao Zhang
Zhang and Chan (2021) considered the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test for an unit root process with linear noise driven by generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH), and showed that the ADF test may perform even worse than the Dickey–Fuller test. The main reason is that the parameters of the lag terms in the ADF regression cannot be estimated consistently for infinite variance GARCH noises based on least square estimation (LSE). In this paper, we propose a self-weighted least square estimation (SWLSE) procedure to solve this problem. Consequently, a new test based on SWLSE for the unit-root is also proposed. It is shown that the SWLSE are consistent, and the proposed test converges to a functional of a stable process and a Brownian motion and performs well in term of size and power. Simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of our procedure, and a real-world illustrative example is provided.
Zhang和Chan(2021)考虑了广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)驱动线性噪声的单位根过程的增广Dickey-Fuller (ADF)检验,并表明ADF检验的表现可能比Dickey-Fuller检验更差。主要原因是基于最小二乘估计(LSE)的无限方差GARCH噪声的ADF回归中滞后项的参数无法一致估计。本文提出一种自加权最小二乘估计(SWLSE)方法来解决这一问题。在此基础上,提出了一种新的基于SWLSE的单位根检验方法。结果表明,SWLSE是一致的,所提出的测试收敛于稳定过程和布朗运动的泛函,并且在大小和功率方面表现良好。通过仿真研究对该方法的性能进行了评价,并给出了一个实例。
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引用次数: 0
Semiparametric tests for Lorenz dominance based on density ratio model 基于密度比模型的Lorenz优势度半参数检验
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106361
Weiwei Zhuang , Weiqi Yang , Wenchen Liao , Yukun Liu
Lorenz dominance is a fundamental tool for assessing whether wealth or income disparity is greater in one population than another. Based on the well-established density ratio model, we propose a new semiparametric test for Lorenz dominance. We show that the limiting distribution of the proposed test statistic is the supremum of a Gaussian process. To facilitate practical application, we devise a bootstrap procedure to calculate the p-value and establish its theoretical validity. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed test correctly controls the Type I error and outperforms its competitors in terms of statistical power. Finally, we apply the test to compare salary distributions among higher education employees in Ohio from 2011 to 2015.
洛伦兹优势是评估一个人群的财富或收入差距是否大于另一个人群的基本工具。基于已建立的密度比模型,我们提出了一种新的洛伦兹优势度的半参数检验方法。我们证明了所提出的检验统计量的极限分布是高斯过程的极大值。为了便于实际应用,我们设计了一个自举程序来计算p值并验证其理论有效性。我们的仿真研究表明,所提出的测试正确地控制了I型误差,并在统计功率方面优于其竞争对手。最后,我们运用该检验比较了2011 - 2015年俄亥俄州高等教育员工的薪酬分布。
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引用次数: 0
Variable selection in high-dimensional varying coefficient panel data models with fixed effects 固定效应高维变系数面板数据模型的变量选择
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106355
Yiping Yang , Peixin Zhao
To address the challenges of variable selection in panel data models with fixed effects and varying coefficients, we introduce a novel method that combines basis function approximations with group nonconcave penalty functions. By utilizing a forward orthogonal deviation transformation, we eliminate fixed effects, allowing us to select significant variables and estimate non-zero coefficient functions. Under certain regularity conditions, we demonstrate that our method consistently identifies the true model structure, and the resulting estimators exhibit oracle properties. For computational efficiency, we have developed a group gradient descent algorithm that incorporates a transformation of the penalty terms. Simulation studies reveal that nonconvex penalties (SCAD/MCP) outperform the Lasso across various performance metrics. Furthermore, compared to existing methods, our approach significantly reduces false positives (FPs). To demonstrate the practical applicability and effectiveness of our method, we present an analysis of a real dataset.
为了解决固定效应和变系数面板数据模型中变量选择的挑战,我们提出了一种结合基函数逼近和群非凹惩罚函数的新方法。通过利用正向正交偏差变换,我们消除了固定效应,允许我们选择重要变量并估计非零系数函数。在一定的规则条件下,我们证明了我们的方法一致地识别了真实的模型结构,并且得到的估计器显示了oracle属性。为了提高计算效率,我们开发了一种包含惩罚项变换的群梯度下降算法。仿真研究表明,非凸惩罚(SCAD/MCP)在各种性能指标上都优于Lasso。此外,与现有方法相比,我们的方法显著降低了误报(FPs)。为了证明我们的方法的实用性和有效性,我们给出了一个真实数据集的分析。
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引用次数: 0
Mixed latent graphical models with mixed measurement error and misclassification in variables 具有混合测量误差和变量误分类的混合潜在图形模型
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106359
Yu Shi , Grace Y. Yi
Graphical models are powerful tools for characterizing conditional dependence structures among variables with complex relationships. Although many methods have been developed under the graphical modeling framework, their validity often hinges on the quality of the data. A fundamental assumption in most existing approaches is that all variables are measured precisely, an assumption frequently violated in practice. In many applications, mismeasurement of mixed discrete and continuous variables is a common challenge. In this paper, we address error-contaminated data involving both continuous and discrete variables by proposing a mixed latent Gaussian copula graphical measurement error model. To perform inference, we develop a simulation-based expectation–maximization procedure that explicitly accounts for mismeasurement effects. We further introduce a computationally efficient refinement to reduce the computational burden. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator are established, and its finite-sample performance is evaluated through numerical studies.
图形模型是描述具有复杂关系的变量间条件依赖结构的有力工具。尽管在图形建模框架下开发了许多方法,但它们的有效性往往取决于数据的质量。大多数现有方法的一个基本假设是,所有变量都是精确测量的,这一假设在实践中经常被违反。在许多应用中,离散和连续混合变量的测量错误是一个常见的挑战。在本文中,我们通过提出一个混合潜在高斯耦合图形测量误差模型来处理涉及连续和离散变量的误差污染数据。为了进行推理,我们开发了一个基于模拟的期望最大化程序,该程序明确地说明了误测量效应。我们进一步引入了一种计算效率高的改进来减少计算负担。建立了该估计器的渐近性质,并通过数值研究对其有限样本性能进行了评价。
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引用次数: 0
D-criterion based optimal subsampling in Poisson regression with one covariate 单协变量泊松回归中基于d准则的最优子抽样
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106340
Torsten Glemser, Rainer Schwabe
The goal of subsampling is to select an informative subset of all observations, when using the full data for statistical analysis is not viable. We construct locally D-optimal subsampling designs under a Poisson regression model with a log link in one covariate. A representation of the support of locally D-optimal subsampling designs is established. We make statements on scale-location transformations of the covariate that require a simultaneous transformation of the regression parameter. The performance of the methods is demonstrated by illustrating examples. To show the advantage of the optimal subsampling designs, we examine the efficiency of uniform random subsampling as well as of two heuristic designs. Further, the efficiency of locally D-optimal subsampling designs is studied when the parameter is misspecified.
当使用全部数据进行统计分析是不可行的时候,子抽样的目标是在所有观测中选择一个信息丰富的子集。我们在一个协变量有log链接的泊松回归模型下构造了局部d -最优子抽样设计。建立了局部d最优子抽样设计支持度的表示。我们对协变量的尺度-位置变换作了陈述,这些变换要求同时对回归参数进行变换。通过算例验证了方法的有效性。为了展示最优子抽样设计的优势,我们考察了均匀随机子抽样和两种启发式设计的效率。在此基础上,研究了局部d最优子抽样设计在参数不确定情况下的效率。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of diagnostic biomarkers: A comparative analysis by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 诊断性生物标志物的评价:通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积的比较分析
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106336
Pengfei Liu , Kai Lou , Yangchun Zhang , Peng Zhao , Wang Zhou
In recent years, a substantial of biomarkers have surfaced to facilitate the prompt diagnosis and intervention of chronic kidney disease. However, the lack of a reliable approach to compare biomarker efficacy poses a significant challenge in clinical practice and biomedical research. The inability to accurately assess biomarkers’ performance limits their utility in disease diagnosis. In this article, we study the efficiency of different diagnostic markers by comparing the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of markers, which are estimated via the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney statistics. Furthermore, the precision of interval estimation was enhanced through the implementation of the Edgeworth expansion and bootstrap approximation on the statistics. By performing numerical simulations, we have demonstrated that our improved methods exhibit superior accuracy in constructing confidence intervals when compared to the traditional normal approximation method.
近年来,大量的生物标志物已经浮出水面,以促进慢性肾脏疾病的及时诊断和干预。然而,缺乏一种可靠的方法来比较生物标志物的疗效,这对临床实践和生物医学研究构成了重大挑战。无法准确评估生物标志物的性能限制了它们在疾病诊断中的应用。在本文中,我们通过比较标记的接受者工作特征曲线下的面积来研究不同诊断标记的效率,这些标记是通过Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney统计估计的。此外,通过对统计量进行Edgeworth展开和自举逼近,提高了区间估计的精度。通过进行数值模拟,我们已经证明,与传统的正态近似方法相比,我们改进的方法在构建置信区间方面具有更高的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Joint distribution of numbers of occurrences of countably many runs of specified lengths in a sequence of discrete random variables 离散随机变量序列中指定长度的可数多次运行的出现次数的联合分布
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106353
Kiyoshi Inoue
In this paper, we consider the joint distribution of numbers of occurrences of countably many runs of several lengths in a sequence of nonnegative integer valued independent and identically distributed random variables through the generating functions. We propose a generalization of the potential partition polynomials, which gives effective computational tools for the derivation of probability functions. The waiting time problems associated with infinitely many runs are investigated and formulae for the evaluation of the generating functions are given. The results presented here provide a wide framework for developing the multivariate distribution theory of runs. Finally, we discuss several applications and numerical examples to show how our theoretical results are applied to the investigation of runs, as well as parameter estimation problems.
本文通过生成函数研究了非负整数值独立同分布随机变量序列中若干长度的可数多次运行的出现次数的联合分布。我们提出了一种潜在配分多项式的推广方法,它为概率函数的推导提供了有效的计算工具。研究了无限次运行的等待时间问题,给出了生成函数的求值公式。本文提出的结果为发展多变量运行分布理论提供了一个广泛的框架。最后,我们讨论了几个应用和数值例子,以显示我们的理论结果如何应用于研究运行,以及参数估计问题。
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引用次数: 0
Causal inference in early phase clinical trials: Variance decomposition and order of patient inclusion 早期临床试验的因果推断:方差分解和患者纳入顺序
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106352
Matthieu Clertant , Meliha Akouba , Alexia Iasonos , John O’Quigley
Causal inference tools, in particular those of variance decomposition, hierarchical data structures and counterfactuals, are applied to the study of the methodology of dose-finding studies in oncology. A detailed variance decomposition brings into a much sharper focus the relative performance of different designs. We develop and present new results on the role played by the order of patient inclusions into a sequential dose-finding study. These results make it clear why, previously, authors could easily be misled into a conclusion that different designs enjoy similar performances. This is not so and we show how to avoid making that mistake. We highlight our findings via both theoretical and numerical studies.
因果推理工具,特别是方差分解、分层数据结构和反事实的工具,应用于肿瘤学剂量发现研究方法的研究。详细的方差分解使不同设计的相对性能得到更清晰的关注。我们开发并提出了新的结果,在顺序的剂量发现研究中,患者包裹体的顺序所起的作用。这些结果清楚地表明,为什么以前,作者很容易被误导得出不同设计具有相似性能的结论。事实并非如此,我们将展示如何避免犯这种错误。我们通过理论和数值研究强调了我们的发现。
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引用次数: 0
Consistent community detection approach in the nonparametric weighted stochastic blockmodel with unspecified number of communities 非参数加权随机块模型中未指定社团数的一致性社团检测方法
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106339
Fei Ye , Jingsong Xiao , Weidong Ma , Yulai Miao , Ying Yang
The stochastic blockmodel (SBM) is a widely used model for representing graphs. Numerous approaches have been applied to the SBM to detect latent community structures in graphs, typically using two types of consistency (strong and weak) to evaluate their performance. Most of these methods have been studied and shown to be consistent under the SBM framework. However, the consistency of the weighted SBM, an important extension of the SBM, has been largely overlooked. Moreover, few approaches are capable of detecting communities when the number of communities is unknown. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric method for effective community detection under the assortative, nonparametric weighted SBM with an unknown number of communities, and we establish the consistency of our approach. We introduce a novel concept, “consistency in relationship”, as a more practical criterion to assess the performance of community detection algorithms. Since solving the optimization problem in our approach becomes intractable for large sample sizes, we propose an efficient algorithm to approximate it. Simulations demonstrate that our community detection method is both efficient and robust, particularly for unbalanced networks. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach on three real-world networks.
随机块模型(SBM)是一种广泛使用的图表示模型。许多方法已经应用于SBM来检测图中的潜在群落结构,通常使用两种类型的一致性(强和弱)来评估它们的性能。这些方法大多已被研究,并显示在SBM框架下是一致的。然而,加权SBM的一致性是SBM的重要延伸,在很大程度上被忽视了。此外,很少有方法能够在社区数量未知的情况下检测社区。本文提出了一种非参数方法,用于在未知社团数量的分类、非参数加权SBM下进行有效的社团检测,并验证了该方法的一致性。我们引入了一个新的概念,“关系一致性”,作为评估社区检测算法性能的一个更实用的标准。由于在我们的方法中求解优化问题对于大样本量变得难以处理,我们提出了一个有效的算法来近似它。仿真结果表明,该方法具有较好的鲁棒性和有效性,尤其适用于不平衡网络。我们在三个现实世界的网络上说明了我们的方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
General sliced minimum aberration designs for multi-platform experiments 用于多平台实验的一般切片最小像差设计
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106357
Yuliang Zhou, Qianqian Zhao, Shengli Zhao
Sliced designs are widely used in multi-platform experiments. A sliced design contains several sub-designs divided by the sliced factor, and each sub-design is assigned to a platform, respectively. In some experimental scenarios, it is necessary to consider the optimality of both the sub-designs and the complete sliced designs, such sliced designs are referred to as general sliced (GS) designs. To construct the optimal GS designs for such scenarios, we propose the general sliced effect hierarchy principle (GSEHP). Based on the GSEHP, we introduce the general sliced minimum aberration (GSMA) criterion and choose the GSMA designs as optimal GS designs when the sliced factor and design factors are equally important. Some GSMA designs with 32 and 64 runs are tabulated. Additionally, we present a practical example to illustrate the application of GSMA designs in guiding strategies of webpage setting on two platforms.
切片设计广泛应用于多平台实验。一个切片设计包含若干个被切片因子划分的子设计,每个子设计分别分配给一个平台。在某些实验场景中,需要同时考虑子设计和完整切片设计的最优性,这种切片设计称为一般切片设计(GS)。为了构建这种场景下的最优GS设计,我们提出了通用切片效应层次原则(GSEHP)。在GSEHP的基础上,引入了通用最小像差(GSMA)准则,并在切片因素和设计因素同等重要的情况下,选择GSMA设计作为最优的GS设计。一些运行32次和64次的GSMA设计被制成表格。此外,我们还通过一个实例说明了GSMA设计在两个平台的网页设置指导策略中的应用。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference
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