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Estimation and testing for varying-coefficient single-index quantile regression models 变系数单指标分位数回归模型的估计与检验
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106289
Hui Ding , Mei Yao , Riquan Zhang , Zhenglong Zhang , Hanbing Zhu
In this paper we propose varying-coefficient single-index quantile regression models, which includes most existing quantile regression models. We adopt B-spline basis approximation for the estimation of nonparametric components and use the “delete-one-component” method to construct check loss function. Under some mild conditions, we establish asymptotic theory of the proposed estimators for both the parametric and nonparametric components. Moreover, we propose a rank score based test to examine whether the varying-coefficient functions are constant. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimation method is illustrated by simulation studies and an empirical analysis of two real datasets.
本文提出了变系数单指标分位数回归模型,该模型包含了大多数现有的分位数回归模型。我们采用b样条基近似估计非参数分量,并使用“删除一分量”方法构造校验损失函数。在一些温和的条件下,我们建立了所提估计量对参数分量和非参数分量的渐近理论。此外,我们提出了一个基于等级分数的检验来检验变系数函数是否为常数。通过仿真研究和两个真实数据集的实证分析,说明了所提出的估计方法的有限样本性能。
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引用次数: 0
Fixed-budget optimal designs for multi-fidelity computer experiments 多保真度计算机实验的固定预算优化设计
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106286
Gecheng Chen, Rui Tuo
This work focuses on the design of experiments of multi-fidelity computer experiments. We consider the autoregressive Gaussian process model proposed by Kennedy and O’Hagan (2000) and the optimal nested design that maximizes the prediction accuracy subject to a budget constraint. An approximate solution is identified through the idea of multi-level approximation and recent error bounds of Gaussian process regression. The proposed (approximately) optimal designs admit a simple analytical form. We prove that, to achieve the same prediction accuracy, the proposed optimal multi-fidelity design requires much lower computational cost than any single-fidelity design in the asymptotic sense. Numerical studies confirm this theoretical assertion.
本工作的重点是多保真度计算机实验的实验设计。我们考虑Kennedy和O 'Hagan(2000)提出的自回归高斯过程模型,以及在预算约束下使预测精度最大化的最优嵌套设计。通过多层逼近的思想和高斯过程回归的最新误差界,确定了近似解。所提出的(近似)最优设计具有简单的解析形式。在渐近意义上,我们证明了在达到相同预测精度的情况下,所提出的最优多保真度设计比任何单保真度设计所需的计算成本要低得多。数值研究证实了这一理论论断。
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引用次数: 0
Nonparametric regression with predictors missing at random and the scale depending on auxiliary covariates 随机缺失预测因子和依赖辅助协变量的尺度的非参数回归
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106278
Tian Jiang
Nonparametric regression with missing at random (MAR) predictors, univariate regression component of interest, and the scale function depending on both the predictor and auxiliary covariates, is considered. The asymptotic theory suggests that both heteroscedasticity and MAR mechanism affect the sharp constant of the minimax mean integrated squared error (MISE) convergence. We propose a data-driven procedure adaptive to the missing mechanism and unknown smoothness of the estimated regression function. The estimator preserves the optimal convergence rate and can achieve sharp minimaxity when predictors are missing completely at random (MCAR).
考虑了随机缺失(MAR)预测因子的非参数回归,感兴趣的单变量回归成分以及依赖于预测因子和辅助协变量的尺度函数。渐近理论表明,异方差和MAR机制都影响最小最大平均积分平方误差(MISE)收敛的锐常数。我们提出了一种适应缺失机制和未知平滑估计回归函数的数据驱动过程。该估计器保持了最优的收敛速度,并且在预测器完全随机缺失(MCAR)的情况下可以达到急剧极小值。
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引用次数: 0
Uniformly asymptotic normality of estimation of the drift function for diffusion processes 扩散过程漂移函数估计的一致渐近正态性
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106274
Shanchao Yang , Qi Lan , Xueyan Xu , Zhu Liang
The diffusion process is widely used in finance, and many scholars pay close attention to the statistical estimation of diffusion processes. Some literature has discussed the non parametric kernel estimation of drift and diffusion functions, and proved the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators, but the convergence rate of asymptotic normality has not been discussed yet. In this paper, we derive the convergence rate of uniformly asymptotic normality of the drift function estimator by using the method of large and small blocks for stationary and ρ-mixing diffusion process. In the case of optimal bandwidth, the rate of uniformly asymptotic normality reaches n2/15. In order to prove the results, we put forward some inequalities for mixing processes with variable sampling interval, which play a key role in the study of limit theory.
扩散过程在金融中得到了广泛的应用,许多学者都非常关注扩散过程的统计估计。一些文献讨论了漂移函数和扩散函数的非参数核估计,并证明了估计量的相合性和渐近正态性,但尚未讨论渐近正态性的收敛速度。本文利用大小块法导出了平稳和ρ-混合扩散过程的漂移函数估计量的一致渐近正态性的收敛速率。在带宽最优的情况下,一致渐近正态率达到n−2/15。为了证明这些结果,我们提出了一些在极限理论研究中起关键作用的变采样区间混合过程的不等式。
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引用次数: 0
Fixed values versus empirical quantiles as thresholds in excess distribution modelling 固定值与经验分位数作为过量分布模型的阈值
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106276
Daniel Gaigall , Julian Gerstenberg
Conditional excess distribution modelling is a widely used technique, in financial and insurance mathematics or survival analysis, for instance. Classical theory considers the thresholds as fixed values. In contrast, the use of empirical quantiles as thresholds offers advantages with respect to the design of the statistical experiment. Either way, the modeller is in a non-standard situation and runs in the risk of improper usage of statistical procedures. From both points of view, statistical planning and inference, a detailed discussion is requested. For this purpose, we treat both methods and demonstrate the necessity taking into account the characteristics of the approaches in practice. In detail, we derive general statements for empirical processes related to the conditional excess distribution in both situations. As examples, estimating the mean excess and the conditional Value-at-Risk are given. We apply our findings for the testing problems of goodness-of-fit and homogeneity for the conditional excess distribution and obtain new results of outstanding interest.
条件超额分布模型是一种广泛使用的技术,例如在金融和保险数学或生存分析中。经典理论认为阈值是固定值。相比之下,使用经验分位数作为阈值在统计实验的设计方面提供了优势。无论哪种方式,建模者都处于非标准的情况下,并且存在统计程序使用不当的风险。从统计规划和推断两方面来看,都需要进行详细的讨论。为此,我们对这两种方法进行了分析,并论证了在实践中考虑到这两种方法的特点的必要性。详细地,我们推导了与两种情况下的条件过剩分布相关的经验过程的一般陈述。作为例子,给出了均值超额和条件风险值的估计。我们将我们的发现应用于检验条件过剩分布的拟合优度和均匀性问题,并获得了令人感兴趣的新结果。
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引用次数: 0
Asymptotic normality and Cramér-type moderate deviations of Yule’s nonsense correlation statistic for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程Yule无意义相关统计量的渐近正态性和cram<s:1>型中等偏差
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106275
Jingying Zhou , Hui Jiang , Weigang Wang
In this paper, under discrete observations, we study the asymptotic consistency, asymptotic normality and Cramér-type moderate deviations of Yule’s nonsense correlation statistic for two Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. As applications, the global and local powers of the hypothesis testing for the independence between two Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes are shown to approach one at exponential rates. Simulation experiments are conducted to confirm the theoretical results. Moreover, empirical applications illustrate the usefulness of the above mentioned statistic and the asymptotic theory. The main methods consist of the deviation inequalities and Cramér-type moderate deviations for multiple Wiener–Itô integrals and asymptotic analysis techniques.
本文在离散观测条件下,研究了两个Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程的Yule 's无意义相关统计量的渐近一致性、渐近正态性和cram中度偏差。作为应用,证明了两个Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程之间独立性的假设检验的全局和局部幂在指数速率下接近于1。通过仿真实验验证了理论结果。此外,实证应用说明了上述统计量和渐近理论的有效性。主要方法包括偏差不等式和多重Wiener-Itô积分的cram中度偏差和渐近分析技术。
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引用次数: 0
Detection of suspicious areas in non-stationary Gaussian fields and locally averaged non-Gaussian linear fields 非平稳高斯场和局部平均非高斯线性场可疑区域的检测
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106273
Ansgar Steland
Gumbel-type extreme value theory for arrays of discrete Gaussian random fields is studied and applied to some classes of discretely sampled approximately locally self-similar Gaussian processes, especially micro-noise models. Non-Gaussian discrete random fields are handled by considering the maximum of local averages of raw data or residuals. Based on some novel weak approximations with rate for (weighted) partial sums for spatial linear processes including results under a class of local alternatives, sufficient conditions for Gumbel-type asymptotics of maximum-type detection rules to detect peaks and suspicious areas in image data and, more generally, random field data, are established. The results are examined by simulations and illustrated by analyzing CT brain image data.
研究了离散高斯随机场阵列的gumbel型极值理论,并将其应用于若干类离散采样的近似局部自相似高斯过程,特别是微噪声模型。非高斯离散随机场是通过考虑原始数据局部平均值或残差的最大值来处理的。基于空间线性过程的一些新的弱近似(加权)部分和率,包括在一类局部选择下的结果,建立了最大型检测规则的gumbel型渐近性的充分条件,以检测图像数据中的峰值和可疑区域,更一般地说,是随机场数据。结果通过仿真验证,并通过分析CT脑图像数据加以说明。
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引用次数: 0
The two-sample location shift model under log-concavity 对数凹性下的双样本位置移位模型
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106272
Riddhiman Saha , Priyam Das , Nilanjana Laha
In this paper, we consider the two-sample location shift model, a classic semiparametric model introduced by Stein(1956). This model is known for its adaptive nature, enabling nonparametric estimation with full parametric efficiency. Existing nonparametric estimators of the location shift often depend on external tuning parameters, which restricts their practical applicability Vanet al. (1998). We demonstrate that introducing an additional assumption of log-concavity on the underlying density can alleviate the need for tuning parameters. We propose a one step estimator for location shift estimation, utilizing log-concave density estimation techniques to facilitate tuning-free estimation of the efficient influence function. While we use a truncated version of the one step estimator to theoretically demonstrate adaptivity, our simulations indicate that the one step estimators perform best with zero truncation, eliminating the need for tuning during practical implementation. Notably, the efficiency of the truncated one step estimators steadily increases as the truncation level decreases, and those with low levels of truncation exhibit nearly identical empirical performance to the estimator with zero truncation. We apply our method to investigate the location shift in the distribution of Spanish annual household incomes following the 2008 financial crisis.
本文考虑Stein(1956)提出的经典半参数模型——双样本位置移位模型。该模型以其自适应特性而闻名,使非参数估计具有充分的参数效率。现有的位置移位的非参数估计往往依赖于外部调谐参数,这限制了它们的实际适用性(Vanet al., 1998)。我们证明了在底层密度上引入一个额外的对数凹性假设可以减轻对参数调优的需要。我们提出了一种单步估计器用于位置移位估计,利用对数凹密度估计技术来促进有效影响函数的无调谐估计。虽然我们使用截断版本的一步估计器来从理论上证明自适应性,但我们的模拟表明,一步估计器在零截断时表现最佳,从而消除了在实际实现期间调优的需要。值得注意的是,截断的一步估计器的效率随着截断水平的降低而稳步提高,并且截断水平低的估计器与零截断的估计器表现出几乎相同的经验性能。我们运用我们的方法来调查2008年金融危机后西班牙家庭年收入分布的区位转移。
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引用次数: 0
On cross-validated estimation of skew normal model 斜正态模型的交叉验证估计
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106271
Jian Zhang , Tong Wang
Skew normal model suffers from inferential drawbacks, namely singular Fisher information when it is close to symmetry and diverging of maximum likelihood estimation. This causes a large variation of the conventional maximum likelihood estimate. To address the above drawbacks, Azzalini and Arellano-Valle (2013) introduced maximum penalised likelihood estimation (MPLE) by subtracting a penalty function from the log-likelihood function with a pre-specified penalty coefficient. Here, we propose a cross-validated MPLE to improve its performance when the underlying model is close to symmetry. We develop a theory for MPLE, where an asymptotic rate for the cross-validated penalty coefficient is derived. We further show that the proposed cross-validated MPLE is asymptotically efficient under certain conditions. In simulation studies and a real data application, we demonstrate that the proposed estimator can outperform the conventional MPLE when the model is close to symmetry.
偏正态模型在接近对称和极大似然估计发散时存在奇异费雪信息的推理缺陷。这导致传统的最大似然估计有很大的变化。为了解决上述缺点,Azzalini和Arellano-Valle(2013)引入了最大惩罚似然估计(MPLE),通过从具有预先指定的惩罚系数的对数似然函数中减去惩罚函数。在这里,我们提出了一种交叉验证的MPLE,以提高其在底层模型接近对称时的性能。我们发展了一个MPLE理论,其中得到了交叉验证惩罚系数的渐近率。我们进一步证明了所提出的交叉验证MPLE在一定条件下是渐近有效的。在仿真研究和实际数据应用中,我们证明了该估计器在模型接近对称时优于传统的MPLE估计器。
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引用次数: 0
Model averaging prediction for survival data with time-dependent effects 具有时间依赖效应的生存数据的模型平均预测
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2024.106260
Xiaoguang Wang , Rong Hu , Mengyu Li
It is a fundamental task to predict patients’ survival outcomes in clinical research. As an extension of the Cox proportional hazards model, the time-dependent coefficient Cox model is typically utilized for time-to-event data with time-dependent effects. When the number of covariates is large, the curse of dimensionality emerges for most existing methods. To overcome the limitation and improve predictive performance, a semiparametric model averaging approach is proposed for the time-dependent coefficient Cox model. We introduce a novel criterion to estimate model weights and demonstrate its theoretical properties. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to compare the proposed technique with existing competitive methods. A real clinical data set is also analyzed to illustrate the advantages of our approach.
预测患者的生存结局是临床研究的一项基本任务。作为Cox比例风险模型的扩展,时间依赖系数Cox模型通常用于具有时间依赖效应的时间-事件数据。当协变量数量较大时,大多数现有方法都会出现维数问题。为了克服时间依赖系数Cox模型的局限性,提高预测性能,提出了一种半参数模型平均方法。我们引入了一种新的估计模型权重的准则,并证明了它的理论性质。进行了广泛的仿真研究,以比较所提出的技术与现有的竞争方法。一个真实的临床数据集也被分析来说明我们的方法的优点。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference
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