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Asymptotic normality and Cramér-type moderate deviations of Yule’s nonsense correlation statistic for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程Yule无意义相关统计量的渐近正态性和cram<s:1>型中等偏差
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106275
Jingying Zhou , Hui Jiang , Weigang Wang
In this paper, under discrete observations, we study the asymptotic consistency, asymptotic normality and Cramér-type moderate deviations of Yule’s nonsense correlation statistic for two Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. As applications, the global and local powers of the hypothesis testing for the independence between two Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes are shown to approach one at exponential rates. Simulation experiments are conducted to confirm the theoretical results. Moreover, empirical applications illustrate the usefulness of the above mentioned statistic and the asymptotic theory. The main methods consist of the deviation inequalities and Cramér-type moderate deviations for multiple Wiener–Itô integrals and asymptotic analysis techniques.
本文在离散观测条件下,研究了两个Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程的Yule 's无意义相关统计量的渐近一致性、渐近正态性和cram中度偏差。作为应用,证明了两个Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程之间独立性的假设检验的全局和局部幂在指数速率下接近于1。通过仿真实验验证了理论结果。此外,实证应用说明了上述统计量和渐近理论的有效性。主要方法包括偏差不等式和多重Wiener-Itô积分的cram中度偏差和渐近分析技术。
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引用次数: 0
Detection of suspicious areas in non-stationary Gaussian fields and locally averaged non-Gaussian linear fields 非平稳高斯场和局部平均非高斯线性场可疑区域的检测
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106273
Ansgar Steland
Gumbel-type extreme value theory for arrays of discrete Gaussian random fields is studied and applied to some classes of discretely sampled approximately locally self-similar Gaussian processes, especially micro-noise models. Non-Gaussian discrete random fields are handled by considering the maximum of local averages of raw data or residuals. Based on some novel weak approximations with rate for (weighted) partial sums for spatial linear processes including results under a class of local alternatives, sufficient conditions for Gumbel-type asymptotics of maximum-type detection rules to detect peaks and suspicious areas in image data and, more generally, random field data, are established. The results are examined by simulations and illustrated by analyzing CT brain image data.
研究了离散高斯随机场阵列的gumbel型极值理论,并将其应用于若干类离散采样的近似局部自相似高斯过程,特别是微噪声模型。非高斯离散随机场是通过考虑原始数据局部平均值或残差的最大值来处理的。基于空间线性过程的一些新的弱近似(加权)部分和率,包括在一类局部选择下的结果,建立了最大型检测规则的gumbel型渐近性的充分条件,以检测图像数据中的峰值和可疑区域,更一般地说,是随机场数据。结果通过仿真验证,并通过分析CT脑图像数据加以说明。
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引用次数: 0
The two-sample location shift model under log-concavity 对数凹性下的双样本位置移位模型
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106272
Riddhiman Saha , Priyam Das , Nilanjana Laha
In this paper, we consider the two-sample location shift model, a classic semiparametric model introduced by Stein(1956). This model is known for its adaptive nature, enabling nonparametric estimation with full parametric efficiency. Existing nonparametric estimators of the location shift often depend on external tuning parameters, which restricts their practical applicability Vanet al. (1998). We demonstrate that introducing an additional assumption of log-concavity on the underlying density can alleviate the need for tuning parameters. We propose a one step estimator for location shift estimation, utilizing log-concave density estimation techniques to facilitate tuning-free estimation of the efficient influence function. While we use a truncated version of the one step estimator to theoretically demonstrate adaptivity, our simulations indicate that the one step estimators perform best with zero truncation, eliminating the need for tuning during practical implementation. Notably, the efficiency of the truncated one step estimators steadily increases as the truncation level decreases, and those with low levels of truncation exhibit nearly identical empirical performance to the estimator with zero truncation. We apply our method to investigate the location shift in the distribution of Spanish annual household incomes following the 2008 financial crisis.
本文考虑Stein(1956)提出的经典半参数模型——双样本位置移位模型。该模型以其自适应特性而闻名,使非参数估计具有充分的参数效率。现有的位置移位的非参数估计往往依赖于外部调谐参数,这限制了它们的实际适用性(Vanet al., 1998)。我们证明了在底层密度上引入一个额外的对数凹性假设可以减轻对参数调优的需要。我们提出了一种单步估计器用于位置移位估计,利用对数凹密度估计技术来促进有效影响函数的无调谐估计。虽然我们使用截断版本的一步估计器来从理论上证明自适应性,但我们的模拟表明,一步估计器在零截断时表现最佳,从而消除了在实际实现期间调优的需要。值得注意的是,截断的一步估计器的效率随着截断水平的降低而稳步提高,并且截断水平低的估计器与零截断的估计器表现出几乎相同的经验性能。我们运用我们的方法来调查2008年金融危机后西班牙家庭年收入分布的区位转移。
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引用次数: 0
On cross-validated estimation of skew normal model 斜正态模型的交叉验证估计
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2025.106271
Jian Zhang , Tong Wang
Skew normal model suffers from inferential drawbacks, namely singular Fisher information when it is close to symmetry and diverging of maximum likelihood estimation. This causes a large variation of the conventional maximum likelihood estimate. To address the above drawbacks, Azzalini and Arellano-Valle (2013) introduced maximum penalised likelihood estimation (MPLE) by subtracting a penalty function from the log-likelihood function with a pre-specified penalty coefficient. Here, we propose a cross-validated MPLE to improve its performance when the underlying model is close to symmetry. We develop a theory for MPLE, where an asymptotic rate for the cross-validated penalty coefficient is derived. We further show that the proposed cross-validated MPLE is asymptotically efficient under certain conditions. In simulation studies and a real data application, we demonstrate that the proposed estimator can outperform the conventional MPLE when the model is close to symmetry.
偏正态模型在接近对称和极大似然估计发散时存在奇异费雪信息的推理缺陷。这导致传统的最大似然估计有很大的变化。为了解决上述缺点,Azzalini和Arellano-Valle(2013)引入了最大惩罚似然估计(MPLE),通过从具有预先指定的惩罚系数的对数似然函数中减去惩罚函数。在这里,我们提出了一种交叉验证的MPLE,以提高其在底层模型接近对称时的性能。我们发展了一个MPLE理论,其中得到了交叉验证惩罚系数的渐近率。我们进一步证明了所提出的交叉验证MPLE在一定条件下是渐近有效的。在仿真研究和实际数据应用中,我们证明了该估计器在模型接近对称时优于传统的MPLE估计器。
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引用次数: 0
Model averaging prediction for survival data with time-dependent effects 具有时间依赖效应的生存数据的模型平均预测
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2024.106260
Xiaoguang Wang , Rong Hu , Mengyu Li
It is a fundamental task to predict patients’ survival outcomes in clinical research. As an extension of the Cox proportional hazards model, the time-dependent coefficient Cox model is typically utilized for time-to-event data with time-dependent effects. When the number of covariates is large, the curse of dimensionality emerges for most existing methods. To overcome the limitation and improve predictive performance, a semiparametric model averaging approach is proposed for the time-dependent coefficient Cox model. We introduce a novel criterion to estimate model weights and demonstrate its theoretical properties. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to compare the proposed technique with existing competitive methods. A real clinical data set is also analyzed to illustrate the advantages of our approach.
预测患者的生存结局是临床研究的一项基本任务。作为Cox比例风险模型的扩展,时间依赖系数Cox模型通常用于具有时间依赖效应的时间-事件数据。当协变量数量较大时,大多数现有方法都会出现维数问题。为了克服时间依赖系数Cox模型的局限性,提高预测性能,提出了一种半参数模型平均方法。我们引入了一种新的估计模型权重的准则,并证明了它的理论性质。进行了广泛的仿真研究,以比较所提出的技术与现有的竞争方法。一个真实的临床数据集也被分析来说明我们的方法的优点。
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引用次数: 0
Marginally constrained nonparametric Bayesian inference through Gaussian processes 基于高斯过程的边际约束非参数贝叶斯推理
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2024.106261
Bingjing Tang , Vinayak Rao
Nonparametric Bayesian models are used routinely as flexible and powerful models of complex data. In many situations, an applied scientist may have additional informative beliefs about the data distribution of interest, for instance, the distribution of its mean or a subset components. This often will not be compatible with the nonparametric prior. An important challenge is then to incorporate this partial prior belief into nonparametric Bayesian models. In this paper, we are motivated by settings where practitioners have additional distributional information about a subset of the coordinates of the observations being modeled. Our approach links this problem to that of conditional density modeling. Our main idea is a novel constrained Bayesian model, based on a perturbation of a parametric distribution with a transformed Gaussian process prior on the perturbation function. We develop a corresponding posterior sampling method based on data augmentation. We illustrate the efficacy of our proposed constrained nonparametric Bayesian model in a variety of real-world scenarios including modeling environmental and earthquake data.
非参数贝叶斯模型通常被用作复杂数据的灵活而强大的模型。在许多情况下,应用科学家可能对感兴趣的数据分布有额外的信息信念,例如,其平均值或子集组件的分布。这通常与非参数先验不兼容。然后,一个重要的挑战是将这种部分先验信念纳入非参数贝叶斯模型。在本文中,我们的动机来自于这样的设置,即实践者拥有关于正在建模的观测坐标子集的额外分布信息。我们的方法将这个问题与条件密度建模的问题联系起来。我们的主要思想是一种新的约束贝叶斯模型,它基于参数分布的扰动,在扰动函数上有一个转换的高斯过程。提出了一种基于数据增强的后验抽样方法。我们说明了我们提出的约束非参数贝叶斯模型在各种现实世界场景中的有效性,包括建模环境和地震数据。
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引用次数: 0
Deterministic construction methods for asymmetrical uniform designs 不对称均匀设计的确定性构造方法
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2024.106262
Liuping Hu , Kashinath Chatterjee , Jianhui Ning , Hong Qin
Asymmetrical (mixed-level) uniform designs are useful for both computer and physical experiments. However, constructing these designs is often challenging due to their complex asymmetrical structure. In this paper, we propose novel methods for constructing uniform designs with mixed two-, three-, and four/nine-levels. Our construction methods are deterministic, allowing us to circumvent the complexity associated with stochastic algorithms. We evaluate uniformity using the wrap-around L2- and Lee discrepancies. We establish useful analytic relationships between uniformity and aberration, and derive new general lower bounds for discrepancies that are tighter than those currently available in the literature. These new benchmarks can effectively measure the uniformity of asymmetrical designs. Additionally, we provide examples demonstrating the efficacy of our construction methods and the relevance of the newly obtained lower bounds. Finally, through simulations, we show that the designs produced using our methods perform well in constructing statistical surrogate models.
不对称(混合水平)均匀设计对计算机和物理实验都很有用。然而,由于其复杂的不对称结构,构建这些设计通常具有挑战性。在本文中,我们提出了一种新的方法来构建混合二、三、四/九层的均匀设计。我们的构造方法是确定性的,允许我们规避与随机算法相关的复杂性。我们使用环绕L2-和Lee差异来评估均匀性。我们在均匀性和像差之间建立了有用的分析关系,并推导出比目前文献中可用的更严格的差异的新一般下界。这些新的基准可以有效地测量非对称设计的均匀性。此外,我们还提供了一些例子来证明我们的构造方法的有效性和新获得的下界的相关性。最后,通过仿真,我们表明使用我们的方法产生的设计在构建统计代理模型方面表现良好。
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引用次数: 0
Maximum likelihood estimation of short panel autoregressive models with flexible form of fixed effects 具有灵活形式固定效应的短面板自回归模型的最大似然估计
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2024.106252
Kazuhiko Hayakawa, Boyan Yin
This paper proposes the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator for a short panel autoregressive model with a flexible form of observed factors as well as unknown interactive fixed effects. We show that the ML estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed as the number of cross-sectional units increases with the number of time periods being fixed. It should be noted that this asymptotic result holds uniformly for the autoregressive coefficient less than, equal to, or greater than one, in sharp contrast to existing estimators. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the ML estimator has desirable finite sample properties.
本文提出了具有柔性观测因子形式和未知交互固定效应的短面板自回归模型的最大似然估计量。我们证明了ML估计量是一致的,并且是渐近正态分布的,因为截面单元的数量随着时间段的数量固定而增加。应该注意的是,对于小于、等于或大于1的自回归系数,这个渐近结果一致成立,与现有的估计量形成鲜明对比。蒙特卡罗仿真结果表明,该估计器具有良好的有限样本特性。
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引用次数: 0
Outcome dependent subsampling divide and conquer in generalized linear models for massive data 海量数据广义线性模型的结果依赖子抽样分治方法
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2024.106253
Jie Yin , Jieli Ding , Changming Yang
In order to break the constraints and barriers caused by limited computing power in processing massive datasets, we propose an outcome dependent subsampling divide and conquer strategy in this paper. The proposed strategy can process data on multiple blocks in parallel and concentrate the computing resources of each block on regions with the most information. We develop a distributed statistical inference method and propose a computation-efficient algorithm in the generalized linear models for massive data. The proposed method only need to preserve some summary statistics from each data block and then use them to directly construct the proposed estimator. The asymptotic properties of the proposed method are established. Simulation studies and real data analysis are conducted to illustrate the merits of the proposed method.
为了打破计算能力有限对海量数据集处理的限制和障碍,本文提出了一种结果依赖的子抽样分治策略。该策略可以并行处理多个块上的数据,并将每个块的计算资源集中在信息最多的区域上。本文提出了一种分布式统计推理方法,并在海量数据的广义线性模型中提出了一种计算效率高的算法。该方法只需要从每个数据块中保留一些汇总统计信息,然后使用它们直接构造所提出的估计器。建立了该方法的渐近性。仿真研究和实际数据分析表明了该方法的优越性。
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引用次数: 0
Nonparametric estimators of inequality curves and inequality measures 不等式曲线的非参数估计和不等式测度
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jspi.2024.106251
Alicja Jokiel-Rokita, Sylwester Pia̧tek
Classical inequality curves and inequality measures are defined for distributions with finite mean value. Moreover, their empirical counterparts are not resistant to outliers. For these reasons, quantile versions of known inequality curves such as the Lorenz, Bonferroni, Zenga and D curves, and quantile versions of inequality measures such as the Gini, Bonferroni, Zenga and D indices have been proposed in the literature. We propose various nonparametric estimators of quantile versions of inequality curves and inequality measures, prove their consistency, and compare their accuracy in a simulation study. We also give examples of the use of quantile versions of inequality measures in real data analysis.
经典的不等式曲线和不等式测度是针对有限均值分布定义的。此外,他们的经验对应物对异常值没有抵抗力。由于这些原因,文献中已经提出了已知不平等曲线的分位数版本,如Lorenz, Bonferroni, Zenga和D曲线,以及不平等测量的分位数版本,如基尼指数,Bonferroni指数,Zenga指数和D指数。我们提出了不等式曲线和不等式测度的分位数版本的各种非参数估计,证明了它们的一致性,并在模拟研究中比较了它们的准确性。我们还给出了在实际数据分析中使用分位数版本的不平等度量的例子。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference
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