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X-band radar as a tool for monitoring natural coastal behaviour and potential development impacts x波段雷达作为监测海岸自然行为和潜在发展影响的工具
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2018-09-27 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2018.1526462
S. Wallbridge, T. Dolphin, C. Taylor
ABSTRACT This paper reports ongoing exploration of X-band radar as an operational monitoring tool for coastal infrastructure development. Data have been continually gathered since 2013, helping a major energy developer (EDF Energy) better understand shoreline processes at a proposed new nuclear power station at Sizewell, UK, to inform considerations of engineering design. The continual coverage provided by the radar enables greater confidence in defining natural variability and therefore enhanced assurance to regulators of the integrity or suitability of the site. Sizewell is located on a low-lying, soft coast with at least 1000 years of recorded (net) retreat. The commercial X-band system deployed calculates hydrodynamic data (suitable for managing navigation and vessel access), but this paper illustrates using radar images to establish the pre-construction baseline geomorphic behaviour of the nearshore, including a steep pebbly beach-face, two shore-parallel sub-tidal sandbars, and a large sandbank, 2 km offshore, which significantly affects nearshore hydrodynamics. Data illustrate baseline geomorphic behaviours that were previously unobserved, despite beach profiling records over 20 years. The temporal and spatial scales of natural changes are compared with the potential impacts of the development, including dredging (and spoil deposition) for navigation channel maintenance and the presence of nearshore structures, all of which would affect shoreline processes and so would need to be monitored (and any impacts managed) as development proceeds. Finally, the paper considers where the utility of X-band radar as an operational monitoring tool may surmount the barriers that have limited its uptake outside of academic/research circles.
本文报道了正在进行的x波段雷达作为沿海基础设施发展的操作监测工具的探索。自2013年以来,数据一直在不断收集,帮助主要能源开发商(EDF energy)更好地了解英国Sizewell拟议中的新核电站的海岸线过程,为工程设计提供参考。雷达提供的持续覆盖使人们更有信心确定自然变化,从而增强了对场地完整性或适宜性的监管保证。Sizewell位于一个低洼、柔软的海岸上,至少有1000年的撤退记录。部署的商用x波段系统计算水动力数据(适用于管理导航和船舶访问),但本文说明了使用雷达图像来建立近岸的施工前基线地貌行为,包括陡峭的卵石海滩面,两个海岸平行的潮汐下沙洲,以及离岸2公里的大型沙洲,这对近岸的水动力有重大影响。尽管有20多年的海滩剖面记录,但数据显示了以前未被观察到的基线地貌行为。将自然变化的时间和空间尺度与开发的潜在影响进行比较,包括疏浚(和废土沉积)以维护航道和近岸结构的存在,所有这些都会影响海岸线的过程,因此需要在开发过程中进行监测(并管理任何影响)。最后,本文考虑了x波段雷达作为一种作战监测工具在哪些方面可以克服限制其在学术/研究界以外应用的障碍。
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引用次数: 1
Mapping of currents off the northwestern Iberian coast with the Regional Ocean Modelling System 用区域海洋模拟系统绘制伊比利亚西北海岸的海流图
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2018-09-19 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2018.1522717
T. Costa, Laudenor Pereira, M. Marta‐Almeida, Carlos Soares
ABSTRACT The structure and the temporal variability of modelled velocity fields at different depths are studied for the years 2002–2004 in the Northwestern Iberian Margin. The currents are simulated with the Regional Ocean Modeling System in a high resolution that is compatible with the input data from the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis and the atmospheric forcing from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, as well as with the tidal forcing from the TPXO Global Tide Solution. After an initial validation of the numerical model results, the velocity field is mapped to identify the region's main flow characteristics and its seasonal and interannual variability, in order to find areas that have strong currents, which could be of interest for exploring tidal stream energy. There are three main regions within the numerical domain, at different levels, where velocity values reach higher values than their surroundings: (i) located at the surface flowing south around 9.5°W, related to the summer Upwelling Jet; (ii) located further offshore near the Galician Bank, flowing north at deeper water levels which is visible during most part of the year and; (iii) within Ría de Arousa, also visible all year round.
研究了2002-2004年伊比利亚西北边缘不同深度速度场的结构和时间变化。区域海洋模拟系统以高分辨率模拟海流,该系统与HYbrid坐标海洋模式再分析的输入数据、气候预报系统再分析的大气强迫以及TPXO全球潮汐解决方案的潮汐强迫兼容。在对数值模型结果进行初步验证后,绘制速度场图,以确定该地区的主要流特征及其季节和年际变化,以便找到具有强流的区域,这些区域可能对探索潮汐流能量有兴趣。数值域中存在3个不同水平的速度值高于周围的主要区域:(1)位于9.5°W左右的南向地表,与夏季上升流急流有关;(ii)位于离海岸较远的加利西亚海岸附近,以较深的水位向北流动,在一年中的大部分时间都可以看到;(iii)在Ría de awaka内,也全年可见。
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引用次数: 6
Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report 哥白尼海事服务海洋状况报告
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2018-08-24 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2018.1489208
K. von Schuckmann, P. Le Traon, N. Smith, A. Pascual, P. Brasseur, K. Fennel, S. Djavidnia, S. Aaboe, E. Fanjul, E. Autret, L. Axell, Roland Aznar, M. Benincasa, A. Bentamy, F. Boberg, R. Bourdallé-Badie, B. Nardelli, V. Brando, C. Bricaud, L. Breivik, R. Brewin, A. Capet, Adrien Ceschin, S. Ciliberti, G. Cossarini, M. de Alfonso, Álvaro de Pascual Collar, Jos de Kloe, J. Deshayes, C. Desportes, M. Drévillon, Y. Drillet, R. Droghei, C. Dubois, Owen Embury, H. Etienne, C. Fratianni, J. G. Lafuente, M. Sotillo, G. Garric, F. Gasparin, R. Gerin, S. Good, J. Gourrion, M. Grégoire, E. Greiner, S. Guinehut, E. Gutknecht, F. Hernandez, Olga Hernandez, J. Høyer, L. Jackson, Simon Jandt, S. Josey, M. Juzà, J. Kennedy, Z. Kokkini, G. Korres, M. Kõuts, P. Lagemaa, T. Lavergne, B. Le Cann, J. Legeais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, B. Levier, V. Lien, I. Maljutenko, F. Manzano, M. Marcos, V. Marinova, S. Masina, E. Mauri, M. Mayer, A. Melet, F. Mélin, B. Meyssignac, M. Monier, Malte Müller, S. Mulet, C. Naranjo, G. Notarstefano, 
Si listano le singole sezioni in cui S.Simoncelli ha contribuito. Ogni sezione puo' essere citata separatamente dal report 1.1 Ocean temperature and salinity S. Mulet, B. Buongiorno Nardelli, S. Good, A. Pisano, E. Greiner, M. Monier E. Autret, L. Axell, F. Boberg, S. Ciliberti, M. Drevillon, R. Droghei, O. Embury, J. Gourrion, J. Hoyer, M. Juza, J. Kennedy, B. Lemieux-Dudon, E. Peneva, R. Reid, S. Simoncelli, A. Storto, J. Tinker, K. von Schuckmann, S. L. Wakelin. 2.1. Ocean heat content ..K. von Schuckmann, A. Storto, S. Simoncelli, R. P. Raj, A.Samuelsen, A. de Pascual Collar, M. Garcia Sotillo, T Szerkely, M. Mayer, K. A. Peterson, H. Zuo, G. Garric, M. Monier. 3.4 Water mass formation processes in the Mediterranean Sea over the past 30 years S. Simoncelli, Nadia Pinardi, C. Fratianni, C. Dubois, G. Notarstefano. 3.5 Ventilation of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water through the Strait of Gibraltar S. Sammartino, J. Garcia Lafuente, C. Naranjo, S. Simoncelli. 4.4 Unusual salinity pattern in the South Adriatic Sea in 2016 Z. Kokkini, G. Notarstefano P-M Poulain, E. Mauri, R. Gerin, S. Simoncelli
它列出了S.Simoncelli贡献的各个部分。可分开报告提到每节1。1和S . salinity Mulet海洋温度,B .你好Nardelli, S . Good A . E .号文件,M . Monier E . L . Axell, Autret F . S . Ciliberti博格,M的,或Embury, J . R . Droghei Gourrion, J . M . Juza,霍耶J . Kennedy), B . Lemieux-Dudon, E . R . Peneva, Reid, A . S . Simoncelli退步,J . K . von Schuckmann Tinker, S . L . Wakelin。2 . 1。海洋热内容K。von Schuckmann,出了问题,S . Simoncelli, R . P . Raj,萨缪尔森。A . de Pascual Collar, M . Garcia Sotillo, T Szerkely, M . Mayer, K . A . Peterson, M . H . G . Garric, Zuo Monier。3.4 - Water大众formation - the past 30岁以上在the Sea地中海Nadia Pinardi, C . S . Simoncelli长达两年Fratianni C . Dubois, G . Notarstefano。3。5 Ventilation of the Deep西部地中海水通过the Strait of S .直布罗陀Sammartino J . Garcia - C。纳兰霍,2016年亚得里亚海南部非常规盐度模式Z. Kokkini, G. Notarstefano P-M Poulain, E. Mauri, R. Gerin, S. Simoncelli
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引用次数: 130
Assessing the impact of SAR altimetry for global ocean analysis and forecasting 评估SAR测高对全球海洋分析和预报的影响
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2018-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2018.1505028
S. Verrier, P. Le Traon, E. Rémy, J. Lellouche
ABSTRACT Satellite altimetry provides essential sea level observations to constrain ocean analysis and forecasting systems. New generation of nadir altimeters now provides enhanced capability thanks to a SAR mode that allows reducing the 1 Hz (7 km) measurement noise level from about 3 to 1 cm RMS. A first assessment of the impact of SAR altimetry for global ocean analysis and forecasting is carried out using Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) with the global Mercator Ocean high resolution 1/12° system. OSSEs are used to quantify the impact of assimilating multiple altimeter missions with and without a SAR mode. A simple twin experiment set up that only takes into account initialisation errors and impact of altimeter random noise is used. Results are analysed in high eddy energy regions where initialisation errors are the most important ones. Both sea surface height and surface velocity analyses and 7-day forecasts are improved. Compared to conventional altimetry, SAR altimetry sea surface height variance errors for both analyses and forecasts are typically reduced by 20% in western boundary currents. This suggests that use of SAR multiple altimeter missions with high-resolution models will significantly improve the capability of the ocean analysis and forecasting systems in the near future.
卫星测高为约束海洋分析和预报系统提供了必要的海平面观测。由于SAR模式,新一代的最低点高度计现在提供了增强的功能,可以将1 Hz (7 km)的测量噪声水平从大约3到1 cm RMS。利用全球墨卡托海洋高分辨率1/12°系统的观测系统模拟实验(OSSEs),首次评估了SAR测高对全球海洋分析和预报的影响。osse用于量化同化有或没有SAR模式的多个高度计任务的影响。采用了一个简单的双实验装置,只考虑了初始化误差和高度计随机噪声的影响。结果分析在高涡能区,其中初始化误差是最重要的。海面高度和海面速度分析和7天预报都得到了改进。与传统的测高方法相比,SAR测高方法在分析和预报海面高度时的误差通常比西部边界流减少20%。这表明,在不久的将来,使用具有高分辨率模式的SAR多高度计任务将显著提高海洋分析和预报系统的能力。
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引用次数: 8
Detailed investigation of the three-dimensional structure of a mesoscale cold eddy in the Kuroshio extension region* 黑潮延伸区中尺度冷涡三维结构的详细研究*
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2018-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2018.1505069
Chen Xi, Hu Dong, Mao Kefeng, Li Yan
ABSTRACT The Kuroshio Extension Region (KER) has the most active oceanic mesoscale eddies within the North Pacific Ocean, nevertheless, there is a lack of observations on the three-dimensional (3D) fine structure of these eddies. Satellite altimeter data and underway observations were used in combination to conduct a fine-scale characterisation of the 3D thermohaline structure and circulation of a mesoscale cyclonic eddy within the KER during June, 2014. The results showed that isotherms in the six in situ sections consistently exhibited enhanced upward bending and negative temperature anomalies were distinct. At locations closer to the centre of the eddy, the negative temperature anomalies became more significant and the intensity of the cold core became more pronounced. The isohalines also trended upwards, with the upper and lower levels having negative and positive anomalies, respectively. The isohalines at the various layers similarly exhibited a clear eddy-like structure from the subsurface down to 1,000 m. Both the actual flow field measured by the Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) and the geostrophic flow field based on thermohaline data indicated a significant asymmetric cyclonic circulation structure. By comparing with the in situ data, the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is capable of depicting the mesoscale eddy while the magnitude and eddy location deviate from in situ observations.
北太平洋黑潮延伸区(Kuroshio Extension Region, KER)拥有最活跃的海洋中尺度涡旋,但目前缺乏对这些涡旋三维精细结构的观测。2014年6月,利用卫星高度计数据和海上观测资料,对克尔地区一个中尺度气旋涡旋的三维温盐结构和环流进行了精细表征。结果表明,6个原位剖面的等温线一致表现出增强的向上弯曲,负温度异常明显。在靠近涡旋中心的位置,负温度异常变得更加显著,冷核的强度变得更加明显。等盐线也呈上升趋势,上层和下层分别有负异常和正异常。各层的等盐线从地下至1000米均表现出明显的涡状结构。ADCP实测流场和基于温盐数据的地转流场均显示出明显的不对称气旋环流结构。混合坐标海洋模式(HYCOM)能较好地描述中尺度涡旋,但涡旋的大小和位置与原位观测存在一定偏差。
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引用次数: 5
On extracting high-frequency tidal variability from HF radar data in the northwestern Bay of Bengal 利用孟加拉湾西北部高频雷达资料提取高频潮汐变率的研究
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2018-06-05 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2018.1479571
S. Mandal, S. Sil, A. Gangopadhyay, T. Murty, D. Swain
ABSTRACT First results from a systematic harmonic analysis of HF radar (HFR) derived ocean surface current observations in the northwestern Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 2010 is presented. The daily-averaged HFR currents compared reasonably well to composite daily surface currents from multiple satellites with correlation coefficient of 0.90 (0.69) for zonal (meridional) component. A set of sequential daily currents demonstrated sustained northward (southward) alongshore flow during February–April (October–December) with peak magnitude of about 1.8 (1.2) m/s. On tidal scales, harmonic analyses of zonal and meridional components at nearshore and offshore locations indicated that among semi-diurnal tidal components, M2 dominates over S2 and N2; time-scales of which were verified from available coastal tide gauges nearby. Amplitudes of semi-major axis for M2 and K1 tidal ellipses are 7.16 (6.13) and 4.02 (3.30) cm/s in nearshore (offshore) location indicating relatively stronger tidal currents in nearshore location. Finally, significant shallow water constituents S4, MS4 and M3 (M4, 2SM6 and M6) at nearshore (offshore) location are identified, which are due to non-linear interaction of tidal currents with bathymetry. Both semi-diurnal and shallow water tidal currents show dominance along isobaths in offshore region, which turn progressively across-isobath as they move nearshore.
本文首次对2010年孟加拉湾西北部短波雷达(HFR)海面流观测数据进行了系统谐波分析。日平均HFR流与多颗卫星的复合日地面流比较良好,纬向(经向)分量的相关系数为0.90(0.69)。一组连续的日流在2 - 4月(10 - 12月)期间显示持续的北(南)岸流,峰值幅度约为1.8(1.2)米/秒。在潮汐尺度上,近岸和近海纬向和经向分量的调和分析表明,在半日潮分量中,M2大于S2和N2;时间尺度是由附近可用的海岸潮汐计核实的。近岸(近海)位置M2和K1潮汐椭圆半长轴振幅分别为7.16(6.13)和4.02 (3.30)cm/s,表明近岸位置潮流相对较强。结果表明,近岸(近海)浅水组分S4、MS4和M3 (M4、2SM6和M6)具有重要意义,是潮流与水深测量非线性相互作用的结果。近岸地区半日流和浅水潮流在等深线上均占主导地位,并在近岸地区逐渐转向横越等深线。
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引用次数: 19
Validation of a wave forecast system for Galway Bay 高威湾海浪预报系统的验证
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2018-05-13 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2018.1470454
A. Bento, N. Salvação, C. Guedes Soares
ABSTRACT An operational wave forecast system for the area of Galway Bay is presented. Three numerical models are implemented: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), Wavewatch III (WWIII) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN). GFS (Global Forecast System) winds, from NCEP (National Centres for Environmental Prediction), are used to force the WWIII model, while WRF winds are used to force the SWAN model. Bathymetries for WWIII and SWAN were obtained from NOAA’s GEODAS (Geophysical Data System) data base and from GEBCO (General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans), hosted by BODC. The wave generation model, WWIII, is used to simulate waves for the whole North Atlantic, whereas the SWAN model runs for the Irish west coast, with a nested grid for Galway Bay. Forecast products of 7 days are produced daily, with a warm up of 4 days. The validations of the forecast system were made for both wind and wave parameters with data from buoys located in the Irish coast and inside Galway Bay. Comparisons in the time domain as well as a statistical analysis were performed. Overall, the wave forecast system gave good results closely reproducing the real data, with a low error.
摘要:介绍了高威湾地区的海浪预报系统。采用了三种数值模式:Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)、Wavewatch III (wiii)和simulation Waves Nearshore (SWAN)。来自NCEP(国家环境预测中心)的GFS(全球预报系统)风被用来驱动第三次世界大战模型,而WRF风被用来驱动SWAN模型。第三次世界大战和SWAN的水深测量数据来自NOAA的地球物理数据系统(GEODAS)数据库和由BODC托管的GEBCO(海洋一般水深图)。第三次世界大战的波浪产生模型用于模拟整个北大西洋的波浪,而SWAN模型用于模拟爱尔兰西海岸,并为戈尔韦湾设置了嵌套网格。每天预报7天,预热4天。预报系统的风和浪参数是用位于爱尔兰海岸和戈尔韦湾内的浮标的数据进行验证的。在时域上进行了比较和统计分析。总体而言,该系统的预报结果较好,与实际数据接近,误差较小。
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引用次数: 6
Calibration of a marine floating litter transport model 海洋漂浮垃圾运输模型的校正
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2018-05-07 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2018.1470892
Diego Pereiro, C. Souto, J. Gago
ABSTRACT Predicting the transport of marine floating litter requires a detailed understanding of the processes involved in the dispersion of floating materials in the ocean. The restraining effect of a near-coastal boundary or shallow bottom topography may affect the drift response to local wind forcing. The aim of this work is to develop a particle-tracking model for the north-west Iberian waters that allows for spatial variations in the effect of winds on the transport of marine floating litter. Observational data from 23 drifters were used, in conjunction with wind and ocean current data from atmospheric and ocean models. The drifter locations were grouped into three separate zones based on the bathymetry and the orientation of the coastline. Response matrices for each of these areas were computed using a 2-D vector regression approach. The maximum drift response to local wind forcing is alongshore in inner shelf waters, whereas an isotropic drift response to winds is observed in outer shelf waters. The wind drag coefficient ranges from 0.5 × 10−2 to 1.2 × 10−2, depending both on the wind direction and the drifter position.
预测海洋漂浮垃圾的运输需要对海洋中漂浮物质分散的过程有详细的了解。近海岸边界或浅底地形的抑制作用可能影响局地风强迫的漂移响应。这项工作的目的是为伊比利亚西北部水域开发一个粒子跟踪模型,该模型允许风对海洋漂浮垃圾运输影响的空间变化。研究使用了23艘漂流船的观测数据,以及大气和海洋模型的风和洋流数据。根据水深测量和海岸线的方向,漂浮物的位置被分为三个独立的区域。使用二维向量回归方法计算每个这些区域的响应矩阵。对局地风强迫的最大漂移响应是在大陆架内部水域的沿岸,而在大陆架外部水域观察到对风的各向同性漂移响应。风阻系数随风向和漂船位置的变化在0.5 × 10−2 ~ 1.2 × 10−2之间。
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引用次数: 21
Comparing ADCP data collected during a seismic survey off the coast of Newfoundland with analysis data from the CONCEPTS operational ocean model 将纽芬兰海岸地震调查期间收集的ADCP数据与CONCEPTS操作海洋模型的分析数据进行比较
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2018-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2018.1465337
L. Zedel, Yanan Wang, F. Davidson, Jinshan Xu
ABSTRACT Oceanographic data collected during seismic surveys have potential to provide a significant resource for oceanographic research. In this paper, acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data collected during the Chevron 2011 North East Grand Banks survey are analysed. The survey took place in a 32,000-km2 area in the North East Grand banks, Orphan Basin region in water depths ranging from 100 to 1500 m and notably, the survey area is crossed by the offshore branch of the Labrador current. Data quality is evaluated by comparing velocities before and after ship turns where we find no significant velocity bias. The ADCP data are compared to data products from the CONCEPTS global ice ocean prediction system operational ocean model. ADCP data and model output agree qualitatively with the model reproducing the long-term fluctuations seen in the data. At higher frequencies between 0.3 and 2.0 cycles/day, the model tends to under-represent the current velocities by about 20%, but the spectral peak associated with inertial oscillations is well resolved. Comparisons of drift track predictions based on the ADCP observations and model output show rms displacement differences of 8 km after 24 h and ∼10 km separations for drift tracks with length under 50 km.
在地震调查中收集的海洋数据有可能为海洋学研究提供重要资源。本文对雪佛龙2011年东北大浅滩勘探期间收集的声学多普勒电流剖面仪(ADCP)数据进行了分析。该调查在孤儿盆地地区东北大浅滩32,000平方公里的区域进行,水深从100到1500米不等,值得注意的是,该调查区域被拉布拉多洋流的海上分支穿过。通过比较船舶转弯前后的速度来评估数据质量,我们发现没有明显的速度偏差。ADCP数据与CONCEPTS全球海冰海洋预测系统业务海洋模式的数据产品进行了比较。ADCP数据和模型输出在质量上与再现数据中看到的长期波动的模型一致。在0.3和2.0周期/天之间的较高频率下,该模型倾向于低估约20%的当前速度,但与惯性振荡相关的谱峰被很好地解决了。基于ADCP观测和模型输出的漂移轨迹预测的比较表明,对于长度小于50 km的漂移轨迹,在24 h和~ 10 km间隔后的均方根位移差异为8 km。
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引用次数: 6
Modification of a linear regression-based multi-model super-ensemble technique and its application in forecasting of wave height during extreme weather conditions 基于线性回归的多模式超集合技术的改进及其在极端天气波高预报中的应用
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2018.1438341
S. Majumder, T. M. Balakrishnan Nair, K. Sandhya, P. G. Remya, P. Sirisha
ABSTRACT In this study, we focus on the improvement of wave forecast of the Indian coastal region using a multi-model ensemble technique. Generally, a number of wave forecast are available for the same region from different wave models. The main objective of this study is to merge the wave forecasts available at Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services from different wave models to obtain an improved wave forecast using a multi-model super-ensemble method [Krishnamurti et al. 1999. Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model super-ensemble. Science. 285:1548–1550] during extreme weather conditions and to modify Krishnamurthy’s techniques and validate with observations for a better prediction. Here, Multi-grid WAVEWATCH III, Simulating WAves Nearshore and MIKE 21 Spectral Waves are used for the generation of wave forecast. We propose a modification of Krishnamurthy’s linear regression-based ensemble model. By using both of these ensemble techniques, we perform a multi-model ensemble forecasting of significant wave height up to 24-h lead time in the Indian Ocean for three different cyclones (Nilofar, Hudhud and Phailin) and during the southwest monsoon. A comparison of ensemble predictions and individual model predictions with the actual observations showed generally satisfactory performance of the chosen tools. At the time of severe cyclones such as Hudhud and Phailin, our modified technique shows significantly better prediction than the linear regression-based ensemble technique.
本文主要研究了多模式集合技术对印度沿海地区海浪预报的改进。一般来说,在同一区域,不同的波浪模式可以提供多种波浪预报。本研究的主要目的是合并印度国家海洋信息服务中心提供的来自不同波浪模式的海浪预报,以使用多模式超级集合方法获得改进的海浪预报[Krishnamurti等,1999]。从多模式超级集合改进天气和季节气候预报。科学,285:1548-1550]在极端天气条件下,修改Krishnamurthy的技术,并通过观察来验证更好的预测。本文采用多网格WAVEWATCH III、近岸模拟波和MIKE 21谱波进行波浪预报。本文提出了对Krishnamurthy基于线性回归的集合模型的一种修正。通过使用这两种集合技术,我们对印度洋三个不同气旋(Nilofar, Hudhud和Phailin)和西南季风期间的显著波高进行了多模式集合预报,预报时间长达24小时。集合预测和单个模型预测与实际观测结果的比较表明,所选工具的性能总体上令人满意。在强气旋如“哈德哈德”和“菲林”时,我们的改进技术的预测效果明显优于基于线性回归的集合技术。
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引用次数: 5
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Journal of Operational Oceanography
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