Pub Date : 2019-09-03DOI: 10.1080/1755876x.2019.1658566
M. Jishad, R. Sarangi, S. Ratheesh, Syed Moosa Ali, Rashmi Sharma
ABSTRACT A new conceptual framework, based on ocean bio-physical observations from different satellites, has been proposed to track fishing ground parameters to identify Potential Fishing Zones (PFZ) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The proposed technique also attempts to provide a short-term forecast based on feature propagation, even under cloudy conditions. The current study has been carried out to understand the link between possible fish catch availability and satellite-derived parameters such as chlorophyll concentration, sea surface temperature, sea-level anomaly, ocean surface currents and wind vectors. Net Ekman transport obtained from the upfront and downfront components of the wind relative to the frontal direction provides valuable information on the forecast of PFZ regions and its possible shift. Comparison of the identified PFZs with limited in situ fish catch data proves that the suggested approach holds the promise in improved monitoring of possible fish catch locations. The study provides a novel approach for the monitoring and short-term forecasting of PFZ even for cloud-contaminated regions by using all possible ocean information from space-based platforms.
{"title":"Tracking fishing ground parameters in cloudy region using ocean colour and satellite-derived surface flow estimates: A study in the Bay of Bengal","authors":"M. Jishad, R. Sarangi, S. Ratheesh, Syed Moosa Ali, Rashmi Sharma","doi":"10.1080/1755876x.2019.1658566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876x.2019.1658566","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A new conceptual framework, based on ocean bio-physical observations from different satellites, has been proposed to track fishing ground parameters to identify Potential Fishing Zones (PFZ) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The proposed technique also attempts to provide a short-term forecast based on feature propagation, even under cloudy conditions. The current study has been carried out to understand the link between possible fish catch availability and satellite-derived parameters such as chlorophyll concentration, sea surface temperature, sea-level anomaly, ocean surface currents and wind vectors. Net Ekman transport obtained from the upfront and downfront components of the wind relative to the frontal direction provides valuable information on the forecast of PFZ regions and its possible shift. Comparison of the identified PFZs with limited in situ fish catch data proves that the suggested approach holds the promise in improved monitoring of possible fish catch locations. The study provides a novel approach for the monitoring and short-term forecasting of PFZ even for cloud-contaminated regions by using all possible ocean information from space-based platforms.","PeriodicalId":50105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Oceanography","volume":"28 1","pages":"59 - 70"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2019-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84603971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-01DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1633075
E. Aguiar, M. Juzà, B. Mourre, A. Pascual, E. Mason, Aïda Alvera Azcarate, J. Tintoré
{"title":"Anticyclonic Eddy Anomaly: impact on the boundary current and circulation in the western Mediterranean Sea","authors":"E. Aguiar, M. Juzà, B. Mourre, A. Pascual, E. Mason, Aïda Alvera Azcarate, J. Tintoré","doi":"10.1080/1755876X.2019.1633075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1633075","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Oceanography","volume":"355 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1633075","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72388692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-08DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1650589
A. Steven, M. Baird, R. Brinkman, N. Car, S. Cox, M. Herzfeld, J. Hodge, Emlyn Jones, E. King, N. Margvelashvili, C. Robillot, B. Robson, T. Schroeder, J. Skerratt, S. Tickell, N. Tuteja, K. Wild-Allen, Jonathan Yu
ABSTRACT eReefs is a comprehensive interoperable information platform that has been developed for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region to provide users with access to improved environmental intelligence allowing them to assess past, present, and future conditions, as well as management options to mitigate the risks associated with multiple and sometimes competing uses of the GBR. eReefs is built upon an integrated system of data, catchment and marine models, visualisation, reporting and decision support tools that span the entire GBR area. This communication briefly describes eReefs architecture and components and provides examples of applications that have been used to inform policy and management decisions, and finally discusses challenges and key learnings and considers future developments and applications.
{"title":"eReefs: An operational information system for managing the Great Barrier Reef","authors":"A. Steven, M. Baird, R. Brinkman, N. Car, S. Cox, M. Herzfeld, J. Hodge, Emlyn Jones, E. King, N. Margvelashvili, C. Robillot, B. Robson, T. Schroeder, J. Skerratt, S. Tickell, N. Tuteja, K. Wild-Allen, Jonathan Yu","doi":"10.1080/1755876X.2019.1650589","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1650589","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT eReefs is a comprehensive interoperable information platform that has been developed for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region to provide users with access to improved environmental intelligence allowing them to assess past, present, and future conditions, as well as management options to mitigate the risks associated with multiple and sometimes competing uses of the GBR. eReefs is built upon an integrated system of data, catchment and marine models, visualisation, reporting and decision support tools that span the entire GBR area. This communication briefly describes eReefs architecture and components and provides examples of applications that have been used to inform policy and management decisions, and finally discusses challenges and key learnings and considers future developments and applications.","PeriodicalId":50105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Oceanography","volume":"23 1","pages":"S12 - S28"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2019-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89392795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-08DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1644095
J. She, Jens Murawski
ABSTRACT Using Offshore Wind Farm (OWF) siting in the Baltic Sea as a demonstration case, key issues on developing community data services (CDS) for Blue Growth sectors are explored: e.g. data and product requirements, level of fitness-for-the-purpose and data gaps on the marine CDS for OWF. Through analysing the Blue Growth and marine service value chain as well as user requirements, a list of value-added products has been identified for two user groups: a public group for planning and managing the OWFs and OWF siting sector. Fit-for-the-purpose assessment is carried out to identify data adequacy for OWF siting per key variable in air, water, biota, seabed and human activity areas and per data characteristics, e.g. spatiotemporal coverage, resolution, timeliness, quality and accessibility. Major data gaps lie in observations of wind profiles, currents, sea ice thickness, bottom slope, sedimentation rate, grain size and transport. The results suggest that a community marine data service for OWF siting should be an integrated data portal with open and free data access. It should be a one-stop shop containing both raw data from satellite, in-situ, modelling, socio-economy and OWF sector, but more importantly tailored products which will allow performing feasibility siting on national scale.
{"title":"Developing community marine data service for Blue Growth sectors","authors":"J. She, Jens Murawski","doi":"10.1080/1755876X.2019.1644095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1644095","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Using Offshore Wind Farm (OWF) siting in the Baltic Sea as a demonstration case, key issues on developing community data services (CDS) for Blue Growth sectors are explored: e.g. data and product requirements, level of fitness-for-the-purpose and data gaps on the marine CDS for OWF. Through analysing the Blue Growth and marine service value chain as well as user requirements, a list of value-added products has been identified for two user groups: a public group for planning and managing the OWFs and OWF siting sector. Fit-for-the-purpose assessment is carried out to identify data adequacy for OWF siting per key variable in air, water, biota, seabed and human activity areas and per data characteristics, e.g. spatiotemporal coverage, resolution, timeliness, quality and accessibility. Major data gaps lie in observations of wind profiles, currents, sea ice thickness, bottom slope, sedimentation rate, grain size and transport. The results suggest that a community marine data service for OWF siting should be an integrated data portal with open and free data access. It should be a one-stop shop containing both raw data from satellite, in-situ, modelling, socio-economy and OWF sector, but more importantly tailored products which will allow performing feasibility siting on national scale.","PeriodicalId":50105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Oceanography","volume":"24 1","pages":"S80 - S96"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2019-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79695268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-07-17DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1634959
E. Smail, P. DiGiacomo, S. Seeyave, S. Djavidnia, L. Celliers, P. Le Traon, J. Gault, E. Escobar-Briones, H. Plag, Christine Pequignet, L. Bajona, Li Zhang, J. Pearlman, A. Steven, J. Hodge, Marie‐Fanny Racault, C. Storlazzi, W. Skirving, R. Hoeke, J. Marra, A. V. van Dongeren, F. Muller‐Karger, D. Cripe, D. Takaki
ABSTRACT We live on a blue planet, and Earth’s waters benefit many sectors of society. The future of our blue planet is increasingly reliant on the services delivered by marine, coastal and inland waters and on the advancement of effective, evidence-based decisions on sustainable development. ‘Oceans and Society: Blue Planet’ is an initiative of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) that aims to ensure the sustained development and use of ocean and coastal observations for the benefit of society. The initiative works to advance and exploit synergies among the many observational programmes devoted to ocean and coastal waters; to improve engagement with a variety of stakeholders for enhancing the timeliness, quality and range of information delivered; and to raise awareness of the societal benefits of ocean observations at the public and policy levels. This paper summarises the role of the initiative, current activities and considerations for future directions.
{"title":"An introduction to the ‘Oceans and Society: Blue Planet’ initiative","authors":"E. Smail, P. DiGiacomo, S. Seeyave, S. Djavidnia, L. Celliers, P. Le Traon, J. Gault, E. Escobar-Briones, H. Plag, Christine Pequignet, L. Bajona, Li Zhang, J. Pearlman, A. Steven, J. Hodge, Marie‐Fanny Racault, C. Storlazzi, W. Skirving, R. Hoeke, J. Marra, A. V. van Dongeren, F. Muller‐Karger, D. Cripe, D. Takaki","doi":"10.1080/1755876X.2019.1634959","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1634959","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We live on a blue planet, and Earth’s waters benefit many sectors of society. The future of our blue planet is increasingly reliant on the services delivered by marine, coastal and inland waters and on the advancement of effective, evidence-based decisions on sustainable development. ‘Oceans and Society: Blue Planet’ is an initiative of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) that aims to ensure the sustained development and use of ocean and coastal observations for the benefit of society. The initiative works to advance and exploit synergies among the many observational programmes devoted to ocean and coastal waters; to improve engagement with a variety of stakeholders for enhancing the timeliness, quality and range of information delivered; and to raise awareness of the societal benefits of ocean observations at the public and policy levels. This paper summarises the role of the initiative, current activities and considerations for future directions.","PeriodicalId":50105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Oceanography","volume":"12 1","pages":"S1 - S11"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2019-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79009725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-07-15DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1636606
A. Steven, S. Aryal, P. Bernal, F. Bravo, R. Bustamante, S. Condie, J. Dambacher, Sven Dowideit, E. Fulton, Rebecca Gorton, M. Herzfeld, J. Hodge, E. Hoshino, Erin Kenna, Diego Ocampo, C. van Putten, F. Rizwi, J. Skerratt, A. Steven, Linda Thomas, S. Tickell, P. Vaquero, D. Wild, K. Wild-Allen
ABSTRACT The Integrated Management System for the Aquaculture (SIMA in Spanish) is a comprehensive interoperable information and modelling platform that has been developed to provide the Chilean Aquaculture industry and government agencies with access to improved environmental intelligence allowing them to make better informed strategic and operational decisions. SIMA is built upon an integrated system of biophysical production data, catchment and coastal-marine models, visualisation, reporting and risk-based decision support tools. This communication briefly describes the SIMA architecture and components and provides examples of applications of how it can be used to inform policy and management decisions, and discusses challenges and key learnings and considers future developments and applications.
{"title":"SIMA Austral: An operational information system for managing the Chilean aquaculture industry with international application","authors":"A. Steven, S. Aryal, P. Bernal, F. Bravo, R. Bustamante, S. Condie, J. Dambacher, Sven Dowideit, E. Fulton, Rebecca Gorton, M. Herzfeld, J. Hodge, E. Hoshino, Erin Kenna, Diego Ocampo, C. van Putten, F. Rizwi, J. Skerratt, A. Steven, Linda Thomas, S. Tickell, P. Vaquero, D. Wild, K. Wild-Allen","doi":"10.1080/1755876X.2019.1636606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1636606","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The Integrated Management System for the Aquaculture (SIMA in Spanish) is a comprehensive interoperable information and modelling platform that has been developed to provide the Chilean Aquaculture industry and government agencies with access to improved environmental intelligence allowing them to make better informed strategic and operational decisions. SIMA is built upon an integrated system of biophysical production data, catchment and coastal-marine models, visualisation, reporting and risk-based decision support tools. This communication briefly describes the SIMA architecture and components and provides examples of applications of how it can be used to inform policy and management decisions, and discusses challenges and key learnings and considers future developments and applications.","PeriodicalId":50105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Oceanography","volume":"2 1","pages":"S29 - S46"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2019-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84776479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-25DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632665
G. P. Kumar, V. Prasad, U. Ramesh
ABSTRACT Among various factors influencing the ocean noise levels, shipping traffic radiated underwater noise levels were identified as the major contributors. The increase in ambient noise levels due to natural and anthropogenic sources threatens the marine species communication. India has a coastline of 7,516.6 Km with 12 major and ∼187 minor ports. The hydrophone system measured for 39 days helped in investigating the distant shipping traffic lane noise levels and its influence on ambient noise levels of the region. The ocean noise levels measurement were ∼115 dB re 1 µPa for the prevailing environmental conditions. The noise exposure levels were ∼10 dB higher at <1 kHz due to ship passage to and from the port. The fish noise dominated the ambient sea noise mostly at high frequencies >1 kHz. The maximum and minimum range of shipping noise spectra for both the month’s data indicated peak sound pressure level in the lower frequency. Thus, the outcome of the measurements helped in understanding ocean noise levels off the coast of Mormugao Port and the influence of shipping traffic. A similar study for longer duration shall be useful to develop specific traffic lanes in the port entrance which is free from the mammal movements.
在影响海洋噪声水平的诸多因素中，船舶交通辐射水下噪声水平是影响海洋噪声水平的主要因素。由于自然和人为因素造成的环境噪声水平的增加威胁着海洋物种的交流。印度的海岸线长达7516.6公里，有12个主要港口和187个次要港口。水听器系统测量了39天，有助于调查远航航道噪声水平及其对该地区环境噪声水平的影响。在当时的环境条件下，海洋噪声水平测量值为~ 115 dB re 1µPa。在1khz时，噪声暴露水平高出约10db。两个月船舶噪声谱的最大值和最小值范围都表示较低频率的峰值声压级。因此，测量结果有助于了解摩尔木高港海岸的海洋噪音水平和航运交通的影响。进行一项类似的、为期较长时间的研究，将有助于在港口入口开发不受哺乳动物活动影响的专用车道。
{"title":"Underwater noise levels in Indian waters off the coast of Mormugao Port","authors":"G. P. Kumar, V. Prasad, U. Ramesh","doi":"10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632665","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Among various factors influencing the ocean noise levels, shipping traffic radiated underwater noise levels were identified as the major contributors. The increase in ambient noise levels due to natural and anthropogenic sources threatens the marine species communication. India has a coastline of 7,516.6 Km with 12 major and ∼187 minor ports. The hydrophone system measured for 39 days helped in investigating the distant shipping traffic lane noise levels and its influence on ambient noise levels of the region. The ocean noise levels measurement were ∼115 dB re 1 µPa for the prevailing environmental conditions. The noise exposure levels were ∼10 dB higher at <1 kHz due to ship passage to and from the port. The fish noise dominated the ambient sea noise mostly at high frequencies >1 kHz. The maximum and minimum range of shipping noise spectra for both the month’s data indicated peak sound pressure level in the lower frequency. Thus, the outcome of the measurements helped in understanding ocean noise levels off the coast of Mormugao Port and the influence of shipping traffic. A similar study for longer duration shall be useful to develop specific traffic lanes in the port entrance which is free from the mammal movements.","PeriodicalId":50105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Oceanography","volume":"116 1","pages":"48 - 58"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2019-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77227540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-25DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632617
A. Ciappa
ABSTRACT The existence of the Mid-Mediterranean Jet (MMJ) as part of the pathway of the Atlantic Water (AW) in Eastern Mediterranean is still debated and the reasons for its formation are unknown. The MMJ was investigated over the 2000–2015 summers using thermal and altimetry satellite data and ‘in situ’ casts. In the Levantine basin, the AW flowing along the Libyan-Egyptian coast splits into an along-shore and an offshore branch, the latter following the northern border of the warm anti-cyclones located near the African coast (Libyan-Egyptian Eddies, LEEs). The MMJ is triggered when a surface cold water mass formed south-east of Crete, in part outflowing the Aegean Sea and in part generated within the Rhodes Gyre, moves southward and intrudes the middle Levantine basin. The surface cold water overlays the AW flowing along the northern periphery of LEEs that sinks dozens of metres below increasing its budget of anti-cyclonic vorticity and causing the formation of the jet. Satellite data show that the MMJ formed every summer from 2003 to 2015, sometimes for limited periods of time and at different latitudes, with the exception of summers 2005–2006, probably due to the weakness of the African anti-cyclones that in those years did not advect AW offshore.
{"title":"A study on causes and recurrence of the Mid-Mediterranean Jet from 2003 to 2015 using satellite thermal and altimetry data and CTD casts","authors":"A. Ciappa","doi":"10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632617","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The existence of the Mid-Mediterranean Jet (MMJ) as part of the pathway of the Atlantic Water (AW) in Eastern Mediterranean is still debated and the reasons for its formation are unknown. The MMJ was investigated over the 2000–2015 summers using thermal and altimetry satellite data and ‘in situ’ casts. In the Levantine basin, the AW flowing along the Libyan-Egyptian coast splits into an along-shore and an offshore branch, the latter following the northern border of the warm anti-cyclones located near the African coast (Libyan-Egyptian Eddies, LEEs). The MMJ is triggered when a surface cold water mass formed south-east of Crete, in part outflowing the Aegean Sea and in part generated within the Rhodes Gyre, moves southward and intrudes the middle Levantine basin. The surface cold water overlays the AW flowing along the northern periphery of LEEs that sinks dozens of metres below increasing its budget of anti-cyclonic vorticity and causing the formation of the jet. Satellite data show that the MMJ formed every summer from 2003 to 2015, sometimes for limited periods of time and at different latitudes, with the exception of summers 2005–2006, probably due to the weakness of the African anti-cyclones that in those years did not advect AW offshore.","PeriodicalId":50105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Oceanography","volume":"22 1","pages":"37 - 47"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2019-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89530463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-20DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632128
G. Bigg, Yifan Zhao, Edward Hanna
ABSTRACT The iceberg hazard for the Grand Banks area to the east of Newfoundland varies dramatically from one year to the next. In some years no icebergs penetrate south of 48°N, while in others well over 1000 icebergs enter the main shipping lanes between Europe and NE North America. Advance knowledge of this seasonal hazard would have major implications for ship routing, as well as the resources required for maintaining an effective ice hazard service. Here, a Windowed Error Reduction Ratio control system identification approach is used to forecast the severity of the 2018 iceberg season off Newfoundland, in terms of the predicted number of icebergs crossing 48°N, as well as to hindcast iceberg numbers for 2017. The best estimates are for 766 ± 297 icebergs crossing 48°N before the end of September 2017 and 685 ± 207 for 2018. These are both above the recent observed average of 592 icebergs for that date, and substantially so for 2017. Given the bimodal nature of the annual iceberg number, this means that our predictions for both 2017 and 2018 are for a high iceberg season, with a 71% level of confidence. However, it is most likely that the 2018 iceberg numbers will be somewhat less than 1000, while our higher hindcast for 2017 is consistent with the observed level of 1008. Our verification analysis, covering the 20-year period up to 2016, shows our model's correspondence to the high or low nature of the 48°N iceberg numbers is statistically robust to the 0.05% level, with a skill level of 80%.
{"title":"Forecasting the severity of the Newfoundland iceberg season using a control systems model","authors":"G. Bigg, Yifan Zhao, Edward Hanna","doi":"10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1632128","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The iceberg hazard for the Grand Banks area to the east of Newfoundland varies dramatically from one year to the next. In some years no icebergs penetrate south of 48°N, while in others well over 1000 icebergs enter the main shipping lanes between Europe and NE North America. Advance knowledge of this seasonal hazard would have major implications for ship routing, as well as the resources required for maintaining an effective ice hazard service. Here, a Windowed Error Reduction Ratio control system identification approach is used to forecast the severity of the 2018 iceberg season off Newfoundland, in terms of the predicted number of icebergs crossing 48°N, as well as to hindcast iceberg numbers for 2017. The best estimates are for 766 ± 297 icebergs crossing 48°N before the end of September 2017 and 685 ± 207 for 2018. These are both above the recent observed average of 592 icebergs for that date, and substantially so for 2017. Given the bimodal nature of the annual iceberg number, this means that our predictions for both 2017 and 2018 are for a high iceberg season, with a 71% level of confidence. However, it is most likely that the 2018 iceberg numbers will be somewhat less than 1000, while our higher hindcast for 2017 is consistent with the observed level of 1008. Our verification analysis, covering the 20-year period up to 2016, shows our model's correspondence to the high or low nature of the 48°N iceberg numbers is statistically robust to the 0.05% level, with a skill level of 80%.","PeriodicalId":50105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Operational Oceanography","volume":"1 1","pages":"24 - 36"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2019-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88793797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-05-02DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1611708
A. Declerck, M. Delpey, A. Rubio, L. Ferrer, O. C. Basurko, J. Mader, M. Louzao
ABSTRACT Marine litter is identified as the major ocean pollution today, with a significant impact on the environment. The transport of litter by ocean circulation is still poorly understood, and the management of marine litter remains a major challenge for local authorities. This work investigates the transport of floating marine litter (FML) in the coastal area of the south-eastern Bay of Biscay. It provides a first assessment of the use of operational ocean observations and models for the support of FML management in this region. The study is based on a Lagrangian modelling approach, using ocean surface velocity forcing by (i) measurements with High-Frequency Radars and (ii) predictions from the IBI Copernicus model. The IBI model is first assessed in a Lagrangian perspective using different observations of surface ocean currents and transport. Then, analyzing a multiyear hindcast of the Lagrangian model, high retention is shown in the southeast during spring and summer. Northward dispersion is obtained along the French coast during autumn and winter. In winter, large river inflows are not compensated by the inner shelf transport, resulting in the highest material densities along the coast. The results also suggest that the Iberian Poleward Current may act as a cross-shore transport barrier in the area.
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