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Variational data assimilation of sea surface height into a regional storm surge model: Benefits and limitations 海面高度的变分资料同化成区域风暴潮模式:优点和局限性
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-02-11 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2021.1884405
D. Byrne, K. Horsburgh, J. Williams
ABSTRACT Storm surges are coastal sea-level variations caused by meteorological conditions. It is vital that they are forecasted accurately to reduce the potential for financial damage and loss of life. In this study, we investigate how effectively the variational assimilation of sparse sea level observations from tide gauges can be used for operational forecasting in the North Sea. Novel data assimilation ideas are considered and evaluated: a new shortest-path method for generating improved distance-based correlations in the presence of coastal boundaries and an adaptive error covariance model. An assimilation setup is validated by removing selections of tide gauges from the assimilation procedure for a North Sea case study. These experiments show widespread improvements in RMSE and correlations, reaching up to 16 cm and 0.7 (respectively) at some locations. Simulated forecast experiments show RMSE improvements of up to 5 cm for the first 24 h of forecasting, which is useful operationally. Beyond 24 h, improvements quickly diminish however. Using the setup based on the shortest path algorithm shows little difference when compared to a simpler Euclidean method at most locations. Analysis of this event shows that improvements due to data assimilation are bounded and relatively short lived.
风暴潮是由气象条件引起的沿海海平面变化。至关重要的是,它们的准确预测,以减少潜在的经济损失和生命损失。在这项研究中,我们探讨了如何有效地利用变分同化从潮汐计稀疏海平面观测可以用于业务预报在北海。考虑并评估了新的数据同化思想:一种新的最短路径方法,用于在存在海岸边界的情况下产生改进的基于距离的相关性,以及一种自适应误差协方差模型。通过从北海案例研究的同化过程中删除潮汐计的选择,验证了同化设置。这些实验显示了RMSE和相关性的广泛改善,在某些位置分别达到16厘米和0.7厘米。模拟预报实验表明,预报前24 h的RMSE提高了5 cm,具有实际应用价值。然而,超过24小时,改善很快就会消失。在大多数情况下,使用基于最短路径算法的设置与简单的欧几里得方法相比差异不大。对这一事件的分析表明,由于数据同化而得到的改进是有限的,而且持续时间相对较短。
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引用次数: 5
Evaluating numerical and free-drift forecasts of sea ice drift during a Southern Ocean research expedition: An operational perspective 在南大洋研究考察期间评估海冰漂移的数值和自由漂移预测:一个操作角度
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-02-08 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2021.1883293
M. de Vos, Michael A. Barnes, L. Biddle, S. Swart, Carla-Louise Ramjukadh, M. Vichi
ABSTRACT Antarctic sea ice is prevalently seen as a major player in the climate system, but it is also an important factor in polar maritime safety. Remote sensing and forecasting of Southern Ocean sea ice at time scales suitable for navigation and research planning remain challenging. In this study, numerical sea ice drift forecasts are assessed from the perspective of informing shipping operations. A series of tests is performed to ascertain whether an operational global ocean and sea ice model and a simple free-drift model can provide accurate drift estimates over short lead times. Both approaches are evaluated against ice drift measurements from buoys deployed during two research cruises in the Southern Ocean marginal ice zone during winter and spring. The numerical forecast model was able to forecast sea ice trajectories over 24 h with an average position error of 16.6 km during winter and 9.2 km during spring. The simpler free-drift model, using empirically optimised wind scaling, returned an average position error of 15.9 and 9.3 km during winter and spring respectively. Model skill for both the dynamical and free-drift models is lower in winter than in spring. Free-drift model skill appears linked with sea ice consolidation, which may assist in determining when and where this approach is fit for purpose. Lingering uncertainties regarding the rheological representation of sea ice in the dynamical model and the quality of the wind and ocean forcing remain, potentially affecting model skill over tactical navigation time frames.
南极海冰被普遍认为是气候系统的主要参与者,但它也是极地海上安全的重要因素。在适合导航和研究规划的时间尺度上对南大洋海冰进行遥感和预报仍然具有挑战性。在本研究中,从通知航运作业的角度评估了数值海冰漂移预报。进行了一系列试验,以确定一个可操作的全球海洋和海冰模型以及一个简单的自由漂移模型是否能够在较短的准备时间内提供准确的漂移估计。这两种方法都是根据冬季和春季在南大洋边缘冰区进行的两次研究巡航中部署的浮标的冰漂测量结果进行评估的。数值预报模式能较好地预报24 h海冰轨迹,冬季平均定位误差为16.6 km,春季平均定位误差为9.2 km。更简单的自由漂移模型,使用经验优化的风标度,在冬季和春季分别返回15.9和9.3公里的平均位置误差。动力模式和自由漂移模式的模式技能在冬季都比春季低。自由漂移模型技能似乎与海冰巩固有关,这可能有助于确定这种方法何时何地适用。关于海冰在动力模型中的流变表示以及风和海洋强迫的质量的不确定性仍然存在,这可能会影响战术航行时间框架内的模型技能。
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引用次数: 8
Spatio-temporal variation in sea state parameters along virtual ship route paths 虚拟船舶航路海况参数的时空变化
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-01-15 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2021.1872894
U. Nielsen
ABSTRACT The article presents a study investigating the level of variation in sea state parameters encountered by sailing ships crossing the oceans. The sea state parameters have been obtained from a reanalysis, in this case the ERA5. The study is based on the use of different interpolation schemes to compute parameters in geographical positions off the fixed grid. It is shown that the variation in sea state parameters can be significant. Consequently, in case of sailing ships, covering relatively long distances in a short time (30–60 min), it is recommended to rely on bilinear interpolation rather than nearest neighbour. The variation in the sea state parameters is, in fact, at a level which means that the normal assumption of a stationary seaway in periods up to 3 h likely is violated for ships sailing the typical service speed (15–20+ kt).
摘要:本文介绍了一项研究,调查了帆船穿越海洋时遇到的海况参数的变化水平。海况参数是通过再分析得到的,这次是ERA5。该研究基于使用不同的插值方案来计算固定网格以外地理位置的参数。结果表明,海况参数的变化是显著的。因此,对于帆船,在较短的时间内(30-60分钟)行驶较长的距离,建议采用双线性插值,而不是最近邻插值。事实上,海况参数的变化在一定程度上意味着,对于以典型航速(15-20 + kt)航行的船舶来说,在长达3小时的周期内,航道静止的正常假设可能是不符合的。
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引用次数: 16
Development of small vessel advisory and forecast services system for safe navigation and operations at sea 发展小型船只谘询及预报服务系统,以确保海上航行及作业安全
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-11-13 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1846267
N. Aditya, K. Sandhya, R. Harikumar, T. M. Balakrishnan Nair
ABSTRACT Fishing is the most dangerous profession in the world. To reduce the number of accidents caused by capsizing of vessels, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has designed and developed an advisory and forecast services system for the Indian ocean regime, which warns users against potential zones and times at which vessel overturning can take place, three days in advance. This paper discusses the development and various aspects of such a system, its decision-making mechanism, and the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP). Warning advisories issued by the system are based upon a newly coined index-Boat Safety Index (BSI). The advisory system is verified with a few real-life incidents of the past. The refinement of the advisory system is planned by updating suitable thresholds for the indices based upon regular feedback from the users. The boats operating along the Indian coast are classified into different categories based upon their beam size, and category-specific advisories are issued.
捕鱼是世界上最危险的职业。为了减少船只倾覆造成的事故数量,印度国家海洋信息服务中心(INCOIS)为印度洋制度设计并开发了一个咨询和预报服务系统,该系统提前三天警告用户船只可能发生倾覆的潜在区域和时间。本文讨论了该系统的发展和各个方面,其决策机制和标准操作程序(SOP)。该系统发出的警告建议是基于一个新创造的指数——船舶安全指数。咨询系统通过过去的一些真实事件得到验证。根据用户的定期反馈,计划通过更新指数的适当阈值来改进咨询系统。在印度海岸作业的船只根据其波束大小被分为不同的类别,并发出特定类别的通知。
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引用次数: 9
A numerical study on seasonal transport variability of the North Indian Ocean boundary currents using Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 基于区域海洋模拟系统(ROMS)的北印度洋边界流季节输运变率数值研究
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1846266
Radharani Sen, Suchita Pandey, Sumit Dandapat, P. A. Francis, A. Chakraborty
ABSTRACT This study investigates the seasonal transport variability of the North Indian Ocean (NIO) boundary currents, in particular, the East India Coastal Current (EICC) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), West India Coastal Current (WICC) in the Arabian Sea (AS) and Somali Current (SC) in the Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) using a high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with climatological river input. The simulation result indicates that northward EICC peaks in March and its mean transport is 2.65 Sv during February to April. The southward EICC extends down to 200 m depth and transports 0.67 Sv during October–December. Northward WICC which extends down to 100 m depth transports 0.31 Sv along the west coast of India during the winter monsoon. Southwestward SC flows between 6.5°N to 3°N, and northeastward cross-equatorial SC goes up to 11°N along the Somali coast. Northeastward SC which is the strongest coastal current in the NIO transports 13.05 Sv during the summer monsoon. The average transport of southwestward SC is 2.57 Sv only. The study suggests that wind stress and wind stress curl (WSC) plays a vital role in the semiannual reversal of transport and remote forcing modulated by equatorial wind anomalies dominates the southward EICC transport.
本研究利用具有气候河流输入的高分辨率区域海洋模拟系统(ROMS)研究了北印度洋(NIO)边界流,特别是孟加拉湾(BoB)的东印度海岸流(EICC)、阿拉伯海(AS)的西印度海岸流(WICC)和赤道印度洋(EIO)的索马里流(SC)的季节输送变化。模拟结果表明,北向EICC在3月达到峰值,2 ~ 4月平均输运量为2.65 Sv。EICC向南延伸至200 m深度,10 - 12月输送量为0.67 Sv。在冬季季风期间,沿印度西海岸向北延伸至100米深度的WICC输送0.31 Sv。西南偏南沿6.5°N至3°N流动,东北跨赤道偏南沿索马里海岸流动至11°N。东北偏南是NIO最强的海岸流,在夏季风期间输送13.05 Sv。西南风的平均输送量仅为2.57 Sv。研究表明,风应力和风应力旋度(WSC)在半年一次的环流倒转中起着重要作用,赤道风异常调制的远强迫主导了东太平洋环流向南的环流。
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引用次数: 1
Assessment of an ocean-ecosystem model in simulating the Indian coastal marine ecosystem dynamics 模拟印度沿海海洋生态系统动态的海洋生态系统模式评估
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-11-09 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1843298
K. Chakraborty, A. Lotliker, G. Gupta, V. Narayanan Nampoothiri S., A. Paul, Jayashree Ghosh, Trishneeta Bhattacharya, S. K. Baliarsingh, A. Samanta
ABSTRACT This study describes an assessment of an ocean-ecosystem model in simulating marine ecosystem dynamics in the Indian coastal waters. Long-term sustained in-situ observations of temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a and dissolved oxygen (DO) collected in the coastal waters of India, and ship-based observations are used for this assessment. The model captures observed trend of temperature, salinity and chlorophyll-a with high correlation in both eastern and western shelf waters except for salinity and DO along west and DO along east coast. The model performs very well in simulating the Indian coastal shelf ecosystem dynamics. The seasonal occurrence of prominent phytoplankton bloom in the central-east coast during pre-monsoon, south-west coast during monsoon and north-west coast during post-monsoon is realistically reproduced by the model. The model also reproduces the seasonal presence of significantly low DO content in the upwelled water at a shallow depth leading to coastal hypoxia in the south-west and central-east coast of India during summer monsoon. A fine-tuned model is useful in understanding better Indian coastal shelf ecosystem and predicting future changes in time and space, like the occurrence of coastal hypoxia or anticipating phytoplankton blooms. Such information is useful for predicting potential fishing grounds in coastal waters and fisheries management.
摘要:本研究描述了一个海洋生态系统模型在模拟印度沿海水域海洋生态系统动态方面的评估。对印度沿海水域收集的温度、盐度、叶绿素-a和溶解氧(DO)进行了长期持续的原位观测,并利用船舶观测资料进行了评估。该模式捕获了东西部陆架水域除西海岸和东海岸盐度和DO外的温度、盐度和叶绿素-a的高相关性趋势。该模型能很好地模拟印度海岸陆架生态系统动态。在季风前的中东部海岸、季风期间的西南海岸和季风后的西北海岸,浮游植物大量繁殖的季节分布都得到了真实的再现。该模型还再现了夏季季风期间,浅层上升水中显著低DO含量的季节性存在,导致印度西南和中东部海岸的沿海缺氧。一个微调模型有助于更好地理解印度沿海大陆架生态系统,并预测未来的时间和空间变化,比如沿海缺氧的发生或预测浮游植物的大量繁殖。这些资料对于预测沿海水域的潜在渔场和渔业管理是有用的。
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引用次数: 1
Assessment of Coringa Mangrove shoreline migration using geospatial techniques 利用地理空间技术评价科林加红树林岸线迁移
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-11-06 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1840245
G. Sharma, K. Patnaik
ABSTRACT Coringa Mangroves in the Kakinada Bay have evolved as the second-largest mangroves in the East Coast of India over the last century. The Coringa Mangrove shoreline has accreted considerably in the past decades as observed from the satellite imageries, adding value to the natural biodiversity of flora and fauna. This study is focused on quantifying the long term changes of Coringa mangrove shoreline using the Landsat imageries for years 1977, 1988, 2000, and 2013 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System. For a mangrove shoreline length of 20.5 km, 41 transects were cast at an interval of 500 m for calculating the change and their migration distance using three statistical methods, namely End Point Rate (EPR), Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR). Results showed that there was considerable growth of mangroves in the bay leading to the seaward migration of the mangrove shoreline from the year 1977–2013. The study observed the difference in the mangrove shoreline migration dynamics in the South-eastern (near the bottom of the spit) and the western part of the Kakinada Bay. The calculated average degradation rate due to erosion is −5.19 m.yr−1 and the average accretion rate leading to their growth is 14.83 m.yr−1 for all transects of the 20.5 km mangrove shoreline stretch during this period. The results hold importance as they help in identifying the regions prone to mangrove degradation and enable management planning for the protection of the eroding stretch of the mangrove shoreline.
在过去的一个世纪里,卡基纳达湾的科林加红树林已经发展成为印度东海岸的第二大红树林。从卫星图像中观察到,在过去的几十年里,科林加红树林海岸线已经大大增加,增加了动植物的自然生物多样性。本研究采用数字海岸线分析系统,利用1977年、1988年、2000年和2013年的陆地卫星图像,量化了科林加红树林海岸线的长期变化。以20.5 km的红树林岸线为研究对象,采用终点率(End Point Rate, EPR)、净岸线移动率(Net shoreline Movement, NSM)和线性回归率(Linear Regression Rate, LRR) 3种统计方法,每隔500 m投下41个样带,计算岸线变化及其迁移距离。结果表明:1977-2013年,黄河湾红树林生长明显,导致红树林海岸线向海迁移;该研究观察了Kakinada湾东南部(靠近吐槽底部)和西部红树林海岸线迁移动态的差异。计算得到的平均侵蚀降解率为−5.19 m。Yr−1,导致其生长的平均吸积速率为14.83 m。在此期间,20.5公里红树林海岸线延伸的所有样带的Yr−1。这些结果具有重要意义,因为它们有助于确定容易发生红树林退化的区域,并有助于管理规划,以保护红树林海岸线的侵蚀延伸。
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引用次数: 1
A study on the physical and biogeochemical responses of the Bay of Bengal due to cyclone Madi 气旋马迪对孟加拉湾的物理和生物地球化学响应研究
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-09-10 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1817659
R. Roy Chowdhury, S. Prasanna Kumar, A. Chakraborty
ABSTRACT Madi was a category-2 cyclonic storm formed over the south-western Bay of Bengal (BoB) in December 2013. It formed on 6th December as a depression, and by 8th December it became a very severe cyclonic storm. Some unique features of Madi were: (a) an unexpected reduction in the intensity during its north-westward movement, (b) sudden change in track by almost 180o in a south-westerly direction, and (c) swift dissipation in the open ocean while moving over cold-core eddies during its south-westward movement. The rapid weakening in intensity before track reversal occurred mainly due to its passage over cold-core eddies, where the upper-ocean heat content was reduced due to eddy-pumping of cold water from the subsurface. An analysis of the eddy-feedback factor reiterated that the slower movement of the cyclone was due to the cold-core eddy. When the cyclone entered into the cold-core eddy region, it slowed-down and changed its track towards a south-westerly direction under the influence of prevailing north-easterly winds. The biogeochemical response of Madi estimated using the satellite remote sensing and Bio Argo data showed an increase in Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration from 0.2-0.4–2.7 mg/m3, while the net primary productivity (NPP) increased from 320 to 2500 mg C/m2 /day, both of which were about 7 and 8 times respectively higher than the before-cyclone values. The CO2 flux showed a 4 times increase from its pre-cyclone value of 3.5 mmol/m2 /day, indicating that BoB becomes a strong source to the atmosphere during the cyclone Madi period.
马迪是2013年12月在孟加拉湾西南部形成的二级气旋风暴。它于12月6日形成低气压,到12月8日成为一场非常强烈的气旋风暴。马迪的一些独特特征是:(a)在向西北移动期间强度意外减弱,(b)在向西南方向突然改变路径近180度,以及(c)在向西南移动期间在冷核涡流上移动时在公海迅速消散。路径反转前强度的快速减弱主要是由于其经过冷核涡旋,由于涡旋从地下泵出冷水,上层海洋热含量减少。对涡旋反馈因子的分析再次表明,气旋移动速度较慢是由于冷核涡旋。当气旋进入冷核涡区后,在盛行东北风的影响下,气旋速度减慢并改变路径向西南方向移动。利用卫星遥感和Bio Argo数据估算的马迪湖生物地球化学响应显示,叶绿素-a (Chl-a)浓度从0.2 ~ 0.4 ~ 2.7 mg/m3增加,净初级生产力(NPP)从320 ~ 2500 mg C/m2 /d增加,分别是气旋前的7倍和8倍。CO2通量较气旋前的3.5 mmol/m2 /d增加了4倍,表明BoB在气旋马迪期间成为大气的强源。
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引用次数: 6
On the upper ocean response of Bay of Bengal to very severe cyclones Phailin and Hudhud 孟加拉湾上层海洋对超强气旋菲林和哈德哈德的反应
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-09-07 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1813412
Anju Issac Elizabeth, J. B. Effy, P. A. Francis
ABSTRACT The upper ocean response of Bay of Bengal to two extremely severe post-monsoon tropical cyclones, Phailin and Hudhud, which occurred in the same time of the season (4–12 October 2013 and 6–12 October 2014 respectively) with very similar tracks and life cycles are presented in this study. It is observed that, even though the tropical cyclone Phailin was much stronger than tropical cyclone Hudhud, the cooling of the underlying ocean was more rapid and intense during the passage of tropical cyclone Hudhud. Heat budget analysis of the upper ocean based on realistic simulations using Regional Ocean Modeling System suggests that, while the vertical processes, horizontal advection and the reduction in the net heat flux have contributed to the cooling of the upper ocean in both the cases, the intensity of vertical processes were relatively weaker in the case of tropical cyclone Phailin. Further analysis shows that the surface layers of Bay of Bengal were relatively more stable in October 2013 due to excess rainfall in the preceding summer monsoon compared to October 2014, which was succeeded by a poor monsoon.
本文研究了孟加拉湾上层海洋对发生在同一季节(分别为2013年10月4日至12日和2014年10月6日至12日)、轨迹和生命周期非常相似的两个极强季风后热带气旋“菲林”和“哈德哈德”的响应。观察到,尽管热带气旋“菲林”比热带气旋“哈德哈德”强得多,但在热带气旋“哈德哈德”通过期间,下层海洋的冷却速度更快、强度更大。基于区域海洋模拟系统实际模拟的上层海洋热收支分析表明,虽然垂直过程、水平平流和净热通量的减少都有助于上层海洋的冷却,但在热带气旋“菲琳”的情况下,垂直过程的强度相对较弱。进一步分析表明,与2014年10月相比,2013年10月孟加拉湾表层相对稳定,原因是前期夏季风降水偏多,随后季风偏弱。
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引用次数: 1
Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 4 哥白尼海洋局海洋状况报告,第4期
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-08-21 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1785097
K. von Schuckmann, P. Le Traon, N. Smith, A. Pascual, S. Djavidnia, J. Gattuso, M. Grégoire, G. Nolan, S. Aaboe, E. Fanjul, L. Aouf, Roland Aznar, T. Badewien, A. Behrens, M. Berta, Laurent Bertino, J. Blackford, G. Bolzon, Federica Borile, M. Bretagnon, R. Brewin, D. Canu, P. Cessi, S. Ciavatta, B. Chapron, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, F. Chevallier, B. Chtirkova, S. Ciliberti, J. Clark, E. Clementi, Clément Combot, E. Comerma, A. Conchon, G. Coppini, L. Corgnati, G. Cossarini, S. Cravatte, M. de Alfonso, C. de Boyer Montégut, Christian De Lera Fernández, F. J. de los Santos, Anna Denvil-Sommer, Álvaro de Pascual Collar, Paulo Alonso Lourenco Dias Nunes, Valeria Di Biagio, M. Drudi, Owen Embury, P. Falco, O. F. d'Andon, L. Ferrer, D. Ford, H. Freund, M. G. León, M. Sotillo, J. García-Valdecasas, P. Garnesson, G. Garric, F. Gasparin, M. Gehlen, Ana Genua‐Olmedo, G. Geyer, A. Ghermandi, S. Good, J. Gourrion, E. Greiner, A. Griffa, Manuel González, A. Griffa, I. Hernández‐Carrasco, S. Isoard, J. Kennedy, S. Kay, A
Journal of Operational Oceanography Volume 13 Supplement 1 September 2020 CONTENTS Chapter 1: Introduction and the European Environment policy framework s1 1.1 Introduction and main outcomes Karina...
业务海洋学杂志第13卷增刊1 2020年9月目录第1章:引言和欧洲环境政策框架s1 1.1引言和主要成果
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引用次数: 39
期刊
Journal of Operational Oceanography
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