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Observation impact statement on satellite sea surface salinity data from two operational global ocean forecasting systems 对两个全球海洋预报系统卫星海面盐度数据的观测影响说明
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-08-10 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1771815
Matthew Martin, E. Rémy, B. Tranchant, Robert R. King, Eric Greiner, Craig Donlon
ABSTRACT Observing system experiments have been carried out with two operational ocean data assimilation systems to assess the impact of assimilating satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) data. The SSS data reduces the errors in tropical Pacific salinity by 4% and 8% in the Met Office and Mercator Ocean systems respectively with an impact down to about 50 m depth on average. Salinity errors were reduced by up to 30% in the tropical Atlantic in both systems. There were significant reductions in near-surface temperature and sea level anomaly errors in both the central tropical Pacific and Amazon outflow regions in the Met Office system. The experiment results and characteristics of the operational ocean forecasting systems lead to a new set of requirements for satellite salinity data. The product accuracy required to significantly improve real-time ocean analysis and forecasts should be less than 0.2 pss at a resolution of at least 50 km for daily products. Improvements to spatial resolution down to the order of 10 km would represent an even more significant breakthrough. To be assimilated in near-real time, products should be available within 24 h and estimates of the systematic and random components of the uncertainty should be provided with each measurement.
摘要利用两个海洋数据同化系统进行了观测系统实验,以评估同化卫星海面盐度(SSS)数据的影响。在英国气象局和墨卡托海洋系统中,SSS数据使热带太平洋盐度的误差分别降低了4%和8%,平均影响深度约为50米。在两个系统中,热带大西洋的盐度误差减少了30%。在Met Office系统中,热带太平洋中部和亚马逊河流出区近地表温度和海平面异常误差都有显著降低。实际海洋预报系统的试验结果和特点对卫星盐度数据提出了新的要求。要显著提高实时海洋分析和预报所需的产品精度,在至少50公里的分辨率下,每日产品的精度应低于0.2秒。将空间分辨率提高到10公里左右将是一个更重大的突破。为了接近实时地同化,产品应在24小时内可用,并且每次测量都应提供不确定度的系统和随机成分的估计。
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引用次数: 4
The application of least-square collocation and variance component estimation in crossover analysis of satellite altimetry observations and altimeter calibration 最小二乘配置和方差分量估计在卫星测高数据交叉分析和高度计定标中的应用
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1681873
Mahmoud Pirooznia, M. Raoofian Naeeni
ABSTRACT In this study, the collocation method accompanied with variance component estimation is used for least square adjustment of crossover observations in order to determine the effects of radial errors on the observations of satellite altimetry. The collocation is used for time series analysis of sea surface height observations both for predicting the possible missing observations in each cycle, and for approximating the observation of each cycle at crossover points. In addition, use is made of the variance component estimation to quantify the noise variance of observations and improve the least square evaluation of radial errors. For analysis of radial errors, two different approaches are followed, in the first approach, the radial errors are assumed to behave like a series of trigonometric function, the coefficients of which are unknowns which should be determined from observations. In the second approach, the values of radial errors, for ascending and descending passes are determined. Our results show the efficiency of collocation algorithm for highly accurate time series analysis of altimetry observations and moreover, they reveal the effectiveness of variance component estimation for true noise specification of observations which can significantly improve the results of least square adjustment. The outcome of this study can be used to calibration of altimeters. The numerical results indicate that the mean range biases of Topex/Poseidon, Jason 1-2 and ENVISAT in the six single and dual crossover points using the first and the second methods are about 0, 84, 33, 204 and 0, 98, 41, 286 mm, respectively.
摘要为了确定径向误差对卫星测高观测值的影响,本文采用搭配法结合方差分量估计对交叉观测值进行最小二乘平差。该搭配用于海面高度观测的时间序列分析,既可以预测每个周期可能缺失的观测值,也可以在交叉点近似每个周期的观测值。此外,利用方差分量估计来量化观测值的噪声方差,改进径向误差的最小二乘估计。对于径向误差的分析,采用了两种不同的方法,在第一种方法中,假设径向误差表现为一系列的三角函数,其系数是未知的,应该从观测中确定。在第二种方法中,确定上升和下降通道的径向误差值。结果表明,配置算法对高程观测数据进行高精度时间序列分析是有效的,同时,方差分量估计对观测数据的真实噪声规格的估计是有效的,可以显著改善最小二乘平差的结果。本研究结果可用于高度计的标定。结果表明,Topex/Poseidon、Jason 1-2和ENVISAT在6个单、双交叉点的平均距离偏差分别为0、84、33、204和0、98、41、286 mm。
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引用次数: 1
An assessment of the impact of oceanic initial conditions on the interaction of upper ocean with the tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea 海洋初始条件对阿拉伯海上层海洋与热带气旋相互作用影响的评估
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1658567
Tanuja Nigam, K. Prakash, V. Pant
ABSTRACT The Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) is utilised to estimate the cyclone-induced mixing and cooling associated with two tropical cyclones, namely Phet and Nilofar over the Arabian Sea (AS). Numerical experiments were carried out with realistic and idealistic oceanic conditions to assess the impact of oceanic initial condition and stratification on the interaction of upper ocean with the tropical cyclones in the AS. The model simulated profiles of temperature and baroclinic kinetic energy are analysed to examine the post-cyclonic cooling and vertical distribution of inertial kinetic energy which interacts with the upper-ocean stratification. Following the cyclone-induced upwelling, the inertial mixing acts to deepen the mixed layer depth (MLD) up to 50 and 100 m from its initial values of 15 and 22 m for the Phet and Nilofar, respectively. The analysis suggests that the combined effect of higher maximum sustained winds and slower translational speed of Nilofar cyclone leads to the excessive cooling (by 1.5°C) of the sea surface as compared to Phet. A decrement in the magnitude of cooling is observed when oceanic initial stratification was altered. The available baroclinic velocity shear at different depths found to modulate the magnitude of upper-ocean cooling in different model experiments.
利用区域海洋模拟系统(ROMS)对阿拉伯海(AS)上的两个热带气旋Phet和Nilofar相关的气旋诱导混合和冷却进行了估计。在实际和理想海洋条件下进行了数值试验,以评估海洋初始条件和分层对上层海洋与热带气旋相互作用的影响。分析了模式模拟的温度和斜压动能剖面,探讨了气旋后的冷却和与上层海洋分层相互作用的惯性动能垂直分布。在气旋引起的上升流之后,惯性混合作用使Phet和Nilofar的混合层深度(MLD)分别从初始值15和22 m增加到50和100 m。分析表明,与Phet相比,Nilofar气旋较高的最大持续风和较慢的平移速度的综合作用导致海面过度冷却(1.5°C)。当海洋初始分层发生改变时,可观察到降温幅度的减小。在不同的模式实验中发现,不同深度的可用斜压速度切变可以调节上层海洋冷却的幅度。
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引用次数: 7
Oil spill trajectory prediction with high-resolution ocean currents 用高分辨率洋流预测溢油轨迹
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2019.1606691
S. J. Prasad, P. A. Francis, T. B. Balakrishnan Nair, S. Shenoi, T. Vijayalakshmi
ABSTRACT Simulated ocean currents from ocean circulation models along with the surface winds are generally used to force an oil spill trajectory model. Ocean circulation is a key factor in determining the drift of the spilled marine pollutants. The simulations of the drift pattern of spilled oil, when forced by the ocean currents from two ocean models, are presented here. Merchant Vessel (MV) Rak sunk at 72.4865°E, 18.7715°N, on 4 August 2011. As per the information from Indian Coast Guard, approximately 122.5 tons of fuel oil was spilled from the vessel from 5 August 2011 to 12 August 2011. An oil spill trajectory model, General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME), was used to simulate the oil drift pattern from MV Rak from 1000 hours of 5 August 2011 to 1300 hours of 12 August 2011. GNOME was forced with winds from European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and ocean currents from Indian Ocean Forecasting System (INDOFOS) and High-resolution Operational Ocean Forecasting and reanalysis System (HOOFS). We found that the oil drift pattern obtained when forced with ocean currents from HOOFS was in better agreement with the actual track, compared to the one obtained while using INDOFOS currents.
从海洋环流模型中模拟的海流和海面风通常用于模拟溢油轨迹模型。海洋环流是决定泄漏海洋污染物漂移的关键因素。本文给出了两个海洋模型在洋流的作用下,对溢油漂移模式的模拟。商船(MV) Rak于2011年8月4日在东经72.4865°,北纬18.7715°沉没。根据印度海岸警卫队提供的信息,2011年8月5日至8月12日期间,约有122.5吨燃料油从该船泄漏。利用通用NOAA业务模拟环境(GNOME)的溢油轨迹模型,模拟了2011年8月5日1000时至2011年8月12日1300时从MV Rak的溢油漂移模式。GNOME受到来自欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的风和来自印度洋预报系统(INDOFOS)和高分辨率业务海洋预报和再分析系统(HOOFS)的洋流的推动。我们发现,与使用INDOFOS洋流时相比,在HOOFS洋流强迫下获得的油漂移模式与实际轨迹更吻合。
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引用次数: 5
Evaluating pressure gauges as a potential future replacement for electromagnetic cable observations of the Florida Current transport at 27°N 评估压力表作为未来27°N佛罗里达洋流输送电磁电缆观测的潜在替代
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-06-16 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1780757
C. Meinen, Ryan H. Smith, Rigoberto F. García
ABSTRACT For 30+ years, submarine cable voltage measurements have been a critical measurement system used to produce a highly valuable time series of daily Florida Current volume transport at 27°N in the Florida Straits. However, the high cost associated with replacing the measurement system, should the existing telecommunications cable break, represents a significant vulnerability to the continuation of this important transport time series. Six years of data from tide gauges near the ends of the cable at 27°N have been used to test the potential of a paired tide gauge system to replace the cable in the event of a future problem. Validations against the daily cable observations, and against snapshot transport estimates from ship sections, suggest that the tide gauges do represent a viable replacement, however, the accuracy of the transports determined from the tide gauges is lower than for the cable observations (2.7 Sv vs. 1.7 Sv, respectively). The tide gauges capture roughly 55% of the total variance observed by the cable. The correlation between the cable data and the tide gauge differences is fairly constant (r ≈ 0.75) after low-pass filtering the data at periods from 3 to 365 days, illustrating a lack of coherence sensitivity to those time scales.
30多年来,海底电缆电压测量一直是一个关键的测量系统,用于产生27°N佛罗里达海峡每日佛罗里达电流体积输送的非常有价值的时间序列。但是,如果现有的电信电缆断裂,更换测量系统的费用很高,这对这一重要的运输时间序列的继续是一个重大的弱点。在北纬27°电缆两端附近的潮汐测量仪收集了六年的数据,用于测试配对潮汐测量系统在未来出现问题时取代电缆的潜力。根据每日电缆观测和根据船段的快照传输估计进行验证,表明潮汐计确实是一种可行的替代方案,但是,潮汐计确定的传输精度低于电缆观测(分别为2.7 Sv和1.7 Sv)。潮汐计捕获了电缆观测到的总方差的大约55%。低通滤波后的数据周期为3 ~ 365天,电缆数据与验潮差之间的相关性相当恒定(r≈0.75),说明对这些时间尺度缺乏相干性敏感性。
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引用次数: 6
Indian Ocean wave forecasting system for wind waves: development and its validation 印度洋风浪预报系统:开发与验证
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-06-02 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1771811
P. G. Remya, T. Rabi Ranjan, P. Sirisha, R. Harikumar, T. M. Balakrishnan Nair
ABSTRACT Present study aims at the development of the Indian Ocean wave forecasting system for wind waves using WAVEWATCH-III wave model and a detailed validation of the same to ensure the model reliability for operational use. WAVEWATCH-III model has a multi-grid approach with resolution varying from 100 km (global grid) to 4 km (coastal grid), and is driven by the 10 m wind, produced by the ECMWF meteorological model. Two different observation data sets, provided by a network of buoys and Jason-2 altimeter, have been used for the evaluationof the model skill. The reliability of the wave model is tested separately for deep and for coastal waters, and reliable (correlation > 0.8 and Scatter Index < 30%) performance is found for both areas for the year 2016. A spatial validation using the satellite data also supported the reliability of the forecast in the IO. Verification during the extreme conditions also showed an accurate performance of the model in predicting the wave heights with correlation >0.9 and Scatter Index < 20%. The overall analysis endorses the model reliability over the IO, making this model very suitable, and hence it could be used for the operational forecasting purpose and other maritime services.
摘要:本研究旨在利用WAVEWATCH-III波浪模型开发印度洋风浪预报系统,并对其进行详细验证,以确保模型的可靠性。WAVEWATCH-III模式采用多网格方法,分辨率从100公里(全球网格)到4公里(沿海网格)不等,由ECMWF气象模式产生的10米风驱动。由浮标网络和Jason-2高度计提供的两个不同的观测数据集已被用于评估模式技能。波浪模型的可靠性分别在深水和沿海水域进行了测试,结果表明,2016年这两个地区的波浪模型都表现可靠(相关系数> 0.8,散射指数< 30%)。利用卫星数据进行的空间验证也支持了国际空间站预报的可靠性。在极端条件下的验证也表明,该模型对波高的预测精度较高,相关系数>0.9,散点指数< 20%。整体分析表明该模型的可靠性优于IO,因此该模型非常合适,可用于业务预测目的和其他海事服务。
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引用次数: 13
Development of a feature-oriented regional modelling system for the North Brazil Undercurrent region (1°–11°S) and its application to a process study on the genesis of the Potiguar Eddy 北巴西潜流区(1°-11°S)面向特征的区域模拟系统的建立及其在波提瓜尔涡旋成因过程研究中的应用
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-03-23 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1743049
Ana Paula Morais Krelling, A. Gangopadhyay, I. D. da Silveira, Felipe Vilela‐Silva
ABSTRACT Key elements of a Feature-oriented regional modelling system (FORMS) in the Western Equatorial Atlantic (1°–11°S) are developed for possible application in an operational forecast system as well as in process-oriented studies. This equatorial margin region is dominated by the northwestward flowing near surface North Brazil Undercurrent (NBUC) and the southeastward Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). Specifically, we investigate the genesis of a subsurface frontal meander of the NBUC, centred at about 4°S, 36.5°W, called the Potiguar Eddy (PE). The Feature Models (FMs) of NBUC and DWBC are first developed from observed velocity data, with temperature calculated through the thermal wind equation, and salinity from climatology. Two numerical experiments were then set up for the process study, (i) a realistic NBUC + DWBC experiment, with maximum depth of 5500 m, and (ii) a NBUC-only experiment, with maximum depth limited to 1500 m. Results conclude that the PE can be generated by a velocity field containing only the NBUC, and the DWBC – induced vertical shear seems to play a part on the eddy’s baroclinic characteristics (vertical extent and strength). This study highlights the potential of applicability of FORMS for operational forecasts and for process studies in similar regions of the world ocean where currents and topography interact to create permanent and/or semi-permanent eddies.
开发了西赤道大西洋(1°-11°S)面向特征的区域建模系统(FORMS)的关键要素,以便可能应用于业务预报系统以及面向过程的研究。赤道边缘地区以北巴西近地表潜流(NBUC)和西南深西边界流(DWBC)为主。具体来说,我们研究了NBUC地下锋面弯曲的成因,其中心位于约4°S, 36.5°W,称为波提瓜涡(PE)。NBUC和DWBC的特征模型(FMs)首先由观测到的速度数据建立,温度由热风方程计算,盐度由气候学计算。然后为过程研究设置了两个数值实验,(i)一个真实的NBUC + DWBC实验,最大深度为5500 m, (ii)一个只有NBUC的实验,最大深度限制为1500 m。结果表明,仅包含NBUC的速度场可以产生PE,而DWBC诱导的垂直切变似乎对涡旋的斜压特征(垂直范围和强度)起作用。这项研究强调了在洋流和地形相互作用形成永久和/或半永久涡流的世界海洋类似区域,应用FORMS进行业务预报和过程研究的潜力。
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引用次数: 6
Evaluating wind datasets for wave hindcasting in the NW Iberian Peninsula coast 评估伊比利亚半岛西北部海岸风数据集的波浪后推
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-03-14 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1738121
M. Viitak, P. Avilez-Valente, A. Bio, L. Bastos, I. Iglesias
ABSTRACT The available wind datasets can be exploited to support the setup of accurate wave models, able to reproduce and forecast extreme event scenarios. It is of utmost importance in the actual context of climate change. This study focuses on evaluating the performance of a numerical wave model, using different wind datasets, helping to create a tool to assess coastal risks, and further on to support the future implementation of reliable warning systems based on numerical models. The numerical model SWAN was implemented, configured and validated for the NW Iberian Peninsula coast, as a test case region. A period of two months, from December 2013 to January 2014, was simulated due to the winter storms that crossed the area. Six distinct wind datasets were selected to test their suitability in regional wave modelling. The results were validated against several sets of wave buoy data, considering wave parameters such as significant wave height, mean wave period and peak direction. The implemented wave model configuration allowed the representation of the wave evolution with relatively good accuracy. All the wind datasets were able to produce reasonably good wave condition estimates. The dataset that best represented the wave properties varied from one wave parameter to another, but the most reliable for the selected region was the reanalysis product generated at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
现有的风数据集可以用来支持精确的波浪模型的建立,能够重现和预测极端事件情景。在气候变化的实际背景下,这是极其重要的。本研究的重点是评估数值波浪模型的性能,使用不同的风数据集,帮助创建评估沿海风险的工具,并进一步支持基于数值模型的可靠预警系统的未来实施。SWAN数值模型在伊比利亚半岛西北部海岸作为测试用例区域进行了实施、配置和验证。2013年12月至2014年1月,由于冬季风暴穿过该地区,模拟了两个月的时间。选择了六个不同的风数据集来测试它们在区域波浪模拟中的适用性。考虑有效波高、平均波周期和波峰方向等波浪参数,利用多组波浪浮标数据对结果进行验证。所实现的波浪模型配置允许以相对较好的精度表示波浪的演变。所有的风数据集都能够产生相当好的波浪状况估计。最能代表波浪特性的数据集因波浪参数而异,但对于选定区域来说,最可靠的数据集是欧洲中期天气预报中心生成的再分析产品。
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引用次数: 7
Freshening of seawater in the Mahim Bay, Mumbai, India: Insight from an environmental isotope study 印度孟买Mahim湾的海水变新鲜:来自环境同位素研究的见解
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-03-11 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2020.1737344
J. Noble, Tirumalesh Keesari
ABSTRACT An environmental isotope study was conducted to assess the cause for the freshening of seawater observed in the Mahim Bay, Mumbai, India after a storm event during the southwest monsoon period. Water samples were collected from the various locations of the coastal water and the suspected inland water sources such as rain, river and groundwater and analysed for major ion species and stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H). Dissolved radon (222Rn) in the coastal water was monitored in-situ. Field monitoring survey in the coastal water indicated lower electrical conductivity (1,730 μS/cm) near Mahim Mosque compared to the surrounding shelf waters. Relatively high excess 222Rn activities (up to 55 Bq/m3) were observed in the Mahim Bay, even after 13 days of seawater freshening event. Based on the hydrochemical and isotope results, various prevailing hypotheses on the occurrence of low salinity water in the Mahim Bay were tested. It is inferred that the low salinity coastal water was associated with groundwater discharge occurring in the Mahim Bay and in the Mithi River and were unlikely due to the overflow of Vihar and Powai Lakes in the catchment of Mithi River and surface runoff because of the rain/storm events. Temporal variations of electrical conductivity and stable isotopic composition of coastal water in the Mahim Bay showed that the groundwater inputs were decreasing after the storm event. 222Rn was found to be a useful tracer for distinguishing the subsurface flow of water to the coastal system.
在西南季风期间,印度孟买Mahim湾的一场风暴过后,进行了一项环境同位素研究,以评估海水变新鲜的原因。从沿海水域和疑似内陆水源(如雨水、河流和地下水)的不同地点收集水样,分析主要离子种类和稳定同位素(δ18O和δ2H)。对近岸水体中的溶解氡(222Rn)进行了现场监测。现场监测显示,Mahim清真寺附近海域的电导率(1730 μS/cm)低于周边陆架水域。在Mahim湾观测到相对较高的过量222Rn活动(高达55 Bq/m3),即使在13天的海水净化事件之后。根据水化学和同位素结果,对马希姆湾低盐度水存在的各种普遍假设进行了检验。据推测,低盐度的沿海水与Mahim湾和Mithi河的地下水排放有关,不太可能是由于Mithi河集水区的Vihar和Powai湖溢出以及降雨/风暴事件造成的地表径流。马希姆湾沿岸水电导率和稳定同位素组成的时间变化表明,风暴事件后地下水输入减少。222Rn被发现是一种有用的示踪剂,用于区分向海岸系统的地下水流。
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引用次数: 0
The Stokes drift in ocean surface drift prediction 海洋表面漂移预测中的Stokes漂移
IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2020-03-09 DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2021.1872229
T. Tamtare, D. Dumont, C. Chavanne
ABSTRACT The importance of explicitly resolving the Stokes drift in ocean surface drift modelling is demonstrated by comparing four models with 58,612 observational data points obtained from undrogued drifting buoys in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada. Drift model inputs are obtained from regional atmosphere and ocean circulation, and spectral wave models. The control drift model considers near-surface currents provided by the top grid cell of the ocean circulation model, which is 5-m thick, and a correction term proportional to the near-surface wind. The three other drift models account for the unresolved near-surface current shear by extrapolating the near-surface currents to the surface assuming Ekman dynamics. Two of these models consider explicitly the Stokes drift, with and without a wind correction term. Proposed models reduce the mean separation distance between observed and predicted trajectories by 34–40% relative to the control model, on average, for forecast times ranging from 3 to 72 h. The best improvement with respect to all metrics used is, however, obtained for the model that takes into account the near-surface shear correction and the Stokes drift, without any wind correction term (skill score of 0.93 after 3 h and 0.81 after 72 h).
通过比较四个模型与加拿大圣劳伦斯河口和海湾未灌水漂流浮标的58,612个观测数据点,证明了明确解决Stokes漂移在海洋表面漂移建模中的重要性。漂移模式输入来自区域大气和海洋环流,以及谱波模式。控制漂移模型考虑了海洋环流模型顶格单元提供的近地面流,其厚度为5 m,并考虑了与近地面风成比例的校正项。其他三种漂移模型通过假设Ekman动力学将近地表流外推到地表来解释未解析的近地表流切变。其中两个模型明确地考虑了斯托克斯漂移,有和没有风修正项。在3至72小时的预测时间内,与控制模型相比,所提出的模型将观测轨迹与预测轨迹之间的平均分离距离平均减少了34-40%。然而,考虑近地面切变校正和Stokes漂移的模型在所有使用的指标方面取得了最好的改进,没有任何风校正项(3 h后的技能得分为0.93,72 h后的技能得分为0.81)。
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引用次数: 7
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