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Banking uncertainty and corporate financial constraints 银行业的不确定性和企业财务限制
Pub Date : 2024-01-27 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2938
Japan Huynh
This article investigates an essential channel through which uncertainty may harm the economy—firms' financing constraints. Unlike prior literature focusing on the aspect of aggregate economic policy uncertainty, we look into the dimension of disaggregate uncertainty in the banking system. Examining financial data of commercial banks and listed companies in Vietnam during 2008–2022, we document that banking uncertainty positively impacts corporate financial constraints. Moreover, we explore how firm-specific and macroeconomic factors interact with the relationship between uncertainty and financing constraints. Our analysis indicates that this link is more pronounced for non-state-owned firms, firms with more intangible assets, and firms listed on the Hanoi stock exchange. Meanwhile, macro shocks, such as the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic can strengthen the effect of banking uncertainty on financing constraints. Finally, we examine the mechanisms through which banking uncertainty causes an increase in firms' financial constraints. We document that banking uncertainty exacerbates financial constraints by raising the cost of external financing, not by lowering firm performance.
本文研究了不确定性可能损害经济的一个重要渠道--企业的融资约束。与以往侧重于总体经济政策不确定性方面的文献不同,我们研究了银行系统的分类不确定性维度。通过研究 2008-2022 年间越南商业银行和上市公司的财务数据,我们发现银行业的不确定性会对企业的财务约束产生积极影响。此外,我们还探讨了企业特定因素和宏观经济因素如何与不确定性和融资约束之间的关系相互作用。我们的分析表明,对于非国有企业、拥有更多无形资产的企业以及在河内证券交易所上市的企业来说,这种联系更为明显。同时,金融危机和 COVID-19 大流行等宏观冲击会加强银行业不确定性对融资约束的影响。最后,我们研究了银行业不确定性导致企业融资约束增加的机制。我们发现,银行业的不确定性会通过提高外部融资成本而不是通过降低企业绩效来加剧融资约束。
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引用次数: 0
Exchange rate misalignment and financial development in Africa 汇率失调与非洲金融发展
Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2935
Tii N. Nchofoung, Nathanael Ojong, Ladifatou Ndi Gbambie Gachili
We examine the effect of misaligned exchange rates on financial development in Africa. Results from quantile regression techniques and the IV Lewbel estimator reveal that exchange rate misalignment significantly hampers financial development on that continent. This result is robust across financial institutions and financial markets. We also show that while the effects of misaligned exchange rates are negative on financial institutions and positive on financial markets in African franc-zone countries, the effects are consistently negative across all financial sectors in the non-franc-zone countries there. When robustness assessment is done using quantile regression, the results show that the negative effect of misalignment on financial development is only feasible from the 75th percentile and higher in Africa in general and for the non-franc-zone countries in particular.
我们研究了汇率失调对非洲金融发展的影响。量化回归技术和 IV Lewbel 估计器的结果显示,汇率失调严重阻碍了非洲大陆的金融发展。这一结果在不同金融机构和金融市场之间都是稳健的。我们还发现,在非洲法郎区国家,汇率失调对金融机构的影响是负面的,对金融市场的影响是正面的,而在非法郎区国家,汇率失调对所有金融部门的影响都是负面的。在使用量化回归进行稳健性评估时,结果表明,在非洲,尤其是在非法郎区国家,汇率失调对金融发展的负面影响只有在第 75 百分位数以上才是可行的。
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引用次数: 0
Does institutional quality matter for renewable energy promotion in OECD economies? 机构质量对经合组织经济体推广可再生能源是否重要?
Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2926
Shuddhasattwa Rafiq, Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, Md. Samsul Alam, Khalid Hafeez, Muhammad Shafiullah
This study examines the effect of institutional quality on renewable energy promotion in OECD economies. The study employs annual data from 1980 to 2014 on 18 OECD economies. The robust panel unit root tests show that all the considered variables have a similar order of integration, indicating that they are nonstationary at their levels but stationary at the first-order differences. The panel cointegration test with structural breaks and cross-section dependence confirms a long-run equilibrium association between institutional quality, renewable energy consumption and control variables. The analysis of long-run estimations displays that better institutional quality makes a unique and substantial contribution to promoting renewable energy consumption. Overall, the study findings offer important policy implications highlighting the importance of institutional quality for the growth of renewable energy and a sustainable world.
本研究探讨了机构质量对经合组织经济体推广可再生能源的影响。研究采用了 1980 年至 2014 年 18 个经合组织经济体的年度数据。稳健的面板单位根检验表明,所有考虑的变量都具有相似的整合阶数,表明它们在水平上是非平稳的,但在一阶差分上是平稳的。带有结构断裂和横截面依赖性的面板协整检验证实了制度质量、可再生能源消费和控制变量之间的长期均衡关系。长期估计分析表明,更好的制度质量对促进可再生能源消费具有独特的实质性贡献。总之,研究结果提供了重要的政策含义,强调了制度质量对可再生能源增长和可持续世界的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Risk spillover measurement of carbon trading market considering susceptible factors: A network perspective 考虑易受影响因素的碳交易市场风险溢出测量:网络视角
Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2928
Qingli Dong, Lanlan Lian, Qichuan Jiang
An objective and robust network-based data-driven strategy is proposed to analyze risk spillovers in carbon markets. First, we characterize the causality network between the carbon market and potential associated markets using a data-driven fuzzy cognitive map approach. Second, network-based community detection is conducted to explore community structures that include carbon trading markets, and five market factors belonging to the same community as EU Allowances (EUA) are identified. Next, we conduct downside and upside-tail measurements of EUA risk spillover levels within the community based on estimates and fits of marginal and joint distributions for different market pairs. Finally, we point out that the market factor having the most significant upper-tail spillover effects on EUA is OILFUTURE, besides, EURUSD asset is found to be the best hedge for EUA futures among the detected market factors.
本文提出了一种客观、稳健的基于网络的数据驱动策略,用于分析碳市场的风险溢出效应。首先,我们利用数据驱动的模糊认知图谱方法描述了碳市场与潜在关联市场之间的因果关系网络。其次,通过基于网络的群落检测来探索包括碳交易市场在内的群落结构,并确定了与欧盟配额(EUA)属于同一群落的五个市场因素。接下来,我们根据对不同市场对的边际分布和联合分布的估计和拟合,对共同体内部的欧盟配额风险溢出水平进行下行和上行测量。最后,我们指出,对欧盟补贴具有最显著上尾溢出效应的市场因素是石油期货,此外,在检测到的市场因素中,欧元兑美元资产被认为是欧盟补贴期货的最佳对冲工具。
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引用次数: 0
Your gender identity is who you are: Female chief executive officers and corporate debt structure 你的性别认同就是你的身份:女性首席执行官与公司债务结构
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2923
Yuxuan Huang, Qi Zhu, Cheng Yan, Yeqin Zeng
Using a large sample of S&P 1500 firms during 1993–2021, we empirically examine the implications of CEO gender on corporate debt structure. We find that after controlling for endogeneity, firms managed by female CEOs issue less debt than those managed by male CEOs. Female CEOs being more risk averse than male CEOs is the underlying mechanism which drives the negative relation between female CEOs and firm leverage. Further, we find that the effect of CEO gender is more pronounced when the firm's CEO is younger, the litigation risk is higher, and the market is more competitive. In terms of debt structure, firms managed by female CEOs prefer to maintain positive debt capacity and have longer debt maturities. Finally, we show that CEO gender has a stronger impact on debt structure than CFO gender. Taken together, our evidence suggests that there exist gender differences in terms of corporate debt borrowing decision making.
我们使用 1993-2021 年间 S&P 1500 家公司的大量样本,实证研究了首席执行官性别对公司债务结构的影响。我们发现,在控制了内生性之后,由女性首席执行官管理的公司比由男性首席执行官管理的公司发行的债务要少。女性首席执行官比男性首席执行官更能规避风险,这是导致女性首席执行官与公司杠杆率之间负相关关系的根本机制。此外,我们还发现,当公司首席执行官更年轻、诉讼风险更高、市场竞争更激烈时,首席执行官性别的影响更为明显。在债务结构方面,由女性首席执行官管理的公司更倾向于保持正债务能力,并且债务期限更长。最后,我们发现首席执行官的性别比首席财务官的性别对债务结构的影响更大。总之,我们的证据表明,在企业债务借贷决策方面存在性别差异。
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引用次数: 0
Time-varying causality between investor sentiment an oil price: Does uncertainty matter? 投资者情绪与石油价格之间的时变因果关系:不确定性是否重要?
Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2922
Mohamed Sahbi Nakhli, Khaled Mokni, Manel Youssef
While the oil market-investors sentiment (IS) has been considerably investigated, almost all studies have focused on the assumption of a constant relationship, and no attention has been given to the causality analysis in a time-varying approach. To fill this gap, this study investigates the predictive power between IS and oil price based on a time-varying Granger causality test. Using data over the period 1987–2020, we find evidence of significant bidirectional asymmetric time-varying causal influences between investor sentiment and oil prices, suggesting that oil prices may predict investor sentiment and vice versa. Besides, the results suggest that bearish (bullish) investor sentiment has positive (negative) influences on oil prices during major economic and political events. In contrast, oil price exerts an influence on the sentiment which switches between positive and negative from one period to another. Further analysis shows that uncertainty related to the oil and equity markets can be a driver of the predictive power of oil prices on the bearish IS.
虽然对石油市场-投资者情绪(IS)进行了大量研究,但几乎所有研究都集中在恒定关系的假设上,而没有关注时变方法中的因果关系分析。为了填补这一空白,本研究在时变格兰杰因果检验的基础上研究了 IS 与石油价格之间的预测能力。利用 1987-2020 年期间的数据,我们发现投资者情绪与石油价格之间存在显著的双向非对称时变因果影响,表明石油价格可能会预测投资者情绪,反之亦然。此外,研究结果表明,在重大经济和政治事件期间,看跌(看涨)投资者情绪对油价有积极(消极)影响。相反,油价对投资者情绪的影响则在正负之间转换。进一步的分析表明,与石油和股票市场相关的不确定性可以成为油价对看跌 IS 的预测力的驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
U.S. economic uncertainty shocks and extreme capital flows episodes: An empirical analysis of emerging and developing economies 美国经济不确定性冲击和极端资本流动事件:对新兴经济体和发展中经济体的实证分析
Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2914
Xinqian Du, Tian Pu
We use the two-way fixed-effect panel logit model to examine the impact of U.S. economic uncertainty shocks on the probability of extreme capital flow episodes based on quarterly data from 71 emerging and developing economies from 1998Q1 to 2022Q4. According to the findings, U.S. economic uncertainty shocks has a negative effect on the probability of gross capital surges, gross capital flight, and net capital surges, and has a positive effect on the probability of gross capital sudden stops, gross capital retrenchment, and net capital sudden stops. Moreover, we find differences in the factors affecting net and gross capital flows, which are usually more closely related to earnings factors dominated by real economic growth rates. Additionally, the sample's heterogeneity is analysed in accordance with the exchange rate regimes. Our results differ from traditional views, as floating exchange rates do not act as a buffer against extreme capital flows. Finally, capital flows are classified into direct investment, other investment, and portfolio investment, and it is found that U.S. economic uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on the extreme flow episodes of other and portfolio investment.
我们基于71个新兴经济体和发展中经济体1998Q1至2022Q4的季度数据,采用双向固定效应面板Logit模型检验了美国经济不确定性冲击对极端资本流动事件发生概率的影响。研究结果表明,美国经济不确定性冲击对总资本激增、总资本外逃和净资本激增的概率有负向影响,对总资本突然停止、总资本缩减和净资本突然停止的概率有正向影响。此外,我们还发现影响净资本流动和总资本流动的因素存在差异,这些因素通常与实际经济增长率主导的收益因素关系更为密切。此外,我们还根据汇率制度分析了样本的异质性。我们的结果与传统观点不同,因为浮动汇率并不能对极端资本流动起到缓冲作用。最后,我们将资本流动分为直接投资、其他投资和证券投资,发现美国经济的不确定性冲击对其他投资和证券投资的极端流动事件有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
How do credit ratings affect corporate investment efficiency? 信用评级如何影响企业投资效率?
Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2920
Di Xiao, Xinyu Yu
This study examines the impact of credit ratings on the efficiency of firms' investments. Using a large sample of US firms, we find a positive relationship between the existence of credit ratings and investment efficiency. The cross-sectional analyses show the positive relationship is more pronounced for firms with greater information asymmetry and weaker corporate governance. Our results are robust to different methods to address potential endogeneity concerns, alternative measures of key variables, and the inclusion of additional control variables. Overall, the findings support the notion that credit rating agencies enhance information transparency and external monitoring, thereby allowing rated firms to promote investment efficiency. The findings contribute to our understanding of the significant role played by credit rating agencies in shaping firms' investment behaviour and efficiency.
本研究探讨了信用评级对企业投资效率的影响。通过对大量美国公司进行抽样调查,我们发现信用评级的存在与投资效率之间存在正相关关系。横截面分析表明,对于信息不对称程度较高、公司治理较弱的公司,这种正相关关系更为明显。我们采用不同的方法来解决潜在的内生性问题、对关键变量进行替代测量以及纳入额外的控制变量,结果都是稳健的。总体而言,研究结果支持这样一种观点,即信用评级机构提高了信息透明度和外部监督,从而使被评级公司提高了投资效率。这些发现有助于我们理解信用评级机构在塑造企业投资行为和投资效率方面所发挥的重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
How do intangible assets and financial constraints affect stock returns in Vietnam before and during the COVID-19 pandemic? 在 COVID-19 大流行之前和期间,无形资产和财务限制如何影响越南的股票回报?
Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2916
Khoa Dang Duong, Tran Ngoc Huynh, Linh Thi Diem Truong
We are the first to determine the effect of intangible intensity (INTANG) on cross-sectional stock returns after controlling financial constraints in the Vietnam stock market. Our sample includes 37,938 firm-month observations from 488 non-financial firms from October 2008 to February 2021. We employ Fama and MacBeth regressions and portfolio analysis methodologies to estimate the impact of intangible assets and financial constraints on stock returns. Our findings show that a percentage increase in INTANG empowers stock returns by 0.922%. Meanwhile, the cross-sectional stock returns decrease by 0.506% when the financial constraints index increases by a percentage point. Moreover, the results suggest that intangible assets in the entire sample and before COVID-19 empower the stock return cross-sectionally. Our findings are robust after employing alternative INTANG proxies. Our findings support the risk-based explanation, the pecking order theory, and prior literature. Our findings suggest governments should promote intellectual property and copyright regulations to encourage Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to expand intangible assets. Furthermore, investors can utilize our suggested models to construct their portfolios efficiently.
我们首次确定了越南股市在控制财务约束后无形资产强度(INTANG)对横截面股票回报率的影响。我们的样本包括 2008 年 10 月至 2021 年 2 月期间 488 家非金融公司的 37938 个公司月观测值。我们采用 Fama 和 MacBeth 回归以及投资组合分析方法来估计无形资产和财务约束对股票回报率的影响。我们的研究结果表明,INTANG 每增加一个百分比,股票回报率就会提高 0.922%。同时,当财务约束指数增加一个百分点时,横截面股票回报率下降 0.506%。此外,结果表明,在整个样本中和 COVID-19 之前,无形资产增强了横截面股票回报率。在使用其他 INTANG 代用指标后,我们的研究结果是稳健的。我们的研究结果支持基于风险的解释、啄食顺序理论和先前的文献。我们的研究结果表明,政府应促进知识产权和版权法规,鼓励中小企业扩大无形资产。此外,投资者可以利用我们建议的模型有效地构建投资组合。
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引用次数: 0
Is illiquidity priced in an international factor pricing model? A dynamic panel data application with robust IV 非流动性是否在国际要素定价模型中定价?具有鲁棒性的动态面板数据应用
Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2919
François-Eric Racicot, William F. Rentz, Raymond Théoret
In the setting of a dynamic panel data framework, we investigate the international five-factor Fama–French (2017) model augmented with traditional illiquidity factors (Amihud, Journal of Financial Markets, 2002, 5, 31–56; Amihud, Critical Finance Review, 2019, 8, 203–221; Pástor and Stambaugh, Journal of Political Economy, 2003, 111, 642–685; Pástor and Stambaugh, Critical Finance Review, 2019, 8, 277–299) to determine if any of these factors are priced. Since illiquidity measures are endogenous, we propose an algorithm that generates robust instruments which are combined with a GMM estimator to cope with both the endogeneity issues surrounding illiquidity and other eventual specification errors. In this dynamic framework, we generally find that the most significant factors correspond to market and size but illiquidity may matter depending on the level of the beta. We find that illiquidity has more impact on returns in expansion than in recession. However, the bid-ask spread seems to behave differently from the other illiquidity measures.
在动态面板数据框架的设置下,我们研究了国际五因素Fama-French(2017)模型与传统非流动性因素的增强(Amihud, Journal of Financial Markets, 2002, 5,31 - 56;《金融评论》,2013年第1期,第3 - 6页;Pástor and Stambaugh, Journal of Political economics, 2003, 111, 642-685;Pástor and Stambaugh, Critical Finance Review, 2019, 8,277 - 299)来确定这些因素是否被定价。由于非流动性措施是内生的,我们提出了一种算法,该算法生成与GMM估计器相结合的鲁棒工具,以应对围绕非流动性和其他最终规格误差的内生性问题。在这个动态框架中,我们通常发现最重要的因素对应于市场和规模,但非流动性可能取决于beta的水平。我们发现,在扩张时期,非流动性对回报的影响大于衰退时期。然而,买卖价差的表现似乎与其他非流动性指标不同。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Finance and Economics
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