The priority heuristic is a lexicographic semi-order for choosing between gambles. It has merits such as predicting, out-of-sample, people's majority choice more accurately than benchmarks such as prospect theory, having been axiomatized, and logically implying major violations of expected utility theory. The heuristic has shortcomings too, such as failing to account for individual differences and intricate choice patterns, and predicting less accurately than various model ensembles and neural networks in some environments. This note focuses on an important purported shortcoming of the heuristic, that it cannot produce valuations of gambles. I point out that the certainty equivalent of a gamble for the priority heuristic is known and suggest that this fact can be used to enhance the scope of the heuristic. Indeed, by making simple auxiliary assumptions and calculations, I demonstrate that the priority heuristic can explain the Saint Petersburg paradox and the equity premium puzzle, and to do so arguably more parsimoniously and plausibly than standard approaches.
Two theories of current interest and of mathematical and computational substance concerning knowledge assessment in education are discussed. These are the theory of knowledge structures and the theory of Bayesian networks as specifically related to educational assessment. In four separate sections, the two theories are compared by considering the sets of variables involved in their models, the set-theoretical and relational constructs defined on those variables, the probabilistic assumptions and properties, and the problems addressed by the theories in constructing their models. For the comparison, a common-base system of symbols and terms is adopted, which overcomes the peculiarities of expression in the corresponding streams of literature. This system gives us a better recognition of the similarities and differences between the two paradigms, and a precise appreciation of their arguments and abilities.
The Rasch model is the most prominent member of the class of latent trait models that are in common use. The main reason is that it can be considered as a measurement model that allows to separate person and item parameters, a feature that is referred to as invariance of comparisons or specific objectivity. It is shown that the property is not an exclusive trait of Rasch type models but is also found in alternative latent trait models. It is distinguished between separability in the theoretical measurement model and empirical separability with empirical separability meaning that parameters can be estimated without reference to the other group of parameters. A new type of pairwise estimator with this property is proposed that can be used also in alternative models. Separability is considered in binary models as well as in polytomous models.
Think about a thought. Easy to do but where does the thought come from? How is it created? Can it be measured? If so what in the mind is measured? This presentation describes a method for answering these basic questions. The answers derive from a new experimental method called Directly Measured Stimulus Differences (DMSD) and a new theory of mental measurement, a cybernetic process, for the creation of thought. The ideas of Prime Thought and Prime Mind are introduced.