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IFNL4 genotype and other personal characteristics to predict response to 8-week sofosbuvir-based treatment for chronic hepatitis C 预测慢性丙型肝炎索非布韦 8 周治疗反应的 IFNL4 基因型和其他个人特征
IF 14.3 1区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106258

Background

Shorter duration therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection might reduce treatment costs and increase the number of patients treated and cured. We determined factors associated with treatment response after an 8-week sofosbuvir-based therapy and developed a simple model to predict an individual’s likelihood of treatment success.

Methods

Among 2907 patients who received ledipasvir/sofosbuvir for 8 weeks, we determined failure rates by demographic and clinical characteristics, and IFNL4-∆G/TT genotype. We estimated the average IFNL4 genotype-related treatment failure rate in major ancestry groups by applying our IFNL4 genotype results to genotype distributions from reference populations. We created a treatment response model based on three personal characteristics.

Results

Overall, 4.4% of the patients failed treatment. We observed significantly lower failure rates for persons <50 years (1.6%), females (2.6%), those carrying the IFNL4-TT/TT genotype (1.8%), those with HCV RNA <5.8 log10 copies/mL (2.0%) or HCV genotype-1B infection (2.6%). In a model based on ancestry, age and sex, the predicted probability of treatment failure ranged from 0.5% among females of East Asian ancestry <50 years of age to 8.5% among males of African ancestry age ≥65 years.

Conclusion

Applying this algorithm at the point-of-care might facilitate HCV elimination, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

背景:缩短丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)感染的治疗时间可降低治疗成本,增加治疗和治愈患者的数量。我们确定了基于索非布韦的 8 周治疗后治疗反应的相关因素,并建立了一个简单的模型来预测个人治疗成功的可能性:在 2907 名接受了 ledipasvir/sofosbuvir 8 周治疗的患者中,我们根据人口统计学特征、临床特征和 IFNL4-∆G/TT 基因型确定了失败率。我们将 IFNL4 基因型结果应用于参考人群的基因型分布,从而估算出主要血统群体中与 IFNL4 基因型相关的平均治疗失败率。我们根据三个个人特征创建了一个治疗反应模型:结果:总体而言,4.4% 的患者治疗失败。我们观察到,10拷贝数/毫升(2.0%)或HCV基因型-1B感染者(2.6%)的治疗失败率明显较低。在基于血统、年龄和性别的模型中,东亚血统 65 岁女性的预测治疗失败概率为 0.5%:结论:在医疗点应用该算法可能有助于消灭 HCV,尤其是在中低收入国家。
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引用次数: 0
Indirect effectiveness of a novel SAR-COV-2 vaccine (SCB-2019) in unvaccinated household contacts in the Philippines: A cluster randomised analysis 新型 SAR-COV-2 疫苗 (SCB-2019) 在菲律宾未接种疫苗的家庭接触者中的间接效果:分组随机分析。
IF 14.3 1区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106260

Background

Though observational evidence supports indirect effects of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, randomised experiments are lacking. To address this gap, the double-blinded, prospective follow-up of the household contacts (HHCs) of Philippine participants of the individually-randomised, placebo-controlled trial of the adjuvanted-subunit protein COVID-19 vaccine, SCB-2019, (EudraCT, 2020–004272–17; ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04672395) was analyzed in a cluster-randomised fashion.

Methods

Over an eight-week period, HHCs were followed by rRT-PCR and paired rapid antibody tests (RATs) to detect symptomatic (SCI, primary) and all (ACI, secondary) SARS-CoV-2 infection. A standard analysis estimated the indirect effectiveness of SCB-2019 for each endpoint, excluding HHC RAT-positive at enrollment. A secondary analysis employed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) results to correct for suspected bias.

Findings

SCB-2019 (N = 3470) and placebo (N = 3225) exposed HHCs contributed to at least one analysis. The standard analysis estimated that SCB-2019 reduced the risk of SCI by 83% (95% confidence/credible interval [CI: 32% to 96%), with no effect against ACI. The bias-corrected relative risk reduction was 97% (95% CI: 74% to 100%) for SCI and 79% (95% CI: 14% to 96%) for ACI, with an estimated one SARS-CoV-2 infection prevented per 4.8 households where one member received SCB-2019.

Interpretation

SCB-2019 demonstrated bias-corrected indirect effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection among HHC, even at a modest coverage level in the household (approximately 25%). Further research into the indirect effects of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is needed to optimize the impact of limited doses in low and middle-income settings.

背景:尽管观察证据支持 SARS-CoV-2 疫苗的间接效果,但随机试验却缺乏证据。为了填补这一空白,我们以分组随机的方式分析了单独随机、安慰剂对照的 COVID-19 佐剂亚单位蛋白疫苗 SCB-2019 试验(EudraCT,2020-004272-17;ClinicalTrials.gov,NCT04672395)菲律宾参与者的家庭接触者(HHC)的双盲、前瞻性随访情况:在为期八周的时间里,通过 rRT-PCR 和配对快速抗体检测 (RAT) 对高危人群进行随访,以检测无症状(SCI,原发性)和全部(ACI,继发性)SARS-CoV-2 感染。一项标准分析估计了 SCB-2019 对每个终点的间接有效性,但不包括入组时 RAT 阳性的 HHC。辅助分析采用酶联免疫吸附试验(ELISA)结果来纠正疑似偏差:SCB-2019(N=3470)和安慰剂(N=3225)暴露的 HHC 至少参与了一项分析。标准分析估计 SCB-2019 可将 SCI 风险降低 83%(95% 置信度/可信区间 [CI:32% 至 96%]),对 ACI 没有影响。经偏差校正后,SCI 的相对风险降低率为 97%(95% CI:74% 至 100%),ACI 的相对风险降低率为 79%(95% CI:14% 至 96%),估计每 4.8 个家庭成员中有一人接受 SCB-2019 治疗的家庭可预防一次 SARS-CoV-2 感染:SCB-2019经偏差校正后显示出对高危人群感染SARS-CoV-2的间接效果,即使家庭覆盖率不高(约25%)也是如此。需要进一步研究SARS-CoV-2疫苗的间接效果,以优化有限剂量在中低收入环境中的影响:资金来源:Clover 生物制药公司和流行病防备创新联盟。
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引用次数: 0
Increased 30-day all-cause mortality associated with Gram-negative bloodstream infections in England during the COVID-19 pandemic 在 COVID-19 大流行期间,英格兰与革兰氏阴性血流感染相关的 30 天全因死亡率增加。
IF 14.3 1区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106256

Background

Our aim was to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in patients hospitalised with Gram-negative bloodstream infections (GNBSIs).

Methods

A retrospective cohort study including cases of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella species and Pseudomonas aeruginosa in England (January 2015–December 2021) reported to UKHSA’s Second Generation Surveillance System. The outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Multivariable logistic regression models were built, and adjusted Odds Ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals were reported.

Results

Total E. coli, Klebsiella spp. and P. aeruginosa infections were 206,030, 53,819 and 21,129, respectively. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, odds of death during the pandemic (March 2020 onwards) in E. coli, Klebsiella spp. and P. aeruginosa infections with no COVID-19 infection within 28-days of onset were 1.13 (1.08–1.18), 1.15 (1.07–1.25) and 1.09 (0.97–1.22), while odds in GNBSIs with an associated COVID-19 infection were 2.45 (2.26–2.66), 2.96 (2.62–3.34) and 3.15 (2.61–3.80), respectively. Asian patients with an associated COVID-19 infection were more likely to die during the pandemic compared to White patients (E. coli: OR 1.28 (0.95–1.71); Klebsiella spp. OR 1.59 (1.20–2.11); P. aeruginosa: OR 2.02 (1.23–3.31)).

Conclusions

Patients suffering from a GNBSI had increased risk of death during the pandemic, with the risk higher in patients with an associated COVID-19 infection.

背景我们的目的是评估 COVID-19 大流行对住院革兰氏阴性血流感染(GNBSI)患者死亡率的影响:方法:一项回顾性队列研究,包括向英国卫生与健康协会第二代监测系统报告的英国大肠埃希菌、克雷伯氏菌和铜绿假单胞菌病例(2015年1月至2021年12月)。结果为 30 天全因死亡率。建立了多变量逻辑回归模型,并报告了调整后的比值比(ORs)和 95% 的置信区间:结果:大肠杆菌、克雷伯氏菌和铜绿假单胞菌感染总数分别为 206,030 例、53,819 例和 21,129 例。与大流行前相比,在大流行期间(2020 年 3 月起),在发病 28 天内未感染 COVID-19 的大肠杆菌、克雷伯氏菌属和铜绿假单胞菌感染者的死亡几率为 1.13(1.08-1.18)、1.15(1.07-1.25)和 1.09(0.97-1.22),而伴有 COVID-19 感染的 GNBSI 的几率分别为 2.45(2.26-2.66)、2.96(2.62-3.34)和 3.15(2.61-3.80)。与白人患者相比,感染 COVID-19 的亚裔患者在大流行期间死亡的几率更高(大肠杆菌:OR 1.28(0.95)):大肠杆菌:OR 1.28 (0.95-1.71);克雷伯氏菌:OR 1.59 (1.20-2.11);铜绿假单胞菌:OR 2.02 (1.23-3.31)):结论:大流行期间,GNBSI 患者的死亡风险增加,伴有 COVID-19 感染的患者死亡风险更高。
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引用次数: 0
Favipiravir for COVID-19 in adults in the community in PRINCIPLE, an open-label, randomised, controlled, adaptive platform trial of short- and longer-term outcomes PRINCIPLE 是一项开放标签、随机对照、适应性平台试验,对短期和长期疗效进行研究。
IF 14.3 1区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106248

Background

Evidence for the effect of favipiravir treatment of acute COVID-19 on recovery, hospital admissions and longer-term outcomes in community settings is limited.

Methods

In this multicentre. open-label, multi-arm, adaptive platform randomised controlled trial participants aged ≥18 years in the community with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 and symptoms lasting ≤14 days were randomised to: usual care; usual care plus favipiravir tablets (loading dose of 3600 mg in divided doses on day one, then 800 mg twice a day for four days); or, usual care plus other interventions. Co-primary endpoints were time to first self-reported recovery and hospitalisation/death related to COVID-19, within 28 days, analysed using Bayesian models. Recovery at six months was the primary longer-term outcome. Trial registration: ISRCTN86534580.

Findings

The primary analysis model included 8811 SARS-CoV-2 positive mostly COVID vaccinated participants, randomised to favipiravir (n = 1829), usual care (n = 3256), and other treatments (n = 3726). Time to self-reported recovery was shorter in the favipiravir group than usual care (estimated hazard ratio 1·23 [95% credible interval 1·14 to 1·33]), a reduction of 2·98 days [1·99 to 3·94] from 16 days in median time to self-reported recovery for favipiravir versus usual care alone. COVID-19 related hospitalisations/deaths were similar (estimated odds ratio 0·99 [0·61 to 1·61]; estimated difference 0% [−0·9% to 0·6%]). 14 serious adverse events occurred in the favipiravir group and 4 in usual care. By six months, the proportion feeling fully recovered was 74·9% for favipiravir versus 71·3% for usual care (RR = 1·05, [1·02 to 1·08]).

Interpretation

In this open-label trial in a largely vaccinated population with COVID-19 in the community, favipiravir did not reduce hospital admissions, but shortened time to recovery and had a marginal positive impact on long term outcomes.

背景:在社区环境中,法非拉韦治疗急性COVID-19对康复、入院和长期疗效的影响证据有限:在这项多中心、开放标签、多臂、适应性平台随机对照试验中,年龄≥18岁、SARS-CoV-2检测呈阳性且症状持续时间≤14天的社区参与者被随机分配到:常规治疗;常规治疗加法非拉韦片(第一天分次服用3600毫克的负荷剂量,然后在四天内每天两次,每次800毫克);或常规治疗加其他干预措施。共同主要终点是28天内首次自我报告痊愈和因COVID-19住院/死亡的时间,采用贝叶斯模型进行分析。6个月后的康复是主要的长期结果:ISRCTN86534580.Findings:主要分析模型包括8811名SARS-CoV-2阳性、大部分接种过COVID疫苗的参与者,他们随机接受了法非拉韦(1829人)、常规治疗(3256人)和其他治疗(3726人)。与常规治疗相比,法匹拉韦组的自我报告康复时间更短(估计危险比为1-23[95%可信区间为1-14至1-33]),与常规治疗相比,法匹拉韦组的自我报告康复时间中位数从16天缩短了2-98天[1-99至3-94]。与COVID-19相关的住院/死亡情况相似(估计几率比0-99 [0-61至1-61];估计差异0% [-0-9%至0-6%])。法非拉韦组发生了14起严重不良事件,常规治疗组发生了4起。6个月后,感觉完全康复的比例为:法非拉韦组74-9%,常规治疗组71-3%(RR=1-05,[1-02至1-08]):这项开放标签试验主要针对社区中接种过COVID-19疫苗的人群,在这项试验中,法匹拉韦未减少入院人数,但缩短了康复时间,并对长期疗效产生了微弱的积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Prevalence and impact of persistent symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers: A cross-sectional survey in the SIREN cohort 医护人员感染 SARS-CoV-2 后持续症状的发生率和影响:SIREN 队列的横断面调查。
IF 14.3 1区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106259
<div><h3>Introduction</h3><p>Following SARS-CoV-2 infection, some patients experience a range of long-lasting symptoms, with a specific burden on their lives and ability to work.</p></div><div><h3>Aim</h3><p>We describe the prevalence and impact of persistent symptoms pre-/post-vaccination in SIREN study participants.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>A cross-sectional study of SARS-CoV-2 positive participants was carried out within SIREN, a frequently tested UK healthcare worker cohort with vaccination and demographic data available. Participants with a SARS-CoV-2 positive PCR or anti-SARS-CoV-2 sample between 01 March 2020 and 31 September 2022 were asked via a questionnaire about symptoms and days absent from work following infection. Responses were excluded if infection dates were inconsistent with study records or missing key data. Symptom type/duration and whether infection occurred pre-/post-vaccination and during which variant period were described. Logistic regression was used to estimate factors associated with persistent symptoms (>12 weeks), adjusting for vaccination and demographic factors. The median days absent from work were also determined.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>Of 16,599 invitations, 6677 participants responded, and 5053 were included in the analysis. The prevalence of persistent symptoms (symptoms lasting over 12 weeks) differed by infection episode; highest for first infections (32.7%; 1557/4767) compared to second (21.6%; 214/991) and third infections (21.6%; 16/74). Most frequently reported symptoms were fatigue, tiredness, shortness of breath and difficulty concentrating. A higher prevalence of persistent symptoms was reported during the Wild-type variant period compared to the other variant periods (52.9% Wild-type vs. 20.7% Omicron, for any symptom reported during their first infection). Overall, persistent symptoms were higher among unvaccinated participants (unvaccinated 38.1% vs vaccinated 22.0%). Multivariable analysis showed that participants were less likely to report persistent symptoms in infections occurring after vaccination compared to those with an infection before vaccination in the Alpha/Delta and Omicron periods (Alpha/Delta: adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 0.66, CI 95% 0.51–0.87, p = aOR 0.07, CI 95% 0.01–0.65, p = 0.02). About half of participants reported that their persistent symptoms impacted their day-to-day (51.8%) and work-related (42.1%) activities ‘a little’, and 24.0% and 14.4% reported that the impact was ‘A lot’. 8.9% reported they had reduced their working hours, and 13.9% had changed their working pattern.</p></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><p>Persistent symptoms were frequent in our cohort, and there was a reduction in symptom duration in those with multiple infection episodes during later variant periods and post-vaccination. The impact of persistent symptoms resulting in reducing working hours or adjusting working patterns has important implications for workforce resilience. UK health
感染 SARS-CoV-2 后,一些患者会出现一系列持久性症状,对他们的生活和工作能力造成特定的负担。我们描述了 SIREN 研究参与者在接种疫苗前后持续症状的发生率和影响。我们在 SIREN 中对 SARS-CoV-2 阳性参与者进行了一项横断面研究,SIREN 是英国医疗保健工作者的一个经常接受测试的群体,有疫苗接种和人口统计学数据。在 2020 年 3 月 1 日至 2022 年 9 月 31 日期间,对 PCR 或抗 SARS-CoV-2 样本呈 SARS-CoV-2 阳性的参与者进行了问卷调查,询问他们感染后的症状和缺勤天数。如果感染日期与研究记录不一致或关键数据缺失,则排除答复。对症状类型/持续时间、感染是否发生在接种疫苗前/后以及在哪个变异时期进行了描述。逻辑回归用于估计与持续症状(>12 周)相关的因素,并对疫苗接种和人口统计学因素进行了调整。同时还确定了缺勤天数的中位数。在发出的 16,599 份邀请函中,有 6,677 人做出了回复,其中 5,053 人被纳入分析范围。持续症状(症状持续 12 周以上)的发生率因感染次数而异;首次感染的发生率最高(32.7%;1 557/4 767 人),而第二次感染(21.6%;214/991 人)和第三次感染(21.6%;16/74 人)的发生率最低。最常报告的症状是疲劳、疲倦、呼吸急促和注意力难以集中。与其他变异期相比,野生型变异期报告的持续症状发生率更高(就首次感染期间报告的任何症状而言,野生型为 52.9%,而欧米茄为 20.7%)。总体而言,未接种疫苗的参与者出现持续症状的比例较高(未接种疫苗者为 38.1%,接种疫苗者为 22.0%)。多变量分析显示,在阿尔法/德尔塔期和奥密克隆期,接种疫苗后发生感染的参与者报告持续症状的几率低于接种疫苗前发生感染的参与者(阿尔法/德尔塔期:调整后的比值比 (aOR) 0.66,CI 95% 0.51-0.87,p= aOR 0.07,CI 95% 0.01-0.65,p=0.02)。约有一半的参与者表示,持续性症状对他们的日常活动(51.8%)和工作相关活动(42.1%)有 "一点 "影响,24.0% 和 14.4%的参与者表示影响 "很大"。8.9%的人表示他们减少了工作时间,13.9%的人改变了工作模式。我们的队列中经常出现持续性症状,在多次感染、后期变异期和接种疫苗后,症状持续时间有所缩短。持续症状导致减少工作时间或调整工作模式,这对劳动力的恢复能力有重要影响。大流行期间,英国医护人员的接触率很高,造成了巨大的负担。数据和材料的可用性:匿名数据将根据合理要求提供给可信赖的研究人员进行二次分析。
{"title":"Prevalence and impact of persistent symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers: A cross-sectional survey in the SIREN cohort","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106259","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106259","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Introduction&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;Following SARS-CoV-2 infection, some patients experience a range of long-lasting symptoms, with a specific burden on their lives and ability to work.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Aim&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;We describe the prevalence and impact of persistent symptoms pre-/post-vaccination in SIREN study participants.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;A cross-sectional study of SARS-CoV-2 positive participants was carried out within SIREN, a frequently tested UK healthcare worker cohort with vaccination and demographic data available. Participants with a SARS-CoV-2 positive PCR or anti-SARS-CoV-2 sample between 01 March 2020 and 31 September 2022 were asked via a questionnaire about symptoms and days absent from work following infection. Responses were excluded if infection dates were inconsistent with study records or missing key data. Symptom type/duration and whether infection occurred pre-/post-vaccination and during which variant period were described. Logistic regression was used to estimate factors associated with persistent symptoms (&gt;12 weeks), adjusting for vaccination and demographic factors. The median days absent from work were also determined.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Results&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;Of 16,599 invitations, 6677 participants responded, and 5053 were included in the analysis. The prevalence of persistent symptoms (symptoms lasting over 12 weeks) differed by infection episode; highest for first infections (32.7%; 1557/4767) compared to second (21.6%; 214/991) and third infections (21.6%; 16/74). Most frequently reported symptoms were fatigue, tiredness, shortness of breath and difficulty concentrating. A higher prevalence of persistent symptoms was reported during the Wild-type variant period compared to the other variant periods (52.9% Wild-type vs. 20.7% Omicron, for any symptom reported during their first infection). Overall, persistent symptoms were higher among unvaccinated participants (unvaccinated 38.1% vs vaccinated 22.0%). Multivariable analysis showed that participants were less likely to report persistent symptoms in infections occurring after vaccination compared to those with an infection before vaccination in the Alpha/Delta and Omicron periods (Alpha/Delta: adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 0.66, CI 95% 0.51–0.87, p = aOR 0.07, CI 95% 0.01–0.65, p = 0.02). About half of participants reported that their persistent symptoms impacted their day-to-day (51.8%) and work-related (42.1%) activities ‘a little’, and 24.0% and 14.4% reported that the impact was ‘A lot’. 8.9% reported they had reduced their working hours, and 13.9% had changed their working pattern.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Discussion&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;Persistent symptoms were frequent in our cohort, and there was a reduction in symptom duration in those with multiple infection episodes during later variant periods and post-vaccination. The impact of persistent symptoms resulting in reducing working hours or adjusting working patterns has important implications for workforce resilience. UK health","PeriodicalId":50180,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":14.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163445324001932/pdfft?md5=e3ea33cae42062e71947cf9c7d08a942&pid=1-s2.0-S0163445324001932-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142114318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Procalcitonin for safe reduction of unnecessary blood cultures in the emergency department: Development and validation of a prediction model 前降钙素用于安全减少急诊科不必要的血培养:预测模型的开发与验证。
IF 14.3 1区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106251

Objectives

Blood cultures (BCs) are commonly ordered in emergency departments (EDs), while a minority yields a relevant pathogen. Diagnostic stewardship is needed to safely reduce unnecessary BCs. We aimed to develop and validate a bacteremia prediction model for ED patients, with specific focus on the benefit of incorporating procalcitonin.

Methods

We included adult patients with suspected bacteremia from a Dutch ED for a one-year period. We defined 23 candidate predictors for a “full model”, of which nine were used for an automatable "basic model”. Variations of both models with C-reactive protein and procalcitonin were constructed using LASSO regression, with bootstrapping for internal validation. External validation was done in an independent cohort of patients with confirmed infection from 71 Spanish EDs. We assessed discriminative performance using the C-statistic and calibration with calibration curves. Clinical usefulness was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity, saved BCs, and Net Benefit.

Results

Among 2111 patients in the derivation cohort (mean age 63 years, 46% male), 273 (13%) had bacteremia, versus 896 (20%) in the external cohort (n = 4436). Adding procalcitonin substantially improved performance for all models. The basic model with procalcitonin showed most promise, with a C-statistic of 0.87 (0.86–0.88) upon external validation. At a 5% risk threshold, it showed a sensitivity of 99% and could have saved 29% of BCs while only missing 10 out of 896 (1.1%) bacteremia patients.

Conclusions

Procalcitonin-based bacteremia prediction models can safely reduce unnecessary BCs at the ED. Further validation is needed across a broader range of healthcare settings.

目的:急诊科(ED)通常会要求进行血液培养(BC),但只有少数培养出相关病原体。为了安全地减少不必要的血液培养,需要进行诊断管理。我们的目标是开发并验证急诊科患者菌血症预测模型,特别关注纳入降钙素原的益处:方法:我们纳入了荷兰一家急诊室一年内疑似菌血症的成年患者。我们为 "完整模型 "定义了 23 个候选预测因子,其中 9 个用于自动 "基本模型"。我们使用 LASSO 回归法构建了这两个模型与 C 反应蛋白和降钙素原的变异模型,并使用引导法进行了内部验证。外部验证是在来自 71 个西班牙急诊室的确诊感染患者的独立队列中进行的。我们使用 C 统计量和校准曲线来评估判别性能。临床实用性通过灵敏度、特异性、节省的 BCs 和净效益进行评估:在衍生队列的 2111 名患者(平均年龄 63 岁,46% 为男性)中,273 人(13%)患有菌血症,而外部队列(n = 4436)中有 896 人(20%)患有菌血症。加入降钙素后,所有模型的性能都有大幅提高。含有丙种球蛋白的基本模型最有希望,外部验证后的 C 统计量为 0.87(0.86-0.88)。在5%的风险阈值下,该模型的灵敏度为99%,可挽救29%的BC,而在896名菌血症患者中仅遗漏了10名(1.1%):结论:基于降钙素原的菌血症预测模型可以安全地减少急诊室不必要的菌血症患者。需要在更广泛的医疗环境中进一步验证。
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引用次数: 0
Risk of unintended consequences from lower antibiotic prescribing for respiratory tract infections in primary care 基层医疗机构降低呼吸道感染抗生素处方的意外后果风险。
IF 14.3 1区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106255

Objectives

About 60% of antibiotic prescribing in primary care is for respiratory tract infections (RTIs), some of which is likely unnecessary. There is limited evidence on the association between reduced antibiotic prescribing and adverse events. We aimed to identify associations between practice-level prescribing rates for RTIs in general practice, and patient-level adverse outcomes.

Methods

We included 1471 English General Practitioner (GP) practices, linked to hospital admissions in England, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink for 2005 to 2019. Outcomes were hospitalisations, RTI-related re-consultations and additional antibiotic prescriptions, adjusted for practice level case-mix prescribing.

Results

Prescribing rates for practices falling within the lowest and highest prescribing quintiles were 52 and 139 prescriptions per 1000 RTI-related consultations. Patients from practices in the lowest prescribing quintile did not have significantly higher risk of hospitalisation, adjusted odds ratio 0·99 (95% CI 0·96 to 1·02). Re-consultations within 30 days were significantly higher for the lowest prescribing practices, adjusted odds ratio 1·209 (1·206 to 1·212). Additional antibiotic prescriptions and subsequent prescriptions upon re-consultation were significantly lower for the lowest prescribing practices, adjusted odds ratio 0·317 (0·314 to 0·321) and 0·706 (0·699 to 0·712), respectively.

Conclusions

Our results contribute to evidence on the safety of reduced antibiotic prescribing for RTIs in primary care. Results suggest that for the majority of practices, further reductions in RTI-related antibiotic prescribing should be possible without an increase in hospitalisation for pneumonia.

目的:初级保健中约 60% 的抗生素处方用于治疗呼吸道感染 (RTI),其中一些可能是不必要的。有关减少抗生素处方与不良事件之间关系的证据有限。我们的目的是确定全科医疗实践中 RTI 病例处方率与患者不良后果之间的关系:我们从 2005 年至 2019 年的临床实践研究数据链中纳入了 1471 个英国全科医生(GP)诊所,这些诊所与英国的入院情况相关联。结果是住院率、RTI相关复诊率和额外抗生素处方,并根据诊所层面的病例组合处方进行了调整:结果:处方量最低和最高五分位数诊所的处方率分别为每1000例RTI相关就诊中开出52和139个处方。处方量最低五分位数诊所的患者住院风险并没有明显增加,调整后的几率比为 0-99 (95% CI 0-96 to 1-02)。开具处方最少的医疗机构的患者在 30 天内再次就诊的风险明显更高,调整后的几率比为 1-209 (1-206 至 1-212)。开具抗生素处方和再次就诊时开具抗生素处方的比例最低者明显较低,调整后的几率比分别为 0-317(0-314 至 0-321)和 0-706(0-699 至 0-712):我们的研究结果为基层医疗机构减少 RTI 抗生素处方的安全性提供了证据。结果表明,对于大多数医疗机构而言,在不增加肺炎住院率的情况下,进一步减少与 RTI 相关的抗生素处方是可能的。
{"title":"Risk of unintended consequences from lower antibiotic prescribing for respiratory tract infections in primary care","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106255","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106255","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><p>About 60% of antibiotic prescribing in primary care is for respiratory tract infections (RTIs), some of which is likely unnecessary. There is limited evidence on the association between reduced antibiotic prescribing and adverse events. We aimed to identify associations between practice-level prescribing rates for RTIs in general practice, and patient-level adverse outcomes.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We included 1471 English General Practitioner (GP) practices, linked to hospital admissions in England, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink for 2005 to 2019. Outcomes were hospitalisations, RTI-related re-consultations and additional antibiotic prescriptions, adjusted for practice level case-mix prescribing.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>Prescribing rates for practices falling within the lowest and highest prescribing quintiles were 52 and 139 prescriptions per 1000 RTI-related consultations. Patients from practices in the lowest prescribing quintile did not have significantly higher risk of hospitalisation, adjusted odds ratio 0·99 (95% CI 0·96 to 1·02). Re-consultations within 30 days were significantly higher for the lowest prescribing practices, adjusted odds ratio 1·209 (1·206 to 1·212). Additional antibiotic prescriptions and subsequent prescriptions upon re-consultation were significantly lower for the lowest prescribing practices, adjusted odds ratio 0·317 (0·314 to 0·321) and 0·706 (0·699 to 0·712), respectively.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Our results contribute to evidence on the safety of reduced antibiotic prescribing for RTIs in primary care. Results suggest that for the majority of practices, further reductions in RTI-related antibiotic prescribing should be possible without an increase in hospitalisation for pneumonia.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50180,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":14.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163445324001890/pdfft?md5=6dc6ef2c1dd3c0a0c02e529e92fa08a5&pid=1-s2.0-S0163445324001890-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142082431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pre-packaged cold-chain ready-to-eat food as a source of sporadic listeriosis in Beijing, China 预包装冷链即食食品是中国北京零星李斯特菌病的病源。
IF 14.3 1区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106254

Objectives

Using a sporadic case of listeriosis suspected to have been caused by consuming a pre-packaged cold-chain ready-to-eat (RTE) food in Beijing, China in 2021 as an exemplar, this study demonstrated the importance of thoroughly investigating the source of listeriosis up to the production point for mitigating infection risk during routine monitoring of Listeria in food facilities and national surveillance program using whole-genome sequencing (WGS).

Methods

Epidemiological, laboratory, traceback, and plant investigations were used to identify the source of infection.

Results

WGS showed the isolate from the patient was genetically indistinguishable from that of the implicated food. During a plant investigation, L. monocytogenes was detected in 26% (9/35) of the environmental samples and one of two raw material samples, confirming the source.

Conclusion

To our knowledge, this is the first investigation in China linking a case of L. monocytogenes infection to a suspected food and its production environment. This report highlights the risk of L. monocytogenes contamination of RTE food and demonstrates the role of food safety risk monitoring in identifying potential sources of infection. Reinforcing control programs in RTE processing plants, intensified surveillance of microorganisms in food products and targeted health education is required to mitigate the infection risk.

目标:本研究以2021年中国北京发生的一起疑似因食用预包装冷链即食食品(RTE)而导致的李斯特菌病零星病例为例,说明了在对食品设施中的李斯特菌进行常规监测和利用全基因组测序(WGS)开展国家监测计划期间,彻底调查李斯特菌病的生产源头以降低感染风险的重要性:方法:通过流行病学、实验室、溯源和工厂调查来确定感染源:结果:全基因组测序结果表明,患者体内的分离株与涉事食品中的分离株在基因上没有区别。在工厂调查中,26%(9/35)的环境样本和两个原材料样本中的一个都检测到了单核细胞增生性酵母菌,从而确认了感染源:据我们所知,这是中国首次将单核细胞增生奈氏菌感染病例与可疑食品及其生产环境联系起来进行调查。本报告强调了单核细胞增生奈氏菌污染即食食品的风险,并证明了食品安全风险监测在确定潜在感染源方面的作用。为降低感染风险,需要加强即食食品加工厂的控制计划、强化食品中微生物的监测以及有针对性的健康教育。
{"title":"Pre-packaged cold-chain ready-to-eat food as a source of sporadic listeriosis in Beijing, China","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106254","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106254","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><p>Using a sporadic case of listeriosis suspected to have been caused by consuming a pre-packaged cold-chain ready-to-eat (RTE) food in Beijing, China in 2021 as an exemplar, this study demonstrated the importance of thoroughly investigating the source of listeriosis up to the production point for mitigating infection risk during routine monitoring of <em>Listeria</em> in food facilities and national surveillance program using whole-genome sequencing (WGS).</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Epidemiological, laboratory, traceback, and plant investigations were used to identify the source of infection.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>WGS showed the isolate from the patient was genetically indistinguishable from that of the implicated food. During a plant investigation, <em>L. monocytogenes</em> was detected in 26% (9/35) of the environmental samples and one of two raw material samples, confirming the source.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>To our knowledge, this is the first investigation in China linking a case of <em>L. monocytogenes</em> infection to a suspected food and its production environment. This report highlights the risk of <em>L. monocytogenes</em> contamination of RTE food and demonstrates the role of food safety risk monitoring in identifying potential sources of infection. Reinforcing control programs in RTE processing plants, intensified surveillance of microorganisms in food products and targeted health education is required to mitigate the infection risk.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50180,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":14.3,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163445324001889/pdfft?md5=1bf63864efcbaf923016171073fd0cfc&pid=1-s2.0-S0163445324001889-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142057121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Antibodies to PfEMP1 and variant surface antigens: Protection after controlled human malaria infection in semi-immune Kenyan adults PfEMP1和变体表面抗原抗体:半免疫肯尼亚成年人受控人类疟疾感染后的保护。
IF 14.3 1区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106252

Objectives

Acquisition of antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum variant surface antigens (VSA) expressed on infected red blood cells (iRBCs) is associated with naturally acquired immunity to malaria. We have previously shown that antibodies to VSA on iRBCs are associated with protection against parasite growth in the context of controlled human malaria infection (CHMI). This study explored whether antibodies to recombinant antigens derived from PfEMP1 domains were independently associated with protection during CHMI in semi-immune Kenyan adults.

Methods

We used a multiplex bead assay to measure levels of IgG antibody against a panel of 27 recombinant PfEMP1 antigens derived from the PfEMP1 repertoire of the 3D7 parasite clone. We measured IgG levels in plasma samples collected from the CHMI participants before inoculation with Sanaria® PfSPZ Challenge, on the day of diagnosis, and 35 days post-inoculation. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between the levels of antibodies to the antigens and CHMI outcome. We also adjusted for previous data including antibodies to VSA on iRBCs, and we assessed the kinetics of antibody acquisition to the different PfEMP1 recombinant antigens over time.

Results

All study participants had detectable antibodies to multiple PfEMP1 proteins before inoculation. All PfEMP1 antigens were associated with protection against parasite growth to the threshold criteria for treatment in CHMI, albeit with substantial collinearity. However, individual PfEMP1 antigens were not independently associated with protection following adjustment for breadth of reactivity to VSA on iRBCs and schizont extract. In addition, antibodies to PfEMP1 antigens derived from group B PfEMP1 were induced and sustained in the participants who could not control parasite growth.

Conclusion

This study shows that the breadth of antibody response to VSA on iRBCs, and not to specific PfEMP1 antigens, is predictive of protection against malaria in CHMI.

目的:获得表达在受感染红细胞(iRBCs)上的恶性疟原虫变异表面抗原(VSA)抗体与自然获得的疟疾免疫力有关。我们之前已经证明,在控制人类疟疾感染(CHMI)的情况下,iRBC 上的 VSA 抗体与保护寄生虫不生长有关。本研究探讨了源自 PfEMP1 结构域的重组抗原抗体是否与半免疫肯尼亚成年人在 CHMI 期间的保护作用独立相关:方法: 我们使用多重串珠检测法来测量针对27种重组PfEMP1抗原的IgG抗体水平,这些抗原来自3D7寄生虫克隆的PfEMP1复合物。我们测量了 CHMI 参与者在接种 Sanaria® PfSPZ Challenge 之前、诊断当天和接种后 35 天采集的血浆样本中的 IgG 水平。我们使用单变量和多变量 Cox 回归分析来评估抗原抗体水平与 CHMI 结果之间的关系。我们还调整了以前的数据,包括 iRBC 上的 VSA 抗体,并评估了不同 PfEMP1 重组抗原抗体随时间变化的动力学:结果:所有研究参与者在接种前都检测到了多种PfEMP1蛋白抗体。尽管存在很大的共线性,但所有 PfEMP1 抗原都与保护寄生虫不生长到 CHMI 治疗阈值标准有关。然而,在对 iRBCs 和裂殖提取物上的 VSA 反应广度进行调整后,单个 PfEMP1 抗原与保护作用并无独立关联。此外,在无法控制寄生虫生长的参与者中,来自B组PfEMP1抗原的PfEMP1抗体被诱导并持续存在:本研究表明,对 iRBCs 上的 VSA(而非特定的 PfEMP1 抗原)抗体反应的广度可预测 CHMI 的疟疾防护能力。
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引用次数: 0
Global temporal trends and projections of acute hepatitis E incidence among women of childbearing age: Age-period-cohort analysis 2021 全球育龄妇女急性戊型肝炎发病率的时间趋势和预测:2021 年年龄-时期-队列分析》。
IF 14.3 1区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106250

Background & aims

Acute hepatitis E (AHE) poses a significant threat to global public health, particularly among women of childbearing age (WCBA), who are at heightened risk for severe pregnancy-related complications. This study aimed to delineate the temporal trends and project future incidence of AHE in WCBA, providing insights crucial for targeted prevention and control strategies.

Methods

Data on AHE incidence from the Global Health data 2021. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to analyze trends across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts, and the Bayesian APC model was utilized for forecasting future epidemiological trajectories.

Results

Globally, AHE incidence numbers among WCBA rose from 2,831,075 in 1992 to 3,420,786 in 2021, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declined from 194.66 to 179.54 per 100,000 with a global net drift of −0.28%. However, high SDI regions showed a contrasting trend with a positive net drift of 0.02%. The age effect was consistent across SDI regions and globally, showing a decrease with advancing age, while unfavorable period and cohort effects were exhibited in high-SDI region. At the national level, locations exhibited varying trends of change. The BAPC model predicted a total of 3,759,384 AHE global cases in WCBA by 2030, with an expected mild increase in the ASIR. The outlook for the management and containment of AHE is grim in certain countries, including India.

Conclusions

The study revealed a complex epidemiological landscape of AHE in WCBA, with increasing global incidence numbers juxtaposed against a declining ASIR. The AHE burden by 2030 remain severe among WCBA. Young WCBA and high SDI region merit particular attention. The findings underscore the need for region-specific strategies to curb the projected rise in AHE incidence and align with the 2030 WHO goals.

背景与目的:急性戊型肝炎(AHE)对全球公共卫生构成重大威胁,尤其是在育龄妇女(WCBA)中,她们发生严重妊娠相关并发症的风险更高。本研究旨在描述育龄妇女戊型肝炎的时间趋势并预测其未来的发病率,为制定有针对性的预防和控制策略提供重要依据:方法:AHE发病率数据来自全球健康数据2021。应用年龄-时期-队列(APC)模型分析不同年龄组、时期和出生队列的趋势,并利用贝叶斯APC模型预测未来的流行病学轨迹:在全球范围内,WCBA 的 AHE 发病率从 1992 年的 2,831,075 人上升到 2021 年的 3,420,786 人,而年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)则从每 10 万人 194.66 例下降到 179.54 例,全球净漂移率为-0.28%。然而,高 SDI 地区呈现出相反的趋势,净漂移率为正 0.02%。各 SDI 地区和全球的年龄效应是一致的,随着年龄的增长而下降,而高 SDI 地区则表现出不利的时期和队列效应。在全国范围内,各地的变化趋势各不相同。根据《巴厘岛行动计划》模型预测,到 2030 年,世界城市和边境地区将出现 3,759,384 例甲型肝炎全球病例,预计 ASIR 将轻微上升。在包括印度在内的一些国家,管理和遏制 AHE 的前景十分严峻:这项研究揭示了 AHE 在西非和中亚地区复杂的流行病学状况,全球发病人数不断增加,而 ASIR 却不断下降。到 2030 年,世界中西部非洲裔美国人的甲型肝炎负担仍然很重。值得特别关注的是年轻的西非和中亚国家以及高 SDI 地区。研究结果突出表明,有必要制定针对具体地区的战略,以遏制预期的禽流感发病率上升,并与 2030 年世卫组织的目标保持一致。
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引用次数: 0
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