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Adaptive Navigation Strategy for Low-Cost IMU-Assisted Vehicles in GNSS-Denied Traffic Environment 无gnss交通环境下低成本imu辅助车辆自适应导航策略
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1155/atr/2762711
Bingming Tong, Wei Chen, Luyao Du

In the context of increasingly complex and diverse traffic environments, where intelligent and connected vehicles (ICVs) coexist with conventional human-driven vehicles, maintaining reliable navigation under global navigation satellite system (GNSS) outages is crucial for supporting adaptive driving strategies and ensuring operational safety. Low-cost inertial measurement units (IMUs) offer promising solutions due to their low computational load and high self-sufficiency, yet error accumulation remains a persistent challenge, particularly in real-world mixed traffic scenarios. This study introduces a dilated convolutional neural network (DCN)–driven framework to directly estimate vehicle forward velocity and IMU error parameters from raw IMU measurements, addressing the reliance on hardware-based odometry by extending nonholonomic constraints (NHC) into three-dimensional velocity constraints. By dynamically optimizing IMU error parameters through integration with an error model, the proposed method mitigates the adverse effects of inherent noise in low-cost IMUs, enabling robust navigation in GNSS-denied environments. Validation using a GNSS/INS dataset demonstrates that the approach accurately estimates vehicle position while significantly suppressing error accumulation, which is pivotal for maintaining reliable navigation in heterogeneous traffic flows where autonomous and human-driven vehicles coexist. This contributes to the development of robust vehicle autonomy and enhanced safety in mixed-traffic ecosystems, enabling more adaptive and resilient driving strategies.

在日益复杂和多样化的交通环境下,智能网联车辆(icv)与传统的人类驾驶车辆共存,在全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)中断的情况下保持可靠的导航对于支持自适应驾驶策略和确保运行安全至关重要。低成本惯性测量单元(imu)由于其低计算负荷和高度自给自足,提供了很有前途的解决方案,但误差积累仍然是一个持续的挑战,特别是在现实世界的混合交通场景中。该研究引入了一个扩展卷积神经网络(DCN)驱动的框架,通过原始IMU测量直接估计车辆的前进速度和IMU误差参数,通过将非完整约束(NHC)扩展到三维速度约束,解决了对基于硬件的里程计的依赖。该方法通过集成误差模型动态优化IMU误差参数,减轻了低成本IMU固有噪声的不利影响,实现了gnss拒绝环境下的鲁棒导航。使用GNSS/INS数据集的验证表明,该方法可以准确地估计车辆位置,同时显著抑制误差积累,这对于在自动驾驶和人类驾驶车辆共存的异构交通流中保持可靠的导航至关重要。这有助于在混合交通生态系统中开发强大的车辆自动驾驶和增强安全性,从而实现更具适应性和弹性的驾驶策略。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis and Prediction of Traffic Accidents Based on Interpretable Spatial Machine Learning: A Case Study in California 基于可解释空间机器学习的交通事故分析与预测:以加州为例
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1155/atr/3184284
Xu Kang, Dingxin Wu, Wenyi Sha, Kangru Song, Shuqi Wang

Traffic accidents are one of the leading causes of death and disability, as well as a significant source of economic losses for society. However, the nonlinear and heterogeneous relationships between environmental factors and traffic accidents are complex and difficult to comprehend. This study constructs an explainable spatial machine learning framework using a geographically weighted support vector machine (GW-SVM) model to address issues of nonlinearity, spatial heterogeneity, and interpretability. Based on a large-scale traffic accident dataset and multisource big data, this study provides both global and local explanations for the nonlinear relationships in California, USA. The study finds that (1) humidity plays a more important role in the relationship between environmental factors and traffic accident severity; (2) all environmental variables, including both natural and socioeconomic variables, exhibit nonlinear and threshold effects on traffic accidents; and (3) compared to the existing models, the GW-SVM model performs better in predicting the severity of traffic accidents on urban roads. The results of this study are significant for reducing traffic accident risks.

交通事故是造成死亡和残疾的主要原因之一,也是造成社会经济损失的一个重要来源。然而,环境因素与交通事故之间的非线性、异构关系是复杂而难以理解的。本研究使用地理加权支持向量机(GW-SVM)模型构建了一个可解释的空间机器学习框架,以解决非线性、空间异质性和可解释性问题。本研究基于大规模交通事故数据集和多源大数据,对美国加利福尼亚州的非线性关系提供了全局和局部的解释。研究发现:(1)湿度在环境因素与交通事故严重程度的关系中起着更重要的作用;(2)所有环境变量(包括自然变量和社会经济变量)对交通事故均表现出非线性和阈值效应;(3)与已有模型相比,GW-SVM模型对城市道路交通事故严重程度的预测效果更好。本研究结果对降低交通事故风险具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Research on Graded Lane Changing in Undersea Tunnel Exit Diversion Zones: Application of Set Pair Analysis and TOPSIS Method for Evaluation 海底隧道出口导流区梯度变道研究:集对分析和TOPSIS评价方法的应用
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1155/atr/7422954
Xuanming Guo, Fuquan Pan, Xiaojun Fan, Shuai Shao, Lixia Zhang, Siliang Luan

Owing to undersea-tunnel constraints concentrating off-ramp maneuvers in confined zones, this study optimizes graded lane-changing strategies to mitigate collision risks. Using the Jiaozhou-Bay Undersea Tunnel case, we propose an innovative exit diversion area graded lane-changing strategy comprising Transition Section I, Transition Section II, gradient section, and auxiliary lane. Six schemes were simulated via UC-WinRoad, with driver physiological stress quantified through Tobii eye-tracking as a novel application of pupil dynamics. Four indicators—lane-change position, lane-change rate, pupil diameter, and speed change—were weighted by the integrated analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method (AHP–EWM) methodology and evaluated via the set pair analysis with the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (SPA-TOPSIS) theory model. Optimal Scheme E (290-m transition I, 210-m transition II, 120-m gradient, and 140-m auxiliary lane) achieved γ = 0.968, significantly reducing pupil fluctuation by 32% compared with the shortest design (Scheme A) while ensuring smoothest speed control. This demonstrates effective conflict distribution in high-risk undersea environments, providing universally applicable design benchmarks for tunnel safety enhancement.

由于海底隧道限制集中在受限区域的出口匝道机动,本研究优化了分级变道策略,以降低碰撞风险。以胶州湾海底隧道为例,提出了一种由过渡段I、过渡段II、梯度段和辅助车道组成的出口导流区分级变道策略。通过UC-WinRoad模拟了六种方案,并通过Tobii眼动追踪作为瞳孔动力学的一种新应用来量化驾驶员的生理应激。采用层次分析法和熵权法(AHP-EWM)对变道位置、变道率、瞳孔直径和速度变化4个指标进行加权,并采用基于理想解相似性理论模型的排序偏好技术(SPA-TOPSIS)进行集对分析。最优方案E (290 m过渡段I, 210 m过渡段II, 120 m坡度,140 m辅助车道)达到γ = 0.968,与最短设计(方案A)相比,瞳孔波动显著减少32%,同时保证了平稳的速度控制。这证明了海底高风险环境下的有效冲突分配,为提高隧道安全性提供了普遍适用的设计基准。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Traffic Congestion Factors in Typical Sections of Expressways Using Structural Equation Model 基于结构方程模型的高速公路典型路段交通拥堵因素分析
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1155/atr/5983189
Yang Li, Kaicheng Xu, Ting Qiao, Xinyu Yang, Xiaohua Zhao, Xiaoping Zhang

Urban expressways serve as the main arteries of urban transportation. Congestion and traffic disruptions on expressways can easily lead to the paralysis of the entire regional transportation system. Accurately understanding the patterns of congestion formation and influencing factors on expressways is beneficial for improving traffic efficiency and reducing travel costs. This study takes typical sections of expressway diverging and exit sections as examples, introducing traffic data provided by navigation systems to explore the potential influencing factors and formation processes of urban expressway traffic congestion. This study explores the effects of operating conditions, control facilities, road properties, weather, and other factors on the smoothness of exit sections based on navigation and field survey data. The traffic congestion index is used as an indicator of congestion degree to evaluate the smoothness of typical area of urban expressways exit sections and the overall safety of urban roads. A structural equation model is used to construct a traffic congestion impact model. The results show that traffic facilities (β = 0.462, p < 0.001), road conditions (β = 0.177, p < 0.001), road location (β = 0.129, p < 0.001), spatiotemporal characteristics (time of day: β = 0.295, p < 0.001; day of week: β = −0.105, p < 0.001), environment (β = 0.021, p < 0.001), and driving behavior (β = 0.326, p < 0.001) have a significant impact on traffic congestion. And driving behavior can be used as an intermediate variable to affect the relationship between transportation facilities, road conditions, road location, spatiotemporal characteristics, environment, and traffic congestion. The research contributes to a precise understanding of the formation patterns and influencing factors of urban expressway traffic congestion, laying the groundwork for the adoption of targeted traffic management measures to improve traffic flow efficiency and reduce accident occurrences.

城市高速公路是城市交通的大动脉。高速公路上的拥堵和交通中断很容易导致整个区域交通系统的瘫痪。准确认识高速公路拥堵形成规律及其影响因素,有利于提高交通效率,降低出行成本。本研究以高速公路分流段和出口段典型路段为例,引入导航系统提供的交通数据,探讨城市高速公路交通拥堵的潜在影响因素和形成过程。本研究基于导航和实地调查数据,探讨了运行条件、控制设施、道路性质、天气等因素对出口路段平整度的影响。采用交通拥堵指数作为拥堵程度的指标,评价城市高速公路出口路段典型区域的平稳性和城市道路的整体安全性。采用结构方程模型构建交通拥堵影响模型。结果表明:交通设施(β = 0.462, p < 0.001)、道路条件(β = 0.177, p < 0.001)、道路位置(β = 0.129, p < 0.001)、时空特征(时间:β = 0.295, p < 0.001)、环境(β = 0.021, p < 0.001)、驾驶行为(β = 0.326, p < 0.001)对交通拥堵有显著影响。驾驶行为可以作为影响交通设施、道路条件、道路位置、时空特征、环境与交通拥堵之间关系的中间变量。该研究有助于准确认识城市高速公路交通拥堵的形成模式和影响因素,为采取有针对性的交通管理措施,提高交通流效率,减少事故发生奠定基础。
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引用次数: 0
Flexible Train Composition Mode–Based Rolling Stock Circulation Planning Problem for Regional Rapid Rail Transit 基于柔性列车组成模型的区域快速轨道交通车辆循环规划问题
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1155/atr/2721207
Guoxuan Tai, Anzheng Lai, Guangzu Li, Yiwei Wang, Wei Guo, Youneng Huang

Regional rapid rail transit is an emerging rail transit system in China in recent years, with the same level of service frequency and longer station spacing as metro. The traditional fixed train composition mode has weak adaptability to its unbalanced transport demand in time and space, leading to high rolling stock traveling kilometers and operation costs. As a novel operation strategy, the flexible train composition mode can make up for this shortcoming, but the matched rolling stock circulation planning is a complex optimization problem. This paper proposes an operation mechanism of the rolling stock circulation plan under flexible train composition mode with multiple coupling/decoupling operation sites for regional rapid rail transit, where trains can change compositions at both terminal and intermediate stations. A mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model is constructed for rolling stock circulation planning based on the proposed mechanism. The optimization objective is to minimize the total operation costs of train services, depot entry/exit processes, and coupling/decoupling activities at terminal and intermediate stations. The model is then reformulated to an equivalent mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model, which can be solved by the CPLEX solver. A numerical experiment based on the real-world data from a regional rapid rail transit line in China is designed to verify the effectiveness of the model and solution approaches. The results show that the obtained rolling stock circulation plan effectively reduces the rolling stock traveling kilometers and operation costs with the pregiven timetable. The methods in this paper provide dispatchers with more options to better match the transport demand of regional rapid rail transit.

区域快速轨道交通是中国近年来兴起的一种轨道交通系统,其服务频次水平与地铁相当,站点间距更大。传统的固定列车组成模式对其时空不平衡的运输需求适应性弱,导致车辆行驶公里数高,运营成本高。灵活的列车编组方式作为一种新颖的运营策略可以弥补这一不足,但匹配的车辆循环规划是一个复杂的优化问题。提出了区域快速轨道交通多耦合/解耦运行点下灵活列车组成模式下列车在终点站和中间站均可改变组成的车辆循环计划运行机制。在此基础上,建立了车辆循环规划的混合整数非线性规划(MINLP)模型。优化的目标是最小化列车服务、车场进出流程以及终点站和中间站的耦合/解耦活动的总运营成本。然后将该模型转化为等效混合整数线性规划(MILP)模型,该模型可由CPLEX求解器求解。基于中国区域快速轨道交通线的实际数据,设计了一个数值实验来验证模型和求解方法的有效性。结果表明,所得到的铁路车辆流通方案在给定的时间表下有效地减少了铁路车辆的行驶公里数和运营成本。本文的方法为调度员提供了更多的选择,以更好地匹配区域快速轨道交通的运输需求。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic Multiobjective Optimization of Lane-Changing Trajectories Based on Reinforcement Learning 基于强化学习的变道轨迹动态多目标优化
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1155/atr/5571585
Mengzhu Yang, Jianjun Wang, Jingtao Li

To enhance the rationality of lane-changing decisions and the adaptability of trajectory planning, this study incorporates short-term driving styles to construct a multiobjective optimized lane-changing trajectory planning model based on naturalistic driving data. First, lane-changing behavior rules were defined to extract lane-changing and lane-keeping data. Essential factors influencing lane-changing behavior were identified using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model. Based on the essential factors, drivers were classified into three categories (conservative, moderate, and aggressive) using Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm, which revealed the behavioral difference during lane-changing. Subsequently, an attention-enhanced long short-term memory (LSTM) network was employed to predict surrounding vehicle trajectories, generating dynamically updated environmental parameters. Further considering comfort and safety benefits during lane-changing, a multiobjective trajectory planning model was developed. Reinforcement learning algorithms iteratively optimized the trajectories to derive the optimal trajectory. Finally, the behavioral characteristics of planned trajectories for the three categories of drivers and the deviations between planned and actual trajectories were compared. Results indicate that planned trajectories exhibit shorter lane-changing length and higher efficiency compared with actual trajectories. Planned trajectory can smooth microlevel behavior and improve safety and comfort during lane-changing. For different types of drivers, conservative drivers show the longest lane-changing length but smallest headway space distances, which reflects drivers’ caution during lane-changing. Aggressive drivers mostly focus on speed improvement. The findings can be applied to vehicle trajectory planning in connected environments, which can enhance the lane-changing efficiency while ensuing safety.

为提高变道决策的合理性和轨迹规划的适应性,本研究结合短期驾驶方式,构建了基于自然驾驶数据的多目标优化变道轨迹规划模型。首先,定义变道行为规则,提取变道和保持车道数据;利用极限梯度增强(XGBoost)模型确定了影响变道行为的关键因素。采用基于噪声应用的密度空间聚类(DBSCAN)算法,基于关键因素将驾驶员分为保守型、中等型和激进型3类,揭示了驾驶员在变道过程中的行为差异。随后,采用注意增强长短期记忆(LSTM)网络预测周围车辆轨迹,生成动态更新的环境参数。在此基础上,进一步考虑车辆变道过程中的舒适性和安全性,建立了多目标变道轨迹规划模型。强化学习算法迭代优化轨迹,得到最优轨迹。最后,比较了三类驾驶员计划轨迹的行为特征以及计划轨迹与实际轨迹的偏差。结果表明,与实际变道轨迹相比,规划变道轨迹的变道长度更短,变道效率更高。规划轨迹可以平滑微观行为,提高变道过程的安全性和舒适性。对于不同类型的驾驶员,保守型驾驶员的变道长度最长,车头距最小,反映了驾驶员在变道过程中的谨慎态度。激进的司机主要关注速度的提高。研究结果可应用于互联环境下的车辆轨迹规划,在保证安全的同时提高变道效率。
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引用次数: 0
The In-Depth Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Urban Vitality in China’s HSR Station Area 中国高铁站区城市活力影响因素的深度分析
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1155/atr/8545604
Ting Yang, Dan He, Qimeng Li, Bin Meng, Jing Zhou, Zihang Qin, Jing Chen

High-speed railway (HSR) station area is the key focus of urban construction, and the development of HSR station area has significant regional differences. This study adopts the association rule mining model and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method to explore the relationships among the development level of the station-setting cities, the development level of the HSR station area, and the urban vitality of the HSR station area. It further investigates how each factor influences the urban vitality in the HSR station area. Findings reveal a prominent multicenter clustering pattern in the urban vitality of the HSR station area. The association rule mining analysis reveals a clear and complex link between the urban vitality in the station area and the influencing factors of the development level of the station-setting cities and the development level of the HSR station area. OLS regression analysis results indicate that the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP and the intensity of intracity travel are significantly positively correlated with urban vitality in the HSR station area, directly contributing to the growth of the urban vitality. The study’s innovation mainly lies in utilizing multisource data to analyze the spatial pattern characteristics and influencing mechanism of the urban comprehensive vitality in the HSR station area from multiple perspectives, as well as applying association rule mining to explore the correlations between urban vitality in the HSR station area and its determinants. From the perspective of urban vitality, gaining deeper insight into the overall development status of the HSR station area and identifying the factors that affect the urban vitality of the HSR station area can support efforts to enhance the vitality of the broader urban environment.

高铁站区是城市建设的重点,高铁站区的发展存在显著的区域差异。本研究采用关联规则挖掘模型和普通最小二乘(OLS)回归方法,探讨站址城市发展水平与高铁站区发展水平、高铁站区城市活力之间的关系。并进一步探讨了各因素对高铁站区城市活力的影响。结果表明,高铁站区城市活力具有明显的多中心集聚特征。关联规则挖掘分析揭示了站区城市活力与站区城市发展水平和高铁站区发展水平影响因素之间存在着清晰而复杂的联系。OLS回归分析结果表明,高铁站区第三产业占GDP的比重和城市旅游强度与城市活力显著正相关,直接促进了城市活力的增长。本研究的创新之处主要在于利用多源数据从多角度分析高铁站区城市综合活力的空间格局特征及影响机制,并运用关联规则挖掘方法探究高铁站区城市活力及其影响因素之间的相关性。从城市活力的角度,深入了解高铁站区整体发展状况,找出影响高铁站区城市活力的因素,有助于提升更广泛的城市环境活力。
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引用次数: 0
Rail Freight Transport Market Liberalization After Two Decades of Its Beginning 铁路货运市场自由化经过二十年的起步
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1155/atr/7588392
Igor Domeny

It has been almost 2 decades since the opening of the rail freight market in the EU came into force. The individual Member States have put different liberalization measures into practice, and the situation on the market still varies from country to country. Efforts to create a single European rail market therefore still seem to be unfulfilled, while, at the same time, the call for a shift of freight transport from road to rail in the context of the European Commission’s decarbonization targets is growing stronger. This paper provides a detailed overview of the rail freight market liberalization process and new market entrants in the EU Member States. A trend analysis of the time series was carried out, taking into account the current status of liberalization measures and the development of transport services since 2007. The resulting model uses cluster analysis as the main approach for grouping the countries based on the similarities in the rail freight market, taking into account the performance indicators, the number of licensed railway undertakings in the market and their evolution, and, last but not least, the change in the modal share of rail transport during the period considered.

欧盟铁路货运市场开放至今已近20年。各成员国实行了不同的自由化措施,市场情况也因国而异。因此,建立单一欧洲铁路市场的努力似乎仍未实现,而与此同时,在欧盟委员会脱碳目标的背景下,要求将货运从公路转向铁路的呼声越来越高。本文提供了一个详细的概述铁路货运市场自由化进程和新的市场进入者在欧盟成员国。考虑到自由化措施的现状和自2007年以来运输服务的发展,对时间序列进行了趋势分析。由此产生的模型使用聚类分析作为主要方法,根据铁路货运市场的相似性对国家进行分组,考虑到绩效指标,市场上持牌铁路企业的数量及其演变,最后但并非最不重要的是,在考虑期间铁路运输模式份额的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Service Attribute Preferences of Air–HSR Transfer Process From a Combined Perspective of Resource-Matching, Perceived Risk, and Value Theories 资源匹配、感知风险和价值理论联合视角下的空高铁转轨服务属性偏好
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1155/atr/7498989
Yi-Ao Liu, Yun Jing, Si-Ye Guo

As an indispensable component of the modern high-quality national comprehensive three-dimensional transport network, air and high-speed rail intermodal transportation (Air–HSR) plays a pivotal role in advancing “transportation integration.” The transfer process in Air–HSR represents a critical touchpoint of service experience, and the investigation into passengers’ preferences for transfer service attributes is instrumental in providing civil aviation enterprises with a more personalized foundation for product development. First, six resource-matching attributes of Air–HSR are extracted by introducing the resource-matching theory (RMT) and drawing on the consumer behavior analytical methods. Subsequently, incorporating the perceived risk theory (PRT) and perceived value theory (PVT), a quantitative framework for passengers’ preferences for service attributes of Air–HSR transfer (RPP-F) is proposed from the dual perspectives of perceived risk (PR) and perceived value (PV). Then, an analysis model (PR–PV–SEM) is constructed with PR and PV as mediating latent variables to examine passengers’ preferences for service attributes of Air–HSR transfer, and the preferences are analyzed through the lens of latent variables. Finally, based on measurement data of passengers’ diverse preferences, passengers’ heterogeneous preferences are analyzed and interpreted through the lenses of latent variables and socioeconomic attributes via multisampling approaches, and the internal preference structures of different attribute groups are deeply explored. The model results demonstrate that the PR–PV–SEM with PR and PV as mediating latent variables exhibits excellent model fit with its explanatory power for passengers’ adoption intention reaching 73%. This finding reveals the mediating mechanism between objective services and subjective willingness via PR and PV and provides a novel perspective for subsequent analysis of travel service preferences.

航空高铁联运作为现代高质量国家综合立体交通网络不可或缺的组成部分,在推进“交通一体化”中发挥着举足轻重的作用。空中高铁的换乘过程是服务体验的关键接触点,调查乘客对换乘服务属性的偏好有助于为民航企业的产品开发提供更加个性化的基础。首先,通过引入资源匹配理论并借鉴消费者行为分析方法,提取了航空高铁的6个资源匹配属性;随后,结合感知风险理论(PRT)和感知价值理论(PVT),从感知风险(PR)和感知价值(PV)的双重视角,提出了乘客对空高铁换乘服务属性偏好的定量框架。然后,以PR和PV为中介潜变量,构建PR - PV - sem分析模型,考察乘客对空高铁换乘服务属性的偏好,并通过潜变量的视角对乘客偏好进行分析。最后,基于乘客多样化偏好的测量数据,通过多采样方法,从潜在变量和社会经济属性的角度对乘客异质性偏好进行分析和解释,深入探索不同属性群体的内部偏好结构。模型结果表明,以PR和PV为中介潜变量的PR - PV - sem模型拟合良好,对乘客采纳意愿的解释能力达到73%。这一发现通过PR和PV揭示了客观服务与主观意愿之间的中介机制,为后续的旅游服务偏好分析提供了新的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on Road Fatalities: A Macroscopic Panel Data Analysis 探索气候变化对道路死亡的影响:宏观面板数据分析
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1155/atr/4693354
Qirui Hu, Yajie Zou, Shubo Wu, Siyang Zhang, Yue Zhang, Lingtao Wu

The present road traffic safety situation faces significant challenges. Examining the influences of diverse contributing factors on road traffic crashes is of crucial importance. However, different factors may have different influences as the change of location and time and the neglect of potential heterogeneity while modelling the frequency of traffic crashes may lead to biases in parameter estimation and incorrect inference. To address the unobserved spatiotemporal heterogeneity and accurately explore the correlations between contributing factors and fatal traffic crashes, a fixed effects panel model with structural breaks is applied to identify the influences of crucial factors on fatal traffic crashes from a macroscopic level. A multisource dataset, including fatal crash numbers, socioeconomic factors, laws and regulations and climate factors is collected from the United States spanning 45 years (from 1977 to 2021). The climate change events (i.e., El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomena) are examined for their influences on fatal traffic crashes. The experimental results illustrate that high temperatures and frequent meteorological disasters have increasing impacts on fatal crash numbers. High precipitation shows a decreasing one from a macroscope level because of the lagged effect of precipitation on crashes across days. Particularly, the climate change events (including EP E1 Niño, CP E1 Niño and La Niña) represent an adverse impact on road traffic safety. Additionally, the states with similar meteorological characteristics are categorized as high temperature, high precipitation and frequent meteorological disaster subsets for separate analysis. Under these subsets, rural trip proportion becomes a more pronounced factor that affects fatal road traffic crashes, and helmet laws are more efficient in reducing fatal crash frequency. The research findings reveal an increasingly complex road traffic safety environment in the context of global warming, offering valuable perspectives for enhancing road traffic safety.

当前道路交通安全形势面临重大挑战。研究各种因素对道路交通事故的影响是至关重要的。然而,不同的因素可能会产生不同的影响,如地点和时间的变化,以及在对交通事故频率建模时忽视潜在的异质性,可能导致参数估计偏差和不正确的推断。为了解决不可观测的时空异质性,准确探索交通事故影响因素与致命交通事故之间的相关性,采用结构断裂的固定效应面板模型,从宏观层面识别关键因素对致命交通事故的影响。从美国收集了一个多源数据集,包括45年(1977年至2021年)的致命事故数量、社会经济因素、法律法规和气候因素。研究了气候变化事件(即El Niño-Southern振荡现象)对致命交通事故的影响。实验结果表明,高温和频繁的气象灾害对致命碰撞数量的影响越来越大。高降水在宏观层面上呈现递减趋势,这是由于降水对事故的滞后效应。特别是气候变化事件(包括EP E1 Niño、CP E1 Niño和La Niña)对道路交通安全产生不利影响。另外,将气象特征相似的状态划分为高温、高降水和频繁气象灾害子集,单独分析。在这些子集下,农村出行比例成为影响致命道路交通碰撞的一个更明显的因素,头盔法在降低致命碰撞频率方面更有效。研究结果揭示了全球变暖背景下日益复杂的道路交通安全环境,为加强道路交通安全提供了有价值的视角。
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Journal of Advanced Transportation
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