Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science最新文献

{"title":"Projections of intertidal estuarine seagrass distribution under climate change scenarios using a Bayesian network approach","authors":"Gotzon Mandiola ,&nbsp;Ibon Galparsoro ,&nbsp;Mireia Valle ,&nbsp;Joxe Mikel Garmendia ,&nbsp;Roland Garnier ,&nbsp;Javier Franco ,&nbsp;Ángel Borja ,&nbsp;Guillem Chust ,&nbsp;Sarai Pouso ,&nbsp;Juan Bald ,&nbsp;José A. Fernandes-Salvador","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109093","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109093","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Seagrasses have declined worldwide at accelerated rates mainly due to human pressures. Moreover, climate change (e.g. sea level rise) and consequent effects, increase uncertainty about the future evolution of seagrass spatial distribution and biomass. Among other adaptive measures, habitat conservation and restoration can help to adapt and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change in marine and transitional ecosystems. In the research presented, we assess the potential future spatial distribution of <em>Zostera noltei</em> coverage under climate change scenarios adopting the Oka estuary (Basque Country), as a case study. For that purpose (i) a conceptual model was developed to illustrate <em>Z. noltei</em> system structure accounting for the environmental conditions, human activities, and climate change effects; (ii) the conceptual model was operationalised into a Bayesian network model; (iii) the main environmental variables and human activities that influence the spatial distribution of <em>Z. noltei</em> were identified; and (iv) suitable areas for <em>Z. noltei</em> considering climate change scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) were projected. The resulting model showed a high-performance capacity (89.1% of correctly classified instances, and 0.96 area under the curve). Depth is the main environmental variable conditioning <em>Z. noltei</em> coverage distribution. The future projections under climate change scenarios show that the <em>Z. noltei</em> area is expected to shift landward with sea level rise and that the potential gains of seagrass area will be constrained by anthropogenic barriers. The presented approach and model, demonstrate the capacity of projecting future seagrass distribution under climate change scenarios. The obtained results are a relevant source of information for management, applicable to planning and prioritisation of the most suitable areas for seagrass conservation, and the adoption of restoration actions in estuaries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"313 ","pages":"Article 109093"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The function of the Wadden Sea in the life cycle of small pelagic fish","authors":"Margot A.M. Maathuis ,&nbsp;Florian Berg ,&nbsp;Bram Couperus ,&nbsp;Jan Jaap Poos ,&nbsp;Ingrid Tulp","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most fish species require different habitats to complete their life cycle, with coastal areas often playing a crucial role as nursery areas for juveniles. The Wadden Sea is an important nursery area for juvenile fish in the North Sea ecoregion. Despite extensive research on the nursery function of the Wadden Sea for demersal species, its role in the life cycle of small pelagic fish (SPF) remains largely unknown. This limits our understanding of the Wadden Sea ecosystem, as SPF are the dominant component of the overall fish biomass and serve as important food source for higher trophic levels. We studied the role of the Wadden Sea in the life cycle of Atlantic herring (<em>Clupea harengus</em>), European sprat (<em>Sprattus sprattus</em>), European smelt (<em>Osmerus eperlanus</em>) and European anchovy (<em>Engraulis encrasicolus</em>) through monthly stow net and seasonal trawl surveys. Our study showed that SPF use the Dutch Wadden Sea primarily as juvenile habitat, with herring being the dominant marine juvenile representative. Length frequency distributions and genetic analysis revealed that the juvenile herring originated predominantly from southwestern waters, such as the English Channel. Additionally, the Wadden Sea still provides spawning grounds for herring and anchovy, with no substantial spawning observed for sprat. While smelt can complete nearly its entire life cycle in the Wadden Sea, it depends on connectivity to nearby freshwater for spawning. In summary, the Wadden Sea functions as a nursery for juveniles, and to a lesser extent as spawning grounds for adults. A thorough understanding of these functions is crucial for identifying bottlenecks and implementing effective conservation and management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"313 ","pages":"Article 109043"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring prey-predator relationships through network analysis in Korean marine ecosystems","authors":"Tae-Sik Yu ,&nbsp;Chang Woo Ji ,&nbsp;Jae-Won Park ,&nbsp;Gun Hee Oh ,&nbsp;Thodhal Yoganandham Suman ,&nbsp;Ihn-Sil Kwak","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109087","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109087","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the feeding ecology of marine fish communities is crucial for effective ecosystem management, and conservation. This study presents a comprehensive meta-analysis of the feeding ecology of 80 marine fish species in Korean coastal waters. We identified dominant prey items, dietary diversity and species-specific feeding preferences by reviewing existing literature. Our finding reveals a complex and interconnected marine ecosystem with diverse feeding strategies. Arthoropods emerged as the dominant prey taxa, consumed by 77 out of 80 fish species and constituting 70.9% of the total prey composition. Hierarchical cluster analysis revealed five distinct trophic groups: piscivores, euphausiid feeders, zooplanktivores, decapod consumers, and amphipod consumers. Network analysis highlighted key predator-prey dependencies and the central role of decapoda (hub score: 0.369) and amphipods (hubscore: 0.322) in the food web. Niche breadth analysis revealed varying degree of dietary specializations among species, with 38 species showing relatively varying degree of dietary breadth (Levins' index ≥0.20) and 42 species exhibiting more specialized diets. Niche overlap analysis within trophic group indicated potential competition for resources, particularly among piscivores predators and Amphipod consumers. This study provides a valuable insight into the trophic dynamics of Korean marine ecosystems, contributing to our understanding of marine food web structures and informing future conservation and management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"313 ","pages":"Article 109087"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An ITP observed warm core eddy is produced by fresh water intrusion in the subsurface Beaufort Sea","authors":"Haijin Dai ,&nbsp;Tao Li ,&nbsp;Jinfeng Ding ,&nbsp;Yuwei Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109098","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109098","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A subsurface eddy was detected via in situ observations, which was also reproduced via reanalysis data. The whole process determined on the basis of numerical model simulations is described below. Since the late summer of 2014, the low sea level pressure (SLP) center has been gradually replaced by a high SLP center over the Beaufort Sea in a month. In response to SLP variations, cyclonic surface winds have been gradually replaced by anticyclonic surface winds, inducing Ekman pumping along the southern edge of the Beaufort Sea and downwelling in the interior of the Beaufort Sea. As a result, surface water, which is warmer and fresher, was transported downward into the subsurface in the interior of the Beaufort Sea. With a uniform current velocity, warm and fresh water can intrude into the cold salt water, which produced a horizontal density gradient and front. Front slumped and mesoscale eddies were generated via a baroclinic instability mechanism. However, numerical simulations suggest that continuous fresh water intrusion rather than the front slump determines eddy strength.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"313 ","pages":"Article 109098"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evidence of lower age, fast growth, and shrinking habitat in critically endangered croaker fish Larimichthys crocea","authors":"Chien-Hsiang Lin ,&nbsp;Tai-Yan Lin ,&nbsp;Aafaq Nazir ,&nbsp;Yen-Chun Wang ,&nbsp;Pei-Ling Wang ,&nbsp;Yoshiyuki Iizuka ,&nbsp;Kuang-Ti Li ,&nbsp;Ming-Tsung Chung ,&nbsp;Jen-Chieh Shiao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109095","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109095","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Overexploitation can impact the life history traits of fish significantly altering growth rates and habitat use. The large yellow croaker (<em>Larimichthys crocea</em>) in the Northwest Pacific has been heavily harvested for nearly half a century, pushing it to the brink of extinction. However, traditional methods have failed to capture historical baselines data on its age structure, growth patterns, and habitat use due to changes that occurred before systematic scientific surveys began. This study aimed to reconstruct these baseline data by analyzing otoliths from three distinct geological times representing varying levels of human disturbance: Early Pleistocene (fossil site dated 1.90–1.35 Ma), Middle to Late Holocene (archaeological sites dated 5000–1000 B.P.), and modern periods. Biological age was estimated from otoliths and verified using stable isotope (δ¹⁸O) analysis. Modern wild large yellow croakers are significantly younger (1.1 ± 0.8 years) compared to those from the Holocene (3.2 ± 1.8) and Pleistocene periods (5.3 ± 2.4). Additionally, modern otoliths exhibit a higher growth rate compared to archaeological and fossil otoliths. Many archaeological and fossil otoliths show δ¹⁸O values well below −4‰, indicating that historical populations of large yellow croaker inhabited a broader range of environments, including brackish water conditions not observed in modern populations. These findings highlight how human impact has acted as a selective pressure on fish, leading to significant changes in age, growth patterns, and habitat use.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"313 ","pages":"Article 109095"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying resilient areas for seagrass restoration by integrating suitability modelling and climate forecasting","authors":"Oliver Dalby ,&nbsp;Mary A. Young ,&nbsp;Emma L. Jackson ,&nbsp;Yi Mei Tan ,&nbsp;Rhys A. Coleman ,&nbsp;Kathy Cinque ,&nbsp;Peter Yeates ,&nbsp;Perran Cook ,&nbsp;Peter I. Macreadie ,&nbsp;Daniel Ierodiaconou ,&nbsp;Craig D.H. Sherman","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Seagrass restoration can reverse trajectories of decline and foster the return of lost ecosystem services, however, poor site selection can hinder restoration success. Suitability modelling is increasingly used to identify contemporary restoration areas, but suitability can change due to environmental perturbations, potentially rendering areas unsuitable under different scenarios (E.g. climate change). Thus, there is a need for restoration practitioners to both identify contemporary areas for restoration and shortlist those resilient to environmental change. Here we use Western Port, Victoria, Australia as a case study demonstrating how forecasted suitability models can identify resilient areas for seagrass restoration and avoid areas that may be unsuitable under future forecasts (risky sites). Initially, the random forest algorithm was used to identify contemporary intertidal and subtidal seagrass restoration areas. Once identified, the resilience of these areas was assessed using environmental scenarios representing degradations to local light environments and climate change related variables (temperature, solar radiation, depth, and salinity). Models initially identified 161 km² of areas suitable for seagrass restoration. However, only 71% (115 km²) remained suitable under 2030 climate change projections, and 62% (100 km²) remained suitable under 2090 projections. Both 2030 and 2090 projections predicted reductions in suitability in areas that were still identified as suitable for restoration in the future, suggesting climate change may both reduce the areal extent of areas for restoration and reduce their quality. Approaches used here can be transferred to other restoration programs worldwide and across taxa and demonstrate the benefits of forecasting restoration suitability to avoid risk and increase restoration success.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"313 ","pages":"Article 109096"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term impact of dredging and beach nourishment works on benthic communities","authors":"Adeline Tauran ,&nbsp;Nicolas Lavesque ,&nbsp;Hugues Blanchet ,&nbsp;Vaéa Bujan ,&nbsp;Benoît Gouillieux ,&nbsp;Suzie Humbert ,&nbsp;Bastien Lamarque ,&nbsp;Lise Latry ,&nbsp;Xavier de Montaudouin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109119","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dredging and rainbowing techniques are commonly used to replenish sandy beaches and protect the coast against erosion. Since 2003, such operations have been conducted every other year on Pyla Beach, Arcachon Bay (French Atlantic Coast). The evolution of macrobenthic communities subjected to regular disturbance was analyzed once in springtime at dredging and disposal sites, as well as in a control area, over 21 years. The overall benthic community was dominated by the same few species. The dredged area harbors a benthic community whose characteristics suggest the maintenance of a disturbed status, compared to the control area, whose community follows a trajectory possibly influenced by the general decrease of organic matter in the sediment. Regarding the disposal site, species richness is slowly declining. In both disturbed areas, the community was dominated by species able to recolonize rapidly (polychaetes, peracarid crustaceans), while the control area rather favored bivalves.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"313 ","pages":"Article 109119"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143149742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From a marsh that was once sea: The geological evolution of Europe's largest biological reserve as told by its benthic foraminifera-a review","authors":"María Luz González-Regalado ,&nbsp;Liliana Guerra ,&nbsp;Francisco Ruiz ,&nbsp;Cristina Veiga-Pires ,&nbsp;Manuel Abad ,&nbsp;Tatiana Izquierdo ,&nbsp;Joaquín Rodríguez Vidal ,&nbsp;Luis Miguel Cáceres ,&nbsp;Fernando Muñiz ,&nbsp;María Isabel Carretero ,&nbsp;Josep Tosquella ,&nbsp;Adolfo Francisco Muñoz ,&nbsp;Manuel Pozo ,&nbsp;Juan Manuel Muñoz ,&nbsp;Antonio Toscano ,&nbsp;Paula Gómez ,&nbsp;Verónica Romero ,&nbsp;Gabriel Gómez","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents an updated list of benthic foraminifera found in brackish and marine (paleo-)environments of the Doñana National Park (SW Spain) from the Lower Pliocene to the present-day. This list, based on published records, includes ninety-four species whose autoecology and temporal distribution in surface sections and continuous sediment cores allow us to infer the palaeogeographic evolution of this Biosphere Reserve over the last millions of years. During the Lower Pliocene, this area was occupied by a wide shallow bay with <em>Nonion faba</em> and <em>Ammonia beccarii</em> as the most representative species. During the Upper Pliocene, there was a transition to terrestrial environments, later dominated by fluvial dynamics for much of the Pleistocene and devoid of these aquatic microorganisms. During the Upper Pleistocene and part of the Holocene, the park was flooded during the MIS-1 transgression and a large lagoon was formed and progressively silted up. At this stage, benthic foraminiferal assemblages were dominated by the brackish species <em>Ammonia</em> morphogroup <em>tepida</em> and <em>Haynesina germanica</em>, which were occasionally replaced by marine species (mainly miliolids) during high-energy events. Currently, benthic foraminifera are mainly represented by <em>Ammonia</em> morphogroup <em>tepida</em> in the temporary lagoons and distributary channels, while <em>Ammonia beccarii</em> is dominant in their marginal marine areas. In summary, there is a clear correspondence between the palaeogeographic evolution of the park and its benthic foraminiferal associations, a review of which contributes to increase the knowledge of its remarkable present and past faunal diversity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"313 ","pages":"Article 109104"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143149769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on improving the accuracy of remote sensing-based bathymetry on muddy coasts","authors":"Xuelian Xu ,&nbsp;Qiqi Pan ,&nbsp;Han Wu ,&nbsp;Dong Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhuo Zhang ,&nbsp;Yunjuan Gu ,&nbsp;Zaifeng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109126","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109126","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The hydrodynamic conditions on shallow muddy coasts are complex, with high sediment concentrations and significant variations in underwater terrain. Several challenges, such as interference from spectral information from suspended sediments and low accuracy in model extrapolation, hinder remote sensing techniques for bathymetry inversion in these areas. Muddy coasts in Jiangsu Province, China, are typical throughout the country. Its offshore radial sand ridges (RSRs) are unique geomorphology among sand ridge systems worldwide, with a mean water depth of approximately 25 m. Taking the Jiangsu muddy coasts as the study area, we proposed a novel suspended sediment index named the three-band gradient difference suspended sediment index (TGDSSI) by analyzing the spectral characteristics of waters with high sediment concentration to enhance bathymetric information. Then, it was used as a key input variable for the back-propagation (BP) neural network model and the random forest (RF) model for bathymetry inversion experiments. We compared the performance of these two models and their inversion results on muddy coasts. Moreover, we quantitatively analyzed the contribution of TGDSSI to the accuracy of bathymetry inversion by evaluating the performance of the BP neural network without TGDSSI. Although the RF model had a slightly greater inversion accuracy than the BP neural network model, its bathymetric range was limited by the model training data, which were only up to 12 m and far less than the average water depth of the RSRs. The BP neural network performed well in large-scale extrapolation inversion, with a maximum bathymetric range of more than 30 m. TGDSSI can effectively highlight the modulation relationship between the underwater terrain and suspended sediment distribution, which enhances the underwater terrain features on images. By incorporating TGDSSI modeling, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the BP neural network model was reduced from 1.90 m to 1.67 m. We further compared the inverted water depth data from the BP neural network model with the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) product in 2019 of the global digital bathymetric model (DBM). The R² increased from 0.05 in the GEBCO dataset to 0.74 in our inverted water depth results. The bathymetric accuracy improved by 66.40% in the shallow sea areas. This work showed the potential of providing underwater terrain data via satellite-based remote sensing, which will be helpful for the development, utilization, and spatial planning of muddy coasts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"313 ","pages":"Article 109126"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143150299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal shifts in key mangrove crab species linked to biotic and abiotic factors at a latitudinal range limit","authors":"Chaitanya Katharoyan ,&nbsp;Anusha Rajkaran ,&nbsp;Nasreen Peer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mangroves in South Africa occur at a southern latitudinal limit (33°12′51″ S, 27°34′54″ E) where distribution is influenced by global climate change. Mangroves are experiencing poleward expansion, affecting the distribution of associated macrofauna. Monitoring surveys have been conducted for South African mangrove macrofauna, with research focusing on drivers of ocypodid crabs rather than grapsoid crabs, despite the key role of grapsoids in this ecosystem. Using uni- and multivariate models, we investigated (i) changes in brachyuran community over time (2016 vs 2023), (ii) the potential biotic (food availability, brachyuran diversity and abundance) and abiotic (sediment, water and geographic parameters) factors influencing occurrence and abundance of three co-occurring mangrove crabs (<em>Austruca occidentalis</em>, <em>Neosarmatium africanum</em> and <em>Cristarma eulimene</em>) along the east coast of South Africa, and (iii) the potential distribution of these three species under climate change scenarios. Brachyuran community structure changed significantly over time (2016–2023) at all mangrove sites sampled (df = 1, pseudo-f = 13.95, p &lt; 0.05). Overall, the presence and abundance of all three species were influenced by total brachyuran abundance and diversity, with latitude also influencing the occurrence of these crabs. Specifically, <em>A. occidentalis</em> occurrence was correlated with sediment organic matter and importance values of mangrove tree species to forest structure, while temperature, salinity and sediment moisture influenced their abundance. The presence and abundance of both sesarmids were driven by microphytobenthos and salinity, while temperature influenced abundance. Both climate change scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) projected future shifts in distribution of all three crab species, with warmer temperatures and increased rainfall patterns expanding habitat suitability of sesarmids in a poleward direction while contracting fiddler crab ranges. This study highlights the ongoing and future impacts of climate change in South African mangroves and their associated macrofauna, suggesting a projected poleward expansion in response to climate change. Additionally, this study highlights future distributional shifts of mangrove associated crabs that can likely alter coastal ecosystem dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"313 ","pages":"Article 109116"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143150305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}