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Parameterized Reduced-Order Models for Probabilistic Analysis of Thermal Protection System Based on Proper Orthogonal Decomposition 基于适当正交分解的热保护系统概率分析参数化降序模型
Pub Date : 2024-03-29 DOI: 10.3390/aerospace11040269
Kun Zhang, Jianyao Yao, Wenxiang Zhu, Zhifu Cao, Teng Li, Jianqiang Xin
The thermal protection system (TPS) represents one of the most critical subsystems for vehicle re-entry. However, due to uncertainties in thermal loads, material properties, and manufacturing deviations, the thermal response of the TPS exhibits significant randomness, posing considerable challenges in engineering design and reliability assessment. Given that uncertain aerodynamic heating loads manifest as a stochastic field over time, conventional surrogate models, typically accepting scalar random variables as inputs, face limitations in modeling them. Consequently, this paper introduces an effective characterization approach utilizing proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to represent the uncertainties of aerodynamic heating. The augmented snapshots matrix is used to reduce the dimension of the random field by the decoupling method of independently spatial and temporal bases. The random variables describing material properties and geometric thickness are also employed as inputs for probabilistic analyses. An uncoupled POD Gaussian process regression (UPOD-GPR) model is then established to achieve highly accurate solutions for transient heat conduction. The model takes random heat flux fields as inputs and thermal response fields as outputs. Using a typical multi-layer TPS and thermal structure as two examples, probabilistic analyses are conducted. The mean square relative error of a typical multi-layer TPS is less than 4%. For the thermal structure, the averaged absolute error of the radiation and insulation layer is less than 25 ∘C and 6 ∘C when the maximum reaches 1200 ∘C and 150 ∘C, respectively. This approach can provide accurate and rapid predictions of thermal responses for TPS and thermal structures throughout their entire operating time when furnished with input heat flux fields and structural parameters.
热保护系统(TPS)是飞行器重返大气层最关键的子系统之一。然而,由于热负荷、材料特性和制造偏差等方面的不确定性,TPS 的热响应表现出显著的随机性,给工程设计和可靠性评估带来了相当大的挑战。鉴于不确定的空气动力热负荷随着时间的推移表现为随机场,通常接受标量随机变量作为输入的传统代用模型在对其建模时面临限制。因此,本文介绍了一种有效的表征方法,利用适当的正交分解(POD)来表示空气动力加热的不确定性。利用增强快照矩阵,通过独立空间和时间基础的解耦方法来降低随机场的维度。描述材料属性和几何厚度的随机变量也被用作概率分析的输入。然后建立了一个非耦合 POD 高斯过程回归(UPOD-GPR)模型,以实现瞬态热传导的高精度求解。该模型将随机热通量场作为输入,将热响应场作为输出。以典型的多层 TPS 和热结构为例,进行了概率分析。典型多层 TPS 的均方相对误差小于 4%。对于热结构,当最大温度达到 1200 ℃ 和 150 ℃ 时,辐射层和隔热层的平均绝对误差分别小于 25 ℃ 和 6 ℃。在输入热通量场和结构参数的情况下,这种方法可以准确、快速地预测 TPS 和热结构在整个工作时间内的热响应。
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引用次数: 0
A Preliminary Evaluation of Morphing Horizontal Tail Design for UAVs 无人飞行器变形水平尾翼设计的初步评估
Pub Date : 2024-03-29 DOI: 10.3390/aerospace11040266
Fernando Montano, I. Dimino, Alberto Milazzo
Morphing structures are a relatively new aircraft technology currently being investigated for a variety of applications, from civil to military. Despite the lack of literature maturity and its complexity, morphing wings offer significant aerodynamic benefits over a wide range of flight conditions, enabling reduced aircraft fuel consumption and airframe noise, longer range and higher efficiency. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of morphing horizontal tail design on aircraft performance and flight mechanics. This study is conducted on a 1:5 scale model of a Preceptor N-3 Pup at its trim condition, of which the longitudinal dynamics is implemented in MATLAB. Starting from the original horizontal tail airfoil NACA 0012 with the elevator deflected at the trim value, this is modified by using the X-Foil tool to obtain a smooth morphing airfoil trailing edge shape with the same CLα. By comparing both configurations and their influence on the whole aircraft, the resulting improvements are evaluated in terms of stability in the short-period mode, reduction in the parasitic drag coefficient CD0, and increased endurance at various altitudes.
变形结构是一种相对较新的飞机技术,目前正在研究其从民用到军用的各种应用。尽管缺乏成熟的文献及其复杂性,但变形机翼在各种飞行条件下都具有显著的气动优势,可降低飞机油耗和机身噪音,延长航程并提高效率。本研究旨在探讨变形水平尾翼设计对飞机性能和飞行力学的影响。本研究以 1:5 比例的 "Preceptor "N-3 "Pup "模型为研究对象,该模型的纵向动力学在 MATLAB 中实现。从原始水平尾翼 NACA 0012 开始,将升降舵偏转到修整值,然后使用 X 箔工具对其进行修改,以获得具有相同 CLα 的平滑变形翼面后缘形状。通过比较两种配置及其对整架飞机的影响,从短周期模式的稳定性、寄生阻力系数 CD0 的降低以及不同高度下耐久性的提高等方面评估了由此带来的改进。
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引用次数: 0
A Multi-Fidelity Uncertainty Propagation Model for Multi-Dimensional Correlated Flow Field Responses 多维相关流场响应的多保真度不确定性传播模型
Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.3390/aerospace11040263
Jiangtao Chen, Jiao Zhao, Wei Xiao, Luogeng Lv, Wei Zhao, Xiaojun Wu
Given the randomness inherent in fluid dynamics problems and limitations in human cognition, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling and simulation are afflicted with non-negligible uncertainties, casting doubts on the credibility of CFD. Scientifically and rigorously quantifying the uncertainty of CFD is paramount for assessing its credibility and informing engineering decisions. In order to quantify the uncertainty of multidimensional flow field responses stemming from uncertain model parameters, this paper proposes a method based on Gappy Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) for supplementing high-fidelity flow field data within a framework that leverages POD and surrogate models. This approach enables the generation of corresponding high-fidelity flow fields from low-fidelity ones, significantly reducing the cost of high-fidelity flow field computation in uncertainty propagation modeling. Through an analysis of the impact of uncertainty in the coefficients of the Spalart–Allmaras (SA) turbulence model on the distribution of wall friction coefficients for the NACA0012 airfoil and pressure coefficients for the M6 wing, the proposed multi-fidelity modeling approach is demonstrated to offer significant advancements in both accuracy and efficiency compared to single-fidelity methods, providing a robust and efficient prediction model for large-scale random sampling.
鉴于流体动力学问题固有的随机性和人类认知的局限性,计算流体动力学(CFD)建模和仿真存在不可忽略的不确定性,这使人们对 CFD 的可信度产生怀疑。科学、严格地量化 CFD 的不确定性对于评估其可信度和为工程决策提供信息至关重要。为了量化不确定模型参数引起的多维流场响应的不确定性,本文提出了一种基于 Gappy 适当正交分解(POD)的方法,用于在利用 POD 和代用模型的框架内补充高保真流场数据。这种方法可以从低保真流场生成相应的高保真流场,大大降低了不确定性传播建模中高保真流场计算的成本。通过分析 Spalart-Allmaras(SA)湍流模型系数的不确定性对 NACA0012 翼面壁面摩擦系数和 M6 机翼压力系数分布的影响,证明了与单保真度方法相比,所提出的多保真度建模方法在精度和效率方面都有显著提高,为大规模随机采样提供了稳健高效的预测模型。
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引用次数: 0
Regression Rate and Combustion Efficiency of Composite Hybrid Rocket Grains Based on Modular Fuel Units 基于模块化燃料单元的复合混合火箭晶粒的回归率和燃烧效率
Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.3390/aerospace11040262
Junjie Pan, Xin Lin, Zezhong Wang, Ruoyan Wang, Kun Wu, Jinhu Liang, Xilong Yu
This study investigated combustion characteristics of composite fuel grains designed based on a modular fuel unit strategy. The modular fuel unit comprised a periodical helical structure with nine acrylonitrile–butadiene–styrene helical blades. A paraffin-based fuel was embedded between adjacent blades. Two modifications of the helical structure framework were researched. One mirrored the helical blades, and the other periodically extended the helical blades by perforation. A laboratory-scale hybrid rocket engine was used to investigate combustion characteristics of the fuel grains at an oxygen mass flux of 2.1–6.0 g/(s·cm2). Compared with the composite fuel grain with periodically extended helical blades, the modified composite fuel grains exhibited higher regression rates and a faster rise of regression rates as the oxygen mass flux increased. At an oxygen mass flux of 6.0 g/(s·cm2), the regression rate of the composite fuel grains with perforation and mirrored helical blades increased by 8.0% and 14.1%, respectively. The oxygen-to-fuel distribution of the composite fuel grain with mirrored helical blades was more concentrated, and its combustion efficiency was stable. Flame structure characteristics in the combustion chamber were visualized using a radiation imaging technique. A rapid increase in flame thickness of the composite fuel grains based on the modular unit was observed, which was consistent with their high regression rates. A simplified numerical simulation was carried out to elucidate the mechanism of the modified modular units on performance enhancement of the composite hybrid rocket grains.
本研究调查了基于模块化燃料单元策略设计的复合燃料颗粒的燃烧特性。模块化燃料单元包括一个周期性螺旋结构,其中有九个丙烯腈-丁二烯-苯乙烯螺旋叶片。相邻叶片之间嵌入了石蜡基燃料。研究人员对螺旋结构框架进行了两种修改。一种是镜像螺旋叶片,另一种是通过穿孔定期延长螺旋叶片。使用实验室规模的混合火箭发动机研究了燃料颗粒在氧气质量通量为 2.1-6.0 g/(s-cm2) 时的燃烧特性。与带有周期性延伸螺旋叶片的复合燃料颗粒相比,改进型复合燃料颗粒表现出更高的回归率,并且随着氧质量通量的增加,回归率上升得更快。当氧气质量通量为 6.0 g/(s-cm2) 时,带穿孔和镜像螺旋叶片的复合燃料颗粒的回归率分别提高了 8.0% 和 14.1%。带镜面螺旋叶片的复合燃料颗粒的氧-燃料分布更加集中,燃烧效率稳定。利用辐射成像技术对燃烧室内的火焰结构特征进行了观察。观察到基于模块化单元的复合燃料颗粒的火焰厚度迅速增加,这与其高回归率相一致。通过简化的数值模拟,阐明了改进模块单元对复合混合火箭燃料颗粒性能提升的作用机理。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on the Design and Implementation Technologies of EVA at the China Space Station 中国空间站舱外活动设计与实施技术研究
Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.3390/aerospace11040264
Xuedong Li, Yuan Xie, Yumo Tian, Fengjiang An
Extravehicular activity (EVA) is a key point and a difficult point for manned spaceflight tasks, as well as an inevitable trend in the development of the manned spaceflight industry. Equipment maintenance, load installation, and extravehicular routing inspection via EVA on the track are necessary to guarantee the safety and reliability of the long-term in-orbit operation of the China Space Station. In this paper, a comprehensive analysis was conducted on the features of multiple tasks, diverse working modes, and strong systematic coupling during the EVA of the China Space Station (CSS). On this basis, the design, implementation technologies’ development, and in-orbit performance evaluation during EVA were expounded. In the space station system, an extravehicular reliability verification and evaluation system suitable for the requirement for EVA under the conditions of China’s multi-mission, multi-module combination, and repairable spacecraft was constructed. Finally, the in-orbit EVA implementation of the China Space Station since the launch of the core module to the present was summarized, and the subsequent application of the extravehicular technologies in manned lunar landing projects and optical modules was anticipated.
舱外活动(EVA)是载人航天任务的重点和难点,也是载人航天事业发展的必然趋势。通过轨道舱外活动进行设备维护、载荷安装和舱外路由检查,是保证中国空间站长期在轨运行安全可靠的必要手段。本文针对中国空间站舱外活动任务多、工作方式多样、系统耦合性强的特点进行了综合分析。在此基础上,阐述了 EVA 的设计、实施技术开发和在轨性能评估。在空间站系统中,构建了适合中国多任务、多模块组合、可修复航天器条件下舱外飞行可靠性验证与评估系统。最后,总结了中国空间站自核心舱发射至今的在轨 EVA 实施情况,并对后续舱外技术在载人登月工程和光学舱中的应用进行了展望。
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引用次数: 0
A Python Toolbox for Data-Driven Aerodynamic Modeling Using Sparse Gaussian Processes 使用稀疏高斯过程进行数据驱动空气动力学建模的 Python 工具箱
Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.3390/aerospace11040260
Hugo Valayer, Nathalie Bartoli, Mauricio Castaño-Aguirre, R. Lafage, Thierry Lefebvre, A. F. López-Lopera, Sylvain Mouton
In aerodynamics, characterizing the aerodynamic behavior of aircraft typically requires a large number of observation data points. Real experiments can generate thousands of data points with suitable accuracy, but they are time-consuming and resource-intensive. Consequently, conducting real experiments at new input configurations might be impractical. To address this challenge, data-driven surrogate models have emerged as a cost-effective and time-efficient alternative. They provide simplified mathematical representations that approximate the output of interest. Models based on Gaussian Processes (GPs) have gained popularity in aerodynamics due to their ability to provide accurate predictions and quantify uncertainty while maintaining tractable execution times. To handle large datasets, sparse approximations of GPs have been further investigated to reduce the computational complexity of exact inference. In this paper, we revisit and adapt two classic sparse methods for GPs to address the specific requirements frequently encountered in aerodynamic applications. We compare different strategies for choosing the inducing inputs, which significantly impact the complexity reduction. We formally integrate our implementations into the open-source Python toolbox SMT, enabling the use of sparse methods across the GP regression pipeline. We demonstrate the performance of our Sparse GP (SGP) developments in a comprehensive 1D analytic example as well as in a real wind tunnel application with thousands of training data points.
在空气动力学中,描述飞机的空气动力学行为通常需要大量的观测数据点。实际实验可以生成数千个具有适当精度的数据点,但这些实验既耗时又耗费资源。因此,在新的输入配置下进行真实实验可能不切实际。为了应对这一挑战,数据驱动的代用模型应运而生,成为一种具有成本效益和时间效率的替代方法。这些模型提供了简化的数学表示方法,可近似于相关输出。基于高斯过程(GPs)的模型在空气动力学领域很受欢迎,因为它们能够提供准确的预测并量化不确定性,同时保持可控的执行时间。为了处理大型数据集,人们进一步研究了 GPs 的稀疏近似,以降低精确推理的计算复杂性。在本文中,我们重新审视并调整了 GPs 的两种经典稀疏方法,以满足空气动力学应用中经常遇到的特定要求。我们比较了选择诱导输入的不同策略,这些策略对降低复杂性有显著影响。我们将实现方法正式集成到开源 Python 工具箱 SMT 中,使稀疏方法的使用贯穿 GP 回归管道。我们在一个全面的一维分析示例中,以及在一个具有数千个训练数据点的真实风洞应用中,展示了我们的稀疏 GP (SGP) 开发成果的性能。
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引用次数: 0
A CNN-GRU Hybrid Model for Predicting Airport Departure Taxiing Time 用于预测机场起飞滑行时间的 CNN-GRU 混合模型
Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.3390/aerospace11040261
Ligang Yuan, Jing Liu, Haiyan Chen, Daoming Fang, Wenlu Chen
Scene taxiing time is an important indicator for assessing the operational efficiency of airports as well as green airports, and it is also a fundamental parameter in flight regularity statistics. The accurate prediction of taxiing time can help decision makers to further optimize flight pushback sequences and improve airport operational efficiency while increasing flight punctuality. In this paper, we propose a hybrid deep learning model for departure taxiing time prediction based on the new influence factors of taxiing time. Taking Pudong International Airport as the research object, after analyzing the scene operation mode, we construct the origin–destination pairs (ODPs) with stand groups and runways and then propose two structure-related factors, corridor departure flow and departure flow proportion of ODP, as the new features. Based on the new feature set, we construct a departure taxiing dataset for training the prediction model. Then, a departure taxiing time prediction model based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and gated recurrent units (GRUs) is proposed, which uses a CNN model to extract the high-dimensional features from the taxiing data and then inputs them to a GRU model for taxiing time prediction. Finally, we conduct a series of comparison experiments on the historical taxiing dataset of Pudong Airport. The prediction results show that the proposed hybrid prediction model has the best performances compared with other deep learning models, and the proposed structure-related features have high correlations with departure taxiing time. The prediction results of taxiing time for different ODPs also verify the generalizability of the proposed model.
场面滑行时间是评估机场运行效率和绿色机场的重要指标,也是航班正常率统计的基本参数。准确预测滑行时间可以帮助决策者进一步优化航班推回顺序,提高机场运行效率,同时提高航班正点率。本文基于滑行时间的新影响因素,提出了一种离港滑行时间预测的混合深度学习模型。以浦东国际机场为研究对象,在分析了现场运行模式后,构建了具有站群和跑道的始发站对(ODP),并提出了廊道离港流量和ODP离港流量比例两个结构相关因素作为新特征。基于新特征集,我们构建了一个离港滑行数据集,用于训练预测模型。然后,我们提出了基于卷积神经网络(CNN)和门控递归单元(GRU)的离港滑行时间预测模型,该模型使用 CNN 模型从滑行数据中提取高维特征,然后将其输入 GRU 模型进行滑行时间预测。最后,我们在浦东机场的历史滑行数据集上进行了一系列对比实验。预测结果表明,与其他深度学习模型相比,所提出的混合预测模型具有最佳性能,而且所提出的结构相关特征与离港滑行时间具有很高的相关性。不同ODP的滑行时间预测结果也验证了所提模型的普适性。
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引用次数: 0
Fuzzy Modeling Framework Using Sector Non-Linearity Techniques for Fixed-Wing Aircrafts 使用扇形非线性技术的固定翼飞机模糊建模框架
Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.3390/aerospace11040258
Pablo Brusola, S. García-Nieto, JV Salcedo, Miguel Martinez, Robert H. Bishop
This paper presents a mathematical modeling approach utilizing a fuzzy modeling framework for fixed-wing aircraft systems with the goal of creating a highly desirable mathematical representation for model-based control design applications. The starting point is a mathematical model comprising fifteen non-linear ordinary differential equations representing the dynamic and kinematic behavior applicable to a wide range of fixed-wing aircraft systems. Here, the proposed mathematical modeling framework is applied to the AIRBUS A310 model developed by ONERA. The proposed fuzzy modeling framework takes advantage of sector non-linearity red techniques to recast all the non-linear terms from the original model to a set of combined fuzzy rules. The result of this fuzzification is a more suitable mathematical description from the control system design point of view. Therefore, the combination of this fuzzy model and the wide range of control techniques available in the literature for such kind of models, like parallel and non-parallel distributed compensation control laws using linear matrix inequality optimization, enables the development of control algorithms that guarantee stability conditions for a wide range of operations points, avoiding the classical gain scheduling schemes, where the stability issues can be extremely challenging.
本文介绍了一种利用固定翼飞机系统模糊建模框架的数学建模方法,目的是为基于模型的控制设计应用创建一种非常理想的数学表示方法。数学模型由 15 个非线性常微分方程组成,代表了适用于各种固定翼飞机系统的动态和运动行为。在这里,所提出的数学建模框架被应用于 ONERA 开发的 AIRBUS A310 模型。拟议的模糊建模框架利用部门非线性重构技术,将原始模型中的所有非线性项重构为一组组合模糊规则。从控制系统设计的角度来看,这种模糊化的结果是一种更合适的数学描述。因此,将这种模糊模型与文献中针对此类模型的多种控制技术(如使用线性矩阵不等式优化的并行和非并行分布式补偿控制法)相结合,就能开发出在多种操作点上都能保证稳定性的控制算法,从而避免了传统增益调度方案所面临的极具挑战性的稳定性问题。
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引用次数: 0
Smart Blade Count Selection to Align Modal Propagation Angle with Stator Stagger Angle for Low-Noise Ducted Fan Designs 智能叶片数选择使模态传播角度与定子交错角度一致,以实现低噪声风扇设计
Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.3390/aerospace11040259
Stephen Schade, Robert Jaron, Lukas Klähn, Antoine Moreau
The rotor–stator interaction noise is a major source of fan noise. Especially for low-speed fan stages, the tonal component is typically a dominant noise source. A challenge is to reduce this tonal noise, as it is typically perceived as unpleasant. Therefore, in this paper, we analytically, numerically and experimentally investigate an acoustic effect to lower the tonal noise excitation. Our study on an existing low-speed fan indicates a reduction in tonal interaction noise of more than 9 dB at the source if the excited acoustic modes propagate parallel to the stator leading edge angle. Moreover, a design-to-low-noise approach is demonstrated in order to apply this effect to two new fan stages with fewer stator than rotor blades. The acoustic design of both fans is determined by an appropriate choice of the rotor and stator blade numbers in order to align the modal propagation angle with the stator stagger angle. The blade geometries are obtained from aerodynamic optimization. Both fans provide similar aerodynamic but opposing acoustic radiation characteristics compared to the baseline fan and a significant tonal noise reduction resulting from the impact of the modal propagation angle on noise excitation. To ensure that this effect can also be applied to other low-speed fans, a design rule is derived and validated.
转子-定子相互作用噪声是风扇噪声的主要来源。特别是对于低速风扇级,音调成分通常是主要噪声源。如何降低音调噪声是一个挑战,因为音调噪声通常被认为是令人不愉快的。因此,在本文中,我们通过分析、数值和实验研究了降低音调噪声激励的声学效应。我们对现有低速风扇的研究表明,如果激发的声学模式平行于定子前缘角传播,则音调交互噪声在声源处可降低 9 分贝以上。此外,还展示了一种低噪声设计方法,以便将这种效应应用于两个定子叶片少于转子叶片的新型风扇级。这两个风扇的声学设计由转子和定子叶片数的适当选择决定,以便使模态传播角与定子交错角保持一致。叶片的几何形状是通过空气动力学优化获得的。与基线风扇相比,两种风扇都具有相似的空气动力特性,但声学辐射特性却截然相反,而且由于模态传播角对噪声激励的影响,音调噪声显著降低。为了确保这种效果也能应用于其他低速风扇,我们推导并验证了一种设计规则。
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引用次数: 0
Identification of Key Risk Hotspots in Mega-Airport Surface Based on Monte Carlo Simulation 基于蒙特卡洛模拟的大型机场表面关键风险热点识别
Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.3390/aerospace11040254
Wen Tian, Xuefang Zhou, Jianan Yin, Yuchen Li, Yining Zhang
The complex layout of the airport surface, coupled with interrelated vehicle behaviors and densely mixed traffic flows, frequently leads to operational conflict risks. To address this issue, research was conducted on the recognition of characteristics and risk assessment for airport surface operations in mixed traffic flows. Firstly, a surface topological network model was established based on the analysis of the physical structure features of the airport surface. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, the simulation framework for airport surface traffic operations was proposed, enabling the simulation of mixed traffic flows involving aircraft and vehicles. Secondly, from various perspectives, including topological structural characteristics, network vulnerabilities, and traffic complexity, a comprehensive system for feature indices and their measurement methods was developed to identify risk hotspots in mixed traffic flows on the airport surface, which facilitated the extraction of comprehensive risk elements for any node’s operation. Finally, a weighting rule for risk hotspot feature indices based on the CRITIC–entropy method was designed, and a risk assessment method for surface operations based on TOPSIS–gray relational analysis was proposed. This method accurately measured risk indices for airport surface operations hotspots. Simulations conducted at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport demonstrate that the proposed methods achieve high simulation accuracy. The identified surface risk hotspots closely matched actual conflict areas, resulting in a 20% improvement in the accuracy of direct risk hotspot identification compared to simulation experiments. Additionally, 10.9% of nodes in the airport surface network were identified as risk hotspots, including 3 nodes with potential conflicts between aircraft and ground vehicles and 21 nodes with potential conflicts between aircraft. The proposed methods can effectively provide guidance for identifying potential “aircraft–vehicle” conflicts in complex airport surface layouts and scientifically support informed decisions in airport surface operation safety management.
机场地面布局复杂,加上车辆行为相互关联,交通流密集混合,经常导致运行冲突风险。针对这一问题,开展了混合交通流下机场地面运行特征识别与风险评估研究。首先,在分析机场地面物理结构特征的基础上,建立了地面拓扑网络模型。基于蒙特卡罗仿真方法,提出了机场地面交通运行仿真框架,实现了对飞机和车辆混合交通流的仿真。其次,从拓扑结构特征、网络脆弱性、交通复杂性等多角度出发,建立了一套完整的特征指数体系及其测量方法,以识别机场地面混合交通流的风险热点,为提取任意节点运行的综合风险要素提供了便利。最后,设计了基于 CRITIC-熵法的风险热点特征指数加权规则,并提出了基于 TOPSIS-灰色关系分析的地面运行风险评估方法。该方法准确测算了机场地面运行热点风险指数。在深圳宝安国际机场进行的仿真表明,所提出的方法具有较高的仿真精度。所识别的地面风险热点与实际冲突区域非常吻合,与模拟实验相比,直接风险热点识别的准确率提高了 20%。此外,机场地表网络中有 10.9% 的节点被识别为风险热点,其中包括 3 个飞机与地面车辆潜在冲突的节点和 21 个飞机之间潜在冲突的节点。所提出的方法可有效指导识别复杂机场地面布局中潜在的 "飞机-车辆 "冲突,为机场地面运行安全管理的知情决策提供科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
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