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Multi-agent reinforcement learning method for joint optimization of block assignment and yard crane redeployment at river-sea intermodal container terminal 基于多智能体强化学习的江海联运集装箱码头分段分配与堆场起重机调配联合优化
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2025.104271
Huakun Liu , Wenyuan Wang , Yun Peng , Shuzheng Yang , Hongbin Tian , Qiang Qi
The continuous growth of global maritime trade and dynamic operational characteristics of river-sea intermodal container terminals create an urgent need to enhance transshipment efficiency. Block assignment and yard crane (YC) redeployment (BA-YCR) are two tightly coupled scheduling processes that significantly impact overall yard operational efficiency. In response to minute-level workload fluctuations, effectively optimizing the BA-YCR problem in real time remains challenging. To this end, this study proposes a multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL)-based approach for real-time optimization of the BA-YCR problem. The BA-YCR is formulated as a Markov Decision Process model, with the objective of minimizing YC redeployments, operational delays, and transport time. A hybrid reward mechanism is designed to balance exploration and coordination between agents. A two-stage multi-agent decision framework is developed, in which the coupling scheduling policies are trained using the Proximal Policy Optimization algorithm. Numerical experiments demonstrate that, the proposed MARL-based approach consistently outperforms benchmark methods. The well-trained scheduling policies achieve improvements of 0.2% to 81.3% in solution quality, while maintaining a computation time of less than 5 seconds, even in large-scale scenarios. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses based on a real-world container terminal further validate the practical applicability and generalization of the proposed approach. The results not only support terminal operators in developing reliable real-time BA-YCR strategies, but also offer practical insights for real-time scheduling optimization using MARL-based method in broader engineering applications.
全球海上贸易的持续增长和河海多式联运集装箱码头的动态运作特点,迫切需要提高转运效率。区块分配和堆场起重机(YC)重新部署(BA-YCR)是两个紧密耦合的调度过程,对整个堆场的运营效率产生重大影响。为了应对分钟级的工作负载波动,实时有效地优化BA-YCR问题仍然具有挑战性。为此,本研究提出了一种基于多智能体强化学习(MARL)的方法来实时优化BA-YCR问题。BA-YCR是一个马尔可夫决策过程模型,其目标是最大限度地减少YC的重新部署、操作延迟和传输时间。设计了一种混合奖励机制来平衡智能体之间的探索和协调。提出了一种两阶段多智能体决策框架,其中使用近端策略优化算法训练耦合调度策略。数值实验表明,本文提出的基于marl的方法始终优于基准方法。训练有素的调度策略可以将解决方案质量提高0.2%到81.3%,同时即使在大规模场景下,计算时间也保持在5秒以下。此外,基于实际集装箱码头的敏感性分析进一步验证了该方法的实用性和泛化性。研究结果不仅支持码头运营商制定可靠的实时BA-YCR策略,还为在更广泛的工程应用中使用基于marl的方法进行实时调度优化提供了实际见解。
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引用次数: 0
A novel discriminative joint adversarial network for quantitatively detecting wheel polygonization of heavy-haul locomotives across variable running conditions 一种用于重载机车变工况下车轮多边形定量检测的新型判别联合对抗网络
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2026.104377
Maoyong Dong, Shiqian Chen, Hongbing Wang, Wanming Zhai
Timely quantitative detection of wheel polygonal wear is of great significance for railway maintenance and improving the train running quality. However, existing deep learning-based detection methods struggle with speed variation-induced feature distribution shifts, exhibiting weak transferability and failing to achieve quantitative diagnosis of wheel defects. To address these issues, a novel discriminative joint adversarial network (NDJAN) for polygonal fault detection under varying running speeds is proposed in this paper. A multi-branch parallel ResNet is first developed to extract sensitive features from raw signals using shortcut connections, which can preserve critical wear amplitude-related information and alleviate gradient vanishing problems. Then, a two-level discriminative feature fusion (TLDFF) scheme is designed with a hybrid attention mechanism and lightweight depthwise separable convolutions. The former is employed to amplify discriminative features, while the latter achieves intelligent fusion of multi-branch features through learnable weighting coefficients, ensuring optimal integration of complementary information from different branches. Finally, an implicit-explicit joint distribution alignment (IEJDA) strategy is presented to address fundamental transfer distribution discrepancies under variable operating conditions. This module accomplishes global distribution matching and fine-grained adaptation of decision boundaries by acting on the feature layer and regression decision layer, respectively. Both dynamics simulations and field tests are carried out to demonstrate that the proposed NDJAN approach can effectively and accurately detect the polygonal wear amplitudes.
车轮多边形磨损的及时定量检测对铁路维修和提高列车运行质量具有重要意义。然而,现有的基于深度学习的检测方法难以应对速度变化引起的特征分布偏移,可转移性较弱,无法实现车轮缺陷的定量诊断。针对这些问题,本文提出了一种新的用于变转速下多边形故障检测的判别联合对抗网络(NDJAN)。首先开发了一个多分支并行ResNet,使用快捷连接从原始信号中提取敏感特征,可以保留关键磨损幅度相关信息并缓解梯度消失问题。然后,设计了一种混合注意机制和轻量级深度可分离卷积的两级判别特征融合方案。前者用于放大判别特征,后者通过可学习的加权系数实现多分支特征的智能融合,保证不同分支互补信息的最优融合。最后,提出了一种隐式显式联合分配对齐(IEJDA)策略来解决变工况下的基本转移分配差异。该模块分别作用于特征层和回归决策层,实现全局分布匹配和决策边界的细粒度自适应。动力学仿真和现场试验结果表明,所提出的NDJAN方法能够有效、准确地检测多边形磨损幅值。
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引用次数: 0
An improved penalty kriging method for mixed qualitative and quantitative factors 一种改进的定性与定量混合罚克里格法
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2026.104407
Dahao Chen , Zhijun Cheng
In the testing problem of weapon systems, the construction of weapon system surrogate models presents the following three challenges: limited samples, mixed qualitative and quantitative factors, and high-dimensional analysis. These factors collectively hinder the accuracy and feasibility of modelling and the solution. To address these issues, this paper proposes an improved penalty Kriging method that combines qualitative and quantitative factors. The penalty terms for regression coefficients and related parameters are introduced into the trend and correlation functions, respectively, to simultaneously screen the variables of qualitative and quantitative factors. To solve the maximum likelihood estimation problem with a penalty function, the regularisation parameters of the two penalty functions are determined using a grid search with cross-validation. Subsequently, the parameters of the Kriging model are determined via a nested optimisation algorithm. The proposed model is validated using nine numerical functions and a case of missile system hit-rate modelling, and its performance is compared with existing methods. The results indicate that the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the missile hit probability surrogate model, constructed using the proposed penalty blind likelihood Kriging method with qualitative and quantitative mixed factors (QQPBLK) method, is 0.2587. This represents an approximately 30.88% improvement in RRMSE compared to the existing model, while reducing the computational time by approximately 70.01%. Moreover, under constrained computational resources, the proposed method achieves more accurate prediction outcomes than alternative approaches such as the unrestricted covariance, multiplicative covariance, and latent variable Gaussian process methods.
在武器系统测试问题中,武器系统代理模型的构建面临着样本有限、定性和定量因素混合、高维分析等三大挑战。这些因素共同阻碍了建模和解决方案的准确性和可行性。针对这些问题,本文提出了一种改进的定性与定量相结合的刑罚克里格法。在趋势函数和相关函数中分别引入回归系数罚则项和相关参数,同时筛选定性和定量因素变量。为了解决惩罚函数的最大似然估计问题,使用交叉验证的网格搜索确定了两个惩罚函数的正则化参数。随后,通过嵌套优化算法确定Kriging模型的参数。通过9个数值函数和一个导弹系统命中率建模实例对所提模型进行了验证,并与现有方法进行了性能比较。结果表明,采用基于定性和定量混合因子(QQPBLK)方法的惩罚盲似然Kriging方法构建的导弹命中概率代理模型的相对均方根误差(RRMSE)为0.2587。与现有模型相比,这代表了RRMSE的大约30.88%的改进,同时减少了大约70.01%的计算时间。此外,在计算资源受限的情况下,该方法比无限制协方差法、乘法协方差法和隐变量高斯过程法获得了更准确的预测结果。
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引用次数: 0
geof3D: SPARQL geometric functions for co-designing buildings geof3D:用于协同设计建筑的SPARQL几何函数
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2025.104261
Diellza Elshani , Daniel Hernandez , Ali Nakhaee , Anthony A. Arrascue , Steffen Staab , Thomas Wortmann
Semantic Web technologies are increasingly used in the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry, yet the Resource Description Framework (RDF) and its query language, SPARQL, still lack native support for 3D geometry. Existing approaches either reduce geometry to 2D, rely on external spatial databases, or require processing workflows outside the semantic layer. This paper introduces geof3D, an extension to SPARQL that enables 3D geometric computation directly inside RDF triple stores. The framework is grounded in a formal function space derived from Architectural Geometry and provides typed operators for measurement, spatial predicates, constructive solid modeling, and affine transformations. These functions are implemented as SPARQL built-ins in RDF4J, supported by an execution backend that uses Java-based processing together with SFCGAL, a robust computational geometry engine accessed through the Java Native Interface (JNI). The system supports operations including geometric validation, Boolean solids, 3D spatial queries, and shape transformations without leaving the RDF environment. We evaluate geof3D using real building models from the Large-Scale Construction Robotics Laboratory and show that the framework supports spatial alignment, clash detection, and algorithmic modeling entirely through RDF-native queries. The evaluation examines both expressiveness and implementation performance, combining in-browser benchmarking with direct JNI measurements and comparative testing against a PostGIS configuration to assess performance, scalability, and geometric fidelity. All code, queries, datasets, and benchmarks are openly released. This work shows that SPARQL can serve not only as a semantic query language but also as a computational interface for 3D co-design, enabling integrated, interoperable, and geometry-aware workflows for building information management.
语义Web技术越来越多地用于体系结构、工程和构造(AEC)行业,但是资源描述框架(RDF)及其查询语言SPARQL仍然缺乏对3D几何的本地支持。现有的方法要么将几何图形简化为二维,要么依赖外部空间数据库,要么需要在语义层之外处理工作流。本文介绍了geof3D,它是SPARQL的一个扩展,可以在RDF三重存储中直接进行三维几何计算。该框架以源自Architectural Geometry的正式函数空间为基础,并为测量、空间谓词、构造实体建模和仿射转换提供了类型运算符。这些函数在RDF4J中作为SPARQL内置实现,由使用基于Java的处理和SFCGAL(通过Java本机接口(JNI)访问的健壮的计算几何引擎)的执行后端支持。该系统支持的操作包括几何验证、布尔实体、3D空间查询和形状转换,而无需离开RDF环境。我们使用来自大规模建筑机器人实验室的真实建筑模型来评估geof3D,并表明该框架完全通过rdf原生查询支持空间对齐、冲突检测和算法建模。该评估检查了表现力和实现性能,将浏览器内基准测试与直接JNI测量和针对PostGIS配置的比较测试相结合,以评估性能、可伸缩性和几何保真度。所有代码、查询、数据集和基准测试都是公开发布的。这项工作表明,SPARQL不仅可以作为语义查询语言,还可以作为3D协同设计的计算接口,为建筑信息管理提供集成的、可互操作的和几何感知的工作流。
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引用次数: 0
AECBench: A hierarchical benchmark for knowledge evaluation of large language models in the AEC field AECBench: AEC领域大型语言模型知识评估的层次基准
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2026.104314
Chen Liang , Zhaoqi Huang , Haofen Wang , Fu Chai , Chunying Yu , Huanhuan Wei , Zhengjie Liu , Yanpeng Li , Hongjun Wang , Ruifeng Luo , Xianzhong Zhao
Large language models (LLMs), as a novel information technology, are seeing increasing adoption in the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) field. They have shown their potential to streamline processes throughout the building lifecycle. However, the robustness and reliability of LLMs in such a specialized and safety-critical domain remain to be evaluated. To address this challenge, this paper establishes AECBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to quantify the strengths and limitations of current LLMs in the AEC domain. The benchmark features a five-level, cognition-oriented evaluation framework (i.e., Knowledge Memorization, Knowledge Understanding, Knowledge Reasoning, Knowledge Calculation, and Knowledge Application). Based on the framework, 23 representative evaluation tasks were defined. These tasks were derived from authentic AEC practice, with scope ranging from codes retrieval to specialized documents generation. Subsequently, a 4800-question dataset encompassing diverse formats, including open-ended questions, was crafted primarily by engineers and validated through a two-round expert review. Furthermore, an “LLM-as-a-Judge” approach was introduced to provide a scalable and consistent methodology for evaluating complex, long-form responses leveraging expert-derived rubrics. Through the evaluation of nine LLMs, a clear performance decline across five cognitive levels was revealed. Despite demonstrating proficiency in foundational tasks at the Knowledge Memorization and Understanding levels, the models showed significant performance deficits, particularly in interpreting knowledge from tables in building codes, executing complex reasoning and calculation, and generating domain-specific documents. Consequently, this study lays the groundwork for future research and development aimed at the robust and reliable integration of LLMs into safety-critical engineering practices.
大型语言模型(llm)作为一种新的信息技术,在体系结构、工程和构造(AEC)领域的应用越来越广泛。它们已经显示出在整个建筑生命周期中简化流程的潜力。然而,法学硕士在这样一个专业和安全关键领域的稳健性和可靠性仍有待评估。为了应对这一挑战,本文建立了AECBench,这是一个全面的基准,旨在量化当前AEC领域法学硕士的优势和局限性。该基准采用以认知为导向的五级评价框架(即知识记忆、知识理解、知识推理、知识计算和知识应用)。在此基础上,定义了23个具有代表性的评价任务。这些任务来源于真实的AEC实践,范围从代码检索到专门的文档生成。随后,一个包含多种格式(包括开放式问题)的4800个问题的数据集主要由工程师制作,并通过两轮专家评审进行验证。此外,引入了“法学硕士作为法官”的方法,以提供可扩展和一致的方法,以利用专家衍生的准则来评估复杂的长篇响应。通过对九位法学硕士的评估,我们发现他们在五个认知水平上的表现明显下降。尽管在知识记忆和理解水平上展示了对基础任务的熟练程度,这些模型显示了显著的性能缺陷,特别是在解释建筑规范中的表中的知识、执行复杂的推理和计算以及生成特定领域的文档方面。因此,本研究为未来的研究和开发奠定了基础,旨在将llm稳健可靠地集成到安全关键工程实践中。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating segmentation and vision-language model for automated and interpretable building damage assessment from satellite imagery 基于分割和视觉语言模型的卫星图像自动可解释建筑损伤评估
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2026.104320
Yong Wang , Jiawei Cui , Changhai Zhai , Xigui Tao , Yuhao Li
The rapid assessment of constructed facilities after extreme events is a knowledge-intensive task critical for effective emergency management. However, methodologies for automated, object-level damage assessment at scale remain underdeveloped, often lacking fine-grained interpretability or scalability. This paper introduces a framework that integrates instance segmentation with temporal Vision Language Model (VLM), which is empowered with visual damage reasoning capabilities through fine-tuning on domain-specific knowledge, for the automated and interpretable assessment of structural assets from satellite imagery. Our three-stage approach synergizes: high-precision segmentation via a modified Segment Anything Model (SAM); spatiotemporal data pairing to isolate asset-specific changes; and BDAChat, the first temporal VLM fine-tuned for object-level damage assessment. Unlike traditional black-box models, BDAChat provides both high-accuracy damage classification and causal interpretations, serving as an intelligent damage inference system. The framework’s effectiveness and scalability are validated through the Lahaina wildfire and hurricane Ian case study. This modular framework automates and accelerates the object-level building damage assessment process, demonstrating significant potential for real-time building damage evaluation and resilient infrastructure planning. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/WangYong921/BDAChat.
极端事件发生后对已建成设施的快速评估是一项知识密集型任务,对有效的应急管理至关重要。然而,用于自动的、大规模的对象级损害评估的方法仍然不发达,通常缺乏细粒度的可解释性或可伸缩性。本文介绍了一个将实例分割与时间视觉语言模型(VLM)相结合的框架,该框架通过对特定领域知识的微调,赋予了视觉损伤推理能力,用于对卫星图像中的结构资产进行自动化和可解释的评估。我们的三阶段方法协同:通过改进的分段任意模型(SAM)进行高精度分割;时空数据配对分离资产特定变化;BDAChat是第一个对目标级伤害评估进行微调的时间VLM。与传统的黑盒模型不同,BDAChat提供了高精度的损伤分类和因果解释,可作为智能损伤推理系统。通过Lahaina野火和飓风Ian的案例研究验证了该框架的有效性和可扩展性。这种模块化框架自动化并加速了目标级建筑损伤评估过程,展示了实时建筑损伤评估和弹性基础设施规划的巨大潜力。代码和数据集可从https://github.com/WangYong921/BDAChat获得。
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引用次数: 0
TFD-Trans: Time-frequency hierarchical decomposition transformer for mechanical fault diagnosis TFD-Trans:机械故障诊断的时频分层分解变压器
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2025.104303
Huan Wang , Zi-Hao Ren , Junyu Qi
Rolling bearings are critical components in rotating machinery, and their health directly affects the safety and stability of industrial equipment. To improve fault identification under strong noise and complex operating conditions, this paper proposes a Time–Frequency Decomposition Transformer (TFD-Trans) for robust rolling bearing fault diagnosis. TFD-Trans integrates wavelet transform and Fourier transform within a signal-processing-informed deep architecture. A wavelet-driven frequency decomposition module hierarchically partitions vibration signals into multiple sub-bands, enabling fine-grained multi-scale feature extraction. A Fourier-driven autocorrelation encoding module then models global periodic dependencies in the frequency domain and enhances fault-sensitive representations. Extensive experiments on two real-world rolling bearing datasets show that TFD-Trans consistently achieves higher accuracy and stronger noise robustness than existing mainstream methods across multiple operating and signal-to-noise conditions.
滚动轴承是旋转机械中的关键部件,其健康与否直接影响工业设备的安全稳定运行。为了提高在强噪声和复杂工况下的故障识别能力,提出了一种用于滚动轴承故障鲁棒诊断的时频分解变压器(TFD-Trans)。TFD-Trans将小波变换和傅立叶变换集成在一个信号处理的深度架构中。小波驱动的频率分解模块将振动信号分层划分为多个子带,实现了细粒度的多尺度特征提取。然后,傅里叶驱动的自相关编码模块在频域中建模全局周期依赖并增强故障敏感表示。在两个真实滚动轴承数据集上进行的大量实验表明,在多种操作和信噪比条件下,TFD-Trans始终比现有主流方法具有更高的精度和更强的噪声鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
A two-phase cost sensitive-based domain adversarial neural network for anomaly detection in mass customized production 大规模定制生产中基于成本敏感的两相域对抗神经网络异常检测
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2026.104371
Yuan Gao , Thong Ngee Goh , Qingan Cui , Qing Zhang , Zhen He
In the context of globalization and intense market competition, detecting anomalies in products is vital for enterprises to improve quality, enhance efficiency, and reduce costs. Enterprises are also pursuing mass customization to meet personalized customer needs. However, customized products are typically produced in small batches. Furthermore, modern manufacturing processes typically exhibit low defective rates. Additionally, quality results are only available after the inspections. These characteristics lead to the challenges of small sample sizes, imbalanced data, and delayed label acquisition for production data, potentially undermining the effectiveness of existing anomaly detection models. To cope with these challenges, this study proposes a two-phase cost sensitive domain adversarial neural network framework that leverages transfer learning to apply knowledge from similar mass-standardized products to customized products. When process parameters are available but inspection results are not, an unsupervised domain adversarial neural network integrated with cost-sensitive learning is employed to address the issues of small sample sizes and unlabeled data. Within this network, the cost-sensitive learning component simultaneously tackles data imbalance by biasing the label predictor towards the minority class through higher loss assignment compared to the majority class. Once inspection results become available for some customized products, the label predictor loss for these labeled samples is incorporated to further enhance anomaly detection. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods in practical smartphone speaker and laptop solid-state drive manufacturing processes.
在全球化和激烈的市场竞争背景下,产品异常检测对企业提高质量、提高效率、降低成本至关重要。企业也在追求大规模定制,以满足客户的个性化需求。然而,定制产品通常是小批量生产的。此外,现代制造工艺通常表现出较低的不良率。此外,质量结果只有在检验后才能得到。这些特征导致了小样本量、数据不平衡以及生产数据的标签获取延迟的挑战,潜在地破坏了现有异常检测模型的有效性。为了应对这些挑战,本研究提出了一种两阶段成本敏感域对抗神经网络框架,该框架利用迁移学习将类似大规模标准化产品的知识应用于定制产品。当过程参数可用但检测结果不可用时,采用无监督域对抗神经网络与成本敏感学习相结合来解决小样本量和未标记数据的问题。在这个网络中,成本敏感的学习组件同时通过比多数类更高的损失分配将标签预测器偏向少数类来处理数据不平衡。一旦某些定制产品的检测结果可用,这些标记样品的标签预测器损失将被纳入,以进一步增强异常检测。实验结果表明,该方法在智能手机扬声器和笔记本电脑固态硬盘制造过程中优于其他最先进的异常检测方法。
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引用次数: 0
Intelligent forecasting of tunnel deformation in underground coal mines using a dynamic swarm-tuned adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for knowledge-driven ground control 基于动态群调谐自适应神经模糊推理系统的煤矿井下巷道变形智能预测
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2025.104287
Satar Mahdevari
Timely and accurate forecasting of tunnel deformation is vital for ensuring safety and operational continuity in underground coal mining and other geotechnical infrastructures. However, conventional empirical design practices often lack the formalization, precision, and adaptability required for modern decision-support systems. This study presents an informatics-driven framework, the Dynamic Swarm-Tuned Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (DST-ANFIS), which formalizes empirical geomechanical knowledge by embedding expert-derived fuzzy rules into an adaptive hybrid computational intelligence model. The framework adopts a dual-phase metaheuristic optimization strategy—Improved Lion Optimization Algorithm (ILOA) for global exploration and Dynamic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO) for local refinement—to achieve a robust and interpretable representation of complex rock mass behavior. A case study using geomechanical data from the Tabas coal mine demonstrates that the proposed DST-ANFIS model consistently outperforms both conventional ANFIS-based variants and established machine learning benchmarks—including GA-ANFIS, PSO-ANFIS, XGBoost, SVR, and RF. On the test set, DST-ANFIS achieved the highest predictive accuracy, with an R2 of 0.952 and an RMSE of 12.530. It notably surpassed the best-performing benchmark, XGBoost, improving R2 by 2.8% (0.952 vs. 0.926) and reducing RMSE by 19.9% (12.530 vs. 15.640). The model also outperformed PSO-ANFIS, yielding a 2.7% increase in R2 and a 24.8% decrease in RMSE, further confirming its robustness and precision across comparative metrics. Beyond predictive performance, the framework generates an interpretable fuzzy rule base that clarifies causal relationships between geomechanical parameters and deformation responses, transforming raw monitoring data into formalized, actionable engineering knowledge for intelligent and proactive ground control. This research advances engineering informatics by providing a scalable methodology for embedding empirical expertise into adaptive computational intelligence, thereby contributing to knowledge formalization and intelligent decision-support in engineering. While demonstrated in mining, the methodology generalizes to adaptive infrastructure management and complex geotechnical systems, underscoring the broader potential of dual-phase hybrid neuro-fuzzy models for engineering informatics.
及时、准确地预测巷道变形对煤矿地下开采和其他岩土基础设施的安全和运行连续性至关重要。然而,传统的经验设计实践往往缺乏现代决策支持系统所需的形式化、精确性和适应性。本研究提出了一个信息学驱动的框架,即动态群体调谐自适应神经模糊推理系统(DST-ANFIS),该系统通过将专家衍生的模糊规则嵌入到自适应混合计算智能模型中来形式化经验地质力学知识。该框架采用双阶段元启发式优化策略——改进的狮子优化算法(ILOA)进行全局勘探,动态粒子群优化(DPSO)进行局部细化——以实现复杂岩体行为的鲁棒性和可解释性表示。使用Tabas煤矿地质力学数据的案例研究表明,所提出的DST-ANFIS模型始终优于传统的基于anfis的变量和已建立的机器学习基准,包括GA-ANFIS、PSO-ANFIS、XGBoost、SVR和RF。在测试集上,DST-ANFIS的预测准确率最高,R2为0.952,RMSE为12.530。它明显超过了表现最好的基准XGBoost, R2提高了2.8%(0.952对0.926),RMSE降低了19.9%(12.530对15.640)。该模型也优于PSO-ANFIS, R2增加2.7%,RMSE降低24.8%,进一步证实了其在比较指标中的稳健性和准确性。除了预测性能之外,该框架还生成了一个可解释的模糊规则库,澄清了地质力学参数和变形响应之间的因果关系,将原始监测数据转换为形式化的、可操作的工程知识,用于智能和主动的地面控制。本研究通过提供可扩展的方法将经验专业知识嵌入到自适应计算智能中,从而促进了工程中的知识形式化和智能决策支持,从而推动了工程信息学的发展。虽然在采矿中得到了证明,但该方法可以推广到自适应基础设施管理和复杂的岩土工程系统,强调了工程信息学的双相混合神经模糊模型的更广泛潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Trend extrapolation for technology forecasting: Leveraging LSTM neural networks for trend analysis of space exploration vessels 技术预测的趋势外推:利用LSTM神经网络进行空间探索船的趋势分析
IF 9.9 1区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2025.104226
Peng-Hung Tsai, Daniel Berleant
Forecasting technological advancement in complex domains such as space exploration presents significant challenges due to the intricate interaction of technical, economic, and policy-related factors. The field of technology forecasting has long relied on quantitative trend extrapolation techniques, such as growth curves (e.g., Moore’s law) and time series models, to project technological progress. To assess the current state of these methods, we conducted an updated systematic literature review (SLR) that incorporates recent advances. This review highlights a growing trend toward machine learning-based hybrid models.
Motivated by this review, we developed a forecasting model that combines long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks with an augmentation of Moore’s law to predict spacecraft lifetimes. Operational lifetime is an important engineering characteristic of spacecraft and a potential proxy for technological progress in space exploration. Lifetimes were modeled as depending on launch date and additional predictors.
Our modeling analysis introduces a novel advance in the recently introduced Start Time End Time Integration (STETI) approach. STETI addresses a critical right censoring problem known to bias lifetime analyses: the more recent the launch dates, the shorter the lifetimes of the spacecraft that have failed and can thus contribute lifetime data. Longer-lived spacecraft are still operating and therefore do not contribute data. This systematically distorts putative lifetime versus launch date curves by biasing lifetime estimates for recent launch dates downward. STETI mitigates this distortion by interconverting between expressing lifetimes as functions of launch time and modeling them as functions of failure time. This study is the first to apply STETI within a neural network framework. Hyperparameter tuning via Bayesian optimization identified the best-performing model, which outperforms a regression-based baseline. The model’s predictions across hypothetical scenarios highlight the influence of factors such as spacecraft launch mass, mission destination, and country of manufacture. The results provide insights relevant to space mission planning and policy decision-making.
由于技术、经济和政策相关因素的复杂相互作用,预测空间探索等复杂领域的技术进步面临着重大挑战。技术预测领域长期依靠定量趋势外推技术,例如增长曲线(例如摩尔定律)和时间序列模型来预测技术进步。为了评估这些方法的现状,我们进行了一项最新的系统文献综述(SLR),纳入了最近的进展。这篇综述强调了基于机器学习的混合模型的发展趋势。受此综述的启发,我们开发了一种预测模型,该模型将长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络与摩尔定律的增强相结合,以预测航天器的寿命。使用寿命是航天器的一项重要工程特性,也是空间探索技术进步的潜在指标。寿命是根据发射日期和其他预测因素建模的。我们的建模分析介绍了最近引入的开始时间结束时间集成(STETI)方法的新进展。STETI解决了一个众所周知的偏差寿命分析的关键右审查问题:发射日期越近,失败航天器的寿命越短,因此可以提供寿命数据。寿命较长的航天器仍在运行,因此不能提供数据。这系统地扭曲了假定的寿命与发射日期的曲线,使最近发射日期的寿命估计向下倾斜。STETI通过将寿命表示为发射时间的函数和将其建模为故障时间的函数之间的相互转换,减轻了这种扭曲。这项研究首次将STETI应用于神经网络框架。通过贝叶斯优化进行的超参数调优确定了性能最佳的模型,该模型优于基于回归的基线。该模型跨假设情景的预测强调了航天器发射质量、任务目的地和制造国等因素的影响。研究结果为空间任务规划和政策决策提供了相关见解。
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引用次数: 0
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Advanced Engineering Informatics
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