Ecological Modelling最新文献_第10页

Gorge floodplain landscape dynamics and sustainability: Insights from human-nature interactions 峡谷洪泛平原景观动态和可持续性：来自人与自然相互作用的见解

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111361

Jin Zhang , Wen Wen , Jieao Shen , Chang Li , Haimeng Liu

More than one billion people worldwide reside in mountain area, most of which are concentrated in gorge floodplains, grappling with the dual challenges of flooding and land scarcity. The sustainability assessment of gorge floodplains, while a critical topic within sustainability science, remains notably under-researched. We used remote sensing, statistical, and research data to analyze landscape pattern changes and environmental-socioeconomic coupling trends in the Mentougou gorge floodplain (MGF), China. Over the past 20 years, the MGF has generally transformed from a production-oriented to an ecology-oriented landscape, which can be divided into three stages: an internal adjustment period of the pro-duction landscape, a transition period to an ecology-oriented landscape, and a supplementary construction period of infrastructure. The coupling coordination between the environmental and socioeconomic systems in MGF has improved from serious imbalance to good coordination. However, this coordination relationship has shown a trend of slowing down or even stagnation in recent years, posing a risk to the long-term sustainability of the regional landscape system. Therefore, this article proposes that the traditional "incremental development" approach must be replaced by "inventory updates" through Nature-based Solutions. The methodology can guide other studies, and the results can support local governments in formulating sustainable development policies.

全球有超过10亿人居住在山区，其中大部分集中在峡谷洪泛平原，面临着洪水和土地稀缺的双重挑战。峡谷洪泛平原的可持续性评价是可持续性科学中的一个重要课题，但目前的研究仍显不足。利用遥感、统计和研究数据，分析了门头沟峡洪泛平原景观格局变化及其环境—社会经济耦合趋势。近20年来，MGF总体上经历了从生产型景观向生态型景观的转变，可分为生产型景观内部调整期、生态型景观转型期和基础设施配套建设期三个阶段。MGF环境与社会经济系统的耦合协调性由严重失衡向良好协调发展。然而，近年来这种协调关系呈现出放缓甚至停滞的趋势，对区域景观系统的长期可持续性构成了威胁。因此，本文提出，传统的“增量开发”方法必须通过基于自然的解决方案被“库存更新”所取代。该方法可为其他研究提供指导，研究结果可为地方政府制定可持续发展政策提供支持。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to ‘A decade of mizer: A systematic review of advancements and applications of size spectrum modeling in aquatic ecosystems’ [Ecological Modelling, Volume 508, September 2025, 111241] “十年的捕集器：对水生生态系统中尺寸谱建模的进展和应用的系统回顾”的更正[生态建模，第508卷，2025年9月，111241]

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111391

M. Grazia Pennino , D.J. Nachón , D. Bamio , M. Cousido-Rocha , G. Delius , F. Izquierdo , A. Paz , E. Abad , M.A. Torres , I. González Herraiz , M.P. Sampedro , I.M. Rabanal , F. Velasco , P. Verisimo , Y. Vila , S. Cerviño

引用次数: 0

Construction and optimization of ecological network in karst regions under rocky desertification disturbance: A case study of Qujing City, China 石漠化扰动下喀斯特地区生态网络建设与优化——以曲靖市为例

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111389

Heng Gai , Bing Wu , Yuanxiang Wu , Zhihui Ren

Constructing ecological networks is a promising strategy to reconcile urban development with habitat fragmentation. However, there is limited knowledge regarding methods to construct and optimize ecological networks in karst regions. This study focuses on Qujing City in Yunnan Province, China, a typical karst region. Ecological sources are identified by integrating morphological spatial pattern analysis, landscape connectivity, habitat quality, and rocky desertification sensitivity. A resistance surface modified by rocky desertification is used in the minimum cumulative resistance model to extract potential corridors. The network structure is assessed using complex network indicators to identify key components. To enhance resilience, an improved low-degree-first edge-adding method incorporating rocky desertification sensitivity was developed and evaluated through robustness simulations. The findings indicate that: (1) Qujing City contains 79 ecological sources, including 6 at level 1, 14 at level 2, and 59 at level 3, predominantly located in the north-central region, covering woodland and grassland areas and the total area was 5423.04 km². (2) A total of 91 ecological corridors were identified, comprising 10 primary corridors, 24 secondary corridors, and 57 tertiary corridors, with lengths of 156.84 km, 490.72 km, and 988.89 km, respectively. (3) The addition of 27 supplementary edges significantly enhanced the ecological network’s robustness to rocky desertification, increasing its resistance to both random and targeted disturbances. Optimization improved the ecological network’s connectivity, robustness, and stability, enhancing ecological flow and reducing vulnerability to rocky desertification. This study offers a novel approach to ecological network design and conservation in karst regions.

构建生态网络是协调城市发展与生境破碎化的有效策略。然而，关于喀斯特地区生态网络的构建和优化方法的认识有限。本文以中国云南省曲靖市为研究对象，研究了典型的喀斯特地区。通过综合形态空间格局分析、景观连通性、生境质量和石漠化敏感性等因素对生态资源进行识别。最小累积阻力模型采用经石漠化修饰的阻力面提取潜在廊道。使用复杂的网络指标来评估网络结构，以识别关键组件。为了提高恢复力，提出了一种考虑石漠化敏感性的改进的低优先加边方法，并通过鲁棒性模拟进行了评价。结果表明：①曲靖市现有生态资源79个，其中一级生态资源6个，二级生态资源14个，三级生态资源59个，主要分布在中北部地区，覆盖林地和草地，总面积5423.04 km2；(2)共确定生态廊道91条，其中一级廊道10条，二级廊道24条，三级廊道57条，廊道长度分别为156.84 km、490.72 km和988.89 km。(3) 27条补充边的添加显著增强了生态网络对石漠化的鲁棒性，增强了生态网络对随机干扰和定向干扰的抵抗能力。优化提高了生态网络的连通性、鲁棒性和稳定性，增强了生态流动，降低了石漠化脆弱性。该研究为喀斯特地区生态网络的设计与保护提供了新的思路。

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引用次数: 0

Enhancing urban CFD simulations with porous media parameters for representative street trees 基于多孔介质参数的典型行道树城市CFD模拟

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111388

Junghyeon Ahn , Junsuk Kang

This study presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based approach for extracting and validating flow resistance values for six major street tree species commonly found in urban environments. To simplify the modeling process while retaining aerodynamic accuracy, complex tree geometries were replaced with porous media regions in numerical wind tunnel simulations. Pressure drop data across a range of inlet velocities (1–20 m/s) were used to derive species-specific resistance coefficients through second-order polynomial fitting.

The extracted coefficients were validated by comparing the pressure drop profiles of the porous models with those of full-scale tree models, showing strong agreement (coefficient of determination R² ≈ 0.9999) and less than 5% error at higher velocities. The results also revealed that aerodynamic resistance is more closely related to canopy morphology—such as leaf area, shape, and volume fraction—than to leaf density alone.

This method provides a practical and scalable solution for incorporating vegetation effects into urban airflow simulations, significantly reducing computational costs. The findings offer a useful framework for integrating species-specific tree characteristics into urban environmental planning and design, including applications in urban ventilation analysis, pollution dispersion modeling, and green infrastructure planning.

本研究提出了一种基于计算流体动力学（CFD）的方法，用于提取和验证城市环境中常见的六种主要行道树的流动阻力值。为了简化建模过程，同时保持气动精度，在数值风洞模拟中，将复杂的树木几何形状替换为多孔介质区域。在入口速度范围内（1-20 m/s）的压降数据通过二阶多项式拟合得出了物种特有的阻力系数。通过将多孔模型的压降曲线与全尺寸采油树模型的压降曲线进行比较，验证了所提取系数的正确性，结果表明，在较高的速度下，其决定系数R²≈0.9999，误差小于5%。结果还表明，空气阻力与冠层形态（如叶面积、形状和体积分数）的关系比单独与叶密度的关系更密切。该方法为将植被效应纳入城市气流模拟提供了一种实用且可扩展的解决方案，显著降低了计算成本。研究结果为将特定物种的树木特征整合到城市环境规划和设计中提供了一个有用的框架，包括在城市通风分析、污染扩散建模和绿色基础设施规划中的应用。

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引用次数: 0

Persistence of small populations under seasonal resource fluctuations 小种群在季节性资源波动下的持久性

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111420

Viviane M. Oliveira , Fernando Fagundes Ferreira , Ediline L.F. Nguessap , Paulo R.A. Campos

Populations that remain at critical low sizes are acutely sensitive to random fluctuations in birth–death processes and to the accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations. We begin with a deterministic consumer–resource model featuring seasonally forced inputs, and based on this framework, we develop an individual-based, discrete-generation stochastic simulation to capture demographic and mutational randomness. The phase diagram of the deterministic model reveals the existence of three distinct regimes: one in which the population goes extinct, a second regime in which the population remains at a finite size, and finally a third non-physical regime observed at low mortality rates. Our simulation outcomes address the second regime. Two easily measured statistics – the minimum influx

s_{min}

and the fraction of each cycle spent below a critical threshold,

τ / T

– are predictors of extinction. We demonstrate that enhancing long-term population persistence by increasing the peak of resource influx, reducing oscillation amplitude, or phase-shifting multiple resources out of sync is possible.

保持在临界低规模的种群对出生-死亡过程的随机波动和轻度有害突变的积累极为敏感。我们从一个以季节性强制输入为特征的确定性消费者资源模型开始，并基于这个框架，我们开发了一个基于个体的离散生成随机模拟，以捕捉人口统计学和突变随机性。确定性模型的相图显示存在三种不同的状态：一种状态是种群灭绝，第二种状态是种群保持有限规模，最后是低死亡率的第三种非物理状态。我们的模拟结果解决了第二种情况。两个容易测量的统计数据——最小流入smin和每个周期低于临界阈值τ/T的比例——是灭绝的预测指标。我们证明，通过增加资源流入的峰值、减少振荡幅度或相移多个资源不同步来增强长期种群持久性是可能的。

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引用次数: 0

Advancing crop growth modeling: Challenges, model integration, and pathways for improved decision support 推进作物生长建模：挑战、模型集成和改进决策支持的途径

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111415

Adam Shaaban Mgana , Aidi Huo , Yilu Zhao , Padam Raj Joshi , Abderrahim Firaouni

Crop growth models (CGMs) are essential tools for simulating plant growth, optimizing management, and supporting climate-resilient agriculture, yet selecting appropriate models and ensuring accurate predictions remain challenging due to data limitations, model structure constraints, and diverse agroecological conditions. This narrative review synthesizes CGM development, applications, and limitations, emphasizing systematic model selection, calibration, and validation to enhance prediction reliability, alongside best practices in sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, and data integration. A major focus is on model integration and coupling, linking CGMs with hydrological, climate, economic, and spatial models to capture complex biophysical and socio-economic interactions, while multi-model approaches; including ensembles, modular frameworks, and cross-model comparisons, address single-model limitations, improve predictive reliability, and enable scenario-based analyses. Emerging technologies such as remote sensing, real-time sensors, AI, and digital twins further enhance adaptive modeling, automated calibration, and actionable decision support, supporting sustainable management, informing climate adaptation, and enabling evidence-based policy development. By combining systematic model selection, model coupling, and technological innovations, this review provides a roadmap for advancing CGMs toward more comprehensive, accurate, and actionable simulations, bridging the gap between modeling science and practical agricultural decision-making.

作物生长模型（cgm）是模拟植物生长、优化管理和支持气候适应型农业的重要工具，但由于数据限制、模型结构约束和农业生态条件的多样性，选择合适的模型和确保准确预测仍然具有挑战性。这篇叙述性综述综合了CGM的发展、应用和局限性，强调了系统的模型选择、校准和验证，以提高预测的可靠性，以及灵敏度分析、不确定性评估和数据集成方面的最佳实践。主要重点是模式整合和耦合，将cgm与水文、气候、经济和空间模型联系起来，以捕捉复杂的生物物理和社会经济相互作用，而多模式方法；包括集成、模块化框架和跨模型比较，解决了单一模型的限制，提高了预测可靠性，并支持基于场景的分析。遥感、实时传感器、人工智能和数字孪生等新兴技术进一步增强了自适应建模、自动校准和可操作决策支持，支持可持续管理，为气候适应提供信息，并促进基于证据的政策制定。通过将系统的模型选择、模型耦合和技术创新相结合，本综述为推进cgm向更全面、准确和可操作的模拟方向发展提供了路线图，弥合了建模科学与实际农业决策之间的差距。

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引用次数: 0

Modelling woody carbon dynamics in tropical dry forests: A case study of the Dry Chaco Region 模拟热带干燥森林的木质碳动态：以干查科地区为例

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111401

Iván Daniel Filip , Pablo Luis Peri , Pedro Fernández , Dante Loto , Sebastián Miguel Kees , Natalia Banegas , José Nasca , Mónica Sacido , Claudia Faverin , Ronaldo Vibart

Deforestation and forest degradation have escalated in tropical dry forests in recent decades, depleting biodiversity and carbon stocks. This is particularly meaningful for the Argentinean Dry Chaco, a deforestation frontier where silvopastoral systems could expand on more than 18 million hectares. Here, we evaluate long term forest and woody carbon dynamics of two silvopastoral systems: Forest management integrated with livestock (herein MBGI) and traditional silvopastoral (TSP), and compared these with undisturbed primary native forests. To do so, we developed a model using systems dynamics methodology, literature review, and expert elicitation, and then parameterized it with over 570 field sampling sites collected across the region. Our results show that in the long-term (i.e., 90 years), forest management integrated with livestock (MBGI) retained 53% more woody carbon than TSP, but 28% less than the undisturbed primary native forest. Moreover, MBGI maintained forest structure over time, with the shrub layer holding 27% of the total carbon stock. In the long term simulation, MBGI showed a positive carbon sequestration rate, whereas TSP showed a negative one. Overall, we provide a robust evaluation of forest population and carbon dynamics for alternative silvopastoral systems in the Dry Chaco region that could be adapted to other tropical dry forests. Our results highlight the medium- to long-term sustainability of semi-intensive silvopastoral systems which sustain forest attributes while allowing for the expansion of agricultural production. This is crucial for deforestation frontiers in tropical dry forests, where finding alternatives to deforestation is essential.

近几十年来，热带干燥森林的毁林和森林退化加剧，导致生物多样性和碳储量枯竭。这对阿根廷的干查科（Dry Chaco）尤其有意义，这里是森林砍伐的前沿地带，森林牧区的面积可能扩大到1800多万公顷。在此，我们评估了两种森林牧养系统（MBGI）和传统森林牧养（TSP）的长期森林和木材碳动态，并将其与未受干扰的原始原生林进行了比较。为此，我们利用系统动力学方法、文献综述和专家启发建立了一个模型，然后用该地区收集的570多个现场采样点对其进行参数化。结果表明，在长期（即90年）内，畜牧业综合管理（MBGI）比TSP多保留53%的木本碳，但比未受干扰的原始原生林少保留28%的木本碳。此外，MBGI长期保持了森林结构，灌木层碳储量占总碳储量的27%。在长期模拟中，MBGI表现为正固碳速率，而TSP表现为负固碳速率。总体而言，我们为干旱查科地区可适应其他热带干旱森林的替代森林生态系统提供了森林种群和碳动态的可靠评估。我们的研究结果强调了半集约化林牧系统的中长期可持续性，该系统在维持森林属性的同时允许农业生产的扩大。这对热带干燥森林的森林砍伐前沿地区至关重要，在那里找到替代森林砍伐的办法至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Using a coupled model and GIS tool in assessing the effect on primary production after nutrient reduction to a Danish estuary 利用耦合模型和GIS工具评估丹麦河口营养盐减少对初级生产的影响

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111403

Mikkel Keller Lees , Kadri Kuusemäe , Anders C. Erichsen , Mogens R. Flindt , Paula Canal-Vergés

This study presents a GIS-based tool using high-resolution spatial data from a validated mechanistic biogeochemical model, as management tool to quantify ecological benefits of nutrient reduction in a Danish estuary. Three nutrient reduction scenarios were simulated, assessing the derived effects on primary production, eelgrass stress parameters, and restoration potential.

Results showed a clear eutrophication gradient, with dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations exponentially decreasing from the main river outlet towards the outer fjord. The GIS tool effectively captured the responses to nutrient reductions, indicating a substantial decrease in phytoplankton production and a shift from pelagic to benthic-controlled primary production. Reduced phytoplankton concentrations improved benthic light conditions, creating extensive areas suitable for natural and/or assisted eelgrass restoration. However, within the relatively short simulation period, this restoration potential was limited, with only slight increases in eelgrass biomass and production observed. This limitation was attributed to high sediment organic content, along with low initial biomass of eelgrass, exceeding thresholds necessary for eelgrass growth.

Consequently, our tool shows that nutrient reductions significantly enhanced water clarity and accelerated the ecological regime shift toward benthic-dominated systems, demonstrating that nutrient reductions are essential for achieving good ecological status (GES). However, the tool also shows that nutrient reduction alone cannot fully achieve GES since sediment characteristics respond slower. Therefore, assisted marine restoration measures are vital for accelerating the recovery process. Finally, through analysis along eutrophication gradients, the tool generates compressible knowledge that can directly be used on local marine planning and management.

本研究提出了一种基于gis的工具，使用来自经过验证的机械生物地球化学模型的高分辨率空间数据，作为量化丹麦河口营养减少的生态效益的管理工具。模拟了3种养分减少情景，评估了其对初级产量、大叶藻胁迫参数和恢复潜力的影响。结果表明，富营养化梯度明显，溶解无机氮（DIN）浓度从主河出水口向外峡湾呈指数递减。地理信息系统工具有效地捕获了对营养物减少的响应，表明浮游植物产量大幅减少，并从上层生物转向底栖生物控制的初级生产。浮游植物浓度的降低改善了底栖生物的光照条件，创造了适合自然和/或辅助大叶藻恢复的广阔区域。然而，在相对较短的模拟期内，这种恢复潜力有限，只观察到大叶藻生物量和产量略有增加。这一限制归因于沉积物有机物含量高，以及大叶藻的初始生物量低，超过了大叶藻生长所需的阈值。因此，我们的工具显示，营养减少显著提高了水的清晰度，加速了生态系统向底栖生物为主的转变，表明营养减少对实现良好的生态状态（GES）至关重要。然而，该工具还显示，由于沉积物特征响应较慢，仅靠营养物质减少不能完全实现GES。因此，辅助海洋恢复措施对于加快恢复进程至关重要。最后，通过分析富营养化梯度，该工具生成可压缩的知识，可直接用于当地的海洋规划和管理。

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引用次数: 0

On scale and complexity in model design for marine reserve planning with Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and Philippines case studies 海洋保护区规划模型设计的规模和复杂性——以大堡礁海洋公园和菲律宾为例

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111395

Stuart Kininmonth , Carl Steinitz

Implementing marine reserves that restrict harmful activities requires careful planning across multiple scales and analytical complexities to be effective. However, many processes, such as larval dispersal, and concepts, like trophic interactions, are encapsulated in models that influence reserve planning but are applicable only at limited scales and specific levels of complexity. A critical question arises: which design approach for model development should be chosen for the specific problem at hand? The design principles that define the boundaries of an individual reserve may not necessarily apply at regional scales. We believe that as the planning scale shifts from regional to local, the focus of design decisions transitions from strategy to tactics and then to detailed considerations. Similarly, designing a reserve for a local reef involves a lower level of analytical complexity than creating an interconnected regional reserve system. Process models, such as direct, thematic, vertical, horizontal, hierarchical, temporal, adaptive, and behavioral, inform the decision-making process at progressively higher levels of complexity. As the scale increases and the associated risk of failure grows, the analytical methods employed must incorporate more complex models. In this context, we present a conceptual framework for marine ecological modelers that acknowledges the roles of scale and complexity within the conservation planning process. The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and the contrasting Philippines reserve network highlights the impact of scale and complexity on planning success.

实施限制有害活动的海洋保护区需要跨多个尺度和复杂的分析进行仔细规划才能有效。然而，许多过程，如幼虫扩散和营养相互作用等概念，都被封装在影响保护区规划的模型中，但只适用于有限的规模和特定的复杂程度。一个关键的问题出现了：应该为手头的特定问题选择哪种模型开发的设计方法？界定单个保护区边界的设计原则不一定适用于区域尺度。我们认为，随着规划规模从区域性转向地方性，设计决策的重点从战略转向战术，再转向细节考虑。同样，与创建一个相互关联的区域保护区系统相比，为当地珊瑚礁设计一个保护区涉及的分析复杂性较低。过程模型，例如直接的、主题的、垂直的、水平的、层次的、时间的、自适应的和行为的，在越来越高的复杂层次上通知决策过程。随着规模的增加和相关的失败风险的增加，所采用的分析方法必须包含更复杂的模型。在此背景下，我们为海洋生态建模者提出了一个概念性框架，该框架承认规模和复杂性在保护规划过程中的作用。大堡礁海洋公园和对比鲜明的菲律宾保护区网络突出了规模和复杂性对规划成功的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring future ecosystem service trade-off and key driving factors in the ecologically fragile region, northern China 中国北方生态脆弱区未来生态系统服务权衡及其关键驱动因素探讨

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111412

Xueping Chen , Xueyong Zhao , Yanming Zhao , Xiaowen Zhu , Liya Bai , Hongmei Yu

Aligning the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs) is crucial for achieving sustainable management of the grain-water relationship in arid and semiarid regions. However, research on matching the supply and demand of ES_S to advance the sustainability of grain-water systems remains limited, particularly under future scenarios in the ecologically fragile semiarid regions of northern China. This study addressed this gap by analyzing grain production (GP) and water yield (WY) under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios in Horqin Sandy Land (HQSL), a typical grain production base with water resource scarcity in semiarid China. Markov-PLUS model was employed to predict land use and cover change (LUCC) in 2030, 2040 and 2050 under future SSP126, 245 and 585 scenarios. InVEST model and equation were employed to evaluate the spatial patterns of WY and GP. Key findings include: (1) GP was oversupplied in all scenarios, while WY showed a supply-demand deficit in 2020 and 2040 SSP585 scenario. (2) An increase in cultivated land was associated with a decrease in WY's ESDR and an increase in GP's, and an optimal trade-off was found under the 2030 SSP126 scenario. (3) Precipitation positively influenced both WY and GP, while GDP and population density also exerted significant influences on GP. This study offers insights into ESs dynamics and a framework for sustainable grain-water management in semiarid regions.

调整生态系统服务的供需关系对于实现干旱和半干旱地区粮食-水关系的可持续管理至关重要。然而，在中国北方生态脆弱的半干旱区，对生态系统供需匹配以促进粮食水系统可持续性的研究仍然有限。本研究通过分析不同共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景下科尔沁沙地（HQSL）的粮食产量（GP）和产水量（WY）来弥补这一差距。科尔沁沙地是中国半干旱地区典型的水资源短缺粮食生产基地。利用Markov-PLUS模型对未来SSP126、245和585情景下2030、2040和2050年的土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）进行了预测。采用InVEST模型和方程对WY和GP的空间格局进行了评价。主要发现包括：(1)GP在所有情景下都是供过于求，而WY在2020年和2040年SSP585情景下都是供需不足。(2)耕地面积的增加与路网ESDR的减少和GP的增加相关，且在2030年SSP126情景下存在最优权衡关系。(3)降水对WY和GP均有正向影响，GDP和人口密度对GP也有显著影响。该研究为半干旱区可持续的粮食水管理提供了一个框架。

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引用次数: 0