Ecological Modelling最新文献_第10页

Phosphorus dynamics in water and sediments in a large multi-use reservoir under extreme volume variation 极端体积变化下大型多用途水库水体和沉积物中磷的动态

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111316

Iran Eduardo Lima Neto

Castanhão is the largest non-hydropower dam in Latin America, which was built in 2002 to serve as a multi-use strategic reservoir in the Brazilian semiarid. Although this reservoir reached 96 % of its capacity in 2009, a severe drought from 2012-2016 resulted in extreme variations in water storage (2 - 82 %) and total phosphorus (TP) in the water (1.0 ⋅ 10¹ - 2.2 ⋅ 10² mg/m³) and sediments (2.0 ⋅ 10⁵ - 1.4 ⋅ 10⁶ mg/m³), leading to massive fish mortalities and abrupt increases in water treatment costs. In this study, complete-mix TP models considering water and sediment compartments and several improvements compared to previous models such as distinct variabilities of water volume and hypoxic area were developed and tested for the entire study period (2008-2022), including floods and droughts. The model incorporating a stronger pattern of hypoxia in the wet period best represented TP dynamics in the reservoir, with acceptable Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0.46) and percent bias (PBIAS = -8.98 %) for the water, as well as for the sediments (NSE = 0.80 and PBIAS = +0.39 %). Excepting for the output load, all the other TP fluxes decreased from wet to dry periods, following approximately the behavior of inflow and water volume. An average mass balance in the water showed that the TP sources from external load (25.3 %), fish-cage load (16.3 %) and release from anoxic sediments (8.2 %) were approximately equal to the TP sinks from settling (46.8 %) and output load (3.4 %). On the other hand, a mass balance in the sediments revealed that the TP source from settling (78.5 %) was substantially higher than the TP sinks from release (13.8 %) and burial (7.4 %). Model simulations until 2050 suggested a progressive TP increase both in the water and sediments. Moreover, a total load reduction of at least 80 % would be necessary to stabilize TP concentration in both compartments.

castanh是拉丁美洲最大的非水电大坝，建于2002年，是巴西半干旱地区的一个多用途战略水库。尽管该水库在2009年达到其容量的96%，但2012-2016年的严重干旱导致库水量（2 - 82%），水中总磷（TP）（1.0⋅101 - 2.2⋅102 mg/m³）和沉积物（2.0⋅105 - 1.4⋅106 mg/m³）的极端变化，导致大量鱼类死亡和水处理成本急剧增加。在本研究中，开发了考虑水和沉积物区室的完全混合TP模型，并对之前的模型进行了改进，如水量和缺氧面积的明显变化，并在整个研究期间（2008-2022年）进行了测试，包括洪水和干旱。该模型包含了较强的湿期缺氧模式，最能代表储层的TP动态，对水和沉积物（NSE = 0.80, PBIAS = + 0.39%）具有可接受的Nash-Sutcliffe效率（NSE = 0.46）和百分比偏差（PBIAS = - 8.98%）。除输出负荷外，其他TP通量均随干湿期的变化而减小，大致符合入水量和水量的变化规律。水体的平均质量平衡表明，外部负荷（25.3%）、网箱负荷（16.3%）和缺氧沉积物释放（8.2%）的总磷源与沉降（46.8%）和输出负荷（3.4%）的总磷源大致相等。另一方面，沉积物的质量平衡表明，沉降的总磷源（78.5%）显著高于释放（13.8%）和埋藏（7.4%）的总磷汇。直到2050年的模式模拟表明，水和沉积物中的总磷都在逐渐增加。此外，至少80%的总负荷减少将是稳定两个隔间的TP浓度所必需的。

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引用次数: 0

Thermodynamic exploration of the adaptive cycle 自适应循环的热力学探索

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111354

Mostafa Sadeghi Ghuchani , Brian D. Fath

The adaptive cycle was proposed by Holling in 1985 to explain macroscale patterns and processes of ecosystem dynamics. According to this qualitative model, ecological succession progresses through four stages: 1) exploitation, 2) conservation, 3) collapse, and 4) renewal. Since introducing the adaptive cycle, many efforts have been made to improve, quantify, and expand the application of this model. In this paper, we developed a new thermodynamic model aligned with the four stages of the adaptive cycle. However, in contrast to the classic adaptive cycle, the present model provides a clear, quantified, thermodynamic definition of each stage by specifically considering the rates of entropy and energy production, consumption, and exportation. According to this model, steady state occurs when the entropy production rate and energy consumption rate of living organisms are balanced with the entropy exportation rate and gross primary production of the ecosystem. The growth-oriented exploitation stage (1) requires a positive energy balance and a negative entropy balance. When both energy and entropy balances are negative, the ecosystem enters the conservation phase. If the energy balance is negative and the entropy balance is positive, then the system will collapse (3). Finally, when both entropy and energy balance are positive, new subsystems will emerge and adapt to continue a path of exploration and a new cycle of succession (4). Since this work is based on pure theoretical thermodynamics, these four stages of growth and development may apply to any complex adaptive system.

自适应循环是Holling在1985年提出的，用来解释生态系统动力学的宏观格局和过程。根据这一定性模型，生态演替经历了4个阶段：1)开发、2)保护、3)崩溃和4)更新。自引入自适应周期以来，已经做出了许多努力来改进、量化和扩展该模型的应用。在本文中，我们建立了一个新的热力学模型，与自适应周期的四个阶段相一致。然而，与经典的自适应周期相比，本模型通过具体考虑熵和能量生产、消耗和输出的速率，为每个阶段提供了清晰、量化的热力学定义。根据该模型，当生物的熵产出率和能量消耗率与生态系统的熵输出率和初级生产总量平衡时，就会出现稳态。成长型开发阶段(1)需要正能量平衡和负熵平衡。当能量和熵平衡均为负时，生态系统进入守恒阶段。如果能量平衡为负，熵平衡为正，则系统将崩溃(3)。最后，当熵和能量平衡均为正值时，新的子系统将出现并适应，继续探索路径和新的演替周期(4)。由于这项工作是基于纯理论热力学，这四个阶段的生长和发展可能适用于任何复杂的适应系统。

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引用次数: 0

Adult survival of Dalbulus maidis during the maize off-season under diverse environmental conditions: A stochastic modeling approach 不同环境条件下玉米淡季雏菊成虫的生存：一种随机建模方法

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111359

R.H. Barriga Rubio , M. Otero

Dalbulus maidis, a key maize pest in the Americas, poses significant challenges to agricultural productivity due to its role as a vector for Corn Stunt Disease and its dependency on maize for survival. This study models the dynamics of adult survival of these leafhoppers during the maize off-season under diverse environmental conditions using Weibull distributions and a stochastic age-based compartmental framework. Temperature-dependent survival was validated against experimental data, revealing distinct mortality trends across different environments: presence of maize plants, presence of alternative sources of food, hydration or shelter, and complete absence of water and food. Our findings emphasize the critical influence of the environment on pest resilience, providing insight into its persistence during the maize off-seasons. The proposed model offers a solid foundation for refining pest management practices and enhancing crop protection in diverse agroecosystems.

小飞虱是美洲主要的玉米害虫，由于其作为玉米矮化病的媒介和依赖玉米生存，对农业生产力构成重大挑战。本研究采用威布尔分布和基于年龄的随机区隔框架，模拟了不同环境条件下玉米淡季这些叶蝉成虫的生存动态。根据实验数据验证了温度依赖性生存，揭示了不同环境下不同的死亡率趋势：存在玉米植物，存在替代食物来源，水合作用或庇护所，以及完全缺乏水和食物。我们的研究结果强调了环境对害虫恢复力的关键影响，为其在玉米淡季的持久性提供了见解。所提出的模型为改进有害生物管理做法和加强不同农业生态系统的作物保护提供了坚实的基础。

引用次数: 0

Are locally trained allometric functions of forest aboveground biomass universal across spatial scales and forest disturbance scenarios? 森林地上生物量的局部训练异速生长函数在空间尺度和森林扰动情景中是普遍的吗？

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111339

Benedikt Hartweg , Leonard Schulz , Andreas Huth , Konstantinos Papathanassiou , Lukas W. Lehnert

Large scale above-ground-biomass (AGB) estimation remains highly uncertain. Multi-sensor, multi-scale and multi-temporal analyses are crucial for capturing the dynamics and the heterogeneity of forests. The European Space Agency’s BIOMASS mission will play a key role in future biomass monitoring. Considering the differences in the spatial scales of input datasets, it is essential to investigate these scale effects. This study examines whether locally trained allometric relationships between forest height and AGB are scale-dependent and how forest disturbances impact these estimates.

Using the forest gap model FORMIND, initialized with inventory data from tropical lowland forests close to Manaus (Brazil), we simulated forest height and AGB raster products at resolutions ranging from 20 m to 200 m based on various forest height metrics. Through regression analysis, allometric parameter sets for each resolution step were derived. We then tested the impact of applying these parameters under various conditions, including off-scale and off-scenario usage.

Our results show that applying allometric parameters at mismatched spatial scales introduces significant additional errors. This error becomes more prominent as scale differences increase. Additionally, the type and severity of forest degradation scenario strongly influences the estimation quality. However, dynamically adapting allometric parameter sets to local conditions mitigates these errors. Applying the locally trained parameters to varying disturbance scenarios results in substantial errors, underscoring the importance of incorporating local forest structure in AGB models.

While using off-scale allometric parameters is possible, it introduces additional challenges. Our study highlights the need for local forest structure products to improve large-scale AGB estimation.

大尺度地上生物量（AGB）估算仍然高度不确定。多传感器、多尺度和多时间分析对于捕获森林的动态和异质性至关重要。欧洲航天局的生物质任务将在未来的生物质监测中发挥关键作用。考虑到输入数据集的空间尺度差异，研究这些尺度效应是必要的。本研究考察了森林高度和AGB之间的局部训练异速生长关系是否依赖于尺度，以及森林干扰如何影响这些估计。利用森林间隙模型FORMIND，初始化了巴西马瑙斯附近热带低地森林的清盘数据，基于不同的森林高度指标，模拟了森林高度和AGB光栅产品，分辨率从20米到200米不等。通过回归分析，导出了各分辨步骤的异速参数集。然后，我们测试了在各种条件下应用这些参数的影响，包括非规模和非场景使用。我们的研究结果表明，在不匹配的空间尺度上应用异速参数会引入显著的附加误差。随着尺度差异的增大，这种误差变得更加突出。此外，森林退化情景的类型和严重程度强烈影响估算质量。然而，根据当地条件动态调整异速参数集可以减轻这些误差。将局部训练的参数应用于不同的干扰情景会导致很大的误差，这强调了在AGB模型中纳入局部森林结构的重要性。虽然可以使用非标度异速参数，但它也带来了额外的挑战。我们的研究强调了对当地森林结构产品的需求，以改善大规模的AGB估计。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring household resilience indicators in the context of urban-rural linked water systems and post-disaster scenarios in Kathmandu valley 探讨加德满都谷地城乡供水系统和灾后情景背景下的家庭复原力指标

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111320

Namita Poudel, Rajib Shaw

Water use efficiency has increased by 9 %, yet water stress and scarcity remain pressing global challenges. Additionally, unprecedented disruptions in water systems between supply and demand exacerbate the issue. In this context, households play a crucial role in communicating with relevant authorities about emergencies such as pipe leaks, disaster disruption to the water system, etc. However, if households are unwilling to share water or dissatisfied with the system, conflicts may arise, leading to water scarcity even during non-crisis periods. Although resilient water infrastructure is recognized, displacement due to disasters, protests, reconstruction, and potential labor shortages for future water projects underscore the importance of understanding household resilience. Therefore, this research aims to identify which household indicators help communities cope with disasters and support the water system, in addition to assessing the current household status in both demand and supply zones. Data were collected using two tools: focus group discussions with four groups and household surveys conducted with 438 respondents from Kathmandu valley, Nepal (urban, peri‑urban), and Melamchi (rural areas), divided into eight clusters. The findings revealed that 31 indicators under the PEISE framework (physical, economic, institutional, Social, and Environmental) are affected in the post-disaster context. In addition, critical indicators such as reduced water quantity in urban areas impacting revenue collection, and house damage and displacement due to flooding leading to labor shortages in production areas, illustrate how post-disaster displacement and damage undermine local support mechanisms essential for sustaining the water system. Overall, rural area is identified as low-resilience zone, highlighting the need for benefit-sharing programs (water- exchange- need based support) similar to those implemented in other cities, such as water benefit-sharing and payment for ecosystem services (PES).

水资源利用效率提高了9%，但水资源紧张和短缺仍然是紧迫的全球挑战。此外，供水系统供需之间前所未有的中断加剧了这一问题。在这种情况下，家庭在与有关当局就管道泄漏、水系统灾难中断等紧急情况进行沟通方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而，如果家庭不愿意分享水或对系统不满意，可能会产生冲突，即使在非危机时期也会导致水资源短缺。虽然弹性水基础设施得到认可，但灾害、抗议、重建和未来水项目潜在劳动力短缺导致的流离失所凸显了了解家庭弹性的重要性。因此，本研究旨在确定哪些家庭指标有助于社区应对灾害并支持水系统，同时评估需求区和供应区目前的家庭状况。使用两种工具收集数据：四组焦点小组讨论和对来自尼泊尔加德满都谷地（城市和近郊）和Melamchi（农村地区）的438名受访者进行的住户调查，这些调查分为八个组。调查结果显示，灾后背景下，PEISE框架下的31项指标（物理、经济、制度、社会和环境）受到影响。此外，一些关键指标，如影响收入的城市水量减少，以及由于洪水导致生产地区劳动力短缺而造成的房屋损坏和流离失所，都说明了灾后流离失所和破坏如何破坏了维持供水系统所必需的当地支持机制。总体而言，农村地区被确定为低恢复力区，强调需要实施与其他城市类似的利益分享计划（水交换-基于需求的支持），如水利益分享和生态系统服务付费（PES）。

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引用次数: 0

Stoichiometric modulation of zooplankton grazing on ocean organic matter biogeochemistry: Results from idealized food web modeling 浮游动物放牧对海洋有机物生物地球化学的化学计量调节：来自理想食物网模型的结果

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111423

Katsumi Matsumoto , Ziyu Guo , Amy E. Maas

Understanding how the ecological stoichiometry of plankton is related to the broader carbon cycle is one of the major questions in ecology and biogeochemistry. However, the role that stoichiometric imbalance between marine phytoplankton and zooplankton play in driving their interaction is not well understood. Here, we use a simple food web model set in idealized, 0- and 1-dimensional model domains in subtropical conditions to study how zooplankton selectivity for a higher food quality prey can shift the plankton community, stoichiometry, and carbon export production. In the model, a single class of zooplankton, whose stoichiometry is close to the Redfield C:N:P ratio, has two prey types: eukaryotic phytoplankton and cyanobacteria. As observed, the cyanobacteria type in the model is a gleaner, has a higher C:N:P ratio, and is thus more nutritionally unbalanced than the eukaryote type. We find that as zooplankton grazing becomes more selective based on food quality, it drives down the eukaryote biomass, allows cyanobacteria to flourish, depletes the ambient nutrient levels, elevates the phytoplankton and organic matter C:N:P ratio, and increases carbon export production. In the 1-dimensional model, these general trends are modulated as the euphotic zone and the mixed layer depths change seasonally. In a novel and important finding, this work indicates that the stoichiometric modulation of grazing can have a direct link to carbon export in the ocean. A more realistic modeling effort, combined with model-data comparison, is needed to confirm this finding.

了解浮游生物的生态化学计量与更广泛的碳循环之间的关系是生态学和生物地球化学的主要问题之一。然而，海洋浮游植物和浮游动物之间的化学计量不平衡在推动它们相互作用中的作用尚未得到很好的理解。在这里，我们使用一个简单的食物网模型，设置在理想的、0和1维的亚热带条件下的模型域，研究浮游动物对更高食物质量猎物的选择性如何改变浮游生物群落、化学计量和碳输出生产。在该模型中，一类浮游动物的化学计量接近Redfield C:N:P比率，它有两种猎物类型：真核浮游植物和蓝藻。观察发现，模型中的蓝藻类型是一个拾取者，具有更高的C:N:P比率，因此比真核生物类型更不平衡。我们发现，随着浮游动物对食物质量的选择性越来越强，它降低了真核生物的生物量，使蓝藻蓬勃发展，消耗了环境营养水平，提高了浮游植物和有机物的C:N:P比率，并增加了碳输出产量。在一维模式中，这些一般趋势随着透光带和混合层深度的季节性变化而被调制。在一个新的和重要的发现中，这项工作表明放牧的化学计量调节可以与海洋中的碳输出直接相关。需要更现实的建模工作，结合模型数据比较，来证实这一发现。

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引用次数: 0

A bi-level game model for dynamic pollutant load allocation integrating pollutant transport processes and stakeholder interaction 考虑污染物运输过程和利益相关者互动的污染物负荷动态分配双层博弈模型

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111425

Rui Zhao, Xuefeng Min, Yang Yu, Wenjie Xu, Shi Yang, Lianghan Zhu, Qin Mou

Basin-wide pollutant load allocation is essential for integrated pollution control, but current approaches often overlook future pollutant discharge, rely on single policy instruments, and neglect multi-stakeholder interactions. To address these limitations, this study proposes a Bi-Level Game Dynamic Allocation Model (BLG-DAM) that synergistically integrates pollutant transport processes, stakeholder interactions, and environmental tax responses. Driven by meteorological data fusion from the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets (CMADS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA5) datasets, the SWAT model achieves high-fidelity simulation of pollutant transport. Incorporating system dynamics enables the bi-level game to capture strategic stakeholder interactions across governance levels while facilitating dynamic information transfer between decision-makers and implementers. Applied to the ecologically sensitive Meishan reach of China’s Minjiang River Basin, which subject to intense urban-rural pollution pressures, the model quantified 2020 annual loads at 7690.25 tons NH₃N, 8759.11 tons TN, and 9387.29 tons TP. Optimization results demonstrate that the proposed BLG-DAM can achieve reductions in NH₃-N, TN, and TP loads by 43.77 %, 32.48 %, and 35.79 %, respectively, by 2025. Under an environmental tax rate of 14 CNY per pollution equivalent, the model is projected to generate a total basin revenue of 2.15 billion CNY, while also increasing cooperation among control units from 25 % to 90 %. These outcomes indicate a successful alignment of economic incentives with water-quality targets, underscoring the model’s utility as a practical and scalable tool for supporting sustainable watershed management.

全流域污染物负荷分配对于综合污染控制至关重要，但目前的方法往往忽视了未来的污染物排放，依赖单一的政策工具，忽视了多方利益相关者的相互作用。为了解决这些限制，本研究提出了一个双级博弈动态分配模型（BLG-DAM），该模型协同整合了污染物运输过程、利益相关者互动和环境税收反应。SWAT模型在中国气象同化驱动数据集（CMADS）和欧洲中期天气预报再分析中心（ERA5）数据集的气象数据融合驱动下，实现了对污染物运移的高保真模拟。结合系统动力学使双层博弈能够在促进决策者和实现者之间动态信息传递的同时，捕获跨治理级别的战略涉众交互。将该模型应用于城乡污染压力较大的岷江流域梅山河段，量化得出2020年NH3N为7690.25 t， TN为8759.11 t， TP为9387.29 t。优化结果表明，到2025年，BLG-DAM可以使NH₃-N、TN和TP的负荷分别减少43.77%、32.48%和35.79%。在每污染当量14元的环境税税率下，该模型预计将产生21.5亿元的流域总收入，同时将控制单位之间的合作从25%提高到90%。这些结果表明经济激励与水质目标的成功结合，强调了该模型作为支持可持续流域管理的实用和可扩展工具的效用。

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引用次数: 0

Reducing parameter uncertainty in kinetic models: A new strategy for experimental design 降低动力学模型参数不确定性：实验设计的新策略

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111424

Konrad Matyja

Mechanistic models can be used to simulate, optimize, and control bioprocesses. The accuracy and reliability of their predictions strongly depend on the uncertainty of model parameters. The quality of estimates is therefore a crucial feature of the model used. There are many methods of experimental design, often based on linear regression and simple statistical reasoning; however, there is a lack of methods dedicated to designing experiments that provide optimal data sets for kinetic model calibration. It appears that parameters-to-data sensitivity coefficients (PSCs) can be used to determine when dependent variables need to be measured to achieve a good model fit. Therefore, in this study, various methods for determining PSCs and evaluating their properties were assessed to propose a new experimental design procedure. The new method enables a reduction in the number of measurements and the uncertainty of estimated parameters. It can be used to reduce the time and costs of experiments.

机械模型可用于模拟、优化和控制生物过程。他们预测的准确性和可靠性在很大程度上取决于模型参数的不确定性。因此，估计的质量是所使用模型的一个关键特征。有许多实验设计方法，通常基于线性回归和简单的统计推理；然而，缺乏专门设计实验的方法，为动力学模型校准提供最佳数据集。似乎参数对数据的敏感性系数（PSCs）可以用来确定何时需要测量因变量以实现良好的模型拟合。因此，在本研究中，评估了各种测定psc和评估其性质的方法，提出了一种新的实验设计程序。新方法可以减少测量次数和估计参数的不确定度。它可以减少实验的时间和成本。

引用次数: 0

A participatory system dynamics approach to assess transboundary nutrient pollution: modelling the water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus in the Lielupe River Basin, Lithuania and Latvia 评估跨界营养物污染的参与性系统动力学方法：立陶宛和拉脱维亚列卢佩河流域的水-能源-食物-生态系统关系建模

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111417

Henry Amorocho-Daza , Janez Sušnik , Jill H. Slinger , Pieter van der Zaag

Managing natural resources in transboundary river basins is a complex task in which societal needs and environmental impact are intertwined. The nexus paradigm engages with such a challenge by analysing synergies and trade-offs across Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) sectors. We present a WEFE nexus operationalisation using a participatory modelling approach in the transboundary Lielupe river basin, shared between Latvia and Lithuania. Using a modelling cycle approach, we illustrate a stakeholder-driven pathway from generic and qualitative to increasingly quantitative system tools useful for basin-scale policy analysis. Stakeholders prioritised agricultural nutrient pollution as a critical nexus issue strongly linked to land-use. Three policy alternatives to address this issue were co-identified with stakeholders from both riparian countries: (i) implementing nature-based solutions; (ii) transitioning to organic agriculture; and (iii) promoting arable land-use transitions to former native landscapes. The long-term effect of such policies is explored using a System Dynamics simulation model. Results highlight the importance of promoting active transboundary cooperation for water quality control, as unilateral action hampers the effect of long-term ambitious policies. Even highly ambitious unilateral action can delay the achievement of river basin quality objectives in the order of a decade, a critical finding for the wider Baltic region and the achievement of EU water quality objectives. Based on an exploratory analysis, we found that implementing basin-scale solutions for nutrient control would reduce nitrogen concentration by around 30 % with a 2 % co-benefit of increasing vegetation stocks, yet at the cost of decreasing cereal production by 8 %. This work illustrates the capabilities of a tailor-made simulation model crafted to answer locally relevant policy questions with a nexus perspective in a transboundary river basin. Developing and using a simulation model in a participatory way can explore policy futures while fostering dialogue among riparian stakeholders. This is a promising way to promote cooperation towards solving critical socio-environmental issues in transboundary rivers.

管理跨界河流流域的自然资源是一项复杂的任务，其中社会需求和环境影响交织在一起。nexus范例通过分析水-能源-食物-生态系统（WEFE）部门之间的协同作用和权衡来应对这一挑战。我们在拉脱维亚和立陶宛共享的跨界列卢佩河流域采用参与式建模方法提出了WEFE联系运作。使用建模周期方法，我们说明了利益相关者驱动的途径，从通用和定性到越来越多的定量系统工具，这些工具对流域规模的政策分析很有用。利益相关者优先考虑农业养分污染，将其作为与土地利用密切相关的关键关系问题。与两个沿岸国的利益攸关方共同确定了解决这一问题的三个政策选择方案：(i)实施基于自然的解决方案；（ii）向有机农业过渡；（三）促进耕地利用向原原生景观过渡。利用系统动力学仿真模型探讨了这些政策的长期影响。结果强调了在水质控制方面促进积极的跨界合作的重要性，因为单方面行动会阻碍长期雄心勃勃的政策的效果。即使是雄心勃勃的单方面行动也可能将实现流域质量目标的时间推迟十年，这是对更广泛的波罗的海地区和实现欧盟水质目标的关键发现。基于一项探索性分析，我们发现，实施流域尺度的养分控制方案将使氮浓度降低约30%，同时增加植被储量的共同效益为2%，但代价是谷物产量减少8%。这项工作说明了一个量身定制的模拟模型的能力，该模型旨在以跨界河流流域的联系视角回答当地相关的政策问题。以参与式的方式开发和使用模拟模型可以探索政策的未来，同时促进河岸利益攸关方之间的对话。这是促进合作解决跨界河流关键社会环境问题的一个有希望的途径。

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引用次数: 0

Multi-agent simulation for dengue spread forecast: A case study for two Brazilian cities 登革热传播预测的多agent模拟：两个巴西城市的案例研究

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111428

Carlos Victor Dantas Araújo , Fábio Luiz Usberti , Emily Brito de Oliveira , Laura Silva de Assis , Celso Cavellucci

This study introduces a multi-agent-based simulation (MABS) methodology for modeling the transmission spread of the dengue virus. The proposed methodology provides a flexible and adaptable approach to simulate the spread of dengue, accounting for the complex interactions between human populations, mosquitoes, and the environment. By leveraging agent-based modeling techniques, we can capture the stochastic nature of disease transmission and explore the impact of various factors, such as human behavior and vector control interventions. The model’s ability to generate realistic scenarios, even in the face of limited data, makes it a valuable tool for understanding the epidemiology of dengue and informing public health strategies, thus, this approach can also serve as a visualization and decision-support tool. The effectiveness of the proposed MABS framework is validated through its application to the cities of Alto Santo and Limoeiro, Brazil. However, it is easy to adapt to other cities using basic geographic information and historical data to determine optimal parameters.

本研究介绍了一种基于多主体的模拟（MABS）方法，用于模拟登革热病毒的传播传播。提出的方法提供了一种灵活和适应性强的方法来模拟登革热的传播，考虑到人群、蚊子和环境之间复杂的相互作用。通过利用基于主体的建模技术，我们可以捕捉疾病传播的随机性，并探索各种因素的影响，如人类行为和媒介控制干预措施。即使在数据有限的情况下，该模型也能够生成现实情景，这使其成为了解登革热流行病学和告知公共卫生战略的宝贵工具，因此，该方法也可以作为可视化和决策支持工具。通过在巴西Alto Santo和Limoeiro城市的应用，验证了拟议的MABS框架的有效性。然而，利用基本的地理信息和历史数据来确定最优参数，很容易适应其他城市。

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引用次数: 0