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Increase in young forests, more than climate change may accelerate future colonization of temperate tree species in mixedwood boreal stands 幼林的增加可能比气候变化更能加速温带树种未来在北方混交林中的定殖
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110892
Maxence Soubeyrand , Fabio Gennaretti , Marie-Hélène Brice , Pierre Grondin , Yves Bergeron , Philippe Marchand
Temperate hardwood tree species may take advantage of climate change to migrate northward tracking their optimal growth and survival niches. Other factors than climate could constrain or facilitate their establishment north of their actual range, such as competitive interactions, their ability to disperse, and forest management. The objectives of this study were to model the ability of temperate tree species to colonize boreal mixedwood stands of Eastern Canada from a few temperate tree seeders, considering the effects of climate change, competitive interactions, and specific successional stages of the receiving stands. We used the individual based forest model SORTIE-ND with adult growth forced by four different projected climate change scenarios. To mimic the natural colonization of temperate trees from marginal populations eventually established by long-distance migration, we replaced a patch in the center of the simulated stands with temperate tree species, i.e., red maple, sugar maple or yellow birch. We then performed a sensitivity analysis on the parameters determining the growth, dispersal, and mortality of temperate tree species to determine which of these processes was critical to their expansion. All three temperate tree species were able to colonize the boreal stands with higher performance in younger stands, and greater colonization skills for yellow birch. At the 2100 horizon, the impact of the climate scenarios on the final basal area of temperate tree species was minor. Processes mostly driven by competition and species auto-ecology, including dispersion, mortality, and juvenile growth parameters, were the most important for the colonization capacity. Our results suggest that the expansion of temperate tree species from already established northern marginal populations would be minimally affected by climate change, and that forest management could have a more significant impact by rejuvenating boreal mixedwood landscapes.
温带硬木树种可能会利用气候变化向北迁移,追踪其最佳生长和生存环境。除气候因素外,其他因素也可能制约或促进它们在实际分布区以北的建立,如竞争性相互作用、它们的分散能力和森林管理。本研究的目的是模拟温带树种从少数温带树种播种者处移入加拿大东部北方杂木林的能力,同时考虑气候变化、竞争相互作用和接收林分特定演替阶段的影响。我们使用了基于个体的森林模型 SORTIE-ND,其成林生长受四种不同的预测气候变化情景的影响。为了模拟温带树种通过长途迁徙最终从边缘种群建立的自然殖民地,我们在模拟林分的中心用温带树种(即红枫、糖枫或黄桦)替换了一块区域。然后,我们对决定温带树种的生长、扩散和死亡率的参数进行了敏感性分析,以确定哪一个过程对它们的扩展至关重要。所有三种温带树种都能在北方林分中定居,在较年轻的林分中表现较好,而黄桦的定居能力更强。在 2100 年地平线上,气候情景对温带树种最终基底面积的影响很小。主要由竞争和物种自生态驱动的过程,包括分散、死亡率和幼树生长参数,对殖民能力最为重要。我们的研究结果表明,温带树种从已经建立的北方边缘种群向外扩展受气候变化的影响很小,而森林管理可以通过恢复北方混交林景观产生更重要的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Models vetted against prediction error and parameter sensitivity standards can credibly evaluate ecosystem management options 根据预测误差和参数敏感性标准对模型进行审查,可对生态系统管理方案进行可信的评估
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110900
Timothy C. Haas
A new standard for assessing model credibility is developed. This standard consists of parameter estimation, prediction error assessment, and a parameter sensitivity analysis that is driven by outside individuals who are skeptical of the model’s credibility (hereafter, skeptics). Ecological/environmental models that have a one-step-ahead prediction error rate that is better than naive forecasting — and are not excessively sensitive to small changes in their parameter values are said here to be vetted. A procedure is described that can perform this assessment on any model being evaluated for possible participation in an ecosystem management decision. Uncertainty surrounding the model’s ability to predict future values of its output variables and in the estimates of all of its parameters should be part of any effort to vett a model. The vetting procedure described herein, Prediction Error Rate-Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis (PER-DSA), incorporates these two aspects of model uncertainty. DSA in particular, requires participation by skeptics and is the reason why a successful DSA gives a model sufficient credibility to have a voice in ecosystem management decision making. But these models need to be stochastic and represent the mechanistic processes of the system being modeled. For such models, performing a PER-DSA can be computationally expensive. A cluster computing algorithm to speed-up these computations is described as one way to answer this challenge. This new standard is illustrated through a PER-DSA of a population dynamics model of South African rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum simum).
制定了评估模型可信度的新标准。该标准包括参数估计、预测误差评估和参数敏感性分析,由对模型可信度持怀疑态度的外部人员(以下简称怀疑者)驱动。如果生态/环境模型的一步预测误差率优于天真预测,并且对其参数值的微小变化不过分敏感,就可以说该模型通过了审核。本文介绍了一种程序,该程序可对任何可能参与生态系统管理决策的模型进行评估。模型预测其输出变量未来值的能力及其所有参数估算值的不确定性,应该是任何审核模型工作的一部分。本文所述的审核程序,即预测误差率-确定性敏感性分析(PER-DSA),包含了模型不确定性的这两个方面。DSA 尤其需要怀疑论者的参与,这也是成功的 DSA 能使模型在生态系统管理决策中拥有足够可信度的原因。但是,这些模型必须是随机的,并代表所建模系统的机理过程。对于此类模型,执行 PER-DSA 的计算成本可能很高。本文介绍了一种加快计算速度的集群计算算法,作为应对这一挑战的方法之一。通过对南非犀牛(Ceratotherium simum simum)种群动力学模型的 PER-DSA 验证了这一新标准。
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引用次数: 0
An individual-based model for exploration of population and stock dynamics in marine fishes 基于个体的海洋鱼类种群动态探索模型
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110842
C.B. Woodson , S.Y. Litvin , J.R. Schramski , S.B. Joye
Many size- or age-structure fisheries models require estimation of fundamental population level parameters such as growth, mortality, and recruitment rates that are notoriously difficult to estimate and can constrain the ability of models for exploring emergent properties in population dynamics. To address some of these issues, we develop a discrete-time individual-based model that integrates both age- and size-based concepts. Individual fish are tracked throughout their lifetime allowing for assessment of age-based concepts, with traits determined by size. This method utilizes individual growth parameters as opposed to population level growth rates and allows for many properties of populations that are normally prescribed to be emergent properties of the model. We demonstrate the utility of the model for reproducing population level parameters such as slope at origin for recruitment curves and intrinsic growth rates. The addition of spatial dynamics where a population is sub-divided into discrete stocks further allows for the assessment of various conservation techniques such as marine protected areas, fishing area rotation, and size limits at the individual level.
许多大小或年龄结构渔业模型需要估计基本种群水平参数,如生长率、死亡率和招募率,这些参数很难估计,而且会限制模型探索种群动态中新出现的特性的能力。为了解决其中一些问题,我们开发了一种基于个体的离散时间模型,该模型整合了基于年龄和大小的概念。对鱼类个体进行终生跟踪,可以评估基于年龄的概念,而特征则由体型决定。这种方法利用的是个体生长参数,而不是种群水平的生长率,并允许将种群的许多特性通常规定为模型的新兴特性。我们展示了该模型在再现种群水平参数(如招募曲线的原点斜率和内在增长率)方面的实用性。在种群被细分为离散种群的情况下,增加空间动态参数可进一步评估各种保护技术,如海洋保护区、渔区轮换和个体大小限制。
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引用次数: 0
Building ecosystem services-based ecological networks in energy and chemical industry areas 在能源和化学工业领域建立基于生态系统服务的生态网络
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110897
Huanhuan Pan , Ziqiang Du , Zhitao Wu , Hong Zhang , Keming Ma
The massive utilization of fossil energy by humans has promoted socio-economic development. However, it has also generated severe regional eco-environmental problems, including water shortage, soil erosion, and land desertification. An optimal ecological-network-based regulation of eco-environmentally damaged areas is necessary to balance economic development with rigid eco-environmental constraints in pursuit of sustainable regional development. Using remote-sensing, meteorology, land use, and soil data of energy and chemical industrial areas in the mid-upper reaches of the Yellow River, we quantitatively evaluated the related ecosystem services (ESs) by applying InVEST, CASA, and RWEQ models. Additionally, we constructed ecological conservation networks comprising ecological source areas, resistance surface, corridors, and nodes. The results are as follows. First, from 2000 to 2020, the areas of cultivated and unused land decreased, but those of forest, grassland, water bodies, and construction land increased. Regarding spatial distribution, the proportion of grassland was the highest, followed by unused land, and other types of land accounting for a relatively low proportion. Second, from 2000 to 2020, all ESs and the overall ecosystem improved. However, ESs demonstrated a clear spatial heterogeneity (i.e., better in the southeast than in the northwest). Third, comparing the two ecological networks constructed by minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) and circuit models, the MCR-based ecological network was considered better because of its higher ε, θ, and σ values. Robustness analysis also showed that the MCR-based ecological network was more stable. Finally, ecological source areas of 110,300 km2 were obtained, accounting for 21.69 % of the study region. Ecological resistance was relatively high in desert areas, which are to the northwest of the study region, and relatively low in the southeast. Fifty-nine ecological corridors (including 31 important ones) and 22 ecological nodes were extracted. The finalized ecological network was diamond-shaped, with the ecological source areas in four directions (i.e., east, south, west, and north) of the study region being closely connected. To promote the spatial optimization of the study region, appropriate measures (e.g., afforestation and soil improvement) must be taken to reduce regional imbalance in ecological condition, improve ecosystem functions and landscape connectivity, reduce various resistance, and ultimately promote conservation outcomes.
人类对化石能源的大量利用促进了社会经济的发展。但同时也产生了严重的区域生态环境问题,包括水资源短缺、水土流失、土地荒漠化等。为了平衡经济发展与生态环境的刚性约束,实现区域的可持续发展,必须对生态环境受损区域进行基于生态网络的优化调控。我们利用黄河中上游能源化工区的遥感、气象、土地利用和土壤数据,应用 InVEST、CASA 和 RWEQ 模型对相关生态系统服务(ES)进行了定量评估。此外,我们还构建了由生态源区、阻力面、廊道和节点组成的生态保护网络。研究结果如下。首先,从 2000 年到 2020 年,耕地和未利用地面积减少,但森林、草地、水体和建设用地面积增加。在空间分布上,草地所占比例最高,其次是未利用地,其他类型土地所占比例相对较低。其次,从 2000 年到 2020 年,所有生态系统服务要素和整体生态系统都有所改善。然而,ESs 表现出明显的空间异质性(即东南部好于西北部)。第三,比较最小累积阻力(MCR)模型和回路模型构建的两种生态网络,基于 MCR 的生态网络因其较高的ε、θ 和 σ 值而被认为更好。稳健性分析也表明,基于 MCR 的生态网络更加稳定。最后得到的生态源面积为 110,300 平方公里,占研究区域面积的 21.69%。研究区域西北部的沙漠地区生态阻力相对较大,而东南部则相对较小。提取了 59 条生态廊道(包括 31 条重要廊道)和 22 个生态节点。最终确定的生态网络呈菱形,研究区域东、南、西、北四个方向的生态源区紧密相连。为促进研究区域的空间优化,必须采取适当的措施(如植树造林和土壤改良),以减少区域生态状况的失衡,提高生态系统功能和景观连通性,减少各种阻力,最终促进保护成果。
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引用次数: 0
Model-based experiments as epistemic evidence in paleoecology 将基于模型的实验作为古生态学的认识论证据
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110895
Wolfgang Traylor
Where ordinary experiments are impossible and observational data scarce and indirect  particularly in paleoecosystems  computational experiments are often our only means to learn about reality. There are good arguments to count such model-based predictions as evidence, testing hypotheses and updating our beliefs about the world. However, the epistemic weight of computational experiments depends on an adequate model representation of the target system, transparency about predictive uncertainty, and the avoidance of confirmation bias. I argue that mechanistic models are particularly suited for paleoecological predictions but that iterative uncertainty analyses should guide their development. Using a Bayesian framework I propose preregistration and blinded analysis as tools to strengthen the epistemic value of computational experiments. Here, a preregistration marks the boundary between exploratory model development, which establishes credence in the model, and predictive model application, which tests hypotheses. As good modeling practice I suggest clarifying epistemic goals at the outset of a project and accordingly choose methods to maximize the epistemic weight of the computational experiment.
在不可能进行普通实验、观测数据稀缺且间接的地方(尤其是在古生态系统中),计算实验往往是我们了解现实的唯一途径。我们有充分的理由将这些基于模型的预测视为证据,以检验假设并更新我们对世界的信念。然而,计算实验在认识论上的权重取决于目标系统的充分模型表征、预测不确定性的透明度以及确认偏见的避免。我认为,机理模型尤其适合古生态预测,但应通过迭代不确定性分析来指导模型的开发。利用贝叶斯框架,我建议将预注册和盲分析作为加强计算实验认识价值的工具。在这里,预注册标志着探索性模型开发与预测性模型应用之间的界限,前者确立了模型的可信度,后者则检验了假设。作为良好的建模实践,我建议在项目一开始就明确认识论目标,并据此选择方法,最大限度地提高计算实验的认识论权重。
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引用次数: 0
A coupled machine-learning-individual-based model for migration dynamics simulation: A case study of migratory fish in fish passage facilities 基于机器学习和个体的洄游动态模拟耦合模型:鱼类通道设施中的洄游鱼类案例研究
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110899
Jingyang Wang , Baiyin baoligao , Xiangpeng Mu , Zhihong Qie , Guangning Li
The extensive development of hydropower projects has notably changed the ecohydrological conditions of fish habitats, affecting fish behavior, including habitat usage and migration, to varying extents. Understanding fish migration dynamics is essential for quantitatively assessing the impact of ecological restoration measures on migratory fish. However, no model has yet demonstrated sufficient accuracy to be considered valuable in ecological restoration engineering. To address this issue, in this article, a coupled machine-learning-individual-based model (ML-IBM) consisting of random forest (RF) and Eulerian–Lagrangian–agent method (ELAM) is constructed for predicting fish migration, aiming to find effective fish passage solutions before implementation. In this study, the passage data of ya-fish (Schizothorax prenanti) in vertical slot fishways (VSFs) is compiled to train ML-IBM to simulate fish migration in fish passage facilities. In movement prediction, the accuracy of swimming behavior classification reaches 83.4 %, and the R² for swimming speed regression exceeds 0.77. Compared with other state-of-the-art migration dynamic models, the proposed ML-IBM achieves the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.35 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 6.26 in migration simulation results. Further, RF is used to quantitatively calculate the importance of input features. The contributions of each feature are analyzed and discussed from a hydrodynamic perspective, with the importance ranked as follows: flow velocity (FV) > turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) > total hydraulic strain (THS). This approach enhances the interpretability of the model and provides further insights into the mechanism of fish migration. The results presented in this study have significant implications for informing decision-making in the management of living resources and guiding engineering design processes.
水电工程的广泛开发明显改变了鱼类栖息地的生态水文条件,在不同程度上影响了鱼类的行为,包括栖息地的利用和洄游。了解鱼类洄游动态对于定量评估生态恢复措施对洄游鱼类的影响至关重要。然而,目前还没有任何模型能证明其准确性足以在生态修复工程中发挥重要作用。为了解决这个问题,本文构建了一个由随机森林(RF)和欧拉-拉格朗日-代理方法(ELAM)组成的机器学习-基于个体的耦合模型(ML-IBM),用于预测鱼类洄游,目的是在实施前找到有效的鱼类通道解决方案。本研究汇编了雅鱼(Schizothorax prenanti)在垂直缝隙鱼道(VSF)中的通过数据,以训练 ML-IBM 模拟鱼类在鱼道设施中的洄游。在运动预测方面,游泳行为分类的准确率达到 83.4%,游泳速度回归的 R² 超过 0.77。与其他最先进的洄游动态模型相比,所提出的 ML-IBM 在洄游模拟结果中实现了最低的均方根误差(RMSE)(7.35)和平均绝对误差(MAE)(6.26)。此外,RF 被用于定量计算输入特征的重要性。从流体力学角度分析和讨论了每个特征的贡献,其重要性排序如下:流速(FV)>;湍流动能(TKE)>;总水力应变(THS)。这种方法增强了模型的可解释性,并进一步揭示了鱼类洄游的机理。本研究的结果对生物资源管理决策和指导工程设计过程具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Snow runoff modelling in the upper Indus River Basin and its implication to energy water food nexus 印度河上游流域的雪水径流模型及其对能源水粮食关系的影响
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110871
Hazrat Bilal , Chamhuri Siwar , Mazlin Bin Mokhtar , Fatima-Zahra Lahlou , Kasturi Devi Kanniah , Tareq Al-Ansari
Pakistan's hydropower sector depends heavily on glacier and snowmelt water that originates from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is expected that climate change may adversely affect future hydropower generation capacity as a result of fluctuations in the magnitude, seasonality and hydrological extremes of the Indus River flow. This study employed the Degree-Day Snowmelt Runoff Model alongside the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MODIS and daily ground-based hydro-meteorological data to model the snowmelt runoff response in the UIB. The results indicated a significant increase in the annual and seasonal runoff under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting more water availability for hydropower and irrigation. By the end of the century, annual river flow is projected to increase by 28 % to 69 % under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Consequently, rise in annual river flow is expected to increase the electricity generation capacity of future hydropower projects by 93 % to 167 % under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The construction of robust multipurpose dams may potentially reduce flood risks in downstream areas during peak flows, while also supplying water for hydropower generation and irrigation during low flows. This, in turn, may enhance the resilience of both the hydropower and agriculture sectors in the face of climate change.
巴基斯坦的水电行业在很大程度上依赖于源自上印度河流域(UIB)的冰川水和融雪水。由于印度河流量的大小、季节性和极端水文情况的波动,预计气候变化可能会对未来的水力发电能力产生不利影响。这项研究利用度日融雪径流模型、中分辨率成像分光仪 MODIS 和每日地面水文气象数据,对 UIB 的融雪径流响应进行建模。结果表明,在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 两种情景下,年径流量和季节径流量都有显著增加,这表明有更多的水可用于水力发电和灌溉。到本世纪末,在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 气候情景下,河流年径流量预计将增加 28% 至 69%。因此,在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下,河流年流量的增加预计将使未来水电项目的发电能力分别提高 93% 到 167%。建造坚固的多用途大坝有可能降低下游地区在洪峰流量期间的洪水风险,同时还能在低流量期间为水力发电和灌溉供水。这反过来又可增强水电和农业部门在气候变化面前的复原力。
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引用次数: 0
Habitat availability decline for waterbirds in a sensitive wetland: Climate change impact on the Ebro Delta 敏感湿地水鸟栖息地可用性下降:气候变化对埃布罗河三角洲的影响
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110896
Andrés De la Cruz , Catherine Numa
The highly biodiverse, productive and vulnerable areas, such as coastal wetlands, are increasingly threatened by human-induced disturbances, resulting in habitat loss. This habitat loss is a critical driver of biodiversity decline and significantly impacts species distribution and behavior, increasing the risk of extinctions. To address these concerns, we developed a Species Distribution Model (SDM) using a decade-long dataset of waterbird functional group occurrences in the Ebro Delta, with a particular focus on the Ardeidae family, which represents the most prominent species in the wetland. This model aims to predict potential habitat loss under various climate change scenarios, specifically those outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, across three distinct time periods.
Our SDM revealed that habitat suitability for waterbirds was notably influenced by temperature variations, increased cumulative precipitation, and lower terrain elevation. Predictions indicate an increase in available habitat for these waterbird species over the study periods considering the specified climate scenarios. However, the incorporation of sea-level rise and flooded areas into the models unveiled a dramatic decline in available areas for waterbirds in the long-term, reaching up to 50 % (RCP 4.5) and 70 % (RCP 8.5) reduction.
Our study highlights the urgent need for conservation efforts to mitigate the substantial reduction in available habitat for waterbirds. This need is especially crucial due to the Ebro Delta's importance as a vital coastal wetland for many thousands of waterbirds throughout their entire life cycle. Immediate and targeted conservation actions are imperative to safeguard the essential habitats for these species.
沿海湿地等生物多样性丰富、生产力高且脆弱的地区正日益受到人为干扰的威胁,导致栖息地丧失。栖息地的丧失是生物多样性衰退的重要驱动因素,严重影响了物种的分布和行为,增加了物种灭绝的风险。为了解决这些问题,我们利用埃布罗河三角洲长达十年的水鸟功能群出现数据集开发了一个物种分布模型(SDM),其中特别关注了代表该湿地最主要物种的杓鹬科。该模型旨在预测各种气候变化情景下潜在的栖息地损失,特别是政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)代表性浓度途径(RCP)4.5 和 8.5 中概述的情景,并跨越三个不同的时间段。我们的 SDM 表明,水鸟的栖息地适宜性受到温度变化、累积降水量增加和地形海拔降低的显著影响。预测表明,考虑到特定的气候情景,这些水鸟物种的可用栖息地在研究期间有所增加。然而,将海平面上升和洪涝地区纳入模型后,水鸟的可用栖息地面积在长期内将急剧下降,降幅高达 50%(RCP 4.5)和 70%(RCP 8.5)。由于埃布罗河三角洲是成千上万只水鸟整个生命周期的重要沿海湿地,因此这一需求尤为迫切。必须立即采取有针对性的保护行动,以保护这些物种的重要栖息地。
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引用次数: 0
Attributing hypoxia responses of early life Menidia menidia to energetic mechanisms with Dynamic Energy Budget theory 用动态能量预算理论将早期生活的月牙藻的缺氧反应归因于能量机制
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110889
Teresa G. Schwemmer , Roger M. Nisbet , Janet A. Nye
Ocean deoxygenation is intensifying worldwide due to warming and eutrophication, particularly in estuaries and coastal waters. Although the Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia) is tolerant of the fluctuating environmental conditions in its estuarine habitat, chronic hypoxia impairs hatching, growth, and survival in the early life stages. We used a simplified version of a Dynamic Energy Budget model (DEBkiss) to test the hypothesis that experimentally observed changes in animal performance can be explained by one or more of the rate processes in the model. We sought to identify the DEBkiss parameters that, when adjusted with a correction factor based on inhibition of Synthesizing Units, provided the best fit to hypoxia effects in the three state variables of total length, egg buffer mass, and survival over time. Because hypoxia reduces survival in embryos and newly hatched larvae, we added a survival state variable controlled by pre- and post-hatching mortality parameters. Applying the hypoxia effects to reduce the conversion efficiency of assimilates to structure accounted for some of the hypoxia-related changes in all three state variables. However, the best fit was achieved by simultaneously reducing the conversion efficiency and increasing both mortality parameters. In contrast, changing the parameter for maintenance rate with hypoxia provided little to no improvement of fit to the data. Reduced conversion efficiency under hypoxia would suggest that less of the energy invested by parents and consumed through predation is converted into biomass in M. menidia offspring, with implications for size at age that could threaten recruitment and alter the flow of energy through the food web.
由于气候变暖和富营养化,全球海洋脱氧现象正在加剧,尤其是在河口和沿海水域。虽然大西洋银鱼(Menidia menidia)对其河口栖息地波动的环境条件有很强的耐受性,但长期缺氧会影响其生命早期阶段的孵化、生长和存活。我们使用一个简化版的动态能量预算模型(DEBkiss)来检验一个假设,即实验观察到的动物表现变化可以用模型中的一个或多个速率过程来解释。我们试图确定 DEBkiss 参数,当使用基于合成单位抑制的校正因子进行调整时,这些参数能最好地拟合总长度、卵缓冲质量和存活率这三个状态变量随时间变化的缺氧效应。由于缺氧会降低胚胎和刚孵化幼虫的存活率,我们增加了一个由孵化前和孵化后死亡率参数控制的存活率状态变量。利用缺氧效应降低同化物向结构的转化效率,可以解释所有三个状态变量中与缺氧有关的部分变化。然而,同时降低转化效率和提高两个死亡率参数的拟合效果最好。相反,在缺氧条件下改变维持率参数对数据的拟合效果几乎没有改善。缺氧条件下转化效率的降低表明,亲本投入的能量和捕食消耗的能量转化为M. menidia后代生物量的数量减少,这对其年龄大小有影响,可能会威胁到新成员的招募,并改变食物网中的能量流。
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引用次数: 0
How much is enough? Optimizing beehive stocking densities to maximize the production of a pollinator-dependent crop 多少才足够?优化蜂箱饲养密度,使依赖授粉者的作物产量最大化
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110891
Andrés F. Ramírez-Mejía , Natacha P. Chacoff , Pablo Cavigliasso , Pedro G. Blendinger
Animal pollination is essential to guarantee the economic viability of pollination-dependent crops, and honeybees (Apis mellifera L.) play a central role as the most used species worldwide for pollination service management. Despite its importance, recommendations on honeybee hive stocking density are based on rules of thumb that assume hives as standardized units and do not consider the contingencies of the crop's pollen deposition demand. We developed a mechanistic simulation model to assess the consequences of variant hive quality and stocking density scenarios for blueberry productivity per hectare. To do so, we used Bayesian models, field experiments and secondary information to parametrize the simulation and estimate flower visitation rate, pollen deposition, and fruit production at the crop level. We found that maximizing pollen deposition at the crop level can be achieved with seven high quality-hives ha−1 (20000 bees colony−1), whereas reaching similar levels of pollination with conventional hives (10000 bees colony−1) would require 20 hives ha−1. Also, optimal hive stocking densities to maximize blueberry yield ha−1 needs four high quality-hives ha−1, whilst similar levels of productivity could be reached with 20 conventional colonies ha−1. From an economic and productive perspective, a lower unit rental price for conventional hives compensates for the use of less, but more expensive, high quality hives. Therefore, deciding using either low or high-quality hives should be based on, for instance, the logistic implications of using ∼2.5 more hives ha−1 and the consequences of using colonies with a poorer sanitation state for pollination service stability. Our work set the basis for a more biological and evidence-based protocol for honeybee hive management in blueberry crops. Indeed, integrating honeybee and blueberry pollination ecology, we provide a pragmatic approach to maximize crop productivity based on the minimum beehive stocking densities that optimize pollen deposition and crop yield ha−1 depending on hive's quality. Knowing such a minimum allows for reduced operation costs for farmers, lower uncertainty of pollinators contribution to crop productivity and the risk of undesirable pollination scenarios, and helps to limit the potential negative impacts of saturating ecosystems with honeybees.
动物授粉对于保证依赖授粉作物的经济可行性至关重要,而蜜蜂(Apis mellifera L.)作为全球授粉服务管理中使用最多的物种,发挥着核心作用。尽管蜜蜂的重要性不言而喻,但有关蜜蜂蜂箱饲养密度的建议都是基于经验法则,即假定蜂箱为标准化单位,而不考虑作物花粉沉积需求的意外情况。我们开发了一个机械模拟模型,以评估不同蜂箱质量和饲养密度方案对蓝莓每公顷产量的影响。为此,我们使用贝叶斯模型、田间试验和二手信息对模拟进行参数化,并在作物层面估算探花率、花粉沉积量和果实产量。我们发现,每公顷 7 个优质蜂箱(20000 个蜂群-1)就能实现作物花粉沉积的最大化,而使用传统蜂箱(10000 个蜂群-1)则需要每公顷 20 个蜂箱才能达到类似的授粉水平。此外,要使蓝莓产量最大化(公顷-1),最佳的蜂箱饲养密度需要 4 个优质蜂箱(公顷-1),而 20 个传统蜂箱(公顷-1)就能达到类似的生产率水平。从经济和生产的角度来看,传统蜂箱较低的单位租赁价格可以补偿较少但较昂贵的优质蜂箱的使用。因此,在决定使用低质量蜂箱还是高质量蜂箱时,应考虑多使用 2.5 个蜂箱(每公顷)的后勤影响,以及使用卫生状况较差的蜂群对授粉服务稳定性的影响。我们的工作为蓝莓作物中蜜蜂蜂箱管理的生物和实证方案奠定了基础。事实上,结合蜜蜂和蓝莓授粉生态学,我们提供了一种务实的方法,根据蜂巢质量优化花粉沉积和作物产量(公顷-1)的最低蜂群密度,最大限度地提高作物产量。了解这样一个最小值可以降低农民的经营成本,降低授粉者对作物产量贡献的不确定性和不良授粉情况的风险,并有助于限制蜜蜂饱和生态系统可能带来的负面影响。
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Ecological Modelling
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