Ecological Modelling最新文献_第5页

Evaluating rabbitfish restocking potential in support of Guam’s coastal fisheries 评估重新放养兔鱼以支持关岛沿海渔业的潜力

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111460

Anne A. Innes-Gold , Peter Houk , Tye L. Kindinger , Brett M. Taylor , Austin Humphries

Aquaculture-based fisheries enhancement (i.e., restocking) involves releasing hatchery-reared fish into the wild to support depleted populations and sustain fisheries. However, the benefits of these activities can be difficult to detect. We created a theoretical model to evaluate the potential benefits of restocking initiatives for a prominent forktail rabbitfish (Siganus argenteus) fishery in Guam. Forktail rabbitfish have three distinct life stages making them ideal for a discrete stage-structured modeling approach: mañahak (recruits), dagge (juveniles), and hiteng kahlao (adults). We modelled restocking scenarios whereby mañahak were harvested for grow-out and subsequently reintroduced into the population as dagge, thereby reinforcing the life stage transition with the lowest natural survival probability. We found that restocking had variable impacts on the population structure and resilience that were dependent on the intensity of exploitation. Under full exploitation, restocking improved resilience by shifting the most sensitive life-stage transition from mañahak-to-dagge to dagge-to-hiteng kahlao. Only under low-to-intermediate fishing could restocking reverse the population trajectory from a declining trend to a growing one. Restocking 2–10 % of the unfished biomass (B₀) allowed the population to sustain 12–25 % higher yields while still maintaining the 50 % B₀ benchmark. Overall, fishing and natural reproduction were consistently the strongest determinants of population structures, transitions, and trajectories; however, restocking augmented population resilience and improved fisheries yields. This study demonstrates the potential viability of restocking in combination with fishing regulations to enhance fisheries yield in a culturally important fishery.

以水产养殖为基础的渔业增强（即重新放养）涉及将孵化场饲养的鱼类放归野外，以支持枯竭的种群和维持渔业。然而，这些活动的好处很难察觉。我们创建了一个理论模型来评估关岛一个著名的叉尾兔鱼（Siganus argenteus）渔业重新放养计划的潜在效益。叉尾兔鱼有三个不同的生命阶段，这使它们成为离散阶段结构建模方法的理想选择：mañahak（新生）、dagge（幼年）和hiteng kahlao（成年）。我们模拟了重新放养的情景，即mañahak被收获用于生长，随后作为dagge重新引入种群，从而以最低的自然生存概率加强生命阶段的过渡。我们发现，重新放养对种群结构和恢复力的影响是可变的，这取决于开发的强度。在充分开发利用的情况下，通过将最敏感的生命阶段从mañahak-to-dagge过渡到匕首到hiteng kahlao，重新放养提高了复原力。只有在低至中等捕捞水平下，重新放养才能使种群从下降趋势逆转到增长趋势。重新放养2 - 10%的未捕捞生物量（B0）可以使种群维持12 - 25%的高产量，同时仍然保持50%的B0基准。总体而言，捕鱼和自然繁殖始终是种群结构、过渡和轨迹的最强决定因素；然而，重新放养增强了种群的抵御能力，提高了渔业产量。这项研究表明，在一个具有重要文化意义的渔业中，再放养与渔业法规相结合，提高渔业产量的潜在可行性。

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引用次数: 0

Process-based modeling and prediction of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms of long-range dependence on environmental conditions 长期依赖环境条件的蓝藻有害藻华过程建模与预测

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111466

Sayed Omar Hofioni , Zhiqiang Deng , Sibel Bargu , Courtney Nicole Hammond

Harmful algal blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria (CyanoHABs) increasingly threaten ecosystems, water supplies, and public health. Yet, most CyanoHAB modeling tools ignore the influence of antecedent environmental conditions on CyanoHABs. This paper couples a high-resolution hydrodynamic model of Lake Pontchartrain Estuary with a finite-element-based advection–dispersion–reaction module that embeds time-lagged effects of temperature, salinity, light, and nutrients on CyanoHABs, highlighting the key novelty of this work. Forced by satellite and in-situ observations, the coupled CyanoHAB modeling system reproduced the 2021 basin-wide CyanoHAB bloom including its abrupt collapse following Hurricane Ida, demonstrating the robustness of the coupled CyanoHAB modeling system. It was discovered that favorable antecedent environmental conditions over one to four weeks govern the growth and abundance of CyanoHABs, indicating the long-range dependence of CyanoHABs on antecedent environmental conditions. It was also discovered that extreme mixing events can rapidly suppress the biomass of CyanoHABs. The incorporation of antecedent environmental conditions and the mixing effect into process-based models markedly improves the forecasting skill and offers a robust foundation for early-warning systems as climate change intensifies CyanoHAB episodes.

产生毒素的有害藻华蓝藻（CyanoHABs）日益威胁生态系统，水供应和公众健康。然而，大多数蓝藻华建模工具忽略了环境条件对蓝藻华的影响。本文将一个高分辨率的Pontchartrain湖河口水动力模型与一个基于有限元的平流-分散-反应模块相结合，该模块嵌入了温度、盐度、光和营养物质对蓝藻藻的时滞效应，突出了这项工作的关键新颖性。在卫星和原位观测的强迫下，耦合CyanoHAB模拟系统再现了2021年全流域的CyanoHAB水华，包括飓风Ida后的突然崩塌，证明了耦合CyanoHAB模拟系统的鲁棒性。研究发现，1 ~ 4周的有利环境条件支配着蓝藻藻的生长和丰度，表明了蓝藻藻对环境条件的长期依赖。研究还发现，极端混合事件可以迅速抑制蓝藻藻的生物量。将前环境条件和混合效应纳入基于过程的模式显著提高了预报能力，为气候变化加剧蓝藻藻华事件的预警系统提供了坚实的基础。

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引用次数: 0

Simulating global forest NEP by integrating TL-LUE model with deep learning 基于TL-LUE模型和深度学习的全球森林NEP模拟

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111469

Qinghong Sheng , Haowei Zhang , Yu Liu , Junchao He , Qing Huang

Accurately estimating forest net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is paramount for a deeper understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle and ecosystem functioning. However, current models struggle to represent environmental stress responses and canopy heterogeneity simultaneously, limiting accuracy and transferability across forest types. To address these limitations, we propose TL-DenseNet, a hybrid framework that augments a two-leaf light use efficiency (TL-LUE) backbone with DenseNet (Densely connected convolutional networks) deep-learning subnetworks to estimate dynamic actual light use efficiency (LUE), integrating multi-source environmental drivers to characterize their complex nonlinear relationships with NEP. TL-DenseNet further decomposes NEP into sunlit leaf GPP (GPP_su), shaded leaf GPP (GPP_sh), and ecosystem respiration (Re) and performs end-to-end NEP reconstruction. Results show that at the 8-day scale, the model reduces RMSE relative to the purely data-driven DenseNet by approximately 6.56%, 7.35%, 3.12%, and 12.40% for MF, ENF, DBF, and EBF, respectively; compared with the stepwise physical TL-Rh model, RMSE is reduced by about 26.95%, 30.59%, 30.67%, and 32.41% across those forest types. Replacing a static LUE_max with dynamically inferred LUE yielded an additional NEP RMSE reduction of ∼3.5%–6.6%. Across all flux tower sites, 89% exhibited high agreement between simulated and observed 8-day NEP seasonal variations (R² > 0.6), demonstrating strong generalization performance. These results indicate that TL-DenseNet, by combining mechanistic process representation with data-driven optimization, substantially improves NEP estimation accuracy and generalizability while retaining physical interpretability, thereby providing a scalable methodological advance for global forest carbon-flux estimation.

准确估算森林净生态系统生产力（NEP）对于深入了解陆地碳循环和生态系统功能至关重要。然而，目前的模型难以同时表示环境胁迫反应和冠层异质性，限制了森林类型之间的准确性和可转移性。为了解决这些限制，我们提出了TL-DenseNet，这是一个混合框架，它将两叶光利用效率（TL-LUE）主干与DenseNet（密集连接卷积网络）深度学习子网络相结合，以估计动态实际光利用效率（LUE），整合多源环境驱动因素以表征其与NEP的复杂非线性关系。TL-DenseNet进一步将NEP分解为阳光叶片GPP （GPPsu）、阴影叶片GPP （GPPsh）和生态系统呼吸（Re），并进行端到端的NEP重建。结果表明，在8天尺度下，相对于纯数据驱动的DenseNet，该模型对MF、ENF、DBF和EBF的RMSE分别降低了约6.56%、7.35%、3.12%和12.40%；与逐级物理TL-Rh模型相比，RMSE分别降低了26.95%、30.59%、30.67%和32.41%。用动态推断的LUEmax替换静态LUEmax可使NEP RMSE降低约3.5%-6.6%。在所有通量塔站点中，89%的站点在模拟和观测的8天NEP季节变化之间表现出高度一致性（R2 > 0.6），显示出很强的泛化性能。这些结果表明，TL-DenseNet通过将机制过程表示与数据驱动优化相结合，在保持物理可解释性的同时，大大提高了NEP估算的准确性和概率性，从而为全球森林碳通量估算提供了可扩展的方法进步。

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引用次数: 0

Applications of Markov chains in climate change modelling: A comprehensive review of advances, challenges, and future directions 马尔可夫链在气候变化模拟中的应用：进展、挑战和未来方向的全面回顾

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111470

Arumugam Raju

Markov chains have emerged as powerful tools for modelling complex climate systems and their evolution over time. This comprehensive review examines the state-of-the-art applications of Markov chain methods in climate change modelling, highlighting recent advances, ongoing challenges, and promising future directions. We survey how Markov chains are being utilized to capture stochastic processes in climate dynamics, model extreme weather events, and project long-term climate trends. Key areas of progress include the development of nonhomogeneous and higher-order Markov models to better represent nonstationary climate processes, the integration of Markov chains with machine learning techniques for improved predictive power, and the application of hidden Markov models to uncover latent climate states. The challenges discussed include parameter estimation in high-dimensional systems, the ability to handle nonlinear climate dynamics, and the ability to quantify uncertainty in Markov-based projections. In the future, we identify emerging research directions such as the use of quantum Markov chains for modelling quantum effects in climate systems, the development of adaptive Markov models for real-time climate forecasting, and the application of Markov decision processes to climate adaptation strategies. This review synthesizes current knowledge and provides a roadmap for future research, emphasizing the critical role of Markov chain methods in advancing our understanding and prediction of climate change.

马尔可夫链已经成为模拟复杂气候系统及其随时间演变的有力工具。这篇全面的综述研究了马尔可夫链方法在气候变化建模中的最新应用，突出了最近的进展、持续的挑战和有希望的未来方向。我们调查了如何利用马尔可夫链来捕捉气候动力学中的随机过程，模拟极端天气事件，并预测长期气候趋势。关键的进展领域包括非齐次和高阶马尔可夫模型的发展，以更好地表示非平稳的气候过程，马尔可夫链与机器学习技术的集成，以提高预测能力，以及应用隐马尔可夫模型来揭示潜在的气候状态。讨论的挑战包括高维系统的参数估计，处理非线性气候动力学的能力，以及在马尔可夫预测中量化不确定性的能力。在未来，我们确定了新兴的研究方向，如使用量子马尔可夫链来模拟气候系统中的量子效应，开发用于实时气候预报的自适应马尔可夫模型，以及将马尔可夫决策过程应用于气候适应策略。这篇综述综合了当前的知识，并为未来的研究提供了路线图，强调了马尔可夫链方法在促进我们对气候变化的理解和预测方面的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Integrated emergy and exergy research through co-citation analysis: Knowledge bases, evolutionary trajectories and frontier frameworks 基于共引分析的综合能源与用能研究：知识库、演化轨迹和前沿框架

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111475

Xiumei Xu , Jun Lyu , Bowen Zhan

The integrated research of emergy and exergy has promoted the innovation and development of eco-thermodynamics and eco-economics. The aim of this study is to investigate the research hotspots, frontiers, evolution paths, and inflection points of the integrated studies on emergy and exergy, by using a bibliometric approach and the database of Web of Science (WoS) (1995–2025). The results reveal the following: (1) six interlinked knowledge bases, i.e., ecological thermodynamic accounting, advanced energy systems, hybrid LCA–emergy frameworks, wetland eco-engineering, industrial metabolism, and marine natural capital assessment constitute the theoretical pillars of the field; (2) research content evolves along four nested application layers (process, system, regional, global) and has matured through three stages: theoretical foundation (pre-2005), methodological diffusion (2006–2015), and integrative deepening (2016–2025); and (3) current frontiers concentrate on standardizing global emergy baselines, coupling cosmic-exergy-based ecological footprint models, and translating emergy/exergy ratios into actionable metrics for carbon neutrality and circular-economy policies. A framework is constructed to describe the system of current related research to provide a reference for scholars to carry out targeted research.

能与用能的综合研究促进了生态热力学和生态经济学的创新与发展。本研究利用文献计量学方法和Web of Science （WoS）数据库（1995-2025），探讨了能与用能综合研究的研究热点、前沿、演变路径和拐点。结果表明：(1)生态热力学核算、先进能量系统、混合lca -能量框架、湿地生态工程、工业代谢和海洋自然资本评价6个相互关联的知识基础构成了该领域的理论支柱；(2)研究内容沿过程、系统、区域、全球四个嵌套应用层演进，经历理论基础阶段（2005年以前）、方法扩散阶段（2006-2015年）和整合深化阶段（2016-2025年）三个阶段趋于成熟；(3)目前的前沿研究集中在标准化全球能源基线，耦合基于宇宙能源的生态足迹模型，以及将能源/能源比转化为碳中和和循环经济政策的可操作指标。构建一个描述当前相关研究体系的框架，为学者开展有针对性的研究提供参考。

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引用次数: 0

Intraspecific aggregation from local dispersal mediates transient species coexistence in plant communities 植物群落中局部扩散的种内聚集介导了物种的短暂共存

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111503

Zhen Han , Zhixia Ying , Xiaobo Liu , Shiyan Wang , Zhiwei Guan , Long Sun

Understanding how niche and spatial processes jointly maintain biodiversity remains a key challenge in ecology. Using a spatially explicit cellular automaton framework, we analyzed plant coexistence dynamics across flooding gradients by simultaneously incorporating species hydrological niche, mixed dispersal strategies (ratios of global seed dispersal to local clonal growth), and intra- and interspecific neighborhood competitive interactions. Our results reveal three fundamental insights: First, niche differentiation along hydrological gradients enables stable coexistence even when intraspecific competition is weaker than interspecific competition. Second, local dispersal reproduction confers competitive advantage in heterogeneous habitats by forming spatial aggregations and minimizing propagule wastage. Third, while local dispersal-driven intraspecific aggregation prolongs coexistence by alleviating interspecific competitive interactions, it merely delays rather than prevents competitive exclusion, underscoring the transient nature of spatially-mediated coexistence. These findings advance coexistence theory by integrating environmental gradients with spatial demographic processes, and provide critical mechanistic insights for wetland biodiversity conservation.

了解生态位和空间过程如何共同维持生物多样性仍然是生态学的一个关键挑战。利用空间显式元胞自动机框架，通过同时考虑物种水文生态位、混合传播策略（全球种子传播与当地克隆生长的比率）以及种内和种间邻居竞争相互作用，分析了植物在洪水梯度中的共存动态。我们的研究结果揭示了三个基本的见解：首先，沿着水文梯度的生态位分化即使在种内竞争弱于种间竞争的情况下也能实现稳定的共存。其次，局部分散繁殖通过形成空间聚集和减少繁殖浪费，在异质生境中赋予竞争优势。第三，虽然局部分散驱动的种内聚集通过减轻种间竞争相互作用延长了共存，但它只是延迟而不是阻止竞争排斥，强调了空间介导共存的短暂性。这些发现通过整合环境梯度和空间人口过程，进一步推进了共存理论，并为湿地生物多样性保护提供了重要的机制见解。

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引用次数: 0

Stochastic quasi-cycles as a simple explanation for the time evolution of the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine ecological reserve 随机准周期对罗德尼角-奥卡里角海洋生态保护区时间演变的简单解释

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111477

César Parra-Rojas , Duccio Fanelli , Alan J. McKane

The dataset collected at the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine (CR-OPM) reserve on the North Island of New Zealand is rather unique. It describes the cyclic time evolution of a rocky intertidal community, with the relative abundances of the various coastal species that have been meticulously monitored for more than 20 years. Past theoretical studies, anchored on a deterministic description, invoked external forcing to reproduce the observed dynamical paths. Following a maximum likelihood approach to interpolate individual stochastic trajectories, we here propose quasi-cycles as an alternative, and an in our view a simpler, mechanism to explain the oscillations observed in the population numbers of the ecosystem. From a general standpoint, we also show that it is possible to return conclusive evidence on the existence of stochastic quasi-cycles, without resorting to global fitting strategies which necessitate handling a large collection of independent replicas of the dynamics, a possibility that is often precluded in real life applications.

在新西兰北岛罗德尼角-奥卡里角海洋保护区（CR-OPM）收集的数据集相当独特。它描述了一个岩石潮间带群落的循环时间演变，并对各种沿海物种的相对丰度进行了20多年的精心监测。过去的理论研究，锚定在一个确定性的描述，调用外部强迫再现观察到的动态路径。根据最大似然方法来插值单个随机轨迹，我们在这里提出了准周期作为一种替代方法，在我们看来，这是一种更简单的机制来解释在生态系统种群数量中观察到的振荡。从一般的角度来看，我们还表明，有可能返回关于随机准周期存在的结论性证据，而无需诉诸全局拟合策略，这需要处理大量独立的动力学副本，这种可能性在现实生活应用中经常被排除。

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引用次数: 0

Collaborative strategies for inter-city low-carbon development: integrating cross-game and system dynamics approaches 城市间低碳发展的协同策略：整合跨博弈和系统动力学方法

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111462

Yi Ding , Jian Yin

Inter-city carbon management requires addressing complex inter-regional dynamics to foster sustainable, low-carbon futures. This study introduces a cross-game framework—an integrated game structure that incorporates both horizontal interactions (between governments or between enterprises) and vertical interactions (between governments and enterprises) within the inter-city carbon emission system. By integrating cross-game dynamics and system dynamics modeling, we simulate carbon emissions evolution, using the Chengdu-Chongqing region—a key carbon-emitting area in China—as a case study. Our findings suggest that traditional corporate self-regulation and government oversight alone are insufficient for achieving low-carbon goals. Instead, achieving a balanced, low-carbon future requires adaptive, cooperative strategies that reflect the unique capacities of each city. Specifically, Chongqing’s government shows relatively lower efficiency in reaching equilibrium compared to Chengdu’s, though its companies exhibit higher flexibility. Cross-regional order shifting profoundly influence inter-regional strategic decisions, contrasting with the limited influence of free-rider benefits. Furthermore, regional government and corporate actions exert weaker, sometimes inverse, effects on other regions. This cross-game model deepens understanding of interactions among carbon-emission agents and offers insights for future strategies to support sustainable, low-carbon collaboration in city clusters.

城市间的碳管理需要解决复杂的区域间动态，以促进可持续的低碳未来。本研究引入了一个跨博弈框架，即城市间碳排放系统中既包含横向（政府与企业之间）互动，又包含纵向（政府与企业之间）互动的一体化博弈结构。通过整合跨博弈动力学和系统动力学模型，以中国碳排放重点地区成渝地区为例，模拟了碳排放演化过程。我们的研究结果表明，仅靠传统的企业自律和政府监管不足以实现低碳目标。相反，实现一个平衡、低碳的未来需要适应、合作的战略，以反映每个城市的独特能力。具体来说，与成都相比，重庆政府在实现均衡方面的效率相对较低，尽管重庆企业表现出更高的灵活性。与搭便车利益的有限影响形成鲜明对比的是，跨区域秩序转移深刻影响区域间战略决策。此外，地区政府和企业的行为对其他地区的影响较弱，有时甚至是相反的。这种跨博弈模型加深了对碳排放主体之间相互作用的理解，并为支持城市群可持续低碳合作的未来战略提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Bridging gaps in agro-ecosystem integration: a multi-level modelling study in semi-arid Burkina Faso 弥合农业生态系统整合的差距：半干旱布基纳法索的多层次模型研究

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111478

Gildas G.C. Assogba , David Berre , Myriam Adam , Etienne Delay , Erika Speelman , Katrien Descheemaeker

Mixed crop–livestock systems are central to livelihoods in semi-arid West Africa, yet they face persistent challenges related to low input efficiency, nutrient depletion, and food insecurity. These systems are characterized by complex social and biophysical interactions that produce nonlinear outcomes, complicating sustainable management.

To unravel this complexity, we developed TENGA—an agent-based model (ABM) simulating the dynamics of 700 heterogeneous farms in semi-arid Burkina Faso. The model captured spatial and temporal interactions among crop and livestock management, nutrient flows, and farmers’ interactions. A Morris sensitivity analysis was used to identify key parameters influencing system behavior, and scenario analysis explored interventions to improve crop-livestock integration including legume intensification (increasing the functional contribution of nitrogen-fixing legumes), fertilizer subsidies, and intensified direct exchange of manure and crop residues.

Nitrogen uptake efficiency, livestock feed parameters, manure management, and social interactions emerged as critical drivers of system outcomes. Sensitivity analysis revealed nonlinear feedbacks, particularly in the propagation of farm-level effects (e.g. income) to village-level dynamics (e.g. equity). Antagonistic responses among farm types reduced overall system gains, highlighting the interconnectedness of component interactions. Scenario results showed that while nitrogen-fixing legumes improved yields and reduced nutrient mining, they also reduced herd size and increased transhumance pressure. Fertilizer subsidies favored wealthier farms but did not address food insecurity among subsistence households. Intensified residue–manure exchanges enhanced nutrient recycling but had minimal impact at system level.

This study demonstrates the utility of ABMs for exploring the multi-dimensional and multi-level dynamics of mixed farming systems of semi-arid West Africa.

在半干旱的西非，混合作物-牲畜系统是生计的核心，但它们面临着投入效率低、养分枯竭和粮食不安全等方面的持续挑战。这些系统的特点是复杂的社会和生物物理相互作用，产生非线性结果，使可持续管理复杂化。为了揭示这种复杂性，我们开发了tenga -一个基于代理的模型（ABM），模拟了半干旱的布基纳法索700个异质农场的动态。该模型捕捉了作物和牲畜管理、养分流动和农民之间的时空相互作用。利用Morris敏感性分析确定了影响系统行为的关键参数，并通过情景分析探讨了改善作物-牲畜一体化的干预措施，包括豆类强化（增加固氮豆类的功能贡献）、肥料补贴和加强粪便和作物残留物的直接交换。氮吸收效率、牲畜饲料参数、粪便管理和社会互动成为系统结果的关键驱动因素。敏感性分析揭示了非线性反馈，特别是在农场一级效应（如收入）到村庄一级动态（如公平）的传播方面。农场类型之间的拮抗反应降低了整个系统的收益，突出了组成部分相互作用的相互关联性。情景结果表明，固氮豆科植物在提高产量和减少养分开采的同时，也减少了畜群规模，增加了放牧压力。化肥补贴有利于富裕的农场，但并没有解决自给家庭的粮食不安全问题。强化残粪肥交换促进了养分循环，但在系统水平上影响最小。本研究证明了ABMs在探索半干旱西非混合农业系统的多维和多层次动态方面的效用。

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引用次数: 0

Mapping ecosystem services trade-offs as a decision tool for comprehensive ecological land-use planning 地图生态系统服务权衡作为综合生态土地利用规划的决策工具

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111496

Ke Zhao , Sepideh Vatankhah , Zhong-Wei Li

Comprehensive ecological land-use (LU) planning is inherently multi-objective, as it requires the assessment of spatial development suitability across three core objectives: food security, ecological security, and living space. This process involves a complex many-to-many matching problem between two interacting components: multi-suitable land covers (LCs) and competing LU demands. To address this challenge, this study introduces the Mapping Ecosystem Services Trade-offs (MEST) framework, a novel spatial approach designed to resolve such many-to-many relationships. The framework is grounded in nonlinear scientific thinking, which emphasizes relational understanding of complex phenomena, and integrates this perspective with spatial mapping techniques. Specifically, MEST leverages ecosystem services (ES) trade-offs and cascade relationships through a divergent reasoning approach tailored to complex spatial interactions. Eight essential ES are quantified and spatially mapped, both individually and interactively, at a socially relevant scale using a monetary valuation method. Autocorrelation, correlation, and clustering analyses are then employed to identify six distinct socio-ecological subsystems: the Food Provisioning Zone, Eco-Protection Zone, Eco-Transition Zone, Urban Tourism Zone, Ecologically Vulnerable Zone, and Ecological Harmony Zone. Each subsystem represents an area in which ecosystem functions do not produce counterbalancing or mutually constraining effects. Based on these results, three strategic principles are proposed to restructure production, living, and ecological spaces in Khorasan, guiding the spatial delineation of Agricultural Production Areas, Urban Construction Areas, and Ecological Protection Areas. This work addresses a persistent challenge in sustainable development—reconciling competing LUs without diminishing the supply or resilience of vital ES. Overall, the MEST framework demonstrates strong potential for resolving LU conflicts through a simple yet effective algorithm, offering a practical and relationship-oriented approach to sustainable LU management.

综合生态土地利用规划本质上是多目标的，它需要对粮食安全、生态安全和生活空间三个核心目标的空间发展适宜性进行评估。该过程涉及两个相互作用的组件之间复杂的多对多匹配问题：多适合的土地覆盖（LCs）和竞争的土地覆盖需求。为了应对这一挑战，本研究引入了映射生态系统服务权衡（MEST）框架，这是一种新颖的空间方法，旨在解决这种多对多关系。该框架以非线性科学思维为基础，强调对复杂现象的关系理解，并将这种观点与空间映射技术相结合。具体而言，MEST通过针对复杂空间相互作用量身定制的发散推理方法，利用生态系统服务（ES）权衡和级联关系。使用货币评估方法，在与社会相关的尺度上，对8个基本ES进行了量化和空间映射，无论是单独的还是交互的。利用自相关分析、相关分析和聚类分析，确定了粮食供给区、生态保护区、生态过渡区、城市旅游区、生态脆弱区和生态和谐区6个不同的社会生态子系统。每个子系统代表一个生态系统功能不产生平衡或相互制约效应的区域。在此基础上，提出了呼罗珊生产、生活和生态空间重构的三大战略原则，指导了呼罗珊农业生产区、城市建设区域和生态保护区的空间划分。这项工作解决了可持续发展中的一个长期挑战，即在不减少重要生态系统供应或恢复力的情况下协调相互竞争的生态系统。总的来说，MEST框架展示了通过简单而有效的算法解决逻辑单元冲突的强大潜力，为可持续的逻辑单元管理提供了实用的、面向关系的方法。

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