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Simulation modelling demonstrates differential performance of connectivity methods in their ability to predict genetic diversity in complex landscapes 模拟建模表明,连通性方法在预测复杂地貌中遗传多样性的能力方面存在差异
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110886
Luciano Atzeni , Samuel A. Cushman , David W. Macdonald

Context

There have been few evaluations of how well different connectivity modelling methods are able to predict the spatial genetic structure and genetic diversity of populations residing in complex landscapes. Given the wide application of connectivity modelling tools in applied conservation planning, it is crucial to broadly evaluate how these models perform across resistance, movement, and population structure conditions in predicting genetic diversity patterns. Such evaluations are critical to provide rigorous, biologically based guidance for conservation and management applications.

Objectives

Our goal was to investigate how the predictions of three connectivity models were related to spatial patterns of genetic diversity complex landscapes, considering factors such as population structure, resistance, genetic drift, genetic disequilibrium, and organism movement abilities.

Methods

We evaluated the performance of several connectivity methods across seven a priori landscape resistance surfaces to provide a broad assessment of their performance. We used CDPOP, an individual-based, spatially explicit population and genetic simulation model, to simulate genetic diversity across these resistance surfaces. This provided a pool of genetic diversity patterns that were the response factor in our simulation experiment. We then simulated landscape connectivity with several popular connectivity methods, including resistant kernels, Circuitscape, and Pathwalker, and evaluated how well they were able to predict spatial patterns of genetic diversity.

Results

Resistant kernel outperformed other connectivity methods in predicting landscape patterns of genetic diversity. The strongest relationships occurred when the population process has created spatial structure but has not yet led to significant genetic diversity loss due to drift. The time lag disequilibrium was relatively short. Long simulation times resulted in severe reduction in prediction ability due to drift.

Conclusions

Resistant kernel predictions were much more strongly related to spatial patterns of genetic diversity than were predictions produced by Circuitscape and Pathwalker, across a large combination of population structures. Strong relationships exist between functional connectivity and genetic diversity, with clearer and stronger associations seen in spatial patterns of allelic richness compared to heterozygosity or spatial effective population size. Our results confirm the strong relationship between genetic diversity and population connectivity, and suggest that computationally efficient incidence function algorithms, such as resistant kernel methods, are well suited to predicting functional connectivity.
背景对于不同的连通性建模方法如何预测复杂地貌中种群的空间遗传结构和遗传多样性,目前还很少有评估。鉴于连通性建模工具在应用保护规划中的广泛应用,广泛评估这些模型在预测遗传多样性模式时在阻力、运动和种群结构条件下的表现至关重要。这种评估对于为保护和管理应用提供严格的、基于生物学的指导至关重要。我们的目标是研究三种连通性模型的预测与遗传多样性复杂地貌的空间模式之间的关系,同时考虑种群结构、抵抗力、遗传漂移、遗传不平衡和生物移动能力等因素。我们使用 CDPOP(一种基于个体、空间明确的种群和遗传模拟模型)来模拟这些抵抗力表面的遗传多样性。这为我们的模拟实验提供了一个遗传多样性模式库,作为响应因子。然后,我们用几种流行的连通性方法(包括抗性内核、Circuitscape 和 Pathwalker)模拟了景观连通性,并评估了它们预测遗传多样性空间模式的能力。当种群过程已经形成空间结构,但漂移尚未导致遗传多样性的显著丧失时,它们之间的关系最为紧密。不平衡的时滞相对较短。结论在大量种群结构组合中,抗性内核预测与遗传多样性空间模式的关系比 Circuitscape 和 Pathwalker 预测更为密切。功能连通性与遗传多样性之间存在密切关系,与杂合度或空间有效种群规模相比,等位基因丰富度的空间模式与遗传多样性之间的关系更清晰、更紧密。我们的研究结果证实了遗传多样性与种群连通性之间的密切关系,并表明计算效率高的发生函数算法(如抗性核方法)非常适合预测功能连通性。
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引用次数: 0
Analyses of the variable selection using correlation methods: An approach to the importance of statistical inferences in the modelling process 使用相关方法对变量选择进行分析:在建模过程中重视统计推断的方法
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110893
Mauricio Díaz-Vallejo , Alexander Peña-Peniche , Claudio Mota-Vargas , Javier Piña-Torres , Daniel Valencia-Rodríguez , Coral E. Rangel-Rivera , Juliana Gaviria-Hernández , Octavio Rojas-Soto
Selecting the best set of variables in ecological niche models (ENM) and species distribution models (SDM) has become a topic of interest in correlative models, leading to the use of statistical methods to estimate the relationships between variables. However, selecting sets of variables requires several decisions, such as choosing sources of information (i.e., species records and calibration areas) and statistical methods to optimize the modelling process while preventing the overestimation of parameters. In the present study, we analyzed four scenarios for selecting variables in ENM/SDM, including the implication of using the Pearson and Spearman correlation methods, with two strategies to extract the variables' information: species records and calibration areas. First, we conducted a bibliographic review to determine the most used methods to select variables. 134 of the 150 articles selected applied correlation methods, 47 used Pearson and 18 Spearman, and the remaining 69 did not specify the type of correlation method. Also, 19 articles employed species records, 20 used calibration areas, and 95 did not specify how they selected variables, showing the absence of clarity and consistency in variables selection. Then, we explored the same four combinations for 56 bird species. We conducted normality tests for the variables per species and found a tendency for non-normal distributions. Furthermore, we performed Pearson and Spearman correlations using species records and calibration areas as extraction strategies and discussed the differences between each one. Finally, we built different sets of variables and performance SDM for six species and found that the set of variables selected has a different composition based on their strategy. Our findings highlight the absence of clarity and consistency in describing correlation coefficients commonly used for environmental variable selection and emphasize its significant implications.
在生态位模型(ENM)和物种分布模型(SDM)中选择最佳的变量集已成为相关模型的一个关注主题,从而导致使用统计方法来估计变量之间的关系。然而,变量集的选择需要几个决策,如选择信息来源(即物种记录和校准区域)和统计方法,以优化建模过程,同时防止参数被高估。在本研究中,我们分析了 ENM/SDM 中选择变量的四种方案,包括使用皮尔逊和斯皮尔曼相关方法的影响,以及提取变量信息的两种策略:物种记录和校准区域。首先,我们进行了文献综述,以确定最常用的变量选择方法。所选的 150 篇文章中有 134 篇采用了相关方法,其中 47 篇采用了皮尔逊法,18 篇采用了斯皮尔曼法,其余 69 篇没有说明相关方法的类型。此外,19 篇文章采用了物种记录,20 篇文章采用了校准区域,95 篇文章没有说明如何选择变量,这表明变量选择缺乏明确性和一致性。然后,我们对 56 种鸟类进行了同样的四种组合研究。我们对每个物种的变量进行了正态性检验,发现存在非正态分布的趋势。此外,我们还使用物种记录和校准区域作为提取策略,进行了皮尔逊和斯皮尔曼相关性分析,并讨论了每种策略之间的差异。最后,我们为六个物种建立了不同的变量集和性能 SDM,并发现根据不同的策略,所选择的变量集具有不同的构成。我们的发现凸显了环境变量选择常用的相关系数描述缺乏清晰性和一致性,并强调了其重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring aquaculture related traits of the grooved carpet shell (Ruditapes decussatus) in relation to other bivalve species using Dynamic Energy Budget theory 利用动态能量预算理论,探讨沟纹地毯贝(Ruditapes decussatus)与其他双壳贝类的水产养殖相关特征
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110883
Merel Lanjouw , Henrice M. Jansen , Jaap van der Meer
To assess the potential of the grooved carpet shell (Ruditapes decussatus) for aquaculture in Europe, we used Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to perform extensive parametrization on the species and compared its energy allocation strategy with those of commonly farmed bivalve species: mussels (Mytilus edulis and Mytilus galloprovincialis), oysters (Ostrea edulis and Magallana gigas), the common cockle (Cerastoderma edule), and great scallop (Pecten maximus). The comparison was based on DEB primary parameters relevant to aquaculture production, such as maximum assimilation rate and kappa, which represents the fraction of energy allocated to maintenance and growth, and compound parameters like the von Bertalanffy growth coefficient and maximum storage density. Furthermore, we evaluated the production efficiency at the population level, which represents the ratio of assimilated energy converted into biomass. Our results revealed notable differences in energy utilization strategies among species. However, uncertainties in parameter estimation and environmental factors challenge the direct translation of these parameters to real-world aquaculture, therefore our interpretation focuses on how these parameters might influence a species’ potential for aquaculture. The grooved carpet shell exhibits a balanced energy allocation strategy with a low growth coefficient and low maintenance costs, leading to high production efficiency. Similarly, the common mussel focuses on growth with significant biomass investment over reproduction, while the Pacific oyster and Mediterranean mussel prioritize reproductive development. The flat oyster and scallop demonstrate rapid growth at the cost of the low production efficiencies. The grooved carpet shell and mussels face constraints such as limited reserves, making them comparatively more susceptible to low food quality and quantity. In contrast, high storage densities in species like the common cockle, scallop, and Pacific oyster suggest resilience to fluctuating food conditions. These findings, along with both agreements and discrepancies with existing literature, highlight the need for further experimental research to refine DEB parameters and enhance their application in aquaculture. Overall, the DEB framework proves effective for exploring aquaculture traits across species and underscores the need for additional work on temperature-related processes, life-history events, and morphological variation.
为了评估沟纹地毯贝(Ruditapes decussatus)在欧洲的水产养殖潜力,我们使用动态能量预算(DEB)理论对该物种进行了广泛的参数化,并将其能量分配策略与常见的养殖双壳贝类物种进行了比较:贻贝(Mytilus edulis和Mytilus galloprovincialis)、牡蛎(Ostrea edulis和Magallana gigas)、普通毛蚶(Cerastoderma edule)和扇贝(Pecten maximus)。比较依据的是与水产养殖生产相关的 DEB 主要参数,如最大同化率和 kappa(代表分配给维持和生长的能量部分),以及复合参数,如 von Bertalanffy 生长系数和最大储存密度。此外,我们还评估了种群水平的生产效率,即同化能量转化为生物量的比率。我们的研究结果表明,不同物种的能量利用策略存在明显差异。然而,参数估计和环境因素的不确定性对将这些参数直接转化为实际水产养殖提出了挑战,因此我们的解释侧重于这些参数可能如何影响物种的水产养殖潜力。沟纹地毯贝表现出均衡的能量分配策略,生长系数低,维护成本低,因而生产效率高。同样,普通贻贝注重生长,大量生物量投资超过繁殖,而太平洋牡蛎和地中海贻贝则优先考虑生殖发展。平牡蛎和扇贝以较低的生产效率为代价实现了快速增长。槽毯贝和贻贝面临储备有限等制约因素,使其相对更容易受到食物质量和数量低下的影响。与此相反,普通毛蚶、扇贝和太平洋牡蛎等物种的高储存密度表明,它们对波动的食物条件有很强的适应能力。这些发现以及与现有文献的一致和不一致之处,突出表明需要进一步开展实验研究,以完善DEB参数并加强其在水产养殖中的应用。总之,DEB框架证明可有效探索不同物种的水产养殖特征,并强调需要在温度相关过程、生活史事件和形态变异方面开展更多工作。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Site-level and spatially-explicit modelling provides some insights on key factors driving seasonal dynamics of an intertidal seagrass ” [Ecological Modelling 495 (September 2024) 1–13/110802 (13p.)] 对 "场地级和空间显性建模提供了关于潮间带海草季节动态关键驱动因素的一些见解 "的更正[生态建模 495 (September 2024) 1-13/110802 (13p.)]
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110888
H. Muller , E. Auclair , A. Woehrel , F. Ganthy , P. Tandeo , P.PY. Wu , C. Chercham , M.P. Marzloff
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引用次数: 0
One century of carbon dynamics in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under various management strategies and climate change projections 各种管理策略和气候变化预测下加拿大东部北方森林一个世纪的碳动态变化
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110894
Abderrahmane Ameray , Xavier Cavard , Dominic Cyr , Osvaldo Valeria , Miguel Montoro Girona , Yves Bergeron
Partial cutting has lower canopy removal intensities than clearcutting and has been proposed as an alternative harvesting approach to enhance ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and storage. However, the ideal partial cutting/clearcutting proportion that should be applied to managed areas of the eastern Canadian boreal forest to enhance long-term carbon sequestration and storage at the landscape scale remains uncertain. Our study projected carbon dynamics over 100 years (2010–2110) under a portfolio of management strategies and future climate scenarios within three boreal forest management units in Quebec, Canada, distributed along an east–west gradient. To model future carbon dynamics, we used LANDIS-II, its Forest Carbon Succession extension, and several extensions that account for natural disturbances in the boreal forest (wind, fire, spruce budworm). We simulated the effects of several management strategies on carbon dynamics, including a business-as-usual strategy (clearcutting applied to more than 95 % of the annually managed area), and compared these projections against a no-harvest natural dynamics scenario. We projected an overall increase in total ecosystem carbon storage, mostly because of increased productivity and broadleaf presence under limited climate change. The drier Western region under climate scenario RCP8.5 was an exception, as stocks decreased after 2090 because of the direct negative effects of extreme climate change on coniferous species’ productivity. Under the natural dynamic scenario, our simulations suggest that the Quebec Forest in the Central and Western regions may act as a carbon sink, despite high fire-related carbon emissions, particularly under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Conversely, the eastern region periodically switched from carbon sink to source following SBW outbreaks, thus being a weak sink over the simulation period. Applying partial cutting to over 50 % of the managed forest area effectively mitigated the negative impacts of climate change on carbon balance, reducing differences in stand composition and carbon storage between naturally dynamic forests and those managed for timber. In contrast, clearcutting-based scenarios, including the business-as-usual approach, substantially reduced total ecosystem carbon storage— by approximately double (10 tC ha−1 yr−1) compared to partial cutting scenarios (<5 tC ha−1 yr−1). Clearcutting led to higher heterotrophic respiration due to the proliferation of fast-decomposing broadleaves, resulting in lower carbon accumulation compared to partial cuts. Our findings underscore the importance of balancing canopy removal intensities to increase carbon sequestration and storage while preserving other ecosystem qualities under climate change.
与皆伐相比,部分砍伐的树冠去除强度较低,因此被提议作为一种替代采伐方法,以增强生态系统服务,包括碳固存和碳存储。然而,加拿大东部北方森林管理区应采用何种理想的部分砍伐/皆伐比例,以提高景观尺度上的长期碳固存和储存,目前仍不确定。我们的研究预测了加拿大魁北克省沿东西梯度分布的三个北方森林管理单位在一系列管理策略和未来气候情景下 100 年(2010-2110 年)的碳动态。为了建立未来碳动态模型,我们使用了 LANDIS-II、其森林碳演替扩展和几个考虑到北方森林自然干扰(风、火、云杉芽虫)的扩展。我们模拟了几种管理策略对碳动态的影响,其中包括 "一切照旧 "策略(对每年管理面积的 95% 以上进行砍伐),并将这些预测与不砍伐的自然动态情景进行了比较。我们预测生态系统总碳储量总体上会增加,这主要是因为在有限的气候变化条件下,生产力和阔叶树的存在增加了。但 RCP8.5 气候情景下较干旱的西部地区是个例外,由于极端气候变化对针叶树种生产力的直接负面影响,2090 年后该地区的碳储量有所减少。在自然动态情景下,我们的模拟结果表明,尽管与火灾相关的碳排放量较高,但中部和西部地区的魁北克森林可能成为碳汇,尤其是在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下。对超过 50% 的受管理森林面积进行部分砍伐,可有效减轻气候变化对碳平衡的负面影响,减少天然动态森林与木材管理森林之间在林分组成和碳储量方面的差异。相比之下,包括 "一切照旧 "方法在内的基于皆伐的方案大大减少了生态系统的总碳储量--与部分皆伐方案(5 吨碳/公顷/年-1)相比,减少了约一倍(10 吨碳/公顷/年-1)。由于快速分解的阔叶植物大量繁殖,清割导致异养呼吸作用增加,从而使碳积累量低于部分砍伐。我们的研究结果表明,在气候变化的情况下,必须平衡树冠的砍伐强度,以增加碳固存和储存,同时保护生态系统的其他质量。
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引用次数: 0
An integrated environmental-economic assessment of orange production in China during 2010–2020 2010-2020 年中国柑橘生产环境经济综合评估
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110885
Jiayu Hu , Xiaohan Ma , Yanfeng Lyu , Xiaohong Zhang
It is unclear how agricultural materials use affects environmental sustainability, carbon emissions and economic benefit of fruit plantation as well as relationships among the three aspects. To address these issues, Chinese orange production, as a study case, was investigated through combination of emergy method, carbon footprint and economic analysis, as well as the proposed co-benefit index based on emergy-carbon-economy. This evaluation framework was applied to assess orange production in Chinese seven provinces during 2010–2020. On average, Jiangxi has the highest emergy sustainability level (0.14) while Guangxi and Chongqing show the lowest level (0.08). Chongqing and Guangdong achieve the best and the worst economic benefit (3.34 vs. 1.78 in terms of Return on Investment) respectively. Hunan and Guangdong possess the lowest and the largest carbon emission intensity (0.11 vs. 0.90 kg CO2-eq kg −1 product) accordingly. Hunan and Guangdong achieve the best and the worst co-benefit effect (13.52 vs. 0.48 in terms of Co-benefit Index) respectively. Except Hunan and Jiangxi, emergy sustainability adversely affects co-benefit effect of orange production in the other five provinces. Carbon emission intensity reduces co-benefit effect of orange production in Guangdong. Economic benefit weakens co-benefit effect of orange production in Fujian, Hubei, Hunan and Guangdong. The work proposed one feasible framework for investigating comprehensive performance of fruit production based on emergy – carbon - economy.
农业材料的使用如何影响水果种植的环境可持续性、碳排放和经济效益,以及三者之间的关系尚不清楚。为解决这些问题,以中国柑橘生产为研究案例,通过结合应急能耗法、碳足迹和经济分析,以及所提出的基于应急能耗-碳-经济的共同效益指数,对中国柑橘生产进行了研究。该评价框架被用于评估 2010-2020 年中国七省的橘子产量。平均而言,江西的应急可持续性水平最高(0.14),而广西和重庆的水平最低(0.08)。重庆和广东的经济效益最好和最差(投资回报率分别为 3.34 和 1.78)。湖南和广东的碳排放强度分别为最低和最高(0.11 vs. 0.90 kg CO2-eq kg -1 product)。湖南和广东的共同效益效果最好,最差(共同效益指数分别为 13.52 和 0.48)。除湖南和江西外,其他五省的应急可持续性都对柑橘生产的共同效益产生了不利影响。碳排放强度降低了广东柑橘生产的共同效益。经济效益削弱了福建、湖北、湖南和广东柑橘生产的共同效益效应。该研究为基于应急-碳-经济的水果生产综合绩效研究提出了一个可行的框架。
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引用次数: 0
Real-time assessment of live forest fuel moisture content and flammability by using space-time universal kriging 利用时空通用克里金法实时评估活林燃料含水量和可燃性
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110867
Andrea Viñuales , Fernando Montes , Mercedes Guijarro , Cristina Gómez , Ignacio de la Calle , Javier Madrigal
Despite the critical role that live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays in shaping both fire occurrence and behaviour, integration of this factor in wildfire risk assessment remains constrained. Similarly, although flammability is a key factor, its cartographic representation at landscape level poses serious challenges, primarily due to the reliance on bench-scale laboratory experiments for obtaining data. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial and temporal dynamics of LFMC and fuel flammability quantified by the peak heat release rate (PHRR), within a fire-prone forest region in southern Spain. This vulnerable Mediterranean ecosystem is characterized by the prevalence of Pinus pinea L. forests and Cistus ladanifer L. shrublands. LFMC was assessed in fifteen field surveys spanning two fire seasons, across thirty-eight sampling plots, by spatio-temporal universal kriging (UK). Similarly, flammability was assessed in eight surveys, including one fire season, across eight sampling plots, by spatio-temporal universal cokriging (UCK). The auxiliary variables considered were temperature, seasonality, insolation and spectral indices derived from Sentinel-2 and MODIS satellite-derived data. The resulting models exhibited good accuracy, with RMSE values ranging from 11.78 % to 11.89 % for LFMC calibration and between 19.84 % and 20.15 % for the validation data set. Similarly, regarding flammability, RMSE values ranged from 24.08 % to 24.10 % for calibration and between 30.63 % and 30.66 % for validation. LFMC and flammability maps were generated. Temporal autocorrelation in the LFMC models had a significant impact on their performance, whereas PHRR demonstrated a stronger influence through spatial autocorrelation. These unprecedented findings are of great importance in fire behaviour analysis, as the concurrent use of LFMC and PHRR appears to yield diverse yet complementary insights. The use of these techniques, previously unexplored for this specific purpose, marks a significant advance in the field of forest fuel modelling and fire risk evaluation.
尽管活燃料含水量(LFMC)在影响火灾发生和行为方面起着关键作用,但将这一因素纳入野火风险评估仍然受到限制。同样,尽管可燃性是一个关键因素,但其在景观层面上的制图表达却面临着严峻的挑战,这主要是由于依赖台架规模的实验室实验来获取数据。本研究旨在评估西班牙南部森林火灾易发区内的 LFMC 和以峰值热释放率 (PHRR) 量化的燃料可燃性的时空动态。这个脆弱的地中海生态系统的特点是松树林和 Cistus ladanifer L.灌木林的普遍存在。通过时空通用克里格法(UK),在跨越两个火灾季节的十五次实地调查中,对三十八个取样地块的可燃性进行了评估。同样,通过时空通用克里格法(UCK)对八个取样地块进行了八次调查(包括一个火灾季节),评估了可燃性。所考虑的辅助变量包括温度、季节性、日照和从哨兵-2 和 MODIS 卫星数据中得出的光谱指数。结果表明模型具有良好的准确性,LFMC 校准的均方根误差值在 11.78 % 到 11.89 % 之间,验证数据集的均方根误差值在 19.84 % 到 20.15 % 之间。同样,在可燃性方面,校准的 RMSE 值介于 24.08 % 到 24.10 % 之间,验证的 RMSE 值介于 30.63 % 到 30.66 % 之间。生成了 LFMC 和易燃性地图。LFMC 模型中的时间自相关性对其性能有显著影响,而 PHRR 则通过空间自相关性显示出更大的影响。这些史无前例的发现对火灾行为分析具有重要意义,因为同时使用 LFMC 和 PHRR 似乎能产生不同但互补的见解。这些技术以前从未被用于这一特定目的,它们的使用标志着森林燃料建模和火灾风险评估领域的重大进展。
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引用次数: 0
When to add a new process to a model – and when not: A marine biogeochemical perspective 何时在模型中添加新过程--何时不添加:海洋生物地球化学视角
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110870
Adrian P. Martin , Angela Bahamondes Dominguez , Chelsey A. Baker , Chloé M.J. Baumas , Kelsey M. Bisson , Emma Cavan , Mara Freilich , Eric Galbraith , Martí Galí , Stephanie Henson , Karin F. Kvale , Carsten Lemmen , Jessica Y. Luo , Helena McMonagle , Francisco de Melo Viríssimo , Klas Ove Möller , Camille Richon , Iyyappan Suresh , Jamie D. Wilson , Matthew S. Woodstock , Andrew Yool
Models are critical tools for environmental science. They allow us to examine the limits of what we think we know and to project that knowledge into situations for which we have little or no data. They are by definition simplifications of reality. There are therefore inevitably times when it is necessary to consider adding a new process to a model that was previously omitted. Doing so may have consequences. It can increase model complexity, affect the time a model takes to run, impact the match between the model output and observations, and complicate comparison to previous studies using the model. How a decision is made on whether to add a process is no more objective than how a scientist might design a laboratory experiment. To illustrate this, we report on an event where a broad and diverse group of marine biogeochemists were invited to construct flowcharts to support making the decision of when to include a new process in a model. The flowcharts are used to illustrate both the complexity of factors that modellers must consider prior to making a decision on model development and the diversity of perspectives on how that decision should be reached. The purpose of this paper is not to provide a definitive protocol for making that decision. Instead, we argue that it is important to acknowledge that there is no objectively “best” approach and instead we discuss the flowcharts created as a means of encouraging modellers to think through why and how they are doing something. This may also hopefully guide observational scientists to understand why it may not always be appropriate to include a process they are studying in a model.
模型是环境科学的重要工具。它们使我们能够审视我们自以为了解的知识的局限性,并将这些知识投射到我们几乎没有或根本没有数据的情况中去。顾名思义,模型是对现实的简化。因此,有时难免需要考虑在模型中增加一个以前忽略的新过程。这样做可能会产生后果。它可能会增加模型的复杂性,影响模型运行所需的时间,影响模型输出与观测结果之间的匹配,并使与以前使用该模型进行的研究进行比较变得复杂。如何决定是否添加一个过程并不比科学家如何设计实验室实验更客观。为了说明这一点,我们报告了一次活动的情况,在这次活动中,我们邀请了一群广泛而多样的海洋生物地球化学家绘制流程图,以支持何时在模型中加入一个新过程的决策。这些流程图既说明了建模者在做出模型开发决策之前必须考虑的复杂因素,也说明了在如何做出决策方面的观点多样性。本文的目的并不是为做出这一决定提供一个明确的方案。相反,我们认为,重要的是要承认没有客观的 "最佳 "方法,相反,我们将讨论所创建的流程图作为一种手段,鼓励建模者思考他们为什么和如何做某事。这也有望引导观测科学家理解为什么将他们正在研究的过程纳入模型并不总是合适的。
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引用次数: 0
Dispersal of optimal foragers in a patchy environment: Simulations with a mathematical model and tests of predictions in field experiments 斑块环境中最佳觅食者的散布:数学模型模拟和实地实验预测检验
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110887
Xavier Fauvergue , Keith R. Hopper
To predict the effect of density on the dispersal of foraging parasitoids, we developed a spatially explicit individual-based model in which parasitoids move among host patches at random but use an optimal decision-rule about when to leave these patches. We used a simple decision rule where an individual forager exploits a patch as long as the instantaneous attack rate is higher than the average attack rate it has experienced in the environment. Such a rule implies that foragers compute and remember attack rates as they forage. Simulations with different combinations of patch distribution, host density, mutual interference, and parasitoid density predicted that dispersal distance should increase with parasitoid density. To test this prediction, we used data from two field experiments in which we released either few or many adults of the aphid parasitoid Aphelinus asychis in replicated sites, and subsequently assessed dispersal from the spatial distribution of parasitoid offspring. In the first experiment, we did not to detect a relation between the number released and dispersal distance, but in the second experiment, dispersal distance increased with initial density, as predicted by our model. We propose two hypotheses to explain the discrepancy between the experiments. Different levels of environmental variability among experiments, resulting from differences in experimental designs, could cause differences in statistical conclusions. However, there could be a threshold density below which dispersal is not density-dependent, and this threshold may have been exceeded in the second experiment where large releases involved many more individuals than in the first experiment. In any case, our approach linked individual behavior and spatial distribution, and our results show that the insect distributions in the field can be predicted, qualitatively, from theory about individual behavior.
为了预测密度对觅食寄生虫扩散的影响,我们建立了一个基于个体的空间显式模型,在该模型中,寄生虫在寄主斑块间随机移动,但在何时离开这些斑块上使用最优决策规则。我们使用了一个简单的决策规则,即只要瞬时攻击率高于环境中的平均攻击率,觅食者个体就会利用该斑块。这种规则意味着觅食者在觅食过程中会计算和记忆攻击率。通过对斑块分布、寄主密度、相互干扰和寄生虫密度的不同组合进行模拟,我们预测传播距离会随着寄生虫密度的增加而增加。为了验证这一预测,我们使用了两个野外实验的数据。在这两个实验中,我们在重复的地点释放了少量或大量的蚜虫寄生虫Aphelinus asychis成虫,随后根据寄生虫后代的空间分布评估了扩散情况。在第一个实验中,我们没有检测到释放数量与扩散距离之间的关系,但在第二个实验中,扩散距离随着初始密度的增加而增加,正如我们的模型所预测的那样。我们提出了两个假设来解释实验之间的差异。由于实验设计的不同,各实验之间的环境变异程度不同,这可能会导致统计结论的差异。然而,可能存在一个阈值密度,低于该阈值密度,扩散就不依赖于密度,而在第二次实验中,大量释放的个体数量比第一次实验多得多,可能已经超过了这个阈值。无论如何,我们的方法将个体行为与空间分布联系起来,我们的结果表明,根据个体行为的理论,可以定性地预测昆虫在野外的分布。
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引用次数: 0
Good modelling software practices 良好的建模软件实践
IF 2.6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110890
Carsten Lemmen , Philipp Sebastian Sommer
Frequently in socio-environmental sciences, models are used as tools to represent, understand, project and predict the behaviour of these complex systems. Along the modelling chain, Good Modelling Practices have been evolving that ensure — amongst others — that models are transparent and their results replicable. Whenever such models are represented in software, Good Modelling meet Good Software Practices, such as a tractable development workflow, good code, collaborative development and governance, continuous integration and deployment; and they meet Good Scientific Practices, such as attribution of copyrights and acknowledgement of intellectual property, publication of a software paper and archiving. Too often in existing socio-environmental model software, these practices have been regarded as an add-on to be considered at a later stage only; modellers have shied away from publishing their model as open source out of fear that having to add good practices is too demanding. We here argue for making a habit of following a list of simple and not so simple practices early on in the implementation of the model life cycle. We contextualise cherry-picked and hands-on practices for supporting Good Modelling Practice, and we demonstrate their application in the example context of the Viable North Sea fisheries socio-ecological systems model.
在社会环境科学中,模型经常被用作表示、理解、预测这些复杂系统行为的工具。在建模过程中,"良好建模规范 "一直在不断发展,其中包括确保模型的透明性及其结果的可复制性。每当这些模型用软件表示时,"良好建模 "都符合 "良好软件规范",如可操作性强的开发工作流程、良好的代码、协作开发和管理、持续集成和部署;它们还符合 "良好科学规范",如版权归属和知识产权确认、软件论文的出版和归档。在现有的社会环境模型软件中,这些实践往往被认为是在稍后阶段才需要考虑的附加内容;建模者由于担心增加良好实践的要求过高,而不愿将其模型作为开放源代码发布。在此,我们主张在模型生命周期的早期阶段就养成遵循一系列简单和不简单实践的习惯。我们对支持良好建模实践的精选实践和亲身实践进行了阐述,并以可行的北海渔业社会生态系统模型为例对其应用进行了演示。
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引用次数: 0
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Ecological Modelling
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