Ecological Modelling最新文献_第6页

Mapping ecosystem services trade-offs as a decision tool for comprehensive ecological land-use planning 地图生态系统服务权衡作为综合生态土地利用规划的决策工具

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111496

Ke Zhao , Sepideh Vatankhah , Zhong-Wei Li

Comprehensive ecological land-use (LU) planning is inherently multi-objective, as it requires the assessment of spatial development suitability across three core objectives: food security, ecological security, and living space. This process involves a complex many-to-many matching problem between two interacting components: multi-suitable land covers (LCs) and competing LU demands. To address this challenge, this study introduces the Mapping Ecosystem Services Trade-offs (MEST) framework, a novel spatial approach designed to resolve such many-to-many relationships. The framework is grounded in nonlinear scientific thinking, which emphasizes relational understanding of complex phenomena, and integrates this perspective with spatial mapping techniques. Specifically, MEST leverages ecosystem services (ES) trade-offs and cascade relationships through a divergent reasoning approach tailored to complex spatial interactions. Eight essential ES are quantified and spatially mapped, both individually and interactively, at a socially relevant scale using a monetary valuation method. Autocorrelation, correlation, and clustering analyses are then employed to identify six distinct socio-ecological subsystems: the Food Provisioning Zone, Eco-Protection Zone, Eco-Transition Zone, Urban Tourism Zone, Ecologically Vulnerable Zone, and Ecological Harmony Zone. Each subsystem represents an area in which ecosystem functions do not produce counterbalancing or mutually constraining effects. Based on these results, three strategic principles are proposed to restructure production, living, and ecological spaces in Khorasan, guiding the spatial delineation of Agricultural Production Areas, Urban Construction Areas, and Ecological Protection Areas. This work addresses a persistent challenge in sustainable development—reconciling competing LUs without diminishing the supply or resilience of vital ES. Overall, the MEST framework demonstrates strong potential for resolving LU conflicts through a simple yet effective algorithm, offering a practical and relationship-oriented approach to sustainable LU management.

综合生态土地利用规划本质上是多目标的，它需要对粮食安全、生态安全和生活空间三个核心目标的空间发展适宜性进行评估。该过程涉及两个相互作用的组件之间复杂的多对多匹配问题：多适合的土地覆盖（LCs）和竞争的土地覆盖需求。为了应对这一挑战，本研究引入了映射生态系统服务权衡（MEST）框架，这是一种新颖的空间方法，旨在解决这种多对多关系。该框架以非线性科学思维为基础，强调对复杂现象的关系理解，并将这种观点与空间映射技术相结合。具体而言，MEST通过针对复杂空间相互作用量身定制的发散推理方法，利用生态系统服务（ES）权衡和级联关系。使用货币评估方法，在与社会相关的尺度上，对8个基本ES进行了量化和空间映射，无论是单独的还是交互的。利用自相关分析、相关分析和聚类分析，确定了粮食供给区、生态保护区、生态过渡区、城市旅游区、生态脆弱区和生态和谐区6个不同的社会生态子系统。每个子系统代表一个生态系统功能不产生平衡或相互制约效应的区域。在此基础上，提出了呼罗珊生产、生活和生态空间重构的三大战略原则，指导了呼罗珊农业生产区、城市建设区域和生态保护区的空间划分。这项工作解决了可持续发展中的一个长期挑战，即在不减少重要生态系统供应或恢复力的情况下协调相互竞争的生态系统。总的来说，MEST框架展示了通过简单而有效的算法解决逻辑单元冲突的强大潜力，为可持续的逻辑单元管理提供了实用的、面向关系的方法。

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引用次数: 0

Advances and challenges in multi‑scale water environment system modeling: from process simulation to a novel simulator architecture 多尺度水环境系统建模的进展与挑战：从过程模拟到新型模拟器架构

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111498

Rui Xia , Sheng Chen , Yan Ding , Mingdong Sun , Yali Wu , Kaifang Shi , Yajing Cai , Kai Zhang , Yan Chen , Lei Zou

Water ecological environment models serve as essential scientific tools for watershed ecological governance and management, yet they still exhibit notable limitations in systematicity, accuracy, and adaptability when addressing complex multi‑media and cross‑scale ecosystems. Current research lacks a systematic synthesis of the evolutionary pathways of multi‑scale models and has not fully integrated the strengths of artificial intelligence (AI) and mechanistic modeling, which constrains breakthroughs in water ecological system simulation from methodology to application. This paper systematically reviews the development trajectories and typical applications of water ecological environment models across different scales—including watersheds, rivers, lakes/reservoirs, urban water systems, and marine environments—proposes a “source‑flow‑network‑sink” multi‑process coupled systemic architecture, and explores pathways for integrating AI and environmental foundation models into simulation and prediction. The study finds that water ecological simulation in China urgently needs to shift from imported applications toward independent innovation and standardized development. Priority should be given to developing multi‑model coupling architectures with independent intellectual property, establishing localized parameter databases, and deeply incorporating AI and big‑data methods in model calibration, prediction, and uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the research highlights that building intelligent simulator systems and promoting their operational application is a critical pathway for enhancing ecological risk early‑warning and decision‑support capabilities.

水生态环境模型是流域生态治理和管理的重要科学工具，但在处理复杂的多媒体和跨尺度生态系统时，其系统性、准确性和适应性仍存在明显的局限性。目前的研究缺乏对多尺度模型演化路径的系统综合，也没有充分融合人工智能和机制建模的优势，制约了水生态系统模拟从方法论到应用的突破。本文系统回顾了水生态环境模型在流域、河流、湖泊/水库、城市水系和海洋环境等不同尺度上的发展轨迹和典型应用，提出了“源-流-网-汇”多过程耦合系统架构，探索了人工智能与环境基础模型集成到模拟与预测中的途径。研究发现，中国水生态模拟急需从引进应用转向自主创新和规范发展。重点发展具有自主知识产权的多模型耦合体系结构，建立本地化的参数数据库，在模型标定、预测和不确定度量化等方面深入融合人工智能和大数据方法。此外，研究强调，构建智能模拟器系统并促进其操作应用是增强生态风险预警和决策支持能力的关键途径。

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引用次数: 0

Demographic rates of Adélie penguins from Approximate Bayesian Computation and time-lapse cameras 基于近似贝叶斯计算和延时相机的adassei企鹅的人口统计学比率

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111488

Clare M. Flynn , Ignacio Juárez-Martínez , Tom Hart , Heather J. Lynch

The underlying mechanisms by which Pygoscelis penguin populations are changing cannot be fully understood without knowledge of how stressors influence specific phases of their life histories. We developed a method to estimate key vital rates of Adélie penguins- age-specific survival, breeding success, and breeding propensity- using Approximate Bayesian Computation and data from time series of abundances and breeding success samples. Our goals were to (1.) estimate demographic vital rates without tracking individuals, (2.) determine the spatial autocorrelation of breeding propensity, and (3.) assess whether auxiliary estimates of breeding success, such as from time-lapse cameras, can improve estimates of penguin demographic rates. We estimated demographic rates for eight Adélie penguin populations in the Antarctic Peninsula region and found that time series of abundances yielded the strongest inference on average adult survival, which our model assumed was shared by all populations, and mean breeding propensity rates for two populations. Adult survival and the highest and lowest cases of breeding propensity were likely discernible because they are strong drivers of trend and interannual variability, respectively. Breeding propensity rates varied by population, though were more similar to nearby populations. This points to breeding propensity being driven primarily by local environmental factors. Surprisingly, the inclusion of auxiliary breeding success data did not improve our estimates of demographic transitions or model performance. This study demonstrates that while some demographic insights remain limited without mark-recapture data, time series of abundances can provide key information on survival and breeding propensity that is readily and cost effectively scaled up.

如果不了解压力源如何影响企鹅生活史的特定阶段，就无法完全理解扁舌企鹅种群变化的潜在机制。我们开发了一种方法，利用近似贝叶斯计算和时间序列丰度和繁殖成功样本的数据来估计ad利亚企鹅的关键关键率——特定年龄的存活率、繁殖成功率和繁殖倾向。我们的目标是：(1)在不跟踪个体的情况下估计人口动态率，(2)确定繁殖倾向的空间自相关性，以及(3)评估繁殖成功的辅助估计，例如从延时相机，是否可以改善对企鹅人口统计率的估计。我们估计了南极半岛地区8个阿德海氏企鹅种群的人口统计率，发现丰度的时间序列对平均成年存活率产生了最强的推断，我们的模型假设所有种群都共享，以及两个种群的平均繁殖倾向率。成虫存活率和繁殖倾向的最高和最低案例可能是可辨别的，因为它们分别是趋势和年际变化的强大驱动因素。繁殖倾向率因种群而异，但与附近种群更为相似。这表明繁殖倾向主要是由当地环境因素驱动的。令人惊讶的是，包括辅助育种成功数据并没有改善我们对人口转变或模型性能的估计。这项研究表明，虽然在没有标记再捕获数据的情况下，一些人口统计学见解仍然有限，但时间序列丰度可以提供关于生存和繁殖倾向的关键信息，这些信息很容易且成本有效地扩大。

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引用次数: 0

Trophic modeling of temperature, nutrient, and hypoxia dynamics on Japanese anchovy populations in Osaka Bay 大阪湾日本凤尾鱼种群温度、营养和缺氧动态的营养模拟

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111467

Kohei Oka , Akio Sohma

Anchovy (Engraulis spp.) populations are globally important fishery resources that are being increasingly threatened by rising sea temperatures, nutrient decline, and hypoxia. In this study, we developed a novel Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model for Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in Osaka Bay, integrating species-specific physiological responses to water temperature, nutrient availability, and dissolved oxygen across the food web. The model successfully reproduced long-term trends in biomass and catch, validated by PREBAL diagnostics and historical data. Sensitivity analyses revealed that moderate warming (+2°C) enhanced anchovy biomass, whereas excessive warming (+3°C) and severe nutrient reduction decreased biomass through prey scarcity and hypoxia-induced mortality. Moderate warming (+1°C) or moderate nutrient enrichment (×1.5) increased Japanese anchovy biomass. Excessive warming (+3°C) decreased biomass primarily due to prey loss, while excessive nutrient enrichment (×3.0) reduced biomass mainly through hypoxia. These findings emphasize the cascading interactions among nutrient dynamics, primary production, prey availability, and predator mortality under environmental stressors. Despite uncertainties, our modeling approach provides actionable insights for integrated coastal management and climate adaptation strategies, offering a practical tool for sustaining fishery resources in a changing ocean. This study applies EwE by explicitly integrating the physiological responses of primary producers to temperature and nutrient changes, as well as the responses of consumers to temperature and hypoxia effects. By validating this integrated formulation through single-stressor analyses, it provides a robust basis for future multi-stressor applications.

凤尾鱼（Engraulis spp.）种群是全球重要的渔业资源，正日益受到海水温度上升、营养物质下降和缺氧的威胁。在这项研究中，我们为大阪湾的日本凤尾鱼（Engraulis japonicus）开发了一个新的Ecopath with Ecosim （EwE）模型，整合了物种对水温、养分有效性和食物网中溶解氧的特定生理反应。该模型成功地再现了生物量和捕获量的长期趋势，并得到了PREBAL诊断和历史数据的验证。敏感性分析显示，适度增温（+2°C）增加了凤尾鱼生物量，而过度增温（+3°C）和严重的营养减少通过猎物稀缺和缺氧导致的死亡减少了凤尾鱼生物量。适度升温（+1°C）或适度营养富集（×1.5）增加了日本凤尾鱼生物量。过度变暖（+3°C）主要由于猎物损失而减少生物量，而过度营养丰富（×3.0）主要通过缺氧减少生物量。这些发现强调了在环境压力下营养动态、初级产量、猎物可得性和捕食者死亡率之间的级联相互作用。尽管存在不确定性，但我们的建模方法为沿海综合管理和气候适应战略提供了可操作的见解，为在不断变化的海洋中维持渔业资源提供了实用工具。本研究通过明确整合初级生产者对温度和营养变化的生理反应，以及消费者对温度和缺氧影响的反应来应用EwE。通过单一压力源分析验证了这一集成公式，为未来的多压力源应用提供了坚实的基础。

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引用次数: 0

From local to regional: Enhancing groundwater management with simulation models like MODFLOW and geospatial technologies 从地方到区域：利用MODFLOW等模拟模型和地理空间技术加强地下水管理

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111456

Rameez A Shah , Aurooj Shafi , SMA Andrabi , Shaziya M Shah , Shahnawaz Hassan , Aufaq Ahmad Zargar

With increasing dependence on groundwater due to deteriorating surface water quality, effective groundwater management has become critically important. This paper provides a comprehensive review of advancements in groundwater modeling with a primary focus on MODFLOW and its derivatives. MODFLOW, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, has evolved into a modular and versatile modeling framework. Advanced versions such as MODFLOW-NWT, MODFLOW-USG, and MODFLOW-LGR have extended the model’s ability to simulate complex hydrogeological conditions, including unconfined aquifers, irregular boundaries, and refined local grids. The integration of MODFLOW with graphical user interfaces like Visual MODFLOW and Groundwater Modelling System (GMS), and the introduction of MODFLOW 6, have improved model usability and simulation capabilities. Furthermore, the coupling of MODFLOW with other simulation tools like SEAWAT, HYDRUS, FEFLOW, and MIKE SHE supports multi-process modeling involving groundwater flow, solute transport, and surface water interactions. This paper also explores the integration of remote sensing and GIS technologies, which enhance spatial data resolution and compensate for data limitations, particularly in data-scarce regions such as the Himalayan basin. Case studies demonstrate how these integrated modeling tools are applied in groundwater flow analysis, recharge estimation, contaminant transport, and climate impact assessments. These applications highlight the growing role of MODFLOW-based tools in supporting sustainable water resource management. The review underscores the need for ongoing innovation in groundwater modeling, particularly through the integration of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud-based platforms, and the Internet of Things (IoT). These tools offer promising avenues for enhancing predictive accuracy and supporting more informed, real-time decision-making. Ultimately, this paper aims to assist researchers, planners, and policymakers in advancing integrated and sustainable groundwater management strategies.

随着地表水水质的恶化，对地下水的依赖日益增加，有效的地下水管理变得至关重要。本文全面回顾了地下水建模的进展，主要集中在MODFLOW及其衍生工具上。由美国地质调查局开发的MODFLOW已经发展成为一个模块化和通用的建模框架。MODFLOW-NWT、MODFLOW-USG和MODFLOW-LGR等高级版本扩展了模型模拟复杂水文地质条件的能力，包括无承压含水层、不规则边界和精细的局部网格。MODFLOW与可视化MODFLOW和地下水建模系统（GMS）等图形用户界面的集成，以及MODFLOW 6的引入，提高了模型的可用性和模拟能力。此外，MODFLOW与其他模拟工具（如SEAWAT、HYDRUS、FEFLOW和MIKE SHE）的耦合支持涉及地下水流动、溶质运输和地表水相互作用的多过程建模。本文还探讨了遥感和地理信息系统技术的整合，提高了空间数据的分辨率，弥补了数据的局限性，特别是在数据稀缺的地区，如喜马拉雅盆地。案例研究展示了这些综合建模工具如何应用于地下水流量分析、补给估算、污染物输送和气候影响评估。这些应用凸显了基于modflow的工具在支持可持续水资源管理方面日益重要的作用。该评估强调了地下水建模持续创新的必要性，特别是通过人工智能、云计算平台和物联网（IoT）等新兴技术的整合。这些工具为提高预测准确性和支持更明智的实时决策提供了有希望的途径。最终，本文旨在帮助研究人员、规划者和决策者推进综合和可持续的地下水管理战略。

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引用次数: 0

Reducing parameter uncertainty in kinetic models: A new strategy for experimental design 降低动力学模型参数不确定性：实验设计的新策略

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111424

Konrad Matyja

Mechanistic models can be used to simulate, optimize, and control bioprocesses. The accuracy and reliability of their predictions strongly depend on the uncertainty of model parameters. The quality of estimates is therefore a crucial feature of the model used. There are many methods of experimental design, often based on linear regression and simple statistical reasoning; however, there is a lack of methods dedicated to designing experiments that provide optimal data sets for kinetic model calibration. It appears that parameters-to-data sensitivity coefficients (PSCs) can be used to determine when dependent variables need to be measured to achieve a good model fit. Therefore, in this study, various methods for determining PSCs and evaluating their properties were assessed to propose a new experimental design procedure. The new method enables a reduction in the number of measurements and the uncertainty of estimated parameters. It can be used to reduce the time and costs of experiments.

机械模型可用于模拟、优化和控制生物过程。他们预测的准确性和可靠性在很大程度上取决于模型参数的不确定性。因此，估计的质量是所使用模型的一个关键特征。有许多实验设计方法，通常基于线性回归和简单的统计推理；然而，缺乏专门设计实验的方法，为动力学模型校准提供最佳数据集。似乎参数对数据的敏感性系数（PSCs）可以用来确定何时需要测量因变量以实现良好的模型拟合。因此，在本研究中，评估了各种测定psc和评估其性质的方法，提出了一种新的实验设计程序。新方法可以减少测量次数和估计参数的不确定度。它可以减少实验的时间和成本。

引用次数: 0

A bi-level game model for dynamic pollutant load allocation integrating pollutant transport processes and stakeholder interaction 考虑污染物运输过程和利益相关者互动的污染物负荷动态分配双层博弈模型

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111425

Rui Zhao, Xuefeng Min, Yang Yu, Wenjie Xu, Shi Yang, Lianghan Zhu, Qin Mou

Basin-wide pollutant load allocation is essential for integrated pollution control, but current approaches often overlook future pollutant discharge, rely on single policy instruments, and neglect multi-stakeholder interactions. To address these limitations, this study proposes a Bi-Level Game Dynamic Allocation Model (BLG-DAM) that synergistically integrates pollutant transport processes, stakeholder interactions, and environmental tax responses. Driven by meteorological data fusion from the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets (CMADS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA5) datasets, the SWAT model achieves high-fidelity simulation of pollutant transport. Incorporating system dynamics enables the bi-level game to capture strategic stakeholder interactions across governance levels while facilitating dynamic information transfer between decision-makers and implementers. Applied to the ecologically sensitive Meishan reach of China’s Minjiang River Basin, which subject to intense urban-rural pollution pressures, the model quantified 2020 annual loads at 7690.25 tons NH₃N, 8759.11 tons TN, and 9387.29 tons TP. Optimization results demonstrate that the proposed BLG-DAM can achieve reductions in NH₃-N, TN, and TP loads by 43.77 %, 32.48 %, and 35.79 %, respectively, by 2025. Under an environmental tax rate of 14 CNY per pollution equivalent, the model is projected to generate a total basin revenue of 2.15 billion CNY, while also increasing cooperation among control units from 25 % to 90 %. These outcomes indicate a successful alignment of economic incentives with water-quality targets, underscoring the model’s utility as a practical and scalable tool for supporting sustainable watershed management.

全流域污染物负荷分配对于综合污染控制至关重要，但目前的方法往往忽视了未来的污染物排放，依赖单一的政策工具，忽视了多方利益相关者的相互作用。为了解决这些限制，本研究提出了一个双级博弈动态分配模型（BLG-DAM），该模型协同整合了污染物运输过程、利益相关者互动和环境税收反应。SWAT模型在中国气象同化驱动数据集（CMADS）和欧洲中期天气预报再分析中心（ERA5）数据集的气象数据融合驱动下，实现了对污染物运移的高保真模拟。结合系统动力学使双层博弈能够在促进决策者和实现者之间动态信息传递的同时，捕获跨治理级别的战略涉众交互。将该模型应用于城乡污染压力较大的岷江流域梅山河段，量化得出2020年NH3N为7690.25 t， TN为8759.11 t， TP为9387.29 t。优化结果表明，到2025年，BLG-DAM可以使NH₃-N、TN和TP的负荷分别减少43.77%、32.48%和35.79%。在每污染当量14元的环境税税率下，该模型预计将产生21.5亿元的流域总收入，同时将控制单位之间的合作从25%提高到90%。这些结果表明经济激励与水质目标的成功结合，强调了该模型作为支持可持续流域管理的实用和可扩展工具的效用。

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引用次数: 0

Emergy-based environmental decision making: H.T. Odum´s heritage for appropriate use of resources and environmental services 基于能值的环境决策：H.T. Odum对资源和环境服务的合理利用的遗产

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111435

Sergio Ulgiati , Patrizia Ghisellini , Yanxin Liu , Renato Passaro

Economies still rely on a “user value” concept, i.e. value depends on market competition (demand vs offer) as well as work potential (exergy) within technological and economic processes. Howard Odum´s innovative Emergy concept (Odum, 1994) reverses the assessment, by pointing out that the value of a good or commodity relies on the biosphere´s work to generate and make available (“donor value”) resources and services needed within an economic process. Such an assessment is performed by converting all driving flows of available energy (exergy) into flows of solar equivalent energy (Emergy), in so identifying a new value-assessment currency. This value depends on Nature, not on market. According to this reversed framework, an appropriate evaluation of the sustainability of economic and social processes should take into consideration the renewability of resources within biosphere and therefore their future availability. Odum´s “donor-side” approach is a real innovation in policy-making, in that it includes space and time scales assessments for the evaluation of the value of a resource. Developing and comparing emergy-based economic, environmental and social evaluations of human-dominated and natural processes allows a comprehensive evaluation of costs, performance, resilience and sustainability of individual activities, technologies, regulatory decisions, investments, trade, by means of a unique and comparable currency. The Emergy approach could be a tool for policy makers and stakeholders to realize that a new science-based and nature-based pattern is possible and to figure out how this pattern could be. This study aims at showing the applicability of the emergy approach as policy-making tool by means of case studies in different sectors of society and economics.

经济仍然依赖于“用户价值”概念，即价值取决于市场竞争（需求与提供）以及技术和经济过程中的工作潜力（能量）。Howard Odum的创新的能量概念（Odum, 1994）通过指出一种商品或商品的价值依赖于生物圈的工作来产生和提供经济过程中所需的资源和服务（“捐助者价值”），从而推翻了这种评估。这样的评估是通过将所有可用的驱动能量流（能源）转换成太阳能当量能量流（能）来进行的，从而确定一种新的价值评估货币。这个价值取决于自然，而不是市场。根据这一颠倒的框架，对经济和社会进程的可持续性的适当评价应考虑到生物圈内资源的可再生性，从而考虑到它们未来的可得性。Odum的“捐赠方”方法是决策方面的一项真正创新，因为它包括空间和时间尺度的评估，以评价资源的价值。开发和比较以能值为基础的经济、环境和社会评价，对人类主导的和自然的过程进行评价，可以通过一种独特和可比的货币，全面评价个别活动、技术、管理决策、投资、贸易的成本、绩效、复原力和可持续性。energy方法可以成为政策制定者和利益相关者的一种工具，让他们意识到一种基于科学和自然的新模式是可能的，并找出这种模式是如何实现的。本研究旨在通过对社会和经济不同部门的个案研究，展示能源方法作为决策工具的适用性。

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引用次数: 0

Unpacking drivers of heterotrophic N2 fixation across aquatic redox gradients: A mathematical model with bioenergetic and stoichiometric constraints 跨水生氧化还原梯度异养氮固定的拆包驱动因素：具有生物能量和化学计量约束的数学模型

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111454

Corday R. Selden , Rebecca A. Everett , Halvor M. Halvorson , Megan E. Berberich , Luca Schenone , Angela Peace , Renn Schipper , Edwin Cruz-Rivera , James Powell , Keisuke Inomura , Robinson W. Fulweiler , Amy M. Marcarelli , J. Thad Scott

N₂ fixation by aquatic organoheterotrophs supplies bioavailable nitrogen to the biosphere and thereby supports ecosystem production; yet the factors which drive this activity are poorly understood. Here, we present a generalized chemostat model to investigate stoichiometric and energetic constraints on free-living heterotrophic diazotrophs across gradients in redox state, resource quantity/quality, and resource stoichiometry. The model couples nutrient uptake and allocation functions to predict elemental fluxes with an energy dissipation model to calculate growth efficiency. After constraining model parameters with relevant culturing (e.g., Azotobacter) and environmental literature, we assessed model sensitivity to these parameters using Latin Hypercube Sampling and the statistical Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient technique. Consistent with the limited observational data available, the results showed energy acquisition and respiratory efficiency as two major controls on N₂ fixation. The model predicted the presence of N₂ fixation under both N-limiting and N-replete conditions, as seen in nature. N₂ fixation under N-replete conditions increased with increasing resource C:N, and was least sensitive to exogenous N under eutrophic conditions with an energy-rich C source. While N₂ fixation under N-replete conditions represented a relatively small (<4 %) contribution to community N demand, absolute rates under these conditions were on par with field observations under N-limitation due to higher overall heterotrophic production rates. Resolving physiological, stoichiometric, and energetic constraints on diazotrophic growth, this model unpacks drivers of N₂ fixation by metabolically diverse heterotrophs.

水生有机异养生物固氮为生物圈提供生物可利用氮，从而支持生态系统的生产；然而，人们对推动这种活动的因素知之甚少。在这里，我们提出了一个广义的趋化模型来研究自由生活的异养重氮养生物在氧化还原状态、资源数量/质量和资源化学计量学方面的化学计量和能量限制。该模型结合养分吸收和分配函数来预测元素通量，并用能量耗散模型来计算生长效率。在用相关培养（例如，固氮菌）和环境文献约束模型参数后，我们使用拉丁超立方采样和统计偏秩相关系数技术评估模型对这些参数的敏感性。与有限的观测数据一致，结果表明能量获取和呼吸效率是N2固定的两个主要控制因素。该模型预测在限氮和补氮条件下存在N2固定，正如在自然界中所见。富氮条件下的固氮量随资源C:N的增加而增加，富营养化条件下对外源氮的敏感性最低。虽然在全氮条件下固氮对群落氮需求的贡献相对较小（< 4%），但由于总体异养生产速率较高，在这些条件下的绝对速率与氮限制下的实地观测结果相当。该模型解决了重氮营养生长的生理、化学计量和能量限制，揭示了代谢多样化的异养生物固定N2的驱动因素。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating emergy theory and food security: An examination of the emergy exchange ratio 整合能量理论与粮食安全：对能量交换比率的考察

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111429

Rafael Araújo Nacimento , Mario Duarte Canever , Fábio José Muneratti Ortega , Luiz Carlos Terra dos Santos , Regis Augusto Ely , Augusto Hauber Gameiro , Feni Agostinho , Cecília Almeida , Biagio Fernando Giannetti

Food security is often linked to economic exchange, but it involves broader dynamics and can also be achieved through non-market pathways. Recognizing this complexity, the Emergy Exchange Ratio (EER) was proposed—a ratio between the emergy of food acquired and that of money spent—as a complementary indicator to assess food security. In this study, we examined the relationship between the EER and the four dimensions of food security using indicators from the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). Machine learning models, particularly Ridge Regression, were employed to predict EER values for Brazil from 2012 to 2022. The Ridge model showed strong performance (R² = 0.89; MAE = 0.035), indicating good explanatory power. Among 25 GFSI indicators, “food security and access policy commitments” (∼16 %) and “sufficiency of supply” (∼14 %) were the top predictors of EER variation. These results suggest that the EER is sensitive to public policies and food supply dynamics, indicating its relationship with food security. Limitations include the focus on Brazilian data and data quality constraints. Still, EER offers a systemic, biophysical lens on food access grounded in Odum’s emergy theory.

粮食安全通常与经济交换联系在一起，但它涉及更广泛的动态，也可以通过非市场途径实现。认识到这种复杂性，人们提出了能量交换比（EER）——获得食物的能量与花费金钱的能量之间的比率——作为评估粮食安全的补充指标。在这项研究中，我们使用全球粮食安全指数（GFSI）的指标来检验EER与粮食安全四个维度之间的关系。机器学习模型，特别是Ridge回归，被用来预测巴西2012年至2022年的EER值。Ridge模型表现出较强的解释力（R²= 0.89;MAE = 0.035）。在25个GFSI指标中，“粮食安全和获取政策承诺”（~ 16%）和“供应充足”（~ 14%）是EER变化的主要预测因子。这些结果表明，环境影响指数对公共政策和粮食供应动态敏感，表明其与粮食安全之间存在关系。限制包括对巴西数据和数据质量限制的关注。尽管如此，EER还是以Odum的能量理论为基础，为食物获取提供了一个系统的、生物物理的视角。

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