Ecological Modelling最新文献_第4页

Modeling the effects of phenological mismatch in tick questing and host demographic turnover on Lyme disease hazard 模拟蜱虫觅食的物候错配和宿主人口更替对莱姆病危害的影响

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110910

Asena Goren , Atle Mysterud , Yngvild Vindenes

Climate change is altering the seasonal abundance and activity patterns of ecologically interacting species. It is not yet known how changes in phenological alignment between ticks and their hosts will impact tick feeding, survival, and the timing and probability of pathogen transmission during feeding. It has been observed that the seasonal timing of human Lyme disease cases has shifted earlier, accompanying an increased incidence, which may reflect changes in tick questing phenology. We present a mathematical model framework for exploring the seasonal dynamics of a tick-borne pathogen. The model extends a recently developed seasonal population matrix model for ixodid ticks feeding on a small and a large host, to i) incorporate the transmission of a pathogen, based on the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, between ticks and a reservoir-competent small mammal host, and ii) include seasonal demographic turnover in the small mammal host. Through modification of model parameters, we explored the effects of alternative scenarios for tick questing phenology, tick host selection, and seasonality of host reproduction on disease dynamics. Our model predicts that due to differences in their life history, seasonal infection prevalence is much more variable in the small mammalian host than in the tick vector. The rapid pace of host demographic turnover is important for clearing infection in the small mammal population. The alignment between the seasonal timing of host reproduction and tick questing phenology is a critical feature in the model, as it determines pathogen transmission and infection prevalence in host and vector populations. The model predicts that increased asynchrony between larval tick feeding and small host reproduction can increase the number of infected questing nymphs, a common metric for Lyme disease hazard. When larval tick feeding is misaligned with small host reproduction, the larvae feed predominantly on older hosts, which are more likely to be infected. Our model presents an adaptable framework for exploring seasonal relationships between pathogen dynamics, host demography, and vector life history traits in an emergent tick-borne disease system.

气候变化正在改变生态上相互影响的物种的季节丰度和活动模式。目前尚不清楚蜱虫及其宿主之间的物候变化将如何影响蜱虫的摄食、存活以及摄食期间病原体传播的时间和概率。据观察，人类莱姆病病例的季节性时间已经提前，伴随着发病率的增加，这可能反映了蜱虫寻食物候的变化。我们提出了一个探索蜱传病原体季节动态的数学模型框架。该模型对最近开发的以小型和大型宿主为食的伊科蜱季节性种群矩阵模型进行了扩展：i）纳入了病原体（基于莱姆病的病原体--广义鲍瑞氏菌）在蜱和有储藏能力的小型哺乳动物宿主之间的传播；ii）纳入了小型哺乳动物宿主的季节性人口更替。通过修改模型参数，我们探索了蜱虫寻食物候学、蜱虫宿主选择和宿主繁殖季节性等不同情况对疾病动力学的影响。我们的模型预测，由于小型哺乳动物宿主的生活史不同，它们的季节性感染率要比蜱媒介的感染率变化大得多。宿主人口的快速更替对于清除小型哺乳动物种群中的感染非常重要。宿主繁殖的季节性时间与蜱虫求偶的物候学之间的一致性是该模型的一个关键特征，因为它决定了病原体在宿主和媒介种群中的传播和感染率。该模型预测，蜱幼虫取食与小宿主繁殖之间的不同步会增加受感染的求偶若虫数量，这是衡量莱姆病危害的常用指标。当蜱幼虫取食与小宿主繁殖不同步时，幼虫主要取食较老的宿主，而较老的宿主更有可能受到感染。我们的模型提供了一个适应性强的框架，可用于探索新出现的蜱传疾病系统中病原体动态、宿主人口统计和媒介生活史特征之间的季节性关系。

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引用次数: 0

High-resolution spatiotemporal forecasting of the European crane migration 欧洲鹤类迁徙的高分辨率时空预测

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110884

K. De Koning , L. Nilsson , J. Månsson , O. Ovaskainen , B. Kranstauber , M. Arp , J.K. Schakel

In this paper we present three different models to forecast bird migration. They are species-specific individual-based models that operate on a high spatiotemporal resolution (kilometres, 15 min-hours), as an addition to radar-based migration forecast models that currently exist. The models vary in complexity, and use GPS-tracked location, flying direction and speed, and/or wind data to forecast migration speed and direction. Our aim is to quantitatively evaluate the forecasting performance and assess which metrics improve forecasts at different ranges. We test the models through cross-validation using GPS tracks of common cranes during spring and autumn migration. Our results show that recordings of flight speed and direction improve the accuracy of forecasts on the short range (<2 h). Adding wind data at flight altitude results in consistent improvements of the forecasts across the entire range, particularly in the predicted speed. Direction forecasts are less affected by adding wind data because cranes mostly compensate for wind drift during migration. Migration in spring is more difficult to forecast than in autumn, resulting in larger errors in flight speed and direction during spring. We further find that a combination of flight behaviours – thermal soaring, gliding, and flapping – complicates the forecasts by inducing variance in flight speed and direction. Fitting those behaviours into flight optimisation models proves to be challenging, and even results in significant biases in speed forecasts in spring. We conclude that flight speed is the most difficult parameter to forecast, whereas flight direction is the most critical for practical applications of these models. Such applications could e.g., be prevention of bird strikes in aviation or with wind turbines, and public engagement with bird migration.

本文介绍了三种不同的鸟类迁徙预测模型。它们都是基于物种个体的高时空分辨率（千米、15 分钟-小时）模型，是对现有基于雷达的迁徙预报模型的补充。这些模型的复杂程度各不相同，使用 GPS 跟踪的位置、飞行方向和速度以及/或风力数据来预测迁徙速度和方向。我们的目的是对预测性能进行定量评估，并评估在不同范围内哪些指标能提高预测效果。我们利用普通鹤在春季和秋季迁徙期间的 GPS 轨迹，通过交叉验证对模型进行了测试。结果表明，飞行速度和方向的记录提高了短距离（2 小时）预报的准确性。在飞行高度上添加风力数据可持续改善整个范围内的预测，尤其是在预测速度方面。方向预测受风向数据的影响较小，因为鹤类在迁徙过程中大多会补偿风的漂移。春季的迁徙比秋季更难预测，因此春季的飞行速度和方向误差更大。我们还发现，热翱翔、滑翔和拍击等飞行行为的组合会引起飞行速度和方向的变化，从而使预测变得复杂。事实证明，将这些行为纳入飞行优化模型具有挑战性，甚至会导致春季速度预报出现明显偏差。我们的结论是，飞行速度是最难预测的参数，而飞行方向则是这些模型实际应用中最关键的参数。这些应用可以是防止航空或风力涡轮机中的鸟类撞击，也可以是公众参与鸟类迁徙。

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引用次数: 0

How root-grafted trees form networks: Modeling network dynamics with pyNET 根接树如何形成网络用 pyNET 模拟网络动态

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110916

Marie-Christin Wimmler, Uta Berger

Natural root grafting is a widespread phenomenon in woody plants. While previous studies have focused on the effects of reduced growth and resource exchange at the individual level, we lack an understanding of the collective behavior of groups of grafted trees and the networks they form. Here, we present pyNET, a mechanistic agent-based model designed to explore the emergence of root graft networks. We performed simulation experiments with different scenarios involving water scarcity and different cost-benefit dynamics. Costs denote the resources required to form root grafts, while benefits denote the water redistributed among trees. Our model successfully replicates observed patterns linking structural variables to network characteristics. Specifically, we were able to reproduce observed characteristics such as grafting frequency and mean group size. In particular, we find that while the network structure is naturally strongly influenced by the size of the root system, the time and resources allocated to grafting are also critical factors. pyNET serves as a valuable tool for exploring the formation of root grafting networks under diverse environmental conditions and understanding their impact on resource competition. Our study supports theory development on the subject and hopefully stimulates further empirical studies.

自然根系嫁接是木本植物中的一种普遍现象。以往的研究主要关注个体生长和资源交换减少的影响，但我们对嫁接树木群体的集体行为及其形成的网络缺乏了解。在这里，我们介绍了 pyNET，这是一个基于机械代理的模型，旨在探索根系嫁接网络的出现。我们在不同的场景下进行了模拟实验，这些场景涉及缺水和不同的成本效益动态。成本表示形成根系嫁接所需的资源，而收益则表示在树木之间重新分配的水分。我们的模型成功地复制了观察到的结构变量与网络特征之间的关联模式。具体来说，我们能够再现观察到的特征，如嫁接频率和平均群体大小。特别是，我们发现网络结构自然会受到根系大小的强烈影响，但分配给嫁接的时间和资源也是关键因素。pyNET 是探索不同环境条件下根系嫁接网络的形成以及了解其对资源竞争的影响的重要工具。我们的研究支持了这一主题的理论发展，希望能促进进一步的实证研究。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Spatial mechanistic modelling to simulate movements and contacts between wildlife and livestock in Southern Africa” [ecological modelling 498 (2024) /110863] "模拟南部非洲野生动物与牲畜之间的移动和接触的空间机制建模"[生态建模 498 (2024) /110863] 更正

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110902

Florent Rumiano , Eve Miguel , Victor Dufleit , Pascal Degenne , Cedric Gaucherel , Hugo Valls-Fox , Michel de Garine-Wichatitsky , Edson Gandiwa , Alexandre Caron , Annelise Tran

引用次数: 0

The economic impacts of living habitat changes in the Virginia Middle Peninsula, Chesapeake Bay 切萨皮克湾弗吉尼亚中半岛生物栖息地变化的经济影响

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110914

Matthew S. Woodstock , Amanda T. Bevans , Muhammad Sulyman , James Maples , Scott Knoche , Thomas F. Ihde

Living habitats support ecologically and commercially important species but are threatened by anthropogenic stressors, including climate change. The populations of two living habitats in the Chesapeake Bay, Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea virginica) and Eelgrass (Zostera marina), are depleted compared to historical levels, but recent Oyster restoration efforts have created new reef habitat and enhanced existing Oyster reefs. Other animals (e.g., commercially important fish and invertebrates) consume organisms that associate with these living habitats, suggesting the regional economies that rely on the commercial fishing industry may be impacted by changes in living habitat coverage. Ecosystem models were developed for two rivers that have undergone Oyster restoration in the Virginia Middle Peninsula, and simulations were conducted to estimate the potential influence that changes to living habitats may have on commercial fisheries harvests. Additionally, commercial fishers were interviewed to document expenditures needed to link ecological model estimates to an economic input-output model via IMPLAN that estimated the regional economic impacts of these changes. Increases to Oyster and Eelgrass populations are predicted to enhance commercial fisheries populations and in turn, harvests, while decreases to living habitats are predicted to have negative effect on fisheries harvests. The driving factor behind landed value trends is changes with the lucrative Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus) fishery. The primary expenses of watermen are repairs/maintenance, fuel, and bait, but greater than 37 % of the annual revenue is retained as proprietor and crew income. Oyster reef restoration alone is predicted to increase the regional economic impact of the commercial fishing industry by $1.1 M yr^-1 and support 12 more full-time jobs at the end of a 20-year simulation. Oyster restoration in combination with a continued decline of Eelgrass led to a negligible increase (∼$150 K yr^-1) in the regional economic impact. Eelgrass restoration to the current management goal without the influence of Oyster restoration is anticipated to elevate the regional economic impact to $16.8 M yr^-1 and 152 full-time jobs, and smaller increases to the Eelgrass population, relative to current levels, will still have a positive impact on the regional economy. Combined Oyster and Eelgrass restoration are predicted to enhance economic impacts to the greatest extent, while continued Eelgrass decline is likely to minimize these benefits.

生物栖息地支持着重要的生态和商业物种，但也受到人为压力因素（包括气候变化）的威胁。切萨皮克湾的两种生物栖息地--东牡蛎（Crassostrea virginica）和鳗草（Zostera marina）--的数量与历史水平相比已经枯竭，但最近的牡蛎恢复工作创造了新的礁石栖息地，并增强了现有的牡蛎礁。其他动物（如具有重要商业价值的鱼类和无脊椎动物）食用与这些生物栖息地相关的生物，这表明依赖于商业捕鱼业的区域经济可能会受到生物栖息地覆盖率变化的影响。我们为弗吉尼亚中南半岛两条经过牡蛎修复的河流建立了生态系统模型，并进行了模拟，以估计生物栖息地的变化可能对商业渔业收成产生的潜在影响。此外，还对商业渔民进行了访谈，以记录将生态模型估计值与通过 IMPLAN 估算这些变化对区域经济影响的经济投入产出模型联系起来所需的支出。据预测，牡蛎和 Eelgrass 数量的增加将提高商业渔业数量，进而提高渔获量，而生物栖息地数量的减少将对渔获量产生负面影响。上岸价值趋势背后的驱动因素是利润丰厚的蓝蟹（Callinectes sapidus）渔业的变化。水上居民的主要支出是修理/维护、燃料和鱼饵，但每年超过 37% 的收入是作为业主和船员的收入。据预测，在 20 年模拟期结束时，仅牡蛎礁恢复一项就可将商业捕鱼业的区域经济影响提高 110 万美元/年，并增加 12 个全职工作岗位。牡蛎恢复与 Eelgrass 的持续衰退相结合，对区域经济影响的增加可忽略不计（1.5 亿美元/年-1）。在没有牡蛎影响的情况下，将黄颡草恢复到当前的管理目标，预计对区域经济的影响将提高到 1,680 万美元/年-1 和 152 个全职工作岗位，相对于当前水平，黄颡草数量的较小增长仍将对区域经济产生积极影响。据预测，牡蛎和黄颡鱼的联合恢复将在最大程度上提高经济影响，而黄颡鱼的持续减少可能会将这些效益降至最低。

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引用次数: 0

Variations on the maximum density-size lines to climate and site factors for Larix spp. plantations in northeast China 中国东北地区最大密度-大小线与气候和地点因素的关系

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110913

Lingbo Dong , Guanmou Chen , Woodam Chung , Zhaogang Liu

The maximum density-size line (MDSL) is a valuable tool in sustainable forest management, as it shows the relationship between site occupancy measures and mean tree size on a log-log scale. However, the responses of MDSLs to different climate and site variables still need to be clarified. Thus, this study aimed to assess the potential effects of various climate- and site-related factors on the slopes and intercepts of MDSLs for Larix spp. plantations in northeast China. The parameters of MDSLs were estimated using stochastic frontier regression (SFR) with three different error distribution assumptions, namely half-normal distribution (HN), exponential distribution (ED), and truncated-normal distribution (TN). Spatial distributions of maximum stand density index (SDI_max) were mapped under different climate scenarios (RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5, and RCP2.6). The results revealed that the slopes on MDSLs without covariates were significantly shallower than Reineke's slope (−1.605), ranging from −1.2485 to −1.2026. Of the 22 covariates considered, 13 variables on SFR-HN and SFR-TN and 16 variables on SFR-ED had significant influences on MDSLs. The optimal MDSL model, including mean annual temperature (MAT) and soil pH as covariates using a HN assumption, decreased the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) by approximately 7.76%. The results also indicated that increasing MAT significantly reduced the maximum stand density for stands with a natural logarithm of quadratic mean diameter [ln(QMD)] below 2.6, while consistent increases were observed over the entire ln(QMD) range for soil pH. Moreover, the mean SDI_max within the whole region increased significantly from 15.04% under RCP4.5 to 27.78% under RCP8.5. These findings emphasize the significant influences of climate and site conditions on the MDSL, thereby calibrating on traditional density management strategies may contribute significantly on carbon sequestration capacity of forests in the face of climate change.

最大密度-大小线（MDSL）是可持续森林管理的重要工具，因为它以对数-对数尺度显示了林地占有率测量值与平均树木大小之间的关系。然而，MDSL 对不同气候和地点变量的响应仍有待澄清。因此，本研究旨在评估与气候和地点相关的各种因素对中国东北地区杉木人工林 MDSLs 的斜率和截距的潜在影响。采用随机前沿回归法（SFR）估算了MDSL的参数，并假设了三种不同的误差分布，即半正态分布（HN）、指数分布（ED）和截断正态分布（TN）。绘制了不同气候情景（RCP 8.5、RCP 4.5 和 RCP2.6）下最大林分密度指数（SDImax）的空间分布图。结果表明，不考虑协变量的 MDSL 的斜率明显浅于 Reineke 的斜率（-1.605），范围在-1.2485 至-1.2026 之间。在考虑的 22 个协变量中，SFR-HN 和 SFR-TN 的 13 个变量以及 SFR-ED 的 16 个变量对 MDSL 有显著影响。采用 HN 假设，将年平均温度（MAT）和土壤 pH 值作为协变量的最佳 MDSL 模型，使 Akaike 信息准则（AIC）降低了约 7.76%。结果还表明，对于二次平均直径自然对数[ln(QMD)]低于 2.6 的林分，增加 MAT 会显著降低最大林分密度，而在整个 ln(QMD)范围内，土壤 pH 值会持续增加。此外，整个区域的平均 SDImax 从 RCP4.5 下的 15.04% 显著增加到 RCP8.5 下的 27.78%。这些发现强调了气候和地点条件对MDSL的重要影响，因此，校准传统的密度管理策略可能对气候变化下的森林碳固存能力做出重大贡献。

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引用次数: 0

A new cellular automata framework of urban growth modeling by incorporating land use policies and economic development zone planning 结合土地利用政策和经济开发区规划的城市增长建模新细胞自动机框架

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110908

Haoran Zeng , Haijun Wang , Bin Zhang , Youcheng Song , Xiaoxu Cao , Qiyuan Li

The development of cities is frequently influenced by policies and planning. One of the significant challenges in urban cellular automata (CA) modeling research is accurately quantifying these influences in order to incorporate them reasonably into models. This study proposes a novel urban CA framework that incorporates three key elements: (1) Utilizing the results of dual evaluation of territorial space as the development suitability within the CA model, (2) Integrating the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and affinity propagation (AP) clustering algorithm with the CA model, combined with the delineation of economic development zones, to achieve synchronous simulation of multimodal urban growth, (3) Conducting multi-scenario predictions in conjunction with farmland and ecological protection policies to identify the degree of coordination and conflict areas among various policies. The framework assesses the influence of land use policies and economic development zone planning on prospective urban growth. It is capable of simulating enclave-style growth urban growth, thereby extending its utility in practical applications. Taking Wuhan as a case study, we employ the proposed CA framework to forecast the urban spatial pattern in 2035. This can provide a scientific basis for the formulation and improvement of future policies and planning in Wuhan, thereby contributing to informed decision-making and sustainable urban development.

城市的发展经常受到政策和规划的影响。城市蜂窝自动机（CA）建模研究的重大挑战之一是准确量化这些影响因素，以便将其合理地纳入模型。本研究提出了一个新颖的城市细胞自动机框架，其中包含三个关键要素：(1）在 CA 模型中利用地域空间双重评价结果作为发展适宜性；（2）将最大熵（MaxEnt）模型和亲和传播（AP）聚类算法与 CA 模型相结合，结合经济开发区的划分，实现多模式城市增长的同步模拟；（3）结合耕地和生态保护政策进行多情景预测，以确定各种政策之间的协调程度和冲突区域。该框架评估了土地利用政策和经济开发区规划对未来城市增长的影响。它能够模拟飞地式增长的城市增长，从而扩大了其在实际应用中的效用。以武汉市为例，我们运用提出的 CA 框架预测了 2035 年的城市空间格局。这可以为武汉市未来政策和规划的制定和完善提供科学依据，从而为明智决策和城市可持续发展做出贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Towards a liana plant functional type for vegetation models 为植被模型建立藤本植物功能类型

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110901

Hans Verbeeck , Hannes P.T. De Deurwaerder , Elizabeth Kearsley , Sruthi M.Krishna Moorthy , Francis Mumbanza Mundondo , Kasper Coppieters , Stefan A. Schnitzer , Marcos Longo , Marc Peaucelle , Marijn Bauters , Félicien Meunier

Lianas (woody climbers) are crucial components of tropical forests and they have been increasingly recognized to have profound effects on tropical forest carbon dynamics. Despite their importance, lianas' representation in vegetation models remains limited, partly due to the complexity of liana-tree dynamics and the diversity in liana life history strategies. This paper provides a comprehensive review of advances and challenges for mechanistically representing lianas in forest ecosystem models and a proposed path towards effectively representing lianas in these models.

Defining a liana plant functional type is a significant challenge because of the high morphological and physiological diversity amongst liana species, and because of their structural association with trees. Here, we identify critical liana traits that likely should contribute to establishing a liana plant functional type, along with key processes to properly represent lianas in ecosystem models. Subsequently, we discuss a variety of possible liana implementation strategies with their associated strengths, limitations, computational costs and data requirements. A fundamental redesign of the tree-centric demographic vegetation models seems appropriate to accommodate the unique growth and competition strategies of lianas. We illustrate the potential of such models with a single-site case study where we disentangle putative mechanisms of liana increasing abundance. Furthermore, we underscore the critical need for comprehensive liana demographic and functional data (including long-term, physiological, and pantropical observations) for the qualitative implementation and evaluation in the proposed modeling efforts. Currently, there is a scarcity of liana data and the data that do exist have a neotropical bias. We finally introduce a new liana functional trait database that can centralize existing liana trait data, incentivize improved data gathering and thus facilitate model development and scientific analyses.

藤本植物（木质攀援植物）是热带森林的重要组成部分，人们越来越认识到它们对热带森林碳动态的深远影响。尽管藤本植物非常重要，但其在植被模型中的代表性仍然有限，部分原因是藤本植物-树木动态的复杂性和藤本植物生活史策略的多样性。本文全面回顾了在森林生态系统模型中从机理上表现藤本植物所取得的进展和面临的挑战，并提出了在这些模型中有效表现藤本植物的路径。由于藤本植物物种在形态和生理上的高度多样性，以及它们与树木的结构关联，定义藤本植物的功能类型是一项重大挑战。在此，我们确定了可能有助于建立藤本植物功能类型的关键藤本植物特征，以及在生态系统模型中正确表示藤本植物的关键过程。随后，我们将讨论各种可能的藤本植物实施策略及其相关优势、局限性、计算成本和数据要求。从根本上重新设计以树木为中心的人口植被模型，以适应藤本植物独特的生长和竞争策略，似乎是合适的。我们通过一个单一地点的案例研究来说明此类模型的潜力，并在此研究中揭示了藤本植物丰度增加的假定机制。此外，我们强调迫切需要全面的藤本植物人口和功能数据（包括长期、生理和泛热带观测数据），以便在拟议的建模工作中进行定性实施和评估。目前，藤本植物数据稀缺，现有数据也偏向于新热带地区。最后，我们介绍了一个新的藤本植物功能性状数据库，该数据库可以集中现有的藤本植物性状数据，鼓励改进数据收集工作，从而促进模型开发和科学分析。

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引用次数: 0

Identifying optimal cloud cover for enhanced forest carbon uptake: Periodic-case NEE-overshoot modelling 确定增强森林碳吸收的最佳云层：周期性近地电荷-过冲建模

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110904

Sergey N Kivalov

On certain kinds of cloudy days, many forested ecosystems exhibit enhanced carbon uptake and water-use efficiency-the cloudy-day forest flux anomaly. Using ensemble methods to analyze eddy-covariance fluxes, we have diagnosed net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and water-use efficiency (WUE) of a temperate broadleaf forest and a tropical evergreen forest as they responded to natural fluctuating-light regimes. Here we apply average NEE and evapotranspiration solutions of a first-order dynamic model to describe the observed whole-canopy sensitivity to periodic light. On partly-cloudy days, maximum overall NEE enhancements over conventional steady-state equilibrium estimates are ≈ 25% for a midlatitude deciduous forest and ≈ 15% for a tropical evergreen forest. This finding supports our conclusion that in many cases the cloudy-day anomaly is a consequence of a dynamic response by the trees responding to fluctuating-light regimes occasioned by passing cumulus clouds.

在某些阴天，许多森林生态系统的碳吸收和水利用效率都会提高，这就是阴天森林通量异常。利用集合方法分析涡度-协方差通量，我们诊断了温带阔叶林和热带常绿林的净生态系统交换（NEE）和水分利用效率（WUE）对自然波动光照制度的响应。在此，我们采用一阶动态模型的平均净射强度和蒸散量解决方案来描述观测到的整个树冠对周期性光照的敏感性。在部分阴天，与传统的稳态平衡估计值相比，中纬度落叶林和热带常绿林的最大总净能效增幅分别为≈25%和≈15%。这一发现支持了我们的结论，即在许多情况下，阴天异常是树木对积云经过时引起的光照波动机制做出动态响应的结果。

引用次数: 0

Exploring the optimal fuzzy rule-based modeling procedure to assess habitat suitability of indicator Collembola species in forest soils 探索基于模糊规则的最佳建模程序，以评估森林土壤中指示性褶虫物种的栖息地适宜性

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110903

Yongeun Kim , Yun-Sik Lee , Minyoung Lee , June Wee , Jinsol Hong , Kijong Cho

In the face of escalating anthropogenic fragmentation and habitat destruction, research on soil habitat disturbance using indicator species is increasingly critical to conserve and maintain the ecological functions of forest ecosystems. The modeling methodology for habitat suitability is a valuable tool for assessing habitat conditions based on the ecological preferences of indicator species; however, its application to such species in forest soils remains unexplored. Therefore, this study aimed to fill this gap by identifying an optimal procedure for developing a fuzzy model to evaluate the habitat suitability of indicator species based on their abundance classes. Fuzzy models were developed for assessing the habitat suitability of Folsomia quadrioculata and F. octoculata based on data collected from seven mountains using three types of selected variable numbers (3-, 4-, and 5-variable) for two input variable selection methods (statistics-based variable selection, SVS; knowledge-based variable selection, KVS), and their performance was compared. Our results indicate that the SVS-fuzzy model performed better than the KVS-fuzzy model in both the model training and testing phases. As the number of input variables increased, the performance of the KVS-fuzzy model improved; however, it still exhibited lower performance compared to the SVS-fuzzy model. Meanwhile, the optimal SVS-fuzzy model effectively explained the abundance classes of the two collembolan species based on the environmental conditions of their habitats (F1 score > 0.743, Matthews correlation coefficient > 0.520). The findings of this study provide a solid foundation for developing effective models to understand the habitat suitability of soil indicator species. Expanding the application of fuzzy modeling to diverse species in forest soils will improve our understanding of habitat disturbance and degradation, contributing to the development of conservation strategies for forest ecosystems.

面对不断加剧的人为破碎化和栖息地破坏，利用指示物种对土壤栖息地干扰进行研究对于保护和维持森林生态系统的生态功能日益重要。栖息地适宜性建模方法是根据指示物种的生态偏好评估栖息地条件的重要工具，但其在森林土壤中对此类物种的应用仍有待探索。因此，本研究旨在根据指示物种的丰度等级，确定开发模糊模型以评估其生境适宜性的最佳程序，从而填补这一空白。根据从七座山区收集到的数据，使用三种类型的选定变量数（3变量、4变量和5变量）和两种输入变量选择方法（基于统计的变量选择，SVS；基于知识的变量选择，KVS），建立了评估四叶福寿花和八叶福寿花栖息地适宜性的模糊模型，并比较了它们的性能。结果表明，在模型训练和测试阶段，SVS-模糊模型的性能均优于 KVS-模糊模型。随着输入变量数量的增加，KVS-模糊模型的性能有所提高，但与 SVS-模糊模型相比，其性能仍然较低。同时，最优 SVS 模糊模型有效地解释了基于栖息地环境条件的两种藻类的丰度等级（F1 分数为 0.743，马修斯相关系数为 0.520）。这项研究的结果为建立有效的模型来了解土壤指示物种的栖息地适宜性奠定了坚实的基础。将模糊建模的应用范围扩大到森林土壤中的各种物种，将提高我们对生境干扰和退化的认识，有助于制定森林生态系统保护战略。

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引用次数: 0