Ecological Modelling最新文献_第4页

The aerobic scope is clearly linked to the supply–demand spectrum as quantified by DEB theory 有氧范围显然与由DEB理论量化的供需谱相关联

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111479

Christine E. Verhille , Sebastiaan A.L.M. Kooijman

Supply-species typically eat what is available, while demand-species eat what they need, almost independently of what is available. The trait ‘supply stress’ quantifies the supply–demand spectrum, in the context of the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory. This dimensionless trait is defined as the maturity maintenance times the squared somatic maintenance, divided by the cubed assimilation. This function of DEB parameters is mostly estimated from data on growth, reproduction and life history, typically applied for fully grown individuals. Only a minority of the over 7300 species in the Add-my-Pet collection also have respiration data, combined with other data. Consistent with a set of traits that characterizes the supply/demand spectrum, birds and mammals score high on the supply stress, reptiles, amphibians, cartilaginous fish score moderate and ray-finned fish and invertebrates score low. The structure of the standard DEB model explains why species must have a low supply stress to allocate a large fraction of their assimilation to reproduction. We show this for large taxa, but also for rodents, compared to carnivorans, where rodents have a lower position in the food chain. We list and discuss ecophysiological properties that characterize the spectrum. A decade ago, the factorial aerobic scope (FAS), i.e. the ratio of the maximum and basal metabolic rate (MMR and BMR), was predicted to be high for species at the demand-end of the spectrum, and low for those at the supply-end. The aim of this paper is to test this prediction for respiration data from the literature. Our conclusion is that the FAS indeed increases for increasing supply stress, but the scatter is substantial. The FAS roughly increases from 3.2 at zero supply stress to 32 at maximum supply stress. We discuss an application of this finding for the estimation of the maturity maintenance rate coefficient from data, which is otherwise difficult with simple data. We also discuss the large scatter of respiration rates and show, with a computer simulation study of the standard DEB model, that a little scatter in food intake translates into a much larger scatter of respiration rates. Despite the scatter, the measured BMR was found to be close to the DEB-predicted field metabolic rate. This is remarkable because DEB theory makes no direct assumptions about respiration, but can still predict it exploiting the conservation laws for the chemical elements C, H, O and N. Our findings not only suggest functionalities of the aerobic scope in a wider context, but also support the concept of maturity maintenance, which is key to DEB theory, but hard to make concrete.

供给型物种通常吃能得到的食物，而需求型物种吃它们需要的食物，几乎与能得到的食物无关。在动态能源预算（DEB）理论的背景下，“供应压力”特征量化了供需谱。这种无量纲特性被定义为成熟度维持乘以体细胞维持的平方，除以同化的立方。DEB参数的这个函数主要是根据生长、繁殖和生活史的数据估计的，通常适用于完全成年的个体。在Add-my-Pet收集的7300多个物种中，只有少数物种结合其他数据也有呼吸数据。与一系列表征供需谱的特征一致，鸟类和哺乳动物在供应压力上得分较高，爬行动物、两栖动物、软骨鱼得分中等，鳐鱼和无脊椎动物得分较低。标准DEB模型的结构解释了为什么物种必须有较低的供应压力才能将同化的大部分分配给繁殖。我们在大型类群中也展示了这一点，但与食肉动物相比，啮齿动物在食物链中处于较低的位置。我们列出并讨论表征光谱的生态生理特性。十年前，因子有氧范围（FAS），即最大代谢率和基础代谢率（MMR和BMR）之比，预测在光谱的需求端物种高，而在供应端物种低。本文的目的是对文献中呼吸数据的预测进行检验。我们的结论是，FAS确实随着供应压力的增加而增加，但分散是实质性的。FAS大致从零供应压力时的3.2增加到最大供应压力时的32。我们讨论了这一发现在从数据中估计成熟度维持率系数的应用，否则在简单数据中很难估计。我们还讨论了呼吸速率的大分散，并通过对标准DEB模型的计算机模拟研究表明，食物摄入的小分散会转化为呼吸速率的大分散。尽管存在分散，但发现测量的BMR与deb预测的场代谢率接近。这是值得注意的，因为DEB理论没有直接假设呼吸作用，但仍然可以利用化学元素C、H、O和n的守恒定律来预测呼吸作用。我们的发现不仅表明了有氧作用范围在更广泛的背景下的功能，而且还支持成熟度维持的概念，这是DEB理论的关键，但很难具体化。

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引用次数: 0

Indicators for lake environmental assessment considering water quality and biological resources: Analysis using a food chain model with the Monte Carlo method 考虑水质和生物资源的湖泊环境评价指标：基于蒙特卡罗方法的食物链模型分析

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111455

Yuichi Sato, Kazuhide Hayakawa

Lakes are globally important freshwater resources, and their sustainable management requires not only controlling eutrophication but also maintaining biological productivity and ecosystem health. In this study, we proposed a statistical method to analyze the relationships among indicators of water quality and biological resources using a food chain model combined with the Monte Carlo method. This approach overcomes the limitations of conventional mathematical models, specifically their dependence on unknown parameters and the resulting uncertainty. The method was applied to Lake Biwa to identify indicators that contribute to both water quality improvement and enhancement of biological resources including fish stocks. The results showed that the biomass ratio of planktivorous fish to phytoplankton and the integrated trophic position (iTP) were positively associated with higher trophic transfer efficiencies (TE), indicating the importance of efficient energy flow through the food chain. A higher phosphorus-to-carbon (P:C) ratio in phytoplankton was also linked to improved fish biomass and water clarity. In contrast, dissolved phosphorus (DP) concentration showed no clear relationship with phytoplankton biomass and did not serve as a useful predictor under stable nutrient loading conditions. When a 1.5-fold increase in DP loading was simulated, changes in biomass and nutrient concentrations were small, suggesting that internal nutrient recycling plays a dominant role in the phosphorus dynamics in Lake Biwa. Therefore, simply increasing nutrient inputs to enhance fish biomass is unlikely to produce the desired effects.

湖泊是全球重要的淡水资源，湖泊的可持续管理不仅需要控制富营养化，还需要保持生物生产力和生态系统健康。本研究提出了一种利用食物链模型与蒙特卡罗方法相结合的统计方法来分析水质指标与生物资源之间的关系。这种方法克服了传统数学模型的局限性，特别是它们对未知参数的依赖和由此产生的不确定性。将该方法应用于琵琶湖，以确定有助于改善水质和增加包括鱼类在内的生物资源的指标。结果表明，浮游鱼类与浮游植物的生物量比和综合营养位置（iTP）与更高的营养转移效率（TE）呈正相关，表明有效的能量流在食物链中的重要性。浮游植物中较高的磷碳比（P:C）也与改善鱼类生物量和水的清晰度有关。相比之下，溶解磷（DP）浓度与浮游植物生物量没有明显的关系，在稳定的养分负荷条件下不能作为有效的预测因子。当DP负荷增加1.5倍时，生物量和养分浓度变化不大，表明营养物内部循环在琵琶湖磷动态中起主导作用。因此，仅仅增加营养投入以提高鱼类生物量不太可能产生预期的效果。

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引用次数: 0

Novel functional dissimilarity measures bridging species- and trait-based community analyses 基于物种和性状的新型功能差异测量方法

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111492

Dénes Schmera , Carlo Ricotta , János Podani

Quantifying dissimilarity between ecological communities is fundamental to functional community ecology. In this study, we develop a conceptual and analytical framework that integrates species-based and trait-based dissimilarity measures. The core of the proposed approach involves two steps: the first computes the products of species abundances and trait values, while the second combines products into aggregated trait abundances (ATAs) for use in both species- and trait-based analyses. Building upon the additive decomposition of the Marczewski-Steinhaus and Bray-Curtis indices into difference and replacement components, we introduce a suite of novel methods that allow for the independent weighting of species abundances and trait values. We first detail the methodology and elucidate its conceptual foundations. Subsequently, we assess its performance using both illustrative toy examples and ecologically realistic simulated datasets. To demonstrate its practical utility, we apply the method to compare macroinvertebrate assemblages from natural and anthropogenically impacted stream sections. Our findings indicate that the proposed framework provides a continuum between traditional species-based and trait-based approaches. Finally, we offer practical guidance for ecologists on selecting the most appropriate dissimilarity measure based on specific research objectives and data characteristics.

生态群落间差异性的量化是功能群落生态学研究的基础。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个概念和分析框架，整合了基于物种和基于性状的差异测量。该方法的核心包括两个步骤：第一步计算物种丰度和性状值的乘积，第二步将乘积组合成聚合性状丰度（ATAs），用于基于物种和基于性状的分析。在Marczewski-Steinhaus指数和Bray-Curtis指数相加分解为差异分量和替代分量的基础上，我们引入了一套允许物种丰度和性状值独立加权的新方法。我们首先详细介绍了方法论并阐明了其概念基础。随后，我们使用说明性玩具示例和生态逼真的模拟数据集评估其性能。为了证明其实际效用，我们应用该方法比较了来自自然和人为影响的河流断面的大型无脊椎动物组合。我们的研究结果表明，提出的框架提供了传统的基于物种和基于性状的方法之间的连续体。最后，我们为生态学家根据具体的研究目标和数据特征选择最合适的差异度量提供了实践指导。

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引用次数: 0

A semi-automated sensitivity-based approach for simplifying marine biogeochemical models for targeted applications: A case study with the Eco3M-MED model 一种基于灵敏度的半自动方法，用于简化目标应用的海洋生物地球化学模型：以Eco3M-MED模型为例研究

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111491

Yutong Zhang , Melika Baklouti , Pierre Brasseur , Laurent Debreu

Marine biogeochemical models are being increasingly used to support scenario-based analyses of climate change and ecosystem dynamics. However, their high structural complexity and large parameter space often limit computational efficiency, interpretability, and adaptability in applications requiring the exploration of many scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a Semi-Automated Iterative Simplification (SAIS) approach that integrates local sensitivity analysis with model mechanistic guidance and Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metrics to evaluate each simplification step. Using the marine biogeochemical model Eco3M-MED as an example, we specified three objectives for model simplification: (1) fidelity of state variables, (2) fidelity of marine ecosystem indicators, and (3) applicability for coupling with higher trophic level models. For each objective, we assessed model sensitivity to parameters and applied the SAIS approach to simplify the model, and obtained three simplified models. KGE-based fidelity evaluations are used to validate each final simplified model against the reference model. The results show that computational time can be reduced by up to approximately 30% without compromising the model’s mechanistic foundation. Overall, this method offers a flexible and scalable approach for generating simplified versions of complex biogeochemical models, suitable for applications in regional marine ecosystem assessments, climate scenario explorations, and model coupling frameworks.

海洋生物地球化学模型正越来越多地用于支持基于情景的气候变化和生态系统动力学分析。然而，在需要探索多种场景的应用中，它们的高结构复杂性和大参数空间往往限制了计算效率、可解释性和适应性。为了解决这些问题，我们提出了一种半自动迭代简化（SAIS）方法，该方法将局部敏感性分析与模型机制指导和克林-古普塔效率（KGE）指标相结合，以评估每个简化步骤。以海洋生物地球化学模型Eco3M-MED为例，我们提出了模型简化的三个目标：(1)状态变量的保真度；(2)海洋生态系统指标的保真度；(3)与高营养级模型耦合的适用性。对于每个目标，我们评估了模型对参数的敏感性，并应用SAIS方法对模型进行了简化，得到了三个简化模型。基于kge的保真度评估用于根据参考模型验证每个最终简化模型。结果表明，在不影响模型的力学基础的情况下，计算时间可减少约30%。总体而言，该方法为生成复杂生物地球化学模型的简化版本提供了一种灵活且可扩展的方法，适用于区域海洋生态系统评估、气候情景探索和模型耦合框架。

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引用次数: 0

Non-detection by citizen scientists modeled as a function of visit characteristics 公民科学家的非检测建模为访问特征的函数

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111474

Gert W. Jacobusse , Eelke Jongejans

Citizen science is an increasingly valuable source of information about biodiversity. It is challenging to use this information for analysis of distribution and trends. The lack of a protocol leads to observation bias due to unequal detection and reporting probabilities, caused by different preferences and habits of citizen scientists. With an immediate focus on occupancy, it is hard to extract value from citizen science data because of such observation bias. We propose to incorporate multiple characteristics of excursions in analyses of data collected by citizen scientists to improve estimates of the probability that a species is not detected and reported, even though it does occur. By limiting these models to areas that are known to be occupied, detection can be modeled separately without considering variation in occupancy. We apply this idea to 150 common species in the Southwest Delta of The Netherlands, and illustrate the data selection, modeling process and results using four species. The strongest features to predict detection are the number of species reported during a visit (list length), earlier observations of the target species by the same observer, and the day of year. We compare three approaches to predict the probability that a species is not detected during any of the visits to an area. Predictions based on only the number of visits were outperformed by predictions that also take the list length into account. Predictions based on all features combined consistently beat both other approaches, across all 10 species groups that were compared. We thus show that explicitly modelling the characteristics of all visits to an occupied area results in estimation of non-detection probabilities, while providing insight into the causes of detection and reporting bias. Like in occupancy models, predictions of our model can be combined per area to update occupancy estimates and thereby correct bias in citizen science data when aiming to map a species’ distribution.

公民科学是关于生物多样性的一个越来越有价值的信息来源。使用这些信息来分析分布和趋势是具有挑战性的。由于公民科学家的不同偏好和习惯，由于不平等的检测和报告概率，导致缺乏协议导致观察偏差。由于直接关注入住率，由于这种观察偏差，很难从公民科学数据中提取价值。我们建议在对公民科学家收集的数据进行分析时纳入远足的多种特征，以提高对物种未被发现和报告的概率的估计，即使它确实发生了。通过将这些模型限制在已知被占用的区域，检测可以单独建模，而不考虑占用的变化。我们将这一想法应用于荷兰西南三角洲150个常见物种，并以4个物种为例说明了数据的选择、建模过程和结果。预测检测的最强特征是在访问期间报告的物种数量（列表长度），同一观测者对目标物种的早期观察以及一年中的哪一天。我们比较了三种方法来预测在任何访问一个地区期间未检测到物种的概率。仅基于访问量的预测结果优于同时考虑列表长度的预测结果。在比较的所有10个物种组中，基于所有特征组合的预测始终优于其他两种方法。因此，我们表明，明确建模所有访问被占领地区的特征导致估计未检测概率，同时提供洞察检测和报告偏差的原因。就像在占用模型中一样，我们的模型的预测可以结合每个区域来更新占用估计，从而在绘制物种分布图时纠正公民科学数据中的偏见。

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引用次数: 0

Wildfire hazard modelling in the Ahafo Region of Ghana using GIS–based Multi- criteria decision-making analysis 利用基于gis的多准则决策分析在加纳阿哈福地区建立野火灾害模型

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111494

Mary Antwi , Camila Sanyarebeka , Emmanuel Abisah Adu , Solomon Akubire Afour

Forest fire is a devastating phenomenon that causes huge losses of lives, properties, and ecologies, especially in peri‑urban settlements. This study investigates forest fires to identify, classify, and map hazard areas and aid decision-making during interventions and management in the Ahafo Region of Ghana. The assessment considered five risk sub-models i.e. ignition, detection, response, fuel, and climate factor models in an integrated GIS-MCDA model and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Twelve factor criteria were selected for the wildfire modelling considering their relative importance to wildfire as well as other related characteristics. The final wildfire hazard map was subsequently created by utilizing ArcMap 10.8 weighted sum technique to construct and integrate each of the five sub-models. Results from the analysis revealed that, approximately an area of 2257.36 km² was found to be under high to very high fuel risk, representing 43.5% whereas the high ignition risk areas within the forest cover a total area of 4480.4 km² representing 86.3% of the study area. A large extent of the area covers moderate to very low response zones and constitutes a total area of 4762.7 km² being 91.7% of the study area. The detection risk model suggests that visible areas constitute a total area of 4257.4km² (82%), while obscured areas occupy the remaining 935.7km² (18%). The resultant final wildfire hazard map indicates that the northeastern portion of the study area has a high fire hazard potential and covers an area of approximately 2856.2 km² representing 55% of the total area. The results from the study imply that the forest ecology of the Ahafo region is under high threats of wildfire. The study recommends that the National Disaster Management Organization and Ghana National Fire Service should employ wildfire hazard maps to aid fire management and decision-making on interventions for optimal fire control.

森林火灾是一种破坏性现象，造成巨大的生命、财产和生态损失，尤其是在城市周边住区。本研究调查了加纳阿哈福地区的森林火灾，以确定、分类和绘制危险区域，并为干预和管理期间的决策提供帮助。该评估综合考虑了GIS-MCDA模型和层次分析法（AHP）中的着火、检测、响应、燃料和气候因子五个风险子模型。考虑到它们对野火以及其他相关特征的相对重要性，为野火建模选择了12个因素标准。最后利用ArcMap 10.8加权求和技术对5个子模型进行构建和整合，得到最终的野火灾害图。结果表明，森林内高至极高火险区面积约为2257.36 km2，占43.5%；森林内高火险区面积为4480.4 km2，占86.3%。区内大部分为中至极低响应区，总面积4762.7 km2，占研究区面积的91.7%。检测风险模型表明，可见区域占总面积4257.4km2(82%)，而遮挡区域占剩余的935.7km2（18%）。结果表明，研究区东北部具有较高的火灾危险性，面积约为2856.2 km2，占总面积的55%。研究结果表明，阿哈福地区的森林生态面临着严重的野火威胁。该研究建议，国家灾害管理组织和加纳国家消防局应该使用野火危险地图来帮助火灾管理和决策，以实现最佳的火灾控制。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of herd shape and delay in a two strain prey–predator model 两种食饵-捕食模型中兽群形状和延迟的影响

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111463

Sanskriti Jain , Balram Dubey , Qianqian Zheng , Pankaj Mathur , Vikas Pandey

In the present study, a novel two-strain eco-epidemiological SIS-type model with mass-action incidence rates is developed. In this model, we assumed that only healthy prey form herds, which not only limits predator access but may also injure or kill predators. Basic reproduction numbers for both strains derived, demonstrate that, despite differing values, the system permits coexistence of both infection strains. The numerical simulation demonstrates that certain herd formation and predator mortality thresholds eliminate one strain while the other strain persists, implying they have an inhibitory effect on strain persistence. In some cases, one strain may dominate over the other, similar to observations in avian influenza virus dynamics. The dynamics are investigated both with and without delay. Bifurcation analysis of the model without delay reveals critical thresholds for herd shape and predator mortality, leading to stable limit cycles, collapse, or extinction. Generalized Hopf (GH) bifurcations are observed in the

(k - e_{1})

parameter space, along with associated limit points of cycles (LPC), revealing complex dynamics and bistability under two-strain infection. Introducing delay induces further instability through new Hopf bifurcations, highlighting the role of time lags in population stability. These results underscore the interplay of herd effects with two-strain infection, demonstrating coexistence and the destabilizing influence of delays.

本文建立了一种具有质量作用发生率的新型双菌株sis型生态流行病学模型。在这个模型中，我们假设只有健康的猎物形成兽群，这不仅限制了捕食者的进入，而且可能伤害或杀死捕食者。这两种菌株的基本繁殖数表明，尽管数值不同，但该系统允许两种感染菌株共存。数值模拟表明，一定的种群形成和捕食者死亡率阈值消除了一个菌株，而另一个菌株继续存在，这表明它们对菌株的持久性有抑制作用。在某些情况下，一种毒株可能优于另一种毒株，类似于禽流感病毒动力学中的观察结果。研究了有延迟和无延迟的动力学。对模型进行无延迟分岔分析，揭示了种群形状和捕食者死亡率的临界阈值，从而导致稳定的极限环、崩溃或灭绝。在（k−e1）参数空间中观察到广义Hopf （GH）分岔，以及相关的环极限点（LPC），揭示了两株感染下的复杂动力学和双稳定性。引入延迟通过新的Hopf分岔引起进一步的不稳定性，突出了时间滞后在种群稳定性中的作用。这些结果强调了群体效应与两株感染的相互作用，证明了共存和延迟的不稳定影响。

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引用次数: 0

Estimating the yield of Parkia biglobosa fruits from field data and image-based predictive models 利用田间数据和基于图像的预测模型估算大叶枇杷果实的产量

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111497

Franklin X. Dono , Bernard N. Baatuuwie , Anne Mette Lykke , Felix K. Abagale , Peter Borgen Sørensen

Accurate estimates of tropical tree fruit yields are essential for assessing individual tree productivity and landscape-scale applications. This study examines the productivity of Parkia biglobosa pods by integrating tree morphology, vegetation health indices from drone and satellite images, and soil properties into a mathematical model. The model evaluates interactions between these factors and their contribution to yield. Fruits were harvested from 105 mature trees within three study sites in the savanna ecological zones of Ghana and weighed. The crown radius of selected trees was measured in meters from mosaics derived from drone images in QGIS. Satellite images and data on the physical and chemical soil properties were obtained from the Norway International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI) and the Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), respectively. The yield was estimated by an exponential relationship involving the tree crown radius, average blue band reflectance from satellite images, and interaction with the locality. The model explained 75 % of the variation in yield. Excluding interaction terms, the best model estimated yield from tree crown radius, average near infrared reflectance of the crown, and soil pH at 30 – 60 cm depth. It indicated that crown radius, soil pH, Blue and Near-infrared spectral characteristics, along with variations in locality, such as soil and tree management practices, influenced the yield of Parkia biglobosa. Collectively, they explained 67.8 % of the variation in the yield. Policies to control tree stand undergrowth, prevent bushfires, promote less invasive harvesting techniques, and monitor soil nitrogen and pH levels are recommended for localities to enhance tree health and productivity.

准确估计热带树木果实产量对于评估单株树木生产力和景观规模应用至关重要。本研究通过将树木形态、无人机和卫星图像的植被健康指数以及土壤特性整合到一个数学模型中，研究了大叶栎豆荚的生产力。该模型评估了这些因素之间的相互作用及其对产量的贡献。从加纳热带稀树草原生态区的三个研究地点的105棵成熟树木上收获果实并称重。所选树木的树冠半径以米为单位从QGIS中无人机图像的马赛克中测量。关于土壤物理和化学性质的卫星图像和数据分别来自挪威国际气候和森林倡议（NICFI）和土壤参考和信息中心（ISRIC）。产量是通过树冠半径、卫星图像的平均蓝带反射率以及与地点的相互作用的指数关系来估计的。该模型解释了75%的产量变化。排除相互作用项，最佳模型通过树冠半径、树冠平均近红外反射率和30 - 60 cm深度的土壤pH值来估算产量。结果表明，树冠半径、土壤pH值、蓝光谱和近红外光谱特征以及土壤和树木管理方式等地区差异影响了白桦的产量。总的来说，它们解释了67.8%的收益率变化。为提高树木健康和生产力，建议地方采取控制林下生长、防止森林火灾、推广侵入性较低的采伐技术以及监测土壤氮和pH值水平的政策。

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引用次数: 0

A collaborative, cloud-based decision support system for structured wildfire risk mitigation planning 用于结构化野火风险缓解规划的协作式、基于云的决策支持系统

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111464

Hugh Safford , Colton Miller , Danielle Perrot , Sophie Gilbert , Tyler Hoecker , Michael Koontz , Kailey Kornhauser , Matt Thompson , Joe Shannon , Nathan Rutenbeck , Joe Scott , Scott Conway , Katharyn Duffy

Multi-stakeholder planning and prioritization for ecosystem management and wildfire risk mitigation are complicated by the need to balance a multitude of values, goals, viewpoints, and interests across large landscapes. Doing so requires quantifying current conditions, defining management feasibility constraints, modeling complex system responses under different management and disturbance scenarios, quantifying outcomes in terms of social values, weighing and assessing tradeoffs, and identifying optimal strategies. Beginning in the 2010s, structured wildfire risk assessment tools were developed to provide a framework for prioritizing management actions based on wildfire hazard, ecological response, and decision-maker values. Yet, more than a decade later, operationalizing risk assessments remains challenging and limited by disconnected tooling, static data, and workflows that are difficult to scale or adapt for collaborative decision-making. Here, we present the Vibrant Planet Platform (VPP), a modular, cloud-based decision-support system that integrates fire simulation, ecological response functions, multi-objective optimization, and user input into a unified planning environment. The platform enables risk-based scenario planning across landscapes up to millions of hectares by linking validated modeling tools (e.g., FSim, FVS, ForSys) with high-resolution, up-to-date vegetation and infrastructure data. We describe the challenges inherent to operationalizing risk assessments, demonstrate how VPP addresses them through architectural and methodological design, and highlight real-world deployments in U.S. risk-exposed landscapes and communities. We outline a multi-tiered validation framework for assessing model relevance, internal coherence, predictive performance, and field alignment. VPP illustrates how structured decision-making can be operationalized at broad scales, offering a model for ecological planning tools that are rigorous, transparent, and participatory.

由于需要在大型景观中平衡多种价值观、目标、观点和利益，生态系统管理和野火风险缓解的多方利益相关者规划和优先排序变得复杂。这样做需要量化当前条件，定义管理可行性约束，模拟不同管理和干扰情景下的复杂系统响应，根据社会价值量化结果，权衡和评估权衡，并确定最佳策略。从2010年代开始，人们开发了结构化野火风险评估工具，为根据野火危害、生态响应和决策者价值观确定管理行动的优先次序提供了一个框架。然而，十多年后，操作风险评估仍然具有挑战性，并且受到断开的工具、静态数据和难以扩展或适应协作决策的工作流程的限制。在这里，我们提出了活力星球平台（VPP），这是一个基于云的模块化决策支持系统，将火灾模拟、生态响应功能、多目标优化和用户输入集成到统一的规划环境中。该平台通过将经过验证的建模工具（如FSim、FVS、ForSys）与高分辨率、最新的植被和基础设施数据联系起来，实现了基于风险的场景规划，覆盖面积可达数百万公顷。我们描述了实施风险评估所固有的挑战，展示了VPP如何通过架构和方法设计来解决这些挑战，并重点介绍了在美国风险暴露地区和社区的实际部署。我们概述了一个多层验证框架，用于评估模型相关性、内部一致性、预测性能和领域一致性。VPP说明了如何在大范围内实施结构化决策，为严格、透明和参与性的生态规划工具提供了一个模型。

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引用次数: 0

Structural aspects of evenness and equalness 结构方面的均匀性和平等性

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111452

Hans-Rolf Gregorius, Elizabeth M. Gillet

In ecology and evolution, measurement of uniformity or non-uniformity of variation aids in understanding adaptation and system stability. Despite the intricacy of problems addressed, a single concept and method of analysis prevails in the assessment of uniformity, namely evenness. Relevant entities of analysis, however, range from individuals, their genetic type or phenotype, pairs of these, to assemblages at various levels of organization. Entities, in turn, may be represented by frequencies/abundances, area occupied, pair differences, or diversity (of assemblages). The evenness concept views inequality in representation in terms of dominance of single entities (unevenness), but it does not cover the omnipresent phenomenon of differentness or heterogeneity as it appears in intermediate representations (unequalness). Here the concepts of evenness and equalness are expanded for application to more kinds of entities and their representations and related to common notions of equability and regularity. Beyond frequency distributions, a coherent approach to variability in similarity or difference of pairs of entities (pair differences) enables inclusion of facets of structure. Commensurability among all notions is then reached by specification of appropriate indicators and indices.

Although evenness and equalness both address ideas of uniformity, they can lead to divergent and partially unexpected but consistent conclusions in their various applications. These arise especially for dominance and heterogeneity in representation as distinct deviations from ideal uniformity. Among such conclusions are:

•

the evaluation of complex functional traits for uniformity characteristics yields partially inconsistent results when based on the evenness concept, while this inconsistency does not arise under the equalness concept;

•

equalness indices consistently quantify regularity (branching symmetry) in the topology of phylogenies, while assessment of the uniformity of branch lengths and related metric characteristics of phylogenies is largely independent of topological characteristics;

•

for clines considering difference gradients for complex characters, analysis of uniformity at different levels shows that large degrees of uniformity can be realized only when the entity representations are difference increments;

•

the evenness variant of (non-)uniformity shows little sensitivity to specifically structural characteristics.

在生态学和进化中，测量变异的均匀性或非均匀性有助于理解适应和系统稳定性。尽管所讨论的问题错综复杂，但在评价一致性时普遍采用单一的概念和分析方法，即均匀性。然而，相关的分析实体的范围从个体，他们的遗传类型或表型，对这些，在不同层次的组织组合。反过来，实体可以用频率/丰度、占用的面积、对差异或（组合的）多样性来表示。均匀性概念从单一实体的主导地位（不均匀）的角度看待表征中的不平等，但它没有涵盖在中间表征中出现的无所不在的差异或异质性现象（不平等）。这里将偶数和相等的概念扩展到更多种类的实体及其表示，并与一般的相等和正则概念相关。除了频率分布之外，对实体对的相似性或差异性（对差异）的一致性方法可以包含结构的各个方面。所有概念之间的可通约性是通过指定适当的指标和指数来实现的。尽管均匀性和平等性都涉及到一致性的概念，但它们在不同的应用中可能导致不同的、部分出乎意料的、但一致的结论。这些问题尤其出现在代表性的支配性和异质性中，因为它们明显偏离了理想的均匀性。这些结论包括：•基于均匀性概念对均匀性特征的复杂功能特征的评价结果部分不一致，而在相等性概念下则不会出现这种不一致；•相等性指数一致地量化系统发生拓扑中的规律性（分支对称性），而对系统发生分支长度的均匀性和相关度量特征的评估在很大程度上独立于拓扑特征；•对于复杂字符考虑差异梯度的曲线，不同层次的均匀性分析表明，只有当实体表示为差异增量时，才能实现大程度的均匀性；•（非）均匀性的均匀变异体对特定的结构特征几乎不敏感。

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引用次数: 0