Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"An empirically-parameterized spatio-temporal extended-SIR model for combined dilution and vaccination mitigation for rabies outbreaks in wild jackals","authors":"Teddy Lazebnik ,&nbsp;Yehuda Samuel ,&nbsp;Jonathan Tichon ,&nbsp;Roi Lapid ,&nbsp;Roni King ,&nbsp;Tomer Nissimyan ,&nbsp;Orr Spiegel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111487","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111487","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transmission of zoonotic diseases between animals and humans poses an increasing threat. Rabies is a prominent example with various instances globally. The abundance of anthropogenic resources leads to dense populations meso-predators close to human establishments. These facultative synanthropic species such as golden jackals (<em>Canis aureus</em>, hereafter jackals) facilitate the spread of rabies. To mitigate rabies outbreaks and prevent human infections, the Israeli authorities target the jackal, which is the main rabies vector in many regions, through a wide spread dissemination of oral vaccines, as well as opportunistic dilution to reduce population density in known jackals’ activity centers. Because dilution is not selective towards sick or un-vaccinated individuals, these two complementary epizootic intervention policies (EIPs, vaccination and dilution) can interfere with each other but their interactive effectiveness remains understudied, limiting their simultaneous application. In this study, we aim to address this knowledge gap by modeling the combined effect of these EIPs on rabies epizootic spread dynamics. Towards this end, we introduce a novel spatio-temporal extended-SIR (susceptible–infected–recovered) model with a graph-based spatial framework. After formulating the model, we implement it in the case study of the jackal population in northern Israel, by using spatial and movement tracking data (bio-telemetry). Realizing the model as an agent-based simulation approach allows us to explore various biologically-realistic scenarios, and assess the impact of different EIPs configurations. Our model suggests that under biologically-realistic underlying assumptions and scenarios, the effectiveness of both EIPs is not influenced much by the jackal population size but is sensitive to their dispersal between adjacent activity centers. Furthermore, we show both theoretically and empirically, that interference between the two EIPs can lead to mal-practice. Counter intuitively, there are cases in which the practice of both EIPs together actually leads to an increas in the spread of the epizootic (or endemic), due to elevated vector movement and removal of vaccinated individuals. Our findings emphasize the importance of accurately capturing the local jackal movement dynamics to obtain and predict the desired outcome from an applied EIP configuration, and the value of extended-SIR models in predicting the efficiency of realistic EIP scenarios</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111487"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forest wildfire emissions using the Canadian Fire Effects Model within the Generic Carbon Budget Model","authors":"C. Smyth ,&nbsp;M. Fellows ,&nbsp;A. Cantin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111490","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111490","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study integrated the Canadian Fire Effects Model (CanFIRE) within the Generic Carbon Budget Model (GCBM) to improve greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from future wildfires. The new framework estimates wildland fire combustion emissions and mortality using species-specific algorithms for 11 tree species. We tested this framework on a national forest carbon simulation and compared the results to a previous study that used general combustion and mortality impacts for different regions. Our findings indicate that the new framework results in higher emissions estimates, mainly from the soil organic horizon. This framework is available as a GCBM module, offering a tool for wildfire and carbon studies in dynamic landscapes and analyzing wildfire management strategies and their potential to reduce GHG emissions</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111490"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A semi-automated sensitivity-based approach for simplifying marine biogeochemical models for targeted applications: A case study with the Eco3M-MED model","authors":"Yutong Zhang ,&nbsp;Melika Baklouti ,&nbsp;Pierre Brasseur ,&nbsp;Laurent Debreu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marine biogeochemical models are being increasingly used to support scenario-based analyses of climate change and ecosystem dynamics. However, their high structural complexity and large parameter space often limit computational efficiency, interpretability, and adaptability in applications requiring the exploration of many scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a Semi-Automated Iterative Simplification (SAIS) approach that integrates local sensitivity analysis with model mechanistic guidance and Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metrics to evaluate each simplification step. Using the marine biogeochemical model Eco3M-MED as an example, we specified three objectives for model simplification: (1) fidelity of state variables, (2) fidelity of marine ecosystem indicators, and (3) applicability for coupling with higher trophic level models. For each objective, we assessed model sensitivity to parameters and applied the SAIS approach to simplify the model, and obtained three simplified models. KGE-based fidelity evaluations are used to validate each final simplified model against the reference model. The results show that computational time can be reduced by up to approximately 30% without compromising the model’s mechanistic foundation. Overall, this method offers a flexible and scalable approach for generating simplified versions of complex biogeochemical models, suitable for applications in regional marine ecosystem assessments, climate scenario explorations, and model coupling frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111491"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrated emergy and exergy research through co-citation analysis: Knowledge bases, evolutionary trajectories and frontier frameworks","authors":"Xiumei Xu ,&nbsp;Jun Lyu ,&nbsp;Bowen Zhan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111475","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The integrated research of emergy and exergy has promoted the innovation and development of eco-thermodynamics and eco-economics. The aim of this study is to investigate the research hotspots, frontiers, evolution paths, and inflection points of the integrated studies on emergy and exergy, by using a bibliometric approach and the database of Web of Science (WoS) (1995–2025). The results reveal the following: (1) six interlinked knowledge bases, i.e., ecological thermodynamic accounting, advanced energy systems, hybrid LCA–emergy frameworks, wetland eco-engineering, industrial metabolism, and marine natural capital assessment constitute the theoretical pillars of the field; (2) research content evolves along four nested application layers (process, system, regional, global) and has matured through three stages: theoretical foundation (pre-2005), methodological diffusion (2006–2015), and integrative deepening (2016–2025); and (3) current frontiers concentrate on standardizing global emergy baselines, coupling cosmic-exergy-based ecological footprint models, and translating emergy/exergy ratios into actionable metrics for carbon neutrality and circular-economy policies. A framework is constructed to describe the system of current related research to provide a reference for scholars to carry out targeted research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111475"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stochastic quasi-cycles as a simple explanation for the time evolution of the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine ecological reserve","authors":"César Parra-Rojas ,&nbsp;Duccio Fanelli ,&nbsp;Alan J. McKane","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111477","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The dataset collected at the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine (CR-OPM) reserve on the North Island of New Zealand is rather unique. It describes the cyclic time evolution of a rocky intertidal community, with the relative abundances of the various coastal species that have been meticulously monitored for more than 20 years. Past theoretical studies, anchored on a deterministic description, invoked external forcing to reproduce the observed dynamical paths. Following a maximum likelihood approach to interpolate individual stochastic trajectories, we here propose quasi-cycles as an alternative, and an in our view a simpler, mechanism to explain the oscillations observed in the population numbers of the ecosystem. From a general standpoint, we also show that it is possible to return conclusive evidence on the existence of stochastic quasi-cycles, without resorting to global fitting strategies which necessitate handling a large collection of independent replicas of the dynamics, a possibility that is often precluded in real life applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111477"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Theoretical insights from functional-response modeling of green sea turtle aggregation on seagrass","authors":"Naoto K. Inoue","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111493","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111493","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Long-term conservation efforts have contributed to the recovery of green sea turtle (<em>Chelonia mydas</em>) populations in many regions, highlighting the need to reassess conservation plans within a broader ecosystem context. In some areas, localized high turtle densities can impose strong grazing pressure on seagrass meadows. Two measures have been suggested to mitigate such impacts: (i) enhancing seagrass growth through nutrient or symbiotic algae supplementation, and (ii) managing turtle populations by predator protection or localized commercial use. However, model-based studies focusing on seagrass-turtle interactions remain limited, and the resulting effects of the measures on system dynamics are not well understood. To address the gap, the author developed a simple seagrass-turtle model that incorporates turtle aggregation in seagrass patches. By assuming that turtles move to the most seagrass-rich patch and applying simple distributions for seagrass shoot numbers per patch and the number of accessible patches, turtle aggregation was modeled as a simple functional response. The constructed model revealed that turtle aggregation causes positive density dependence in seagrass and negative density dependence in turtles, leading to destabilization through increased seagrass growth and stabilization through turtle population management. Extending the model to incorporate additional ecological factors, such as alternative turtle food resources or spatially heterogeneous environments, alongside empirical assessments of turtle mortality and its causes, could inform future management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111493"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Functional differences between aquatic herbivores emerge from bioenergetic processes","authors":"Tjui Yeuw Tan ,&nbsp;Andrew G. Hirst ,&nbsp;Joop W.P. Coolen ,&nbsp;Jan Jaap Poos ,&nbsp;Jaap van der Meer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111465","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111465","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Primary consumers, also known as grazers, transfer energy fixated by primary production to higher trophic levels. In aquatic environments, two grazer groups are dominant — those living in the open water (pelagic) and those living associated to a surface (benthic). When traits are used to compare both groups, selecting the appropriate traits to compare is a crucial step. Bioenergetic approaches can help standardize trait selection and identify which are most relevant. We showed the bioenergetic traits that differentiate these grazer groups using Dynamic Energy Budget theory. We also explored the life-history implications of expressing such traits. Pelagic grazers reach sexual maturity faster and use more energy for somatic maintenance per unit of structural volume. The energy used in somatic maintenance is also associated to nitrogen excretion, which helps cycle nutrients in the water column. In contrast, benthic grazers generally consume less oxygen per unit of dry weight and are more efficient in producing biomass from assimilated energy. The bioenergetic traits driving differences between grazer groups uncover the emergence of contrasting body sizes, development rates, and life-span. Predictions based on these traits also reveal different ecosystem roles in terms of nutrient cycling and biomass fixation. This bioenergetic approach clarifies how different traits contribute to the relative roles of organisms in an ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111465"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of herd shape and delay in a two strain prey–predator model","authors":"Sanskriti Jain ,&nbsp;Balram Dubey ,&nbsp;Qianqian Zheng ,&nbsp;Pankaj Mathur ,&nbsp;Vikas Pandey","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111463","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111463","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the present study, a novel two-strain eco-epidemiological SIS-type model with mass-action incidence rates is developed. In this model, we assumed that only healthy prey form herds, which not only limits predator access but may also injure or kill predators. Basic reproduction numbers for both strains derived, demonstrate that, despite differing values, the system permits coexistence of both infection strains. The numerical simulation demonstrates that certain herd formation and predator mortality thresholds eliminate one strain while the other strain persists, implying they have an inhibitory effect on strain persistence. In some cases, one strain may dominate over the other, similar to observations in avian influenza virus dynamics. The dynamics are investigated both with and without delay. Bifurcation analysis of the model without delay reveals critical thresholds for herd shape and predator mortality, leading to stable limit cycles, collapse, or extinction. Generalized Hopf (GH) bifurcations are observed in the <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>k</mi><mo>−</mo><msub><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> parameter space, along with associated limit points of cycles (LPC), revealing complex dynamics and bistability under two-strain infection. Introducing delay induces further instability through new Hopf bifurcations, highlighting the role of time lags in population stability. These results underscore the interplay of herd effects with two-strain infection, demonstrating coexistence and the destabilizing influence of delays.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111463"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interpretability of graph neural networks to assess effects of global change drivers on ecological networks","authors":"Emre Anakok ,&nbsp;Pierre Barbillon ,&nbsp;Colin Fontaine ,&nbsp;Elisa Thebault","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111472","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111472","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pollinators play a crucial role for plant reproduction, either in natural ecosystem or in human-modified landscape. Global change drivers, including climate change or land use modifications, can alter the plant–pollinator interactions. To assess the potential influence of global change drivers on pollination, large-scale interactions, climate and land use data are required. While recent machine learning methods, such as graph neural networks (GNNs), allow the analysis of such datasets, interpreting their results can be challenging. We explore existing methods for interpreting GNNs in order to highlight the effects of various environmental covariates on pollination network connectivity. An extensive simulation study is performed to confirm whether these methods can detect the interactive effect between a covariate and a genus of plant on connectivity, and whether the application of debiasing techniques influences the estimation of these effects. An application on the Spipoll dataset, with and without accounting for sampling effects, highlights the potential impact of land use on network connectivity and shows that accounting for sampling effects partially alters the estimation of these effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111472"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-detection by citizen scientists modeled as a function of visit characteristics","authors":"Gert W. Jacobusse ,&nbsp;Eelke Jongejans","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Citizen science is an increasingly valuable source of information about biodiversity. It is challenging to use this information for analysis of distribution and trends. The lack of a protocol leads to observation bias due to unequal detection and reporting probabilities, caused by different preferences and habits of citizen scientists. With an immediate focus on occupancy, it is hard to extract value from citizen science data because of such observation bias. We propose to incorporate multiple characteristics of excursions in analyses of data collected by citizen scientists to improve estimates of the probability that a species is not detected and reported, even though it does occur. By limiting these models to areas that are known to be occupied, detection can be modeled separately without considering variation in occupancy. We apply this idea to 150 common species in the Southwest Delta of The Netherlands, and illustrate the data selection, modeling process and results using four species. The strongest features to predict detection are the number of species reported during a visit (list length), earlier observations of the target species by the same observer, and the day of year. We compare three approaches to predict the probability that a species is not detected during any of the visits to an area. Predictions based on only the number of visits were outperformed by predictions that also take the list length into account. Predictions based on all features combined consistently beat both other approaches, across all 10 species groups that were compared. We thus show that explicitly modelling the characteristics of all visits to an occupied area results in estimation of non-detection probabilities, while providing insight into the causes of detection and reporting bias. Like in occupancy models, predictions of our model can be combined per area to update occupancy estimates and thereby correct bias in citizen science data when aiming to map a species’ distribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111474"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145939874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}