Ecological Modelling最新文献_第8页

Mountain pine beetle spread in forests with varying host resistance 山松甲虫在不同寄主抗性森林中的传播

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110911

Micah Brush , Mark A. Lewis

In the last few decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB) have spread into novel regions in Canada. An important aspect seldom captured in models of MPB spread is host resistance. Lodgepole pine, the predominant host of MPB, varies in resistance across the landscape. There is evidence for a genetic component of resistance, as well as evidence that hosts in areas where MPB has not been present historically are at risk of increased susceptibility. In addition to the spatially varying resistance of the primary host species, the eastward spread of MPB has brought them into jack pine forests. Host resistance in jack pine remains uncertain, but experiments indicate jack pine could be a suitable host. We develop a model of pine beetle spread that links pine beetle population dynamics and forest structure and resistance. We find that beetle outbreaks in the model are characterized by large transient outbreaks that move through the forest. We show how the speed of these outbreaks changes with host resistance and find that biologically plausible values for host resistance are able to stop the wave from advancing. We also find that near the threshold of resistance where the wave is able to advance, small changes in host resistance dramatically decrease the severity of the outbreak. These results indicate that planting trees selected for higher MPB resistance on the landscape may be able to slow or even stop the local spread of MPB. In terms of further eastward spread, our results indicate future outbreaks may move more quickly and be more severe if novel lodgepole pine hosts are indeed more susceptible to beetle attacks, although more research is needed into the susceptibility of jack pine.

在过去几十年中，山松甲虫（MPB）已蔓延到加拿大的一些新地区。在 MPB 传播模型中，很少考虑到的一个重要方面是寄主抗性。洛奇松是 MPB 的主要寄主，其抗性在整个地形中各不相同。有证据表明，抗性中有遗传因素，也有证据表明，在历史上没有出现过 MPB 的地区，寄主的易感性有可能增加。除了主要寄主物种的抗性在空间上存在差异外，MPB 的东向传播也将它们带入了杰克松森林。杰克松的寄主抗性仍不确定，但实验表明杰克松可能是一种合适的寄主。我们建立了一个松材线虫传播模型，将松材线虫的种群动态与森林结构和抗性联系起来。我们发现，模型中甲虫爆发的特点是在森林中移动的大规模瞬时爆发。我们展示了这些爆发的速度如何随寄主抗性的变化而变化，并发现寄主抗性在生物学上的合理值能够阻止甲虫波的推进。我们还发现，在抗性临界值附近，疫潮能够向前推进，寄主抗性的微小变化会显著降低疫情的严重程度。这些结果表明，在景观中种植经过挑选的具有较高 MPB 抗性的树木可能会减缓甚至阻止 MPB 在当地的传播。就进一步向东传播而言，我们的研究结果表明，如果新的落羽松寄主确实更容易受到甲虫的攻击，那么未来的疫情爆发可能会更快、更严重，不过还需要对杰克松的易感性进行更多的研究。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating the effects of two newly emerging plant pathogens on northern Aotearoa-New Zealand forests using an individual-based model 利用基于个体的模型评估两种新出现的植物病原体对新西兰奥特亚罗瓦北部森林的影响

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110938

Craig E. Simpkins , Peter J. Bellingham , Kiri Reihana , James M.R. Brock , George L.W. Perry

Globally, forest ecosystems face many threats to their resilience. During the last 20 years, two plant pathogens have become of widespread concern in Aotearoa-New Zealand (NZ): kauri dieback (a soil-borne disease caused by Phytophthora agathidicida and affecting Agathis australis, a large and long-lived gymnosperm) and myrtle rust (a wind-borne disease caused by Austropuccinia psidii and affecting members of the Myrtaceae). The long-term consequences of these pathogens are unclear, but they could drive significant changes in forest composition and ecosystem function. Here, we use an individual-based forest model for northern NZ, enabling us to explore some of these stressors. The model has previously been used to explore the dynamics of northern forests in NZ. To examine how myrtle rust and kauri dieback might affect forest dynamics under various scenarios we refined the model by (i) representing additional species, (ii) including an underlying edaphic gradient in addition to competition for light, (iii) simulating the effects of the plant pathogens kauri dieback and myrtle rust and (iv) porting the model from NetLogo 6 to Julia. Our simulation experiments suggest that myrtle rust may hasten the decline of two early successional species that we evaluated but has less effect on carbon storage. On the other hand, kauri dieback may lead to the stand-level loss of all Agathis australis and a median decline in aboveground live carbon storage of up to 55 % compared to undiseased stands after 500 years. The model experiments do not identify any interactive effects between the two pathogens. As with other efforts to model NZ's forest ecosystems, the model struggles to capture the regeneration dynamics of very long-lived species. Regeneration dynamics and evaluating a broader pool of the tree species common in the forests of northern NZ are where we will focus on future model development.

在全球范围内，森林生态系统的恢复能力面临着许多威胁。在过去 20 年中，有两种植物病原体在奥特亚罗瓦-新西兰（NZ）引起了广泛关注：一种是金丝楠木枯死病（一种土传病害，由 Phytophthora agathidicida 引起，影响大型长寿裸子植物 Agathis australis），另一种是桃金娘锈病（一种风传病害，由 Austropuccinia psidii 引起，影响桃金娘科植物）。这些病原体的长期后果尚不清楚，但它们可能会导致森林组成和生态系统功能发生重大变化。在这里，我们使用了一个基于个体的新西兰北部森林模型，使我们能够探索其中的一些压力因素。该模型以前曾用于探索新西兰北部森林的动态变化。为了研究在各种情况下桃金娘锈病和金丝桃树枯死可能对森林动态产生的影响，我们对模型进行了改进：(i) 代表更多的物种；(ii) 除了光照竞争外，还包括潜在的气候梯度；(iii) 模拟植物病原体金丝桃树枯死和桃金娘锈病的影响；(iv) 将模型从 NetLogo 6 移植到 Julia。我们的模拟实验表明，桃金娘锈病可能会加速我们评估的两种早期演替物种的衰退，但对碳储存的影响较小。另一方面，金丝桃锈病可能会导致所有金丝桃（Agathis australis）的减少，并且与500年后未发病的林分相比，地上活碳储量的中位数下降高达55%。模型实验没有发现两种病原体之间有任何交互影响。与其他新西兰森林生态系统建模工作一样，该模型也难以捕捉寿命极长物种的再生动态。新西兰北部森林中常见树种的再生动态和评估范围更广，是我们未来模型开发的重点。

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引用次数: 0

Cross-realm transferability of species distribution models–Species characteristics and prevalence matter more than modelling methods applied 物种分布模型的跨域可转移性--物种特征和流行程度比应用的建模方法更重要

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110950

Antti Takolander , Louise Forsblom , Seppo Hellsten , Jari Ilmonen , Ari-Pekka Jokinen , Niko Kallio , Sampsa Koponen , Sakari Väkevä , Elina Virtanen

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are frequently applied in ecological research, but geographic transferability of SDMs holds major uncertainties. Here, we assess the cross-realm (sea to lake) geographic transferability of four SDM methods: Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs), and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BARTs) predicting occurrences of freshwater macrophytes from brackish water sea area (Bothnian Bay) to a freshwater lake environment in Finland. We found that the SDM method applied did not affect model transferability, and majority of the variation in transferability performance was associated with species. For most species model transferability was low, but reasonably good on one third of the species modelled, which had similar prevalences in both marine and freshwater data. These were emergent species or species growing close to shoreline, which presumably share similar environmental niche in terms of growing depth and water turbidity between the two environments. Generally, models which had high interpolation performance, also had higher transferability, but this relationship was not dependent on the SDM method applied. Our results suggest that species prevalence and species-specific characteristics, such as growth form, life history traits and ecological niche, are main contributors to geographic transferability of SDMs.

物种分布模型（SDM）经常被应用于生态学研究，但其地理可转移性却存在很大的不确定性。在此，我们评估了四种 SDM 方法的跨域（海到湖）地理可转移性：通用线性模型（GLMs）、通用加法模型（GAMs）、提升回归树（BRTs）和贝叶斯加法回归树（BARTs）预测淡水大型藻类从咸水海域（鲍尔特尼亚湾）到芬兰淡水湖环境的出现情况。我们发现，所采用的 SDM 方法并不影响模型的可转移性，而可转移性表现的大部分差异都与物种有关。对于大多数物种而言，模型的可转移性较低，但对于三分之一的建模物种而言，模型的可转移性还算不错，这些物种在海洋和淡水数据中的流行率相似。这些物种是新出现的物种或生长在海岸线附近的物种，在生长深度和水体浑浊度方面，这两种环境可能具有相似的环境生态位。一般来说，插值性能高的模型也具有较高的可转移性，但这种关系并不取决于所应用的 SDM 方法。我们的研究结果表明，物种的普遍性和物种的特定特征，如生长形式、生活史特征和生态位，是影响 SDM 地理可转移性的主要因素。

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引用次数: 0

Autocorrelation as a critical factor of growth depensation of tropical trees in the Chocó biogeographic region 自相关性是乔科生物地理区域热带树木生长减弱的一个关键因素

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110949

Camilo E. Martínez , Sergio A. Orrego , Jorge A. Giraldo , Jorge I. del Valle , Freddy Hernández-Barajas , Diego A. David

Growth depensation, the variation of size with age exhibited by populations, is attributed to biological, ecological, and environmental factors, as well as autocorrelation. Several studies have focused on the study of diameter growth of tropical trees to obtain information on ontogenic traits and silvicultural metrics of interest for ecology and forest management. However, few studies have rigorously and adequately considered autocorrelation as a primary factor contributing to growth depensation. The aim of this study was to investigate diameter growth in tree species from the Chocó biogeographic region. We used tree-ring data corresponding to 38 trees and 5 species. Our modeling approach included von Bertalanffy type equations to estimate diameter growth trajectories for each species using mixed effects models. ARIMA specifications were included in the residual terms to account for autocorrelation. The estimated parameters allowed us to calculate ontogenic traits and silvicultural metrics for each species. The results indicate that autocorrelation was a critical factor in growth depensation for all species studied, and was satisfactorily accounted for by the proposed modeling approach. Autocorrelation patterns on residuals showed a stochastic trend and were investigated by correlation structures of ARIMA(1,1,0) and ARIMA(2,1,0). Ontogenic traits and silvicultural metrics obtained for these species were biologically consistent, providing reliable and useful information to understand the population ecology of tropical trees and to inform management and conservation strategies of natural forests.

生物、生态和环境因素以及自相关性是造成生长不均衡（即种群的大小随年龄的变化而变化）的原因。一些研究侧重于热带树木直径生长的研究，以获取生态学和森林管理所关注的本体特征和造林指标方面的信息。然而，很少有研究严格而充分地考虑到自相关性是导致生长减弱的主要因素。本研究旨在调查乔科生物地理区域树种的直径增长情况。我们使用了 38 种树木和 5 个树种的树环数据。我们的建模方法包括冯-贝塔朗菲（von Bertalanffy）类型方程，利用混合效应模型估计每个物种的直径增长轨迹。残差项中包含 ARIMA 规范，以考虑自相关性。根据估计参数，我们可以计算出每个物种的本体特征和造林指标。结果表明，自相关性是所有研究物种生长减弱的关键因素，而所提出的建模方法可以很好地解释自相关性。残差的自相关模式呈现随机趋势，并通过 ARIMA（1,1,0）和 ARIMA（2,1,0）的相关结构进行了研究。这些物种的本体性状和造林指标在生物学上是一致的，为了解热带树木的种群生态学以及为天然林的管理和保护策略提供了可靠和有用的信息。

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引用次数: 0

Inter-species comparison of life traits related to amnesic shellfish toxin kinetic in five pectinid species 五种果胶物种与失忆性贝类毒素动力学相关生命特征的种间比较

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110921

Eline Le Moan , Laure Pecquerie , Laure Régnier-Brisson , Hélène Hégaret , Paulo F. Lagos , Léo Heyer , Salvador Emilio Lluch-Cota , Fred Jean , Jonathan Flye-Sainte-Marie

Pectinid species (scallops) hold significant economic value, but their filtration activity makes them vulnerable to harmful algal blooms, particularly Pseudo-nitzschia species producing domoic acid (DA). Domoic acid contamination can lead to amnesic shellfish poisoning in humans, causing prolonged fisheries closures and sales bans. This study aimed to compare several pectinid species to investigate if inter-specific differences in energetic traits could be linked to their ability to depurate the toxin. Using Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory and the AmP multi-species estimation procedure, we analysed five species: two slow depurators (Pecten maximus and Placopecten magellanicus) and three hypothesised fast depurators (Argopecten purpuratus, Mimachlamys varia, and Nodipecten subnodosus). Results showed differences among species in assimilation rates, somatic maintenance rates, and reserve mobilisation rates but only the reserve mobilisation rates (i.e. the energy conductance parameter) consistently increased along the “slow-to-fast” depuration gradient. This research lays the groundwork for developing toxin kinetics models to quantify the processes affecting DA accumulation and depuration, and to assess the retention time of DA. Our approach and results will therefore not only be of interest to the DEB community in terms of multi-species approaches, but are likely to have applications in pectinid aquaculture and fisheries management.

果胶类（扇贝）具有重要的经济价值，但它们的过滤活性使其很容易受到有害藻类大量繁殖的影响，尤其是会产生多羧酸（DA）的假栉水母类（Pseudo-nitzschia）。多羧酸污染可导致人类失忆性贝类中毒，造成长期的渔业关闭和销售禁令。本研究旨在对几种果胶物种进行比较，以调查能量特征的种间差异是否与它们去除毒素的能力有关。利用动态能量预算（DEB）理论和 AmP 多物种估算程序，我们对五个物种进行了分析：两个慢速去毒者（Pecten maximus 和 Placopecten magellanicus）和三个假定的快速去毒者（Argopecten purpuratus、Mimachlamys varia 和 Nodipecten subnodosus）。结果表明，不同物种在同化率、体细胞维持率和储备动员率方面存在差异，但只有储备动员率（即能量传导参数）沿着 "慢-快 "去势梯度持续上升。这项研究为开发毒素动力学模型奠定了基础，以量化影响 DA 积累和净化的过程，并评估 DA 的滞留时间。因此，我们的方法和结果不仅在多物种方法方面引起了 DEB 界的兴趣，而且很可能在果胶水产养殖和渔业管理方面得到应用。

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引用次数: 0

Comparing commonly used aquatic habitat modeling methods for native fish 比较常用的本地鱼类水生生境建模方法

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110909

Eryn K. Turney , Gregory C. Goodrum , W. Carl Saunders , Timothy E. Walsworth , Sarah E. Null

Aquatic habitat suitability models are increasingly coupled with water management models to estimate environmental effects of water management. Many types of habitat models exist, but there are no standard methods to compare predictive performance of habitat model types for use with water management models. In this study, we compared three common aquatic habitat model types: a hydraulic-habitat model, a habitat threshold model, and a geospatial model. Each of the models predicted native Bonneville Cutthroat Trout distribution in the Bear River Watershed (Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming, USA) at a monthly timestep. We compared the differences in predictive performance among models by validating 1) environmental predictors of the models with field observations from summer 2022, using the coefficient of determination (R²), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index, and percent bias (PBIAS) and 2) habitat suitability estimates generated by each model with fish presence data and three accuracy metrics developed for this study. Validation of environmental predictors revealed observed conditions were not well represented by any of the three models—a function of either outdated, incorrect, or over-generalized input data. Validation of habitat suitability predictions using Bonneville Cutthroat Trout presence data showed the habitat threshold model most accurately classified fish presence observations in suitable habitat, but suitable habitat was likely overpredicted. While more precise habitat modeling methods may be useful to support generalized habitat estimates for native fish, overall, simple models, like the habitat threshold model, are promising for incorporating ecological objectives into water management models.

水生生境适宜性模型越来越多地与水管理模型相结合，以估算水管理对环境的影响。目前存在多种类型的生境模型，但还没有标准方法来比较与水管理模型结合使用的生境模型类型的预测性能。在这项研究中，我们比较了三种常见的水生生境模型类型：水力生境模型、生境阈值模型和地理空间模型。每种模型都能以月为时间单位预测本地邦纳维尔切喉鳟在熊河流域（美国犹他州、爱达荷州和怀俄明州）的分布情况。我们通过以下方法比较了各模型预测性能的差异：1）利用 2022 年夏季的实地观测结果验证模型的环境预测因子，采用的方法包括判定系数（R²）、纳什-苏克里夫效率（NSE）指数和偏差百分比（PBIAS）；2）利用鱼类存在数据和为本研究开发的三个精度指标验证各模型生成的栖息地适宜性估计值。对环境预测因子的验证表明，三个模型都不能很好地反映观测到的条件--这是输入数据过时、不正确或过于概括的结果。使用邦纳维尔切喉鳟（Bonneville Cutthroat Trout）出现数据对栖息地适宜性预测进行的验证表明，栖息地阈值模型最准确地将鱼类出现观测结果归类为适宜栖息地，但适宜栖息地很可能被预测过高。虽然更精确的栖息地建模方法可能有助于支持对本地鱼类栖息地的概括性估计，但总体而言，像栖息地阈值模型这样的简单模型在将生态目标纳入水管理模型方面还是很有前景的。

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引用次数: 0

Optimizing greenhouse design for enhanced microalgae production: A CFD Analysis of microclimate and water thermal dynamics in raceway ponds 优化温室设计，提高微藻产量：赛道池塘小气候和水热动力学的 CFD 分析

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110946

Hicham Fatnassi , Reda Errais , Christine Poncet

The increasing demand for sustainable biomass has made microalgae farming into the spotlight as a viable source of biofuels, nutraceuticals, and other valuable products. Raceway ponds are one of the most common systems in algaculture due to their simplicity and cost-effectiveness. However, their efficiency is significantly influenced by surrounding microclimate conditions. In this study, we present a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis aimed at optimizing greenhouse design to enhance microalgae production in a raceway pond housed within a controlled greenhouse environment. The research focuses on evaluating the influence of greenhouse microclimate parameters on water's thermal dynamics in the pond. Simulations were conducted to assess how different greenhouse geometries and ventilation configurations affect the heat exchange between the water surface and air within the greenhouse, as well as the internal flow dynamics, both of which are critical for optimal algae growth.

The results provide insights into the optimal greenhouse design parameters that maintain the optimal water temperatures in the pond while minimizing thermal fluctuations to enhance microalgae productivity. Specifically, a significant 5 °C temperature difference was observed between the pond's surface and bottom, mainly due to convective heat transfer. Key design factors, such as greenhouse height and ventilation rates, were shown to have a substantial impact on water temperature.

The insights gained are essential for optimizing greenhouse design and ventilation strategies to maximize algae growth and production efficiency. This preliminary modeling lays the foundation for future sensitivity analyses aimed at refining the system, ultimately improving algae cultivation in controlled environment agricultural systems.

对可持续生物质日益增长的需求使微藻类养殖成为生物燃料、营养保健品和其他有价值产品的可行来源。赛道池塘因其简单和成本效益高而成为最常见的藻类养殖系统之一。然而，其效率受周围小气候条件的影响很大。在本研究中，我们介绍了一项计算流体动力学（CFD）分析，旨在优化温室设计，以提高置于受控温室环境中的赛道池塘的微藻产量。研究重点是评估温室小气候参数对池塘水热动力学的影响。模拟评估了不同的温室几何形状和通风配置如何影响温室内水面和空气之间的热交换以及内部流动动力学，这两者对于水藻的最佳生长至关重要。具体而言，观察到池塘表面和底部之间存在 5 °C 的明显温差，这主要是由于对流传热造成的。研究表明，温室高度和通风率等关键设计因素会对水温产生重大影响。研究结果对于优化温室设计和通风策略，最大限度地提高藻类生长和生产效率至关重要。这一初步建模为未来的敏感性分析奠定了基础，旨在完善系统，最终改善受控环境农业系统中的水藻培养。

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引用次数: 0

A model-based policy analysis framework for social-ecological systems: Integrating uncertainty and participation in system dynamics modelling 基于模型的社会生态系统政策分析框架：将不确定性和参与性纳入系统动力学建模

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110943

Henry Amorocho-Daza , Janez Sušnik , Pieter van der Zaag , Jill H. Slinger

Problems manifested within social-ecological systems (SES) exhibit dynamic complexity and hold implications for current and future human well-being and environmental sustainability. The complexity of these issues, the ever-present uncertainty inherent to SES, and the multi-stakeholder settings in which they are discussed call for participatory modelling to support decision-making on socio-environmental issues. Yet, this challenging endeavour requires a structured approach — a modelling cycle — to facilitate engagement with the implications of participation and uncertainty as focal points for Good Modelling Practice (GMP). Here we propose an integrated policy analysis framework for SES modelling using System Dynamics (SD). This framework stems from integrating two existing modelling cycles that individually consider participation and uncertainty in SD modelling. Three global modelling phases and a set of tools to address the participation and uncertainty features in SES modelling are distinguished. The framework contributes to mainstreaming GMP, offering a structured model-based approach to enhance the robustness and social acceptance of policies on critical socio-environmental issues.

社会生态系统（SES）中出现的问题具有动态复杂性，对当前和未来的人类福祉和环境可持续性都有影响。这些问题的复杂性、社会生态系统固有的不确定性，以及讨论这些问题的多方利益相关者环境，都需要参与式建模来支持有关社会环境问题的决策。然而，这项具有挑战性的工作需要一个结构化的方法--建模周期--以促进参与和不确定性的影响，并将其作为良好建模实践（GMP）的焦点。在此，我们提出了一个利用系统动力学（SD）进行 SES 建模的综合政策分析框架。该框架整合了现有的两个建模周期，分别考虑了 SD 建模中的参与性和不确定性。它区分了三个全球建模阶段和一套工具，以解决 SES 建模中的参与性和不确定性问题。该框架有助于将全球环境管理计划纳入主流，提供了一种基于模型的结构化方法，以提高有关重大社会环境问题的政策的稳健性和社会接受度。

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引用次数: 0

Forest structure, roads and soil moisture provide realistic predictions of fire spread in modern Swedish landscape 森林结构、道路和土壤湿度可真实预测现代瑞典地貌中的火灾蔓延情况

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110942

Sara Sharon Jones , Maksym Matsala , Emily Viola Delin , Narayanan Subramanian , Urban Nilsson , Emma Holmström , Igor Drobyshev

Recent increases in fire activity in Sweden call for the quantification of forest fire susceptibility, in order to develop management strategies to mitigate fire risk. Using the data from 100 large Swedish forest fires (>10 ha), mapped from sentinel-2 images from 2016 to 2022, we explored the predictive power of vegetation properties in estimating relative likelihood of fires within a landscape using logistic regression. To model spatially explicit fire susceptibility within a given landscape, we used the outcome of logistic regression as an input into a cellular automata model (CA model), which simulates fire spread in a 2D grid.

The CA was model calibrated on three fires that occurred between 2016 and 2022, then verified on six 2023 fires and featured a mean sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.79. The logistic regression model had an accuracy of 54 %, showing increased fire susceptibility from high Scots pine volume (p-value = 0.02), and decreased fire susceptibility from high volumes of deciduous trees and wet soil. Realistic outcomes of the CA model and reliance of our approach on publicly available data with nation-wide coverage of vegetation cover in Sweden allows for the development of an automated protocol of fire susceptibility assessment at the operational level and its integration in existing decision support systems. This would allow forest owners to obtain estimates of forest fire susceptibility for different forest management strategies.

瑞典近期火灾活动的增加要求对森林火灾的易发性进行量化，以便制定管理策略来降低火灾风险。利用哨兵-2 图像绘制的 2016 年至 2022 年瑞典 100 起大型森林火灾（10 公顷）的数据，我们使用逻辑回归法探索了植被特性在估计景观内火灾相对可能性方面的预测能力。为了在给定景观内建立空间明确的火灾易感性模型，我们将逻辑回归的结果作为细胞自动机模型（CA 模型）的输入，该模型模拟火灾在二维网格中的蔓延。逻辑回归模型的准确率为 54%，表明苏格兰松树数量多会增加火灾易感性（p 值 = 0.02），落叶树数量多和土壤潮湿会降低火灾易感性。CA 模型的现实结果以及我们的方法对瑞典全国植被覆盖的公开数据的依赖，使得我们可以在操作层面上开发火灾易感性评估的自动化协议，并将其集成到现有的决策支持系统中。这将使森林所有者能够根据不同的森林管理策略获得森林火灾易发性的估计值。

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引用次数: 0

A general DDE framework to describe insect populations: Why delays are so important? 描述昆虫种群的一般 DDE 框架：延迟为何如此重要？

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110937

Luca Rossini , Nicolás Bono Rosselló , Ouassim Benhamouche , Mario Contarini , Stefano Speranza , Emanuele Garone

Physiologically-based models are a valuable tool to describe the biology of terrestrial arthropods, as it is the case of insects. These models represent the division of the life cycle in various discrete stages and provide explicit connections with the external environment, making them good candidates for decision support system tools. However, despite the current literature offering good theoretical frameworks, most of them lack of a description of the minimum time required by the organisms to develop to the next life stage. This problem leads to an overestimation of the population and to a compression of the peaks of the generations, hindering their application in real scenarios. In this study we provide a new general model based on Delay Differential Equations (DDE) that overcomes the problem of the minimum development time by introducing time-dependent delays. Those delays generally depend not only on the biology of the species, but on time and on the environmental conditions. This theoretical extension has new implications from the parameter estimation point of view, which are discussed with the support of a case study of agronomic relevance: the brown marmorated stink bug Halyomorpha halys. Besides supporting the description of the model, the case of H. halys was also considered to validate the model using datasets from two geographical locations, for an overall of 5 fields. Simulations showed that the DDE model describes the experimental data better than its previous version based on ordinary differential equations. The model represents an overall step forward in theory development and can be of great support to describe multivoltine species.

以生理为基础的模型是描述陆生节肢动物生物学的重要工具，昆虫也是如此。这些模型将生命周期划分为不同的离散阶段，并提供了与外部环境的明确联系，使其成为决策支持系统工具的良好候选者。然而，尽管目前的文献提供了很好的理论框架，但其中大多数缺乏对生物体发育到下一个生命阶段所需的最短时间的描述。这个问题导致了对种群的高估和对世代峰值的压缩，阻碍了它们在实际场景中的应用。在本研究中，我们提供了一种基于延迟微分方程（DDE）的新通用模型，通过引入随时间变化的延迟来克服最短发育时间的问题。这些延迟一般不仅取决于物种的生物学特性，还取决于时间和环境条件。从参数估计的角度来看，这一理论扩展具有新的意义，我们将通过一个与农艺相关的案例研究：褐狨蝽（Halyomorpha halys）对其进行讨论。除了支持对模型的描述外，还考虑了 H. halys 的情况，利用来自两个地理位置的数据集对 5 块田地的总体情况进行了验证。模拟结果表明，与之前基于常微分方程的模型相比，DDE 模型能更好地描述实验数据。该模型代表了理论发展的整体进步，对描述多伏特物种有很大帮助。

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