Ecological Modelling最新文献_第7页

Two decades of species distribution modeling: A systematic review of methods and applications 物种分布建模的二十年：方法和应用的系统回顾

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111441

Yasemin ÖZKAN TÜMER , İnci CAGLAYAN , Ahmet YEŞİL , Louis IVERSON

This systematic review presents a comprehensive synthesis of species distribution modeling (SDM) applied to forest ecosystems in the context of climate change. Our analysis covered 50 papers each from four consecutive five-year periods dating from 2003 to 2022. We thus assessed 200 articles from the Web of Science database and meticulously categorized them according to 16 categories to discern patterns and developments in SDM research. The classification scheme included key factors such as continent of study, number of species modeled, grain size, type of species data, and the range of analytical and statistical models utilized.

Our analysis explored the evolution of SDM practices and their methodological diversity. This assessment evaluated various modeling approaches, as influenced by advances in technology and data availability. By focusing on distinctive parameters such as ancillary non-climate data, choice of climate model institutions, and climate change scenarios, the review paints a detailed picture of methodologies shaping our understanding of species distribution under climatic alterations.

Our results reveal three major insights: (1) a marked rise in the use of machine learning techniques, especially Random Forest and MaxEnt; (2) a persistent dominance of presence-only or presence–absence data, which limits ecological inference in many studies; and (3) limited integration of multi-scenario climate projections, constraining uncertainty representation in model outputs.

The findings highlight not only the methodological intricacies and regional focuses of SDM studies, but also the interdisciplinary nature of addressing biodiversity changes under climate dynamics. The revealed trends underscore the increasing complexity of SDMs and stress the importance of adopting multifaceted research strategies. This comprehensive review aims to inform future research directions, review enhancements to the predictive capacity of SDMs, and improve our understanding of biodiversity responses to ongoing and future climate change.

本文综述了气候变化背景下森林生态系统物种分布模型（SDM）的研究进展。我们的分析涵盖了从2003年到2022年连续四个五年期间的50篇论文。因此，我们评估了来自Web of Science数据库的200篇文章，并根据16个类别对它们进行了细致的分类，以识别SDM研究的模式和发展。该分类方案包括研究大陆、建模物种数量、粒度、物种数据类型以及使用的分析和统计模型范围等关键因素。我们的分析探讨了SDM实践的演变及其方法的多样性。这项评估评估了受技术进步和数据可用性影响的各种建模方法。通过关注不同的参数，如辅助的非气候数据、气候模式机构的选择和气候变化情景，这篇综述描绘了气候变化下形成我们对物种分布理解的方法的详细图景。我们的研究结果揭示了三个主要的见解：(1)机器学习技术的使用显著增加，特别是随机森林和MaxEnt；(2)仅存在或不存在的数据持续占主导地位，这限制了许多研究中的生态推断；(3)多情景气候预估的有限整合，限制了模式输出中的不确定性表示。这些发现不仅突出了SDM研究方法的复杂性和区域重点，而且突出了气候动态下解决生物多样性变化的跨学科性质。揭示的趋势强调了sdm日益复杂，并强调了采用多方面研究策略的重要性。本综述旨在为未来的研究方向提供信息，综述sdm预测能力的增强，并提高我们对生物多样性对当前和未来气候变化的响应的理解。

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引用次数: 0

A dynamic model of the Xylella fastidiosa pathosystem as a tool to optimize management scenarios: An example using the almond tree 苛养木杆菌病理系统的动态模型作为优化管理方案的工具：以杏树为例

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111430

Adrián Flores-García, John Y. Dobson, Eva S. Fonfría, David García-García, Jesús García-Martínez, César Bordehore

The almond tree (Prunus dulcis) is one of the most extensively grown species around the Mediterranean basin and has an important economic value for this region. Since 2016, the bacteria Xylella fastidiosa has spread and infected crops from the Balearic Islands and peninsular Spain. The main transmission vectors of X. fastidiosa in the Spanish Mediterranean are the xylem-feeding spittlebugs Philaenus spumarius and Neophilaenus campestris. Despite all the management strategies taken, the situation has become critical in certain areas. To support these efforts, this study develops a dynamic model considering the entire X. fastidiosa pathosystem (bacteria, host plants and insect vectors). The model is calibrated with field data from the Alicante province (Spain), available literature and some estimation of parameters. This tool makes it possible to compare and optimise management strategies. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most responsive variables of the model are Neophilaenus adult death rate, and larva growth and death rates. The model output replicates the decreasing productive tree population trend which happens in the crops affected by X. fastidiosa, even displaying the latency between when the plant is infected and when the symptoms appear. Summarising, the model is a great potential tool which can be used for the evaluation of contingency and preventive measures.

杏仁树（Prunus dulcis）是地中海盆地周围种植最广泛的树种之一，对该地区具有重要的经济价值。自2016年以来，苛养木杆菌已经从巴利阿里群岛和西班牙半岛传播并感染了农作物。西班牙地中海地区苛养X.虫的主要传播媒介为食木质部的spumarius Philaenus和Neophilaenus campestris。尽管采取了各种管理战略，但某些地区的情况已变得危急。为了支持这些努力，本研究建立了一个考虑整个苛养X.病媒（细菌、寄主植物和昆虫媒介）的动态模型。该模型是根据西班牙阿利坎特省的现场数据、现有文献和一些参数估计进行校准的。这个工具使比较和优化管理策略成为可能。敏感性分析表明，该模型最敏感的变量是新嗜虫成虫死亡率、幼虫生长和死亡率。模型输出复制了受苦藤病影响的作物的产量下降趋势，甚至显示了植物感染和症状出现之间的潜伏期。综上所述，该模型是一个非常有潜力的工具，可用于评估应急和预防措施。

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引用次数: 0

An aggregate potential landscape description of an agent-based exploitation-perception model for social-ecological tipping-point dynamics 基于主体的社会生态临界点动态开发感知模型的总体潜在景观描述

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111433

K.J. Challis

We develop an aggregate potential landscape description of a specific agent-based model of social-ecological tipping-point dynamics. The landscape model is two dimensional, incorporating dynamics in social opinions and biomass availability, with nonseparable coupling potentials to describe exploitation and perception. We find that the landscape model successfully captures key features of the agent-based model, including collective tipping points and transition pathways, but differs in ecological recovery timescales and final states. These results demonstrate how an aggregate potential landscape model can be implemented for social-ecological dynamics, while emphasising the need for detailed models of two-way feedback and path dependence.

我们开发了一个基于特定主体的社会生态临界点动态模型的总体潜在景观描述。景观模型是二维的，包含了社会意见和生物量可用性的动态，具有不可分离的耦合潜力来描述开发和感知。我们发现景观模型成功地捕获了基于主体的模型的关键特征，包括集体临界点和过渡路径，但在生态恢复的时间尺度和最终状态上有所不同。这些结果表明，在强调需要双向反馈和路径依赖的详细模型的同时，总潜力景观模型可以用于社会生态动力学。

引用次数: 0

Multi-agent simulation for dengue spread forecast: A case study for two Brazilian cities 登革热传播预测的多agent模拟：两个巴西城市的案例研究

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111428

Carlos Victor Dantas Araújo , Fábio Luiz Usberti , Emily Brito de Oliveira , Laura Silva de Assis , Celso Cavellucci

This study introduces a multi-agent-based simulation (MABS) methodology for modeling the transmission spread of the dengue virus. The proposed methodology provides a flexible and adaptable approach to simulate the spread of dengue, accounting for the complex interactions between human populations, mosquitoes, and the environment. By leveraging agent-based modeling techniques, we can capture the stochastic nature of disease transmission and explore the impact of various factors, such as human behavior and vector control interventions. The model’s ability to generate realistic scenarios, even in the face of limited data, makes it a valuable tool for understanding the epidemiology of dengue and informing public health strategies, thus, this approach can also serve as a visualization and decision-support tool. The effectiveness of the proposed MABS framework is validated through its application to the cities of Alto Santo and Limoeiro, Brazil. However, it is easy to adapt to other cities using basic geographic information and historical data to determine optimal parameters.

本研究介绍了一种基于多主体的模拟（MABS）方法，用于模拟登革热病毒的传播传播。提出的方法提供了一种灵活和适应性强的方法来模拟登革热的传播，考虑到人群、蚊子和环境之间复杂的相互作用。通过利用基于主体的建模技术，我们可以捕捉疾病传播的随机性，并探索各种因素的影响，如人类行为和媒介控制干预措施。即使在数据有限的情况下，该模型也能够生成现实情景，这使其成为了解登革热流行病学和告知公共卫生战略的宝贵工具，因此，该方法也可以作为可视化和决策支持工具。通过在巴西Alto Santo和Limoeiro城市的应用，验证了拟议的MABS框架的有效性。然而，利用基本的地理信息和历史数据来确定最优参数，很容易适应其他城市。

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引用次数: 0

Modeling the spatiotemporal effects of ocean acidification and warming on Atlantic sea scallop growth to guide adaptive fisheries management 模拟海洋酸化和变暖对大西洋扇贝生长的时空影响，以指导适应性渔业管理

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111434

Halle M. Berger , Samantha A. Siedlecki , Shannon L. Meseck , Emilien Pousse , Deborah R. Hart , Felipe Soares , Antonie Chute , Catherine M. Matassa

Climate-ready fisheries management requires reliable predictions of species responses to changing conditions across large-scale environmental gradients. Bioenergetic frameworks, such as Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models, relate physiological processes to environmental conditions, enabling predictions of organismal growth under projected climate change conditions. Here, we provide the first large-scale coupling of a DEB model to downscaled regional oceanographic simulations to resolve spatiotemporal changes and reveal how climate stressors emerge at relevant biogeographic, economic, and oceanographic scales. We calibrated our DEB model for the Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) with forcing from a realistic oceanographic and biogeochemical model for the Northeast U.S. continental shelf to predict the effects of ocean acidification (OA) and warming on individual growth historically and over the next century. Our model reproduced observed historical patterns in scallop age at harvest size and maximum size. At mid-century (2035–2050), scallop growth was projected to increase in most areas except the southern Mid-Atlantic, and OA effects were limited to the deep Gulf of Maine. By the end of the century (2080–2095) under a high emissions scenario, scallops were predicted to grow faster but attain smaller maximum sizes. Our results highlight that warming stress is more acute than previously accounted for, particularly in the southern Mid-Atlantic. While warming stress emerges in the south first, OA stress emerges before warming in the north. Together, these emerging stressors compress the spatial range for optimal growth. Altogether, our findings demonstrate the utility of the spatially coupled DEB model as a tool to inform adaptive fisheries management.

适应气候变化的渔业管理需要可靠地预测物种对大尺度环境梯度变化条件的反应。生物能量框架，如动态能量预算（DEB）模型，将生理过程与环境条件联系起来，使预测气候变化条件下的生物生长成为可能。在此，我们首次将DEB模型与缩小尺度的区域海洋学模拟进行了大尺度耦合，以解决时空变化问题，并揭示气候压力源如何在相关的生物地理、经济和海洋学尺度上出现。我们对大西洋扇贝（Placopecten magellanicus）的DEB模型进行了校准，并对美国东北大陆架的现实海洋学和生物地球化学模型进行了强迫，以预测海洋酸化（OA）和变暖对个体生长的历史影响和下个世纪的影响。我们的模型再现了扇贝在收获尺寸和最大尺寸时的年龄观察到的历史模式。在本世纪中叶（2035-2050），预计扇贝的生长将在除大西洋中部南部以外的大多数地区增加，而OA的影响仅限于缅因州的深海湾。到本世纪末（2080-2095年），在高排放情景下，扇贝的生长速度预计会更快，但最大尺寸会更小。我们的研究结果强调，变暖压力比以前所考虑的更为严重，特别是在大西洋中部南部。暖化应力在南方先出现，OA应力在北方先出现。这些新出现的压力因素共同压缩了最佳增长的空间范围。总之，我们的研究结果证明了空间耦合DEB模型作为适应性渔业管理工具的实用性。

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引用次数: 0

Parametric formulas for guiding through biodiversity indices 生物多样性指数指导的参数公式

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111439

Sandrine Pavoine

In ecology, species richness, the number of species, was a pioneer simple formula still currently most widely used as a biodiversity index. Species, functional, and phylogenetic diversity indices then emerged from the feeling that combining species richness with the distribution of species' abundances, functional and/or phylogenetic characteristics could provide indices that are more linked to ecological phenomena than species richness alone. As there are a myriad of indices developed so far, it seems impossible to explore all of them in the limited time of a research study. Selecting a single index or a limited set of indices most relevant to a given study requires methods to facilitate comparisons among indices and among their mathematical properties that reflect their different ways of summarizing biodiversity in a single numeric value. Parametric guiding indices that generalize and connect existing indices trace paths through the jungle of indices. The development of such guiding indices could thus be advantageously strengthened. As a step in this direction, I develop a parametric guiding index that generalize both well-known indices of species diversity and well-known indices of functional/phylogenetic diversity. I show under which conditions the parametric guiding index satisfies some critical mathematical properties: non-negativity; weak species monotonicity; full concentration or full similarity at minimum; evenness in species' abundance or evenness in species' effective originality at maximum; embedding of species richness and diversity. Applying the parametric guiding index on bat diversity, I show that analyzing the mathematical properties of potential biodiversity indices is critical to evaluating their relevance with regards to study objectives in ecology.

在生态学中，物种丰富度，即物种数量，是一个先锋的简单公式，目前仍是最广泛使用的生物多样性指数。物种、功能和系统发育多样性指数来源于将物种丰富度与物种丰富度分布、功能和/或系统发育特征结合起来，可以提供比单独的物种丰富度更能与生态现象联系起来的指标。由于迄今为止开发的指数无数，似乎不可能在有限的研究时间内探索所有这些指数。选择一个单一指数或一组与给定研究最相关的有限指数，需要有方法促进指数之间的比较和它们的数学特性之间的比较，这些特性反映了它们用单一数值总结生物多样性的不同方式。参数化引导指标概括和连接现有指标，在指标丛林中跟踪路径。因此，这些指导性指标的发展可以得到有利的加强。作为这一方向的一步，我开发了一个参数化的指导指数，它概括了已知的物种多样性指数和已知的功能/系统发育多样性指数。在哪些条件下，参数导向指标满足一些关键的数学性质：非负性；弱种单调性；至少完全集中或完全相似；物种丰度的均匀性或物种最大有效独创性的均匀性；物种丰富度和多样性的嵌入。应用蝙蝠多样性参数化指导指数，分析潜在生物多样性指数的数学性质对于评估其与生态学研究目标的相关性至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Optimal urban expansion rates for balancing ecosystem services and economic development in mega-city fringe areas: A modeling framework applied to Huadu district, Guangzhou 特大城市边缘区生态系统服务与经济发展平衡的最优城市扩张率——以广州花都区为例

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111436

Xiaohuan Xie , Qiting Lin , Shengyuan Li , Xin Liu , Zhonghua Gou

Urban expansion in mega-city fringe areas often exacerbates trade-offs between economic development and ecosystem services (ES) degradation. This study introduces a novel integrated modeling framework—System Dynamics (SD)-PLUS-InVEST-Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD)—to simulate and optimize urban expansion rates for balanced economy-ecology outcomes. We develop the Urban Expansion–Ecosystem–Economic Index (UEEEI) as a quantitative metric to evaluate these interactions. Applied to Huadu District, Guangzhou, the framework simulates UEEEI under seven expansion scenarios for 2035: shrinkage (SHRINK), halt (STOP), strong deceleration (SLOW-2), mild deceleration (SLOW-1), baseline (BASED), mild acceleration (FAST-1), and strong acceleration (FAST-2). Model validation shows high accuracy (e.g., PLUS Kappa = 0.82; SD errors <3%). Results reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between UEEEI and expansion rate (R² = 0.929), with SLOW-2 (0–1.414 km²/yr) yielding optimal coordination (UEEEI = 0.844). The framework provides a transferable tool for multi-scenario simulations in urbanizing regions, advancing ecological modeling by coupling land-use dynamics, ES valuation, and socio-economic feedbacks.

大城市边缘地区的城市扩张往往加剧了经济发展与生态系统服务（ES）退化之间的权衡。本文采用系统动力学(SD)-投资-耦合协调度（CCD）模型对城市扩张速度进行模拟和优化，以实现经济-生态的平衡。我们开发了城市扩张-生态系统-经济指数（UEEEI）作为定量度量来评估这些相互作用。该框架以广州市花都区为例，模拟了2035年UEEEI在收缩（SHRINK）、停止（STOP）、强减速（SLOW-2）、弱减速（SLOW-1）、基线（basis）、弱加速（FAST-1）和强加速（FAST-2） 7种扩展场景下的情景。模型验证显示出较高的准确性（例如，PLUS Kappa = 0.82； SD误差<；3%）。结果表明，UEEEI与扩张速率呈倒u型关系（R²= 0.929），其中以SLOW-2 （0 ~ 1.414 km²/yr）为最优协调（UEEEI = 0.844）。该框架为城市化地区的多情景模拟提供了一个可转移的工具，通过耦合土地利用动态、ES评估和社会经济反馈来推进生态建模。

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引用次数: 0

How to incorporate coastal wetland blue carbon into China’s carbon market: Evolutionary game analysis on behavior strategies of multiple stakeholders 海岸带湿地蓝碳如何融入中国碳市场：多利益相关者行为策略的演化博弈分析

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111437

Jingmei Li , Shunqi Jia , Jingzhu Shan , Zhuqing Zhuang

The restart of China’s Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) program has kicked off the establishment of a national carbon market that combines both mandatory and voluntary mechanisms. The incorporation of coastal wetland blue carbon into China’s carbon market to form a coastal wetland blue carbon trading market is an important supplement to the CCER trading system and helps meet the market demand for high-quality carbon sink projects. Coastal wetland blue carbon, as a public good, involves the interests of multiple stakeholders in its trading, making it a complex dynamic game process. This paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model involving the local government (LG), the coastal wetland blue carbon project developer (DCB) and the carbon emission reduction enterprise (CEE). Through simulation, this paper reveals the factors influencing the strategy choices of these stakeholders, aiming to increase their willingness to participate in blue carbon trading. The results show that the investment and postmaintenance costs of coastal wetland blue carbon project development are critical factors influencing the DCB’s strategy choice. The lag in the ex post allocation of carbon emission quotas affects the CEE’s willingness to purchase blue carbon. Furthermore, the blue carbon quota offset rate has a dual effect on system stability, requiring a dynamic balance with the project declaration costs. Finally, a policy of low subsidies for CEE combined with fines for excess carbon emissions, along with project development support for DCB, can help the system reach the ideal state. These findings provide references for promoting the incorporation of coastal wetland blue carbon into China’s carbon market.

中国认证减排（CCER）计划的重启开启了强制性和自愿性相结合的全国碳市场的建立。将滨海湿地蓝碳纳入中国碳市场，形成滨海湿地蓝碳交易市场，是对CCER交易体系的重要补充，有助于满足市场对优质碳汇项目的需求。滨海湿地蓝碳作为一种公共产品，其交易涉及多个利益相关者的利益，是一个复杂的动态博弈过程。本文构建了一个由地方政府（LG）、滨海湿地蓝碳项目开发商（DCB）和碳减排企业（CEE）三方参与的演化博弈模型。本文通过仿真，揭示了影响这些利益相关者策略选择的因素，旨在提高他们参与蓝色碳交易的意愿。结果表明，滨海湿地蓝碳项目开发的投资和后期维护成本是影响滨海湿地开发银行战略选择的关键因素。碳排放配额事后分配的滞后影响了中东欧国家购买蓝碳的意愿。此外，蓝碳配额抵消率对系统稳定性有双重影响，需要与项目申报成本动态平衡。最后，对中东欧实行低补贴政策，并对超额碳排放进行罚款，同时对DCB的项目开发提供支持，可以帮助该系统达到理想状态。研究结果为推动滨海湿地蓝碳纳入中国碳市场提供了参考。

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引用次数: 0

Ocean acidification in Massachusetts bay and Boston harbor: Insights from a 1-D modeling approach 马萨诸塞湾和波士顿港的海洋酸化：从1-D建模方法的见解

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111459

Lu Wang , Changsheng Chen , Joseph Salisbury , Siqi Li , Robert C. Beardsley , Jackie Motyka

Massachusetts Bay (MB)/Boston Harbor (BH) in the northeastern United States has reduced buffering capability, making it highly vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA). We applied the U.S. Northeast Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Model (NeBEM), integrating the unstructured grid, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model with a modified European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), to investigate seasonal and interannual OA variability through one-dimensional (1-D) experiments. Objectives were to (a) evaluate model skill in reproducing observed seasonal cycles of OA-related variables, particularly pCO₂ and pH, in shallow and deep regions, and (b) assess sensitivity to parameterizations and algorithms for calculating dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), pCO₂, and pH. The 1-D NeBEM reproduced variability of nutrients, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a, pCO₂, and pH at the deep outer bay site, where air-sea interactions dominate, but failed at the shallow inner bay site due to the absence of river discharge-driven advection. Of TA algorithms tested, the semi-diagnostic method best captured observed seasonal pCO₂ variation, achieving the highest correlation and lowest root mean square error, although all methods performed similarly for pH. Comparisons with multi-linear regression methods showed that empirical models are highly sensitive to calibration set. Mechanistic analysis indicated that TA variability is mainly regulated by nitrification and net community production (NCP), while DIC variability is driven primarily by NCP. Atmospheric CO₂ loading was the first-order contributor to DIC change in magnitude. However, it has decreased in MB over the past two decades, in contrast to regional and global trends. Therefore, it is not a major driver of OA progression in this system.

美国东北部的马萨诸塞湾(MB)/波士顿港（BH）的缓冲能力下降，使其极易受到海洋酸化（OA）的影响。采用美国东北生物地球化学和生态系统模型（NeBEM），结合非结构化网格、有限体积群落海洋模型和改进的欧洲区域海洋生态系统模型（ERSEM），通过一维实验研究了OA的季节和年际变化。目的是(a)评估模型在再现观测到的浅区和深区oa相关变量（特别是pCO2和pH）的季节周期方面的能力，以及(b)评估对参数化和计算溶解无机碳（DIC）、总碱度（TA）、pCO2和pH的算法的敏感性。1-D NeBEM重现了外海湾深区营养物、溶解氧、叶绿素-a、pCO2和pH的变异性，其中空气-海相互作用占主导地位。但在浅水内湾场地，由于缺少水流驱动的平流而失败。在测试的TA算法中，半诊断方法最好地捕获了观测到的季节pCO2变化，获得了最高的相关性和最低的均方根误差，尽管所有方法对ph的表现相似。与多元线性回归方法的比较表明，经验模型对校准集高度敏感。机制分析表明，TA变异性主要受硝化和净群落产量（NCP）调控，而DIC变异性主要受NCP驱动。大气CO₂负荷是DIC变化幅度的一阶贡献者。然而，与区域和全球趋势相反，在过去二十年中，结核结核发病率有所下降。因此，它不是该系统OA进展的主要驱动因素。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the spatial interaction relationship between new-type urbanization and ecological vulnerability 探索新型城镇化与生态脆弱性的空间互动关系

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111427

Shijie Dong , Hui An , Shihao Dong

Clarifying the intricate relationship between urbanization and ecological environment from a spatial interaction perspective is important for advancing sustainable development. This study constructed a comprehensive spatial interaction model integrating the coupling coordination degree model, bivariate global spatial autocorrelation model, and geographically and temporally weighted regression model. Taking the east of Hu Line in China as study area, this study investigated the spatial interaction between new-type urbanization (NTU) and ecological vulnerability (EV). The results show that: (1) From 2002 to 2022, the average EV index increased from 0.330 to 0.346, and average NTU index increased from 0.368 to 0.438. Both NTU and EV exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. (2) Coupling coordination degree (CCD) level between NTU and EV evolved from moderate uncoordination to basic coordination, with proportion of synchronous development increasing from 48 % to 60 %. However, regions with relatively high CCD levels still faced ecological lag. (3) Environmental urbanization exerted a negative effect on EV, with the effect magnitude changing from −0.17 to −0.24. Ecosystem structure and function vulnerability exerted a negative effect on NTU, with the effect magnitude changing from −0.18 to −0.32. (4) The spatial distribution of interactive effects between NTU and EV exhibited a clear clustering pattern. This study enhances understanding of the spatial interaction between urbanization and ecological environment, and provides evidence for planning urban growth and mitigating EV.

从空间互动的角度厘清城市化与生态环境的复杂关系，对于推进可持续发展具有重要意义。本文构建了耦合协调度模型、二元全局空间自相关模型和时空加权回归模型相结合的综合空间相互作用模型。以中国胡线以东为研究区，研究了新型城镇化与生态脆弱性的空间相互作用。结果表明：(1)2002 - 2022年，平均EV指数从0.330上升到0.346，平均NTU指数从0.368上升到0.438。NTU和EV均表现出显著的空间异质性。(2) NTU与EV的耦合协调度（CCD）水平由中度不协调演变为基本协调，同步发展比例由48%上升到60%；而CCD水平较高的地区仍然存在生态滞后性。(3)环境城市化对电动汽车产生负向影响，影响幅度在- 0.17 ~ - 0.24之间。生态系统结构和功能脆弱性对NTU产生负向影响，影响幅度在- 0.18 ~ - 0.32之间。(4) NTU与EV交互效应的空间分布呈现明显的聚类特征。该研究有助于加深对城市化与生态环境空间互动关系的认识，为规划城市增长和减缓EV提供依据。

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