Ecological Modelling最新文献_第7页

Effect of forage alternatives on the carbon footprint, productivity, and profitability of sheep production systems in dryland Mediterranean zone of Chile: A simulation model

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110958

Paula Toro-Mujica , Antón García Martínez

Context

Climate change has reduced rangeland production and constrained sheep production in Chile's Mediterranean region. This article presents a simulation model to evaluate new forage alternatives and their effects on current small-farm sheep systems.

Objective

The objective was to determine how the inclusion of new forage alternatives and associated management modifications affect the carbon footprint (CF), productivity, and profitability of sheep production systems.

Methods

Survey and field data were used to develop a simulation model that seeks to balance energy and protein nutrition in response to variations in stocking rates, supplementation rates, and pasture management in comparison with the base scenario. Outputs include sheep production, CF, and economic analyses of various factorial combinations.

Results and conclusions

In the basal scenario, the carbon footprint (CF) was 9.57 ± 0.45 kg CO2-eq/kg live weight (LW) when soil carbon (C) sequestration was not considered. However, it decreased to 6.7 ± 0.49 when accounting for soil C sequestration. Although financial income was negative, operational income was positive due to the undervaluation of the grassland contribution. The use of triticale grain resulted in the lowest CF, but in economic terms, alfalfa hay outperformed all supplements. It is important to recognize the value of native grasslands if traditional systems are to persist.

Significance

In the context of current land use practices and economic conditions, the simulation model revealed a limited range of available tools to increase technical efficiency and minimize carbon footprint (CF) when the native grasslands are not valued. The model is well-suited to explore alternative scenarios under variable economic conditions and can provide valuable insights to inform policy decisions.

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引用次数: 0

Metabolic organization across scales of space and time

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110951

Romain Lavaud , Nina Marn , Tiago Domingos , Ramón Filgueira , Konstadia Lika , Kim Rakel , Tin Klanjšček

引用次数: 0

Integrated modeling framework (FVCOM-ICM/Toxi) to simulate the fate and transport of polychlorinated biphenyls in urban estuaries–Case study for Puget Sound, WA 综合建模框架（FVCOM-ICM/Toxi）模拟多氯联苯在城市河口的命运和迁移——以华盛顿州普吉特湾为例

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110959

Lakshitha Premathilake , Tarang Khangaonkar , James West , Sandra O'Neill , Louisa Harding , C. Andrew James , Sukyong Yun , Kevin Bogue

Puget Sound is an urban estuary that exhibits persistent polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) contamination despite years of remediation efforts. For robust management actions, determining the timing, location, and magnitude of PCB loading sources and transport pathways using field data alone is challenging due to complex water circulation and biogeochemical processes. This study aims to develop an integrated modeling framework that couples complex estuarian circulation with biogeochemical processes and associated interactions with PCB kinetics. The model simulates PCB accumulation in the lower tropic food web, demonstrating PCB intrusion into primary producers and its biomagnification in pelagic consumers. The PCB data from a new field survey was used to calibrate/validate the new PCB modeling framework for Puget Sound. The software program of the modeling framework is available to the user community for the applications of toxic contaminants transport in marine waters.

普吉特海湾是一个城市河口，显示持久性多氯联苯（多氯联苯）污染，尽管多年的补救努力。为了采取强有力的管理措施，由于复杂的水循环和生物地球化学过程，仅使用现场数据确定PCB加载源和运输途径的时间、位置和大小是具有挑战性的。本研究旨在建立一个综合建模框架，将复杂的河口环流与生物地球化学过程以及与多氯联苯动力学相关的相互作用耦合起来。该模型模拟了低热带食物网中多氯联苯的积累，展示了多氯联苯侵入初级生产者及其在远洋消费者中的生物放大。来自新的实地调查的PCB数据用于校准/验证Puget Sound的新PCB建模框架。建模框架的软件程序可供用户社区使用，用于有毒污染物在海水中的迁移应用。

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引用次数: 0

The different ways to operationalise the social in applied models and simulations of sustainability science: A contribution for the enhancement of good modelling practices 可持续性科学的社会应用模型和模拟的不同操作方式：对增强良好建模实践的贡献

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110952

Ronald B. Bialozyt , Martina Roß-Nickoll , Richard Ottermanns , Jens Jetzkowitz

There are several concepts out there, which describe modelling as a circular process with several rounds of iteration. The aim of these concepts is to structure the process and gain insights into the various steps carried out during a modelling project. It is common to all these concepts that they are created by modellers themselves, hence the focus is on generating a good modelling practice (GMP) in standardising technical aspect. However, modelling must also be considered as a social process, which have so far only been marginally considered in these GMP protocols.

Therefore, we explored the different approaches to incorporate the social aspects into GMP of interdisciplinary applied modelling projects in sustainability science with reference to sociological knowledge. While discussing the social dimensions in the modelling process, we found that two perspectives need to be distinguished, namely a structural and a procedural one. From a structural perspective, various approaches have developed to model interactions and feedbacks between ecological and social aspects of a sustainability problem. Among the best known is the concept of the social-ecological system, which makes it possible to grasp the complexity of reality in ecological and social subsystems that are intertwined within each other. From a procedural perspective, several components describing decision points and feedback processes along the modelling pathway have been identified. This forms a new GMP scheme different from the so far published ones as it incorporates all the feedback loops active during the modelling process. It therefore breaks the so far common circular approach. The new scheme emphasises the fact that every model formation is a social, communicative process at all phases of a modelling project.

Additionally, we have gained new insights into the path dependency of model structures and identified an extended hierarchical structure of social modelling steps. Most importantly, we describe how the iterative application of these two perspectives should be used to improve the GMP of an active modelling project.

有几个概念将建模描述为具有几轮迭代的循环过程。这些概念的目的是构建过程，并深入了解建模项目中执行的各个步骤。所有这些概念都是由建模者自己创建的，因此重点是在标准化技术方面产生良好的建模实践（GMP）。然而，建模也必须被视为一个社会过程，到目前为止，在这些GMP协议中只被略微考虑。因此，我们以社会学知识为参考，探索了将社会方面纳入可持续发展科学跨学科应用建模项目GMP的不同方法。在讨论建模过程中的社会维度时，我们发现需要区分两个视角，即结构视角和程序视角。从结构的角度来看，已经发展了各种方法来模拟可持续性问题的生态和社会方面之间的相互作用和反馈。其中最著名的是社会生态系统的概念，它使人们有可能掌握相互交织在一起的生态和社会子系统的现实复杂性。从程序的角度来看，已经确定了沿着建模途径描述决策点和反馈过程的几个组件。这形成了一个新的GMP方案，不同于迄今为止发表的方案，因为它包含了建模过程中所有活跃的反馈回路。因此，它打破了迄今为止常见的循环方法。新方案强调了这样一个事实，即在建模项目的所有阶段，每个模型形成都是一个社交、交流的过程。此外，我们对模型结构的路径依赖性有了新的认识，并确定了社会建模步骤的扩展层次结构。最重要的是，我们描述了这两个视角的迭代应用应如何用于改进活动建模项目的GMP。

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引用次数: 0

Regional differences in salmon post-smolt migration routes can explain variation in individual growth at sea 鲑鱼蜕皮后迁移路线的地区差异可以解释个体在海上生长的差异

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110955

Kjell Rong Utne , Erik Askov Mousing

The low number of Atlantic salmon sampled at sea makes it necessary to use alternative methods to understand their migration routes and interactions with the marine environment. In this study, we use a newly developed individual based model to simulate the ocean migration of Norwegian post-smolts during their first summer in the sea. The model is coupled with a high-resolution hydrodynamic model and dynamic prey fields to investigate how interactions between post-smolts and the dynamic marine environment in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean affect salmon growth and survival. The migration strategy leading to the best fit between the simulated geographic distribution and catches of post-smolts at sea, is to migrate away from shallow, coastal regions and to follow surface currents. Post-smolts originating from the middle parts of Norway can quickly reach the good feeding areas west of the Norwegian continental shelf, while post-smolts leaving rivers further south must start the marine life-stage migrating through the North Sea, where the prey abundance is low, before reaching the feeding areas in the Norwegian Sea. The results indicate that the first weeks at sea is a critical period for post-smolts as the available prey abundance is low, especially for smolts leaving rivers in southern and western Norway. A rapid northward migration to the central or northern Norwegian Sea is associated with faster growth for smolt emigrating from rivers flowing into the North Sea. The presented model is a first attempt to couple salmon and their marine prey in a spatiotemporal model covering the Northeast Atlantic Ocean.

在海上采样的大西洋鲑鱼数量很少，因此有必要使用其他方法来了解它们的迁移路线以及与海洋环境的相互作用。在本研究中，我们利用新开发的基于个体的模型模拟挪威后鲑鱼在其入海后第一个夏季的海洋洄游。该模型与高分辨率流体动力学模型和动态猎物场相结合，研究后鲑鱼与东北大西洋动态海洋环境之间的相互作用如何影响鲑鱼的生长和存活。模拟的鲑鱼后代地理分布与海上捕获量之间的最佳匹配关系是，鲑鱼后代远离浅海、沿海地区，跟随海面洋流迁移。来自挪威中部地区的后鲻鱼可迅速到达挪威大陆架以西的良好觅食区，而离开河流向南洄游的后鲻鱼则必须在到达挪威海觅食区之前，先经过猎物丰度较低的北海，开始海洋生命阶段的洄游。研究结果表明，对于离开挪威南部和西部河流的幼鱼而言，由于可获得的猎物丰度较低，因此在海上的最初几周是幼鱼的关键时期。从流入北海的河流洄游到挪威海中部或北部的幼鱼在迅速北上的过程中生长速度较快。该模型是首次尝试在一个涵盖东北大西洋的时空模型中将鲑鱼及其海洋猎物联系起来。

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引用次数: 0

A multi-objective optimization model for cropland design considering profit, biodiversity, and ecosystem services 考虑利润、生物多样性和生态系统服务的耕地设计多目标优化模型

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110954

Caleb H. Geissler , Nathan L. Haan , Bruno Basso , Ames Fowler , Douglas A. Landis , Tyler J. Lark , Christos T. Maravelias

More sustainable agricultural methods are needed to alleviate the decreases in biodiversity and ecosystem services that have occurred because of industrial agriculture. One such method is the inclusion of alternative crops into croplands that can support biodiversity, reduce erosion and chemical runoff, and sequester carbon in the soil. However, the question of where such crops should be planted to balance competing economic and environmental objectives remains open. To this end, we develop a mixed-integer quadratically constrained program to optimize the layout of a cropland considering economic, biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality objectives. We include spatially varying fertilization as a decision variable in addition to crop establishment location. We further include the effect of core area and edges between different crops on biodiversity. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, we apply it to an example field, showing how the optimal cropland design changes as a decision-maker prioritizes different objectives and as edges have different impacts on biodiversity.

要缓解工业化农业造成的生物多样性和生态系统服务减少的问题，需要更多可持续的农业方法。其中一种方法是在耕地中种植替代作物，这些作物可以支持生物多样性，减少侵蚀和化学径流，并在土壤中固碳。然而，应在何处种植此类作物，以平衡相互竞争的经济和环境目标，这个问题仍然悬而未决。为此，我们开发了一个混合整数二次约束程序，以优化考虑经济、生物多样性、温室气体排放和水质目标的耕地布局。除了作物种植地点外，我们还将空间变化的施肥量作为决策变量。我们还进一步考虑了核心区和不同作物之间的边缘对生物多样性的影响。为了证明该模型的适用性，我们将其应用于一个示例田地，展示了当决策者优先考虑不同目标以及边缘对生物多样性产生不同影响时，最佳耕地设计是如何变化的。

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引用次数: 0

Response of gross primary productivity to flash droughts on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原总初级生产力对山洪暴发干旱的响应

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110953

Tao Sun, Xinhua Zhang, Yujie Cai, Chun Yang, Zhurui Gao

Flash droughts are expected to become the 'new normal' in the future, significantly affecting the carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The rapid onset, swift intensification, and short duration of flash droughts make their impact on terrestrial carbon dynamics challenging to capture. To date, the response pattern of regional terrestrial carbon dynamics to flash droughts on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau (QTP) remains unclear. Utilizing ERA5-Land soil moisture data, we identified numerous sub-seasonal flash drought events on the QTP by analyzing the decline rate of soil moisture and drought duration. Based on the dynamics of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) gross primary productivity (GPP) changes observed during flash droughts, we proposed the Response Intensity Index (RII) to quantify the intensity of GPP responses to these events. Additionally, through partial correlation analysis, we examined the effects of climatic factors on GPP during flash droughts. We found that areas with high frequencies of flash droughts are distributed in the northern, eastern, and southeastern margins of the QTP (more than 1.6 times/year), while areas with low frequencies are located in the western region (less than 0.4 times/year). GPP significantly responded to 50.36% of the flash drought events on the QTP. The intensity of GPP response varied significantly among vegetation types, with meadow GPP exhibiting the highest responsiveness (RII of 1.867) and forest GPP the lowest (RII of 1.585). Climatic factors exerted significant effects on GPP during flash droughts, with variations observed across different vegetation types. Differences in GPP response to flash droughts may be attributed to vegetation type, climatic conditions, and the frequency and duration of flash droughts. These findings provide valuable insights for managing carbon sequestration in ecosystems, offering essential guidance for future environmental management, climate change adaptation, and ecological conservation.

预计山洪暴发将成为未来的 "新常态"，对陆地生态系统的碳动态产生重大影响。由于山洪暴发迅速、加剧迅速、持续时间短，因此很难捕捉其对陆地碳动态的影响。迄今为止，青藏高原区域陆地碳动态对山洪灾害的响应模式仍不清楚。我们利用ERA5-Land土壤水分数据，通过分析土壤水分下降率和干旱持续时间，确定了青藏高原多次亚季节性闪旱事件。基于中分辨率成像分光仪（MODIS）在山洪暴发期间观测到的总初级生产力（GPP）的动态变化，我们提出了响应强度指数（RII）来量化GPP对这些事件的响应强度。此外，我们还通过偏相关分析，研究了山洪暴发期间气候因素对 GPP 的影响。我们发现，山洪暴发频率高的地区分布在 QTP 的北部、东部和东南部边缘（超过 1.6 次/年），而频率低的地区则位于西部地区（低于 0.4 次/年）。50.36% 的 QTP 暴旱事件对 GPP 有明显响应。不同植被类型的 GPP 响应强度差异很大，草甸 GPP 响应强度最高（RII 为 1.867），森林 GPP 响应强度最低（RII 为 1.585）。气候因素对山洪暴发干旱期间的全球升温潜能值有显著影响，不同植被类型之间也存在差异。植被类型、气候条件以及山洪暴发的频率和持续时间可能会导致对山洪暴发的 GPP 响应的差异。这些发现为生态系统的碳封存管理提供了宝贵的见解，为未来的环境管理、气候变化适应和生态保护提供了重要指导。

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引用次数: 0

A comparative study of production systems in the Goharkuh Taftan complex utilising emergy and economic analysis 利用应急和经济分析对哥哈库赫塔夫坦建筑群的生产系统进行比较研究

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110947

Mahdi Motakefi, Mehdi Dahmardeh, Seyed Ahmad Ghanbari, Mohammad Reza Asgharipour

This study evaluated the sustainability of five agricultural production systems (wheat, barley, alfalfa, cotton, and Pistachio) in the Goharkuh Taftan complex using emergy assessment and economic analysis. Pistachio exhibited the highest gross return (1200 million Rials/ha), net profit (850 million Rials/ha), benefit-to-cost ratio (3.43), transformity (Tr) (9.53E + 05 sej/j), specific emergy (2.37E + 10 sej/g), renewability index (%R) (15.12 %), modified emergy sustainability index (0.207), modified emergy yield ratio (1.397), and the lowest modified environmental loading ratio (5.61) among the various products within the complex, as determined through the integration of emergy assessment and economic analysis outcomes. The standard Environmental Loading Ratio (ELR) (143.16), standard Emergy Sustainability Index (ESI) (0.008), Emergy Index for Sustainable Development (EISD) (0.0028), and Emergy Index of Agricultural Product Safety (EIPS) (0.437) of this product were found to be in a favourable condition. On the other hand, cotton exhibited the least favourable performance in various emergy indicators, including the %R (2.07 %), ELR (344.13), ESI (0.003), EISD (0.0021), and EIPS (0.198) within the given context. The alfalfa product exhibiting the most unfavourable economic indicators demonstrated the highest EIPS (0.554) and the lowest Tr (1.34E + 05 sej/j) value among the various systems within the complex. Wheat and barley had similar emergy performance but were less profitable than pistachio and cotton. Reducing reliance on non-renewable resources and lowering costs for land, labor, seed, and machinery improved both emergy and economic indicators. The study revealed a trade-off between emergy and economic indicators in complex production systems. To enhance sustainability, balancing renewable and non-renewable resource use is crucial.

本研究采用应急评估和经济分析方法，对 Goharkuh Taftan 地区的五种农业生产系统（小麦、大麦、紫花苜蓿、棉花和开心果）的可持续性进行了评估。阿月浑子的毛收益（1.2 亿里亚尔/公顷）、净利润（8.5 亿里亚尔/公顷）、效益成本比（3.43）、转化率（Tr）（9.53E + 05 sej/j）、比紧急能量（2.37E + 10 sej/g）、可再生指数（%R）（15.12%）、修正紧急能量可持续性指数（0.在综合了紧急能源评估和经济分析结果后确定的综合体各种产品中，该产品的紧急能源可持续性指数（0.207）、修正紧急能源产出比（1.397）和修正环境负荷比（5.61）最低。该产品的标准环境负荷率（ELR）（143.16）、标准应急可持续性指数（ESI）（0.008）、可持续发展应急指数（EISD）（0.0028）和农产品安全应急指数（EIPS）（0.437）均处于有利状态。另一方面，棉花在各种应急指标方面的表现最差，包括%R（2.07 %）、ELR（344.13）、ESI（0.003）、EISD（0.0021）和 EIPS（0.198）。经济指标最差的紫花苜蓿产品的 EIPS（0.554）最高，Tr（1.34E + 05 sej/j）最低。小麦和大麦的产量表现相似，但利润低于开心果和棉花。减少对不可再生资源的依赖，降低土地、劳动力、种子和机械成本，改善了紧急能源和经济指标。这项研究揭示了在复杂的生产系统中紧急能源和经济指标之间的权衡。要提高可持续性，平衡可再生资源和不可再生资源的使用至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Using a temperature-dependent population model to predict the population growth rates of grass carp across North America 利用温度相关种群模型预测北美草鱼的种群增长率

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110945

Madison E Brook , Kim Cuddington

Invasion risk and impact are related to the population growth rate of newly introduced species. We parameterized a temperature dependent age- and size-structured integral projection model (IPM) to predict the population growth rate of invasive grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) in North America. We formulated models using available data on temperature dependence in the age at maturity and fecundity for grass carp and found a small increase in population growth rate at higher temperatures. However, these models did not include potential temperature-dependence in other life history variables (e.g., somatic growth rate, maximum size, and survival) for which there is no data specific to grass carp. Inclusion of simulated temperature dependence in these important variables can reverse the trend in population growth rate and temperature, depending on which combination of life history traits are temperature-dependent. Elasticity analysis highlighted adult survival as a good management target to keep population growth rates small in all cases. We suggest that future studies regarding climate impacts on population growth will require detailed study of the impacts of temperature dependence on various life history traits in order to reach robust conclusions.

入侵风险和影响与新引进物种的种群增长率有关。我们对与温度相关的年龄和大小结构积分预测模型（IPM）进行了参数化，以预测北美入侵草鱼（Ctenopharyngodon idella）的种群增长率。我们利用现有的草鱼成熟年龄和受精率随温度变化的数据建立了模型，发现温度越高，种群增长率越小。但是，这些模型没有包括其他生命史变量（如体细胞生长率、最大体型和存活率）的潜在温度依赖性，而这些变量没有草鱼的特定数据。将模拟的温度依赖性纳入这些重要变量中，可以扭转种群增长率和温度的趋势，这取决于哪些生命史特征组合与温度有关。弹性分析强调，在所有情况下，成鱼存活率都是保持较小种群增长率的良好管理目标。我们建议，未来有关气候对种群增长影响的研究需要详细研究温度依赖性对各种生活史特征的影响，以便得出可靠的结论。

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引用次数: 0

Calibrating multi-constraint ensemble ecosystem models using genetic algorithms and Approximate Bayesian Computation: A case study of rewilding at the Knepp Estate, UK 利用遗传算法和近似贝叶斯计算校准多约束集合生态系统模型：英国克奈普庄园野化案例研究

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110948

Emily Neil, Ernesto Carrella, Richard Bailey

This paper presents a new ensemble ecosystem model (EEM) which predicts the impacts of species reintroductions and optimises potential future management interventions at the Knepp Estate rewilding project, UK. Compared to other EEMs, Knepp has a relatively high level of data availability that can be used to constrain the model, including time-series abundance data and expert knowledge. This could improve the realism of outputs and enable more nuanced and context-specific management intervention recommendations. Calibrating EEMs can be challenging, however, and as the number of constraints increases, so does the complexity of the model fitting process. We use a new Genetic Algorithm-Approximate Bayesian Computation (GA-ABC) approach wherein GA outputs are used to inform the prior distributions for ABC. To reduce the parameter search space, we fixed twelve parameters - the consumer self-interaction strengths

α_{i, i}

and negative growth rates – based on theoretical assumptions. While the GA-ABC method proved effective at efficiently searching the parameter space and optimising multiple constraints, it was computationally intensive and struggled to identify a broad range of outputs. Ultimately, this led to an ensemble of models with similar trajectories. Several potential ways to address this are discussed. Our results reinforce the findings of previous studies that the EEM methodology has potential for guiding conservation management and decision-making. Outputs suggest that reintroducing large herbivores was key to maintaining a diverse grassland-scrubland-woodland ecosystem, and optimisation experiments informed species characteristics and stocking densities needed to achieve specific goals. Ultimately, refining the EEM methodology to improve calibration and facilitate the integration of additional data will enhance its utility for ecosystem management, helping to achieve more effective and informed outcomes.

本文介绍了一种新的集合生态系统模型（EEM），该模型可预测物种重新引入的影响，并优化英国克奈普庄园野化项目未来潜在的管理干预措施。与其他 EEM 相比，Knepp 的数据可用性相对较高，可用于约束模型，包括时间序列丰度数据和专家知识。这可以提高输出结果的真实性，并提出更细致入微、更符合具体情况的管理干预建议。然而，校准 EEM 可能具有挑战性，随着约束条件数量的增加，模型拟合过程的复杂性也会增加。我们采用了一种新的遗传算法-近似贝叶斯计算（GA-ABC）方法，利用遗传算法的输出为 ABC 的先验分布提供信息。为了缩小参数搜索空间，我们根据理论假设固定了 12 个参数--消费者自我互动强度 αi,i 和负增长率。虽然 GA-ABC 方法在有效搜索参数空间和优化多个约束条件方面被证明是有效的，但它的计算量很大，而且难以确定广泛的输出。最终，这导致了具有相似轨迹的模型集合。本文讨论了解决这一问题的几种潜在方法。我们的研究结果巩固了之前的研究结果，即 EEM 方法具有指导保护管理和决策的潜力。研究结果表明，重新引入大型食草动物是维持草地-灌木林-林地生态系统多样性的关键，而优化实验则为实现特定目标所需的物种特征和放养密度提供了信息。最终，完善 EEM 方法以改进校准并促进更多数据的整合，将提高其在生态系统管理方面的实用性，帮助实现更有效、更明智的结果。

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引用次数: 0