Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Integrating equity and justice in marine ecosystem models: An incremental but meaningful approach","authors":"Sieme Bossier,&nbsp;Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111058","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The notion of equity is a complex and multifaceted one, and it can be difficult to operationalize in a meaningful way. Nevertheless, the importance of integrating equity and justice concerns in environmental management is quickly being recognized across disciplines, including ocean sciences that have long engaged with complex dynamic systems. Ecosystem modelling approaches can be particularly helpful given their ability to incorporate a wide range of concepts, information, and management goals. However, including social equity in ecosystem models is perceived as a difficult task and most marine ecosystem models still mainly focus on fish stock and ecological dynamics and outcomes, ignoring social impacts, which risks losing opportunities to help improve the lives of fisherfolk and identify meaningful solutions. Here, we propose ways to integrate equity in ecosystem models at three different levels. From more to less demanding, we can: (1) explicitly model equity, (2) slightly adjust existing models to incorporate key human components, and (3) ask new questions with existing models. As we move along these steppingstones, we must listen and learn from community partners and social scientists on what data are needed, how to handle ‘unconventional’ data types, and what indicators are most useful. To do so, we invite other modellers to start thinking differently, dare to ask different questions, and bring knowledge together so that our ecosystem models better represent the realities we see.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"503 ","pages":"Article 111058"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the population dynamics of Rift Valley fever virus mosquito vectors in the western Mediterranean Basin","authors":"Alex Drouin ,&nbsp;Thomas Balenghien ,&nbsp;Benoit Durand ,&nbsp;Carles Aranda ,&nbsp;Amal Bennouna ,&nbsp;Ali Bouattour ,&nbsp;Said C Boubidi ,&nbsp;Annamaria Conte ,&nbsp;Sarah Delacour ,&nbsp;Maria Goffredo ,&nbsp;Oumnia Himmi ,&nbsp;Grégory L'Ambert ,&nbsp;Francis Schaffner ,&nbsp;Véronique Chevalier","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic vector-borne disease mainly transmitted by mosquitoes, and present in Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian Ocean. The endemic situation in Mauritania, and the recent outbreaks in Libya have raised concerns about the potential spread of the virus in the western Mediterranean Basin, where competent mosquitoes are present. However, given the large diversity of climates and landscapes in this region, the areas and periods at risk of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission remain unknown. Vector abundance is one of the drivers of arboviruses transmission, therefore knowledge on mosquito species distributions and population dynamics is needed to implement surveillance and to assess the risk of RVFV circulation. Here, we adapted a published modelling framework of mosquito population dynamics to five potential RVFV vectors in the western Mediterranean Basin (<em>Aedes</em> <em>caspius, Aedes</em> <em>detritus, Aedes</em> <em>vexans, Culex</em> <em>pipiens</em> and <em>Culex</em> <em>theileri</em>). The mechanistic model was designed with a daily time step and a 0.1° x 0.1° spatial resolution and takes temperature and precipitations data as inputs, along with published vector distribution maps. We used mosquito trapping data from Spain, France, Italy and Morocco to calibrate the model, and we produced monthly maps of abundance of the five vectors for the whole studied area. We then evaluated the model performances by assessing the correlation between field data and model predictions. Finally, we performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the main influential parameters. The model was able to reproduce most of the abundance peaks for the five mosquito species. Goodness-of-fit was high for <em>Aedes</em> species, especially for <em>Ae.</em> <em>caspius</em>, a highly competent mosquito for RVFV transmission, but lower for <em>Culex</em> species, with potential overpredictions in some regions. More knowledge is required about the presence and abundance of potential RVFV vectors in the Mediterranean Basin to improve predictions. However, this first model allows to identify seasons and areas with high vectors abundances that could be used in the future for surveillance of the disease.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"502 ","pages":"Article 111013"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncertainties in future ecosystem services under land and climate scenarios: The case of erosion in the Alps","authors":"Nicolas Elleaume ,&nbsp;Bruno Locatelli ,&nbsp;David Makowski ,&nbsp;Améline Vallet ,&nbsp;Jérôme Poulenard ,&nbsp;Johan Oszwald ,&nbsp;Sandra Lavorel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How ecosystems will provide ecosystem services in the future given uncertain changes in climate and land use is an open question that challenges decision-making on adaptation to climate change. Prospective assessments of ecosystem services should carefully include and communicate the sources of uncertainties that affect the predictions. We used the ecosystem service of soil protection against erosion in the Maurienne Valley (French Alps) as a case study to illustrate how several sources of uncertainties can be integrated into an assessment of future ecosystem service supply. We modeled future erosion rates in the Maurienne Valley for years 2020 and 2085 using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and six climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. We quantified how the ecosystem service supply will be likely affected by climate and land-use change, separately and jointly. We assessed the effects of different sources of uncertainty on projected erosion rates: scenarios, climate models choice, and methods to parametrize the ecosystem service model. Land-use change increased erosion (+ 3.3 ton.ha-1.yr-1 on average, with significant increases in 81 % of the study site), while climate change contributed to a slight reduction (-0.21 ton.ha-1.yr-1 on average with significant decrease 20 % of the study site). The uncertainty of the ecosystem service model parameterization explained 93 % of the variance in erosion values. Furthermore, uncertainty linked to climate models and future scenarios contributed almost equally to the variability in the direction (positive or negative) of erosion change (41 % and 38 % respectively). The uncertainties surrounding the direction of future changes in ecosystem services come mainly from uncertainties in climate models and future scenarios rather than from uncertainties in the ecosystem service model parameters. Assessing the likelihood of future changes in ecosystem services helps prioritize locations where adaptation solutions are likely to be needed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"502 ","pages":"Article 111041"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Field-scale simulation of runoff and water quality in a paddy field: A study of novel RWQSPad model","authors":"Dawei Lin ,&nbsp;Baolin Su ,&nbsp;Wuzhi Yang ,&nbsp;Ningbo Huang ,&nbsp;Kun Zhao ,&nbsp;Yutang Guan ,&nbsp;Ya Liao ,&nbsp;Jingwen Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A Runoff &amp; Water Quality Simulation model for Paddy fields (RWQSPad) based on water balance and nutrients mass balance was developed to simulate paddy hydrological process, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorous) and chlorophyll-a dynamics at field scale. A paddy field was separated into flooded water layer and soil layer, and a plant growth component of EPIC model was applied to simulate crop interception and evapotranspiration. Parameters named minimum suitable water depth (<em>H_d</em>), maximum suitable water depth (<em>H_u</em>) and minimum ridge height (<em>H_t</em>) were introduced to control the processes of irrigation and runoff. Besides that, all the important nutrients transformation processes that take place in flooded rice field were considered by the first-order reaction kinetics equations. The effect of limitations of light, temperature and nutrients to floating-algae dynamics indicated by chlorophyll-a was taken into account. The application of RWQSPad model in a paddy field plot of the Shangzhuan Town, Beijing, China showed that the model can simulate well the hydrological, nitrogen and phosphorous transformation processes and chlorophyll-a dynamics in surface water in the paddy field. Simultaneously, it also demonstrated a good level of runoff simulation which can fit quite well with the observed data and a great potential in simulating rainfall-runoff-pollution. RWQSPad model gives more reasonable results of the runoff amount and nutrient losses, and shows a better performance on the modelling of drainage processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"502 ","pages":"Article 111042"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling water quality and cyanobacteria blooms in Lake Okeechobee: I. Model descriptions, seasonal cycles, and spatial patterns","authors":"Mingshun Jiang ,&nbsp;Ashely Brereton ,&nbsp;Jordon Beckler ,&nbsp;Timothy Moore ,&nbsp;Rachel A. Brewton ,&nbsp;Chuanmin Hu ,&nbsp;Brian E. Lapointe ,&nbsp;Malcolm N. McFarland","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lake Okeechobee is a shallow subtropical lake that is critically important for south Florida agriculture and the Everglades. In summer, the lake typically experiences strong blooms of cyanobacteria including toxin producing <em>Microcystis aeruginosa</em>. To understand the dynamics of these blooms and water quality in the lake, a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) has been developed. The biogeochemical model was constructed to simulate major biogeochemical processes including nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles, phytoplankton growth, zooplankton grazing, and microbial loop, among others. A three-year (2018–2020) simulation was carried out and calibrated with available <em>in situ</em> and remote sensing data for key physical and biogeochemical parameters. Although model and data generally agree in spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, significant discrepancies exist including exact timings of the blooms and dissolved inorganic and organic P concentrations. Model results indicate that Lake Okeechobee typically exhibits a two-layer circulation in summer with surface and bottom currents generally moving in the opposite directions. This feature couples with diurnal cycles of atmospheric forcing (winds and heating/cooling) and diel vertical migration (DVM) of <em>Microcystis</em> to strongly affect not only the spatial patterns of cyanobacteria blooms but also the bloom intensity in summertime. Horizontally, both model results and remote sensing images indicate that cyanobacteria distributions are concentrated in the central and northern lake during summer and in western lake in spring and fall, in responses to the prevailing winds. Consistent with previous laboratory and observational studies, model results also suggest that, among the two main nutrients N and P, nitrogen is likely the primary limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth along the northwestern coast where dissolved inorganic nitrogen is typically depleted in summer. In the central and southeastern lake, nutrient concentrations are relatively higher, and light and winds are likely the main factors limiting phytoplankton blooms. In addition, surface winds and water temperature are important in regulating the seasonality of phytoplankton blooms. The model, however, is limited by the uncertainties of key biogeochemical parameters including the specifics of <em>Microcystis</em> vertical migration, and sediment-water interactions including nutrient fluxes and sediment transport. Nevertheless, with further development, this model can be useful for forecasting water quality and phytoplankton blooms and to assist in water management decision-making in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"502 ","pages":"Article 111018"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143378264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Utilizing spatial modeling to evaluate habitat suitability and develop conservation corridors for effective conservation planning of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Jeli, Kelantan, Malaysia","authors":"Nur Hairunnisa Rafaai ,&nbsp;Hazizi Husain ,&nbsp;Shukor Md Nor ,&nbsp;Amal Najihah Muhamad Nor ,&nbsp;Aainaa Amir ,&nbsp;Muhamad Azahar Abas ,&nbsp;Nor Hizami Hassin ,&nbsp;Ashiah Rosdi ,&nbsp;Siti Balqis Jaafar ,&nbsp;Farah Nabila Ahmad ,&nbsp;Fazrin Munirah Atan ,&nbsp;Ahmad Shahdan Kasim ,&nbsp;Hairulazim Mahmud ,&nbsp;Salman Saaban ,&nbsp;Kamarul Hambali","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forest loss and habitat fragmentation threaten Asian elephants by isolating populations, hindering species movement, disconnecting habitat patches, and changing ecological processes. Constructing ecological corridors are considered critical initiatives to conserve Asian elephants by restoring and strengthening connectivity. Although most studies effectively assess habitat suitability for elephants and identify potential conflict areas with humans, they often fall short of utilizing this information to create effective ecological corridors. Therefore, this study aims to determine the potential ecological corridors by considering the conflict area and suitability of Asian elephant habitat in Jeli, Kelantan. In this study, habitat suitability was developed using MaxEnt software, considering seven variables, where distance from the river was identified as the highest contribution to the habitat suitability of Asian elephants, followed by elevation and LULC. The habitat suitability map was then converted to a landscape resistance map, which was used to predict the potential ecological corridors for Asian elephants. The circuit theory and least-cost path were integrated using the Circuitscape software to identify a suitable corridor for Asian elephants. The habitat suitability analysis shows that only 15 % of the study area is suitable for elephants. 50 % of the area is unsuitable because it is far from water sources. The corridor analysis shows that ten suitable corridors were constructed in this study. The longest corridor is 1705 m, while the shortest is 230 m. Thus, suitable habitat conditions, well-connected and well-designed corridors are crucial for elephant populations to survive in a fragmented landscape, mitigate human conflicts, and encourage sustainable and harmonious coexistence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"502 ","pages":"Article 111043"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143378265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to \"Comparing the performance of global, geographically weighted and ecologically weighted species distribution models for Scottish wildcats using GLM and Random Forest predictive modeling\"","authors":"S.A. Cushman ,&nbsp;K. Kilshaw ,&nbsp;R.D. Campbell ,&nbsp;Z. Kaszta ,&nbsp;M. Gaywood ,&nbsp;D.W. Macdonald","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111040","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"502 ","pages":"Article 111040"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143369844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing ecological sustainability in ion-adsorption rare earth mining areas: A multi-scale model for assessing spatiotemporal dynamics and ecological resilience","authors":"Yaoyao Jiang ,&nbsp;Hengkai Li ,&nbsp;Zhiwei Zhang ,&nbsp;Guogang Ren ,&nbsp;Jianying Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the increasing global demand for Rare Earth (RE) resources, ionic RE deposits, characterized by a high concentration of medium and heavy RE elements, have become critical to strategic resource planning. These deposits are primarily located in southern China's hilly and mountainous regions, where RE elements are adsorbed onto clay minerals in an ionic state. The deposits are small, scattered, and predominantly mined through solution leaching, a method effective for resource extraction but with severe ecological repercussions, including soil, vegetation, and water degradation. Currently, quantitative assessment methods for evaluating the Ecological carrying capacity (ECC) of ionic RE mining areas on a regional scale remain limited. To address this gap, this paper presents an ECC evaluation model based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework, tailored specifically for ionic RE mining areas. Twenty-two ecological indicators were selected to capture the unique environmental conditions of these sites, forming a comprehensive ECC evaluation model applicable to ion-adsorbed RE mining areas. Using Lingbei in Dingnan County, China, as a case study, we conducted a long-term dynamic analysis of the mining area's ECC and employed geospatial analysis to identify the key drivers and their multidimensional interactions across various periods, examining the evolution patterns of critical ecological factors. The results reveal that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the ECC of the Lingbei RE mining area exhibited a general trend of initial decline followed by improvement. From 2000 to 2010, ECC consistently declined, with moderate ECC zones shifting to poor categories. Since 2010, however, ECC has gradually improved, with the poor ECC zones recovering to moderate levels by 2020. (2) Throughout 2000–2020, vegetation cover (S1) was consistently the primary driver of ECC in the mining area. Early-stage ecological degradation was driven primarily by vegetation loss and desertification (P3), with additional impacts from climatic factors such as surface heat (D3) and precipitation (D5). After 2010, vegetation recovery contributed to improved ECC, while pressures from desertification and climate stress eased. Contributions from biodiversity (S4) and soil organic matter (S3) also increased, and interactions between any two factors had a significantly greater effect on ECC than single factors alone. This study highlights the critical role of vegetation recovery and environmental interactions in improving the ECC of ionic RE mining areas. The findings provide insights into key drivers and pressures, offering guidance for mitigating environmental degradation and promoting sustainable development in RE mining regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"502 ","pages":"Article 111038"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143349275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Vegetation pattern formation in Daisyworld model with greenhouse effect","authors":"Maya Kageyama","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A vegetation pattern is closely related to its environmental conditions. The quantitative and qualitative effects of environmental changes due to increased greenhouse gases on vegetation patterns should thus be urgently investigated. Although the simple Daisyworld model, a conceptual Earth system model introduced in the 1980s, limits life on the plant to two species of daisies, it is expected to provide new insights into the relationship between vegetation patterns and environmental conditions. This study investigates the effects of greenhouse gases on plants and their environment in a two-dimensional Daisyworld model that takes the greenhouse effect into account. Specifically, the effect of varying the emissivity of the atmosphere for longwave radiation on the temperature and distribution of daisies on Daisyworld is examined. A numerical simulation of the two-dimensional Daisyworld model shows that the two species of daisies are unable to adapt to the climate change caused by an intensifying greenhouse effect and thus become extinct.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"502 ","pages":"Article 111034"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143369842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage and its driving factors in the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin, China","authors":"Jiakai Ma,&nbsp;Zixuan Hao,&nbsp;Yaqi Shen,&nbsp;Zhilei Zhen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Yellow River Basin (YRB) holds plays a crucial role in China's socioeconomic development and ecological security, and it is also a key strategic area for achieving carbon reduction targets. This study focused on the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin (SYRB), utilizing the PLUS-InVEST model to assess changes in carbon storage (CS) from 2000 to 2020. Then, the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) models were employed to explore the impact of various driving factors on carbon storage changes. Finally, the study predicted land use/cover (LULC) changes by 2040 and the distribution characteristics of CS under different development scenarios. The results showed that the CS in the SYRB has been diminishing from 2000 to 2020, with a reduction of 4.08 × 10⁶ t. The LULC changes had the most critical effect on CS, and then the elevation, annual precipitation, and net primary productivity also played an important impact on CS. Moreover, the interaction of LULC and other driving factors presented the strongest impact on CS. By 2040, the CS in the SYRB under the natural development, ecological protection, urban development, and comprehensive development scenarios were 16.68 × 10⁸, 16.74 × 10⁸, 16.63 × 10⁸, and 16.69 × 10⁸ t, respectively. Local Moran's I indicated that the High-High values of CS accumulation were predominantly found in the mountainous areas in 2040, while the Low-Low values of CS accumulation were mainly focused in the urban areas in the middle of the SYRB. This study emphasized the importance of human activities and the natural environment in achieving carbon neutrality, and that we should take ecological conservation measures to increase the level of regional CS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"502 ","pages":"Article 111039"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143369843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}