Ecological Modelling最新文献_第2页

Role of vertical transport in the formation and maintenance of metalimnetic oxygen minimum in a stratified reservoir 垂直输运在层状储层中成矿氧最小值的形成和维持中的作用

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111509

Bing Ma, Fei Dong, Wenqi Peng, Xiaobo Liu, Aiping Huang

Metalimnetic oxygen minima (MOM) are observed in many lakes and reservoirs, Typically, processes driving MOM formation include vertical transport and in-situ oxygen consumption, but the relative contributions of these two processes remain debated. This study investigates Panjiakou Reservoir, a deep-water drinking water source in northern China, combining high-frequency diel vertical monitoring (half-hour resolution) with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-water quality model (EFDC) to quantitatively assess the role of vertical transport in MOM formation. Key findings: (1) The vertical turbulent diffusion coefficient within the metalimnion was significantly lower (by one order of magnitude) than in the epilimnion and hypolimnion. Its minimum value exhibited a strong positive correlation (R² = 0.8) with the square of the buoyancy frequency (N²), confirming that thermal stratification stability inhibits vertical mixing and is a key factor in MOM formation.(2) The vertical flux divergence of dissolved oxygen (DO) in water layers above and below the MOM was negative, indicating that vertical transport acted as a source term in the oxygen balance, increasing DO concentration via vertical transport.(3) The contribution of vertical transport to MOM formation varied with depth. In the layer above the MOM, DO flux divergence (FD) was comparable in magnitude to the oxygen consumption rate (P_net), indicating that both vertical transport and consumption processes governed DO changes. At and below the MOM depth, FDwas relatively small (approaching zero), and oxygen consumption dominated. This study provides new insights into MOM formation mechanisms in stratified reservoirs and has practical implications for water quality management in drinking water sources.

在许多湖泊和储层中都观察到金属氧极小值（MOM），通常，驱动MOM形成的过程包括垂直输送和原位氧消耗，但这两种过程的相对贡献仍然存在争议。本研究以中国北方深水饮用水源潘家口水库为研究对象，采用高频垂直监测（半小时分辨率）和三维水动力-水质模型（EFDC）相结合的方法，定量评价垂直运移在MOM形成中的作用。主要发现：(1)金属离子内的垂直湍流扩散系数显著低于金属离子和低金属离子（约1个数量级）。其最小值与浮力频率（N2）的平方呈强正相关（R2 = 0.8），说明热分层稳定性抑制了垂直混合，是MOM形成的关键因素。(2) MOM上下水层溶解氧（DO）垂直通量散度均为负值，表明垂直输送在氧平衡中起着源项的作用，通过垂直输送增加了DO浓度。(3)垂直输运对MOM形成的贡献随深度不同而不同。在MOM之上的一层，DO通量散度（FD）的大小与氧消耗率（Pnet）相当，表明垂直运输和消耗过程都控制着DO的变化。在MOM深度及以下，fd相对较小（接近于零），以氧气消耗为主。该研究为层状水库中MOM的形成机制提供了新的认识，并对饮用水水源地的水质管理具有实际意义。

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引用次数: 0

Coupling and interaction of ecological civilization subsystems in the Pearl River Delta: A "production-living-ecological" systems perspective 珠三角生态文明子系统的耦合与互动：“生产-生活-生态”系统视角

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111512

Qing Guo, Xiangyang Teng

As a national strategic core region, the Pearl River Delta Region (PRD) faces inherent tensions between ecological preservation and high-quality development amid rapid urbanization and industrial transformation. This study establishes a three-dimensional synergistic framework encompassing Production- Living-Ecological systems, employing an integrated methodology combining entropy-weighted TOPSIS model, coupling coordination degree (CCDM) model, kernel density estimation (KDE) model, and panel vector autoregression (PVAR) method. Through systematic investigation of spatiotemporal patterns and multidimensional interaction mechanisms in ecological civilization system coordination from 2011 to 2020, the research reveals: (1) Production System (PS), Living System (LS), and ecological system (ES) in the Pearl River Delta demonstrated steady growth, with LS lagging behind in composite index; (2) Regional CCD exhibited long-term inefficiency, marked divergence among core cities, and coordination collapse under multiple shocks; (3) The systems lacked robust synergistic interactions, with notably weak contributions from LS and ES, overall characterized by “production-dominance, ecological-bearing and life-feedback.” The findings inform targeted policy recommendations for sustainable regional development.

作为国家战略核心区的珠江三角洲地区，在快速城市化和产业转型的背景下，面临着生态保护与高质量发展的内在矛盾。本研究采用熵权TOPSIS模型、耦合协调度（CCDM）模型、核密度估计（KDE）模型和面板向量自回归（PVAR）方法相结合的综合方法，构建了一个包含生产-生活-生态系统的三维协同框架。通过对2011 - 2020年珠三角生态文明系统协调时空格局和多维互动机制的系统调查，研究发现：(1)珠三角生产系统（PS）、生活系统（LS）和生态系统（ES）呈现稳定增长态势，生态系统综合指数滞后；②区域CCD长期效率低下，核心城市间分化明显，多重冲击下协调性崩溃；(3)生态系统缺乏强大的协同作用，LS和ES的贡献明显较弱，总体表现为“生产主导、生态承载和生命反馈”。调查结果为可持续区域发展提供了有针对性的政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

Modeling impacts of N sources on N2O emissions in long-term crop rotation system in Brazil’s Cerrado using DNDCv.CAN 利用DNDCv模拟巴西塞拉多长期轮作系统N源对N2O排放的影响可以

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111513

Johnny Rodrigues Soares , Antônio Carlos Reis de Freitas , Bruno José Rodrigues Alves , Ward Smith , Brian Grant , Craig F. Drury , Claudia Pozzi Jantalia , Maria da Conceição Santana Carvalho , Beata Emoke Madari

Predicting N₂O emissions can help identify crop production practices and environmental conditions for mitigation. The objectives were to calibrate and validate the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDCv.CAN) model to simulate N₂O emission in crop rotation (CR) systems in Brazil’s Cerrado biome, using different N fertilizer sources. Field data were obtained from a CR experiment with maize and common beans cultivated under no-till for 10 years. Treatments were: Zero-N, calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN), urea (UR), and ammonium sulfate (AS), with 5 replicates. Measured data including N₂O fluxes, NH₃ volatilization, soil NH₄⁺ and NO₃^-, water-filled pore space (WFPS), and grain yields were used to calibrate and validate the DNDCv.CAN. The model acceptably captured the daily N₂O emissions associated with different N sources, although episodic peaks were over or under-predicted. Correlation coefficient was 0.62 during calibration, with a mean absolute error of 17 g N₂O-N ha^-1 day^-1, close to average measured (18 g ha^-1 d^-1), and simulated (17 g ha^-1 day^-1) emissions. Accumulated measured N₂O-N emissions were 1.19, 4.38, 3.17, and 2.56 kg N₂O-N ha^-1 for Zero-N, CAN, UR, and AS, respectively, whereas the simulated were 1.13, 3.44, 2.24, and 3.32 kg N₂O-N ha^-1. The NH₃, NH₄⁺, NO₃^-, WFPS, and yields were also fairly simulated. Soil hydrologic parameters were adjusted in the model using a built in pedotransfer function to improve the simulations, which should be further investigated. The DNDCv.CAN effectively simulated cumulative N₂O emissions from different N sources applied to CR under tropical conditions, making it valuable for evaluating potential emissions and mitigation strategies.

预测一氧化二氮排放量可以帮助确定作物生产做法和减缓的环境条件。目的是校准和验证反硝化分解（DNDCv.CAN）模型，以模拟巴西塞拉多生物群系作物轮作（CR）系统中使用不同氮肥源的N2O排放。通过玉米和普通豆免耕栽培10年的CR试验获得田间数据。处理为：0 - n、硝酸铵钙（CAN）、尿素（UR）和硫酸铵（AS），每组5个重复。利用N2O通量、NH3挥发、土壤NH4+和NO3-、充水孔隙空间（WFPS）和粮食产量等实测数据对DNDCv.CAN进行了标定和验证。该模型可接受地捕获与不同氮源相关的每日N2O排放量，尽管对偶发性峰值的预测过高或过低。校正期间相关系数为0.62，平均绝对误差为17 g N2O-N ha-1 day-1，接近平均测量排放量（18 g ha-1 d-1）和模拟排放量（17 g ha-1 day-1）。0 - n、CAN、UR和AS的N2O-N累积排放量分别为1.19、4.38、3.17和2.56 kg N2O-N ha-1，而模拟的N2O-N累积排放量分别为1.13、3.44、2.24和3.32 kg N2O-N ha-1。NH3、NH4+、NO3-、WFPS和产率也进行了较好的模拟。利用土壤传递函数对模型中的土壤水文参数进行了调整，以改善模拟效果，有待进一步研究。DNDCv。CAN有效地模拟了热带条件下不同氮源对CR的累积N2O排放，使其对评估潜在排放和减缓战略具有价值。

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引用次数: 0

Emergy quantification of economic-social-ecological losses under water supply-demand dual regulation during mega-droughts 特大干旱供需双调节下经济社会生态损失的能量量化

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111508

Xi Guo, Weijing Wang, Cuimei Lv, Chentao He, Qianqian Cao

Scientifically quantifying the losses caused by supply-demand dual regulation measures under extreme drought conditions constitutes the fundamental basis for effectively addressing urban mega-droughts and mitigating their disaster impacts. To address the quantification of the comprehensive losses in regional ecological-economic systems resulting from bidirectional water supply-demand regulation under extreme drought conditions, this study introduces emergy theory to construct a loss quantification framework based on this approach. Specifically, on the supply side, it primarily considers the costs of tapping potential water sources and the resulting ecological and environmental damage, while on the demand side, it focuses mainly on the socio-economic losses due to water shortages and the negative ecological and environmental impacts caused by water use reduction. The framework is applied and validated using the case of the 2011 extreme drought in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province. The results indicate that in Chuxiong Prefecture, the supply-side regulation cost was 4.76 × 10²⁰sej, equivalent to 1.356 billion EmCNY based on the emergy/money ratio, while the demand-side water restriction loss was 3.58 × 10²⁰ sej, equivalent to 1.019 billion EmCNY. The total economic-social-ecological loss from dual supply-demand regulation reached 2.375 billion EmCNY. In conclusion, the quantitative assessment of economic-social-ecological losses under dual-directional supply-demand regulation provides scientific support for extreme drought risk evaluation, government emergency response planning, and post-disaster recovery/reconstruction decision-making, thereby enhancing disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.

科学量化极端干旱条件下供需双调控措施造成的损失，是有效应对城市特大干旱和减轻特大干旱灾害影响的根本依据。为解决极端干旱条件下供需双向调节对区域生态经济系统综合损失的量化问题，本研究在此基础上引入能值理论构建了损失量化框架。具体而言，在供给侧，主要考虑潜在水源的开采成本和由此造成的生态环境破坏；在需求侧，主要关注水资源短缺造成的社会经济损失和减少用水对生态环境的负面影响。以2011年云南省楚雄州极端干旱为例，对该框架进行了应用和验证。结果表明：楚雄州供能侧调控成本为4.76 × 1020sej，按能钱比计算，折合人民币13.56亿元；需求侧限水损失为3.58 × 1020sej，折合人民币10.19亿元。供需双调控造成的经济社会生态损失达23.75亿元。综上所述，供需双向调节下的经济-社会-生态损失定量评估可为极端干旱风险评估、政府应急规划和灾后恢复重建决策提供科学依据，从而提高防灾减灾能力。

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引用次数: 0

Generalized EPICS (gEPICS): Handling species extinctions in predicting microbial community structures using effective pairwise interactions 广义EPICS (gEPICS)：利用有效的两两相互作用处理物种灭绝预测微生物群落结构

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111505

Aadhil Basith A , Gayathri Sambamoorthy , Kartikeya Aditya , Aamir Faisal Ansari , Bharat Cheviti , Yugandhar B.S. Reddy , Janhavi Raut , Narendra M. Dixit

Predicting the structures of multispecies microbial communities requires knowledge of the underlying interspecies interactions. EPICS, an efficient and scalable method, employs steady-state data from monocultures and leave-one-out subcommunities together with mathematical modelling to estimate effective pairwise interactions between species and accurately predicts community structures. A limitation, however, is its inability to handle scenarios wherein some species become extinct in leave-one-out subcommunities, restricting its scope. Here, we develop a generalization of EPICS (gEPICS) that overcomes this limitation. We reformulate the mathematical model in EPICS, built using the generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) equations, by accounting for missing species. This yields an under-determined system of equations in the unknown effective pairwise interaction coefficients. We estimate the coefficients using the Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse. With these coefficients, we apply the model to predict community structures. We test gEPICS on a large number of in silico communities and find that it robustly predicts community structures. Its accuracy decreases with the number of missing species but increases with the total number of species involved, rendering it particularly suited to large communities. We apply it to two experimental systems from the literature, an 8-species synthetic soil microbial community and a 12-species synthetic gut microbial community. gEPICS accurately captures the structures of both the communities, demonstrating its applicability to diverse settings. gEPICS would serve as a useful tool to estimate interspecies interactions and engineer multispecies microbial communities.

预测多物种微生物群落的结构需要了解潜在的物种间相互作用。EPICS是一种高效且可扩展的方法，它利用来自单一栽培和留一亚群落的稳态数据，结合数学模型来估计物种之间有效的成对相互作用，并准确预测群落结构。然而，它的一个限制是，它无法处理一些物种在“留一个”亚群落中灭绝的情况，这限制了它的范围。在这里，我们开发了EPICS的一般化（gEPICS），克服了这一限制。我们利用广义Lotka-Volterra （GLV）方程重新制定了EPICS中的数学模型，考虑了缺失物种。这就产生了一个未知有效两两相互作用系数的待定方程组。我们使用Moore-Penrose伪逆估计系数。利用这些系数，我们应用该模型来预测群落结构。我们在大量的计算机社区中测试了gEPICS，发现它可以稳健地预测社区结构。它的准确性随着缺失物种的数量而降低，但随着所涉及物种的总数而增加，这使得它特别适合于大型群落。我们将其应用于文献中的两个实验系统，一个8种合成土壤微生物群落和一个12种合成肠道微生物群落。gEPICS准确地捕获了这两个群落的结构，证明了它对不同环境的适用性。gEPICS将成为估计物种间相互作用和设计多物种微生物群落的有用工具。

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引用次数: 0

Theoretical insights from functional-response modeling of green sea turtle aggregation on seagrass 绿海龟在海草上聚集的功能反应模型的理论见解

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111493

Naoto K. Inoue

Long-term conservation efforts have contributed to the recovery of green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) populations in many regions, highlighting the need to reassess conservation plans within a broader ecosystem context. In some areas, localized high turtle densities can impose strong grazing pressure on seagrass meadows. Two measures have been suggested to mitigate such impacts: (i) enhancing seagrass growth through nutrient or symbiotic algae supplementation, and (ii) managing turtle populations by predator protection or localized commercial use. However, model-based studies focusing on seagrass-turtle interactions remain limited, and the resulting effects of the measures on system dynamics are not well understood. To address the gap, the author developed a simple seagrass-turtle model that incorporates turtle aggregation in seagrass patches. By assuming that turtles move to the most seagrass-rich patch and applying simple distributions for seagrass shoot numbers per patch and the number of accessible patches, turtle aggregation was modeled as a simple functional response. The constructed model revealed that turtle aggregation causes positive density dependence in seagrass and negative density dependence in turtles, leading to destabilization through increased seagrass growth and stabilization through turtle population management. Extending the model to incorporate additional ecological factors, such as alternative turtle food resources or spatially heterogeneous environments, alongside empirical assessments of turtle mortality and its causes, could inform future management strategies.

在许多地区，长期的保护工作促进了绿海龟（Chelonia mydas）种群的恢复，这凸显了在更广泛的生态系统背景下重新评估保护计划的必要性。在一些地区，局部的高海龟密度会给海草草甸带来强大的放牧压力。建议采取两项措施来减轻这种影响：(i)通过补充营养物或共生藻类来促进海草的生长；（ii）通过捕食者保护或局部商业利用来管理海龟种群。然而，针对海草-海龟相互作用的基于模型的研究仍然有限，并且这些措施对系统动力学的最终影响尚未得到很好的理解。为了解决这一差距，作者开发了一个简单的海草-海龟模型，该模型将海龟聚集在海草斑块中。假设海龟迁移到海草最丰富的斑块，并应用每个斑块的海草芽数和可达斑块的数量的简单分布，将海龟聚集建模为简单的功能响应。建立的模型表明，海龟聚集导致海草的正密度依赖和海龟的负密度依赖，通过增加海草生长导致不稳定，通过海龟种群管理导致稳定。扩展该模型以纳入其他生态因素，如替代性海龟食物资源或空间异质性环境，以及对海龟死亡率及其原因的经验评估，可以为未来的管理策略提供信息。

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引用次数: 0

Balancing fishing effort along the tropical tuna abundance-size spectrum 平衡沿热带金枪鱼丰度大小谱捕鱼努力

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111495

Alex Tidd, Mariana Travassos Tolotti, Patrice Guillotreau, Nicolas Barrier, Laurent Dagorn

The ecosystem approach to fisheries is widely recognised as a key management goal, yet its definition and implementation remain debated. Most fisheries management relies on single-species strategies with technical measures to reduce bycatch. However, selective removals disrupt species composition, affecting ecosystem dynamics and resilience. We present a proof-of-concept model based on balanced harvesting that allocates fishing pressure proportionally across three tuna stocks—yellowfin (Thunnus albacares), skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus)—in the Indian Ocean according to their size-biomass ratios. The model optimises fishing effort by gear using a predefined objective function based on length-based population dynamics, ensuring a balanced harvest while maintaining each tuna species' biomass within its maximum sustainable yield (B_MSY) limit. By assigning fishing mortality (F-multiplier) to each fleet, the model aims to maintain, within the bounds of B_MSY for each stock, the ecosystem structure (based on size-abundance relationships) over a 20-year simulation. Results indicate significant reductions in fishing mortality across gears relative to 2020 levels. While some gears, such as purse seine free-school, show increased catches and revenues (146%), others, like purse seine log-school, experience declines (-22%). Overall, fishing at B_MSY improves total revenues and catches by 51% and 34%, respectively, compared to 2020. This work demonstrates that it is possible to maintain each tuna stock within B_MSY bounds by managing fishing fleets while preserving ecosystem structure, a significant goal of the ecosystem approach to fisheries.

渔业生态系统方法被广泛认为是一个关键的管理目标，但其定义和实施仍存在争议。大多数渔业管理依靠单一物种战略和技术措施来减少副渔获物。然而，选择性清除破坏了物种组成，影响了生态系统的动态和恢复力。我们提出了一个基于平衡捕捞的概念验证模型，该模型将捕捞压力按比例分配给印度洋三种金枪鱼种群——黄鳍金枪鱼（Thunnus albacares）、鲣鱼（Katsuwonus pelamis）和大眼金枪鱼（Thunnus obesus）——根据它们的大小与生物量比。该模型使用基于长度的种群动态的预定义目标函数来优化渔具的捕捞努力，确保平衡的收获，同时将每个金枪鱼物种的生物量保持在其最大可持续产量（BMSY）限制内。通过为每个船队分配捕捞死亡率（f乘数），该模型旨在在每个种群的BMSY范围内维持20年模拟的生态系统结构（基于大小-丰度关系）。结果表明，与2020年的水平相比，各年份的捕鱼死亡率显著降低。虽然一些项目（如围网自由学校）的渔获量和收入有所增加（146%），但其他项目（如围网伐木学校）的渔获量和收入却有所下降（-22%）。总体而言，与2020年相比，BMSY的捕捞总收入和渔获量分别提高了51%和34%。这项工作表明，在保护生态系统结构（渔业生态系统方法的一个重要目标）的同时，通过管理捕鱼船队，有可能将每个金枪鱼种群维持在BMSY范围内。

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引用次数: 0

Forest wildfire emissions using the Canadian Fire Effects Model within the Generic Carbon Budget Model 在通用碳预算模型中使用加拿大火灾效应模型的森林野火排放

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111490

C. Smyth , M. Fellows , A. Cantin

This study integrated the Canadian Fire Effects Model (CanFIRE) within the Generic Carbon Budget Model (GCBM) to improve greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from future wildfires. The new framework estimates wildland fire combustion emissions and mortality using species-specific algorithms for 11 tree species. We tested this framework on a national forest carbon simulation and compared the results to a previous study that used general combustion and mortality impacts for different regions. Our findings indicate that the new framework results in higher emissions estimates, mainly from the soil organic horizon. This framework is available as a GCBM module, offering a tool for wildfire and carbon studies in dynamic landscapes and analyzing wildfire management strategies and their potential to reduce GHG emissions

本研究将加拿大火灾效应模型（CanFIRE）整合到通用碳预算模型（GCBM）中，以改善未来野火的温室气体（GHG）排放。新的框架使用特定物种算法估算了11种树种的野火燃烧排放量和死亡率。我们在一个国家森林碳模拟中测试了这个框架，并将结果与之前的一项研究进行了比较，该研究使用了不同地区的一般燃烧和死亡率影响。我们的研究结果表明，新的框架导致更高的排放估计值，主要来自土壤有机水平。该框架作为GCBM模块提供，为动态景观中的野火和碳研究提供工具，并分析野火管理战略及其减少温室气体排放的潜力

引用次数: 0

Interpretability of graph neural networks to assess effects of global change drivers on ecological networks 图神经网络在评估全球变化驱动因素对生态网络影响中的可解释性

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111472

Emre Anakok , Pierre Barbillon , Colin Fontaine , Elisa Thebault

Pollinators play a crucial role for plant reproduction, either in natural ecosystem or in human-modified landscape. Global change drivers, including climate change or land use modifications, can alter the plant–pollinator interactions. To assess the potential influence of global change drivers on pollination, large-scale interactions, climate and land use data are required. While recent machine learning methods, such as graph neural networks (GNNs), allow the analysis of such datasets, interpreting their results can be challenging. We explore existing methods for interpreting GNNs in order to highlight the effects of various environmental covariates on pollination network connectivity. An extensive simulation study is performed to confirm whether these methods can detect the interactive effect between a covariate and a genus of plant on connectivity, and whether the application of debiasing techniques influences the estimation of these effects. An application on the Spipoll dataset, with and without accounting for sampling effects, highlights the potential impact of land use on network connectivity and shows that accounting for sampling effects partially alters the estimation of these effects.

无论是在自然生态系统中还是在人为改造的景观中，传粉媒介对植物的繁殖都起着至关重要的作用。全球变化驱动因素，包括气候变化或土地利用改变，可以改变植物与传粉者的相互作用。为了评估全球变化驱动因素对授粉的潜在影响，需要大规模相互作用、气候和土地利用数据。虽然最近的机器学习方法，如图神经网络（gnn），允许对这些数据集进行分析，但解释其结果可能具有挑战性。我们探索了现有的解释gnn的方法，以突出各种环境协变量对授粉网络连通性的影响。进行了广泛的模拟研究，以确认这些方法是否可以检测协变量和植物属之间对连通性的相互作用效应，以及去除偏倚技术的应用是否会影响这些效应的估计。在Spipoll数据集上的一个应用程序，无论是否考虑采样效应，都突出了土地利用对网络连通性的潜在影响，并表明考虑采样效应部分地改变了这些影响的估计。

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引用次数: 0

A mechanistic approach to understanding birth timing, calf growth, and residency of southern right whale mother–calf pairs on their calving ground 一个机械的方法来了解出生时间，幼崽的成长，和居住的南露脊鲸母子对在他们的产犊地

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111500

Fredrik Christiansen , Shane Dickeson , Kate R. Sprogis

Understanding residency patterns provides valuable insights into animal life history and is fundamental for establishing protected areas. Southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) are migratory capital breeders, with females accumulating energy reserves on summer feeding grounds to sustain late gestation and early lactation while fasting on winter calving grounds. On these oligotrophic calving grounds, mothers must grow their calves to a size suitable for migration without depleting their finite energy stores. To better understand this trade-off, we developed a mechanistic model to estimate the residency duration of mother–calf pairs at Australia’s largest calving aggregation. By linking maternal body size and condition to key reproductive traits, including birth timing, size at birth, calf growth rate, and departure timing, we quantified the effect of maternal phenotype on residency duration. Maternal size and condition positively influenced both calf birth size and growth rate. Absolute calf size was the primary driver of departure, with pairs leaving once the calf reached approximately 8 m in length, which likely improves calf locomotor performance and reduces predation risk. Larger, better-conditioned mothers could grow their calves more rapidly, enabling earlier departure and a shorter residency period. This, in turn, allowed mothers to return to feeding grounds sooner and replenish depleted energy reserves. Our findings highlight how the early lactation phase in SRWs is shaped by the energetic constraints of capital breeding and the demands of migration and underscore the importance of maternal traits in determining residency duration on calving grounds.

了解居住模式为了解动物生活史提供了有价值的见解，也是建立保护区的基础。南露脊鲸（Eubalaena australis）是迁徙的资本繁殖者，雌性在夏季觅食地积累能量储备，以维持晚期妊娠和早期哺乳，而冬季在产犊地禁食。在这些营养不良的产犊地，母亲们必须把幼崽长到适合迁徙的大小，同时又不能耗尽它们有限的能量储备。为了更好地理解这种权衡，我们开发了一个机制模型来估计澳大利亚最大的产仔聚集地的母子对的居住时间。通过将母亲的体型和条件与关键的生殖性状（包括出生时间、出生尺寸、小牛生长速度和离开时间）联系起来，我们量化了母亲表型对居住时间的影响。母鼠体型和条件对犊牛出生尺寸和生长速度均有显著影响。幼崽的绝对体型是它们离开的主要原因，当幼崽长到大约8米时，它们就会离开，这可能会提高幼崽的运动能力，降低被捕食的风险。体型较大、条件较好的母象可以更快地长出幼崽，从而可以更早离开，缩短居住时间。这反过来又使母亲能够更快地返回觅食地，补充耗尽的能量储备。我们的研究结果强调了srw的早期哺乳期是如何受到资本繁殖的能量限制和迁徙需求的影响的，并强调了母亲特征在决定产犊地居住时间方面的重要性。

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