Ecological Modelling最新文献_第2页

A mechanistic approach to understanding birth timing, calf growth, and residency of southern right whale mother–calf pairs on their calving ground 一个机械的方法来了解出生时间，幼崽的成长，和居住的南露脊鲸母子对在他们的产犊地

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111500

Fredrik Christiansen , Shane Dickeson , Kate R. Sprogis

Understanding residency patterns provides valuable insights into animal life history and is fundamental for establishing protected areas. Southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) are migratory capital breeders, with females accumulating energy reserves on summer feeding grounds to sustain late gestation and early lactation while fasting on winter calving grounds. On these oligotrophic calving grounds, mothers must grow their calves to a size suitable for migration without depleting their finite energy stores. To better understand this trade-off, we developed a mechanistic model to estimate the residency duration of mother–calf pairs at Australia’s largest calving aggregation. By linking maternal body size and condition to key reproductive traits, including birth timing, size at birth, calf growth rate, and departure timing, we quantified the effect of maternal phenotype on residency duration. Maternal size and condition positively influenced both calf birth size and growth rate. Absolute calf size was the primary driver of departure, with pairs leaving once the calf reached approximately 8 m in length, which likely improves calf locomotor performance and reduces predation risk. Larger, better-conditioned mothers could grow their calves more rapidly, enabling earlier departure and a shorter residency period. This, in turn, allowed mothers to return to feeding grounds sooner and replenish depleted energy reserves. Our findings highlight how the early lactation phase in SRWs is shaped by the energetic constraints of capital breeding and the demands of migration and underscore the importance of maternal traits in determining residency duration on calving grounds.

了解居住模式为了解动物生活史提供了有价值的见解，也是建立保护区的基础。南露脊鲸（Eubalaena australis）是迁徙的资本繁殖者，雌性在夏季觅食地积累能量储备，以维持晚期妊娠和早期哺乳，而冬季在产犊地禁食。在这些营养不良的产犊地，母亲们必须把幼崽长到适合迁徙的大小，同时又不能耗尽它们有限的能量储备。为了更好地理解这种权衡，我们开发了一个机制模型来估计澳大利亚最大的产仔聚集地的母子对的居住时间。通过将母亲的体型和条件与关键的生殖性状（包括出生时间、出生尺寸、小牛生长速度和离开时间）联系起来，我们量化了母亲表型对居住时间的影响。母鼠体型和条件对犊牛出生尺寸和生长速度均有显著影响。幼崽的绝对体型是它们离开的主要原因，当幼崽长到大约8米时，它们就会离开，这可能会提高幼崽的运动能力，降低被捕食的风险。体型较大、条件较好的母象可以更快地长出幼崽，从而可以更早离开，缩短居住时间。这反过来又使母亲能够更快地返回觅食地，补充耗尽的能量储备。我们的研究结果强调了srw的早期哺乳期是如何受到资本繁殖的能量限制和迁徙需求的影响的，并强调了母亲特征在决定产犊地居住时间方面的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

The syntrophic nature of life’s evolution 生命进化的同质性

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111499

Sebastiaan A.L.M. Kooijman , Starrlight Augustine

Organisms typically need each other, with syntrophy as the dominant form of interaction: exchanging products. This is clear at the population, ecosystem and planet Earth levels, but we argue that syntrophy is also fundamental to individual and cellular physiology. With a very simple predator–prey model we illustrate that even predator–prey interactions are dominated by syntrophic principles if attention is paid to nutritional “details”. Our hope is that, by strengthening the coherence of research over time and space scales, research becomes more effective with the syntrophic principle in its core. For this purpose, we briefly evaluate current evolution research to highlight some points that we see as problematic and propose improvements using the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory.

生物体通常需要彼此，而胞合作用是相互作用的主要形式：交换产物。这在种群、生态系统和地球水平上都是显而易见的，但我们认为，synsynation也是个体和细胞生理学的基础。通过一个非常简单的捕食者-猎物模型，我们说明，如果注意营养“细节”，即使捕食者-猎物相互作用也受共生原则支配。我们的希望是，通过加强研究在时间和空间尺度上的一致性，以合养原则为核心的研究变得更加有效。为此，我们简要地评估了当前的进化研究，强调了我们认为存在问题的一些点，并提出了使用动态能量预算（DEB）理论进行改进的建议。

引用次数: 0

Estimating the yield of Parkia biglobosa fruits from field data and image-based predictive models 利用田间数据和基于图像的预测模型估算大叶枇杷果实的产量

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111497

Franklin X. Dono , Bernard N. Baatuuwie , Anne Mette Lykke , Felix K. Abagale , Peter Borgen Sørensen

Accurate estimates of tropical tree fruit yields are essential for assessing individual tree productivity and landscape-scale applications. This study examines the productivity of Parkia biglobosa pods by integrating tree morphology, vegetation health indices from drone and satellite images, and soil properties into a mathematical model. The model evaluates interactions between these factors and their contribution to yield. Fruits were harvested from 105 mature trees within three study sites in the savanna ecological zones of Ghana and weighed. The crown radius of selected trees was measured in meters from mosaics derived from drone images in QGIS. Satellite images and data on the physical and chemical soil properties were obtained from the Norway International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI) and the Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), respectively. The yield was estimated by an exponential relationship involving the tree crown radius, average blue band reflectance from satellite images, and interaction with the locality. The model explained 75 % of the variation in yield. Excluding interaction terms, the best model estimated yield from tree crown radius, average near infrared reflectance of the crown, and soil pH at 30 – 60 cm depth. It indicated that crown radius, soil pH, Blue and Near-infrared spectral characteristics, along with variations in locality, such as soil and tree management practices, influenced the yield of Parkia biglobosa. Collectively, they explained 67.8 % of the variation in the yield. Policies to control tree stand undergrowth, prevent bushfires, promote less invasive harvesting techniques, and monitor soil nitrogen and pH levels are recommended for localities to enhance tree health and productivity.

准确估计热带树木果实产量对于评估单株树木生产力和景观规模应用至关重要。本研究通过将树木形态、无人机和卫星图像的植被健康指数以及土壤特性整合到一个数学模型中，研究了大叶栎豆荚的生产力。该模型评估了这些因素之间的相互作用及其对产量的贡献。从加纳热带稀树草原生态区的三个研究地点的105棵成熟树木上收获果实并称重。所选树木的树冠半径以米为单位从QGIS中无人机图像的马赛克中测量。关于土壤物理和化学性质的卫星图像和数据分别来自挪威国际气候和森林倡议（NICFI）和土壤参考和信息中心（ISRIC）。产量是通过树冠半径、卫星图像的平均蓝带反射率以及与地点的相互作用的指数关系来估计的。该模型解释了75%的产量变化。排除相互作用项，最佳模型通过树冠半径、树冠平均近红外反射率和30 - 60 cm深度的土壤pH值来估算产量。结果表明，树冠半径、土壤pH值、蓝光谱和近红外光谱特征以及土壤和树木管理方式等地区差异影响了白桦的产量。总的来说，它们解释了67.8%的收益率变化。为提高树木健康和生产力，建议地方采取控制林下生长、防止森林火灾、推广侵入性较低的采伐技术以及监测土壤氮和pH值水平的政策。

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引用次数: 0

The changes in the relative biomass growth rate of plants reveal the different interaction modes under high-stress 植物相对生物量生长率的变化揭示了高胁迫下不同的相互作用模式

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111502

Kangkang Mi , Wenping Cui , Ying Zhao , Tingting Ji , Yuyang Song

The growth of plants is influenced by competition and facilitation with neighboring plants. Most studies have focused on the impact of competition on the growth rate of key plants. It is worth noting that under high-stress conditions, the combined impact of facilitation and competition interactions on the growth rate of plant biomass has not been fully explored. In this study, we utilized the zone-of-influence Model (ZOI) to simulate the growth of saplings and adult trees under different interaction modes. Our research results indicate that the interaction can alleviate or even reverse the decline in the relative biomass growth rate of plants. This depends on the competitive and facilitation modes that the plant has gone through. By adjusting parameters such as population structure, interaction modes, and individual size in ZOI, the actual growth conditions of field plants can be simulated. We found that the actual relative biomass growth rate of Haloxylon ammodendron (C.A. Mey.) changes over time, reflecting the competitive and facilitation modes at different developmental stages, and emphasizing the dynamic nature of interactions during plant growth.

植物的生长受到与邻近植物的竞争和促进的影响。大多数研究都集中在竞争对关键植物生长速度的影响上。值得注意的是，在高胁迫条件下，促进和竞争相互作用对植物生物量生长速率的综合影响尚未得到充分探讨。本研究利用影响区模型（zone-of-influence Model， ZOI）模拟了不同交互模式下幼树和成树的生长情况。我们的研究结果表明，这种相互作用可以缓解甚至逆转植物相对生物量增长率的下降。这取决于工厂所经历的竞争和促进模式。通过调整ZOI中的种群结构、相互作用模式和个体大小等参数，可以模拟田间植物的实际生长状况。研究发现梭梭（Haloxylon ammodendron）的实际相对生物量增长率随时间变化，反映了不同发育阶段的竞争和促进模式，强调了植物生长过程中相互作用的动态性质。

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引用次数: 0

Strategies for calculating confidence limits in forest inventories 计算森林清单置信限的战略

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111501

Bruno Oliveira Lafetá, Rafael Gomes Leão, Ana Clara Gomes de Queirós, Caroline Junqueira Sartori, Natália Risso Fonseca, Ivan da Costa Ilhéu Fontan

Accurate confidence intervals for volume are indispensable for planning and decision-making in sustainable forest management and environmental regulation. This study evaluated, through extensive simulations, the robustness of statistical methods for estimating confidence limits. The database comprised simulated datasets from 64 scenarios combining two vegetation typologies, two sample distributions (Normal and Log-normal), four sample sizes (5–20 units), and four variability levels. Generalization was assessed in 28 additional scenarios using Gamma and Weibull distributions to represent conditions in Ombrophilous Forests. Confidence limits (90% probability) were estimated using four methods: (A) classical t-Student; (B) Percentile Bootstrap; (C) Jackknife-z; and (D) a median-based variant of A. Our results demonstrate the superior robustness of the classical Method A. It consistently delivered coverage probabilities nearest the nominal 90% level across all distributions, including symmetric (Normal), positively skewed (Log-normal, Gamma), and negatively skewed (Weibull) conditions. Even for the smallest sample size (n=5), Method A maintained reliable coverage (85.5–96.0%), while resampling methods showed significant undercoverage (often ≤85%), and the median-based approach introduced substantial bias. We conclude that the classical t-based method provides the most reliable confidence limits for inventories with sampling constraints, proving robust under high variability and non-normal data without computationally intensive techniques. These findings, derived from a controlled simulation, provide a robust methodological framework; their application to field data should consider the specific characteristics of the target population.

准确的体积置信区间对于可持续森林管理和环境法规的规划和决策是必不可少的。本研究通过广泛的模拟，评估了估计置信限的统计方法的稳健性。该数据库包括64种情景的模拟数据集，包括两种植被类型、两种样本分布（正态分布和对数正态分布）、四种样本量（5-20个单位）和四种变异性水平。利用伽玛分布和威布尔分布对28个附加情景进行了概化评估。使用四种方法估计置信限（90%概率）：(A)经典t-Student；(B)百分位Bootstrap；(C) Jackknife-z;(D) a的基于中位数的变体。我们的结果证明了经典方法a的优越鲁棒性。它在所有分布中始终提供最接近名义90%水平的覆盖概率，包括对称（正态）、正偏态（对数正态、伽玛）和负偏态（威布尔）条件。即使对于最小样本量（n=5），方法A也保持可靠的覆盖率（85.5-96.0%），而重新抽样方法显示明显的覆盖率不足（通常≤85%），并且基于中位数的方法引入了很大的偏差。我们得出结论，基于经典的方法为具有抽样约束的库存提供了最可靠的置信限，证明了在高可变性和非正态数据下的鲁棒性，而无需计算密集型技术。这些发现来自一个受控的模拟，提供了一个强大的方法框架；它们在实地数据中的应用应考虑到目标人群的具体特征。

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引用次数: 0

Novel functional dissimilarity measures bridging species- and trait-based community analyses 基于物种和性状的新型功能差异测量方法

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111492

Dénes Schmera , Carlo Ricotta , János Podani

Quantifying dissimilarity between ecological communities is fundamental to functional community ecology. In this study, we develop a conceptual and analytical framework that integrates species-based and trait-based dissimilarity measures. The core of the proposed approach involves two steps: the first computes the products of species abundances and trait values, while the second combines products into aggregated trait abundances (ATAs) for use in both species- and trait-based analyses. Building upon the additive decomposition of the Marczewski-Steinhaus and Bray-Curtis indices into difference and replacement components, we introduce a suite of novel methods that allow for the independent weighting of species abundances and trait values. We first detail the methodology and elucidate its conceptual foundations. Subsequently, we assess its performance using both illustrative toy examples and ecologically realistic simulated datasets. To demonstrate its practical utility, we apply the method to compare macroinvertebrate assemblages from natural and anthropogenically impacted stream sections. Our findings indicate that the proposed framework provides a continuum between traditional species-based and trait-based approaches. Finally, we offer practical guidance for ecologists on selecting the most appropriate dissimilarity measure based on specific research objectives and data characteristics.

生态群落间差异性的量化是功能群落生态学研究的基础。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个概念和分析框架，整合了基于物种和基于性状的差异测量。该方法的核心包括两个步骤：第一步计算物种丰度和性状值的乘积，第二步将乘积组合成聚合性状丰度（ATAs），用于基于物种和基于性状的分析。在Marczewski-Steinhaus指数和Bray-Curtis指数相加分解为差异分量和替代分量的基础上，我们引入了一套允许物种丰度和性状值独立加权的新方法。我们首先详细介绍了方法论并阐明了其概念基础。随后，我们使用说明性玩具示例和生态逼真的模拟数据集评估其性能。为了证明其实际效用，我们应用该方法比较了来自自然和人为影响的河流断面的大型无脊椎动物组合。我们的研究结果表明，提出的框架提供了传统的基于物种和基于性状的方法之间的连续体。最后，我们为生态学家根据具体的研究目标和数据特征选择最合适的差异度量提供了实践指导。

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引用次数: 0

Bridging gaps in agro-ecosystem integration: a multi-level modelling study in semi-arid Burkina Faso 弥合农业生态系统整合的差距：半干旱布基纳法索的多层次模型研究

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111478

Gildas G.C. Assogba , David Berre , Myriam Adam , Etienne Delay , Erika Speelman , Katrien Descheemaeker

Mixed crop–livestock systems are central to livelihoods in semi-arid West Africa, yet they face persistent challenges related to low input efficiency, nutrient depletion, and food insecurity. These systems are characterized by complex social and biophysical interactions that produce nonlinear outcomes, complicating sustainable management.

To unravel this complexity, we developed TENGA—an agent-based model (ABM) simulating the dynamics of 700 heterogeneous farms in semi-arid Burkina Faso. The model captured spatial and temporal interactions among crop and livestock management, nutrient flows, and farmers’ interactions. A Morris sensitivity analysis was used to identify key parameters influencing system behavior, and scenario analysis explored interventions to improve crop-livestock integration including legume intensification (increasing the functional contribution of nitrogen-fixing legumes), fertilizer subsidies, and intensified direct exchange of manure and crop residues.

Nitrogen uptake efficiency, livestock feed parameters, manure management, and social interactions emerged as critical drivers of system outcomes. Sensitivity analysis revealed nonlinear feedbacks, particularly in the propagation of farm-level effects (e.g. income) to village-level dynamics (e.g. equity). Antagonistic responses among farm types reduced overall system gains, highlighting the interconnectedness of component interactions. Scenario results showed that while nitrogen-fixing legumes improved yields and reduced nutrient mining, they also reduced herd size and increased transhumance pressure. Fertilizer subsidies favored wealthier farms but did not address food insecurity among subsistence households. Intensified residue–manure exchanges enhanced nutrient recycling but had minimal impact at system level.

This study demonstrates the utility of ABMs for exploring the multi-dimensional and multi-level dynamics of mixed farming systems of semi-arid West Africa.

在半干旱的西非，混合作物-牲畜系统是生计的核心，但它们面临着投入效率低、养分枯竭和粮食不安全等方面的持续挑战。这些系统的特点是复杂的社会和生物物理相互作用，产生非线性结果，使可持续管理复杂化。为了揭示这种复杂性，我们开发了tenga -一个基于代理的模型（ABM），模拟了半干旱的布基纳法索700个异质农场的动态。该模型捕捉了作物和牲畜管理、养分流动和农民之间的时空相互作用。利用Morris敏感性分析确定了影响系统行为的关键参数，并通过情景分析探讨了改善作物-牲畜一体化的干预措施，包括豆类强化（增加固氮豆类的功能贡献）、肥料补贴和加强粪便和作物残留物的直接交换。氮吸收效率、牲畜饲料参数、粪便管理和社会互动成为系统结果的关键驱动因素。敏感性分析揭示了非线性反馈，特别是在农场一级效应（如收入）到村庄一级动态（如公平）的传播方面。农场类型之间的拮抗反应降低了整个系统的收益，突出了组成部分相互作用的相互关联性。情景结果表明，固氮豆科植物在提高产量和减少养分开采的同时，也减少了畜群规模，增加了放牧压力。化肥补贴有利于富裕的农场，但并没有解决自给家庭的粮食不安全问题。强化残粪肥交换促进了养分循环，但在系统水平上影响最小。本研究证明了ABMs在探索半干旱西非混合农业系统的多维和多层次动态方面的效用。

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引用次数: 0

Mapping ecosystem services trade-offs as a decision tool for comprehensive ecological land-use planning 地图生态系统服务权衡作为综合生态土地利用规划的决策工具

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111496

Ke Zhao , Sepideh Vatankhah , Zhong-Wei Li

Comprehensive ecological land-use (LU) planning is inherently multi-objective, as it requires the assessment of spatial development suitability across three core objectives: food security, ecological security, and living space. This process involves a complex many-to-many matching problem between two interacting components: multi-suitable land covers (LCs) and competing LU demands. To address this challenge, this study introduces the Mapping Ecosystem Services Trade-offs (MEST) framework, a novel spatial approach designed to resolve such many-to-many relationships. The framework is grounded in nonlinear scientific thinking, which emphasizes relational understanding of complex phenomena, and integrates this perspective with spatial mapping techniques. Specifically, MEST leverages ecosystem services (ES) trade-offs and cascade relationships through a divergent reasoning approach tailored to complex spatial interactions. Eight essential ES are quantified and spatially mapped, both individually and interactively, at a socially relevant scale using a monetary valuation method. Autocorrelation, correlation, and clustering analyses are then employed to identify six distinct socio-ecological subsystems: the Food Provisioning Zone, Eco-Protection Zone, Eco-Transition Zone, Urban Tourism Zone, Ecologically Vulnerable Zone, and Ecological Harmony Zone. Each subsystem represents an area in which ecosystem functions do not produce counterbalancing or mutually constraining effects. Based on these results, three strategic principles are proposed to restructure production, living, and ecological spaces in Khorasan, guiding the spatial delineation of Agricultural Production Areas, Urban Construction Areas, and Ecological Protection Areas. This work addresses a persistent challenge in sustainable development—reconciling competing LUs without diminishing the supply or resilience of vital ES. Overall, the MEST framework demonstrates strong potential for resolving LU conflicts through a simple yet effective algorithm, offering a practical and relationship-oriented approach to sustainable LU management.

综合生态土地利用规划本质上是多目标的，它需要对粮食安全、生态安全和生活空间三个核心目标的空间发展适宜性进行评估。该过程涉及两个相互作用的组件之间复杂的多对多匹配问题：多适合的土地覆盖（LCs）和竞争的土地覆盖需求。为了应对这一挑战，本研究引入了映射生态系统服务权衡（MEST）框架，这是一种新颖的空间方法，旨在解决这种多对多关系。该框架以非线性科学思维为基础，强调对复杂现象的关系理解，并将这种观点与空间映射技术相结合。具体而言，MEST通过针对复杂空间相互作用量身定制的发散推理方法，利用生态系统服务（ES）权衡和级联关系。使用货币评估方法，在与社会相关的尺度上，对8个基本ES进行了量化和空间映射，无论是单独的还是交互的。利用自相关分析、相关分析和聚类分析，确定了粮食供给区、生态保护区、生态过渡区、城市旅游区、生态脆弱区和生态和谐区6个不同的社会生态子系统。每个子系统代表一个生态系统功能不产生平衡或相互制约效应的区域。在此基础上，提出了呼罗珊生产、生活和生态空间重构的三大战略原则，指导了呼罗珊农业生产区、城市建设区域和生态保护区的空间划分。这项工作解决了可持续发展中的一个长期挑战，即在不减少重要生态系统供应或恢复力的情况下协调相互竞争的生态系统。总的来说，MEST框架展示了通过简单而有效的算法解决逻辑单元冲突的强大潜力，为可持续的逻辑单元管理提供了实用的、面向关系的方法。

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引用次数: 0

Demographic rates of Adélie penguins from Approximate Bayesian Computation and time-lapse cameras 基于近似贝叶斯计算和延时相机的adassei企鹅的人口统计学比率

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111488

Clare M. Flynn , Ignacio Juárez-Martínez , Tom Hart , Heather J. Lynch

The underlying mechanisms by which Pygoscelis penguin populations are changing cannot be fully understood without knowledge of how stressors influence specific phases of their life histories. We developed a method to estimate key vital rates of Adélie penguins- age-specific survival, breeding success, and breeding propensity- using Approximate Bayesian Computation and data from time series of abundances and breeding success samples. Our goals were to (1.) estimate demographic vital rates without tracking individuals, (2.) determine the spatial autocorrelation of breeding propensity, and (3.) assess whether auxiliary estimates of breeding success, such as from time-lapse cameras, can improve estimates of penguin demographic rates. We estimated demographic rates for eight Adélie penguin populations in the Antarctic Peninsula region and found that time series of abundances yielded the strongest inference on average adult survival, which our model assumed was shared by all populations, and mean breeding propensity rates for two populations. Adult survival and the highest and lowest cases of breeding propensity were likely discernible because they are strong drivers of trend and interannual variability, respectively. Breeding propensity rates varied by population, though were more similar to nearby populations. This points to breeding propensity being driven primarily by local environmental factors. Surprisingly, the inclusion of auxiliary breeding success data did not improve our estimates of demographic transitions or model performance. This study demonstrates that while some demographic insights remain limited without mark-recapture data, time series of abundances can provide key information on survival and breeding propensity that is readily and cost effectively scaled up.

如果不了解压力源如何影响企鹅生活史的特定阶段，就无法完全理解扁舌企鹅种群变化的潜在机制。我们开发了一种方法，利用近似贝叶斯计算和时间序列丰度和繁殖成功样本的数据来估计ad利亚企鹅的关键关键率——特定年龄的存活率、繁殖成功率和繁殖倾向。我们的目标是：(1)在不跟踪个体的情况下估计人口动态率，(2)确定繁殖倾向的空间自相关性，以及(3)评估繁殖成功的辅助估计，例如从延时相机，是否可以改善对企鹅人口统计率的估计。我们估计了南极半岛地区8个阿德海氏企鹅种群的人口统计率，发现丰度的时间序列对平均成年存活率产生了最强的推断，我们的模型假设所有种群都共享，以及两个种群的平均繁殖倾向率。成虫存活率和繁殖倾向的最高和最低案例可能是可辨别的，因为它们分别是趋势和年际变化的强大驱动因素。繁殖倾向率因种群而异，但与附近种群更为相似。这表明繁殖倾向主要是由当地环境因素驱动的。令人惊讶的是，包括辅助育种成功数据并没有改善我们对人口转变或模型性能的估计。这项研究表明，虽然在没有标记再捕获数据的情况下，一些人口统计学见解仍然有限，但时间序列丰度可以提供关于生存和繁殖倾向的关键信息，这些信息很容易且成本有效地扩大。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating new land cover classes into ecological models to predict their biodiversity impacts 将新的土地覆盖分类纳入生态模型以预测其对生物多样性的影响

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111489

Ellen Knight , Tom D. Breeze , Robbie D. Girling , Alexa Varah , Michael P.D. Garratt , Louise A. Hutchinson , Simon G. Potts , Jo Smith , Tom Staton , Emma Gardner

As the need for sustainable agroecosystems gains recognition, new land cover classes are increasingly emerging in temperate landscapes. Process-based ecological models are often the most suitable initial option for predicting the biodiversity outcomes of such novel systems, particularly when implementation and large-scale baseline data remain scarce. However, there are no accepted guidelines for integrating new land covers into these models.

Using UK silvoarable alley-cropping as a case study, we explore how to introduce this emerging land cover into the established process-based pollinator model, poll4pop. We demonstrate several parameterisation approaches, including proxy land covers, field data, expert opinion and Bayesian calibration. We also provide the first field-scale and seasonally-resolved evaluation of poll4pop, using pollinator abundance data collected at three UK silvoarable sites.

Our results show that models using proxy land cover parameters can capture spatial trends in observed bee abundance where suitable proxies exist, but that predictions are improved by integrating field-derived floral cover. Neither bespoke, expert-derived, land cover attractiveness scores nor Bayesian-calibrated scores improved our model fit, although they did reveal valuable insights into model parameter sensitivity. Overall, poll4pop effectively reproduced observed fine-scale spatial variation in bumblebee and spring-flying solitary bee foraging activity in silvoarable systems. However, seasonal differences between communities resulted in reduced model-predictive performance for summer-flying solitary bees.

We demonstrate that poll4pop is suitable for modelling fine-scale pollinator abundance in complex mixed-cropping systems. We also present a practical framework for integrating new land cover classes into process-based models which can guide future modelling of emerging land use systems.

随着人们对可持续农业生态系统的需求日益认识，温带景观中越来越多地出现了新的土地覆盖类别。基于过程的生态模型通常是预测这类新系统的生物多样性结果的最合适的初始选择，特别是在实施和大规模基线数据仍然稀缺的情况下。然而，目前还没有将新的土地覆盖纳入这些模型的公认准则。本文以英国可耕林间作物为例，探讨了如何将这种新兴的土地覆盖引入已建立的基于过程的传粉媒介模型poll4pop中。我们展示了几种参数化方法，包括代理土地覆盖、实地数据、专家意见和贝叶斯校准。我们还利用在英国三个可耕作地点收集的传粉者丰度数据，首次对poll4pop进行了田间规模和季节性的评估。我们的研究结果表明，使用代理土地覆盖参数的模型可以在存在合适代理的情况下捕捉到观测到的蜜蜂丰度的空间趋势，但通过整合田间来源的花卉覆盖可以改进预测。定制的、专家衍生的、土地覆盖吸引力评分和贝叶斯校准的评分都没有改善我们的模型拟合，尽管它们确实揭示了对模型参数敏感性的有价值的见解。总体而言，poll4pop有效地再现了可耕系统中大黄蜂和春飞独居蜜蜂觅食活动的精细尺度空间变化。然而，群落之间的季节差异导致夏季飞行的独居蜜蜂的模型预测性能降低。我们证明poll4pop适合于模拟复杂混作系统中精细尺度的传粉媒介丰度。我们还提出了一个实用的框架，用于将新的土地覆盖类别整合到基于过程的模型中，该模型可以指导未来新兴土地利用系统的建模。

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