Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111502
Kangkang Mi , Wenping Cui , Ying Zhao , Tingting Ji , Yuyang Song
The growth of plants is influenced by competition and facilitation with neighboring plants. Most studies have focused on the impact of competition on the growth rate of key plants. It is worth noting that under high-stress conditions, the combined impact of facilitation and competition interactions on the growth rate of plant biomass has not been fully explored. In this study, we utilized the zone-of-influence Model (ZOI) to simulate the growth of saplings and adult trees under different interaction modes. Our research results indicate that the interaction can alleviate or even reverse the decline in the relative biomass growth rate of plants. This depends on the competitive and facilitation modes that the plant has gone through. By adjusting parameters such as population structure, interaction modes, and individual size in ZOI, the actual growth conditions of field plants can be simulated. We found that the actual relative biomass growth rate of Haloxylon ammodendron (C.A. Mey.) changes over time, reflecting the competitive and facilitation modes at different developmental stages, and emphasizing the dynamic nature of interactions during plant growth.
{"title":"The changes in the relative biomass growth rate of plants reveal the different interaction modes under high-stress","authors":"Kangkang Mi , Wenping Cui , Ying Zhao , Tingting Ji , Yuyang Song","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111502","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111502","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growth of plants is influenced by competition and facilitation with neighboring plants. Most studies have focused on the impact of competition on the growth rate of key plants. It is worth noting that under high-stress conditions, the combined impact of facilitation and competition interactions on the growth rate of plant biomass has not been fully explored. In this study, we utilized the zone-of-influence Model (ZOI) to simulate the growth of saplings and adult trees under different interaction modes. Our research results indicate that the interaction can alleviate or even reverse the decline in the relative biomass growth rate of plants. This depends on the competitive and facilitation modes that the plant has gone through. By adjusting parameters such as population structure, interaction modes, and individual size in ZOI, the actual growth conditions of field plants can be simulated. We found that the actual relative biomass growth rate of <em>Haloxylon ammodendron</em> (C.A. Mey.) changes over time, reflecting the competitive and facilitation modes at different developmental stages, and emphasizing the dynamic nature of interactions during plant growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111502"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111501
Bruno Oliveira Lafetá, Rafael Gomes Leão, Ana Clara Gomes de Queirós, Caroline Junqueira Sartori, Natália Risso Fonseca, Ivan da Costa Ilhéu Fontan
Accurate confidence intervals for volume are indispensable for planning and decision-making in sustainable forest management and environmental regulation. This study evaluated, through extensive simulations, the robustness of statistical methods for estimating confidence limits. The database comprised simulated datasets from 64 scenarios combining two vegetation typologies, two sample distributions (Normal and Log-normal), four sample sizes (5–20 units), and four variability levels. Generalization was assessed in 28 additional scenarios using Gamma and Weibull distributions to represent conditions in Ombrophilous Forests. Confidence limits (90% probability) were estimated using four methods: (A) classical t-Student; (B) Percentile Bootstrap; (C) Jackknife-z; and (D) a median-based variant of A. Our results demonstrate the superior robustness of the classical Method A. It consistently delivered coverage probabilities nearest the nominal 90% level across all distributions, including symmetric (Normal), positively skewed (Log-normal, Gamma), and negatively skewed (Weibull) conditions. Even for the smallest sample size (n=5), Method A maintained reliable coverage (85.5–96.0%), while resampling methods showed significant undercoverage (often ≤85%), and the median-based approach introduced substantial bias. We conclude that the classical t-based method provides the most reliable confidence limits for inventories with sampling constraints, proving robust under high variability and non-normal data without computationally intensive techniques. These findings, derived from a controlled simulation, provide a robust methodological framework; their application to field data should consider the specific characteristics of the target population.
{"title":"Strategies for calculating confidence limits in forest inventories","authors":"Bruno Oliveira Lafetá, Rafael Gomes Leão, Ana Clara Gomes de Queirós, Caroline Junqueira Sartori, Natália Risso Fonseca, Ivan da Costa Ilhéu Fontan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111501","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111501","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate confidence intervals for volume are indispensable for planning and decision-making in sustainable forest management and environmental regulation. This study evaluated, through extensive simulations, the robustness of statistical methods for estimating confidence limits. The database comprised simulated datasets from 64 scenarios combining two vegetation typologies, two sample distributions (Normal and Log-normal), four sample sizes (5–20 units), and four variability levels. Generalization was assessed in 28 additional scenarios using Gamma and Weibull distributions to represent conditions in Ombrophilous Forests. Confidence limits (90% probability) were estimated using four methods: (A) classical t-Student; (B) Percentile Bootstrap; (C) Jackknife-<em>z</em>; and (D) a median-based variant of A. Our results demonstrate the superior robustness of the classical Method A. It consistently delivered coverage probabilities nearest the nominal 90% level across all distributions, including symmetric (Normal), positively skewed (Log-normal, Gamma), and negatively skewed (Weibull) conditions. Even for the smallest sample size (n=5), Method A maintained reliable coverage (85.5–96.0%), while resampling methods showed significant undercoverage (often ≤85%), and the median-based approach introduced substantial bias. We conclude that the classical t-based method provides the most reliable confidence limits for inventories with sampling constraints, proving robust under high variability and non-normal data without computationally intensive techniques. These findings, derived from a controlled simulation, provide a robust methodological framework; their application to field data should consider the specific characteristics of the target population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111501"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-13DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111465
Tjui Yeuw Tan , Andrew G. Hirst , Joop W.P. Coolen , Jan Jaap Poos , Jaap van der Meer
Primary consumers, also known as grazers, transfer energy fixated by primary production to higher trophic levels. In aquatic environments, two grazer groups are dominant — those living in the open water (pelagic) and those living associated to a surface (benthic). When traits are used to compare both groups, selecting the appropriate traits to compare is a crucial step. Bioenergetic approaches can help standardize trait selection and identify which are most relevant. We showed the bioenergetic traits that differentiate these grazer groups using Dynamic Energy Budget theory. We also explored the life-history implications of expressing such traits. Pelagic grazers reach sexual maturity faster and use more energy for somatic maintenance per unit of structural volume. The energy used in somatic maintenance is also associated to nitrogen excretion, which helps cycle nutrients in the water column. In contrast, benthic grazers generally consume less oxygen per unit of dry weight and are more efficient in producing biomass from assimilated energy. The bioenergetic traits driving differences between grazer groups uncover the emergence of contrasting body sizes, development rates, and life-span. Predictions based on these traits also reveal different ecosystem roles in terms of nutrient cycling and biomass fixation. This bioenergetic approach clarifies how different traits contribute to the relative roles of organisms in an ecosystem.
{"title":"Functional differences between aquatic herbivores emerge from bioenergetic processes","authors":"Tjui Yeuw Tan , Andrew G. Hirst , Joop W.P. Coolen , Jan Jaap Poos , Jaap van der Meer","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111465","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111465","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Primary consumers, also known as grazers, transfer energy fixated by primary production to higher trophic levels. In aquatic environments, two grazer groups are dominant — those living in the open water (pelagic) and those living associated to a surface (benthic). When traits are used to compare both groups, selecting the appropriate traits to compare is a crucial step. Bioenergetic approaches can help standardize trait selection and identify which are most relevant. We showed the bioenergetic traits that differentiate these grazer groups using Dynamic Energy Budget theory. We also explored the life-history implications of expressing such traits. Pelagic grazers reach sexual maturity faster and use more energy for somatic maintenance per unit of structural volume. The energy used in somatic maintenance is also associated to nitrogen excretion, which helps cycle nutrients in the water column. In contrast, benthic grazers generally consume less oxygen per unit of dry weight and are more efficient in producing biomass from assimilated energy. The bioenergetic traits driving differences between grazer groups uncover the emergence of contrasting body sizes, development rates, and life-span. Predictions based on these traits also reveal different ecosystem roles in terms of nutrient cycling and biomass fixation. This bioenergetic approach clarifies how different traits contribute to the relative roles of organisms in an ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111465"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145978005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-27DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111458
Tao Xu , Alex Neumann , Yasasi Fernando , Maria Dittrich , David Depew , George Arhonditsis
Phosphorus (P) control is a widely used strategy for the remediation of impaired eutrophic lakes. However, the severity of eutrophication phenomena may persist well after the reduction of external P loading, which is often attributed to internal subsidies associated with the legacy P stores within the sediments. In this study, we investigated a eutrophic system in western Lake Ontario, the Hamilton Harbour, where both external P and iron (Fe) loading rates have been declining over the course of the past two decades. A sediment diagenesis process-based model was developed and calibrated using sediment profiles from 2016 and historical records of hypolimnion P accumulation rates. Modelling results suggest that transient conditions currently prevail in the harbour’s sediments, as the external P and Fe subsidies into the system shifted from the historically elevated discharge rates to the present lower levels. The model corroborated that high deposition fluxes of Fe oxyhydroxides (FeOOH) and oxidation of ferrous Fe could have been conducive to porewater P immobilization in the past, resulting in minimal internal P loading rates between 1987 and the early 2000s - even during periods of high external P loading - while simultaneously storing large amounts of legacy (primarily Fe-bound) P in the sediments. Notwithstanding the reduced external P inputs, our model analysis showed that internal P loading displayed a sharp increase during the 2010s, which was driven by a diminished capacity of Fe to bind P, compared to levels experienced during the 1990s, and the dissolution-driven release of legacy Fe-bound P. We subsequently conducted a local sensitivity analysis to evaluate the key drivers of internal P loading. The three most sensitive parameters during the simulation period (1987–2016) were the organic matter (OM) deposition flux, FeOOH deposition rate, and dissolved oxygen concentration at the sediment-water interface (SWI). These findings reinforce the importance of sedimentary Fe-P cycling in regulating internal P dynamics in the Hamilton Harbour. The model also examined the evolving role of sulfur (S) suggesting that while S had little effect on the P cycle during the earlier years due to the abundance of Fe oxyhydroxides, its potential influence may have increased over time. These identified trends collectively highlight the growing complexity and potential nonlinearity of Fe-P-S interactions in the sediments of a system under transient loading regimes.
{"title":"Modelling sediment diagenesis processes in a freshwater ecosystem experiencing transient external phosphorus and iron loading","authors":"Tao Xu , Alex Neumann , Yasasi Fernando , Maria Dittrich , David Depew , George Arhonditsis","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111458","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111458","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Phosphorus (P) control is a widely used strategy for the remediation of impaired eutrophic lakes. However, the severity of eutrophication phenomena may persist well after the reduction of external P loading, which is often attributed to internal subsidies associated with the legacy P stores within the sediments. In this study, we investigated a eutrophic system in western Lake Ontario, the Hamilton Harbour, where both external P and iron (Fe) loading rates have been declining over the course of the past two decades. A sediment diagenesis process-based model was developed and calibrated using sediment profiles from 2016 and historical records of hypolimnion P accumulation rates. Modelling results suggest that transient conditions currently prevail in the harbour’s sediments, as the external P and Fe subsidies into the system shifted from the historically elevated discharge rates to the present lower levels. The model corroborated that high deposition fluxes of Fe oxyhydroxides (FeOOH) and oxidation of ferrous Fe could have been conducive to porewater P immobilization in the past, resulting in minimal internal P loading rates between 1987 and the early 2000s - even during periods of high external P loading - while simultaneously storing large amounts of legacy (primarily Fe-bound) P in the sediments. Notwithstanding the reduced external P inputs, our model analysis showed that internal P loading displayed a sharp increase during the 2010s, which was driven by a diminished capacity of Fe to bind P, compared to levels experienced during the 1990s, and the dissolution-driven release of legacy Fe-bound P. We subsequently conducted a local sensitivity analysis to evaluate the key drivers of internal P loading. The three most sensitive parameters during the simulation period (1987–2016) were the organic matter (OM) deposition flux, FeOOH deposition rate, and dissolved oxygen concentration at the sediment-water interface (SWI). These findings reinforce the importance of sedimentary Fe-P cycling in regulating internal P dynamics in the Hamilton Harbour. The model also examined the evolving role of sulfur (S) suggesting that while S had little effect on the P cycle during the earlier years due to the abundance of Fe oxyhydroxides, its potential influence may have increased over time. These identified trends collectively highlight the growing complexity and potential nonlinearity of Fe-P-S interactions in the sediments of a system under transient loading regimes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111458"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145842334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111468
A. Martínez-Biosca , C. Hernández-Crespo , E. Asensi , I. Andrés-Doménech , M.Eugenia Rodrigo-Santamalia , V. Benedito-Durá , M. Martín
Free water surface constructed wetlands (FWSCWs) replicate the ecological functions of natural wetlands, providing multiple ecosystem services, including water quality improvement. The Tancat de la Pipa constructed wetland (TPCW), located in Albufera Natural Park, Valencia, Spain, was designed to mitigate lake eutrophication. Its role in treating urban runoff, particularly from combined sewer overflows (CSOs), was recently assessed. Hydrodynamic modelling revealed that three-parallel lines with tanks-in-series configuration best represents the wetland’s flow dynamics. By applying the water quality model, the main mechanisms enabling the TPCW, originally not designed for runoff control, to mitigate pollution peaks from CSO discharges were identified. Ammonium removal was primarily driven by washout and nitrification, while sedimentation dominated TSS reduction. These findings emphasize the critical role of FWSCWs in managing diffuse pollution from CSOs and highlight the potential of predictive water quality models to optimize wetland performance under variable inflow conditions.
自由水面人工湿地（FWSCWs）复制天然湿地的生态功能，提供多种生态系统服务，包括改善水质。Tancat de la Pipa人工湿地（TPCW）位于西班牙瓦伦西亚的Albufera自然公园，旨在缓解湖泊富营养化。最近评估了它在处理城市径流，特别是来自合流下水道溢流（cso）的作用。水动力模型表明，三平行线串联水槽的配置最能代表湿地的流动动力学。通过应用水质模型，确定了使TPCW（最初不是为径流控制而设计的）减轻CSO排放污染峰值的主要机制。氨的去除主要由冲刷和硝化作用驱动，而TSS还原主要由沉淀作用驱动。这些发现强调了FWSCWs在管理来自公民社会组织的弥漫性污染方面的关键作用，并强调了预测水质模型在不同入流条件下优化湿地性能的潜力。
{"title":"Hydrodynamic and water quality modelling of a free water surface constructed wetland for urban runoff mitigation","authors":"A. Martínez-Biosca , C. Hernández-Crespo , E. Asensi , I. Andrés-Doménech , M.Eugenia Rodrigo-Santamalia , V. Benedito-Durá , M. Martín","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111468","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111468","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Free water surface constructed wetlands (FWSCWs) replicate the ecological functions of natural wetlands, providing multiple ecosystem services, including water quality improvement. The Tancat de la Pipa constructed wetland (TPCW), located in Albufera Natural Park, Valencia, Spain, was designed to mitigate lake eutrophication. Its role in treating urban runoff, particularly from combined sewer overflows (CSOs), was recently assessed. Hydrodynamic modelling revealed that three-parallel lines with tanks-in-series configuration best represents the wetland’s flow dynamics. By applying the water quality model, the main mechanisms enabling the TPCW, originally not designed for runoff control, to mitigate pollution peaks from CSO discharges were identified. Ammonium removal was primarily driven by washout and nitrification, while sedimentation dominated TSS reduction. These findings emphasize the critical role of FWSCWs in managing diffuse pollution from CSOs and highlight the potential of predictive water quality models to optimize wetland performance under variable inflow conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111468"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145886254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-17DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111487
Teddy Lazebnik , Yehuda Samuel , Jonathan Tichon , Roi Lapid , Roni King , Tomer Nissimyan , Orr Spiegel
The transmission of zoonotic diseases between animals and humans poses an increasing threat. Rabies is a prominent example with various instances globally. The abundance of anthropogenic resources leads to dense populations meso-predators close to human establishments. These facultative synanthropic species such as golden jackals (Canis aureus, hereafter jackals) facilitate the spread of rabies. To mitigate rabies outbreaks and prevent human infections, the Israeli authorities target the jackal, which is the main rabies vector in many regions, through a wide spread dissemination of oral vaccines, as well as opportunistic dilution to reduce population density in known jackals’ activity centers. Because dilution is not selective towards sick or un-vaccinated individuals, these two complementary epizootic intervention policies (EIPs, vaccination and dilution) can interfere with each other but their interactive effectiveness remains understudied, limiting their simultaneous application. In this study, we aim to address this knowledge gap by modeling the combined effect of these EIPs on rabies epizootic spread dynamics. Towards this end, we introduce a novel spatio-temporal extended-SIR (susceptible–infected–recovered) model with a graph-based spatial framework. After formulating the model, we implement it in the case study of the jackal population in northern Israel, by using spatial and movement tracking data (bio-telemetry). Realizing the model as an agent-based simulation approach allows us to explore various biologically-realistic scenarios, and assess the impact of different EIPs configurations. Our model suggests that under biologically-realistic underlying assumptions and scenarios, the effectiveness of both EIPs is not influenced much by the jackal population size but is sensitive to their dispersal between adjacent activity centers. Furthermore, we show both theoretically and empirically, that interference between the two EIPs can lead to mal-practice. Counter intuitively, there are cases in which the practice of both EIPs together actually leads to an increas in the spread of the epizootic (or endemic), due to elevated vector movement and removal of vaccinated individuals. Our findings emphasize the importance of accurately capturing the local jackal movement dynamics to obtain and predict the desired outcome from an applied EIP configuration, and the value of extended-SIR models in predicting the efficiency of realistic EIP scenarios
{"title":"An empirically-parameterized spatio-temporal extended-SIR model for combined dilution and vaccination mitigation for rabies outbreaks in wild jackals","authors":"Teddy Lazebnik , Yehuda Samuel , Jonathan Tichon , Roi Lapid , Roni King , Tomer Nissimyan , Orr Spiegel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111487","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111487","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transmission of zoonotic diseases between animals and humans poses an increasing threat. Rabies is a prominent example with various instances globally. The abundance of anthropogenic resources leads to dense populations meso-predators close to human establishments. These facultative synanthropic species such as golden jackals (<em>Canis aureus</em>, hereafter jackals) facilitate the spread of rabies. To mitigate rabies outbreaks and prevent human infections, the Israeli authorities target the jackal, which is the main rabies vector in many regions, through a wide spread dissemination of oral vaccines, as well as opportunistic dilution to reduce population density in known jackals’ activity centers. Because dilution is not selective towards sick or un-vaccinated individuals, these two complementary epizootic intervention policies (EIPs, vaccination and dilution) can interfere with each other but their interactive effectiveness remains understudied, limiting their simultaneous application. In this study, we aim to address this knowledge gap by modeling the combined effect of these EIPs on rabies epizootic spread dynamics. Towards this end, we introduce a novel spatio-temporal extended-SIR (susceptible–infected–recovered) model with a graph-based spatial framework. After formulating the model, we implement it in the case study of the jackal population in northern Israel, by using spatial and movement tracking data (bio-telemetry). Realizing the model as an agent-based simulation approach allows us to explore various biologically-realistic scenarios, and assess the impact of different EIPs configurations. Our model suggests that under biologically-realistic underlying assumptions and scenarios, the effectiveness of both EIPs is not influenced much by the jackal population size but is sensitive to their dispersal between adjacent activity centers. Furthermore, we show both theoretically and empirically, that interference between the two EIPs can lead to mal-practice. Counter intuitively, there are cases in which the practice of both EIPs together actually leads to an increas in the spread of the epizootic (or endemic), due to elevated vector movement and removal of vaccinated individuals. Our findings emphasize the importance of accurately capturing the local jackal movement dynamics to obtain and predict the desired outcome from an applied EIP configuration, and the value of extended-SIR models in predicting the efficiency of realistic EIP scenarios</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111487"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-26DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111476
J. Fransje van Weerden , Rineke Verbrugge , Jan Komdeur
Group living benefits foraging individuals by improving their survival through passive risk dilution by sheer numbers and increasingly active processes, ranging from cue transmission to alarm calling. Focusing on the lower end of this range: an involuntary visual cue can be given by a fleeing action, leading to cue transmission within a group. Our model is a bottom-up model of foragers as agents embodied in a simple environment, with only assumptions about basic living competences, valid for a wide range of species, leading to conclusions about benefits of group living without calling on higher cognition.
We use an agent-based, spatially explicit C++-model to investigate the effect of predator disturbances, to which always fleeing is the appropriate reaction. To make the environment more realistic and to include not only predators, we added harmless passers-by that cause false, unnecessary, fleeing. We set out to investigate whether adaptive behaviour could improve outcomes: We investigated whether two common subconscious behaviours can mitigate the detrimental effects of false fleeing. The first is “experience gain”, a sensory change; the second is “fear updating,” an emotional change.
To implement these behaviours we needed to: 1) model the anti-predator behaviour chain of “detection, recognition, and response” for which we added a recognition phase, 2) handle the combined probabilities of the detection and recognition sigmoids, and 3) define the initial settings for the three fear levels we added: one each for predator and passer-by and one for the environment, needed for the response in case of detection without recognition. These modelling decisions are shown to be very important. Situations with new predators or newly released groups can be mapped to these initial settings, distinguishing whether the forager group encounters a familiar predator type or a novel one, for instance, giving insight into what is most important for forager groups.
{"title":"Effects of different coping strategies in foragers dealing with predators and non-predators: a spatial agent-based modelling account","authors":"J. Fransje van Weerden , Rineke Verbrugge , Jan Komdeur","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111476","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Group living benefits foraging individuals by improving their survival through passive risk dilution by sheer numbers and increasingly active processes, ranging from cue transmission to alarm calling. Focusing on the lower end of this range: an involuntary visual cue can be given by a fleeing action, leading to cue transmission within a group. Our model is a bottom-up model of foragers as agents embodied in a simple environment, with only assumptions about basic living competences, valid for a wide range of species, leading to conclusions about benefits of group living without calling on higher cognition.</div><div>We use an agent-based, spatially explicit <em>C</em>++-model to investigate the effect of predator disturbances, to which always fleeing is the appropriate reaction. To make the environment more realistic and to include not only predators, we added harmless passers-by that cause false, unnecessary, fleeing. We set out to investigate whether adaptive behaviour could improve outcomes: We investigated whether two common subconscious behaviours can mitigate the detrimental effects of false fleeing. The first is “experience gain”, a sensory change; the second is “fear updating,” an emotional change.</div><div>To implement these behaviours we needed to: 1) model the anti-predator behaviour chain of “detection, recognition, and response” for which we added a recognition phase, 2) handle the combined probabilities of the detection and recognition sigmoids, and 3) define the initial settings for the three fear levels we added: one each for predator and passer-by and one for the environment, needed for the response in case of detection without recognition. These modelling decisions are shown to be very important. Situations with new predators or newly released groups can be mapped to these initial settings, distinguishing whether the forager group encounters a familiar predator type or a novel one, for instance, giving insight into what is most important for forager groups.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111476"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-29DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111461
Róbert Juhász , Igor D. Kovács , Beáta Oborny
The survival of populations hinges on their ability to offset local extinctions through new colonizations. The dispersal area (A) plays a crucial role in this process, as it determines the probability of finding colonizable vacant sites. We investigated the spatial colonization-extinction dynamics in a lattice model (a contact process), exploring various finite dispersal areas (A) and estimating the extinction threshold λE(A). Our results revealed a consistent λE(A) relationship, largely independent of lattice geometry (except for the smallest A). This λE(A) relationship obeyed universal scaling laws within two broad ranges of A. The scaling relations suggest considerable selection upon the increase of dispersal area, particularly at low A values. We discuss these findings in the broader context of the evolution of dispersal area.
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Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111489
Ellen Knight , Tom D. Breeze , Robbie D. Girling , Alexa Varah , Michael P.D. Garratt , Louise A. Hutchinson , Simon G. Potts , Jo Smith , Tom Staton , Emma Gardner
As the need for sustainable agroecosystems gains recognition, new land cover classes are increasingly emerging in temperate landscapes. Process-based ecological models are often the most suitable initial option for predicting the biodiversity outcomes of such novel systems, particularly when implementation and large-scale baseline data remain scarce. However, there are no accepted guidelines for integrating new land covers into these models.
Using UK silvoarable alley-cropping as a case study, we explore how to introduce this emerging land cover into the established process-based pollinator model, poll4pop. We demonstrate several parameterisation approaches, including proxy land covers, field data, expert opinion and Bayesian calibration. We also provide the first field-scale and seasonally-resolved evaluation of poll4pop, using pollinator abundance data collected at three UK silvoarable sites.
Our results show that models using proxy land cover parameters can capture spatial trends in observed bee abundance where suitable proxies exist, but that predictions are improved by integrating field-derived floral cover. Neither bespoke, expert-derived, land cover attractiveness scores nor Bayesian-calibrated scores improved our model fit, although they did reveal valuable insights into model parameter sensitivity. Overall, poll4pop effectively reproduced observed fine-scale spatial variation in bumblebee and spring-flying solitary bee foraging activity in silvoarable systems. However, seasonal differences between communities resulted in reduced model-predictive performance for summer-flying solitary bees.
We demonstrate that poll4pop is suitable for modelling fine-scale pollinator abundance in complex mixed-cropping systems. We also present a practical framework for integrating new land cover classes into process-based models which can guide future modelling of emerging land use systems.
{"title":"Integrating new land cover classes into ecological models to predict their biodiversity impacts","authors":"Ellen Knight , Tom D. Breeze , Robbie D. Girling , Alexa Varah , Michael P.D. Garratt , Louise A. Hutchinson , Simon G. Potts , Jo Smith , Tom Staton , Emma Gardner","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111489","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111489","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the need for sustainable agroecosystems gains recognition, new land cover classes are increasingly emerging in temperate landscapes. Process-based ecological models are often the most suitable initial option for predicting the biodiversity outcomes of such novel systems, particularly when implementation and large-scale baseline data remain scarce. However, there are no accepted guidelines for integrating new land covers into these models.</div><div>Using UK silvoarable alley-cropping as a case study, we explore how to introduce this emerging land cover into the established process-based pollinator model, poll4pop. We demonstrate several parameterisation approaches, including proxy land covers, field data, expert opinion and Bayesian calibration. We also provide the first field-scale and seasonally-resolved evaluation of poll4pop, using pollinator abundance data collected at three UK silvoarable sites.</div><div>Our results show that models using proxy land cover parameters can capture spatial trends in observed bee abundance where suitable proxies exist, but that predictions are improved by integrating field-derived floral cover. Neither bespoke, expert-derived, land cover attractiveness scores nor Bayesian-calibrated scores improved our model fit, although they did reveal valuable insights into model parameter sensitivity. Overall, poll4pop effectively reproduced observed fine-scale spatial variation in bumblebee and spring-flying solitary bee foraging activity in silvoarable systems. However, seasonal differences between communities resulted in reduced model-predictive performance for summer-flying solitary bees.</div><div>We demonstrate that poll4pop is suitable for modelling fine-scale pollinator abundance in complex mixed-cropping systems. We also present a practical framework for integrating new land cover classes into process-based models which can guide future modelling of emerging land use systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111489"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111499
Sebastiaan A.L.M. Kooijman , Starrlight Augustine
Organisms typically need each other, with syntrophy as the dominant form of interaction: exchanging products. This is clear at the population, ecosystem and planet Earth levels, but we argue that syntrophy is also fundamental to individual and cellular physiology. With a very simple predator–prey model we illustrate that even predator–prey interactions are dominated by syntrophic principles if attention is paid to nutritional “details”. Our hope is that, by strengthening the coherence of research over time and space scales, research becomes more effective with the syntrophic principle in its core. For this purpose, we briefly evaluate current evolution research to highlight some points that we see as problematic and propose improvements using the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory.
{"title":"The syntrophic nature of life’s evolution","authors":"Sebastiaan A.L.M. Kooijman , Starrlight Augustine","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111499","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111499","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Organisms typically need each other, with syntrophy as the dominant form of interaction: exchanging products. This is clear at the population, ecosystem and planet Earth levels, but we argue that syntrophy is also fundamental to individual and cellular physiology. With a very simple predator–prey model we illustrate that even predator–prey interactions are dominated by syntrophic principles if attention is paid to nutritional “details”. Our hope is that, by strengthening the coherence of research over time and space scales, research becomes more effective with the syntrophic principle in its core. For this purpose, we briefly evaluate current evolution research to highlight some points that we see as problematic and propose improvements using the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"514 ","pages":"Article 111499"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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