Mathematical Biosciences最新文献

Based on the distinctive spatial diffusion characteristics observed in syphilis transmission patterns, this paper introduces a novel reaction–diffusion model for syphilis disease dynamics, incorporating general incidence functions within a heterogeneous environment. We derive the basic reproduction number essential for threshold dynamics and investigate the uniform persistence of the model. We validate the model and estimate its parameters by employing the multi-objective Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, using real syphilis data from the years 2004 to 2018 in China. Furthermore, we explore the impact of spatial heterogeneity and intervention measures on syphilis transmission. Our findings reveal several key insights: (1) In addition to the original high-incidence areas of syphilis, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Hunan and Northeast China have also emerged as high-incidence regions for syphilis in China. (2) The latent syphilis cases represent the highest proportion of newly reported cases, highlighting the critical importance of considering their role in transmission dynamics to avoid underestimation of syphilis outbreaks. (3) Neglecting spatial heterogeneity results in an underestimation of disease prevalence and the number of syphilis-infected individuals, undermining effective disease prevention and control strategies. (4) The initial conditions have minimal impact on the long-term spatial distribution of syphilis-infected individuals in scenarios of varying diffusion rates. This study underscores the significance of spatial dynamics and intervention measures in assessing and managing syphilis transmission, which offers insights for public health policymakers.

We construct, analyze and interpret a mathematical model for an environmental transmitted disease characterized for the existence of three disease stages: acute, severe and asymptomatic. Besides, we consider that severe and asymptomatic cases may present relapse between them. Transmission dynamics driven by the contact rates only occurs when a parameter $R_{\ast }>1$, as normally occur in directly-transmitted or vector-transmitted diseases, but it will not adequately correspond to a basic reproductive number as it depends on environmental parameters. In this case, the forward transcritical bifurcation that exists for $R_{\ast }<1$, becomes a backward bifurcation, producing multiple steady-states, a hysteresis effect and dependence on initial conditions. A threshold parameter for an epidemic outbreak, independent of $R_{\ast }$ is only the ratio of the external contamination inflow shedding rate to the environmental clearance rate. $R_{\ast }$ describes the strength of the transmission to infectious classes other than the $I$-(acute) type infections. The epidemic outbreak conditions and the structure of $R_{\ast }$ appearing in this model are both responsible for the existence of endemic states.

Ventricular ventricular interaction (VVI) affects blood volume and pressure in the right and left ventricles of the heart due to the location and balance of forces on the septal wall separating the ventricles. In healthy patients, the pressure of the left ventricle is considerably higher than the right, resulting in a septal wall that bows into the right ventricle. However, in patients with pulmonary hypertension, the pressure in the right ventricle increases significantly to a point where the pressure is similar to or surpasses that of the left ventricle during portions of the cardiac cycle. For these patients, the septal wall deviates towards the left ventricle, impacting its function. It is possible to study this effect using mathematical modeling, but existing models are nonlinear, leading to a system of algebraic differential equations that can be challenging to solve in patient-specific optimizations of clinical data. This study demonstrates that a simplified linearized model is sufficient to account for the effect of VVI and that, as expected, the impact is significantly more pronounced in patients with pulmonary hypertension.

The notion of the fitness of a strategy has been assimilated as the reproductive success in the evolutionary game. Initially, this fitness was tied to the game’s pay-off and the strategy’s relative frequency. However, density dependence becomes exigent in order to make ecologically reliable fitness. However, the contributions of each different type of interaction to the species’s overall growth process were surprisingly under-explored. This oversight has occasionally led to either more or less prediction of strategy selection compared to the actual possibility. Moreover, density regulation of the population has always been analysed in a general way compared to strategy selection. In this context, our study introduces the concept of mean relative death payoff, which helps in assessing interaction intensity coefficients and integrates them into strategic fitness. Based on this fitness function, we develop the frequency-density replicator dynamics, which eventually provides distinguishing criteria for directional and balancing selection. Our optimized, evolutionarily stable strategy emerges as a superior alternative to the conventional trade-off between selection forces and ecological processes. More significantly, mean relative death pay-off has both conditional and quantitative roles in getting a stable population size. As a case study, we have extensively analysed the evolution of aggression using the Hawk-Dove game. We have shown that pure Dove selection is always beneficial for species growth rather than pure Hawk selection, and the condition of selection is dependent on external mortality pressure. However, the condition of coexistence is independent of external mortality pressure, representing a strong evolutionary selection that optimizes population density governed by interaction intensity.

We consider an SEIR epidemic model on a network also allowing random contacts, where recovered individuals could either recover naturally or be diagnosed. Upon diagnosis, manual contact tracing is triggered such that each infected network contact is reported, tested and isolated with some probability and after a random delay. Additionally, digital tracing (based on a tracing app) is triggered if the diagnosed individual is an app-user, and then all of its app-using infectees are immediately notified and isolated. The early phase of the epidemic with manual and/or digital tracing is approximated by different multi-type branching processes, and three respective reproduction numbers are derived. The effectiveness of both contact tracing mechanisms is numerically quantified through the reduction of the reproduction number. This shows that app-using fraction plays an essential role in the overall effectiveness of contact tracing. The relative effectiveness of manual tracing compared to digital tracing increases if: more of the transmission occurs on the network, when the tracing delay is shortened, and when the network degree distribution is heavy-tailed. For realistic values, the combined tracing case can reduce $R_0$ by 20%–30%, so other preventive measures are needed to reduce the reproduction number down to 1.2–1.4 for contact tracing to make it successful in avoiding big outbreaks.

Recent studies have utilized evolutionary mechanisms to impede the emergence of drug-resistant populations. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model that integrates hormonal treatment, immunotherapy, and the interactions among three cell types: drug-sensitive cancer cells, drug-resistant cancer cells and immune effector cells. Dynamical analysis is performed, examining the existence and stability of equilibria, thereby confirming the model’s interpretability. Model parameters are calibrated using available prostate cancer data and literature. Through bifurcation analysis for drug sensitivity under different immune effector cells recruitment responses, we find that resistant cancer cells grow rapidly under weak recruitment response, maintain at a low level under strong recruitment response, and both may occur under moderate recruitment response. To quantify the competitiveness of sensitive and resistant cells, we introduce the comprehensive measures $R_1$ and $R_2$, respectively, which determine the outcome of competition. Additionally, we introduce the quantitative indicators $CI{E}_1$ and $CI{E}_2$ as comprehensive measures of the immune effects on sensitive and resistant cancer cells, respectively. These two indicators determine whether the corresponding cancer cells can maintain at a low level. Our work shows that the immune system is an important factor affecting the evolution of drug resistance and provides insights into how to enhance immune response to control resistance.

A fundamental feature of collective cell migration is phenotypic heterogeneity which, for example, influences tumour progression and relapse. While current mathematical models often consider discrete phenotypic structuring of the cell population, in-line with the ‘go-or-grow’ hypothesis (Hatzikirou et al., 2012; Stepien et al., 2018), they regularly overlook the role that the environment may play in determining the cells’ phenotype during migration. Comparing a previously studied volume-filling model for a homogeneous population of generalist cells that can proliferate, move and degrade extracellular matrix (ECM) (Crossley et al., 2023) to a novel model for a heterogeneous population comprising two distinct sub-populations of specialist cells that can either move and degrade ECM or proliferate, this study explores how different hypothetical phenotypic switching mechanisms affect the speed and structure of the invading cell populations. Through a continuum model derived from its individual-based counterpart, insights into the influence of the ECM and the impact of phenotypic switching on migrating cell populations emerge. Notably, specialist cell populations that cannot switch phenotype show reduced invasiveness compared to generalist cell populations, while implementing different forms of switching significantly alters the structure of migrating cell fronts. This key result suggests that the structure of an invading cell population could be used to infer the underlying mechanisms governing phenotypic switching.

We consider two types of models of regulatory network dynamics: Boolean maps and systems of switching ordinary differential equations. Our goal is to construct all models in each category that are compatible with the directed signed graph that describe the network interactions. This leads to consideration of lattice of monotone Boolean functions (MBF), poset of non-degenerate MBFs, and a lattice of chains in these sets. We describe explicit inductive construction of these posets where the induction is on the number of inputs in MBF.

Our results allow enumeration of potential dynamic behavior of the network for both model types, subject to practical limitation imposed by the size of the lattice of MBFs described by the Dedekind number.

Chronic pain is a major cause of disability and suffering in osteoarthritis (OA) patients. Endogenous specialised pro-resolving molecules (SPMs) curtail pro-inflammatory responses. One of the SPM intermediate oxylipins, 17-hydroxydocasahexaenoic acid (17-HDHA, a metabolite of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA)), is significantly associated with OA pain. The aim of this multidisciplinary work is to develop a mathematical model to describe the contributions of enzymatic pathways (and the genes that encode them) to the metabolism of DHA by monocytes and to the levels of the down-stream metabolites, 17-HDHA and 14-hydroxydocasahexaenoic acid (14-HDHA), motivated by novel clinical data from a study involving 30 participants with OA. The data include measurements of oxylipin levels, mRNA levels, measures of OA severity and self-reported pain scores.

We propose a system of ordinary differential equations to characterise associations between the different datasets, in order to determine the homeostatic concentrations of DHA, 17-HDHA and 14-HDHA, dependent upon the gene expression of the associated metabolic enzymes. Using parameter-fitting methods, local sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the model is shown to fit well qualitatively to experimental data.

The model suggests that up-regulation of some ALOX genes may lead to the down-regulation of 17-HDHA and that dosing with 17-HDHA increases the production of resolvins, which helps to down-regulate the inflammatory response. More generally, we explore the challenges and limitations of modelling real data, in particular individual variability, and also discuss the value of gathering additional experimental data motivated by the modelling insights.

Blood coagulation is a network of biochemical reactions wherein dozens of proteins act collectively to initiate a rapid clotting response. Coagulation reactions are lipid-surface dependent, and this dependence is thought to help localize coagulation to the site of injury and enhance the association between reactants. Current mathematical models of coagulation either do not consider lipid as a variable or do not agree with experiments where lipid concentrations were varied. Since there is no analytic rate law that depends on lipid, only apparent rate constants can be derived from enzyme kinetic experiments. We developed a new mathematical framework for modeling enzymes reactions in the presence of lipid vesicles. Here the concentrations are such that only a fraction of the vesicles harbor bound enzymes and the rest remain empty. We call the lipid vesicles with and without enzyme TF:VIIa${}^{+}$ and TF:VIIa${}^{-}$ lipid, respectively. Since substrate binds to both TF:VIIa${}^{+}$ and TF:VIIa${}^{-}$ lipid, our model shows that excess empty lipid acts as a strong sink for substrate. We used our framework to derive an analytic rate equation and performed constrained optimization to estimate a single, global set of intrinsic rates for the enzyme–substrate pair. Results agree with experiments and reveal a critical lipid concentration where the conversion rate of the substrate is maximized, a phenomenon known as the template effect. Next, we included product inhibition of the enzyme and derived the corresponding rate equations, which enables kinetic studies of more complex reactions. Our combined experimental and mathematical study provides a general framework for uncovering the mechanisms by which lipid mediated reactions impact coagulation processes.