Pub Date : 2025-08-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104153
Dmitriy Muravyev , Neil D. Pearson , Joshua M. Pollet
Several influential studies show that transformations of implied volatilities calculated from options prices predict stock returns. This predictability is puzzling because market participants readily observe options prices. We find that this predictability is consistent with implied volatilities reflecting stock borrow fees that are known to predict stock returns. We derive a formula relating the option-implied volatility spread to the borrow fee. Motivated by this relation, we show that the return predictability from implied volatility spread and skew decreases by at least two-thirds if high-fee stocks are excluded. The patterns for other predictors computed from option implied volatilities are similar.
{"title":"Why does options market information predict stock returns?","authors":"Dmitriy Muravyev , Neil D. Pearson , Joshua M. Pollet","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104153","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104153","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Several influential studies show that transformations of implied volatilities calculated from options prices predict stock returns. This predictability is puzzling because market participants readily observe options prices. We find that this predictability is consistent with implied volatilities reflecting stock borrow fees that are known to predict stock returns. We derive a formula relating the option-implied volatility spread to the borrow fee. Motivated by this relation, we show that the return predictability from implied volatility spread and skew decreases by at least two-thirds if high-fee stocks are excluded. The patterns for other predictors computed from option implied volatilities are similar.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104153"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104117
Harry DeAngelo , Kathleen Kahle , Douglas J. Skinner
Jensen’s (1986) analysis of the agency costs of free cash flow radically transformed our understanding of corporate payout policy. This paper details the main pre-Jensen advances in the payout literature, explains how his analysis profoundly altered the way financial economists view payout policy, and discusses prominent regularities that provide real-world texture for understanding the importance of his insights about payout policy. These regularities include: (i) the dominance (measured as a percent of value or earnings) of the public equity markets by firms in the distribution phase of the corporate lifecycle; (ii) changes since the 1980s in aggregate cash payouts, the profitability of payers, payout rates, and the set of firms that dominate the payout supply; and (iii) the recent politicization of share repurchases.
{"title":"Agency cost of free cash flow, capital allocation, and payouts","authors":"Harry DeAngelo , Kathleen Kahle , Douglas J. Skinner","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Jensen’s (1986) analysis of the agency costs of free cash flow radically transformed our understanding of corporate payout policy. This paper details the main pre-Jensen advances in the payout literature, explains how his analysis profoundly altered the way financial economists view payout policy, and discusses prominent regularities that provide real-world texture for understanding the importance of his insights about payout policy. These regularities include: (i) the dominance (measured as a percent of value or earnings) of the public equity markets by firms in the distribution phase of the corporate lifecycle; (ii) changes since the 1980s in aggregate cash payouts, the profitability of payers, payout rates, and the set of firms that dominate the payout supply; and (iii) the recent politicization of share repurchases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104117"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144899044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-09DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104151
George O. Aragon, Yuxiang Jiang, Juha Joenväärä, Cristian Ioan Tiu
We examine the adoption rates of responsible investment (RI) policies among university endowments. Adoption rates are higher among universities that face stakeholder pressure and are donation-dependent. Policy adoption predicts greater abnormal donations totaling 12 % of endowment assets, especially from “socially conscious” donors and during periods of higher media attention to climate change. Universities also experience greater student applications following adoptions. RI endowments have greater management costs, greater return volatility, and similar overall asset growth (donations plus net-of-cost investment income) compared to non-RI endowments. We conclude that RI policies are an important part of the optimal contract between universities and their stakeholders.
{"title":"Responsible investing: Costs and benefits for university endowment funds","authors":"George O. Aragon, Yuxiang Jiang, Juha Joenväärä, Cristian Ioan Tiu","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104151","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the adoption rates of responsible investment (RI) policies among university endowments. Adoption rates are higher among universities that face stakeholder pressure and are donation-dependent. Policy adoption predicts greater abnormal donations totaling 12 % of endowment assets, especially from “socially conscious” donors and during periods of higher media attention to climate change. Universities also experience greater student applications following adoptions. RI endowments have greater management costs, greater return volatility, and similar overall asset growth (donations plus net-of-cost investment income) compared to non-RI endowments. We conclude that RI policies are an important part of the optimal contract between universities and their stakeholders.","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"94 1","pages":"104151"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144899046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104129
Daniel Green , Boris Vallee
We study whether exit policies by financial institutions have financial and real consequences on the firms they target, using bank coal exit policies as a laboratory. In contrast to theories assuming high capital substitutability, we find large effects of these policies. Bank exit policies negatively affect both the financing and operation of coal assets. Substitution to other sources and providers of capital appears to be limited. Coal power plants owned by firms exposed to exit policies are more likely to retire, translating into lower CO2 emissions. Exit policies have reduced CO2e emissions from energy production by an estimated 0.62 gigaton.
{"title":"Measurement and effects of bank exit policies","authors":"Daniel Green , Boris Vallee","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104129","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104129","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study whether exit policies by financial institutions have financial and real consequences on the firms they target, using bank coal exit policies as a laboratory. In contrast to theories assuming high capital substitutability, we find large effects of these policies. Bank exit policies negatively affect both the financing and operation of coal assets. Substitution to other sources and providers of capital appears to be limited. Coal power plants owned by firms exposed to exit policies are more likely to retire, translating into lower CO2 emissions. Exit policies have reduced CO2e emissions from energy production by an estimated 0.62 gigaton.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104129"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144766620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104147
Daniel Ferreira , Radoslawa Nikolowa
We present a model in which firms compete for workers who value nonpecuniary job attributes, such as purpose, sustainability, political stances, or working conditions. Firms adopt production technologies that enable them to offer jobs with varying levels of these desirable attributes. Firms’ profits are higher when they cater to workers with extreme preferences. In a competitive assignment equilibrium, firms become polarized and not only reflect but also amplify the polarized preferences of the general population. More polarized sectors exhibit higher profits, lower average wages, and a reduced labor share of value added. Sustainable investing amplifies firm polarization.
{"title":"Polarization, purpose and profit","authors":"Daniel Ferreira , Radoslawa Nikolowa","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104147","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present a model in which firms compete for workers who value nonpecuniary job attributes, such as purpose, sustainability, political stances, or working conditions. Firms adopt production technologies that enable them to offer jobs with varying levels of these desirable attributes. Firms’ profits are higher when they cater to workers with extreme preferences. In a competitive assignment equilibrium, firms become polarized and not only reflect but also <em>amplify</em> the polarized preferences of the general population. More polarized sectors exhibit higher profits, lower average wages, and a reduced labor share of value added. Sustainable investing amplifies firm polarization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104147"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144766619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104148
Danqi Hu , Charles M. Jones , Xiaoyan Zhang , Xinran Zhang
Using 2015–2019 intraday short sale data from CBOE, we show that shorting flows near the open, middle, and close all negatively predict future returns, but the shorting flows near the open and middle have stronger predictive power than shorting flows near the close. We relate our findings to three informed trading models with different predictions on the timing of the trades. The long term predictive power of shorting flows near the open and midday is consistent with Kyle’s (1985) model of steady trading; the intraday variation in shorting flows’ predictive power is more consistent with Holden and Subrahmanyam’s (1992) aggressive trading model, in the sense that predictive power of shorting flows is stronger when there is greater urgency to trade at open and when the securities lending market is more competitive; and the liquidity timing hypothesis from Collin-Dufresne and Fos (2016) is also supported by the finding that opening shorting flows increase for firms with better liquidity conditions.
{"title":"When do short sellers trade? Evidence from intraday data and implications for informed trading models","authors":"Danqi Hu , Charles M. Jones , Xiaoyan Zhang , Xinran Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104148","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104148","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using 2015–2019 intraday short sale data from CBOE, we show that shorting flows near the open, middle, and close all negatively predict future returns, but the shorting flows near the open and middle have stronger predictive power than shorting flows near the close. We relate our findings to three informed trading models with different predictions on the timing of the trades. The long term predictive power of shorting flows near the open and midday is consistent with Kyle’s (1985) model of steady trading; the intraday variation in shorting flows’ predictive power is more consistent with Holden and Subrahmanyam’s (1992) aggressive trading model, in the sense that predictive power of shorting flows is stronger when there is greater urgency to trade at open and when the securities lending market is more competitive; and the liquidity timing hypothesis from Collin-Dufresne and Fos (2016) is also supported by the finding that opening shorting flows increase for firms with better liquidity conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104148"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104143
Iván Alfaro , Hoonsuk Park
Using daily banking and credit card data for thousands of households linked to U.S. publicly listed employers, we find novel evidence that firm-specific uncertainty persistently reduces future spending and spurs precautionary savings. A one-standard-deviation rise in option-implied firm volatility—akin to the S&P 500 VIX—predicts a $106 monthly spending drop (8 hours of wages) and a $193 increase in bank balances, reflecting notable cutbacks in typical non-durable goods and services. The mechanism operates through heightened household risks: firm uncertainty expands both income and consumption risk over the next year, with the largest effects among lower and top earners (notably the top 1%). Employers only partly shield earnings, while households only partly self-insulate consumption risk via smoothing channels. Detrimental uncertainty effects on households are stronger than firm stock price declines.
{"title":"Firm uncertainty and households: Spending, savings, and risks","authors":"Iván Alfaro , Hoonsuk Park","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using daily banking and credit card data for thousands of households linked to U.S. publicly listed employers, we find novel evidence that firm-specific uncertainty persistently reduces future spending and spurs precautionary savings. A one-standard-deviation rise in option-implied firm volatility—akin to the S&P 500 VIX—predicts a $106 monthly spending drop (8 hours of wages) and a $193 increase in bank balances, reflecting notable cutbacks in typical non-durable goods and services. The mechanism operates through heightened household risks: firm uncertainty expands both income and consumption risk over the next year, with the largest effects among lower and top earners (notably the top 1%). Employers only partly shield earnings, while households only partly self-insulate consumption risk via smoothing channels. Detrimental uncertainty effects on households are stronger than firm stock price declines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104143"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144724706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104132
Agostino Capponi , Ruizhe Jia , Kanye Ye Wang
The blockchain settlement layer facilitates systematic frontrunning, resulting in inefficient block-space allocation. Private transaction pools can reduce these inefficiencies and enhance welfare. However, full adoption is limited by misaligned incentives between users and validators. Validators are reluctant to forgo rents they earn from frontrunning – referred to as maximal extractable value – leading to a partial adoption equilibrium in which frontrunning persists. Our empirical analysis of Ethereum’s Flashbots private pool supports these findings: validators earn higher revenues, users facing greater frontrunning risk are more likely to use the private pool, and attackers’ cost-to-revenue ratios in private pools converge to one.
{"title":"Maximal extractable value and allocative inefficiencies in public blockchains","authors":"Agostino Capponi , Ruizhe Jia , Kanye Ye Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104132","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The blockchain settlement layer facilitates systematic frontrunning, resulting in inefficient block-space allocation. Private transaction pools can reduce these inefficiencies and enhance welfare. However, full adoption is limited by misaligned incentives between users and validators. Validators are reluctant to forgo rents they earn from frontrunning – referred to as maximal extractable value – leading to a partial adoption equilibrium in which frontrunning persists. Our empirical analysis of Ethereum’s Flashbots private pool supports these findings: validators earn higher revenues, users facing greater frontrunning risk are more likely to use the private pool, and attackers’ cost-to-revenue ratios in private pools converge to one.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104132"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144721158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-28DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104134
Darren Aiello , Asaf Bernstein , Mahyar Kargar , Ryan Lewis , Michael Schwert
We study how state pension windfalls affect property prices near state borders, where theory suggests real estate reflects the value of additional public resources. Windfalls, representing a source of state revenue about half the size of total taxes, provide economically significant and plausibly exogenous variation in fiscal conditions. We find that each dollar of pension asset returns increases border house prices by approximately two dollars, suggesting that governments allocate additional funds towards high-value projects or tax abatement rather than wasting incremental resources. Evidence of larger effects in financially constrained municipalities highlights how fiscal resources amplify welfare effects of economic shocks.
{"title":"The marginal value of public pension wealth: Evidence from border house prices","authors":"Darren Aiello , Asaf Bernstein , Mahyar Kargar , Ryan Lewis , Michael Schwert","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104134","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104134","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how state pension windfalls affect property prices near state borders, where theory suggests real estate reflects the value of additional public resources. Windfalls, representing a source of state revenue about half the size of total taxes, provide economically significant and plausibly exogenous variation in fiscal conditions. We find that each dollar of pension asset returns increases border house prices by approximately two dollars, suggesting that governments allocate additional funds towards high-value projects or tax abatement rather than wasting incremental resources. Evidence of larger effects in financially constrained municipalities highlights how fiscal resources amplify welfare effects of economic shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104134"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144714098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-28DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104140
Aaron Goodman , Indira Puri
We document a new anomaly that we prove standard preference models are unable to capture, regardless of functional form or parametric specification used. Analyzing trading behavior in the binary option market for retail investors, we find that market participants purchase binary options although strictly dominant bull spreads are available at lower prices: 15% of S&P index, 19% of gold, and 25% of silver trades violate no-dominance conditions consistently across three different asset classes. Buyers of dominated binaries lose on average 34% of the contract price by forgoing the dominating product. We prove that neither prospect theory nor ambiguity aversion nor other popular theoretical justifications for retail anomalies such as rational inattention and salience, can capture these results. We also test for, and reject, standard financial explanations including trading costs, liquidity, exchange fixed effects, and noise trading. We show that our results are consistent with retail investors valuing simple, easy-to-understand binary bets. Our work provides a theoretically-grounded empirical impetus for research in behavioral finance which goes beyond historically pervasive utility frameworks.
{"title":"Overvaluing simple bets: Evidence from the options market","authors":"Aaron Goodman , Indira Puri","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document a new anomaly that we prove standard preference models are unable to capture, regardless of functional form or parametric specification used. Analyzing trading behavior in the binary option market for retail investors, we find that market participants purchase binary options although strictly dominant bull spreads are available at lower prices: 15% of S&P index, 19% of gold, and 25% of silver trades violate no-dominance conditions consistently across three different asset classes. Buyers of dominated binaries lose on average 34% of the contract price by forgoing the dominating product. We prove that neither prospect theory nor ambiguity aversion nor other popular theoretical justifications for retail anomalies such as rational inattention and salience, can capture these results. We also test for, and reject, standard financial explanations including trading costs, liquidity, exchange fixed effects, and noise trading. We show that our results are consistent with retail investors valuing simple, easy-to-understand binary bets. Our work provides a theoretically-grounded empirical impetus for research in behavioral finance which goes beyond historically pervasive utility frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104140"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144714097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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