Pub Date : 2025-08-27DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104154
Daniel Andrei , Michael Hasler
We model how investor learning about monetary-policy transmission impacts asset prices. In an asset-pricing model, investors learn from realized inflation surprises how effectively monetary policy steers future inflation. Downward revisions in perceived effectiveness raise expected inflation persistence, increasing return volatility and risk premia. These effects intensify when policy deviates significantly from neutral or monetary-transmission uncertainty is high. We estimate the model using U.S. macro and policy data from 1954 to 2023. The resulting dynamics align with observed patterns in equity returns and volatility. Empirical tests support the model’s core prediction: investor learning turns central-bank credibility into a priced risk factor.
{"title":"Investor learning about monetary-policy transmission and the stock market","authors":"Daniel Andrei , Michael Hasler","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104154","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104154","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We model how investor learning about monetary-policy transmission impacts asset prices. In an asset-pricing model, investors learn from realized inflation surprises how effectively monetary policy steers future inflation. Downward revisions in perceived effectiveness raise expected inflation persistence, increasing return volatility and risk premia. These effects intensify when policy deviates significantly from neutral or monetary-transmission uncertainty is high. We estimate the model using U.S. macro and policy data from 1954 to 2023. The resulting dynamics align with observed patterns in equity returns and volatility. Empirical tests support the model’s core prediction: investor learning turns central-bank credibility into a priced risk factor.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 104154"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104149
Carole Roan Gresenz , Jean M. Mitchell , Belicia Rodriguez , Crystal Wang , R. Scott Turner , Wilbert van der Klaauw
We examine the effect of undiagnosed memory disorders on credit outcomes using individually-matched nationally representative credit reporting and Medicare data. We find effects of early stage disease, years before diagnosis, on a wide range of financial outcomes, including credit card account payment delinquency and amount of delinquent balance, credit utilization among credit card account holders, mortgage delinquency and delinquent balance amount, and credit scores. Effects are pervasive, affecting seniors in single and coupled households, racial/ethnic minorities and non-minorities, and older adults living in areas with higher and lower education levels. Early stage effects are greater among singles and Black individuals.
{"title":"The financial consequences of undiagnosed memory disorders","authors":"Carole Roan Gresenz , Jean M. Mitchell , Belicia Rodriguez , Crystal Wang , R. Scott Turner , Wilbert van der Klaauw","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104149","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104149","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the effect of undiagnosed memory disorders on credit outcomes using individually-matched nationally representative credit reporting and Medicare data. We find effects of early stage disease, years before diagnosis, on a wide range of financial outcomes, including credit card account payment delinquency and amount of delinquent balance, credit utilization among credit card account holders, mortgage delinquency and delinquent balance amount, and credit scores. Effects are pervasive, affecting seniors in single and coupled households, racial/ethnic minorities and non-minorities, and older adults living in areas with higher and lower education levels. Early stage effects are greater among singles and Black individuals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104149"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144866367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104155
Amit Goyal , Adam V. Reed , Esad Smajlbegovic , Amar Soebhag
Short sellers are widely known to be informed, which would typically suggest that they demand liquidity. We obtain comprehensive transaction-level data to decompose daily short volume into liquidity-demanding and liquidity-supplying components. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we show that the most informed short sellers are actually liquidity suppliers, not liquidity demanders. They are particularly informative about future returns on news days and trade on prominent cross-sectional return anomalies. Our analysis suggests that market making and opportunistic risk-bearing are unlikely to explain these findings. Instead, our results align with recent market microstructure theory, pointing to strategic liquidity provision by informed traders.
{"title":"Stealthy shorts: Informed liquidity supply","authors":"Amit Goyal , Adam V. Reed , Esad Smajlbegovic , Amar Soebhag","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104155","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104155","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Short sellers are widely known to be informed, which would typically suggest that they demand liquidity. We obtain comprehensive transaction-level data to decompose daily short volume into liquidity-demanding and liquidity-supplying components. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we show that the most informed short sellers are actually liquidity suppliers, not liquidity demanders. They are particularly informative about future returns on news days and trade on prominent cross-sectional return anomalies. Our analysis suggests that market making and opportunistic risk-bearing are unlikely to explain these findings. Instead, our results align with recent market microstructure theory, pointing to strategic liquidity provision by informed traders.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104155"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144866368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-14DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104139
Thomas Dangl , Michael Halling , Jin Yu , Josef Zechner
This paper presents a framework to study how investors’ social concerns affect technology choices. Consequentialist preferences (disutility from aggregate harm) influence outcomes only if investors coordinate, unless internalized harm is independent of an investor’s mass. Non-consequentialist preferences (disutility from stockholdings) affect outcomes regardless of coordination. Both preferences have stronger impact when risk-sharing consequences of technology supply are small (e.g., highly correlated returns), and their effects cannot be inferred from cost-of-capital differences. When harm is stochastic, polluting firms may appear less risky to social investors. Depending on type and strength of social preferences, this can support or hinder the green transition.
{"title":"Social preferences and corporate investment","authors":"Thomas Dangl , Michael Halling , Jin Yu , Josef Zechner","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104139","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104139","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a framework to study how investors’ social concerns affect technology choices. Consequentialist preferences (disutility from aggregate harm) influence outcomes only if investors coordinate, unless internalized harm is independent of an investor’s mass. Non-consequentialist preferences (disutility from stockholdings) affect outcomes regardless of coordination. Both preferences have stronger impact when risk-sharing consequences of technology supply are small (e.g., highly correlated returns), and their effects cannot be inferred from cost-of-capital differences. When harm is stochastic, polluting firms may appear less risky to social investors. Depending on type and strength of social preferences, this can support or hinder the green transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104139"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144829926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104153
Dmitriy Muravyev , Neil D. Pearson , Joshua M. Pollet
Several influential studies show that transformations of implied volatilities calculated from options prices predict stock returns. This predictability is puzzling because market participants readily observe options prices. We find that this predictability is consistent with implied volatilities reflecting stock borrow fees that are known to predict stock returns. We derive a formula relating the option-implied volatility spread to the borrow fee. Motivated by this relation, we show that the return predictability from implied volatility spread and skew decreases by at least two-thirds if high-fee stocks are excluded. The patterns for other predictors computed from option implied volatilities are similar.
{"title":"Why does options market information predict stock returns?","authors":"Dmitriy Muravyev , Neil D. Pearson , Joshua M. Pollet","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104153","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104153","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Several influential studies show that transformations of implied volatilities calculated from options prices predict stock returns. This predictability is puzzling because market participants readily observe options prices. We find that this predictability is consistent with implied volatilities reflecting stock borrow fees that are known to predict stock returns. We derive a formula relating the option-implied volatility spread to the borrow fee. Motivated by this relation, we show that the return predictability from implied volatility spread and skew decreases by at least two-thirds if high-fee stocks are excluded. The patterns for other predictors computed from option implied volatilities are similar.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104153"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104117
Harry DeAngelo , Kathleen Kahle , Douglas J. Skinner
Jensen’s (1986) analysis of the agency costs of free cash flow radically transformed our understanding of corporate payout policy. This paper details the main pre-Jensen advances in the payout literature, explains how his analysis profoundly altered the way financial economists view payout policy, and discusses prominent regularities that provide real-world texture for understanding the importance of his insights about payout policy. These regularities include: (i) the dominance (measured as a percent of value or earnings) of the public equity markets by firms in the distribution phase of the corporate lifecycle; (ii) changes since the 1980s in aggregate cash payouts, the profitability of payers, payout rates, and the set of firms that dominate the payout supply; and (iii) the recent politicization of share repurchases.
{"title":"Agency cost of free cash flow, capital allocation, and payouts","authors":"Harry DeAngelo , Kathleen Kahle , Douglas J. Skinner","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Jensen’s (1986) analysis of the agency costs of free cash flow radically transformed our understanding of corporate payout policy. This paper details the main pre-Jensen advances in the payout literature, explains how his analysis profoundly altered the way financial economists view payout policy, and discusses prominent regularities that provide real-world texture for understanding the importance of his insights about payout policy. These regularities include: (i) the dominance (measured as a percent of value or earnings) of the public equity markets by firms in the distribution phase of the corporate lifecycle; (ii) changes since the 1980s in aggregate cash payouts, the profitability of payers, payout rates, and the set of firms that dominate the payout supply; and (iii) the recent politicization of share repurchases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104117"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144899044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-09DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104151
George O. Aragon, Yuxiang Jiang, Juha Joenväärä, Cristian Ioan Tiu
We examine the adoption rates of responsible investment (RI) policies among university endowments. Adoption rates are higher among universities that face stakeholder pressure and are donation-dependent. Policy adoption predicts greater abnormal donations totaling 12 % of endowment assets, especially from “socially conscious” donors and during periods of higher media attention to climate change. Universities also experience greater student applications following adoptions. RI endowments have greater management costs, greater return volatility, and similar overall asset growth (donations plus net-of-cost investment income) compared to non-RI endowments. We conclude that RI policies are an important part of the optimal contract between universities and their stakeholders.
{"title":"Responsible investing: Costs and benefits for university endowment funds","authors":"George O. Aragon, Yuxiang Jiang, Juha Joenväärä, Cristian Ioan Tiu","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104151","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the adoption rates of responsible investment (RI) policies among university endowments. Adoption rates are higher among universities that face stakeholder pressure and are donation-dependent. Policy adoption predicts greater abnormal donations totaling 12 % of endowment assets, especially from “socially conscious” donors and during periods of higher media attention to climate change. Universities also experience greater student applications following adoptions. RI endowments have greater management costs, greater return volatility, and similar overall asset growth (donations plus net-of-cost investment income) compared to non-RI endowments. We conclude that RI policies are an important part of the optimal contract between universities and their stakeholders.","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"94 1","pages":"104151"},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144899046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104129
Daniel Green , Boris Vallee
We study whether exit policies by financial institutions have financial and real consequences on the firms they target, using bank coal exit policies as a laboratory. In contrast to theories assuming high capital substitutability, we find large effects of these policies. Bank exit policies negatively affect both the financing and operation of coal assets. Substitution to other sources and providers of capital appears to be limited. Coal power plants owned by firms exposed to exit policies are more likely to retire, translating into lower CO2 emissions. Exit policies have reduced CO2e emissions from energy production by an estimated 0.62 gigaton.
{"title":"Measurement and effects of bank exit policies","authors":"Daniel Green , Boris Vallee","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104129","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104129","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study whether exit policies by financial institutions have financial and real consequences on the firms they target, using bank coal exit policies as a laboratory. In contrast to theories assuming high capital substitutability, we find large effects of these policies. Bank exit policies negatively affect both the financing and operation of coal assets. Substitution to other sources and providers of capital appears to be limited. Coal power plants owned by firms exposed to exit policies are more likely to retire, translating into lower CO2 emissions. Exit policies have reduced CO2e emissions from energy production by an estimated 0.62 gigaton.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104129"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144766620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104147
Daniel Ferreira , Radoslawa Nikolowa
We present a model in which firms compete for workers who value nonpecuniary job attributes, such as purpose, sustainability, political stances, or working conditions. Firms adopt production technologies that enable them to offer jobs with varying levels of these desirable attributes. Firms’ profits are higher when they cater to workers with extreme preferences. In a competitive assignment equilibrium, firms become polarized and not only reflect but also amplify the polarized preferences of the general population. More polarized sectors exhibit higher profits, lower average wages, and a reduced labor share of value added. Sustainable investing amplifies firm polarization.
{"title":"Polarization, purpose and profit","authors":"Daniel Ferreira , Radoslawa Nikolowa","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104147","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present a model in which firms compete for workers who value nonpecuniary job attributes, such as purpose, sustainability, political stances, or working conditions. Firms adopt production technologies that enable them to offer jobs with varying levels of these desirable attributes. Firms’ profits are higher when they cater to workers with extreme preferences. In a competitive assignment equilibrium, firms become polarized and not only reflect but also <em>amplify</em> the polarized preferences of the general population. More polarized sectors exhibit higher profits, lower average wages, and a reduced labor share of value added. Sustainable investing amplifies firm polarization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104147"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144766619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104148
Danqi Hu , Charles M. Jones , Xiaoyan Zhang , Xinran Zhang
Using 2015–2019 intraday short sale data from CBOE, we show that shorting flows near the open, middle, and close all negatively predict future returns, but the shorting flows near the open and middle have stronger predictive power than shorting flows near the close. We relate our findings to three informed trading models with different predictions on the timing of the trades. The long term predictive power of shorting flows near the open and midday is consistent with Kyle’s (1985) model of steady trading; the intraday variation in shorting flows’ predictive power is more consistent with Holden and Subrahmanyam’s (1992) aggressive trading model, in the sense that predictive power of shorting flows is stronger when there is greater urgency to trade at open and when the securities lending market is more competitive; and the liquidity timing hypothesis from Collin-Dufresne and Fos (2016) is also supported by the finding that opening shorting flows increase for firms with better liquidity conditions.
{"title":"When do short sellers trade? Evidence from intraday data and implications for informed trading models","authors":"Danqi Hu , Charles M. Jones , Xiaoyan Zhang , Xinran Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104148","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104148","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using 2015–2019 intraday short sale data from CBOE, we show that shorting flows near the open, middle, and close all negatively predict future returns, but the shorting flows near the open and middle have stronger predictive power than shorting flows near the close. We relate our findings to three informed trading models with different predictions on the timing of the trades. The long term predictive power of shorting flows near the open and midday is consistent with Kyle’s (1985) model of steady trading; the intraday variation in shorting flows’ predictive power is more consistent with Holden and Subrahmanyam’s (1992) aggressive trading model, in the sense that predictive power of shorting flows is stronger when there is greater urgency to trade at open and when the securities lending market is more competitive; and the liquidity timing hypothesis from Collin-Dufresne and Fos (2016) is also supported by the finding that opening shorting flows increase for firms with better liquidity conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51346,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 104148"},"PeriodicalIF":10.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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