Public Opinion Quarterly最新文献

英文中文

Are Nonprobability Surveys Fit for Purpose? 非概率调查是否符合目的?

1区社会学 Q1 COMMUNICATION

Public Opinion Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad037

Jennifer Jerit, Jason Barabas

Abstract Social scientists employ survey methods to explore the contours of human behavior. Today there are more opportunities to collect survey data than at any time in recent history. Yet sample quality varies dramatically due in part to the availability of nonprobability samples (NPSs) from commercial survey organizations. While these kinds of surveys have advantages in terms of cost and accessibility, the proprietary nature of the data can be problematic. In this synthesis, we describe situations in which researchers typically employ NPSs and consider whether these data are fit for purpose. Next, we discuss use cases that are not widespread but may be appropriate for these data. We conclude that potential utility of NPSs will remain out of reach unless scholars confront the tension between the operation of online survey organizations and the goals of transparent research.

社会科学家采用调查方法来探索人类行为的轮廓。今天收集调查数据的机会比近代史上任何时候都多。然而，由于商业调查机构提供的非概率样本(nps)的可用性，样本质量变化很大。虽然这些类型的调查在成本和可访问性方面具有优势，但数据的专有性质可能存在问题。在这个综合中，我们描述了研究人员通常使用nps的情况，并考虑这些数据是否适合目的。接下来，我们将讨论一些并不广泛但可能适合这些数据的用例。我们的结论是，除非学者们面对在线调查组织的运作与透明研究目标之间的紧张关系，否则nps的潜在效用将仍然遥不可及。

引用次数: 0

All the President’s Lies: Repeated False Claims and Public Opinion 总统的所有谎言:重复的虚假声明和公众舆论

1区社会学 Q1 COMMUNICATION

Public Opinion Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad032

Raunak M Pillai, Eunji Kim, Lisa K Fazio

Abstract A hallmark of the Trump presidency was a stream of false statements, many of which were repeated dozens or even hundreds of times. But whether (and to what extent) this repetition translates into public misperceptions remains an open question. We address this question by leveraging the most comprehensive data on Trump’s repetition of misleading claims during his presidency. In a national survey asking Americans to evaluate the truth of claims from this database, we find a clear partisan asymmetry. An increase in the number of repetitions of a falsehood corresponded with increased belief among Republicans but decreased belief among Democrats. We also find an important moderating role of media consumption. The effects of repetition were larger when people consumed more right-leaning cable news and when falsehoods were mostly repeated on Twitter. We discuss implications of these findings for misinformation research.

特朗普总统任期的一个特点是一连串的虚假陈述，其中许多被重复了几十次甚至数百次。但这种重复是否(以及在多大程度上)会转化为公众的误解，仍是一个悬而未决的问题。我们利用特朗普在总统任期内重复误导性言论的最全面数据来解决这个问题。在一项要求美国人评估该数据库中说法的真实性的全国性调查中，我们发现了明显的党派不对称。一个谎言重复次数的增加与共和党人的信心增加相对应，而与民主党人的信心下降相对应。我们也发现了媒体消费的重要调节作用。当人们收看更多右倾有线新闻，以及在推特上大多重复谎言时，重复的影响更大。我们将讨论这些发现对错误信息研究的影响。

引用次数: 0

Public Support for Democracy in the United States Has Declined Generationally 美国民众对民主的支持在几代人之间下降

1区社会学 Q1 COMMUNICATION

Public Opinion Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad039

Christopher Claassen, Pedro C Magalhães

Abstract Support for democracy in the United States, once thought to be solid, has now been shown to be somewhat shaky. One of the most concerning aspects of this declining attachment to democracy is a marked age gap, with younger Americans less supportive of democracy than their older compatriots. Using age-period-cohort analysis of 12 national surveys collected between 1995 and 2019, we show that this age gap is largely a function of a long-term generational decline in support for democracy, with little evidence of an independent life-cycle effect apparent. The combination of generational decline without a positive and counterbalancing life-cycle effect offers a sober prognosis of how support for democracy in the United States might look in the future.

美国对民主的支持一度被认为是稳固的，但现在已被证明有些不稳固。对民主的依恋程度下降最令人担忧的一个方面是明显的年龄差距，年轻的美国人不像年长的同胞那样支持民主。通过对1995年至2019年期间收集的12项全国调查进行年龄-时期队列分析，我们发现，这种年龄差距在很大程度上是对民主支持的长期代际下降的函数，几乎没有证据表明存在明显的独立生命周期影响。在没有积极和平衡的生命周期效应的情况下，代际衰退的结合为未来美国对民主的支持提供了一个清醒的预测。

引用次数: 1

Issues, Groups, or Idiots? Comparing Theories of Partisan Stereotypes 问题，群体，还是白痴?党派刻板印象理论比较

1区社会学 Q1 COMMUNICATION

Public Opinion Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad038

C Daniel Myers

Abstract When individuals picture the two parties, what do they think of? Given the dominant understanding of partisanship as a social identity, understanding the content of these mental images—individuals’ stereotypes of the two parties—is essential, as stereotypes play an important role in how identity affects attitudes and behaviors, perceptions of others, and inter-group relations. The existing literature offers three answers to this question: one that claims that people picture the two parties in terms of their constituent social groups, a second that claims that people picture the two parties in terms of policy positions, and a third that claims that people view the two parties in terms of individual traits they associate with partisans. While not mutually exclusive, these theories have different implications for the effects of partisanship and the roots of partisan animosity. This paper adjudicates between these theories by employing a new method that measures stereotype content at the collective and individual level using a conjoint experiment. An important advantage of the conjoint measure is that it allows for the direct comparison of the importance of different attributes, and different kinds of attributes, to the stereotype. Using a pre-registered 2,909-person survey, I evaluate the relative importance of issues, groups, and traits to stereotypes of partisans. I find strong evidence that issue positions and ideological labels are the central elements of partisan stereotypes. I also find that individuals who hold issue- or ideology-based stereotypes are more affectively polarized than those whose stereotypes are rooted in groups or traits.

当人们想象双方时，他们想到的是什么?鉴于对党派偏见作为一种社会认同的主流理解，理解这些心理意象的内容——个人对两党的刻板印象——是必不可少的，因为刻板印象在身份如何影响态度和行为、对他人的看法和群体间关系方面发挥着重要作用。现有的文献为这个问题提供了三个答案:一个声称人们根据他们组成的社会群体来描绘两个政党，第二个声称人们根据政策立场来描绘两个政党，第三个声称人们根据他们与党派有关的个人特征来看待两个政党。虽然并非相互排斥，但这些理论对党派关系的影响和党派仇恨的根源有着不同的含义。本文采用一种新的方法，通过联合实验在集体和个人层面测量刻板印象内容，对这些理论进行了评判。联合度量的一个重要优点是，它允许直接比较不同属性的重要性，以及不同类型的属性对原型的重要性。通过预先登记的2909人调查，我评估了问题、群体和特征对党派刻板印象的相对重要性。我发现强有力的证据表明，问题立场和意识形态标签是党派刻板印象的核心要素。我还发现，持有基于问题或意识形态的刻板印象的个人比那些根植于群体或特征的刻板印象的人更容易在情感上两极分化。

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引用次数: 0

Electoral Proximity and Issue-Specific Responsiveness 选举临近性和针对具体问题的响应性

1区社会学 Q1 COMMUNICATION

Public Opinion Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad031

Michael Pomirchy

Abstract Do elections increase responsiveness of legislators to their constituents? Previous studies that examine the effect of electoral proximity have been unable to hold the roll-call agenda constant and control for differences in unobserved covariates between legislators. This paper utilizes a natural experiment in four state legislatures—Arkansas, Illinois, Florida, and Texas—where term length was randomly assigned. This design compares the responsiveness to constituency opinion of those randomly assigned to a two-year term to those assigned a four-year term on different issue areas, like the economy, environment, and crime. I find no evidence for an electoral proximity effect on responsiveness. In addition, in the Illinois State Senate, the causal effect of electoral proximity on responsiveness is measured on several individual roll-call votes, including the legalization of medical marijuana and gay marriage.

选举是否增加了立法者对选民的回应?以前的研究考察了选举邻近性的影响，无法保持唱名议程不变，也无法控制立法者之间未观察到的协变量的差异。本文在阿肯色州、伊利诺伊州、佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州四个州的立法机构进行了自然实验，其中任期长度是随机分配的。这个设计比较了在不同的问题领域，如经济、环境和犯罪，被随机分配为两年任期的人和被分配为四年任期的人对选民意见的反应。我没有发现选举临近对反应性有影响的证据。此外，在伊利诺伊州参议院，选举临近对反应的因果效应是通过几个单独的唱名投票来衡量的，包括医用大麻合法化和同性恋婚姻。

引用次数: 0

Othering in Everyday Life: Anti-Chinese Bias in the COVID-19 Pandemic 日常生活中的他人:新冠疫情中的反华偏见

1区社会学 Q1 COMMUNICATION

Public Opinion Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-09-10 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad035

Eunji Kim, Cindy Kam

Abstract Societal upheavals often ignite bias against “the other.” The early political rhetoric around the COVID-19 pandemic keenly engaged this othering process, even from its early nomenclature as the “Wuhan” and “China” virus. Although media accounts of xenophobic violence against Asian Americans abound, little behavioral evidence exists that identifies the prevalence and scope of anti-Chinese bias during the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine whether and to what extent traces of such othering systematically emerge in Americans’ everyday behaviors. Specifically, we analyze a novel dataset focused on Yelp reviews for Chinese and American restaurants in eight large metropolitan areas. Using difference-in-differences estimation, we find that Chinese restaurants received significantly lower ratings compared with American restaurants shortly after the start of the pandemic. The effect is localized to Chinese restaurants, rather than to all Asian restaurants. Our results highlight the emergence of anti-Chinese prejudice in an ostensibly apolitical setting.

社会动荡常常引发对“他者”的偏见。围绕COVID-19大流行的早期政治言论敏锐地参与了这一过程，甚至从其早期命名为“武汉”和“中国”病毒开始。尽管媒体对针对亚裔美国人的仇外暴力的报道比比皆是，但几乎没有行为证据能证明新冠肺炎大流行期间反华偏见的普遍性和范围。我们研究美国人的日常行为中是否系统地出现了这样的痕迹，以及在多大程度上出现了这样的痕迹。具体来说，我们分析了一个新颖的数据集，该数据集集中在八个大城市地区的中国和美国餐馆的Yelp评论上。使用差异中差异估计，我们发现在疫情开始后不久，中餐馆的评分明显低于美国餐馆。这种影响仅限于中国餐馆，而不是所有亚洲餐馆。我们的研究结果突出了反华偏见在表面上与政治无关的环境中的出现。

引用次数: 0

AAPOR Award for Exceptionally Distinguished Achievement 美国亚太学会杰出成就奖

IF 3.4 1区社会学 Q1 COMMUNICATION

Public Opinion Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad043

Timothy P Johnson

引用次数: 0

Social Media Effects on Public Trust in the European Union. 社交媒体对欧盟公众信任的影响。

IF 3.4 1区社会学 Q1 COMMUNICATION

Public Opinion Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-08-03 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad029

Osman Sabri Kiratli

This paper scrutinizes the effect of social media use on institutional trust in the European Union (EU) among European citizens. Fixed-effects regression models on data from the Eurobarometer survey conducted in 2019, the year of the most recent European Parliament (EP) elections, demonstrate that higher social media use is associated with lower trust in the EU. More importantly, social media usage habits exert particularly detrimental effects in regions with wider and faster internet connections. In such high-information environments, those who more frequently use online social networks, tend to trust those networks, and receive information on EU affairs from these networks have less faith in the EU compared to those in regions with lower-quality internet access. In contrast, in regions with lower broadband access, receiving EU information from social media fosters political trust.

本文考察了社交媒体的使用对欧盟(EU)中欧洲公民机构信任的影响。根据欧洲晴雨表(Eurobarometer)于2019年(最近一次欧洲议会选举的一年)进行的调查数据的固定效应回归模型，社交媒体的使用率较高与对欧盟的信任度较低有关。更重要的是，社交媒体的使用习惯在互联网连接更广泛、更快的地区产生了特别有害的影响。在这种高信息环境中，那些更频繁使用在线社交网络的人倾向于信任这些网络，并从这些网络中接收欧盟事务信息，与那些互联网接入质量较低地区的人相比，他们对欧盟的信心更低。相比之下，在宽带接入较低的地区，从社交媒体上接收欧盟信息有助于建立政治信任。

引用次数: 0

Factors Associated with Interviewers' Evaluations of Respondents' Performance in Telephone Interviews: Behavior, Response Quality Indicators, and Characteristics of Respondents and Interviewers. 访问员对受访者在电话访问中的表现作出评价的相关因素：行为、回答质量指标以及受访者和访谈者的特征。

IF 2.9 1区社会学 Q1 COMMUNICATION

Public Opinion Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-07-20 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad028

Dana Garbarski, Jennifer Dykema, Nora Cate Schaeffer, Cameron P Jones, Tiffany S Neman, Dorothy Farrar Edwards

Interviewers' postinterview evaluations of respondents' performance (IEPs) are paradata, used to describe the quality of the data obtained from respondents. IEPs are driven by a combination of factors, including respondents' and interviewers' sociodemographic characteristics and what actually transpires during the interview. However, relatively few studies examine how IEPs are associated with features of the response process, including facets of the interviewer-respondent interaction and patterns of responding that index data quality. We examine whether features of the response process-various respondents' behaviors and response quality indicators-are associated with IEPs in a survey with a diverse set of respondents focused on barriers and facilitators to participating in medical research. We also examine whether there are differences in IEPs across respondents' and interviewers' sociodemographic characteristics. Our results show that both respondents' behaviors and response quality indicators predict IEPs, indicating that IEPs reflect what transpires in the interview. In addition, interviewers appear to approach the task of evaluating respondents with differing frameworks, as evidenced by the variation in IEPs attributable to interviewers and associations between IEPs and interviewers' gender. Further, IEPs were associated with respondents' education and ethnoracial identity, net of respondents' behaviors, response quality indicators, and sociodemographic characteristics of respondents and interviewers. Future research should continue to build on studies that examine the correlates of IEPs to better inform whether, when, and how to use IEPs as paradata about the quality of the data obtained.

访谈者在访谈后对受访者表现的评价（IEPs）是一种范式，用于描述从受访者那里获得的数据的质量。IEP 受多种因素的影响，包括受访者和访谈者的社会人口特征以及访谈过程中的实际情况。然而，相对较少的研究探讨了 IEP 与回答过程的特征之间的关联，包括采访者与受访者互动的各个方面以及反映数据质量的回答模式。在一项针对不同受访者的调查中，我们研究了回答过程的特征--受访者的各种行为和回答质量指标--是否与 IEP 相关，调查的重点是参与医学研究的障碍和促进因素。我们还研究了不同受访者和访谈者的社会人口特征是否会导致 IEPs 存在差异。我们的结果表明，受访者的行为和回答质量指标都能预测 IEP，这表明 IEP 反映了访谈中发生的事情。此外，访谈者似乎以不同的框架来完成评估受访者的任务，这一点可以从访谈者的 IEPs 差异以及 IEPs 与访谈者性别之间的关联中得到证明。此外，IEPs 还与受访者的教育程度和种族身份、受访者的净行为、回答质量指标以及受访者和采访者的社会人口特征有关。未来的研究应继续以考察 IEP 相关性的研究为基础，以便更好地了解是否、何时以及如何使用 IEP 作为所获数据质量的范式。

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引用次数: 0

Disagreement Does Not Always Mean Division: Evidence from Five Decades of American Public Opinion 分歧并不总是意味着分裂：来自美国舆论五十年的证据

IF 3.4 1区社会学 Q1 COMMUNICATION

Public Opinion Quarterly

Pub Date : 2023-06-12 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad020

Stuart Perrett

Are those things on which Americans most disagree the same things that divide liberals and conservatives or Democrats and Republicans? How has this changed over time? To answer these questions, I use 350 subjective items from five decades of the General Social Survey. Estimating disagreement with ordinal dispersion and using a novel measure of sorting by party and ideological identification, I find an increasing positive association between the two phenomena. In the 1970s, the likelihood that opinion on contentious items divided partisans was low. Since then, this probability has increased. Disagreement has been more consistently associated with higher levels of ideological sorting, though this relationship has also strengthened since the 1980s. I then ask which items and substantive domains have propelled the politicization of disagreement. I decompose the estimated coefficients between disagreement and sorting by item to quantify their contribution in each decade. I find that opinions from two domains play a large role throughout the period: public spending, and sexuality and abortion. Nevertheless, there is a great deal of heterogeneity within domains and over time. Though disagreement between Americans has increasingly sorted, a relatively small number of items drive this relationship in any one decade. Even among voters, a good proportion of disagreement remains unrelated to ideological or partisan divisions.

美国人最不同意的事情是自由派和保守派还是民主党和共和党的分歧吗？随着时间的推移，这种情况发生了怎样的变化？为了回答这些问题，我使用了50年来社会调查的350个主观项目。用有序分散估计分歧，并使用一种新的按党派和意识形态认同分类的方法，我发现这两种现象之间的正相关关系越来越大。在20世纪70年代，党派人士对有争议的项目产生分歧的可能性很低。从那时起，这种可能性增加了。分歧一直与更高层次的意识形态分类联系在一起，尽管这种关系自20世纪80年代以来也得到了加强。然后我要问，哪些项目和实质性领域推动了分歧的政治化。我按项目分解分歧和排序之间的估计系数，以量化它们在每十年中的贡献。我发现，在这一时期，来自两个领域的意见发挥了重要作用：公共支出、性行为和堕胎。然而，随着时间的推移，领域内存在大量的异质性。尽管美国人之间的分歧越来越明显，但在任何一个十年里，推动这种关系的因素都相对较少。即使在选民中，也有很大一部分分歧与意识形态或党派分歧无关。

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