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Cohesion Among Whom? Stayees, Displaced, and Returnees in Conflict Contexts 谁的凝聚力?冲突背景下的留守者、流离失所者和回归者
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241254585
Sarah Langlotz, Paul Michel, Philip Verwimp, Patricia Justino, Tilman Brück
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引用次数: 0
The Legacies of Armed Conflict: Insights From Stayees and Returning Forced Migrants 武装冲突的遗留问题:被滞留者和回归的被迫移民的见解
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241253529
Isabel Ruiz, Carlos Vargas-Silva
How does conflict, displacement, and return shape trust, reconciliation, and community engagement? And what is the relative impact of exposure to violence on these indicators? In this paper we explore these questions by focusing on the legacies of armed conflict and the differences between those who stayed in their communities of origin during the conflict (stayees) and those who were displaced internally and internationally and who returned home over time (returnees). The results, which rely on analysis of data we collected in Burundi, suggest that internal returnees have significantly lower levels of trust, reconciliation, and community engagement than stayees, whereas the differences between international returnees and stayees are mostly statistically insignificant. Greater exposure to violence has a more negative effect on reconciliation and community engagement for returnees compared to stayees, while the effects on trust are mixed.
冲突、流离失所和回归如何影响信任、和解和社区参与?暴力对这些指标的相对影响是什么?在本文中,我们探讨了这些问题,重点是武装冲突的遗留问题,以及冲突期间留在原籍社区的人(留守者)与在国内和国际上流离失所并随着时间推移返回家园的人(回返者)之间的差异。我们对在布隆迪收集的数据进行了分析,结果表明,境内回返者的信任、和解和社区参与程度明显低于滞留者,而国际回返者与滞留者之间的差异在统计上大多不显著。与滞留者相比,更多的暴力事件对回归者的和解与社区参与产生了更消极的影响,而对信任的影响则好坏参半。
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引用次数: 0
Land Reform Versus Repression in Counterinsurgency: Evidence From El Salvador 反叛乱中的土地改革与镇压:萨尔瓦多的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-05-07 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241247539
T. David Mason, Jesse Hamner, Amalia Pulido, Mustafa Kirisci, Frank M. Howell
Land reform has been employed as a component of counterinsurgency strategies to inoculate peasants against rebel appeals by giving peasants their own land. However, the remedial effects of land reform can be undermined by right wing violence and rebel violence intended to subvert land reform implementation. We used municipio level data on land reform and election results from El Salvador to test propositions on the competing effects of land reform and political violence - right wing and rebel - on the distribution of popular support between the regime versus the rebels versus anti-reform parties in the regime. We find consistent evidence across three elections that “land to the tiller” forms of agrarian reform do increase support for the regime while right wing violence does erode support for reformist parties.
土地改革被用作反叛乱战略的一个组成部分,通过让农民拥有自己的土地,使他们免受叛乱分子的侵扰。然而,土地改革的补救效果可能会被旨在破坏土地改革实施的右翼暴力和叛乱暴力破坏。我们利用萨尔瓦多市一级的土地改革数据和选举结果,检验了关于土地改革和政治暴力(右翼和叛乱)对政权、叛乱分子和政权内反改革党派之间民众支持分布的竞争影响的命题。我们在三次选举中发现了一致的证据,即 "耕者有其田 "形式的土地改革确实增加了对政权的支持,而右翼暴力确实削弱了对改革派政党的支持。
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引用次数: 0
A Threat to Cohesion: Intragroup Affective Polarization in the Context of Intractable Intergroup Conflict 对凝聚力的威胁:棘手的群际冲突背景下的群内情感极化
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241247033
Tal Orian Harel, Nimrod Nir, Daan Vandermeulen, Ifat Maoz, Eran Halperin
Growing affective polarization, or animosity between competing ideological groups, threatens to tear apart democratic societies worldwide. In nations that are facing external conflicts, the threat arising from these conflicts may boost internal cohesion and potentially reduce the internal threat of fragmentation. However, in the current study, we analyze survey datasets from two societies embedded in intractable conflicts, South Korea ( N = 897) and Israel ( N = 504), and demonstrate that gaps in the perception of the external threat between competing ideological groups are related to higher levels of affective polarization within these societies. We also find support for a mechanism that explains this trend: an internal threat from the ideological outgroup. We discuss the implications of our findings for the study of conflicts' impact on intragroup processes, specifically affective polarization, and for the understanding of how such processes might perpetuate the conflict itself.
日益加剧的情感两极分化,或相互竞争的意识形态群体之间的敌意,有可能使全世界的民主社会四分五裂。在面临外部冲突的国家,这些冲突带来的威胁可能会增强内部凝聚力,并有可能减少内部分裂的威胁。然而,在本研究中,我们分析了韩国(N = 897)和以色列(N = 504)这两个深陷棘手冲突的社会的调查数据集,结果表明,相互竞争的意识形态团体之间对外部威胁的认知差距与这些社会内部较高程度的情感极化有关。我们还发现了解释这一趋势的机制:来自意识形态外群体的内部威胁。我们讨论了我们的发现对研究冲突对群体内部过程(特别是情感极化)的影响以及对理解这种过程如何可能使冲突本身持续下去的意义。
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引用次数: 0
Traditional Authorities, Norm Collisions, and Communal Conflict 传统权威、规范碰撞和族群冲突
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241237438
Clara Neupert-Wentz
I examine the effect of the policing capacity of traditional authorities (TAs) on communal conflict. TAs of ethnic groups use distinct customary laws and dispute-resolution mechanisms. Their coexistence with national norms and those of other TAs results in parallel legal systems. I argue that this generates uncertainties about norms and vertical and horizontal jurisdictional conflict, which increases the risk of communal conflict. However, this effect can be dampened by state-level rules on norm collisions, which lead to a system of co-production and less violence. To investigate these claims, I use global georeferenced expert survey data on customary policing of TAs and data measuring their constitutional regulation. I show that customary policing can have an adverse effect on communal peace. More subgroups of the larger ethnic group with policing institutions increase the risk of conflict. State-level regulation moderates these relationships. Additional evidence suggests that policing increases communal conflict through vertical jurisdictional conflict but otherwise achieves its intended purpose of providing security.
我研究了传统当局(TAs)的警务能力对社区冲突的影响。少数民族的传统当局使用不同的习惯法和争端解决机制。他们与国家规范和其他传统当局的规范共存,形成了平行的法律体系。我认为,这会产生规范的不确定性以及纵向和横向的司法冲突,从而增加族群冲突的风险。然而,国家层面的规范碰撞规则可以抑制这种影响,从而形成一个共同生产和较少暴力的体系。为了研究这些说法,我使用了全球地理参照的专家调查数据,这些数据涉及 TAs 的习俗警务,以及衡量其宪法监管的数据。我的研究表明,按习俗维持治安会对社区和平产生不利影响。大族群中拥有治安机构的子族群越多,冲突的风险就越大。国家层面的监管调节了这些关系。其他证据表明,维持治安会通过纵向管辖冲突增加社区冲突,但在其他方面却能实现其提供安全的预期目的。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring Arms: Introducing the Global Military Spending Dataset 衡量武器:介绍全球军事支出数据集
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-02-19 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241232964
Miriam Barnum, Christopher J. Fariss, Jonathan N. Markowitz, Gaea Morales
Military spending data measure key international relations concepts such as balancing, arms races, the distribution of power, and the severity of military burdens. Unfortunately, missing values and measurement error threaten the validity of existing findings. Addressing this challenge, we introduce the Global Military Spending Dataset (GMSD). GMSD collates new and existing expenditure variables from a comprehensive collection of sources, expands data coverage, and employs a latent variable model to estimate missing values and quantify measurement error. We validate the data and present new findings. First, correlations between economic surplus and military spending are currently higher than at any point in the last two-hundred years. Second, updating DiGiuseppe and Poast’s (2018) analysis, we find larger substantive effects. Specifically, we find that the (negative) effect of a democratic ally on military spending is three times larger, and the (positive) effect of an increase in GDP is five times larger than previously estimated.
军费开支数据可衡量关键的国际关系概念,如平衡、军备竞赛、权力分配和军事负担的严重程度。遗憾的是,缺失值和测量误差威胁着现有研究结果的有效性。为了应对这一挑战,我们推出了全球军事支出数据集(GMSD)。全球军事支出数据集从一个全面的来源收集整理了新的和现有的支出变量,扩大了数据覆盖范围,并采用潜变量模型来估计缺失值和量化测量误差。我们对数据进行了验证,并提出了新的发现。首先,目前经济盈余与军费开支之间的相关性高于过去两百年中的任何时期。其次,在更新 DiGiuseppe 和 Poast(2018 年)的分析后,我们发现了更大的实质性影响。具体来说,我们发现民主盟友对军费开支的(负面)影响是之前估计的三倍,而国内生产总值增加的(正面)影响是之前估计的五倍。
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引用次数: 0
Civil-Military Relations and Domestic Terrorism 军民关系与国内恐怖主义
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-12-25 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231224022
G. Kiyani, Jeffrey Pickering, Mohsin Raza, Clayton Webb
Civil-military relations and terrorism are both extensively studied subjects. Their relationship has, however, yet to be examined. We maintain that public conflict between the civilian and the military leadership in a country and declining civil control over the armed forces may often precipitate a rise in domestic terror events. Civil-military conflict and reduced civilian control can lead to agency slack by the armed forces and ineffective counterterror policies. These phenomena are also associated with policies that exclude groups in society and generate grievances, leading some to turn to terror. In zero inflated negative binomial analyses of domestic terror events and two distinct indicators of civil-military tension, we find support for our contention. Terror incidents increase both when civil-military conflict rises and when civilian control decreases. Our results add to understanding of both the domestic consequences of civil-military tension and the types of influences that impact domestic terror.
军民关系和恐怖主义都是被广泛研究的课题。然而,它们之间的关系还有待研究。我们认为,一个国家军民领导层之间的公开冲突,以及文官对军队控制力的下降,往往会导致国内恐怖事件的增加。军民冲突和文官控制力下降会导致武装部队机构松懈和反恐政策无效。这些现象也与排斥社会群体的政策有关,这些政策会产生不满情绪,导致一些人转向恐怖活动。在对国内恐怖事件和军民关系紧张的两个不同指标进行的零膨胀负二项分析中,我们发现我们的论点得到了支持。当军民冲突加剧和平民控制力下降时,恐怖事件都会增加。我们的研究结果加深了人们对军民关系紧张的国内后果以及影响国内恐怖事件的影响因素类型的理解。
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引用次数: 0
How Loyalty Trials Shape Allegiance to Political Order 忠诚审判如何塑造对政治秩序的忠诚
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-12-21 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231222004
Mirko Reul, Ravi Bhavnani
“Loyalty trials” are common to a range of conflict settings, with consequences that range from harassment to imprisonment, torture, or death. Yet, they have received little if any attention as a general phenomenon in studies of state repression, civil war, or rebel governance, which focus on particular behaviors that authorities use to put people on trial, such as dissent, defection, and resistance. Using a computational model and data on the German Democratic Republic and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, we focus on the dynamics of “loyalty trials” held to identify enemy collaborators—the interaction between expectations, perceptions, and behavior. We use our framework to explore the conditions under which trials result in widespread defection, as in the German Democratic Republic, or in conformity as illustrated by our study of the Occupied Palestinian Territories. The polarizing nature of loyalty trials and the propensity to over- or under-identify threats to political order have notable implications for democratic and non-democratic societies alike.
"忠诚审判 "是一系列冲突环境中的常见现象,其后果包括骚扰、监禁、酷刑或死亡。然而,在有关国家镇压、内战或叛军治理的研究中,"忠诚审判 "作为一种普遍现象却很少受到关注,这些研究主要关注当局用来审判人们的特定行为,如持不同政见者、叛逃者和抵抗者。利用计算模型和德意志民主共和国及巴勒斯坦被占领土的数据,我们重点研究了为识别敌方合作者而举行的 "忠诚审判 "的动态--期望、观念和行为之间的互动。我们利用我们的框架来探讨在哪些条件下审判会导致广泛的叛逃(如在德意志民主共和国),或导致服从(如我们对巴勒斯坦被占领土的研究所示)。忠诚审判的两极分化性质以及过度或过度识别政治秩序威胁的倾向对民主社会和非民主社会都有显著的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Plots, Attacks, and the Measurement of Terrorism 阴谋、袭击和对恐怖主义的衡量
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231221536
Thomas Hegghammer, Neil Ketchley
How should we measure terrorism? Political scientists typically use executed attacks as the dependent variable and test covariates to identify factors that produce terrorism. But attacks are an imperfect measure of terrorist activity because of ‘plot attrition’ — the tendency for plots to derail due to police intervention or other factors. We examine whether the exclusion of foiled plots from event datasets constitutes a measurement problem in terrorism studies. Building on recent advances in plot data collection, we study the correlation between plots and attacks and conduct an original analysis of jihadism in Europe. Our results suggest common research designs predicting terrorism can produce different results depending on whether incidents are operationalized as plots or attacks. Adjusting for state security capability does not solve the problem. Despite its limitations, plot data is a more complete measure of terrorist activity that should be incorporated, when available, in quantitative studies of terrorism.
我们应该如何衡量恐怖主义?政治学家通常使用已实施的袭击作为因变量,并测试协变量,以确定产生恐怖主义的因素。但是,由于 "阴谋损耗"--即由于警方干预或其他因素导致阴谋脱轨的趋势,袭击并不能完美地衡量恐怖主义活动。我们研究了事件数据集中未包括挫败的阴谋是否构成恐怖主义研究中的测量问题。基于最近在阴谋数据收集方面取得的进展,我们研究了阴谋与袭击之间的相关性,并对欧洲的圣战主义进行了原创性分析。我们的研究结果表明,预测恐怖主义的常见研究设计会产生不同的结果,这取决于将事件操作化为阴谋还是袭击。调整国家安全能力并不能解决问题。尽管情节数据有其局限性,但它是衡量恐怖主义活动的一个更全面的指标,在有条件的情况下,应将其纳入恐怖主义的定量研究中。
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引用次数: 0
Of One’s Own Making: Leadership Legitimation Strategy and Human Rights 自己创造:领导合法性战略与人权
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231220006
Stephen Bagwell, Matthew Rains, Meridith LaVelle
Why do states and their agents abuse citizens? Traditional explanations focus on contentious politics, the presence of institutions, and international pressures. Despite this, accounts dissecting the state and its agents in this context of abuse remain largely theoretic in nature. This article offers a breakthrough for within-the-state accounts of human rights abuses by focusing on state leaders and their relationship to broader government institutions and function. We posit that personalist leaders have fundamentally different relationship with institutions that foster human rights respect, arguing that leaders relying on their own merits and qualities are less likely to either activate or manipulate institutions of accountability for human rights abuses. Using data from 1991 to 2019, we show that the presence of leaders legitimizing themselves within personalist framing can worsen human rights conditions.
为什么国家及其代理人会虐待公民?传统的解释主要集中在有争议的政治、制度的存在以及国际压力等方面。尽管如此,在这种侵犯人权的背景下,对国家及其代理人的剖析仍主要停留在理论层面。本文通过关注国家领导人及其与更广泛的政府机构和职能之间的关系,为国家内部对侵犯人权行为的解释提供了一个突破口。我们认为,个人主义领导人与促进尊重人权的机构之间有着根本不同的关系,认为领导人依靠自身的优点和素质不太可能激活或操纵侵犯人权的问责机构。通过使用 1991 年至 2019 年的数据,我们发现,如果领导人在个人主义框架内使自己合法化,那么人权状况就会恶化。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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