Pub Date : 2025-06-25DOI: 10.1177/00220027251355698
{"title":"Erratum to “Disaggregating Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty”","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/00220027251355698","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251355698","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"289 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144796942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-21DOI: 10.1177/00220027251353772
Kaderi Bukari, Ore Koren
This study investigates how an insurgency in one state can intensify social conflict in a bordering state, focusing on the 2015 Burkina Faso insurgency and its impacts on northern Ghana. Building on past research, we theorize four pathways that can link insurgency to social conflict across the border. We use a mixed-methods approach, combining synthetic control models, fixed-effects panel data analyses, and extensive fieldwork across multiple communities, and find clear support for two pathways: insurgents using Ghana as a place for obtaining resources and diverted security forces creating vacuums exploited by bandits. The findings show that research and policy should consider more the interaction across multiple types of violence and varied geopolitical spaces in other susceptible world regions.
{"title":"Insurgency, Border Contiguity, and Social Conflict in Neighbor Countries","authors":"Kaderi Bukari, Ore Koren","doi":"10.1177/00220027251353772","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251353772","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates how an insurgency in one state can intensify social conflict in a bordering state, focusing on the 2015 Burkina Faso insurgency and its impacts on northern Ghana. Building on past research, we theorize four pathways that can link insurgency to social conflict across the border. We use a mixed-methods approach, combining synthetic control models, fixed-effects panel data analyses, and extensive fieldwork across multiple communities, and find clear support for two pathways: insurgents using Ghana as a place for obtaining resources and diverted security forces creating vacuums exploited by bandits. The findings show that research and policy should consider more the interaction across multiple types of violence and varied geopolitical spaces in other susceptible world regions.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144334899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-06DOI: 10.1177/00220027251346912
Wangyin Zhao
Understanding how natural disasters impact ongoing civil wars is increasingly important as more extreme weather events are expected due to climate change. Existing literature suggests that there is substantial unexplained variation in the consequences of natural disasters for conflict. I present a theoretical model, which provides insights into how the pre-disaster spatial configuration of territorial control can moderate the impact of natural disasters on conflict dynamics. Investigating these insights empirically, I introduce a new measure of natural disasters based on precipitation data, which improves geographical precision and mitigates endogeneity concerns in existing literature. Using the ongoing civil war between the New People’s Army (NPA) and the Philippine government as a testing ground, results show that the impact of natural disasters on both shifts in territorial control and battle-related violence varies by the pre-disaster spatial configuration of territorial control.
{"title":"The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Ongoing Civil War: The Role of Spatial Configuration of Territorial Control","authors":"Wangyin Zhao","doi":"10.1177/00220027251346912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251346912","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding how natural disasters impact ongoing civil wars is increasingly important as more extreme weather events are expected due to climate change. Existing literature suggests that there is substantial unexplained variation in the consequences of natural disasters for conflict. I present a theoretical model, which provides insights into how the pre-disaster spatial configuration of territorial control can moderate the impact of natural disasters on conflict dynamics. Investigating these insights empirically, I introduce a new measure of natural disasters based on precipitation data, which improves geographical precision and mitigates endogeneity concerns in existing literature. Using the ongoing civil war between the New People’s Army (NPA) and the Philippine government as a testing ground, results show that the impact of natural disasters on both shifts in territorial control and battle-related violence varies by the pre-disaster spatial configuration of territorial control.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144236920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-05DOI: 10.1177/00220027251331887
Juan Federico Pino Uribe, Johanna Amaya-Panche, Nathalie Méndez Méndez, Andrés Casas Casas
This article examines the role of religiosity in shaping people’s willingness to reconcile with ex-combatants in post-conflict societies, using Colombia as a case study. Drawing on LAPOP survey data from 2014 to 2018, the study employs linear and logistic regression models to reveal that individuals tend to be less willing to reconcile when they have high levels of religiosity (LAPOP 2004–2021). However, this relation can be mitigated by an individual’s level of political tolerance, which fosters greater openness to support reconciliation despite strong religious convictions.
{"title":"Religiosity, Political Tolerance, and Willingness to Reconcile in Post-conflict Contexts: Evidence From Colombia","authors":"Juan Federico Pino Uribe, Johanna Amaya-Panche, Nathalie Méndez Méndez, Andrés Casas Casas","doi":"10.1177/00220027251331887","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251331887","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the role of religiosity in shaping people’s willingness to reconcile with ex-combatants in post-conflict societies, using Colombia as a case study. Drawing on LAPOP survey data from 2014 to 2018, the study employs linear and logistic regression models to reveal that individuals tend to be less willing to reconcile when they have high levels of religiosity (LAPOP 2004–2021). However, this relation can be mitigated by an individual’s level of political tolerance, which fosters greater openness to support reconciliation despite strong religious convictions.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-06-04DOI: 10.1177/00220027251348389
Marianne Dahl, Mauricio Rivera Celestino, Scott Gates
Extant research posits that nonviolent campaigns increase security force defection during dissent, thereby improving their success rates over violent campaigns. Yet empirical evidence remains limited and mixed. We argue that this is partly due to overly aggregated measures of disloyalty that mask important variation. To address this, we disaggregate security force disloyalty both theoretically and empirically. We contend that nonviolent and violent strategies impose distinct costs on security forces—related to repression, fighting, and exit—which shape the likelihood of different forms of disloyalty. Our findings reveal that nonviolent campaigns are more likely to trigger large-scale loyalty shifts, but their effects are confined to specific types of disloyalty. Specifically, nonviolent strategies increase the likelihood of shirking, vocal support for opposition campaigns or criticism of the regime, and withdrawal of regime support. By contrast, desertion and side-switching are more likely during violent campaigns.
{"title":"Disaggregating Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty","authors":"Marianne Dahl, Mauricio Rivera Celestino, Scott Gates","doi":"10.1177/00220027251348389","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251348389","url":null,"abstract":"Extant research posits that nonviolent campaigns increase security force defection during dissent, thereby improving their success rates over violent campaigns. Yet empirical evidence remains limited and mixed. We argue that this is partly due to overly aggregated measures of disloyalty that mask important variation. To address this, we disaggregate security force disloyalty both theoretically and empirically. We contend that nonviolent and violent strategies impose distinct costs on security forces—related to repression, fighting, and exit—which shape the likelihood of different forms of disloyalty. Our findings reveal that nonviolent campaigns are more likely to trigger large-scale loyalty shifts, but their effects are confined to specific types of disloyalty. Specifically, nonviolent strategies increase the likelihood of shirking, vocal support for opposition campaigns or criticism of the regime, and withdrawal of regime support. By contrast, desertion and side-switching are more likely during violent campaigns.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"331 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-23DOI: 10.1177/00220027251343836
Andreas Juon
When does the accommodation of subordinate ethnic groups generate a backlash from the politically dominant group? I argue that power-sharing, regional autonomy, and multiculturalism lend themselves to the articulation of grievances and fears among members of dominant groups, especially if they explicitly recognize subordinate groups’ collective identities. In turn, nationalist parties can exploit such sentiment to organize protests, incite violence, and increase their electoral prospects. To test these arguments, I combine new monthly data on ethnic accommodation in 125 multi-ethnic electoral regimes between 1990 and 2018 with information on dominant group mobilization in anti-government protests and communal violence. I find systematic increases in dominant group mobilization around times when group-based accommodation is first introduced or expanded. These results enhance our understanding of mass mobilization by dominant ethnic groups. Moreover, they point to concrete proposals to reap the benefits of ethnic accommodation while avoiding a potentially destabilizing backlash against it.
{"title":"Ethnic Accommodation and the Backlash From Dominant Groups","authors":"Andreas Juon","doi":"10.1177/00220027251343836","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251343836","url":null,"abstract":"When does the accommodation of subordinate ethnic groups generate a backlash from the politically dominant group? I argue that power-sharing, regional autonomy, and multiculturalism lend themselves to the articulation of grievances and fears among members of dominant groups, especially if they explicitly recognize subordinate groups’ collective identities. In turn, nationalist parties can exploit such sentiment to organize protests, incite violence, and increase their electoral prospects. To test these arguments, I combine new monthly data on ethnic accommodation in 125 multi-ethnic electoral regimes between 1990 and 2018 with information on dominant group mobilization in anti-government protests and communal violence. I find systematic increases in dominant group mobilization around times when group-based accommodation is first introduced or expanded. These results enhance our understanding of mass mobilization by dominant ethnic groups. Moreover, they point to concrete proposals to reap the benefits of ethnic accommodation while avoiding a potentially destabilizing backlash against it.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144133734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-16DOI: 10.1177/00220027251325877
Rachel Sweet
Conflict researchers face an unresolved dilemma: the underlying data are often unreliable. When it comes to covert relationships, killings, and illicit markets that organized violence entails, there are simply more incentives to alter information than to tell it straight. How confident can scholars be that on-the-ground events, rather than strategic or omitted information, drive research findings? Despite the evident need for accurate views into clandestine processes, existing work rarely applies systematic checks to verify the seeming “facts” of conflict. This article proposes a methodological toolkit to fill this gap. A first step develops systematic checks to report numerical credibility scores of source quality and corresponding error estimates. A second leverages data of varied strengths for distinct purposes: high-quality sources to triangulate facts and low-quality data to discern strategic images and mis/disinformation. The article tests these standards against major datasets and integrates the protocols into an interactive Data Evaluation Dashboard available for scholarly and policy use.
{"title":"Knowing What We Don’t: The Fundamental Problem of Data Quality in Conflict Research—and Methodological Solutions","authors":"Rachel Sweet","doi":"10.1177/00220027251325877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251325877","url":null,"abstract":"Conflict researchers face an unresolved dilemma: the underlying data are often unreliable. When it comes to covert relationships, killings, and illicit markets that organized violence entails, there are simply more incentives to alter information than to tell it straight. How confident can scholars be that on-the-ground events, rather than strategic or omitted information, drive research findings? Despite the evident need for accurate views into clandestine processes, existing work rarely applies systematic checks to verify the seeming “facts” of conflict. This article proposes a methodological toolkit to fill this gap. A first step develops systematic checks to report numerical credibility scores of source quality and corresponding error estimates. A second leverages data of varied strengths for distinct purposes: high-quality sources to triangulate facts and low-quality data to discern strategic images and mis/disinformation. The article tests these standards against major datasets and integrates the protocols into an interactive Data Evaluation Dashboard available for scholarly and policy use.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"96 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144067143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-14DOI: 10.1177/00220027251342144
Andrew Roskos-Ewoldsen, Morgan Ellithorpe, Brandon J Kinne
Reciprocity is a well-known influence on international cooperation. However, we lack an explanation for how reciprocity at the international level affects individual beliefs and attitudes. How do people interpret situations where countries return favors, or fail to? In this study, we present a micro-level explanation of reciprocity based on the theoretical framework of Unbounded Generalized Reciprocity, where reciprocity operates as an informational shortcut about the trustworthiness of others. In an experimental survey of US adults, we test the roles of exposure to between-country reciprocity, perceived similarity, and costliness on trust toward a counterpart country, using the context of cooperation during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that reciprocity, compared to a reciprocity violation, predicted significantly more trust, and this was not moderated by similarity or costliness. We interpret these results as supporting evidence that reciprocity, at the individual-level, acts as a heuristic tool for determining the trustworthiness of other countries.
{"title":"The Effect of Reciprocity on Trust: International Cooperation and COVID Aid","authors":"Andrew Roskos-Ewoldsen, Morgan Ellithorpe, Brandon J Kinne","doi":"10.1177/00220027251342144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251342144","url":null,"abstract":"Reciprocity is a well-known influence on international cooperation. However, we lack an explanation for how reciprocity at the international level affects individual beliefs and attitudes. How do people interpret situations where countries return favors, or fail to? In this study, we present a micro-level explanation of reciprocity based on the theoretical framework of Unbounded Generalized Reciprocity, where reciprocity operates as an informational shortcut about the trustworthiness of others. In an experimental survey of US adults, we test the roles of exposure to between-country reciprocity, perceived similarity, and costliness on trust toward a counterpart country, using the context of cooperation during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that reciprocity, compared to a reciprocity violation, predicted significantly more trust, and this was not moderated by similarity or costliness. We interpret these results as supporting evidence that reciprocity, at the individual-level, acts as a heuristic tool for determining the trustworthiness of other countries.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143945747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-10DOI: 10.1177/00220027251338841
David A. Peterson, Mirta Galesic, Ross A. Hammond
The formal end of a political conflict does not always create lasting peace, as interpersonal violence can persist for years or decades after large-scale hostility ends. A key question for policymakers and peace builders, then, is how interventions into situations of low social capital might resolve persistent interpersonal conflicts sustained through complex networks of interaction. Existing approaches to this question generally focus on the small-scale effects of interventions like peace education that seek to change the attitudes of a few individuals at a time. Less focus has been paid to how such programs could leverage social networks to have broader effects on society as a whole. This paper explores this scale effect by building a conceptual agent-based model of conflict resolution and cooperation to examine when new ideas introduced by peace builders might spread throughout a population. We find significant benefits to layering different kinds of programs on the same populations, with the goal of leveraging the structure of society to maximize intervention impact.
{"title":"A Model of Long-Term Conflict Resolution and Cooperation","authors":"David A. Peterson, Mirta Galesic, Ross A. Hammond","doi":"10.1177/00220027251338841","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251338841","url":null,"abstract":"The formal end of a political conflict does not always create lasting peace, as interpersonal violence can persist for years or decades after large-scale hostility ends. A key question for policymakers and peace builders, then, is how interventions into situations of low social capital might resolve persistent interpersonal conflicts sustained through complex networks of interaction. Existing approaches to this question generally focus on the small-scale effects of interventions like peace education that seek to change the attitudes of a few individuals at a time. Less focus has been paid to how such programs could leverage social networks to have broader effects on society as a whole. This paper explores this scale effect by building a conceptual agent-based model of conflict resolution and cooperation to examine when new ideas introduced by peace builders might spread throughout a population. We find significant benefits to layering different kinds of programs on the same populations, with the goal of leveraging the structure of society to maximize intervention impact.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"126 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143932548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-09DOI: 10.1177/00220027251329598
Danny Klinenberg
Why do people join domestic violent extremist organizations? This paper examines an understudied reason: organizational outreach. I study how the inflow of new members to the Oath Keepers, until recently America’s largest paramilitary organization, changes when the group’s leadership employs three tactics: showcasing their ideological zeal through armed standoffs with the government, membership discounts, and sports sponsorships. Using a variant of the synthetic control method, I find that standoffs increase new memberships by 150 percent, discounts increase new memberships by over 60 percent, and sports sponsorships decrease new memberships. Membership is less responsive in counties with higher income inequality, but more responsive in politically conservative counties. The findings provide new insights into ways extremist groups attract potential recruits.
{"title":"Selling Violent Extremism","authors":"Danny Klinenberg","doi":"10.1177/00220027251329598","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251329598","url":null,"abstract":"Why do people join domestic violent extremist organizations? This paper examines an understudied reason: organizational outreach. I study how the inflow of new members to the Oath Keepers, until recently America’s largest paramilitary organization, changes when the group’s leadership employs three tactics: showcasing their ideological zeal through armed standoffs with the government, membership discounts, and sports sponsorships. Using a variant of the synthetic control method, I find that standoffs increase new memberships by 150 percent, discounts increase new memberships by over 60 percent, and sports sponsorships <jats:italic>decrease</jats:italic> new memberships. Membership is less responsive in counties with higher income inequality, but more responsive in politically conservative counties. The findings provide new insights into ways extremist groups attract potential recruits.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143930774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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