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Measuring Arms: Introducing the Global Military Spending Dataset 衡量武器:介绍全球军事支出数据集
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-19 DOI: 10.1177/00220027241232964
Miriam Barnum, Christopher J. Fariss, Jonathan N. Markowitz, Gaea Morales
Military spending data measure key international relations concepts such as balancing, arms races, the distribution of power, and the severity of military burdens. Unfortunately, missing values and measurement error threaten the validity of existing findings. Addressing this challenge, we introduce the Global Military Spending Dataset (GMSD). GMSD collates new and existing expenditure variables from a comprehensive collection of sources, expands data coverage, and employs a latent variable model to estimate missing values and quantify measurement error. We validate the data and present new findings. First, correlations between economic surplus and military spending are currently higher than at any point in the last two-hundred years. Second, updating DiGiuseppe and Poast’s (2018) analysis, we find larger substantive effects. Specifically, we find that the (negative) effect of a democratic ally on military spending is three times larger, and the (positive) effect of an increase in GDP is five times larger than previously estimated.
军费开支数据可衡量关键的国际关系概念,如平衡、军备竞赛、权力分配和军事负担的严重程度。遗憾的是,缺失值和测量误差威胁着现有研究结果的有效性。为了应对这一挑战,我们推出了全球军事支出数据集(GMSD)。全球军事支出数据集从一个全面的来源收集整理了新的和现有的支出变量,扩大了数据覆盖范围,并采用潜变量模型来估计缺失值和量化测量误差。我们对数据进行了验证,并提出了新的发现。首先,目前经济盈余与军费开支之间的相关性高于过去两百年中的任何时期。其次,在更新 DiGiuseppe 和 Poast(2018 年)的分析后,我们发现了更大的实质性影响。具体来说,我们发现民主盟友对军费开支的(负面)影响是之前估计的三倍,而国内生产总值增加的(正面)影响是之前估计的五倍。
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引用次数: 0
What is in a Mandate? Introducing the UN Peace Mission Mandates Dataset. 委托书中有什么?介绍联合国和平使命授权数据集
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-03-02 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231159830
Sara Hellmüller, Xiang-Yun Rosalind Tan, Corinne Bara

UN peace missions are constantly evolving. Yet, we lack a detailed understanding of the shifting types and objectives of peace missions beyond broad categorizations that distinguish for instance between observer, traditional, multidimensional, and peace enforcement missions. To address this gap, we present the UN Peace Mission Mandates (UNPMM) dataset. With global coverage, 30 years of data between 1991 and 2020, a broad scope that includes peacekeeping and political missions, and information on 41 mandate tasks, the UNPMM represents one of the most detailed and up-to-date datasets on UN peace mission mandates. We use it to highlight how mission types, objectives, and specific tasks have changed since the end of the Cold War, and to analyze what factors influence the kind of missions the UN is willing to authorize. The descriptive statistics and empirical analysis reaffirm the need for a greater disaggregation of data on UN peace missions and their mandates.

联合国的和平使命在不断演变。然而,我们对和平特派团的类型和目标的变化缺乏详细的了解,超出了观察员特派团、传统特派团、多层面特派团和执行和平特派团之间的广泛分类。为了解决这一差距,我们提供了联合国和平特派团任务数据集。UNPMM覆盖全球,拥有1991年至2020年30年的数据,涵盖范围广泛,包括维和和政治任务,以及41项任务的信息,是联合国和平特派团任务最详细、最新的数据集之一。我们用它来强调自冷战结束以来任务类型、目标和具体任务的变化,并分析哪些因素影响联合国愿意授权的任务类型。描述性统计数据和实证分析重申,需要对联合国和平特派团及其任务的数据进行更多的分类。
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引用次数: 3
Civil-Military Relations and Domestic Terrorism 军民关系与国内恐怖主义
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-25 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231224022
G. Kiyani, Jeffrey Pickering, Mohsin Raza, Clayton Webb
Civil-military relations and terrorism are both extensively studied subjects. Their relationship has, however, yet to be examined. We maintain that public conflict between the civilian and the military leadership in a country and declining civil control over the armed forces may often precipitate a rise in domestic terror events. Civil-military conflict and reduced civilian control can lead to agency slack by the armed forces and ineffective counterterror policies. These phenomena are also associated with policies that exclude groups in society and generate grievances, leading some to turn to terror. In zero inflated negative binomial analyses of domestic terror events and two distinct indicators of civil-military tension, we find support for our contention. Terror incidents increase both when civil-military conflict rises and when civilian control decreases. Our results add to understanding of both the domestic consequences of civil-military tension and the types of influences that impact domestic terror.
军民关系和恐怖主义都是被广泛研究的课题。然而,它们之间的关系还有待研究。我们认为,一个国家军民领导层之间的公开冲突,以及文官对军队控制力的下降,往往会导致国内恐怖事件的增加。军民冲突和文官控制力下降会导致武装部队机构松懈和反恐政策无效。这些现象也与排斥社会群体的政策有关,这些政策会产生不满情绪,导致一些人转向恐怖活动。在对国内恐怖事件和军民关系紧张的两个不同指标进行的零膨胀负二项分析中,我们发现我们的论点得到了支持。当军民冲突加剧和平民控制力下降时,恐怖事件都会增加。我们的研究结果加深了人们对军民关系紧张的国内后果以及影响国内恐怖事件的影响因素类型的理解。
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引用次数: 0
How Loyalty Trials Shape Allegiance to Political Order 忠诚审判如何塑造对政治秩序的忠诚
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-21 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231222004
Mirko Reul, Ravi Bhavnani
“Loyalty trials” are common to a range of conflict settings, with consequences that range from harassment to imprisonment, torture, or death. Yet, they have received little if any attention as a general phenomenon in studies of state repression, civil war, or rebel governance, which focus on particular behaviors that authorities use to put people on trial, such as dissent, defection, and resistance. Using a computational model and data on the German Democratic Republic and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, we focus on the dynamics of “loyalty trials” held to identify enemy collaborators—the interaction between expectations, perceptions, and behavior. We use our framework to explore the conditions under which trials result in widespread defection, as in the German Democratic Republic, or in conformity as illustrated by our study of the Occupied Palestinian Territories. The polarizing nature of loyalty trials and the propensity to over- or under-identify threats to political order have notable implications for democratic and non-democratic societies alike.
"忠诚审判 "是一系列冲突环境中的常见现象,其后果包括骚扰、监禁、酷刑或死亡。然而,在有关国家镇压、内战或叛军治理的研究中,"忠诚审判 "作为一种普遍现象却很少受到关注,这些研究主要关注当局用来审判人们的特定行为,如持不同政见者、叛逃者和抵抗者。利用计算模型和德意志民主共和国及巴勒斯坦被占领土的数据,我们重点研究了为识别敌方合作者而举行的 "忠诚审判 "的动态--期望、观念和行为之间的互动。我们利用我们的框架来探讨在哪些条件下审判会导致广泛的叛逃(如在德意志民主共和国),或导致服从(如我们对巴勒斯坦被占领土的研究所示)。忠诚审判的两极分化性质以及过度或过度识别政治秩序威胁的倾向对民主社会和非民主社会都有显著的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Plots, Attacks, and the Measurement of Terrorism 阴谋、袭击和对恐怖主义的衡量
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231221536
Thomas Hegghammer, Neil Ketchley
How should we measure terrorism? Political scientists typically use executed attacks as the dependent variable and test covariates to identify factors that produce terrorism. But attacks are an imperfect measure of terrorist activity because of ‘plot attrition’ — the tendency for plots to derail due to police intervention or other factors. We examine whether the exclusion of foiled plots from event datasets constitutes a measurement problem in terrorism studies. Building on recent advances in plot data collection, we study the correlation between plots and attacks and conduct an original analysis of jihadism in Europe. Our results suggest common research designs predicting terrorism can produce different results depending on whether incidents are operationalized as plots or attacks. Adjusting for state security capability does not solve the problem. Despite its limitations, plot data is a more complete measure of terrorist activity that should be incorporated, when available, in quantitative studies of terrorism.
我们应该如何衡量恐怖主义?政治学家通常使用已实施的袭击作为因变量,并测试协变量,以确定产生恐怖主义的因素。但是,由于 "阴谋损耗"--即由于警方干预或其他因素导致阴谋脱轨的趋势,袭击并不能完美地衡量恐怖主义活动。我们研究了事件数据集中未包括挫败的阴谋是否构成恐怖主义研究中的测量问题。基于最近在阴谋数据收集方面取得的进展,我们研究了阴谋与袭击之间的相关性,并对欧洲的圣战主义进行了原创性分析。我们的研究结果表明,预测恐怖主义的常见研究设计会产生不同的结果,这取决于将事件操作化为阴谋还是袭击。调整国家安全能力并不能解决问题。尽管情节数据有其局限性,但它是衡量恐怖主义活动的一个更全面的指标,在有条件的情况下,应将其纳入恐怖主义的定量研究中。
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引用次数: 0
Of One’s Own Making: Leadership Legitimation Strategy and Human Rights 自己创造:领导合法性战略与人权
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231220006
Stephen Bagwell, Matthew Rains, Meridith LaVelle
Why do states and their agents abuse citizens? Traditional explanations focus on contentious politics, the presence of institutions, and international pressures. Despite this, accounts dissecting the state and its agents in this context of abuse remain largely theoretic in nature. This article offers a breakthrough for within-the-state accounts of human rights abuses by focusing on state leaders and their relationship to broader government institutions and function. We posit that personalist leaders have fundamentally different relationship with institutions that foster human rights respect, arguing that leaders relying on their own merits and qualities are less likely to either activate or manipulate institutions of accountability for human rights abuses. Using data from 1991 to 2019, we show that the presence of leaders legitimizing themselves within personalist framing can worsen human rights conditions.
为什么国家及其代理人会虐待公民?传统的解释主要集中在有争议的政治、制度的存在以及国际压力等方面。尽管如此,在这种侵犯人权的背景下,对国家及其代理人的剖析仍主要停留在理论层面。本文通过关注国家领导人及其与更广泛的政府机构和职能之间的关系,为国家内部对侵犯人权行为的解释提供了一个突破口。我们认为,个人主义领导人与促进尊重人权的机构之间有着根本不同的关系,认为领导人依靠自身的优点和素质不太可能激活或操纵侵犯人权的问责机构。通过使用 1991 年至 2019 年的数据,我们发现,如果领导人在个人主义框架内使自己合法化,那么人权状况就会恶化。
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引用次数: 0
Boys and Their Toys: Status Inconsistency in Non-democratic Regimes and the Import of Major Weapon Systems 男孩和他们的玩具非民主政权的地位不一致与主要武器系统的进口
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231220021
Richard A.I. Johnson, Aaron P. Shreve
Major weapon system imports are significant as they are useful for domestic and international security. However, states regularly imported weapons they want in addition to weapons they need. One explanation is that states import unnecessary weapons to gain status. We argue that states suffering from higher levels of negative status inconsistency (SI) import a greater proportion of status symbol weapons. To account for differing security motives, we also separate non-democratic regime types – strongman, junta, boss, and machine – as they vary in their international conflict propensity and domestic stability. Due to the differences across these regimes, we further argue that non-democratic personalist regimes will import more status symbol weapons. Using data covering 1965–1999, we find that negatively status inconsistent regimes import more status symbol weapons.
主要武器系统的进口意义重大,因为它们有助于国内和国际安全。然而,各国除了进口自己需要的武器外,还经常进口自己想要的武器。一种解释是,国家进口不必要的武器是为了获得地位。我们认为,负面地位不一致性(SI)程度较高的国家会进口更多象征地位的武器。为了解释不同的安全动机,我们还区分了非民主政权类型--强人、军政府、老大和机器--因为它们在国际冲突倾向和国内稳定性方面各不相同。由于这些政权之间存在差异,我们进一步认为,非民主个人主义政权将进口更多象征地位的武器。利用 1965-1999 年的数据,我们发现地位不一致的消极政权会进口更多象征地位的武器。
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引用次数: 0
Sacred Time and Religious Violence: Evidence from Hindu-Muslim Riots in India 神圣时间与宗教暴力:印度印度教-穆斯林骚乱的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-12-09 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231219985
Feyaad Allie
How and when can religious times become focal points for communal violence? In the context of Hindu-Muslim riots in India, I argue that incompatible ritual holidays where one religion’s rituals are at odds with another (e.g., sacrificing cows or engaging in processions with idolatry) help explain the positive effect of sacred time on religious rioting. Holidays with incompatible rituals provide doctrinal differences that make riots more likely. These types of holidays can be used by riot entrepreneurs to incite violence or can independently raise an individual’s willingness to engage in violence. I provide support for this argument by analyzing data on Hindu-Muslim riots across 100 years. I investigate the mechanisms through additional analysis and examining historical and present-day cases of riots that occurred on holidays. By focusing on the content of religion, this paper demonstrates how particular religious holidays can provide the underlying conditions that elites use to incite religious violence.
宗教时代如何以及何时会成为群体暴力的焦点?在印度印度教-穆斯林骚乱的背景下,我认为不相容的仪式节日,一种宗教的仪式与另一种宗教的仪式不一致(例如,献祭牛或参加偶像崇拜的游行)有助于解释神圣时间对宗教骚乱的积极影响。宗教仪式不相容的节日提供了教义上的差异,使骚乱更有可能发生。这些类型的假期可以被骚乱企业家用来煽动暴力,或者可以独立地提高个人参与暴力的意愿。我通过分析100年来印度教徒-穆斯林暴乱的数据来支持这一观点。我通过额外的分析和检查历史上和现在在假期发生的骚乱案例来调查这些机制。通过对宗教内容的关注,本文论证了特定的宗教节日如何为精英们煽动宗教暴力提供了潜在的条件。
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引用次数: 0
What They Are Fighting For – Introducing the UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset 他们为何而战--UCDP 冲突问题数据集介绍
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231218633
Johan Brosché, Ralph Sundberg
Although conflict issues – the stated goals of actors engaged in conflict – hold a privileged position in many theoretical explanations of the occurrence, dynamics, and resolution of civil war, global issue data are scarce beyond datasets that focus on specific thematic areas. This article aims to bring issues into the forefront of civil war scholarship by presenting the UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset (CID). This global yearly dataset contains 14,832 conflict issues – divided, at the most disaggregated level, into 120 sub-categories – raised by armed non-state groups involved in intrastate armed conflict in 1989-2017. By bringing issues back in, the UCDP CID provides opportunities to reevaluate several central questions about the onset, duration, intensity, and resolution of civil war.
尽管冲突问题--参与冲突的行动者所宣称的目标--在许多关于内战的发生、动态和解决的理论解释中占有重要地位,但除了关注特定主题领域的数据集之外,全球问题数据非常稀少。本文旨在通过介绍 UCDP 冲突问题数据集 (CID),将问题引入内战学术研究的前沿。这一全球年度数据集包含 14832 个冲突问题--在最细分的层面上分为 120 个子类别--由 1989-2017 年卷入国内武装冲突的非国家武装团体提出。通过重新引入问题,UCDP CID 为重新评估有关内战爆发、持续时间、激烈程度和解决方式的几个核心问题提供了机会。
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引用次数: 0
The Enforcement of U.S. Economic Sanctions and Global De-risking Behavior 美国经济制裁的实施与全球去风险行为
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231214748
B. Early, Timothy M. Peterson
Evidence suggests that firms frequently over-comply with U.S. sanctions—a process also known as “de-risking.” We argue that U.S. enforcement of its economic sanctions has contributed to this phenomenon to the extent that we can observe a systematic relationship between U.S. sanctions enforcement and third-party trade with U.S. sanction targets. Specifically, we theorize that, the greater the frequency and severity of sanctions enforcement penalties imposed by the U.S. against sanctions violators, the more third-party trade with U.S. sanction targets will decline. Analyzing data from 2003 to 2015, we find that U.S. sanctions enforcement actions correlate with significant declines in dyadic trade between third-party states and U.S. sanctions targets, even when enforcement actions target parties external to that dyad. This suggests that the U.S.’s enforcement of its sanctions magnifies the harm that U.S. sanctions inflict on target economies.
有证据表明,企业经常过度遵守美国制裁--这一过程也被称为 "去风险化"。我们认为,美国对其经济制裁的执行助长了这一现象,因为我们可以观察到美国制裁的执行与第三方与美国制裁对象的贸易之间存在系统性关系。具体来说,我们的理论是,美国对违反制裁者实施制裁处罚的频率越高、力度越大,第三方与美国制裁对象的贸易就会下降得越多。通过分析 2003 年至 2015 年的数据,我们发现美国的制裁执法行动与第三方国家与美国制裁目标之间的双边贸易的显著下降相关,即使执法行动针对的是该双边之外的各方。这表明,美国实施制裁扩大了美国制裁对目标经济体造成的伤害。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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