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Journal of Conflict Resolution最新文献

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Civil War Settlements, Perceived Agreement Fairness, and Trust in Political Authorities: Investigating the Influence of Power Sharing on Public Opinion in Divided Societies 内战解决方案,感知协议公平和对政治当局的信任:调查分裂社会中权力分享对公众舆论的影响
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-19 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231202774
Caroline A. Hartzell, Matthew Hoddie, Douglas Page
Little is known about civil war settlements' effects on public opinion in countries emerging from conflict, cases in which beliefs in agreement fairness and trust in political authorities may influence acceptance of the peace process. We posit that settlements designed to redistribute power and resources will be perceived as fairer and produce larger improvements in trust in the national government for individuals from marginalized groups than for those from dominant groups. Employing original survey data collected in the Philippines, we test these propositions with reference to the country’s 2014 peace agreement. We find that marginalized Muslim groups perceive a fairer peace agreement and report improved trust in comparison to the dominant Christian community. Using a survey experiment to analyze the influence of power-redistributing settlement measures, we find that trust in the government is not significantly affected by information regarding power sharing, a result that holds for members of both communities.
内战解决方案对刚摆脱冲突的国家的公众舆论的影响知之甚少,在这种情况下,对协议公平的信念和对政治当局的信任可能影响对和平进程的接受程度。我们假设,旨在重新分配权力和资源的解决方案将被认为是更公平的,并且对来自边缘群体的个人比来自主导群体的个人对国家政府的信任产生更大的改善。我们利用在菲律宾收集的原始调查数据,参照该国2014年的和平协议来检验这些主张。我们发现,与占主导地位的基督教社区相比,被边缘化的穆斯林群体认为更公平的和平协议,并报告信任度有所提高。通过一项调查实验分析权力再分配解决措施的影响,我们发现权力分享信息对政府信任的影响不显著,这一结果对两个社区的成员都成立。
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引用次数: 0
The Social Origins of Rebellion: Toward a New Quantitative Research Agenda 反叛的社会起源:走向新的定量研究议程
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231202037
Ore Koren, Gary Uzonyi
Quantitative approaches to conflict research are evolving to incorporate better theoretical, methodical, and dataset tools. One key area where our progress is especially limited relates to the social origins of rebel groups: how a group’s political identity emerges as a focal point for mobilization and future conflict behaviors. We benchmark two key empirical agendas in civil war and rebellion research and then discuss key contributions of this special issue. In bringing together multiple theoretical perspectives and original datasets, including the individual-level and group-level data, the contributions to this special feature push the research frontier further along these lines. Jointly, they demonstrate that a rebel group’s origins – where it comes from, who are its constituents, what is its political appeal, and how it organizes – have far-reaching implications to explanations along different dimensions and across a wide range of contexts and regions.
冲突研究的定量方法正在发展,以纳入更好的理论、方法和数据集工具。我们的进展特别有限的一个关键领域与反叛团体的社会起源有关:一个团体的政治身份如何成为动员和未来冲突行为的焦点。我们将对内战和叛乱研究中的两个关键经验议程进行基准测试,然后讨论本特刊的主要贡献。在汇集多种理论观点和原始数据集,包括个人水平和群体水平的数据,这一特殊功能的贡献推动研究前沿进一步沿着这些路线。他们共同证明了一个反叛组织的起源——它来自哪里,谁是它的成员,它的政治吸引力是什么,它是如何组织的——对不同维度和广泛的背景和地区的解释具有深远的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Urban Origins of Rebellion 反叛的城市起源
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231202038
Gary Uzonyi, Ore Koren
The emphasis in recent decades on weak state capacity as an explanation of civil war detracts from an important fact: some of the deadliest and most protracted rebellions since WWII arose not where the state was weak, but rather in areas of significant state power. This study challenges the predominance-of-peripheral-conflict paradigm by disentangling rebel formation from civil war onset and emphasizing the urban origins of numerous rebel groups. Quantitative analyses show that three group types—military-, social interest-, and political party-based groups—are far more likely to form in large cities, especially the capital, and far less likely to form in the rural countryside. Case studies then illustrate the constraints and opportunities nascent rebel groups of each type face. This study advances the field’s understanding of a surprisingly large number of violent rebellions that current mainstream approaches and the emphasis on weak states and conflict opportunities cannot effectively explain.
近几十年来,将国家能力薄弱作为内战解释的强调忽略了一个重要事实:自二战以来,一些最致命、最持久的叛乱并非发生在国家力量薄弱的地方,而是发生在国家力量强大的地区。本研究通过将反叛组织的形成与内战的开始分开,并强调众多反叛组织的城市起源,挑战了外围冲突的优势范式。定量分析表明,三种组织类型——军事组织、社会利益组织和基于政党的组织——更有可能在大城市,尤其是首都形成,而在农村形成的可能性要小得多。然后,案例研究说明了每种类型的新生反叛团体所面临的限制和机会。这项研究促进了该领域对大量暴力叛乱的理解,而当前主流方法和对弱国和冲突机会的强调无法有效解释这些暴力叛乱。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of War Exposure on Morality: Evidence From the Battle of Mosul 战争暴露对道德的影响:来自摩苏尔战役的证据
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231200796
Jonathan Hall, Eric Skoog, Phaidon Vassiliou
The Battle of Mosul (2016–2017) was one of the most grueling urban warfare campaigns in recent memory. The fighting quickly concentrated in West Mosul, where civilians prevented by the Islamic State from leaving their homes experienced airstrikes and indiscriminate shelling by government forces. Utilizing the as-if-randomness of severe damage or destruction of people’s homes, this paper examines the impact of war exposure on the endorsement of moral foundations among a large and diverse sample of Mosul residents ( N = 1027). Home damage increased binding morality but had a larger impact on individualizing morality, heightening concerns about fairness and protection from harm. A survey experiment in which the sectarian identity of the target was randomly assigned further revealed a strong association between individualizing morality and parochial altruism. Challenging conventional wisdom, both individualizing and binding morality reinforce group cohesion in ways that are functionally adaptive and responsive to the damage wrought by war.
摩苏尔战役(2016-2017)是近年来最艰苦的城市战争之一。战斗很快集中在西摩苏尔,在那里,被伊斯兰国阻止离开家园的平民遭到了政府军的空袭和不分青红皂白的炮击。本文利用人们家园遭受严重破坏或破坏的近乎随机性,在摩苏尔居民(N = 1027)的大量不同样本中,研究了战争暴露对道德基础认可的影响。房屋损坏增加了约束性道德,但对个性化道德的影响更大,加剧了对公平和保护免受伤害的关注。在一项调查实验中,随机分配目标的宗派身份进一步揭示了个体化道德与狭隘利他主义之间的强烈联系。挑战传统智慧的是,个性化道德和约束性道德都能增强群体凝聚力,从而在功能上适应并响应战争造成的破坏。
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引用次数: 0
Just Patronage? Familiarity and the Diplomatic Value of Non-Career Ambassadors 只是赞助人?非职业大使的熟悉度与外交价值
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-29 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231198518
Michael A. Goldfien
Career diplomats have expertise. Why, then, do U.S. presidents appoint relative novices to key diplomatic posts? Conventional wisdom points to patronage. Yet this explanation overlooks the benefits of a diplomat’s familiarity with political superiors. Inherent in delegated diplomacy is uncertainty over diplomats' ability to “deliver” on understandings reached at the negotiating table. Non-career diplomats often speak more credibly for political superiors, creating an incentive for foreign counterparts to engage in diplomacy. I theorize a tradeoff between familiarity and expertise to generate empirically testable prediction. Counterintuitively, I expect that presidents often sacrifice professional expertise to delegate important diplomatic assignments to relative amateurs, even accounting for the patronage value of the post. I find empirical support for the argument using a novel dataset on U.S. ambassadorial appointments from the Reagan through Trump administrations.
职业外交官拥有专业知识。那么,为什么美国总统会任命相对新手担任关键外交职位呢?传统的智慧指向赞助。然而,这种解释忽略了外交官熟悉政治上司的好处。授权外交的本质是外交官“履行”谈判桌上达成的谅解的能力的不确定性。非职业外交官通常为政治上司说话更可信,从而激励外国同行参与外交活动。我在熟悉度和专业知识之间进行权衡,以产生经验上可测试的预测。与直觉相反,我预计总统经常牺牲专业知识,将重要的外交任务委托给相对业余的人,甚至考虑到该职位的赞助价值。我使用一个关于从里根政府到特朗普政府的美国大使任命的新数据集,找到了对这一论点的实证支持。
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引用次数: 1
Interstate Resource Conflicts: A Network-Centric Resource Access Security Perspective 州际资源冲突:以网络为中心的资源访问安全视角
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231181051
L. Bareis
This paper introduces the theoretical concept of perceived resource access security in order to assess the link between natural resource scarcity and interstate conflict. It develops the hypothesis that resource access through international trade is an important determinant for conflict behaviour of states arising from resource concerns, implying a shift in focus away from endowments and towards competition for access. The main analysis is conducted in the form of a unit fixed effects logistic regression covering country-dyads of the period 1962–2010 with military interstate dispute (MID) initiation as dependent variable. The empirical findings consistently demonstrate that a diversified position in resource supply networks mitigates the conflict propensity of states characterized by outside dependence for access to natural resources, and thereby help to determine conditions under which trade reduces conflict.
为了评估自然资源稀缺与国家间冲突之间的关系,本文引入了感知资源获取安全的理论概念。它提出了一种假设,即通过国际贸易获取资源是国家因资源问题而产生的冲突行为的一个重要决定因素,这意味着将重点从禀赋转向争夺获取资源。主要分析采用单位固定效应logistic回归的形式,以军事州际争端(MID)引发为因变量,覆盖1962-2010年期间的国家二元。实证研究结果一致表明,资源供应网络中的多元化地位减轻了依赖外部获取自然资源的国家的冲突倾向,从而有助于确定贸易减少冲突的条件。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Creativity Training on Inter-Group Conflict-Related Emotions 创造力训练对群体冲突相关情绪的影响
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231198517
Nardine Fahoum, H. Pick, S. Shamay-Tsoory
Negative emotions toward outgroup members are primary factors in maintaining and escalating inter-group conflicts. Building on studies showing that highly creative individuals exhibit fewer negative emotions toward outgroup members, we examined whether training creativity by means of divergent thinking tasks would reduce negative emotions toward outgroup members in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Experiment 1 examined the effectiveness of a 2-week creativity training program that entailed executing divergent thinking tasks. The results show that individuals trained to think creatively exhibited fewer negative emotions toward the outgroup compared to the control group. Experiment 2 examined the effects of a short creativity intervention and found that the intensity of negative emotions did not change immediately after carrying out divergent thinking tasks. These findings suggest that extended, but not short, creativity intervention may regulate negative emotions toward outgroup members, indicating that emotional change in the context of conflicts is possible only after repeated creativity training.
对外群体成员的负面情绪是维持和升级群体间冲突的主要因素。基于研究表明,高度创造性的个体对外群体成员表现出较少的负面情绪,我们研究了在巴以冲突的背景下,通过发散思维任务训练创造力是否会减少对外群体成员的负面情绪。实验1检验了为期两周的创造力训练计划的有效性,该计划包括执行发散性思维任务。结果表明,与对照组相比,接受创造性思维训练的个体对外群体表现出更少的负面情绪。实验2考察了短期创造力干预的效果,发现在进行发散性思维任务后,负面情绪的强度并没有立即改变。这些发现表明,长时间而非短时间的创造力干预可以调节对外群体成员的负面情绪,这表明冲突背景下的情绪变化只有在反复的创造力训练之后才有可能发生。
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引用次数: 0
Public Preferences for Intergroup Assistance in Conflicts Facing Joint External Threats: Lessons From COVID-19 in Israel 在面临共同外部威胁的冲突中,公众对团体间援助的偏好:以色列新冠肺炎的教训
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-25 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231198519
Liran Harsgor, Alon Yakter
With global changes, large-scale natural hazards are more frequent and intense, posing a particular challenge for groups in conflict. Do these shared external threats influence group willingness to cooperate and assist the adversary, and how? The literature suggests inconsistent expectations, from increased intergroup cooperation, to exacerbated animosity, to no discernable impact. We explore this question in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict amid the COVID-19 pandemic, a joint exogenous threat for both sides. Using multiple surveys and a conjoint experiment, we examine whether and how COVID-19 threat perceptions affected Jewish-Israeli preferences for collaborating with the Palestinians against the pandemic, including a novel exploration of concrete policy priorities. We find that greater COVID-19 threat perceptions have little effect on collaborative policy preferences, corroborating politics-as-usual arguments: support for out-group assistance, cooperation, and cost-sharing is polarized by ideological orientation. Our findings outline both constraints and opportunities for intergroup collaboration policies in conflicts facing joint outside challenges.
随着全球变化,大规模自然灾害更加频繁和强烈,对冲突中的群体构成了特别的挑战。这些共同的外部威胁是否会影响团队合作和协助对手的意愿,以及如何影响?文献表明,人们的期望不一致,从群体间合作的增加,到敌意的加剧,再到没有明显的影响。我们在新冠肺炎大流行期间的以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突中探讨了这个问题,这对双方来说都是一个共同的外部威胁。通过多项调查和联合实验,我们研究了新冠肺炎威胁认知是否以及如何影响犹太人与巴勒斯坦人合作抗击疫情的偏好,包括对具体政策优先事项的新探索。我们发现,更多的新冠肺炎威胁认知对合作政策偏好几乎没有影响,这证实了政治——通常的论点:对门诊援助、合作和成本分摊的支持因意识形态取向而两极分化。我们的研究结果概述了在面临共同外部挑战的冲突中,集团间合作政策的制约因素和机会。
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引用次数: 0
Following Orders or Following the Oath? Assessing Democratic Norm Endorsement Among Service Academy Cadets 遵从命令还是遵从誓言?军校学员对民主规范支持的评估
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-24 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195385
Risa A. Brooks, Michael A. Robinson, Heidi A. Urben
How strongly embraced within the officer corps is the commitment to supporting and defending the Constitution and to the ethic of nonpartisanship? This article answers that question through a 2019/2020 survey of 1,470 service academy students, including with a list experiment. The results show that cadets engage in what we term “selective endorsement” of norms, whereby they endorse norms as long as they are not in tension with their partisan identities. In particular, the list experiment reveals that when provided an opportunity to obscure their preferences, many cadets supported following civilian orders, even those at odds with democratic traditions—and that partisan dynamics may play a role in determining how they respond. The article has important implications for scholarly research on norm robustness and socialization, as well as practical consequences for civil-military relations in light of ongoing challenges to democracy in the United States today.
在军官队伍中,支持和捍卫宪法和无党派道德的承诺有多强烈?本文通过2019/2020年对1470名服务学院学生的调查,包括列表实验,回答了这个问题。结果表明,学员参与了我们所说的规范的“选择性支持”,只要他们不与他们的党派身份紧张,他们就会支持规范。尤其值得注意的是,名单实验显示,当有机会模糊他们的偏好时,许多学员支持服从文职命令,即使是那些与民主传统不一致的命令——党派动态可能在决定他们如何回应方面发挥了作用。这篇文章对规范稳健性和社会化的学术研究具有重要意义,也对当今美国民主面临的持续挑战对军民关系的实际影响具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Bureaucracy at the Border: The Fragmentation of United States Foreign Aid 边境官僚主义:美国对外援助的碎片化
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231198176
Shannon P. Carcelli
Foreign policy scholars often assume that leaders pursue a national interest. However, states often spread their foreign policy authority thinly across bureaucracies and programs with overlapping or conflicting interests. This is especially pronounced in foreign aid, which serves a clear foreign policy purpose but is often mired in bureaucracy. Why is foreign aid often so fragmented? Focusing on the United States, I explain foreign aid fragmentation as a byproduct of domestic politics. When moderate legislators are ideologically diffuse, leadership must persuade them to support a foreign aid agenda by offering pet projects. This increases aid’s fragmentation. In contrast, when moderates are relatively homogeneous, leaders can gather support through more traditional compromise, decreasing the need for fragmented pet projects. I test this theory using a mixed-methods approach, employing a novel agency-level dataset of US foreign aid appropriations and a case study of a 1992 act delivering aid to the former Soviet Union.
外交政策学者经常认为领导人追求国家利益。然而,国家往往在利益重叠或冲突的官僚机构和项目中分散其外交政策权力。这一点在对外援助中尤为明显,因为对外援助有着明确的外交政策目的,但往往陷入官僚主义的泥潭。为什么外国援助经常如此分散?以美国为中心,我将对外援助碎片化解释为国内政治的副产品。当温和派立法者在意识形态上分散时,领导层必须说服他们通过提供宠物项目来支持对外援助议程。这增加了援助的分散性。相比之下,当温和派相对同质时,领导人可以通过更传统的妥协来获得支持,从而减少对分散宠物项目的需求。我使用混合方法测试了这一理论,使用了一个新的美国对外援助拨款机构级数据集和1992年向前苏联提供援助法案的案例研究。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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