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Moving Through Conflict: Transit Migration and Rebel Capacity in Mali 穿越冲突:马里的过境移民和叛军能力
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231177587
Ole Sevrin Nydal
How do rebel organizations capitalize on transit migration? While numerous studies have examined the role of refugees, this article explores a broader yet significant category of mobile populations in civil conflict. Focusing on Mali, I argue that transit migration increases rebel capacity based on three causal mechanisms: Obstacles in transit, camping banditry, and dynamic recruitment. Obstacles are an enabling mechanism by facilitating the intersection between rebels and migrants. As camping bandits, rebels move between violent extortion and systematic exploitation depending on levels of competition. Finally, I argue that rebels recruit transit migrants using dynamic strategies, including coercive incentives and short-term contracts in which social and ideological requirements are relaxed. Combining quantitative analysis with original interview data, I find significant support for the causal argument and preliminary evidence for my conceptual framework. The findings improve our understanding of rebel organizations and the role of mobile populations in civil conflict.
反叛组织如何利用过境移民?尽管许多研究都考察了难民的作用,但本文探讨了国内冲突中流动人口的一个更广泛但重要的类别。以马里为重点,我认为过境移民增加了反叛分子的能力,这是基于三个因果机制:过境障碍、露营土匪和动态招募。障碍是一种有利机制,为反叛分子和移民之间的交叉提供便利。作为宿营土匪,反叛分子根据竞争水平在暴力勒索和系统剥削之间移动。最后,我认为反叛分子使用动态策略招募过境移民,包括强制性激励和放宽社会和意识形态要求的短期合同。将定量分析与原始访谈数据相结合,我发现因果论点得到了重要支持,我的概念框架也得到了初步证据。这些发现增进了我们对反叛组织和流动人口在国内冲突中的作用的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Income and Terrorism: Insights From Subnational Data 收入与恐怖主义:来自地方数据的见解
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231175071
Michael Jetter, Rafat Mahmood, David Stadelmann
This paper first introduces a theoretical formalization connecting a polity’s income level to terrorism. Our framework can accommodate different underlying assumptions about individual- and society-level grievances, yielding competing hypotheses. We then construct a panel database to study terrorism for 1527 subnational regions in 75 countries between 1970 and 2014. Results consistently imply an inverted U-shape that remains robust to incorporating a comprehensive set of region-level covariates, region- and time-fixed effects, as well as estimating an array of alternative specifications. The threat of terrorism systematically rises as low-income polities become richer, peaking at GDP/capita levels of ≈ US$12,800 (in constant 2005 PPP US$), but then falls consistently above that level. This pattern emerges for domestic and transnational terrorism alike. While peaks differ by perpetrator ideology, the inverted U shape also prevails across ideology-specific subsamples. In sum, alleviating poverty may first exacerbate terrorism, contrary to much of the proposed recipes advocated since 9/11.
本文首先介绍了将一个国家的收入水平与恐怖主义联系起来的理论形式化。我们的框架可以容纳关于个人和社会层面不满的不同潜在假设,从而产生相互竞争的假设。然后,我们构建了一个面板数据库来研究1970年至2014年间75个国家1527个次国家地区的恐怖主义。结果一致地暗示一个倒u形,对于纳入一组全面的区域水平协变量,区域和时间固定效应,以及估计一系列替代规范,仍然是稳健的。随着低收入国家变得更加富裕,恐怖主义威胁有系统地上升,达到人均GDP约12,800美元(按2005年购买力平价不变美元计算)的峰值,但随后持续下降至该水平以上。这种模式同样出现在国内和跨国恐怖主义中。虽然峰值因犯罪者的意识形态而异,但倒U形也普遍存在于意识形态特定的子样本中。总而言之,减轻贫困可能首先加剧恐怖主义,这与自9/11以来所提倡的许多建议方案相反。
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引用次数: 0
Armed Conflicts With Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State: The Role of Repression and State Capacity 与基地组织和伊斯兰国的武装冲突:镇压和国家能力的作用
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231176237
D. Krause
What explains the emergence of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State as parties in civil wars? This study provides the first large-N analysis of this question, studying a sample of states in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, 2003–2020, contributing to ongoing debates among peace and conflict scholars about jihadist rebels in civil war. Theoretically, it is argued that higher levels of state repression and states’ military capabilities should impact the preferences of local groups and increase the likelihood of a ‘transnationalization’. On the other hand, it is hypothesized that increases in bureaucratic state capacity should reduce the risk of such transnationalization. A series of penalized logistic regressions yield support for the hypotheses regarding state repression and bureaucratic capacity, but not military state capacity. The findings point towards the importance of bureaucratic capacity building as well as the potentially adverse consequences of excessively repressive counterterrorism strategies.
如何解释基地组织和伊斯兰国作为内战各方的出现?本研究首次对这一问题进行了大n分析,研究了2003-2020年非洲、中东和亚洲国家的样本,为和平与冲突学者关于内战中圣战叛乱分子的持续辩论做出了贡献。理论上,有人认为,更高水平的国家镇压和国家的军事能力应该影响当地群体的偏好,并增加“跨国化”的可能性。另一方面,有假设认为,官僚国家能力的增加应该会降低这种跨国化的风险。一系列惩罚逻辑回归支持关于国家镇压和官僚能力的假设,但不支持军事国家能力。调查结果指出了官僚能力建设的重要性,以及过度压制的反恐战略的潜在不利后果。
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引用次数: 0
The Militarized Interstate Confrontation Dataset, 1816-2014 军事化州际对抗数据集,1816-2014
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-05 DOI: 10.1177/00220027221104704
Douglas M. Gibler, Steven V. Miller
We use this article to introduce the Militarized Interstate Confrontation (MIC) dataset, 1816-2014—a new dataset for international conflict with a host of innovative features. The MIC data corrects thousands of errors in existing interstate conflict data and provides fatality ranges for all conflicts, with meaningful fatality estimates and no missing fatality values. Thus, the MIC data fixes missing data problems that have precluded researchers from analyzing escalation and related issues because of the lack of integrated conflict and war data. We also identify and distribute separate datasets for state-versus-citizen actions that are protest-dependent. These are attacks on shipping, fishing boats, and rebels, which were previously included in the data because the sovereign of those private citizens protested. We discuss our systematic search for new conflict cases and the 108 new conflicts we found, and we provide analyses and summaries that demonstrate the usefulness of our MIC data. Finally, we use our new data to create the first ever dataset of truly dyadic, directed dyad-year data, with highest actions and fatalities that vary appropriately within conflicts by both year and dyad. We believe these datasets will be useful for a host of studies but especially those interested in how conflicts evolve over time.
本文介绍了军事化州际对抗(MIC)数据集,1816-2014,这是一个具有许多创新特征的国际冲突新数据集。MIC数据纠正了现有国家间冲突数据中的数千个错误,并提供了所有冲突的死亡人数范围,有意义的死亡人数估计,没有遗漏的死亡人数值。因此,MIC数据修复了由于缺乏综合冲突和战争数据而使研究人员无法分析升级和相关问题的缺失数据问题。我们还为依赖于抗议的国家与公民行为识别和分发单独的数据集。这些是对船只、渔船和叛乱分子的袭击,以前被包括在数据中,因为这些私人公民的主权提出了抗议。我们讨论了我们对新冲突案例的系统搜索和我们发现的108个新冲突,并提供了分析和总结,以证明我们的MIC数据的有用性。最后,我们使用我们的新数据创建了第一个真正双元的、定向双年数据的数据集,其中冲突中最高的行动和死亡人数在年份和双年之间都有适当的变化。我们相信这些数据集将对许多研究有用,尤其是那些对冲突如何随时间演变感兴趣的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Do Proxies Provide Plausible Deniability? Evidence From Experiments on Three Surveys 代理是否提供合理的可否认性?三项调查的实验证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-05 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231170562
Scott Williamson
A purported advantage of secrecy in international politics is its ability to reduce pressures for conflict escalation by obscuring responsibility for hostile actions. Delegating these actions to proxies is one strategy states use to retain plausible deniability and limit escalation risks. Yet, proxies often have strong ties to sponsoring states, raising questions about their ability to influence blame and demands for retaliation. This paper tests these effects by analyzing American responses to hypothetical attacks by Chinese, Russian, and Iranian actors through experiments administered on three surveys. The results show that using proxies for these attacks modestly reduced how much Americans blamed the respective foreign governments, while also limiting demands that their senior leadership be sanctioned. However, the use of proxies did not affect Americans’ attitudes toward more forceful responses by the US government. These findings contribute to understanding of how proxies shape plausible deniability and escalation risks in international conflicts.
国际政治中所谓的保密优势是,它能够通过掩盖敌对行动的责任来减少冲突升级的压力。将这些行动委托给代理人是各州用来保持合理否认和限制升级风险的一种策略。然而,代理人往往与赞助国有着密切的联系,这引发了人们对他们影响指责和要求报复的能力的质疑。本文通过对三项调查进行的实验,分析了美国对中国、俄罗斯和伊朗行为者假想袭击的反应,从而检验了这些影响。结果显示,使用这些袭击的代理人适度减少了美国人对各自外国政府的指责,同时也限制了对其高级领导层进行制裁的要求。然而,代理人的使用并没有影响美国人对美国政府更有力回应的态度。这些发现有助于理解代理人如何在国际冲突中形成合理的否认和升级风险。
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引用次数: 0
Natural Experiments of the Rally 'Round the Flag Effects Using Worldwide Surveys 利用世界范围内的调查,对旗帜周围的集会效果进行自然实验
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231171310
TaeJun Seo, Yusaku Horiuchi
The “rally 'round the flag” effect—a short-term boost in a political leader’s popularity during an interstate political dispute—was first proposed by Mueller (1970) more than half a century ago. Ho...
半个多世纪前,穆勒(1970)首次提出了“团结在旗帜周围”效应——在州际政治争端期间政治领导人受欢迎程度的短期提升。何……
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引用次数: 0
Transatlantic Shakedown: Presidential Shaming and NATO Burden Sharing 跨大西洋稳定:总统羞辱与北约分担责任
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-21 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231167840
Jordan Becker, S. Kreps, Paul Poast, Rochelle Terman
Does “shaming” work in NATO? More precisely, does publicly using negative language criticizing allies’ defense spending improve burden-sharing, or is it counterproductive, leading to lower spending? We evaluate the effectiveness of public shaming language; specifically, whether it increases allies’ defense spending or whether other considerations like external threat, domestic budgets, economic growth, or unemployment rates are better predictors of contributions. Using an original dataset of presidential statements and NATO defense spending data disaggregated across the four categories tracked by the alliance, we conclude that negative language toward allies’ spending is at best ineffective and may even adversely affect burden-sharing in the long run. These findings have important implications for the political economy of alliances and both theories and policies on the use of rhetorical pressure to elicit compliance in asymmetric power relationships.
“羞辱”在北约有效吗?更准确地说,公开使用批评盟友国防开支的负面语言是否会改善负担分担,还是会适得其反,导致开支减少?我们评估了公开羞辱语言的有效性;具体来说,无论是增加盟友的国防开支,还是外部威胁、国内预算、经济增长或失业率等其他因素都是更好的捐款预测因素。使用总统声明的原始数据集和北约跟踪的四类国防开支数据,我们得出结论,对盟国开支的负面语言充其量是无效的,从长远来看,甚至可能对负担分担产生不利影响。这些发现对联盟的政治经济学以及在不对称权力关系中使用修辞压力来引发顺从的理论和政策都有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
The Long-Term Economic Legacies of Rebel Rule in Civil War: Micro Evidence From Colombia 内战中叛军统治的长期经济遗产:来自哥伦比亚的微观证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-20 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231170569
A. Ibáñez, A. Arjona, Julián Arteaga, J. Cárdenas, P. Justino
A growing literature has documented widespread variation in the extent to which insurgents provide public goods, collect taxes, and regulate civilian conduct. This paper offers what is, to our knowledge, the first study of the long-term economic legacies of rebel governance. This effect is theoretically unclear. Rebel governance may generate incentives for households to expand production and accumulate resources. However, rebel rule may be too unstable to maintain such incentives. We explore empirically the effect of rebel rule on households’ economic resilience using a longitudinal dataset for Colombia. Results show a positive relation between wartime rebel rule and the ability of households to cope with weather shocks in the post-war period. Households in regions where armed groups were present but exercised limited or no intervention fare worse. This effect is associated with infrastructure improvement led by armed groups, their intervention in dispute adjudication, and their close interactions with local populations.
越来越多的文献记录了叛乱分子在提供公共产品、征税和规范平民行为方面的广泛差异。据我们所知,这篇论文首次对反叛统治的长期经济遗产进行了研究。这种影响在理论上还不清楚。反政府治理可能会激励家庭扩大生产和积累资源。然而,叛军的统治可能太不稳定,无法维持这种激励。我们利用哥伦比亚的纵向数据集实证地探讨了反叛统治对家庭经济弹性的影响。结果显示,战时叛乱统治与战后家庭应对天气冲击的能力之间存在正相关关系。在有武装团体存在但干预有限或不干预的地区,家庭情况更糟。这种影响与武装团体领导的基础设施改善、他们对争端裁决的干预以及他们与当地居民的密切互动有关。
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引用次数: 3
The Shadow of Deterrence: Why Capable Actors Engage in Contests Short of War 威慑的阴影:为什么有能力的演员会参加没有战争的比赛
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-20 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231166345
J Andres Gannon, E. Gartzke, J. Lindsay, P. Schram
Defense policy makers have become increasingly concerned about conflict in the “gray zone” between peace and war. Such conflicts are often interpreted as cases of deterrence failures, as new technologies or tactics—from cyber operations to “little green men”—seem to increase the effectiveness of low-intensity aggression. However, gray zone conflict could also be a case of deterrence success, where challengers adopt a constrained form of aggression in response to a credible escalation threat. We develop a model that formalizes both scenarios and identifies distinct empirical patterns across the two cases. We use the model’s findings to empirically analyze Russian gray zone activity since the 1990s, finding that Russian activity appears, in part, to be restrained by NATO’s deterrent threat. Our model also shows that developing gray zone conflict capabilities can lead to more peace but could also backfire and provoke a challenger to escalate to war.
国防政策制定者越来越关注和平与战争之间“灰色地带”的冲突。这种冲突通常被解释为威慑失败的案例,因为新技术或战术——从网络行动到“小绿人”——似乎增加了低强度侵略的有效性。然而,灰色地带冲突也可能是威慑成功的一个例子,挑战者为了应对可信的升级威胁,采取了有限的侵略形式。我们开发了一个模型,将这两种情况形式化,并确定了两种情况下不同的经验模式。我们利用该模型的发现对俄罗斯自20世纪90年代以来的灰色地带活动进行了实证分析,发现俄罗斯的活动似乎在一定程度上受到北约威慑威胁的制约。我们的模型还表明,发展灰色地带冲突能力可以带来更多的和平,但也可能适得其反,促使挑战者升级为战争。
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引用次数: 1
Rebel Leader Age and the Outcomes of Civil Wars 叛军领袖的年龄和内战的结果
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-12 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231169260
Dan P. Silverman, Benjamin Acosta, Reyko Huang
What determines the outcomes of civil wars? Existing literature highlights numerous factors at the systemic, state, and organizational levels of analysis. Yet there is little research on the attributes of rebel leaders in shaping war outcomes despite ample theories of their importance in steering their organizations. This article focuses on rebel leaders’ age as one key driver of their behavior. Applying insights from developmental psychology to the context of armed rebellion, we argue that young rebel leaders are the most likely to suffer military defeats, middle-aged leaders to win military victories, and elderly ones to reach negotiated settlements. We use a mixed-methods strategy to substantiate our claims, combining case studies of George Washington and Yasser Arafat with new data from the Rebel Organization Leaders (ROLE) database. Our findings help advance the study of non-state violent leaders in world politics while illuminating neglected sources of risk and opportunity for peace practitioners.
是什么决定了内战的结果?现有文献强调了系统、状态和组织层面分析的许多因素。然而,尽管有大量理论表明叛军领导人在控制组织方面的重要性,但关于他们在塑造战争结果方面的特征的研究却很少。这篇文章关注的是叛军领导人的年龄是他们行为的一个关键驱动因素。将发展心理学的见解应用于武装叛乱的背景下,我们认为年轻的反叛领导人最有可能遭受军事失败,中年领导人最有可能赢得军事胜利,而老年人最有可能达成谈判解决方案。我们使用混合方法策略来证实我们的主张,将乔治·华盛顿和亚西尔·阿拉法特的案例研究与反叛组织领导人(ROLE)数据库的新数据相结合。我们的发现有助于推进对世界政治中非国家暴力领导人的研究,同时照亮了和平实践者被忽视的风险和机会的来源。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Conflict Resolution
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