Pub Date : 2025-11-18DOI: 10.1177/00220027251399888
Mehmet Erdem Arslan
Studies on the impacts of communication technologies on civil conflict often focus on the presence of cell phone networks and draw mixed conclusions. Meanwhile, communication technologies have been advancing and the nature of telecommunication has changed. I argue that the richness of information exchange marked by the introduction of 3G mobile technologies provides an opportunity to push the debate forward, by leading to an increase in the violence of insurgent groups in a high-intensity episode. I focus on Afghanistan as a tough test for my argument. Analysing the effect of introducing 3G network in existing 2G network areas using matched wake analysis and spatial models, I find that the introduction of 3G is associated with an increase in the number of violent events, IED attacks, and coordinated multiple attacks perpetrated by Afghan insurgents. The results are robust to different sizes of spatial units, placebo tests, and less likely to suffer from reporting bias.
{"title":"Did 3G Make Afghan Insurgents Fight More Effectively? A Disaggregated Study","authors":"Mehmet Erdem Arslan","doi":"10.1177/00220027251399888","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251399888","url":null,"abstract":"Studies on the impacts of communication technologies on civil conflict often focus on the presence of cell phone networks and draw mixed conclusions. Meanwhile, communication technologies have been advancing and the nature of telecommunication has changed. I argue that the richness of information exchange marked by the introduction of 3G mobile technologies provides an opportunity to push the debate forward, by leading to an increase in the violence of insurgent groups in a high-intensity episode. I focus on Afghanistan as a tough test for my argument. Analysing the effect of introducing 3G network in existing 2G network areas using matched wake analysis and spatial models, I find that the introduction of 3G is associated with an increase in the number of violent events, IED attacks, and coordinated multiple attacks perpetrated by Afghan insurgents. The results are robust to different sizes of spatial units, placebo tests, and less likely to suffer from reporting bias.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"157 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145545694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-11DOI: 10.1177/00220027251395066
Artem Kyzym
How do dictators successfully counterbalance (fragment their coercive apparatus) despite the significant risk of military retaliation? Drawing on recent insights that the timing of coup-proofing is essential to its success, I argue that dictators are more likely to increase counterbalancing efforts in the aftermath of failed coups. I test this proposition in a difference-in-differences framework, using novel data on coups and counterbalancing, and find a statistically significant effect of coup failure. I substantiate my analysis with two illustrative examples from Sierra Leone and Turkey that probe the plausibility of my theorized mechanism. My findings contribute to the growing literature on the effects of failed coups by opening up the discussion on their long-term structural consequences for the dictator’s security apparatus.
{"title":"Civil-Military Relations in the Aftermath of Coups: How Does Coup Failure Affect Counterbalancing in Autocratic Regimes?","authors":"Artem Kyzym","doi":"10.1177/00220027251395066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251395066","url":null,"abstract":"How do dictators successfully counterbalance (fragment their coercive apparatus) despite the significant risk of military retaliation? Drawing on recent insights that the timing of coup-proofing is essential to its success, I argue that dictators are more likely to increase counterbalancing efforts in the aftermath of failed coups. I test this proposition in a difference-in-differences framework, using novel data on coups and counterbalancing, and find a statistically significant effect of coup failure. I substantiate my analysis with two illustrative examples from Sierra Leone and Turkey that probe the plausibility of my theorized mechanism. My findings contribute to the growing literature on the effects of failed coups by opening up the discussion on their long-term structural consequences for the dictator’s security apparatus.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145485711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-11DOI: 10.1177/00220027251396035
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith
Based on an extension of selectorate theory, we characterize three structural conditions that make a coup likely: winning coalition size near the size that yields minimum utility to its members (so small or intermediate-sized coalitions), low economic productivity, and a leader relatively new to office. Policy misallocation exacerbates the risk of a coup. The theory and evidence show two mechanisms that increase the risk of coup: policy under-provision and over-provision. Leaders whose policy provisions are commensurate with expectations experience fewer coups. One anticipatory response of leaders to a heightened coup risk is to change the government’s institutions. High coup risks increase the likelihood of institution change whether a coup actually occurs or not. The threat of an under-provision coup tends to result in an expansion of the winning coalition size (democratization), while an elevated risk of an over-provision coup typically results in a contraction in coalition size whether a coup actually occurs or not.
{"title":"Coups: Different Mechanisms and Their Consequences for Institution Change","authors":"Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith","doi":"10.1177/00220027251396035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251396035","url":null,"abstract":"Based on an extension of selectorate theory, we characterize three structural conditions that make a coup likely: winning coalition size near the size that yields minimum utility to its members (so small or intermediate-sized coalitions), low economic productivity, and a leader relatively new to office. Policy misallocation exacerbates the risk of a coup. The theory and evidence show two mechanisms that increase the risk of coup: policy under-provision and over-provision. Leaders whose policy provisions are commensurate with expectations experience fewer coups. One anticipatory response of leaders to a heightened coup risk is to change the government’s institutions. High coup risks increase the likelihood of institution change whether a coup actually occurs or not. The threat of an under-provision coup tends to result in an expansion of the winning coalition size (democratization), while an elevated risk of an over-provision coup typically results in a contraction in coalition size whether a coup actually occurs or not.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145491813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-29DOI: 10.1177/00220027251388634
Scott Williamson
The United States gives substantial aid to the militaries of autocratic governments that abuse human rights. US officials claim this aid is necessary to manage security threats, but others argue the United States should prioritize aid for governments that reflect democratic values. How do these competing concerns shape Americans’ attitudes toward military aid? Through an experiment implemented on four surveys, I document a strong preference for aiding democracies that respect human rights, and this preference is robust to the presence of terrorism threats. However, internationalist Americans become especially less likely to prioritize democratic values when terrorist threats exist. Descriptive survey questions reinforce this pattern by showing how internationalists who support military aid the most are conflicted proponents of prioritizing democratic values in US foreign policy. The article extends research on attitudes toward foreign aid and illustrates an important limitation to the influence of democratic values on Americans’ foreign policy preferences.
{"title":"Who Gets the Guns? How Democratic Values and Security Threats Affect American Attitudes Toward Military Aid","authors":"Scott Williamson","doi":"10.1177/00220027251388634","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251388634","url":null,"abstract":"The United States gives substantial aid to the militaries of autocratic governments that abuse human rights. US officials claim this aid is necessary to manage security threats, but others argue the United States should prioritize aid for governments that reflect democratic values. How do these competing concerns shape Americans’ attitudes toward military aid? Through an experiment implemented on four surveys, I document a strong preference for aiding democracies that respect human rights, and this preference is robust to the presence of terrorism threats. However, internationalist Americans become especially less likely to prioritize democratic values when terrorist threats exist. Descriptive survey questions reinforce this pattern by showing how internationalists who support military aid the most are conflicted proponents of prioritizing democratic values in US foreign policy. The article extends research on attitudes toward foreign aid and illustrates an important limitation to the influence of democratic values on Americans’ foreign policy preferences.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145397383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1177/00220027251391176
Stephanie Wright, Ala Alrababah, Rachel Myrick
How do international endorsements of separatist movements by foreign powers impact popular views toward secession? Much literature on secessionist movements focuses on subnational bargaining between the government and separatist groups. However, these models often neglect international audiences, who offer endorsement and other forms of support for separatist groups. This paper demonstrates that when foreign powers take positions on secessionist activities, these actions can affect popular support for such movements. In a survey experiment conducted before Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we examine Ukrainians’ attitudes toward the Russian-backed separatist movement in the Donbas region. We randomize hypothetical scenarios in which foreign powers endorse secession and measure changes in public attitudes in both the parent state and the occupied territories under separatist control. Our results show that even in conflict-affected settings where attitudes have presumably hardened, international endorsements can influence popular support for secessionist movements.
{"title":"Permission to Secede? The Impact of Foreign Endorsements on Attitudes Toward Separatist Movements","authors":"Stephanie Wright, Ala Alrababah, Rachel Myrick","doi":"10.1177/00220027251391176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251391176","url":null,"abstract":"How do international endorsements of separatist movements by foreign powers impact popular views toward secession? Much literature on secessionist movements focuses on subnational bargaining between the government and separatist groups. However, these models often neglect international audiences, who offer endorsement and other forms of support for separatist groups. This paper demonstrates that when foreign powers take positions on secessionist activities, these actions can affect popular support for such movements. In a survey experiment conducted before Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we examine Ukrainians’ attitudes toward the Russian-backed separatist movement in the Donbas region. We randomize hypothetical scenarios in which foreign powers endorse secession and measure changes in public attitudes in both the parent state and the occupied territories under separatist control. Our results show that even in conflict-affected settings where attitudes have presumably hardened, international endorsements can influence popular support for secessionist movements.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145397385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-25DOI: 10.1177/00220027251390435
Christian Arnold, Carsten-Andreas Schulz
Uncertainty about other states’ willingness to cooperate often impedes collective action. Many multilateral agreements address this by incorporating Minimum Participation Rules (MPRs), which are provision-point mechanisms that specify the minimum coalition size required for a treaty to enter into force. Public and institutional choice theories suggest that such mechanisms lower barriers to participation by reducing coordination problems and limiting opportunities for freeriding. To test this assumption, we introduce a survival estimator to evaluate how the inclusion and design of MPRs impact treaty ratification across diverse issue areas. Drawing on data from agreements deposited with the United Nations Secretary-General, this study offers the first systematic analysis of MPRs in multilateral treaty cooperation. We find that threshold provisions accelerate ratification, even in contexts where incentives to freeride are unlikely to be significant.
{"title":"Reaching for the Threshold: How Minimum Participation Rules Facilitate Multilateral Treaty Ratification","authors":"Christian Arnold, Carsten-Andreas Schulz","doi":"10.1177/00220027251390435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251390435","url":null,"abstract":"Uncertainty about other states’ willingness to cooperate often impedes collective action. Many multilateral agreements address this by incorporating Minimum Participation Rules (MPRs), which are provision-point mechanisms that specify the minimum coalition size required for a treaty to enter into force. Public and institutional choice theories suggest that such mechanisms lower barriers to participation by reducing coordination problems and limiting opportunities for freeriding. To test this assumption, we introduce a survival estimator to evaluate how the inclusion and design of MPRs impact treaty ratification across diverse issue areas. Drawing on data from agreements deposited with the United Nations Secretary-General, this study offers the first systematic analysis of MPRs in multilateral treaty cooperation. We find that threshold provisions accelerate ratification, even in contexts where incentives to freeride are unlikely to be significant.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145397390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-17DOI: 10.1177/00220027251388601
Rabah Amir, Dominika Machowska, Jingwen Tian
This paper revisits the well-known volunteer’s dilemma on the production of a public good when a single participant is sufficient for the task. We propose a cost-sharing model with a volunteering cost that decreases exponentially in the number of volunteers. We show that, at the unique mixed-strategy equilibrium, the probability of production may increase in the number of players for sufficiently low volunteering costs. This provides an alternative account of the fit of the model with some political-military conflict situations: A larger group does erode the individual incentive to volunteer but in an offsetting way that favors the production of the public good. A second result is that the mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium may be more socially efficient than the pure-strategy Nash equilibrium for some parameter values, which is a major reversal with respect to the standard dilemma and many other coordination games.
{"title":"The Volunteer’s Dilemma with Cost Synergies","authors":"Rabah Amir, Dominika Machowska, Jingwen Tian","doi":"10.1177/00220027251388601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251388601","url":null,"abstract":"This paper revisits the well-known volunteer’s dilemma on the production of a public good when a single participant is sufficient for the task. We propose a cost-sharing model with a volunteering cost that decreases exponentially in the number of volunteers. We show that, at the unique mixed-strategy equilibrium, the probability of production may increase in the number of players for sufficiently low volunteering costs. This provides an alternative account of the fit of the model with some political-military conflict situations: A larger group does erode the individual incentive to volunteer but in an offsetting way that favors the production of the public good. A second result is that the mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium may be more socially efficient than the pure-strategy Nash equilibrium for some parameter values, which is a major reversal with respect to the standard dilemma and many other coordination games.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"101 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145311028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-04DOI: 10.1177/00220027251383563
Sam van Noort, Tanushree Goyal
Ethnic riots tend to occur in the same places over time. We study whether this serial correlation exists because ethnic riots tend to be self-perpetuating or because both past and future riots are caused by the same underlying factors that persist through time. To answer this question, we leverage the fact that the timing of major Hindu festivals in India is exogenously determined by the lunar calendar and that when a major Hindu festival happens to fall on a Friday—the principal day Muslims attend mosque—the likelihood of a Hindu-Muslim riot increases significantly. Using this instrument, we find that the well-documented serial correlation in Hindu-Muslim riots disappears entirely (T = 1950–2006). This suggests that the observed recurrence of riots is not driven by the riots themselves, but by underlying conditions that remain unaddressed. Once these confounding factors are accounted for, we find no “additional” effect of past riots on future riots.
{"title":"Is Ethnic Violence Self-Perpetuating? Quasi-Experimental Evidence From Hindu-Muslim Riots in India","authors":"Sam van Noort, Tanushree Goyal","doi":"10.1177/00220027251383563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251383563","url":null,"abstract":"Ethnic riots tend to occur in the same places over time. We study whether this serial correlation exists because ethnic riots tend to be self-perpetuating or because both past and future riots are caused by the same underlying factors that persist through time. To answer this question, we leverage the fact that the timing of major Hindu festivals in India is exogenously determined by the lunar calendar and that when a major Hindu festival happens to fall on a Friday—the principal day Muslims attend mosque—the likelihood of a Hindu-Muslim riot increases significantly. Using this instrument, we find that the well-documented serial correlation in Hindu-Muslim riots disappears entirely (T = 1950–2006). This suggests that the observed recurrence of riots is not driven by the riots themselves, but by underlying conditions that remain unaddressed. Once these confounding factors are accounted for, we find no “additional” effect of past riots on future riots.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145246402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-30DOI: 10.1177/00220027251383439
Gyu Sang Shim
Despite the link between resource wealth and conflict, some mining regions experience intense violence while others remain relatively peaceful. This paper argues that foreign ownership of mines restrains armed conflict near mining facilities. The potential for intervention by the home governments of foreign miners discourages rebel attacks. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design with georeferenced conflict and mining facility data from 1998 to 2010, the analysis shows a reduction in armed conflict following the entry of foreign miners. The military expenditure of the foreign miner’s home country further strengthens this restraining effect, highlighting the protective role of foreign ownership.
{"title":"Armed Conflict and the Location of Extractive Foreign Direct Investment","authors":"Gyu Sang Shim","doi":"10.1177/00220027251383439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251383439","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the link between resource wealth and conflict, some mining regions experience intense violence while others remain relatively peaceful. This paper argues that foreign ownership of mines restrains armed conflict near mining facilities. The potential for intervention by the home governments of foreign miners discourages rebel attacks. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design with georeferenced conflict and mining facility data from 1998 to 2010, the analysis shows a reduction in armed conflict following the entry of foreign miners. The military expenditure of the foreign miner’s home country further strengthens this restraining effect, highlighting the protective role of foreign ownership.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145254629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1177/00220027251386938
{"title":"Bruce Russett Award for Article of the Year in JCR for 2024","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/00220027251386938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251386938","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145183000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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