{"title":"The UN's Pact for the Future and the Declaration on Future Generations","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/padr.12707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12707","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142718383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Precocious exits from adolescence via early union formation are often argued to represent a strong risk factor for intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization. However, causal evidence for this claim is scant. This study examines the impact of teen union formation (before age 18) on experiences of IPV in Brazil and Colombia, where early family transitions are common and levels of interpersonal violence are high. Using data that allow instrumenting for teen union formation with age at menarche, results show that both Brazilian and Colombian women who start a co‐residential union before age 18 have a higher probability of experiencing psychological violence from partners. Early cohabitation is also linked to greater risk of past‐year sexual abuse among Black/Brown Brazilian women, and lifetime sexual IPV in Colombia, including among women who partnered once. Among testable potential pathways, age‐heterogamy (male partner being older) explains part of the results, but lower educational attainment among early cohabiting women emerges as a key driver in both countries. Education remains a powerful policy tool to confront both forms of gender‐based violence in South America.
{"title":"Teen Unions and Intimate Partner Violence in South America","authors":"ORSOLA TORRISI","doi":"10.1111/padr.12696","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12696","url":null,"abstract":"Precocious exits from adolescence via early union formation are often argued to represent a strong risk factor for intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization. However, causal evidence for this claim is scant. This study examines the impact of teen union formation (before age 18) on experiences of IPV in Brazil and Colombia, where early family transitions are common and levels of interpersonal violence are high. Using data that allow instrumenting for teen union formation with age at menarche, results show that both Brazilian and Colombian women who start a co‐residential union before age 18 have a higher probability of experiencing psychological violence from partners. Early cohabitation is also linked to greater risk of past‐year sexual abuse among Black/Brown Brazilian women, and lifetime sexual IPV in Colombia, including among women who partnered once. Among testable potential pathways, age‐heterogamy (male partner being older) explains part of the results, but lower educational attainment among early cohabiting women emerges as a key driver in both countries. Education remains a powerful policy tool to confront both forms of gender‐based violence in South America.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142718247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Emily Smith‐Greenaway, Abigail Weitzman, Eric Lungu
Despite declines in child mortality rates, experiencing a child death remains a common feature of motherhood in many contemporary African populations. Yet, we lack population insights into the consequences of child death for mothers’ well‐being in the high‐mortality regions where it concentrates. Contrasting an extensive psychology literature on the severe and long‐lasting consequences of child death for parents in low‐mortality settings, a long‐standing thesis in multiple social science literature is that the normativity of child death in high‐mortality settings can lead to a numbing effect—muting parents’ reactions to child loss. Yet, select anthropological accounts challenge this thesis, arguing instead that child death can also bear notable consequences for bereaved parents in communities where it is common. This study brings population data to bear, analyzing two representative samples of women in Balaka, Malawi, to examine if child death has measurable mental health consequences for mothers, including elevated and/or worsening depressive symptoms. Further, the study explores the potential influence of children's near‐death experiences on mothers. The results offer evidence that child loss—and the ever‐present threat of it—are underappreciated drivers of women's poor mental health, and overall well‐being.
{"title":"Child Death and Mothers’ Subsequent Mental Health in a High‐Mortality African Community","authors":"Emily Smith‐Greenaway, Abigail Weitzman, Eric Lungu","doi":"10.1111/padr.12682","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12682","url":null,"abstract":"Despite declines in child mortality rates, experiencing a child death remains a common feature of motherhood in many contemporary African populations. Yet, we lack population insights into the consequences of child death for mothers’ well‐being in the high‐mortality regions where it concentrates. Contrasting an extensive psychology literature on the severe and long‐lasting consequences of child death for parents in low‐mortality settings, a long‐standing thesis in multiple social science literature is that the normativity of child death in high‐mortality settings can lead to a numbing effect—muting parents’ reactions to child loss. Yet, select anthropological accounts challenge this thesis, arguing instead that child death can also bear notable consequences for bereaved parents in communities where it is common. This study brings population data to bear, analyzing two representative samples of women in Balaka, Malawi, to examine if child death has measurable mental health consequences for mothers, including elevated and/or worsening depressive symptoms. Further, the study explores the potential influence of children's near‐death experiences on mothers. The results offer evidence that child loss—and the ever‐present threat of it—are underappreciated drivers of women's poor mental health, and overall well‐being.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This essay explores and reviews the literature from low‐ and middle‐income countries on the pathways of influence between women's empowerment and reproductive outcomes, specially focusing on contraception, and points to some outstanding gaps. We adopt a framework that assesses the influence of contextual factors, notably kinship structures, and marriage systems, on women's empowerment and agency and other transformational factors affecting women's agency and gender roles and wielding direct and indirect influences on empowerment and contraceptive outcomes. The review of around 80 studies highlights that even after other factors are adjusted, women's agency has a strong influence on contraceptive outcomes. Contraceptive use levels are likely influenced by community‐level factors above and beyond individual‐level factors. Transformational factors, especially exogenous factors such as education and family planning programs, have independent and direct effects on contraceptive outcomes, at times even weakening or canceling out the effects of women's agency. Comprehensive contraceptive transition theory must reserve a central place for women's empowerment through agency and gender roles, particularly the ability of women and girls to make independent and free contraceptive choices. Relatedly, progress in contraceptive transition should be assessed according to not only contraceptive prevalence but also women's ability to use their preferred choice of methods for achieving reproductive rights.
{"title":"Revisiting Women's Empowerment and Contraception","authors":"Shireen J. Jejeebhoy, Zeba Sathar","doi":"10.1111/padr.12688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12688","url":null,"abstract":"This essay explores and reviews the literature from low‐ and middle‐income countries on the pathways of influence between women's empowerment and reproductive outcomes, specially focusing on contraception, and points to some outstanding gaps. We adopt a framework that assesses the influence of contextual factors, notably kinship structures, and marriage systems, on women's empowerment and agency and other transformational factors affecting women's agency and gender roles and wielding direct and indirect influences on empowerment and contraceptive outcomes. The review of around 80 studies highlights that even after other factors are adjusted, women's agency has a strong influence on contraceptive outcomes. Contraceptive use levels are likely influenced by community‐level factors above and beyond individual‐level factors. Transformational factors, especially exogenous factors such as education and family planning programs, have independent and direct effects on contraceptive outcomes, at times even weakening or canceling out the effects of women's agency. Comprehensive contraceptive transition theory must reserve a central place for women's empowerment through agency and gender roles, particularly the ability of women and girls to make independent and free contraceptive choices. Relatedly, progress in contraceptive transition should be assessed according to not only contraceptive prevalence but also women's ability to use their preferred choice of methods for achieving reproductive rights.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"128 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jasmine Trang Ha, Jack DeWaard, Guy Abel, Kazumi Tsuchiya, Jessie Pinchoff, Christopher Levesque, Kobie Price
Although the globalization of international migration is commonly accepted as a general tendency in contemporary migration patterns (de Haas, Castles, and Miller 2020, 9), the corresponding body of empirical evidence is mixed and fragmented. Our review of global migration patterns over the past half‐century highlights how the theories, expectations, and ultimately findings may vary depending on the specific definitions, vantage points, and measures being used. In this paper, we provide a simpler and integrated account of the globalization of international migration that includes a corresponding empirical template to quantify the relative importance of two processes at work: the intensity and connectivity of international migration. Using recent estimates of country‐to‐country migration flows every five years from 1990–1995 to 2015–2020, our analysis using demographic decomposition and group‐based multitrajectory modeling highlights the dynamic relationship between intensity and connectivity from both the global and country vantage points. Our work in this paper provides a starting point in the form of a much‐needed empirical template, one that is also highly flexible and customizable, for future research on the globalization of international migration to coalesce around and use going forward.
尽管国际移民全球化被普遍认为是当代移民模式中的一种普遍趋势（de Haas, Castles, and Miller 2020, 9），但相应的经验证据却良莠不齐、支离破碎。我们对过去半个世纪全球移民模式的回顾突出表明，理论、预期和最终结论可能会因使用的具体定义、视点和衡量标准而有所不同。在本文中，我们对国际移民全球化进行了更简单、更综合的阐述，其中包括一个相应的经验模板，用于量化两个起作用的过程的相对重要性：国际移民的强度和连通性。利用 1990-1995 年至 2015-2020 年期间每五年一次的国家间移民流的最新估算数据，我们采用人口分解和基于群体的多轨迹模型进行分析，从全球和国家两个视角强调了强度和连通性之间的动态关系。我们在本文中的工作提供了一个起点，即一个急需的实证模板，同时也是一个高度灵活和可定制的模板，供未来有关国际移民全球化的研究围绕其展开并加以利用。
{"title":"The Globalization of International Migration? A Conceptual and Data‐Driven Synthesis","authors":"Jasmine Trang Ha, Jack DeWaard, Guy Abel, Kazumi Tsuchiya, Jessie Pinchoff, Christopher Levesque, Kobie Price","doi":"10.1111/padr.12686","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12686","url":null,"abstract":"Although the globalization of international migration is commonly accepted as a general tendency in contemporary migration patterns (de Haas, Castles, and Miller 2020, 9), the corresponding body of empirical evidence is mixed and fragmented. Our review of global migration patterns over the past half‐century highlights how the theories, expectations, and ultimately findings may vary depending on the specific definitions, vantage points, and measures being used. In this paper, we provide a simpler and integrated account of the globalization of international migration that includes a corresponding empirical template to quantify the relative importance of two processes at work: the intensity and connectivity of international migration. Using recent estimates of country‐to‐country migration flows every five years from 1990–1995 to 2015–2020, our analysis using demographic decomposition and group‐based multitrajectory modeling highlights the dynamic relationship between intensity and connectivity from both the global and country vantage points. Our work in this paper provides a starting point in the form of a much‐needed empirical template, one that is also highly flexible and customizable, for future research on the globalization of international migration to coalesce around and use going forward.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142601926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Over the past half‐century, most countries have made progress through their demographic transitions with continuing declines in mortality and fertility. The major driver of fertility decline has been the adoption of contraception by women of reproductive age who increasingly desire smaller families. This paper documents the massive changes in contraceptive behavior that have occurred since 1970 at the global and regional levels and examines contraceptive use differentials by marital status and method. To understand the proximate causes of the rise in contraceptive use, we document the changes in the potential demand for contraception (among women who want to space or limit their childbearing) and the degree to which this potential demand is satisfied by the actual practice of contraception. The paper concludes with a confirmation of the strong inverse relationship between contraceptive use and fertility. The main sources of data for these analyses are comprehensive datasets with country, regional, and global estimates of historical trends in fertility and contraceptive behavior maintained by the Population Division of the United Nations.
{"title":"Contraceptive Change and Fertility Transition","authors":"Vladimíra Kantorová, John Bongaarts","doi":"10.1111/padr.12689","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12689","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past half‐century, most countries have made progress through their demographic transitions with continuing declines in mortality and fertility. The major driver of fertility decline has been the adoption of contraception by women of reproductive age who increasingly desire smaller families. This paper documents the massive changes in contraceptive behavior that have occurred since 1970 at the global and regional levels and examines contraceptive use differentials by marital status and method. To understand the proximate causes of the rise in contraceptive use, we document the changes in the potential demand for contraception (among women who want to space or limit their childbearing) and the degree to which this potential demand is satisfied by the actual practice of contraception. The paper concludes with a confirmation of the strong inverse relationship between contraceptive use and fertility. The main sources of data for these analyses are comprehensive datasets with country, regional, and global estimates of historical trends in fertility and contraceptive behavior maintained by the Population Division of the United Nations.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"119 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142596611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The UN projects that world population will peak at 10.3 billion in 2084, a 2.1 billion increase from 2024. Can the world provide food, water, and other resources to 10.3 billion people? How will additional population exacerbate resource challenges and worsen climate change? This paper analyzes these questions by looking at the last 60 years and by simulating the future impact of population growth and rising incomes on food, water, energy, and CO2 emissions. Looking back, food production has increased faster than the population in all regions, and we have not experienced significant shortages in nonrenewable resources. The history of water and CO2 emissions is less encouraging, however, with declining water levels in many aquifers and global warming threatening to undermine progress in all areas. Looking forward, population growth will be concentrated in poor countries, while rich countries, with higher consumption levels and emissions, will experience population decline. Population growth is projected to significantly increase demand for food and water in coming decades but is projected to have only modest impacts on energy and CO2, with population decline in high‐emission higher income countries more than offsetting the impact of population growth in low‐emission lower‐income countries.
{"title":"The Next 2 Billion: Can the World Support 10 Billion People?","authors":"David Lam","doi":"10.1111/padr.12685","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12685","url":null,"abstract":"The UN projects that world population will peak at 10.3 billion in 2084, a 2.1 billion increase from 2024. Can the world provide food, water, and other resources to 10.3 billion people? How will additional population exacerbate resource challenges and worsen climate change? This paper analyzes these questions by looking at the last 60 years and by simulating the future impact of population growth and rising incomes on food, water, energy, and CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emissions. Looking back, food production has increased faster than the population in all regions, and we have not experienced significant shortages in nonrenewable resources. The history of water and CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emissions is less encouraging, however, with declining water levels in many aquifers and global warming threatening to undermine progress in all areas. Looking forward, population growth will be concentrated in poor countries, while rich countries, with higher consumption levels and emissions, will experience population decline. Population growth is projected to significantly increase demand for food and water in coming decades but is projected to have only modest impacts on energy and CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub>, with population decline in high‐emission higher income countries more than offsetting the impact of population growth in low‐emission lower‐income countries.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"69 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142594717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Subnational divergence in the age and sex structures of populations can have far‐stretching consequences for development: from marriage markets to the potential for violence to economic growth. With urbanization and the demographic transition still underway, rural and urban populations continue to differ across low‐ and middle‐income countries. We examine the extent by which internal migration contributes to these differences, from 1970 to 2014 using estimates of migration between rural and urban sectors based on census data from 45 countries. We found that despite heavily delineated migration profiles by age and sex, internal migration does not alter sex and age structures of rural and urban populations. All the same, internal migration does increase urban growth in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. In contrast, in Africa, internal migration has little leverage with the urban transition. Across the continents, there is a potential for de‐urbanization, driven by a rural/urban gap in fertility. As such, the rural population may continue to constitute a significant proportion of national populations, necessitating critical investments to ensure they are not left behind.
{"title":"The Potential of Internal Migration to Shape Rural and Urban Populations Across Africa, Asia, and Latin America","authors":"Ashira Menashe‐Oren, Philippe Bocquier","doi":"10.1111/padr.12676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12676","url":null,"abstract":"Subnational divergence in the age and sex structures of populations can have far‐stretching consequences for development: from marriage markets to the potential for violence to economic growth. With urbanization and the demographic transition still underway, rural and urban populations continue to differ across low‐ and middle‐income countries. We examine the extent by which internal migration contributes to these differences, from 1970 to 2014 using estimates of migration between rural and urban sectors based on census data from 45 countries. We found that despite heavily delineated migration profiles by age and sex, internal migration does not alter sex and age structures of rural and urban populations. All the same, internal migration does increase urban growth in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. In contrast, in Africa, internal migration has little leverage with the urban transition. Across the continents, there is a potential for de‐urbanization, driven by a rural/urban gap in fertility. As such, the rural population may continue to constitute a significant proportion of national populations, necessitating critical investments to ensure they are not left behind.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jennifer Beam Dowd, Antonino Polizzi, Andrea M. Tilstra
Steady and significant improvements in life expectancy have been a bright spot for human progress for the last century or more. Recently, this success has shown signs of faltering in some high‐income countries, where mortality improvements have slowed or even reversed since the early 2010s. Combined with the large mortality shock of the COVID‐19 pandemic, guaranteed forward progress feels less certain. We review mortality trends in high‐income countries since 2000 through the COVID‐19 pandemic. While deteriorating mortality in the United States has received the most attention, countries including the United Kingdom, Canada, the Netherlands, Greece, and Germany are also seeing slowdowns. Before COVID‐19, these slowdowns largely reflected stalling improvements in cardiovascular disease mortality and increases in deaths from external causes in young and midlife for the worst‐performing countries. We discuss prospects for the future of mortality in high‐income countries, including lingering impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic, challenges and opportunities related to the obesity epidemic, and emerging reasons for both optimism and pessimism. While biological limits to increased life expectancy may eventually dominate long‐term trends, human‐made social factors are currently holding many countries back from already achievable best‐practice life expectancy and will be key to near‐term improvements.
{"title":"Progress Stalled? The Uncertain Future of Mortality in High‐Income Countries","authors":"Jennifer Beam Dowd, Antonino Polizzi, Andrea M. Tilstra","doi":"10.1111/padr.12687","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12687","url":null,"abstract":"Steady and significant improvements in life expectancy have been a bright spot for human progress for the last century or more. Recently, this success has shown signs of faltering in some high‐income countries, where mortality improvements have slowed or even reversed since the early 2010s. Combined with the large mortality shock of the COVID‐19 pandemic, guaranteed forward progress feels less certain. We review mortality trends in high‐income countries since 2000 through the COVID‐19 pandemic. While deteriorating mortality in the United States has received the most attention, countries including the United Kingdom, Canada, the Netherlands, Greece, and Germany are also seeing slowdowns. Before COVID‐19, these slowdowns largely reflected stalling improvements in cardiovascular disease mortality and increases in deaths from external causes in young and midlife for the worst‐performing countries. We discuss prospects for the future of mortality in high‐income countries, including lingering impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic, challenges and opportunities related to the obesity epidemic, and emerging reasons for both optimism and pessimism. While biological limits to increased life expectancy may eventually dominate long‐term trends, human‐made social factors are currently holding many countries back from already achievable best‐practice life expectancy and will be key to near‐term improvements.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stock estimates of the US unauthorized foreign‐born population are routinely published, but less is known about this population's dynamics. Using a series of residual estimates based on 2000 Census and 2001–2022 American Community Survey (ACS), I estimate the components of change for the unauthorized immigrant population from 2000 to 2022 by region and country of origin. Further, I develop and present novel measures of expected duration in unauthorized status and demographic impact of unauthorized entries (i.e., person‐years lived in unauthorized status). Results reveal dramatic changes over the last two decades. In the early 2000s, the unauthorized immigrant population was dominated by Mexicans who tended to remain in the United States for extended periods of time and whose demographic impact on the US population was substantial. After the 2007–2008 Great Recession, a new pattern emerged. Unauthorized migrants now arrive from across the globe, including Central America and Asia (up through 2018), and most recently from Europe, Africa, Canada, Venezuela, and other parts of South America. These new unauthorized immigrants are more likely to arrive on temporary nonimmigrant visas (which typically allow a foreigner to live and work in the United States for six years) and, with the exception of Venezuelans, spend less time in unauthorized status. Overall, the demographic impact of this new type of unauthorized migration is lower than it was two decades ago.
{"title":"Beyond Stocks and Surges: The Demographic Impact of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the United States","authors":"Jennifer Van Hook","doi":"10.1111/padr.12683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12683","url":null,"abstract":"Stock estimates of the US unauthorized foreign‐born population are routinely published, but less is known about this population's dynamics. Using a series of residual estimates based on 2000 Census and 2001–2022 American Community Survey (ACS), I estimate the components of change for the unauthorized immigrant population from 2000 to 2022 by region and country of origin. Further, I develop and present novel measures of expected duration in unauthorized status and demographic impact of unauthorized entries (i.e., person‐years lived in unauthorized status). Results reveal dramatic changes over the last two decades. In the early 2000s, the unauthorized immigrant population was dominated by Mexicans who tended to remain in the United States for extended periods of time and whose demographic impact on the US population was substantial. After the 2007–2008 Great Recession, a new pattern emerged. Unauthorized migrants now arrive from across the globe, including Central America and Asia (up through 2018), and most recently from Europe, Africa, Canada, Venezuela, and other parts of South America. These new unauthorized immigrants are more likely to arrive on temporary nonimmigrant visas (which typically allow a foreigner to live and work in the United States for six years) and, with the exception of Venezuelans, spend less time in unauthorized status. Overall, the demographic impact of this new type of unauthorized migration is lower than it was two decades ago.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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