European Journal of Political Economy最新文献

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Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability? 政府支出效率提高财政可持续性吗？

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102403

António Afonso, José Alves

We evaluate the impact of government spending efficiency on fiscal sustainability and fiscal reaction function coefficients for a panel of 35 OECD countries during the period of 2007–2020. To answer our research question, we first compute the magnitude of the responses of government revenues to changes in government spending as well as the coefficients of the cyclically adjusted primary balance as function of one-period lagged government debt. Next, we make use of so-called government spending efficiency scores, which efficiently indicate how governments can maintain their level of performance whilst using fewer inputs. Our results show that for the input efficiency scores obtained, countries’ fiscal balance and fiscal sustainability is directly improved by the use of less public resources, whilst maintaining the same level of output. In the cases of the output efficiency scores, the commitment of increased government outputs can lead to higher economic growth and the generation of additional government revenues, which also improves fiscal sustainability. Specifically, rationalising public expenditures without jeopardising the actual level of public goods and provision of services is a stronger determinant of fiscal sustainability, as well as for the improvement of the primary budget balance.

我们对2007-2020年期间35个经合组织国家的政府支出效率对财政可持续性和财政反应函数系数的影响进行了评估。为了回答我们的研究问题，我们首先计算了政府收入对政府支出变化的反应幅度，以及周期调整的基本平衡系数作为一期滞后政府债务的函数。接下来，我们利用所谓的政府支出效率分数，它有效地表明政府如何在使用更少投入的情况下保持其绩效水平。我们的研究结果表明，对于所获得的投入效率得分，在保持相同产出水平的情况下，使用更少的公共资源直接改善了国家的财政平衡和财政可持续性。在产出效率得分的情况下，增加政府产出的承诺可以导致更高的经济增长和产生额外的政府收入，这也改善了财政的可持续性。具体地说，在不损害公共产品和提供服务的实际水平的情况下使公共支出合理化，是财政可持续性以及改善初级预算平衡的一个更强有力的决定因素。

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引用次数: 0

Buy when there’s blood in the streets: How geopolitical adverse events can push defense stock returns to the extreme 血流成河时买进：地缘政治不利事件如何将防务类股的回报率推至极端

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102771

David Neto

In this paper, we address the controversial question of whether the defense sector can benefit from adverse geopolitical events. To this end, we employ the Tail Index Regression (TIR) methodology proposed by Wang and Tsai (2009) and recently extended by Nicolau et al. (2023) to assess whether adverse geopolitical events drive extreme right-tail returns for ten major European and U.S. defense companies. Our results show that such shocks significantly amplify positive returns, but only for a subset of firms specializing in high-demand segments such as combat aviation, land-based military systems, and cybersecurity. Moreover, we find that geopolitical acts exert a stronger influence than threats, and that the impact is persistent over time for certain companies. Overall, while our findings highlight the heterogeneous exposure of defense firms to geopolitical risk, they also suggest that defense stocks may serve as effective hedging instruments during periods of elevated geopolitical tension, offering valuable insights for both policymakers and investors.

在本文中，我们讨论了一个有争议的问题，即国防部门是否可以从不利的地缘政治事件中受益。为此，我们采用了尾指数回归（TIR）方法，该方法由Wang和Tsai（2009）提出，最近由Nicolau等人（2023）扩展，以评估不利的地缘政治事件是否驱动了十家主要欧美防务公司的极右尾回报。我们的研究结果表明，这种冲击显著放大了正回报，但仅适用于专门从事高需求领域（如作战航空、陆基军事系统和网络安全）的公司子集。此外，我们发现地缘政治行为的影响比威胁更大，而且对某些公司的影响会随着时间的推移而持续。总体而言，虽然我们的研究结果突出了国防公司对地缘政治风险的异质性暴露，但它们也表明，国防股可能在地缘政治紧张局势加剧期间作为有效的对冲工具，为政策制定者和投资者提供了有价值的见解。

引用次数: 0

Effects of IMF-supported programs on gender inequality 国际货币基金组织支持的项目对性别不平等的影响

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102740

Theo S. Eicher , Reina Kawai Eskimez , Monique Newiak

Macroeconomic volatility often entails policies that may disproportionately impact vulnerable populations. Some economies address weak economic fundamentals with IMF-supported reform programs, which have been shown to impact gender inequality. To accurately evaluate program effects, however, requires well-matched counterfactuals: How would gender disparities have evolved in the country in the absence of the program? We analyze 125 IMF-supported programs (1994–2022) using custom-tailored control groups that match each IMF-supported program country's gender/economic trends, including fiscal spending, debt, and reserves. For most countries, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that IMF-supported programs have no effect on gender inequality, as the observed gender outcomes were not statistically significantly different from those in controls with similar fiscal spending, debt, and reserves trajectories but no programs.

宏观经济波动往往导致可能对弱势群体产生不成比例影响的政策。一些经济体通过国际货币基金组织支持的改革方案来解决疲弱的经济基本面问题，这些方案已被证明会影响性别不平等。然而，要准确评估项目的效果，就需要充分匹配的反事实：如果没有这个项目，这个国家的性别差异会如何演变？我们分析了125个imf支持的项目（1994-2022年），使用了与每个imf支持项目国家的性别/经济趋势（包括财政支出、债务和储备）相匹配的定制对照组。对于大多数国家，我们不能拒绝imf支持的项目对性别不平等没有影响的零假设，因为观察到的性别结果与那些财政支出、债务和储备轨迹相似但没有项目的对照国家没有统计学上的显著差异。

引用次数: 0

Population aging, voting, and political agendas 人口老龄化、投票和政治议程

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102748

Francesco Barilari , Nicola Mastrorocco , Matteo Paradisi

We study how population aging interacts with voters’ representation, engagement with politics, and the content of political agendas. Leveraging the European Social Survey, we observe that over the past two decades, individuals under the age of 50 have become a minority within the voter population. This shift has been exacerbated by a decline in the turnout propensity of those under 50, juxtaposed with an increase among older age groups. The evolution of turnout propensity has unfolded gradually across cohorts: each successive cohort entering the eligible voter population has exhibited lower turnout rates compared to its predecessors and has failed to converge to previous levels throughout its lifecycle. The disengagement of younger workers has been more pronounced in countries that have aged faster. Moreover, these dynamics have coincided with a shift in the political agenda. Through an analysis of political manifestos, we demonstrate a switch towards topics appealing to older voters, notably retirement policies. Similarly to the case of turnout, this shift has been stronger in countries where the population has aged more.

我们研究人口老龄化如何与选民代表、政治参与和政治议程内容相互作用。利用欧洲社会调查，我们观察到，在过去二十年中，50岁以下的个人在选民人口中已成为少数。50岁以下人群的投票倾向有所下降，而年龄较大的人群的投票倾向有所增加，这加剧了这种转变。投票倾向的演变在各个群体中逐渐展开：每一个连续进入合格选民群体的群体，其投票率都比前一个群体低，而且在整个生命周期中未能趋同于前一个群体的水平。在老龄化速度更快的国家，年轻员工的离职现象更为明显。此外，这些动态与政治议程的转变同时发生。通过对政治宣言的分析，我们展示了向吸引老年选民的话题的转变，特别是退休政策。与投票率的情况类似，这种转变在人口老龄化程度更高的国家更为明显。

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引用次数: 0

The effects of population health on political risk 人口健康对政治风险的影响

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102773

Ayoko Charlotte D’almeida Mannko , Ludé Djam’angai , Eric Fina Kamani

Political risk is a significant barrier to sustainable economic development. Identifying factors that can help mitigate it is therefore essential. This study contributes to the literature by examining an often-overlooked yet important factor: population health. Specifically, we investigate whether improvements in population health can reduce political risk in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To this end, we use a new measure of health that accounts for both life expectancy and morbidity, allowing us to assess both the quality and length of life. Using panel data from 32 SSA countries (1991–2021), we find that better health conditions significantly reduce political risk. Moreover, we identify income per capita, financial development, and education as key transmission mechanisms, with education emerging as the primary channel. Extending the analysis to a global sample confirms the negative relationship between health and political risk, as well as the relevance of the identified transmission mechanisms. By highlighting the critical role of population health in reducing political risk, this study underscores that investing in population health is not only a moral duty but also a strategic necessity for sustainable economic development.

政治风险是经济可持续发展的重大障碍。因此，确定有助于减轻这种情况的因素至关重要。这项研究通过检查一个经常被忽视但重要的因素：人口健康，为文献做出了贡献。具体来说，我们调查了人口健康的改善是否可以降低撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）的政治风险。为此，我们使用了一种新的健康衡量标准，它既考虑了预期寿命，也考虑了发病率，使我们能够评估生命的质量和长度。使用来自32个SSA国家（1991-2021）的面板数据，我们发现更好的健康条件显著降低了政治风险。此外，我们确定了人均收入、金融发展和教育是主要的传导机制，其中教育成为主要渠道。将分析扩展到全球样本证实了健康与政治风险之间的负相关关系，以及所确定的传播机制的相关性。通过强调人口健康在减少政治风险方面的关键作用，本研究强调，投资于人口健康不仅是一项道德责任，也是可持续经济发展的战略需要。

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引用次数: 0

Stock returns of federal reserve officials 美联储官员的股票回报

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102739

Cody Couture , Abhiprerna Smit

This paper examines the trading behavior of members of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). First, we calculate the financial market returns of FOMC members relative to the overall market and examine if there is any evidence of abnormal returns. Second, we test whether FOMC members exhibit evidence of market timing around monetary policy announcements. We do not find any evidence that FOMC officials select securities that earn abnormal returns. However, our results regarding market timing are mixed. Though we do not find any evidence of security selection or portfolio rebalancing with respect to monetary policy decisions, we do find that stock sales by FOMC officials are typically succeeded by negative returns in the overall stock market.

本文考察了美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员的交易行为。首先，我们计算了FOMC成员相对于整体市场的金融市场回报，并检查是否有任何异常回报的证据。其次，我们测试联邦公开市场委员会成员是否在货币政策宣布前后表现出市场时机的证据。我们没有发现任何证据表明联邦公开市场委员会官员选择获得异常回报的证券。然而，我们关于市场时机的结果喜忧参半。虽然我们没有发现任何与货币政策决策相关的证券选择或投资组合再平衡的证据，但我们确实发现，联邦公开市场委员会官员出售股票后，整体股市通常会出现负回报。

引用次数: 0

Female political representation and budget forecast errors 女性政治代表性与预算预测误差

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102766

Marco Alberto De Benedetto , Pasquale Giacobbe , Andrea Mosca

This paper examines how female representation in municipal executive boards — the primary budgetary decision-making bodies in Italian local governments — affects both the accuracy and bias of budget forecasts. We exploit Law 56/2014, which mandated gender quotas in municipalities with more than 3000 residents, to identify causal effects. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that a one–percentage-point increase in the share of female aldermen reduces expenditure and revenue forecast errors by 0.5 and 0.4 percent, respectively, and systematically mitigates the prevailing optimistic bias in projections, particularly in pre-election years. Mechanism analyses highlight two main channels: (i) higher levels of technical competence and (ii) lower scope for political manipulation, with the strongest effects observed in social spending and in regions with weaker accountability.

本文考察了意大利地方政府的主要预算决策机构——市执行委员会中的女性代表如何影响预算预测的准确性和偏差。我们利用第56/2014号法律来确定因果关系，该法律规定在居民超过3000人的城市实行性别配额。使用工具变量方法，我们发现女性议员比例每增加1个百分点，支出和收入预测误差分别减少0.5%和0.4%，并系统地减轻了预测中普遍存在的乐观偏见，特别是在选举前的年份。机制分析强调了两个主要渠道：(i)更高水平的技术能力和（ii）更小的政治操纵范围，在社会支出和问责制较弱的地区观察到最强烈的影响。

引用次数: 0

Surfing the credit wave: Government popularity as driver of credit cycles 在信贷浪潮中冲浪:政府人气作为信贷周期的驱动者

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102456

Etienne Lepers

This paper analyses the interaction between credit and political cycles, arguing that short-termist governments will seek to ride and amplify credit cycles for political gains. Specifically, it tests for the existence of political credit cycles not only before elections but throughout the term when executives seek to bolster support in periods of popularity drops. Compiling a unique database on government approval from opinion polls in 57 countries starting in 1980 allows to test this accountability channel empirically. There is strong evidence that drops in government popularity are systematically associated with larger future private credit cycles. The existence of such political cycles appears to mainly target credit to households, increases the likelihood of bad credit booms, and is robust to multiple checks for confounding factors. This paper does not find similar cycles in public borrowing. In addition, a higher level of government debt and a decrease in fiscal spending appears to reduce the likelihood of such political cycles in private credit, which adds a new perspective on the interaction between private debt and fiscal policy.

本文分析了信贷和政治周期之间的相互作用，认为短期主义政府将寻求驾驭和放大信贷周期以获得政治利益。具体来说，它不仅在选举前测试政治信贷周期的存在，而且在整个任期内，当高管们在支持率下降期间寻求支持时，也会测试政治信贷周期的存在。从1980年开始，从57个国家的民意调查中编制了一个独特的政府批准数据库，可以从经验上检验这一问责渠道。有强有力的证据表明，政府支持率的下降与未来更大的私人信贷周期有系统的联系。这种政治周期的存在似乎主要针对家庭信贷，增加了不良信贷繁荣的可能性，并且对多种混杂因素的检查很有力。本文并未发现公共借贷存在类似的周期。此外，较高的政府债务水平和财政支出的减少似乎减少了私人信贷出现这种政治周期的可能性，这为私人债务和财政政策之间的相互作用提供了新的视角。

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引用次数: 0

Living to tell the tale: Europeans’ subjective well-being over autocratic and democratic times 活着讲故事：欧洲人在专制和民主时代的主观幸福感

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102774

Begoña Álvarez , Fernando Ramos-Palencia

How do individuals assess their past happiness in European countries that experienced dictatorships? Do these patterns differ from those observed in established Western democracies? This paper provides novel evidence on these questions using life-history data from older Europeans in fourteen countries that experienced prolonged authoritarian rule in Southern and Central-Eastern Europe. Relying on individuals’ recalled happiest period in life, we track the probability of experiencing peak happiness over the years 1945–2017. First, we estimate time trends in this probability across autocratic and democratic periods. Second, we adopt an event-study approach to compare these trends with those observed among individuals in long-standing Western European democracies. Our findings reveal that, excluding the first postwar decade, people are at least as likely—and often more likely—to recall years under autocratic rule, rather than democratic ones, as part of their happiest life period, especially in ex-communist countries. Earlier democratic transitions in the Iberian countries appear more gradual and less disruptive in terms of personal happiness than the collapse of communism. We also document that the timing of the happiest period in life differ markedly for residents in Western Europe and their counterparts living in countries with an autocratic past. Consistent with previous research, we document widening happiness gaps in Central and Eastern Europe relative to Western European countries from the early 1990s onward, despite substantial economic and political convergence.

在经历过独裁统治的欧洲国家，人们如何评价他们过去的幸福？这些模式与西方老牌民主国家观察到的不同吗？本文利用来自南欧和中东欧14个经历了长期专制统治的国家的欧洲老年人的生活史数据，为这些问题提供了新的证据。根据个人回忆的人生中最幸福的时期，我们追踪了1945年至2017年间经历幸福高峰的概率。首先，我们估计了专制和民主时期这一概率的时间趋势。其次，我们采用事件研究方法，将这些趋势与西欧长期民主国家中观察到的个人趋势进行比较。我们的研究结果表明，除了战后的第一个十年，尤其是在前共产主义国家，人们至少有可能——而且往往更有可能——回忆起专制统治下的岁月，而不是民主统治下的岁月，这是他们一生中最幸福的时期。就个人幸福感而言，伊比利亚国家早期的民主转型似乎比共产主义的崩溃更渐进，破坏性更小。我们还记录了生活在西欧的居民和生活在专制国家的居民的人生中最幸福时期的时间明显不同。与之前的研究一致，我们记录了自20世纪90年代初以来，中欧和东欧相对于西欧国家的幸福差距不断扩大，尽管经济和政治存在实质性的趋同。

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引用次数: 0

The political economy of government spending: Fiscal rules, sustainability, and political cycles 政府支出的政治经济学：财政规则、可持续性和政治周期

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102720

António Afonso, Jan-Egbert Sturm

引用次数: 0

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